Alpha-fetoprotein: Past, present, and future

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a glycoprotein that plays an important role in immune regulation with critical involvement in early human development and maintaining the immune balance during pregnancy. Postfetal development, the regulatory mechanisms controlling AFP undergo a shift and AFP gene transcription is suppressed. Instead, these enhancers refocus their activity to maintain albumin gene transcription throughout adulthood. During the postnatal period, AFP expression can increase in the setting of hepatocyte injury, regeneration, and malignant transformation. It is the first oncoprotein discovered and is routinely used as part of a screening strategy for HCC. AFP has been shown to be a powerful prognostic biomarker, and multiple HCC prognosis models confirmed the independent prognostic utility of AFP. AFP is also a useful predictive biomarker for monitoring the treatment response of HCC. In addition to its role as a biomarker, AFP plays important roles in immune modulation to promote tumorigenesis and thus has been investigated as a therapeutic target in HCC. In this review article, we aim to provide an overview of AFP, encompassing the discovery, biological role, and utility as an HCC biomarker in combination with other biomarkers and how it impacts clinical practice and future direction.

A Multidisciplinary Assessment of ChatGPT's Knowledge of Amyloidosis: Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Amyloidosis, a rare multisystem condition, often requires complex, multidisciplinary care. Its low prevalence underscores the importance of efforts to ensure the availability of high-quality patient education materials for better outcomes. ChatGPT (OpenAI) is a large language model powered by artificial intelligence that offers a potential avenue for disseminating accurate, reliable, and accessible educational resources for both patients and providers. Its user-friendly interface, engaging conversational responses, and the capability for users to ask follow-up questions make it a promising future tool in delivering accurate and tailored information to patients.

OBJECTIVE

We performed a multidisciplinary assessment of the accuracy, reproducibility, and readability of ChatGPT in answering questions related to amyloidosis.

METHODS

In total, 98 amyloidosis questions related to cardiology, gastroenterology, and neurology were curated from medical societies, institutions, and amyloidosis Facebook support groups and inputted into ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4. Cardiology- and gastroenterology-related responses were independently graded by a board-certified cardiologist and gastroenterologist, respectively, who specialize in amyloidosis. These 2 reviewers (RG and DCK) also graded general questions for which disagreements were resolved with discussion. Neurology-related responses were graded by a board-certified neurologist (AAH) who specializes in amyloidosis. Reviewers used the following grading scale: (1) comprehensive, (2) correct but inadequate, (3) some correct and some incorrect, and (4) completely incorrect. Questions were stratified by categories for further analysis. Reproducibility was assessed by inputting each question twice into each model. The readability of ChatGPT-4 responses was also evaluated using the Textstat library in Python (Python Software Foundation) and the Textstat readability package in R software (R Foundation for Statistical Computing).

RESULTS

ChatGPT-4 (n=98) provided 93 (95%) responses with accurate information, and 82 (84%) were comprehensive. ChatGPT-3.5 (n=83) provided 74 (89%) responses with accurate information, and 66 (79%) were comprehensive. When examined by question category, ChatGTP-4 and ChatGPT-3.5 provided 53 (95%) and 48 (86%) comprehensive responses, respectively, to "general questions" (n=56). When examined by subject, ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-3.5 performed best in response to cardiology questions (n=12) with both models producing 10 (83%) comprehensive responses. For gastroenterology (n=15), ChatGPT-4 received comprehensive grades for 9 (60%) responses, and ChatGPT-3.5 provided 8 (53%) responses. Overall, 96 of 98 (98%) responses for ChatGPT-4 and 73 of 83 (88%) for ChatGPT-3.5 were reproducible. The readability of ChatGPT-4's responses ranged from 10th to beyond graduate US grade levels with an average of 15.5 (SD 1.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Large language models are a promising tool for accurate and reliable health information for patients living with amyloidosis. However, ChatGPT's responses exceeded the American Medical Association's recommended fifth- to sixth-grade reading level. Future studies focusing on improving response accuracy and readability are warranted. Prior to widespread implementation, the technology's limitations and ethical implications must be further explored to ensure patient safety and equitable implementation.

Upper limit of normal ALT levels in health and metabolic diseases: Pooled analysis of 423,355 individuals with bootstrap modelling

INTRODUCTION

Given the global rise in obesity-related metabolic diseases, the upper limit of normal (ULN) alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in individuals with and without metabolic diseases may have changed. We performed a meta-analysis combined with bootstrap modelling to estimate the ALT ULN levels for individuals with and without metabolic diseases.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Two separate searches of the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were performed, one to identify healthy individuals which yielded 12 articles (349,367 individuals); another to include those with potential metabolic diseases but without known liver disease which yielded 35 articles (232,388 individuals). We estimated the mean ALT using a random-effects mixed model and the ULN level (95th-percentile value) via a bootstrap model with 10,000 resamples. In individuals without metabolic diseases and known liver disease, the ALT ULN levels were 32 U/L overall; 36 U/L in males and 28 U/L in females. In analyses that included individuals with metabolic diseases, the ALT ULN levels were 40 U/L among the overweight/obese (29 U/L if normal weight) and 36 U/L among those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (33 U/L if no T2DM). On meta-regression of study-level factors, body mass index (coefficient 1.49, 95% CI 0.11-2.86, p = 0.03), high-density lipoprotein (coefficient -0.47, 95% CI -0.85-(-0.08), p = 0.02) and triglycerides (coefficient 0.19, 95% CI 0.12-0.25, p < 0.0001) correlated with ALT.

CONCLUSION

We provide expected ranges of ALT ULN levels for individuals without known liver disease without metabolic diseases and those with or without T2DM and/or are normal weight or overweight/obese. These data may have implications for clinical care and screening.

Global incidence of adverse clinical events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a multitude of adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of NAFLD-related adverse events.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults with NAFLD to evaluate the pooled incidence of adverse events.

RESULTS

19,406 articles were screened, 409 full-text articles reviewed, and 79 eligible studies (1,377,466 persons) were included. Mean age was 51.47 years and body mass index 28.90 kg/m2. Baseline comorbidities included metabolic syndrome (41.73%), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (16.83%), cirrhosis (21.97%), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (58.85%). Incidence rate per 1,000 person-years for mortality included: all-cause (14.6), CVD-related (4.53), non-liver cancer-related (4.53), and liver-related (3.10). Incidence for liver-related events included overall (24.3), fibrosis progression (49.0), cirrhosis (10.9), liver transplant (12.0), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3.39). Incidence for non-liver events included metabolic syndrome (25.4), hypertension (25.8), dyslipidemia (26.4), diabetes (19.0), CVD (24.77), renal impairment (30.3), depression/anxiety (29.1), and non-liver cancer (10.5). Biopsy-proven NASH had higher incidence of HCC (P=0.043) compared to non-NASH. Higher rates of CVD and mortality were observed in North America and Europe, hypertension and non-liver cancer in North America, and HCC in Western Pacific/Southeast Asia (P<0.05). No significant differences were observed by sex. Time-period analyses showed decreasing rates of cardiovascular and non-liver cancer mortality and increasing rates of decompensated cirrhosis (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

People with NAFLD have high incidence of liver and non-liver adverse clinical events, varying by NASH, geographic region, and time-period, but not sex.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD without diagnosed cirrhosis: a nationwide real-world U.S. study

BACKGROUND

A substantial proportion of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) do not have cirrhosis. Data regarding the incidence and predictors of HCC development in NAFLD without cirrhosis are limited. We conducted a large, national study of NAFLD patients without documented cirrhosis to examine the incidence and predictors for HCC development.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 751,603 NAFLD patients (54% female) without documented cirrhosis derived from the deidentified Optum Clinformatics® Data Mart Database. Patients with cirrhosis, platelets < 120,000/µL or FIB-4 values > 2.67 were excluded.

RESULTS

The mean age was 53.7 ± 15.0 years, 45.9% were male, 39.5% had diabetes, 57.6% were White, 18.4% Hispanic, 8.2% Black and 4.9% were Asian. The mean platelet count was 264,000 ± 72,000/µL, and 96.3% of patients had a FIB-4 < 1.30. Over 1,686,607 person-years of follow-up, there were 76 incident cases of HCC, resulting in an HCC incidence rate of 0.05 per 1000 person-years. There was a higher HCC incidence rate among patients with platelets ≤ 150,000/µL, versus those with platelets > 150,000/µL (0.23 per 1000 person-years, vs. 0.04 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.02) but not in subgroup analyses for age, sex, race/ethnicity or diabetes. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted multiple confounders, platelet count ≤ 150,000/µL remained an independent predictor of HCC development (adjusted HR 5.80, 95% CI 1.67-20.1, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

HCC incidence in NAFLD without documented cirrhosis was below the threshold for cost-effective HCC surveillance in overall and multiple subgroup analyses. Platelet count < 150,000/µL may be a useful predictor of HCC development in this population.

Large language models and bariatric surgery patient education: a comparative readability analysis of GPT-3.5, GPT-4, Bard, and online institutional resources

BACKGROUND

The readability of online bariatric surgery patient education materials (PEMs) often surpasses the recommended 6th grade level. Large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT and Bard, have the potential to revolutionize PEM delivery. We aimed to evaluate the readability of PEMs produced by U.S. medical institutions compared to LLMs, as well as the ability of LLMs to simplify their responses.

METHODS

Responses to frequently asked questions (FAQs) related to bariatric surgery were gathered from top-ranked health institutions. FAQ responses were also generated from GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Bard. LLMs were then prompted to improve the readability of their initial responses. The readability of institutional responses, initial LLM responses, and simplified LLM responses were graded using validated readability formulas. Accuracy and comprehensiveness of initial and simplified LLM responses were also compared.

RESULTS

Responses to 66 FAQs were included. All institutional and initial LLM responses had poor readability, with average reading levels ranging from 9th grade to college graduate. Simplified responses from LLMs had significantly improved readability, with reading levels ranging from 6th grade to college freshman. When comparing simplified LLM responses, GPT-4 responses demonstrated the highest readability, with reading levels ranging from 6th to 9th grade. Accuracy was similar between initial and simplified responses from all LLMs. Comprehensiveness was similar between initial and simplified responses from GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. However, 34.8% of Bard's simplified responses were graded as less comprehensive compared to initial.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the efficacy of LLMs in enhancing the readability of bariatric surgery PEMs. GPT-4 outperformed other models, generating simplified PEMs from 6th to 9th grade reading levels. Unlike GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, Bard's simplified responses were graded as less comprehensive. We advocate for future studies examining the potential role of LLMs as dynamic and personalized sources of PEMs for diverse patient populations of all literacy levels.

Different minimal alcohol consumption in male and female individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relationship between moderate alcohol intake and health outcomes among individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is complex. Our aim was to investigate the association of minimal alcohol consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among MAFLD individuals of different genders.

METHODS

Our study included 2630 MAFLD individuals from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between alcohol use measures and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to evaluate the relationship between alcohol consumption per week and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In the entire MAFLD cohort, we observed significant disparities in clinical characteristics between male and female individuals with MAFLD. Higher weekly alcohol consumption was significantly associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality (male, hazard ratios [HRs]: 1.009, 95% CIs: 1.004-1.014; female, HRs: 1.032, 95% CIs: 1.022-1.042). In males with MAFLD, a linear association with all-cause mortality was observed for weekly alcohol consumption (p for non-linearity = .21). Conversely, in females with MAFLD, the risk of all-cause mortality remained relatively stable until 2 drinks per week, after which it rapidly increased with each additional drink consumed, and the increase in mortality risk was higher than that observed in males (p for non-linearity < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that any increase in weekly alcohol consumption was associated with increased all-cause mortality in men with MAFLD. Conversely, consuming less than 2 drinks per week had minimal impact on the risk of mortality among female.

Perceptions and Expectations Regarding the Step 1 Score Change Among Surgical and Non-Surgical Program Directors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

There are currently no studies examining differences in perceptions and expected impact of the Step 1 score change to pass/fail between surgical and non-surgical program directors (PDs). We conducted a systematic review in May 2023 of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and PSYCInfo to evaluate studies examining PDs' perspectives regarding the Step 1 score change. We performed random-effects meta-analyses to determine differences in perspectives among surgical and non-surgical PDs. Surgical PDs (76.8% [95% CI, 72.1%-82.0%], I2 = 52%) reported significantly greater rates of disagreement with the score change compared to non-surgical (65.1% [95% CI, 57.9%-73.1%], I2 = 69.7%) (P = .01). Surgical PDs also reported significantly greater rates of agreement that the score change will increase the difficulty in objectively comparing applicants (88.1% [95% CI, 84.6%-91.7%], I2 = 16.4%), compared to non-surgical (81.0% [95% CI, 75.6%-86.8%], I2 = 72.6%) (P = .04). There was less heterogeneity among non-surgical PDs (88.7% [95% CI, 86.2%-91.2%], I2 = 0%), compared to surgical (84.7% [95% CI, 79.0%-90.8%], I2 = 67.3%), regarding expected increases in emphasis on Step 2, although the difference in rates of agreement was not statistically significant. Overall, there is significant heterogeneity in the literature regarding expected changes in the residency application review process. Most PDs reported significant disagreement with the score change, greater expected difficulty in objectively evaluating applicants, and greater emphasis on Step 2, with surgical PDs reporting greater rates of disagreement, greater expected difficulty, and heterogeneity regarding expected increases in emphasis on Step 2, compared to non-surgical. Additionally, there is significant heterogeneity in the overall literature regarding expected changes in the residency application review process. Further research is needed to establish evidence-based guidelines that improve the overall residency application process for all stakeholders.

Machine learning versus multivariate logistic regression for predicting severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with Omicron variant infection

With the emergence of the Omicron variant, the number of pediatric Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases requiring hospitalization and developing severe or critical illness has significantly increased. Machine learning and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to predict risk factors and develop prognostic models for severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with the Omicron variant in this study. Of the 544 hospitalized children including 243 and 301 in the mild and severe groups, respectively. Fever (92.3%) was the most common symptom, followed by cough (79.4%), convulsions (36.8%), and vomiting (23.2%). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (1-3 years old, odds ratio (OR): 3.193, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.778-5.733], comorbidity (OR: 1.993, 95% CI:1.154-3.443), cough (OR: 0.409, 95% CI:0.236-0.709), and baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR: 1.108, 95% CI: 1.023-1.200), lactate dehydrogenase (OR: 1.993, 95% CI: 1.154-3.443), blood urea nitrogen (OR: 1.002, 95% CI: 1.000-1.003) and total bilirubin (OR: 1.178, 95% CI: 1.005-3.381) were independent risk factors for severe COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models constructed by multivariate logistic regression analysis and machine learning (RandomForest + TomekLinks) were 0.7770 and 0.8590, respectively. The top 10 most important variables of random forest variables were selected to build a prediction model, with an AUC of 0.8210. Compared with multivariate logistic regression, machine learning models could more accurately predict severe COVID-19 in children with Omicron variant infection.

Development of a machine learning-based model to predict hepatic inflammation in chronic hepatitis B patients with concurrent hepatic steatosis: a cohort study

Background

With increasingly prevalent coexistence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and hepatic steatosis (HS), simple, non-invasive diagnostic methods to accurately assess the severity of hepatic inflammation are needed. We aimed to build a machine learning (ML) based model to detect hepatic inflammation in patients with CHB and concurrent HS.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study in China. Treatment-naive CHB patients with biopsy-proven HS between April 2004 and September 2022 were included. The optimal features for model development were selected by SHapley Additive explanations, and an ML algorithm with the best accuracy to diagnose moderate to severe hepatic inflammation (Scheuer's system ≥ G3) was determined and assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05766449).

Findings

From a pool of 1,787 treatment-naive patients with CHB and HS across eleven hospitals, 689 patients from nine of these hospitals were chosen for the development of the diagnostic model. The remaining two hospitals contributed to two independent external validation cohorts, comprising 509 patients in validation cohort 1 and 589 in validation cohort 2. Eleven features regarding inflammation, hepatic and metabolic functions were identified. The gradient boosting classifier (GBC) model showed the best performance in predicting moderate to severe hepatic inflammation, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83-0.88) in the training cohort, and 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92), 0.76 (95% CI 0.73-0.80) in the first and second external validation cohorts, respectively. A publicly accessible web tool was generated for the model.

Interpretation

Using simple parameters, the GBC model predicted hepatic inflammation in CHB patients with concurrent HS. It holds promise for guiding clinical management and improving patient outcomes.

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82170609, 81970545), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Major Project) (No. ZR2020KH006), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No.BK20231118), Tianjin Key Medical Discipline (Specialty), Construction Project, TJYXZDXK-059B, Tianjin Health Science and Technology Project key discipline special, TJWJ2022XK034, and Research project of Chinese traditional medicine and Chinese traditional medicine combined with Western medicine of Tianjin municipal health and Family Planning Commission (2021022).

Treatment rates and factors associated with direct-acting antiviral therapy for insured patients with hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma - A real-world nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Since the inception of the interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, guidelines as to who should receive this potentially curative treatment have evolved. Treatment with DAAs is now considered for all patients except for those considered moribund.

AIM

To determine the DAA treatment rate for patients with HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

This was a retrospective study from January 2015 to March 2021 of a national sample of privately insured patients with HCV-related HCC using Optum's Clinformatics® Data Mart (CDM) Database - a large, de-identified, adjudicated claims database.

RESULTS

We identified 3922 patients with HCV-related HCC: 922 (23.5%) received DAA. Compared to untreated patients, DAA-treated patients were younger (65.2 ± 7.5 vs. 66.4 ± 7.5 years, p < 0.001), more frequently saw a gastroenterology/infectious disease (GI/ID) physician (41.2% vs. 34.2%), and had decompensated cirrhosis (56% vs. 53%, p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, younger age (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99, p < 0.001), GI/ID care (HR: 3.06, 95% CI: 2.13-4.51, p < 0.001), and having cirrhosis (compensated: HR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.18-2.21, p = 0.003; decompensated: HR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.07-1.98, p = 0.02) were associated with receiving DAA treatment, but not sex, race, or ethnicity. DAA-treated patients had significantly higher 5-year survival than untreated patients (47.2% vs. 35.2%, p < 0.001). Following adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and HCC treatment, receiving DAA treatment was associated with lower mortality (aHR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.53-0.69, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

DAA treatment remains underutilised in insured patients with HCV-related HCC; fewer than one in four patients received treatment. Seeing a specialist and having decompensated cirrhosis were predictors for DAA treatment; additional efforts are needed to increase awareness of HCV treatment.

The impact of an increased Fibrosis-4 index and the severity of hepatic steatosis on mortality in individuals living with diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data on the effects of liver fibrosis and hepatic steatosis on outcomes in individuals living with diabetes are limited. Therefore, we investigated the predictive value of the fibrosis and the severity of hepatic steatosis for all-cause mortality in individuals living with diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 1903 patients with diabetes from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) dataset were enrolled. Presumed hepatic fibrosis was evaluated with Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). The mortality risk and corresponding hazard ratio (HR) were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 19.4 years, all-cause deaths occurred in 69.6%. FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 was an independent predictor of mortality in individuals living with diabetes (HR 1.219, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.067-1.392, p = 0.004). Overall, FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 without moderate-severe steatosis increased the mortality risk (HR 1.365; 95%CI 1.147-1.623, p < 0.001). The similar results were found in individuals living with diabetes with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) (HR 1.499; 95%CI 1.065-2.110, p = 0.020), metabolic syndrome (MetS) (HR 1.397; 95%CI 1.086-1.796, p = 0.009) or abdominal obesity (HR 1.370; 95%CI 1.077-1.742, p = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver fibrosis, as estimated by FIB-4, may serve as a more reliable prognostic indicator for individuals living with diabetes than hepatic steatosis. Individuals living with diabetes with FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 without moderate-severe steatosis had a significantly increased all-cause mortality risk. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and monitoring those individuals, as they may benefit from further evaluation and risk stratification.

Prevalence of and associated factors for sarcopenia in patients with liver cirrhosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is associated with poor outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. However, the prevalence of and associated factors for developing sarcopenia in this population remain to be determined.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to summarize the prevalence, characteristics, and associated factors of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Electronic searches were performed from inception to June 9, 2022 to identify the eligible studies. We meta-analyzed the prevalence of sarcopenia in overall patients with cirrhosis and subgroups. Both crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using the random effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 55 studies involving 13,158 patients from 17 countries were included. The overall prevalence of sarcopenia was 40.1 % (95 % CI 35.4%-44.9 %) in patients with cirrhosis. The pooled prevalence was higher in males, Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis, decompensated stage, ascites, subjective global assessment class C cirrhosis, and when sarcopenia was defined by L3-SMI (third lumbar-skeletal muscle index) at a higher cutoff. In multivariate analysis, older age (adjusted OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.00-1.07), male (adjusted OR 4.75, 95 % CI 2.72-8.28), lower body mass index (BMI) (adjusted OR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.73-0.83), alcoholic liver disease (ALD) (adjusted OR 1.43, 95 % CI 1.19-1.72), but not ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, were significantly associated with an increased risk of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is a prevalent complication, and older age, male patients, lower BMI, and patients with ALD are associated with an increased risk of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis.

Alcohol Intake Thresholds Among Individuals With Steatotic Liver Disease

This cohort study aims to elucidate the dose-dependent association of alcohol use with progression of steatotic liver disease using a noninvasive, low-cost method.

Immunotherapy and Transarterial Radioembolization Combination Treatment for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The efficacy and safety of combined immunotherapy and transarterial radioembolization (TARE) were suggested in preclinical and early-phase trials, but these were limited by small sample sizes. We sought to compare the efficacy of combined therapy and immunotherapy alone in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The National Cancer Database was used to identify patients with advanced HCC diagnosed between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019. We included patients who received combined therapy or immunotherapy alone as first-line treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine predictors of combined therapy. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression approaches were used to identify predictors of overall survival and to compare hazards of mortality between the patients who received combined therapy and immunotherapy alone.

RESULTS

Of 1,664 eligible patients with advanced-stage HCC, 142 received combined TARE/immunotherapy and 1,522 received immunotherapy alone. Receipt of combination therapy was associated with care at an academic center and inversely associated with racial/ethnic minority status (Hispanic and Black individuals). The median overall survival was significantly higher in the combination group than in the immunotherapy alone group (19.8 vs 9.5 months). In multivariable analysis, combined therapy was independently associated with reduced mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.68, P < 0.001). Results were consistent across subgroups and in sensitivity analyses using propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting.

DISCUSSION

The combination of TARE and immunotherapy was associated with improved survival compared with immunotherapy alone in patients with advanced-stage HCC. Our findings underly the importance of large clinical trials evaluating combination therapy in these patients.

Beyond the Checkpoint: Severe Axitinib-induced Liver Injury

Understanding the potential adverse effects associated with oncological treatments is crucial in the clinical care of patients with cancer. We describe the first case report delineating severe acute liver injury secondary to axitinib. This is a case of metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with axitinib and pembrolizumab, complicated by a severe axitinib-induced liver injury, characterized by significant elevations of hepatocellular and cholestatic liver enzymes during initial treatment and rechallenge of axitinib. Remarkably, the liver chemistries normalized upon discontinuation of the medication.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Child-Pugh Class B Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are increasingly used in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, data on ICI therapy in patients with advanced HCC and impaired liver function are scarce.

Objective

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the efficacy and safety of ICI treatment for advanced HCC with Child-Pugh B liver function.

Data Sources

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched for relevant studies from inception through June 15, 2022.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials, cohort studies, or single-group studies that investigated the efficacy or safety of ICI therapy for Child-Pugh B advanced HCC were included.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guideline was followed to extract data. A random-effects model was adopted if the heterogeneity was significant (I2 > 50%); otherwise, a fixed-effect model was used.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The objective response rate (ORR) and overall survival (OS) were considered to be the primary efficacy outcomes of ICI treatment for Child-Pugh B advanced HCC, and the incidence of treatment-related adverse events (trAEs) was set as the primary measure for the safety outcome.

Results

A total of 22 studies including 699 patients with Child-Pugh B and 2114 with Child-Pugh A advanced HCC comprised the analytic sample (median age range, 53-73 years). Upon pooled analysis, patients treated with ICIs in the Child-Pugh B group had an ORR of 14% (95% CI, 11%-17%) and disease control rate (DCR) of 46% (95% CI, 36%-56%), with a median OS of 5.49 (95% CI, 3.57-7.42) months and median progression-free survival of 2.68 (95% CI, 1.85-3.52) months. The rate of any grade trAEs in the Child-Pugh B group was 40% (95% CI, 34%-47%) and of grade 3 or higher trAEs was 12% (95% CI, 6%-23%). Compared with the Child-Pugh A group, the ORR (odds ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43-0.81; P < .001) and DCR (odds ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.50-0.81; P < .001) were lower in the Child-Pugh B group. Child-Pugh B was independently associated with worse OS in patients with advanced HCC treated with ICIs (hazard ratio, 2.72 [95% CI, 2.34-3.16]; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.81-2.99]). However, ICIs were not associated with increased trAEs in the Child-Pugh B group.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that although the safety of ICI treatment was comparable between patients with HCC with vs without advanced liver disease and the treatment resulted in a significant number of radiologic responses, survival outcomes are still inferior in patients with worse liver function. More study is needed to determine the effectiveness of ICI treatment in this population.

ChatGPT's ability to comprehend and answer cirrhosis related questions in Arabic

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Cirrhosis is a chronic progressive disease which requires complex care. Its incidence is rising in the Arab countries making it the 7th leading cause of death in the Arab League in 2010. ChatGPT is a large language model with a growing body of literature demonstrating its ability to answer clinical questions. We examined ChatGPT's accuracy in responding to cirrhosis related questions in Arabic and compared its performance to English.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

ChatGPTs responses to 91 questions in Arabic and English were graded by a transplant hepatologist fluent in both languages. Accuracy of responses was assessed using the scale: 1. Comprehensive, 2. Correct but inadequate, 3. Mixed with correct and incorrect/outdated data, and 4. Completely incorrect.Accuracy of Arabic compared to English responses was assessed using the scale: 1. Arabic response is more accurate, 2. Similar accuracy, 3. Arabic response is less accurate.

RESULTS

The model provided 22 (24.2%) comprehensive, 44 (48.4%) correct but inadequate, 13 (14.3%) mixed with correct and incorrect/outdated data and 12 (13.2%) completely incorrect Arabic responses. When comparing the accuracy of Arabic and English responses, 9 (9.9%) of the Arabic responses were graded as more accurate, 52 (57.1%) similar in accuracy and 30 (33.0%) as less accurate compared to English.

CONCLUSION

ChatGPT has the potential to serve as an adjunct source of information for Arabic speaking patients with cirrhosis. The model provided correct responses in Arabic to 72.5% of questions, although its performance in Arabic was less accurate than in English. The model produced completely incorrect responses to 13.2% of questions, reinforcing its potential role as an adjunct and not replacement of care by licensed healthcare professionals. Future studies to refine this technology are needed to help Arabic speaking patients with cirrhosis across the globe understand their disease and improve their outcomes.

Assessing the performance of ChatGPT in answering questions regarding cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) require extensive and personalized care to improve outcomes. ChatGPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer), a large language model, holds the potential to provide professional yet patient-friendly support. We aimed to examine the accuracy and reproducibility of ChatGPT in answering questions regarding knowledge, management, and emotional support for cirrhosis and HCC.

METHODS

ChatGPT's responses to 164 questions were independently graded by two transplant hepatologists and resolved by a third reviewer. The performance of ChatGPT was also assessed using two published questionnaires and 26 questions formulated from the quality measures of cirrhosis management. Finally, its emotional support capacity was tested.

RESULTS

We showed that ChatGPT regurgitated extensive knowledge of cirrhosis (79.1% correct) and HCC (74.0% correct), but only small proportions (47.3% in cirrhosis, 41.1% in HCC) were labeled as comprehensive. The performance was better in basic knowledge, lifestyle, and treatment than in the domains of diagnosis and preventive medicine. For the quality measures, the model answered 76.9% of questions correctly but failed to specify decision-making cut-offs and treatment durations. ChatGPT lacked knowledge of regional guidelines variations, such as HCC screening criteria. However, it provided practical and multifaceted advice to patients and caregivers regarding the next steps and adjusting to a new diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

We analyzed the areas of robustness and limitations of ChatGPT's responses on the management of cirrhosis and HCC and relevant emotional support. ChatGPT may have a role as an adjunct informational tool for patients and physicians to improve outcomes.

Trends of Cirrhosis-related Mortality in the USA during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Immunocompromised status and interrupted routine care may render patients with cirrhosis vulnerable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A nationwide dataset that includes more than 99% of the decedents in the U.S. between April 2012 and September 2021 was used. Projected age-standardized mortality during the pandemic were estimated according to prepandemic mortality rates, stratified by season. Excess deaths were determined by estimating the difference between observed and projected mortality rates. A temporal trend analysis of observed mortality rates was also performed in 0.83 million decedents with cirrhosis between April 2012 and September 2021 was included. Following an increasing trend of cirrhosis-related mortality before the pandemic, with a semiannual percentage change (SAPC) of 0.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.0-1.0%), p=0.036], a precipitous increase with seasonal variation occurred during the pandemic (SAPC 5.35, 95% CI: 1.9-8.9, p=0.005). Significantly increased mortality rates were observed in those with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), with a SAPC of 8.44 (95% CI: 4.3-12.8, p=0.001) during the pandemic. All-cause mortality of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease rose steadily across the entire study period with a SAPC of 6.79 (95% CI: 6.3-7.3, p<0.001). The decreasing trend of HCV-related mortality was reversed during the pandemic, while there was no significant change in HBV-related deaths. While there was significant increase in COVID-19-related deaths, more than 55% of the excess deaths were the indirect impact of the pandemic. We observed an alarming increase in cirrhosis-related deaths during the pandemic especially for ALD, with evidence in both direct and indirect impact. Our findings have implications on formulating policies for patients with cirrhosis.

Assessing the Accuracy of Responses by the Language Model ChatGPT to Questions Regarding Bariatric Surgery

PURPOSE

ChatGPT is a large language model trained on a large dataset covering a broad range of topics, including the medical literature. We aim to examine its accuracy and reproducibility in answering patient questions regarding bariatric surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Questions were gathered from nationally regarded professional societies and health institutions as well as Facebook support groups. Board-certified bariatric surgeons graded the accuracy and reproducibility of responses. The grading scale included the following: (1) comprehensive, (2) correct but inadequate, (3) some correct and some incorrect, and (4) completely incorrect. Reproducibility was determined by asking the model each question twice and examining difference in grading category between the two responses.

RESULTS

In total, 151 questions related to bariatric surgery were included. The model provided "comprehensive" responses to 131/151 (86.8%) of questions. When examined by category, the model provided "comprehensive" responses to 93.8% of questions related to "efficacy, eligibility and procedure options"; 93.3% related to "preoperative preparation"; 85.3% related to "recovery, risks, and complications"; 88.2% related to "lifestyle changes"; and 66.7% related to "other". The model provided reproducible answers to 137 (90.7%) of questions.

CONCLUSION

The large language model ChatGPT often provided accurate and reproducible responses to common questions related to bariatric surgery. ChatGPT may serve as a helpful adjunct information resource for patients regarding bariatric surgery in addition to standard of care provided by licensed healthcare professionals. We encourage future studies to examine how to leverage this disruptive technology to improve patient outcomes and quality of life.

HIV-related mortality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

US progress towards ending the HIV epidemic was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of the pandemic on HIV-related mortality and potential disparities.

METHODS

Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Census Bureau, HIV-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years between 2012-2021 were analyzed. Excess HIV-related mortality rates were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic. The trends of mortality were quantified with Joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 79,725 deaths documented in adults aged 25 years and older between 2012-2021, a significant downward trend was noted in HIV-related mortality rates before the pandemic, followed by a surge during the pandemic. The observed mortality rates were 18.8% (95%CI: 13.1%-25.5%) and 25.4% (95%CI:19.9%-30.4%) higher than the projected values in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Both of these percentages were higher than that in the general population in 2020 (16.4%, 95%CI: 14.9%-17.9%) and 2021 (19.8%, 95%CI: 18.0%-21.6%), respectively. Increased HIV-related mortality was observed across all age subgroups, but those aged 25-44 years demonstrated the greatest relative increase and the lowest COVID-19-related deaths when compared to middle- and old-aged decedents. Disparities were observed across racial/ethnic subgroups and geographic regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic led to a reversal in the attainments made to reduce the prevalence of HIV. Individuals living with HIV were disproportionately affected during the pandemic. Thoughtful policies are needed to address the disparity in excess HIV-related mortality. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Excess psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: A nationwide population-based study from 2010 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Little is known about mortality trends among patients with psoriasis (PsO) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the United States.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain mortality trends of PsO and PsA between 2010 and 2021, focusing on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We collected data from the National Vital Statistic System and calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and cause-specific mortality for PsO/PsA. We evaluated observed versus predicted mortality for 2020-2021 based on trends from 2010 to 2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analysis.

RESULTS

Among 5810 and 2150 PsO- and PsA-related deaths between 2010 and 2021, ASMR for PsO dramatically increased between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021 (annual percentage change [APC] 2.07% vs. 15.26%; p < 0.01), leading to a higher observed ASMR (per 100,000 persons) than predicted for 2020 (0.27 vs. 0.22) and 2021 (0.31 vs. 0.23). The excess mortality of PsO was 22.7% and 34.8% higher than that in the general population in 2020 (16.4%, 95% CI: 14.9%-17.9%) and 2021 (19.8%, 95% CI: 18.0%-21.6%) respectively. Notably, the ASMR rise for PsO was most pronounced in the female (APC: 26.86% vs. 12.19% in males) and the middle-aged group (APC: 17.67% vs. 12.47% in the old-age group). ASMR, APC and excess mortality for PsA were similar to PsO. SARS-CoV-2 infection contributed to more than 60% of the excess mortality for PsO and PsA.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals living with PsO and PsA were disproportionately affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both ASMRs increased at an alarming rate, with the most pronounced disparities among the female and middle-aged groups.

Association of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy With Liver and Nonliver Complications and Long-term Mortality in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C

IMPORTANCE

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and its complications are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. However, large-scale data analysis of the long-term liver and nonliver effects of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment has been limited.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of hepatitis C virus elimination through DAA treatment with the risk of liver and nonliver morbidity and mortality during long-term follow-up among a large nationwide cohort of insured patients with CHC in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 245 596 adult patients with CHC using data from the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database, 2010 to 2021. Of the total cohort, 40 654 patients had received 1 or more prescriptions for DAA medication (without interferon), and 204 942 patients were untreated.

EXPOSURE

Treatment with a DAA.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver decompensation, relevant nonliver events (nonliver cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease), and overall mortality.

RESULTS

The DAA-treated cohort (vs untreated) were older (mean [SD] age, 59.9 [10.8] vs 58.5 [13.0] years; P < .001); more likely to be male (25 060 [62%] vs 119 727 [58%] men; P < .001) and White (23 937 [59%] vs 115 973 [57%]; P < .001) individuals; and more likely to have diabetes (10 680 [26%] vs 52 091 [25%]; P < .001) or cirrhosis (17 971 [44%] vs 60 094 [29%]; P < .001). Comparing DAA-treated with untreated patients, the incidence (per 1000 person-years) of liver outcomes (eg, decompensation, 28.2 [95% CI, 27.0-29.4] vs 40.8 [95% CI, 40.1-41.5]; P < .001, and HCC in compensated cirrhosis, 20.1 [95% CI, 18.4-21.9] vs 41.8 [95% CI, 40.3-43.3]; P < .001) and nonliver outcomes (eg, diabetes, 30.2 [95% CI, 35.4-37.7] vs 37.2 [95% CI, 36.6-37.9]; P < .001; and chronic kidney disease, 31.1 [95% CI, 29.9-32.2] vs 34.1 [95% CI, 33.5-34.7]; P < .001) were significantly lower in treated patients. The all-cause mortality rates per 1000 person-years were also significantly lower in DAA-treated compared with untreated patients (mortality, 36.5 [95% CI, 35.4-37.7] vs 64.7 [95% CI, 63.9-65.4]; P < .001). In multivariable regression analysis, DAA treatment was independently associated with a significant decrease in the risk of liver (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for HCC, 0.73; decompensation, 0.36), nonliver (aHR for diabetes, 0.74; chronic kidney disease, 0.81; cardiovascular disease, 0.90; nonliver cancer, 0.89), and mortality outcomes (aHR, 0.43).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this retrospective cohort study indicate that DAA treatment for insured patients with CHC was associated with improved liver- and nonliver outcomes, and ultimately, with long-term overall survival.

Associations of psychological wellbeing with COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality in adults aged 50 years or older from 25 European countries and Israel

Background

Lower psychological wellbeing is associated with poor outcomes in a variety of diseases and healthy populations. However, no study has investigated whether psychological wellbeing is associated with the outcomes of COVID-19. This study aimed to determine whether individuals with lower psychological wellbeing are more at risk for poor outcomes of COVID-19.

Methods

Data were from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) in 2017 and SHARE's two COVID-19 surveys in June-September 2020 and June-August 2021. Psychological wellbeing was measured using the CASP-12 scale in 2017. The associations of the CASP-12 score with COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality were assessed using logistic models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, household income, education level, and chronic conditions. Sensitivity analyses were performed by imputing missing data or excluding cases whose diagnosis of COVID-19 was solely based on symptoms. A confirmatory analysis was conducted using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). Data analysis took place in October 2022.

Results

In total, 3,886 individuals of 50 years of age or older with COVID-19 were included from 25 European countries and Israel, with 580 hospitalized (14.9%) and 100 deaths (2.6%). Compared with individuals in tertile 3 (highest) of the CASP-12 score, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of COVID-19 hospitalization were 1.81 (95% CI, 1.41-2.31) for those in tertile 1 (lowest) and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.07-1.75) for those in tertile 2. As for COVID-19 mortality, the adjusted ORs were 2.05 (95% CI, 1.12-3.77) for tertile 1 and 1.78 (95% CI, 0.98-3.23) for tertile 2, compared with tertile 3. The results were relatively robust to missing data or the exclusion of cases solely based on symptoms. This inverse association of the CASP-12 score with COVID-19 hospitalization risk was also observed in ELSA.

Conclusion

This study shows that lower psychological wellbeing is independently associated with increased risks of COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality in European adults aged 50 years or older. Further study is needed to validate these associations in recent and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and other populations.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on liver disease-related mortality rates in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The pandemic has resulted in an increase of deaths not directly related to COVID-19 infection. We aimed to use a national death dataset to determine the impact of the pandemic on people with liver disease in the USA, focusing on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

Using data from the National Vital Statistic System from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) platform and ICD-10 codes, we identified deaths associated with liver disease. We evaluated observed vs. predicted mortality for 2020-2021 based on trends from 2010-2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analysis.

RESULTS

Among 626,090 chronic liver disease-related deaths between 2010 and 2021, Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for ALD dramatically increased between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021 (annual percentage change [APC] 3.5% to 17.6%, p <0.01), leading to a higher observed ASMR (per 100,000 persons) than predicted for 2020 (15.67 vs. 13.04) and 2021 (17.42 vs. 13.41). ASMR for NAFLD also increased during the pandemic (APC: 14.5%), whereas the rates for hepatitis B and C decreased. Notably, the ASMR rise for ALD was most pronounced in non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Alaska Indians/Native Americans (APC: 11.7%, 10.8%, 18.0%, all p <0.05), with similar but less critical findings for NAFLD, whereas rates were steady for non-Hispanic Asians throughout 2010-2021 (APC: 4.9%). The ASMR rise for ALD was particularly severe for the 25-44 age group (APC: 34.6%, vs. 13.7% and 12.6% for 45-64 and ≥65, all p <0.01), which were also all higher than pre-COVID-19 rates (all p <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

ASMRs for ALD and NAFLD increased at an alarming rate during the COVID-19 pandemic with the largest disparities among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The pandemic has led to an increase of deaths directly and indirectly related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. As shown in this study, age-standardised mortality rates for alcohol-associated liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease substantially increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and far exceeded expected levels predicted from past trends, especially among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations. However, much of this increase was not directly related to COVID-19. Therefore, for the ongoing pandemic as well as its recovery phase, adherence to regular monitoring and care for people with chronic liver disease should be prioritised and awareness should be raised among patients, care providers, healthcare systems, and public health policy makers.

Excess risk for acute myocardial infarction mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a detrimental impact on the healthcare system. Our study armed to assess the extent and the disparity in excess acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-associated mortality during the pandemic, through the recent Omicron outbreak. Using data from the CDC's National Vital Statistics System, we identified 1 522 669 AMI-associated deaths occurring between 4/1/2012 and 3/31/2022. Accounting for seasonality, we compared age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for AMI-associated deaths between prepandemic and pandemic periods, including observed versus predicted ASMR, and examined temporal trends by demographic groups and region. Before the pandemic, AMI-associated mortality rates decreased across all subgroups. These trends reversed during the pandemic, with significant rises seen for the youngest-aged females and males even through the most recent period of the Omicron surge (10/2021-3/2022). The SAPC in the youngest and middle-age group in AMI-associated mortality increased by 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6%-9.1%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.1%-6.8%), respectively. The excess death, defined as the difference between the observed and the predicted mortality rates, was most pronounced for the youngest (25-44 years) aged decedents, ranging from 23% to 34% for the youngest compared to 13%-18% for the oldest age groups. The trend of mortality suggests that age and sex disparities have persisted even through the recent Omicron surge, with excess AMI-associated mortality being most pronounced in younger-aged adults.

Liver Complications in Untreated Treatment-Ineligible versus Treated Treatment-Eligible Patients with Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of patients who do not meet treatment criteria for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) later develop adverse outcomes such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to determine whether current practice guidelines adequately identify CHB patients who will benefit from antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence of adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis and/or HCC) in untreated treatment-ineligible (at baseline and throughout follow-up) versus treated treatment-eligible patients according to standard American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 guidance (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] >70/50 U/L for men/women plus hepatitis B virus [HBV] DNA >20,000/2,000 IU/mL for HBeAg+/-) and with a sensitivity analyses using a lower threshold (ALT >40 U/L and HBV DNA >2,000 IU/mL).

RESULTS

We reviewed records of 5,840 patients from 5 clinics in California and identified 2,987 treatment-naive non-HCC CHB patients. Of those, 271 patients remained untreated treatment-ineligible, 514 patients were treatment-eligible and initiated treatment, with 5-year cumulative adverse liver incidences of 12.5% versus 7.2%, p = 0.074. On multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, albumin, platelet count, and HBV DNA, compared to treated treatment-eligible patients, untreated treatment-ineligible patients had a significantly higher risk of adverse liver outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.03-5.48, p = 0.04) in main analysis by AASLD 2018 criteria but not in sensitivity analysis using the lower treatment threshold (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Patients never meeting standard AASLD 2018 criteria for antiviral therapy and never treated had twice the risk of developing cirrhosis and/or HCC when compared to eligible and treated patients.

Characteristics and Treatment Rate of Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the Direct-Acting Antiviral Era and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Clinical data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates in the United States are sparse.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate HCV treatment rates in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used data from the deidentified Optum Cliniformatics Data Mart Database (2014-2021) on patients with HCV in the DAA and COVID-19 eras. The database includes patients with private health insurance in the US.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The treatment rate and changes over time were assessed with adjusted log-binomial regression, and factors associated with treatment were examined using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 133 348 patients with HCV (79 567 [59.7%] men; mean [SD] age, 59.7 [12.3] years; 4448 [3.3%] Asian, 24 662 [18.5%] Black, and 74 750 [56.1%] White individuals) were included; 38 180 (26.8%) had HCV RNA data, and of those, 20 277 (53.1%) had positive HCV RNA. Overall, 13 214 patients with positive HCV RNA tests (65.2%) received DAA treatment; 6456 of 6634 patients treated with DAAs (97.3%) achieved sustained virologic response. After adjusting for age, sex, and race and ethnicity, the treatment rate in 2018 was 0.5 times greater than the rate in 2014 (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.42-1.59) but declined after 2018, decreasing from 64.8% to 61.2%, and especially after 2019, when it decreased to less than 60% (P < .001). The number of patients with viremic HCV identified in between April 2020 and March 2021 also decreased to 496 from 2761 and 3258 in the preceding 2 years. Receiving care from a gastroenterologist or infectious disease specialist with advanced care practitioner (ie, nurse practitioner, physician assistant, or clinical nurse specialist) was independently associated with greater odds of DAA treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.07-1.50). Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were 31% less likely to receive treatment compared with those without (aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, less than two-thirds of insured patients with viremic HCV received DAA treatment, with declines in both the treatment rate and the number of viremic HCV diagnoses since 2019 and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further efforts are needed to increase HCV diagnosis and treatment, especially for those with cirrhosis and HCC. An urgent call for nationwide actions to improve access to DAA treatment, community outreach programs, and specialists through referral pipelines is needed in the United States to stay on track to meet the World Health Organization goal of reducing the burden of viral hepatitis with the eventual goal to eliminate viral hepatitis.

Excess diabetes mellitus-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a critical risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection contributes to worsening glycemic control. The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted the delivery of care for patients with diabetes. We aimed to determine the trend of DM-related deaths during the pandemic.

METHODS

In this serial population-based study between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2021, mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from the National Vital Statistics System dataset was analyzed. Decedents with DM as the underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificate were defined as DM-related deaths. Excess deaths were estimated by comparing observed versus expected age-standardized mortality rates derived from mortality during 2006-2019 with linear and polynomial regression models. The trends of mortality were quantified with joinpoint regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and state.

FINDINGS

Among 4·25 million DM-related deaths during 2006-2021, there was a significant surge of more than 30% in mortality during the pandemic, from 106·8 (per 100,000 persons) in 2019 to 144·1 in 2020 and 148·3 in 2021. Adults aged 25-44 years had the most pronounced rise in mortality. Widened racial/ethnic disparity was observed, with Hispanics demonstrating the highest excess deaths (67·5%; 95% CI 60·9-74·7%), almost three times that of non-Hispanic whites (23·9%; 95% CI 21·2-26·7%).

INTERPRETATION

The United States saw an increase in DM-related mortality during the pandemic. The disproportionate rise in young adults and the widened racial/ethnic disparity warrant urgent preventative interventions from diverse stakeholders.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

2019 Global NAFLD Prevalence: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The increasing rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus may lead to increased prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to determine the current and recent trends on the global and regional prevalence of NAFLD.

METHODS

Systematic search from inception to March 26, 2020 was performed without language restrictions. Two authors independently performed screening and data extraction. We performed meta-regression to determine trends in NAFLD prevalence.

RESULTS

We identified 17,244 articles from literature search and included 245 eligible studies involving 5,399,254 individuals. The pooled global prevalence of NAFLD was 29.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28.6%-31.1%); of these, 82.5% of included articles used ultrasound to diagnose NAFLD, with prevalence of 30.6% (95% CI, 29.2%-32.0%). South America (3 studies, 5716 individuals) and North America (4 studies, 18,236 individuals) had the highest NAFLD prevalence at 35.7% (95% CI, 34.0%-37.5%) and 35.3% (95% CI, 25.4%-45.9%), respectively. From 1991 to 2019, trend analysis showed NAFLD increased from 21.9% to 37.3% (yearly increase of 0.7%, P < .0001), with South America showing the most rapid change of 2.7% per year, followed by Europe at 1.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite regional variation, the global prevalence of NAFLD is increasing overall. Policy makers must work toward reversing the current trends by increasing awareness of NAFLD and promoting healthy lifestyle environments.

Clinical Profiles of Asians with NAFLD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

NAFLD is increasingly prevalent in Asia, where people suffer more metabolic comorbidities at a lower body mass index (BMI), suggesting potential differences in their clinical profile. Therefore, we attempted to characterize the clinical profile of Asians with NAFLD via a meta-analytic approach.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases from January 1, 2000, to January 17, 2019. Two authors independently reviewed and selected 104 articles (2,247,754 persons) that identified NAFLD in Asians and reported relevant data, especially BMI and ALT, and excluded individuals with other liver disease and excessive alcohol consumption. Individual patient-level data were obtained from seven cohorts in Asia to complement meta-analyzed data.

RESULTS

Overall, the mean age was 52.07 (95% CI: 51.28-52.85) years, with those from Southeast Asia (42.66, 95% CI: 32.23-53.11) being significantly younger. The mean BMI was 26.2 kg/m2, higher in moderate-severe versus mild hepatic steatosis (28.3 vs. 25.7) patients and NFS ≥ -1.455 versus <-1.455 (27.09 vs. 26.02), with 34% having nonobese NAFLD. The mean ALT was 31.74 U/L, higher in NFS < -1.455 versus ≥-1.455 (33.74 vs. 27.83), though no differences were found by obesity or steatosis severity. The majority of males (85.7%) and females (60.7%) had normal to minimally elevated ALT (1-1.5 × 95% ULN). Individual patient-level data analysis (N = 7,668) demonstrated similar results.

CONCLUSION

About one-third of Asians with NAFLD were nonobese, and the majority did not have markedly elevated ALT. Therefore, abnormal ALT or BMI is not recommended as a criterion for NAFLD screening in this population. Additionally, there were significant differences in the clinical profiles of NAFLD among the different regions of Asia.

Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040.

METHODS

Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality.

RESULTS

The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85).

CONCLUSION

By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.