1
|
Rahmatinejad Z, Dehghani T, Hoseini B, Rahmatinejad F, Lotfata A, Reihani H, Eslami S. A comparative study of explainable ensemble learning and logistic regression for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3406. [PMID: 38337000 PMCID: PMC10858239 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54038-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
This study addresses the challenges associated with emergency department (ED) overcrowding and emphasizes the need for efficient risk stratification tools to identify high-risk patients for early intervention. While several scoring systems, often based on logistic regression (LR) models, have been proposed to indicate patient illness severity, this study aims to compare the predictive performance of ensemble learning (EL) models with LR for in-hospital mortality in the ED. A cross-sectional single-center study was conducted at the ED of Imam Reza Hospital in northeast Iran from March 2016 to March 2017. The study included adult patients with one to three levels of emergency severity index. EL models using Bagging, AdaBoost, random forests (RF), Stacking and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms, along with an LR model, were constructed. The training and validation visits from the ED were randomly divided into 80% and 20%, respectively. After training the proposed models using tenfold cross-validation, their predictive performance was evaluated. Model performance was compared using the Brier score (BS), The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), The area and precision-recall curve (AUCPR), Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, precision, sensitivity, accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). The study included 2025 unique patients admitted to the hospital's ED, with a total percentage of hospital deaths at approximately 19%. In the training group and the validation group, 274 of 1476 (18.6%) and 152 of 728 (20.8%) patients died during hospitalization, respectively. According to the evaluation of the presented framework, EL models, particularly Bagging, predicted in-hospital mortality with the highest AUROC (0.839, CI (0.802-0.875)) and AUCPR = 0.64 comparable in terms of discrimination power with LR (AUROC (0.826, CI (0.787-0.864)) and AUCPR = 0.61). XGB achieved the highest precision (0.83), sensitivity (0.831), accuracy (0.842), F1-score (0.833), and the highest MCC (0.48). Additionally, the most accurate models in the unbalanced dataset belonged to RF with the lowest BS (0.128). Although all studied models overestimate mortality risk and have insufficient calibration (P > 0.05), stacking demonstrated relatively good agreement between predicted and actual mortality. EL models are not superior to LR in predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED. Both EL and LR models can be considered as screening tools to identify patients at risk of mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Rahmatinejad
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Toktam Dehghani
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Toos Institute of Higher Education, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Benyamin Hoseini
- Pharmaceutical Research Center, Pharmaceutical Technology Institute, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Rahmatinejad
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Aynaz Lotfata
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Hamidreza Reihani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
| | - Saeid Eslami
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
- Pharmaceutical Research Center, Pharmaceutical Technology Institute, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
- Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC - Location AMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Gokhale S, Taylor D, Gill J, Hu Y, Zeps N, Lequertier V, Prado L, Teede H, Enticott J. Hospital length of stay prediction tools for all hospital admissions and general medicine populations: systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 10:1192969. [PMID: 37663657 PMCID: PMC10469540 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1192969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Unwarranted extended length of stay (LOS) increases the risk of hospital-acquired complications, morbidity, and all-cause mortality and needs to be recognized and addressed proactively. Objective This systematic review aimed to identify validated prediction variables and methods used in tools that predict the risk of prolonged LOS in all hospital admissions and specifically General Medicine (GenMed) admissions. Method LOS prediction tools published since 2010 were identified in five major research databases. The main outcomes were model performance metrics, prediction variables, and level of validation. Meta-analysis was completed for validated models. The risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST checklist. Results Overall, 25 all admission studies and 14 GenMed studies were identified. Statistical and machine learning methods were used almost equally in both groups. Calibration metrics were reported infrequently, with only 2 of 39 studies performing external validation. Meta-analysis of all admissions validation studies revealed a 95% prediction interval for theta of 0.596 to 0.798 for the area under the curve. Important predictor categories were co-morbidity diagnoses and illness severity risk scores, demographics, and admission characteristics. Overall study quality was deemed low due to poor data processing and analysis reporting. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic review assessing the quality of risk prediction models for hospital LOS in GenMed and all admissions groups. Notably, both machine learning and statistical modeling demonstrated good predictive performance, but models were infrequently externally validated and had poor overall study quality. Moving forward, a focus on quality methods by the adoption of existing guidelines and external validation is needed before clinical application. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier: CRD42021272198.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Swapna Gokhale
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Eastern Health, Box Hill, VIC, Australia
| | - David Taylor
- Office of Research and Ethics, Eastern Health, Box Hill, VIC, Australia
| | - Jaskirath Gill
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Yanan Hu
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Nikolajs Zeps
- Monash Partners Academic Health Sciences Centre, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Eastern Health Clinical School, Monash University Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Vincent Lequertier
- Univ. Lyon, INSA Lyon, Univ Lyon 2, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, France
- Research on Healthcare Performance (RESHAPE), INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, France
| | - Luis Prado
- Epworth Healthcare, Academic and Medical Services, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Helena Teede
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Monash Partners Academic Health Sciences Centre, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Joanne Enticott
- Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Monash Partners Academic Health Sciences Centre, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Rahmatinejad Z, Hoseini B, Reihani H, Hanna AA, Pourmand A, Tabatabaei SM, Rahmatinejad F, Eslami S. Comparison of Six Scoring Systems for Predicting In-hospital Mortality among Patients with SARS-COV2 Presenting to the Emergency Department. Indian J Crit Care Med 2023; 27:416-425. [PMID: 37378368 PMCID: PMC10291668 DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-24463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of six different severity-of-illness scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with confirmed SARS-COV2 who presented to the emergency department (ED). The scoring systems assessed were worthing physiological score (WPS), early warning score (EWS), rapid acute physiology score (RAPS), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), national early warning score (NEWS), and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA). Materials and methods A cohort study was conducted using data obtained from electronic medical records of 6,429 confirmed SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Logistic regression models were fitted on the original severity-of-illness scores to assess the models' performance using the Area Under the Curve for ROC (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models' performance. Bootstrap samples with multiple imputations were used for internal validation. Results The mean age of the patients was 64 years (IQR:50-76) and 57.5% were male. The WPS, REMS, and NEWS models had AUROC of 0.714, 0.705, and 0.701, respectively. The poorest performance was observed in the RAPS model, with an AUROC of 0.601. The BS for the NEWS, qSOFA, EWS, WPS, RAPS, and REMS was 0.18, 0.09, 0.03, 0.14, 0.15, and 0.11 respectively. Excellent calibration was obtained for the NEWS, while the other models had proper calibration. Conclusion The WPS, REMS, and NEWS have a fair discriminatory performance and may assist in risk stratification for SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Generally, underlying diseases and most vital signs are positively associated with mortality and were different between the survivors and non-survivors. How to cite this article Rahmatinejad Z, Hoseini B, Reihani H, Hanna AA, Pourmand A, Tabatabaei SM, et al. Comparison of Six Scoring Systems for Predicting In-hospital Mortality among Patients with SARS-COV2 Presenting to the Emergency Department. Indian J Crit Care Med 2023;27(6):416-425.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Rahmatinejad
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Benyamin Hoseini
- Pharmaceutical Research Center, Pharmaceutical Technology Institute, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Reihani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Ameen Abu Hanna
- Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC – Location AMC, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ali Pourmand
- Department of Emergency Medicine, The George Washington University, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington DC, United States
| | - Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Rahmatinejad
- Department of Health Information Technology, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Saeid Eslami
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine; Pharmaceutical Research Center, Pharmaceutical Technology Institute, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran; Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC – Location AMC, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Rahmatinejad Z, Peiravi S, Hoseini B, Rahmatinejad F, Eslami S, Abu-Hanna A, Reihani H. Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident's Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 2023:6042762. [PMID: 37223337 PMCID: PMC10202605 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6042762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Background A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents' judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents' judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0. Results In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) and physician's judgment (AUC 0.68; 0.65-0.71). Despite this, the discrimination of mSOFA (AUC 0.74; 0.71-0.77) was significantly higher than that of the qSOFA and residents' judgments. Additionally, the AUC-PR of mSOFA, qSOFA, and emergency resident's judgments was 0.45 (0.43-0.47), 0.38 (0.36-0.40), and 0.35 (0.33-0.37), respectively. The mSOFA appears stronger in terms of overall performance: 0.13 vs. 0.14 and 0.15. All three models showed good calibration. Conclusion The performance of emergency residents' judgment and the qSOFA was the same in predicting in-hospital mortality. However, the mSOFA predicted better-calibrated mortality risk. Large-scale studies should be conducted to determine the utility of these models.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Rahmatinejad
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Samira Peiravi
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Benyamin Hoseini
- Pharmaceutical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Rahmatinejad
- Department of Health Information Technology, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Saeid Eslami
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Pharmaceutical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ameen Abu-Hanna
- Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Hamidreza Reihani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Gokhale S, Taylor D, Gill J, Hu Y, Zeps N, Lequertier V, Teede H, Enticott J. Hospital length of stay prediction for general surgery and total knee arthroplasty admissions: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published prediction models. Digit Health 2023; 9:20552076231177497. [PMID: 37284012 PMCID: PMC10240873 DOI: 10.1177/20552076231177497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Systematic review of length of stay (LOS) prediction models to assess the study methods (including prediction variables), study quality, and performance of predictive models (using area under receiver operating curve (AUROC)) for general surgery populations and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Method LOS prediction models published since 2010 were identified in five major research databases. The main outcomes were model performance metrics including AUROC, prediction variables, and level of validation. Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST checklist. Results Five general surgery studies (15 models) and 10 TKA studies (24 models) were identified. All general surgery and 20 TKA models used statistical approaches; 4 TKA models used machine learning approaches. Risk scores, diagnosis, and procedure types were predominant predictors used. Risk of bias was ranked as moderate in 3/15 and high in 12/15 studies. Discrimination measures were reported in 14/15 and calibration measures in 3/15 studies, with only 4/39 externally validated models (3 general surgery and 1 TKA). Meta-analysis of externally validated models (3 general surgery) suggested the AUROC 95% prediction interval is excellent and ranges between 0.803 and 0.970. Conclusion This is the first systematic review assessing quality of risk prediction models for prolonged LOS in general surgery and TKA groups. We showed that these risk prediction models were infrequently externally validated with poor study quality, typically related to poor reporting. Both machine learning and statistical modelling methods, plus the meta-analysis, showed acceptable to good predictive performance, which are encouraging. Moving forward, a focus on quality methods and external validation is needed before clinical application.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Swapna Gokhale
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Quality Planning and Innovation Unit, Eastern Health, Box Hill, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Taylor
- Office of Research and Ethics, Eastern Health, Box Hill, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jaskirath Gill
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yanan Hu
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nikolajs Zeps
- Graduate Research Industry Partnerships (GRIP) Program, Monash Partners Academic Health Science Centre, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Eastern Health Clinical School, Monash University Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Box Hill, Australia
| | - Vincent Lequertier
- Research on Healthcare Performance (RESHAPE), INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
- Univ. Lyon, INSA Lyon, Univ Lyon 2, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, France
| | - Helena Teede
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Graduate Research Industry Partnerships (GRIP) Program, Monash Partners Academic Health Science Centre, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joanne Enticott
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Graduate Research Industry Partnerships (GRIP) Program, Monash Partners Academic Health Science Centre, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Scott P. In this issue - Innovation to build learning health systems. JOURNAL OF INNOVATION IN HEALTH INFORMATICS 2018; 25:1073. [PMID: 30398445 DOI: 10.14236/jhi.v25i2.1073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2018] [Accepted: 05/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
|