ACO Contracts With Downside Financial Risk Growing, But Still In The Minority

The mechanics of risk adjustment and incentives for coding intensity in Medicare

OBJECTIVE

To study diagnosis coding intensity across Medicare programs, and to examine the impacts of changes in the risk model adopted by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) for 2024.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING

Claims and encounter data from the CMS data warehouse for Traditional Medicare (TM) beneficiaries and Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees.

STUDY DESIGN

We created cohorts of MA enrollees, TM beneficiaries attributed to Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), and TM non-ACO beneficiaries. Using the 2019 Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) software from CMS, we computed HCC prevalence and scores from base records, then computed incremental prevalence and scores from health risk assessments (HRA) and chart review (CR) records.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We used CMS's 2019 random 20% sample of individuals and their 2018 diagnosis history, retaining those with 12 months of Parts A/B/D coverage in 2018.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Measured health risks for MA and TM ACO individuals were comparable in base records for propensity-score matched cohorts, while TM non-ACO beneficiaries had lower risk. Incremental health risk due to diagnoses in HRA records increased across coverage cohorts in line with incentives to maximize risk scores: +0.9% for TM non-ACO, +1.2% for TM ACO, and + 3.6% for MA. Including HRA and CR records, the MA risk scores increased by 9.8% in the matched cohort. We identify the HCC groups with the greatest sensitivity to these sources of coding intensity among MA enrollees, comparing those groups to the new model's areas of targeted change.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with previous literature, we find increased health risk in MA associated with HRA and CR records. We also demonstrate the meaningful impacts of HRAs on health risk measurement for TM coverage cohorts. CMS's model changes have the potential to reduce coding intensity, but they do not target the full scope of hierarchies sensitive to coding intensity.

Medicare accountable care organization characteristics associated with participation in 2-sided risk

PURPOSE

To examine the associations of accountable care organization (ACO) characteristics with the likelihood of participation in 2-sided risk tracks in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (SSP).

METHODS

CMS ACO Public Use Files and Provider-Level Research Identifiable Files were used to trace Medicare ACOs' participation in the SSP between 2012 and 2020 and measure ACO characteristics, including size, rurality of the service area, affiliation with supporting organizations, program experience, and performance. Logistic regression and survival analysis were used to test the associations between ACO characteristics and the probability of ACOs initially participating in or subsequently switching to 2-sided risk tracks.

FINDINGS

Among the 624 Medicare SSP ACOs that started between 2012 and 2017, 26 participated in 2-sided risk tracks in their initial contracts and 95 switched to 2-sided risk tracks subsequently. ACO characteristics were not significantly associated with the probability of participating in 2-sided risk tracks in initial contracts. ACO size, affiliation with supporting organizations, and performance were positively associated with the likelihood of switching to 2-sided risk. Rural ACOs were less likely to switch to 2-sided risk than their urban counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Small and rural ACOs are less prepared to transition into 2-sided risk swiftly.

Translating Evidence into Practice: ACOs' Use of Care Plans for Patients with Complex Health Needs

BACKGROUND

Care plans are an evidence-based strategy, encouraged by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and are used to manage the care of patients with complex health needs that have been shown to lead to lower hospital costs and improved patient outcomes. Providers participating in payment reform, such as accountable care organizations, may be more likely to adopt care plans to manage complex patients.

OBJECTIVE

To understand how Medicare accountable care organizations (ACOs) use care plans to manage patients with complex clinical needs.

DESIGN

A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with Medicare ACOs.

PARTICIPANTS

Thirty-nine interviews were conducted across 18 Medicare ACOs with executive-level leaders and associated clinical and managerial staff.

APPROACH

Development, structure, use, and management of care plans for complex patients at Medicare ACOs.

KEY RESULTS

Most (11) of the interviewed ACOs reported using care plans to manage care of complex patients. All care plans include information about patient history, current medical needs, and future care plans. Beyond the core elements, care plans included elements based on the ACO's planned use and level of staff and patient engagement with care planning. Most care plans were developed and maintained by care management (not clinical) staff.

CONCLUSIONS

ACOs are using care plans for patients with complex needs, but their use of care plans does not always meet the best practices. In many cases, ACO usage of care plans does not align with prescribed best practices: ACOs are adapting use of care plans to better fit the needs of patients and providers.

Proportion of Racial Minority Patients and Patients With Low Socioeconomic Status Cared for by Physician Groups After Joining Accountable Care Organizations

Importance

The incentive structure of accountable care organizations (ACOs) may lead to participating physician groups selecting fewer vulnerable patients.

Objective

To test for changes in the percentage of racial minority patients and patients with low socioeconomic status cared for by physician groups after joining the ACO.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort consisted of a 15% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries attributed to physician groups from 2010 to 2016. Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) participation was determined using ACO files. Analyses were conducted between January 1, 2019, and February 25, 2020.

Exposures

Using linear probability models, we conducted difference-in-differences analyses based on the year a physician group joined an ACO to estimate changes in vulnerable patients within ACO-participating groups compared with nonparticipating groups.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Whether the patient was black, was dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid, and poverty and unemployment rates of the patient's zip code.

Results

In a cohort of 76 717 physician groups caring for 7 307 130 patients, 16.1% of groups caring for 27.8% of patients participated in an MSSP ACO. Using 2010 characteristics, patients attributed to ACOs from 2012 to 2016, compared with those who were not, were less likely to be black (8.0% [n = 81 698] vs 9.3% [n = 270 924]) or dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid (12.8% [n = 130 957] vs 18.2% [n = 528 685]), and lived in zip codes with lower poverty rates (13.8% vs 15.5%); unemployment rates were similar (8.0% vs 8.5%). In the difference-in-differences analysis, there was no statistically significant change associated with ACO participation in the proportions of vulnerable patients attributed to ACO-participating groups compared with nonparticipating groups. After joining an ACO, ACO-participating groups had 0.0 percentage points change (95% CI, -0.1 to 0.1 percentage points; P = .59) for black patients, -0.1 percentage points (95% CI, -0.2 to 0.1 percentage points; P = .32) for patients dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid, 0.2 percentage points (95% CI, -3.5 to 4.0 percentage points; P = .91) in poverty rates, and -0.4 percentage points (95% CI, -2.0 to 1.2 percentage points; P = .62) in unemployment rates.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, there were no changes in the proportions of vulnerable patients cared for by ACO-participating physician groups after joining an ACO compared with changes among nonparticipating groups.