Associations between mortality from COVID-19 and other causes: A state-level analysis

Impact of dementia on 30-, 180-, and 365-day mortality during the first pandemic wave in older adults seen in spanish emergency departments diagnosed with or without COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether dementia is an independent predictor of death after a hospital emergency department (ED) visit by older adults with or without a COVID-19 diagnosis during the first pandemic wave.

METHOD

We used data from the EDEN-Covid (Emergency Department and Elderly Needs during Covid) cohort formed by all patients ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs from March 30 to April 5, 2020. The association of prior history of dementia with mortality at 30, 180 and 365 d was evaluated in the overall sample and according to a COVID-19 or non COVID diagnosis.

RESULTS

We included 9,770 patients aged 78.7 ± 8.3 years, 51.1% men, 1513 (15.5%) subjects with prior history of dementia and 3055 (31.3%) with COVID-19 diagnosis. 1399 patients (14.3%) died at 30 d, 2008 (20.6%) at 180 days and 2456 (25.1%) at 365 d. The adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) for age, sex, comorbidity, disability and diagnosis for death associated with dementia were 1.16 (95% CI 1.01-1.34) at 30 d; 1.15 at 180 d (95% CI 1.03-1.30) and 1.19 at 365 d (95% CI 1.07-1.32), p < .001. In patients with COVID-19, the aHR were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.04-1.52) at 30 days; 1.29 at 180 d (95% CI: 1.09-1.53) and 1.35 at 365 d (95% CI: 1.15-1.58).

CONCLUSION

Dementia in older adults attending Spanish EDs during the first pandemic wave was independently associated with 30-, 180- and 365-day mortality. This impact was lower when adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity and disability, and was greater in patients diagnosed with COVID-19.

Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Immigrant mortality advantage in the United States during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US-born and foreign-born populations by race and Hispanic origin in the United States in 2020.

METHODS

Death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population data from CDC WONDER were used to estimate (1) age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 25+, 25-64, and 65+ in 2017-2019 and 2020 by nativity, race, Hispanic origin, and sex; (2) changes in mortality between these two periods; and (3) the cause-specific contributions to these changes.

RESULTS

Mortality increased in 2020 relative to 2017-2019 for all racial and Hispanic-origin groups. Adjusting for age, mortality increases were larger at ages 25+ among foreign-born males (390 deaths for 100,000 residents) and females (189) than among US-born males (223) and females (144). The large mortality rise among foreign-born Hispanic men (593) contributed to the narrowing of their mortality advantage relative to White men, from 426 to 134. An increase in mortality among both foreign-born and US-born Black males and females increased the Black-White mortality disparities by 318 for males and by 180 for females. Although COVID-19 mortality was the main driver of the increase among foreign-born residents, circulatory diseases and malignant neoplasms also contributed.

CONTRIBUTION

We show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on foreign-born populations than on their US-born counterparts. These findings highlight the need to address the underlying inequalities and unique challenges faced by foreign-born populations.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.