Prognosis of Untreated Minimally Active Chronic Hepatitis B Patients in Comparison With Virological Responders by Antivirals

A new approach to prevent, diagnose, and treat hepatitis B in Africa

There are 82 million people living with hepatitis B (PLWHB) in the World Health Organization Africa region, where it is the main cause of liver disease. Effective vaccines have been available for over 40 years, yet there are 990,000 new infections annually, due to limited implementation of hepatitis B birth dose vaccination and antenatal tenofovir prophylaxis for highly viraemic women, which could eliminate mother-to-child transmission. Despite effective and cheap antiviral treatment which can suppress hepatitis B virus replication and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), < 2% of PLWHB are diagnosed, and only 0.1% are treated. As a result, PLWHB are frequently diagnosed only when they have already developed decompensated cirrhosis and late-stage HCC, and consequently 80,000 hepatitis B-associated deaths occur each year. Major barriers include complex treatment guidelines which were derived from high-income settings, lack of affordable diagnostics, lack or insufficient domestic funding for hepatitis care, and limited healthcare infrastructure. Current treatment criteria may overlook patients at risk of cirrhosis and HCC. Therefore, expanded and simplified treatment criteria are needed. We advocate for decentralized community treatment programmes, adapted for low-resource and rural settings with limited laboratory infrastructure. We propose a strategy of treat-all except patients fulfilling criteria that suggest low risk of disease progression. Expanded treatment represents a financial challenge requiring concerted action from policy makers, industry, and international donor agencies. It is crucial to accelerate hepatitis B elimination plans, integrate hepatitis B care into existing healthcare programmes, and prioritize longitudinal and implementation research to improve care for PLWHB.

Chronic Hepatitis B: Treat all Who Are Viremic?

The main aim of antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is to prevent disease progression and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In general, treatment is recommended for select patient groups viewed as being at higher risk of developing adverse outcomes from CHB. However, patients who do not meet treatment criteria under current international guidelines may still benefit from antiviral therapy to reduce CHB-related complications. Moreover, well-tolerated antiviral drugs that are highly effective at suppressing viral replication are now widely available, and withholding therapy from patients with viremia is increasingly controversial. In this article, we review traditional treatment paradigms and argue the merits of expanding treatment eligibility to patients with CHB who do not meet current treatment criteria.

Global importance of new treatment strategies to efforts to control hepatitis B virus

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection can progress to chronic HBV (CHB) disease, thereby increasing the risk of severe forms of liver disease (i.e. liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) and resulting in a high global burden of morbidity, mortality, and health-care utilization.

AREAS COVERED

We discuss how future therapeutic strategies and treatment guidelines may address the large unmet medical needs among patients with CHB.

EXPERT OPINION

Complexity and a lack of consensus in current CHB treatment guidelines may limit their effective implementation. To minimize poor outcomes in patients not currently receiving treatment (including immune-tolerant and inactive carriers), a simplified harmonized treatment approach is needed across guidelines. Current treatment recommendations focus on nucleot(s)ide analogs (NAs) and pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN), both of which have limitations. NAs provide clinical benefits, but treatment is prolonged and has little impact on functional cure rates. Peg-IFN offers the potential for functional cure but has notable safety and tolerability issues. A shift toward finite treatments with acceptable safety and tolerability profiles is needed.

CONCLUSION

The key to achieving World Health Organization targets for the global eradication of HBV involves enhanced diagnosis with new treatments and/or combinations of existing treatments alongside globally aligned and simplified treatment guidelines for untreated/inadequately treated populations.

Liver Complications in Untreated Treatment-Ineligible versus Treated Treatment-Eligible Patients with Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of patients who do not meet treatment criteria for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) later develop adverse outcomes such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to determine whether current practice guidelines adequately identify CHB patients who will benefit from antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence of adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis and/or HCC) in untreated treatment-ineligible (at baseline and throughout follow-up) versus treated treatment-eligible patients according to standard American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 guidance (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] >70/50 U/L for men/women plus hepatitis B virus [HBV] DNA >20,000/2,000 IU/mL for HBeAg+/-) and with a sensitivity analyses using a lower threshold (ALT >40 U/L and HBV DNA >2,000 IU/mL).

RESULTS

We reviewed records of 5,840 patients from 5 clinics in California and identified 2,987 treatment-naive non-HCC CHB patients. Of those, 271 patients remained untreated treatment-ineligible, 514 patients were treatment-eligible and initiated treatment, with 5-year cumulative adverse liver incidences of 12.5% versus 7.2%, p = 0.074. On multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, albumin, platelet count, and HBV DNA, compared to treated treatment-eligible patients, untreated treatment-ineligible patients had a significantly higher risk of adverse liver outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.03-5.48, p = 0.04) in main analysis by AASLD 2018 criteria but not in sensitivity analysis using the lower treatment threshold (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Patients never meeting standard AASLD 2018 criteria for antiviral therapy and never treated had twice the risk of developing cirrhosis and/or HCC when compared to eligible and treated patients.

Impact of expanding hepatitis B treatment guidelines: A modelling and economic impact analysis

BACKGROUND

Antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may decrease the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. However, only 2.2% of CHB patients receive antiviral treatment globally. The complexity and strictness of the current clinical practice guidelines may limit expanding the treatment coverage for CHB.

AIMS

To examine the impact of expanding treatment criteria on future disease burden in Korea, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic country with high diagnostic rates.

MATERIALS

Dynamic country-level data were used to estimate the HCC incidence, overall mortality and economic impact of three incremental scenarios compared to the base case in Korea through 2035.

RESULTS

In 2020, 1,409,000 CHB cases were estimated, with the majority born before 1995. All scenarios assumed treating 70% of eligible individuals. The first scenario removed viral load restrictions in cirrhotic patients, which would avert 13,000 cases of HCC and save 11,800 lives. The second scenario, lowering the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level restriction to the upper limit of the normal in non-cirrhotic patients, would avert 26,700 cases of HCC and save 23,300 lives. The last scenario removed the restriction by ALT and HBeAg in treating non-cirrhotic individuals with a viral load of ≥2000 IU/ml, which would avert 43,300 cases of HCC and save 37,000 lives. All scenarios were highly cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Simplifying and expanding treatment eligibility for CHB would save many lives and be highly cost-effective when combined with high diagnostic rates. These dynamic country-level data may provide new insights for their global application.

Long-term effect of chronic hepatitis B on mortality in HIV-infected persons in a differential HBV transmission setting

BACKGROUND

There remain gaps in quantifying mortality risk among individuals co-infected with chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan African contexts. Among a cohort of HIV-positive individuals in Rwanda, we estimate the difference in time-to mortality between HBV-positive (HIV/HBV co-infected) and HBV-negative (HIV mono-infected) individuals.

METHODS

Using a dataset of HIV-infected adults screened for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) from January to June 2016 in Rwanda, we performed time-to-event analysis from the date of HBsAg results until death or end of study (31 December 2019). We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate probability of survival over time and Cox proportional hazard models to adjust for other factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Of 21,105 available entries, 18,459 (87.5%) met the inclusion criteria. Mean age was 42.3 years (SD = 11.4) and 394 (2.1%) died during follow-up (mortality rate = 45.7 per 100,000 person-months, 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.4-50.4) Mortality rate ratio for co-infection was 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6, however, Cox regression analysis did not show any association with mortality between compared groups. The adjusted analysis of covariates stratified by co-infection status showed that males, residing outside of the capital Kigali, drinking alcohol, WHO-HIV-clinical stage 3 and 4 were associated with increased mortality in this HIV cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV infection does not significantly influence mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda. The current cohort is likely to have survived a period of high-risk exposure to HBV and HIV mortality and limited health care until their diagnosis.

Effect of tenofovir alafenamide vs. tenofovir disoproxil fumarate on hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B

It is unclear whether tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) or tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is more effective for preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In this study, we compared the effectiveness of these two antiviral agents for preventing HCC. We included treatment-naïve CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy with TDF only (TDF group) or a TAF-based regimen (TAF group) at three academic teaching hospitals from 2012 to 2019. The TAF group included patients receiving TAF as first-line treatment and patients switching from TDF to TAF. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment were excluded. Cumulative probabilities of HCC were assessed using Kaplan-Meier methodology. In total, 2,117 patients were included: 1,832 in the TDF group and 285 in the TAF group. The annual HCC incidence was not significantly different between TDF and TAF groups: 1.66 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years [PY], respectively (multivariate analysis: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.774 [reference: TDF group]; p = .438). Male, liver cirrhosis, hepatitis B e antigen negativity, Fibrosis-4 index>3.25 and low albumin were independently associated with a higher risk of HCC. Propensity score-matched and inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses yielded similar results: 1.56 vs. 1.19 per 100 PY, respectively (HR 1.175; p = .708) and 1.66 vs. 1.29 per 100 PY, respectively (HR 0.888; p = .446). The risk of HCC development was not significantly different between TDF and TAF groups of CHB patients. Further studies with a larger sample size and longer follow-up are required to validate our results.

Should Treatment Indications for Chronic Hepatitis B Be Expanded?

BACKGROUND & AIM

Antiviral therapy has greatly improved the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and active liver disease or advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. However, current treatment does not eradicate HBV and long-term treatment is needed in most patients to maintain clinical benefit. Thus, professional society guidelines do not recommend treatment of all patients with chronic HBV infection. This review article will examine evidence for and against expansion of treatment to patients in whom treatment is not recommended based on current guidelines.

RESULTS

Available data support expanding treatment to immune tolerant patients and patients in the grey zones who have evidence of active/advanced liver disease based on liver biopsy or non-invasive tests and those who remain in the immune tolerant phase after age 40. Evidence supporting treatment expansion to confirmed inactive carriers and other immune tolerant patients is lacking.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV treatment indications can be more liberal when new therapies that can achieve HBsAg loss safely in a high percentage of patients after a finite course of treatment are available.

Impact of tenofovir alafenamide vs. entecavir on hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Whether entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is better at preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. The present study was conducted to explore the ability of these two antivirals to prevent HCC.

METHODS

From 2012 to 2019, treatment-naïve CHB patients undergoing ETV or TAF therapy were recruited at three academic teaching hospitals. The TAF group comprised patients starting TAF as first-line antiviral and those switching antivirals from tenofovir disoproxil fumarate to TAF. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment were excluded from the analysis. Cumulative probabilities of HCC were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

In total, 1810 patients (1525 and 285 in ETV and TAF groups, respectively) were recruited. The annual HCC incidence was statistically not different between the ETV and TAF groups (1.67 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years, respectively) with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.681 (p = 0.255), as determined by multivariate analysis. Male, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, FIB-4 index, and albumin were independent prognostic factors for HCC development. Propensity score-matched and inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses yielded similar results, with non-statistically different HCC incidence between the ETV and TAF groups (1.07 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years (HR = 0.973; p = 0.953) and 1.67 vs. 1.89 per 100 person-years, respectively (HR = 0.949; p = 0.743).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that ETV- and TAF-treated CHB patients have similar risk of developing HCC. Further studies with the larger sample size and longer follow-up are needed to validate these results.

The efficacies of entecavir and tenofovir in terms of enhancing prognosis after curative treatment of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Whether entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affords the better prognosis after curative treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. We compared recurrence and death rates between patients taking ETV and those taking TDF.

METHODS

Between 2013 and 2017, patients with HBV-related HCC who had undergone hepatic resection (n=421) or radiofrequency ablation (n=305) as first-line anti-HCC treatment in three institutes were consecutively enrolled. All patients received ETV or TDF as a first-line antiviral. The cumulative probabilities of recurrence and death were assessed. We adjusted for viral factors, including the HBV-DNA load, and tumor and demographic factors.

RESULTS

During the study period (median 46.6 [interquartile range 25.3-58.9] months), 227 patients experienced recurrence and 53 died. In the ETV (n=405) and TDF (n=321) groups, the annual incidences of recurrence (10.61 and 11.21 per 100 person-years, respectively; P=727) and death (2.28 and 1.79 per 100 person-years, respectively; P=277) were similar, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 0.932 (P=0.622) and 0.667 (P=0.193), respectively. When stratified by treatment modality and the timing of antiviral therapy commencement, the values were similar (all P>0.05). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analyses yielded results that were similar in the two groups in terms of recurrence (aHR=1.038, P=0.963) and death (aHR=0.799, P=0.431). Furthermore, the early (<2 years) and late (≥2 years) recurrence risks were not statistically different in the two groups (both P=0.400), as confirmed by IPTW analysis (P=0.502 and P=0.377, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The prognoses in terms of recurrence and death after curative treatment of HBV-related HCC were not statistically different between the ETV and TDF groups. Further validation studies are needed.

External validation of CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores for Asian chronic hepatitis B patients with well-controlled viremia by antivirals

CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores, consisting of age and fibrotic burden as cirrhosis and/or liver stiffness, were recently proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among Caucasian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing long-term antiviral therapy. We externally validated their predictive performances among an independent cohort from Asia, compared to other conventional prediction models. We consecutively recruited CHB patients with well-controlled viremia (serum HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) receiving antiviral therapy. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Among 1763 patients, CAGE-B score provided the highest Heagerty's integrated area under the curve (iAUC) (0.820), followed by SAGE-B (0.804), mREACH-B (0.800), CAMD (0.786), mPAGE-B (0.748) and PAGE-B (0.721) scores. CAGE-B score showed a significantly better performance than SAGE-B, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, but was similar to mREACH-B. SAGE-B score also showed significantly better performance than mPAGE-B and PAGE-B, but was similar to CAMD and mREACH-B. According to CAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, the annual HCC incidences were 0.18, 1.34 and 6.03 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Likewise, by SAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, those were 0.31, 1.49 and 8.96 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Hence, CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores showed acceptable predictive performances for Asian CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy, with the higher performance by CAGE-B score. They show a trend towards better prognostic capability to predict HCC risk than previous models.

Natural History of Untreated HBeAg-Positive Chronic HBV Infection With Persistently Elevated HBV DNA but Normal Alanine Aminotransferase

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) are not routinely recommended for patients with hepatitis B e antigen–positive chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who have persistently elevated serum HBV DNA level (>20,000 IU/mL) but normal alanine aminotransferase (<40 IU/L) level. Here, we evaluated the cumulative risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in such patients (the untreated persistently elevated serum HBV DNA [pEDNA] group) compared with inactive carriers (the IC group).

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Antiviral Therapy for Untreated Minimally Active Chronic Hepatitis B to Prevent Liver Disease Progression

INTRODUCTION

Antiviral therapy (AVT) for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can prevent liver disease progression. Because of its stringent reimbursement criteria, significant numbers of patients with untreated minimally active (UMA)-CHB exist, although they are still subject to disease progression. We thus performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the rationale for AVT for UMA-CHB.

METHODS

We compared cost and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) in virtual UMA-CHB cohorts of 10,000 50-year-olds receiving AVT (scenario 1) vs no treatment (scenario 2) for 10 years. A Markov model, including 7 health states of CHB-related disease progression, was used. Values for transition probabilities and costs were mostly obtained from recent South Korean data.

RESULTS

The simulation of AVT vs no treatment predicted $2,201 incremental costs and 0.175 incremental QALYs per patient for 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $12,607/QALY, suggesting cost-effectiveness of AVT. In sum, if 10,000 patients received AVT, 720 incident hepatocellular carcinoma and 465 CHB-related more deaths could be averted in 10 years relative to no treatment. When the simulated analysis period was extended to 20 years, AVT was also highly cost-effective with an ICER of $2,036/QALY. Although hepatocellular carcinoma-related mortality was a major factor influencing ICER, its fluctuation can be accepted within willingness to pay of $33,000 in South Korea. According to probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the threshold of willingness to pay, the probability of AVT cost-effectiveness was 83.3%.

DISCUSSION

Long-term AVT for patients with UMA-CHB may contribute positively toward individual clinical benefit and national health care budget.

Negligible HCC risk during stringently defined untreated immune-tolerant phase of chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Whether chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients during immune-tolerant (IT) phase are at low risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. We performed a multicenter study to determine their long-term prognosis.

METHODS

Untreated IT group included patients < 40 years of age, with persistently hepatitis B e antigen [HBeAg] positivity, serum HBV-DNA>6 log₁₀IU/mL, and ALT level < 40 U/L, using age and HBV-DNA criteria by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) guideline. Cumulative HCC risk of untreated IT group (n=194) was compared to HBeAg-positive patients undergoing antiviral therapy according to the practice and reimbursement guidelines (treated HBeAg[+] group, n=454). Patients with history of cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded.

RESULTS

During follow-up (median 62.1 months), HCC did not develop in any patient among untreated IT group, whereas the cumulative probability of HCC at 3, 5, and 9 years in the treated HBeAg(+) group was 0.5%, 0.7%, and 1.3%, respectively (p=0.203). Ninety-seven patients among untreated IT group entered immune-active phase, of whom 86 (88.7%) started antiviral treatment. A high normal ALT level (20-39 U/L) was associated with an increased risk of a phase change, compared to ALT < 20 U/L. After censoring at the time of phase change, the cumulative HCC risk was also not significantly different between two groups (p=0.258).

CONCLUSIONS

No actual HCC risk during untreated IT phase defined by age and HBV-DNA criteria of the AASLD guideline exists, supporting their diagnostic validity from the perspective of long-term prognosis. Further validation studies are required.

Negligible risks of hepatocellular carcinoma during biomarker-defined immune-tolerant phase for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background/Aims

The immune-tolerant (IT) phase of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is not generally indicative of antiviral therapy (AVT). We assessed and compared the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during the IT-phase stringently defined by a low fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, compared to that in patients undergoing AVT.

Methods

Among 125 untreated patients that were hepatitis B e-antigen positive, hepatitis B virus-DNA >20,000 IU/mL, with normal alanine aminotransferase level from 2012 to 2018, those with a FIB-4 index of <1.45 were classified into the IT-group. The cumulative probability of HCC was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. All patients were assessed until HCC development (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis), whereas those suspected of experiencing CHB phase switch were assessed using the per-protocol (PP) and censored at the time of phase switch.

Results

The cumulative probability of HCC at 1-, 3-, and 5-years among the IT-group was zero, compared to AVT-treated patients with FIB-4 indices <1.45 during the same period: 0.2%, 0.6%, and 1.4%, respectively (P=0.264 for ITT and P=0.533 for PP). Among the initially screened 125 untreated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to the IT-group (P=0.005). Furthermore, among AVT-treated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to their counterpart (P<0.001).

Conclusions

The risk of HCC was negligible in the IT-group stringently defined by a low FIB-4 index. However, given that a higher HCC risk exists among untreated patients with higher FIB-4, appropriate criteria for AVT should be established.

A multi-centre study of trends in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk over time during long-term entecavir therapy

The risk of developing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced by antiviral therapy. Here, we evaluated the chronological trends in HCC development risk starting in 2007, when entecavir reimbursement was first initiated in South Korea. Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir 0.5 mg/d were stratified into three groups according to entecavir start time: early (2007-2010), middle (2011-2012) and late (2013-2014) cohorts Among 2442 patients, cumulative probabilities of developing HCC after 1, 3 and 5 years were, respectively, 1.7%, 5.1%, and 8.2% (early cohort; n = 672); 1.5%, 5.1% and 8.9% (middle cohort; n = 757); and 1.2%, 5.3% and 10.6% (late cohort; n = 1013; P > .05 between each pair). Older age, male, positive hepatitis B e antigen, liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class B (vs A) and lower platelet count significantly predicted HCC development in univariate analysis (P < .001), whereas entecavir start time (early vs middle vs late cohorts) did not affect the risk of HCC development (P = .457). A multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.041), male gender (aHR = 2.069), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 3.771) and Child-Pugh class B (vs A, aHR = 1.548) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count was independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC development (aHR = 0.993; all P < .05). In conclusion, the risk of developing HCC among patients receiving entecavir in South Korea has been stable since 2007. To establish more effective HCC surveillance programs, further studies regarding the carcinogenic roles of nonviral factors are required.