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Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for predicting direct-acting antiviral treatment failure among patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. Sci Rep 2022; 12:18094. [PMID: 36302828 PMCID: PMC9613877 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22819-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the availability of efficacious direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, the number of people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) continues to rise, and HCV remains a leading cause of liver-related morbidity, liver transplantation, and mortality. We developed and validated machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict DAA treatment failure. Using the HCV-TARGET registry of adults who initiated all-oral DAA treatment, we developed elastic net (EN), random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and feedforward neural network (FNN) ML algorithms. Model performances were compared with multivariable logistic regression (MLR) by assessing C statistics and other prediction evaluation metrics. Among 6525 HCV-infected adults, 308 patients (4.7%) experienced DAA treatment failure. ML models performed similarly in predicting DAA treatment failure (C statistic [95% CI]: EN, 0.74 [0.69-0.79]; RF, 0.74 [0.69-0.80]; GBM, 0.72 [0.67-0.78]; FNN, 0.75 [0.70-0.80]), and all 4 outperformed MLR (C statistic [95% CI]: 0.51 [0.46-0.57]), and EN used the fewest predictors (n = 27). With Youden index, the EN had 58.4% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity, and nine patients were needed to evaluate to identify 1 DAA treatment failure. Over 60% treatment failure were classified in top three risk decile subgroups. EN-identified predictors included male sex, treatment < 8 weeks, treatment discontinuation due to adverse events, albumin level < 3.5 g/dL, total bilirubin level > 1.2 g/dL, advanced liver disease, and use of tobacco, alcohol, or vitamins. Addressing modifiable factors of DAA treatment failure may reduce the burden of retreatment. Machine learning algorithms have the potential to inform public health policies regarding curative treatment of HCV.
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Ali ME, Halby HM, Ali MY, Hassan EA, El-Mokhtar MA, Sayed IM, Thabet MM, Fouad M, El-Ashmawy AM, Mahran ZG. Role of Serum Vitamin D, Interleukin 13, and microRNA-135a in Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Treatment Failure in Egyptian HCV-Infected Patients Receiving Direct Antiviral Agents. Viruses 2021; 13:2008. [PMID: 34696438 PMCID: PMC8539757 DOI: 10.3390/v13102008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2021] [Revised: 09/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are used for hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. However, treatment failure and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development following treatment was reported. In this study, we assessed the role of serum vitamin D, interleukin 13 (IL-13), and microRNA-135a in the prediction of treatment failure with DAA and HCC development among Egyptian HCV-infected patients. A total of 950 patients with HCV-related chronic liver disease underwent DAA treatment. Before DAAs, serum vitamin D and IL-13 were determined by ELISA, and gene expression of miRNA-135a was assessed in serum by real-time PCR. The predictive abilities of these markers were determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved in 92.6% of HCV-infected patients (responders). High viral load, IL-13, miRNA-135a, and low vitamin D levels were associated with treatment failure and HCC development. HCC development was recorded in non-responders, but not in the responders (35.7% vs. 0% p < 0.001). In conclusion: serum IL-13, Vitamin D, and miRNA-135a could be potential biomarkers in monitoring DAA treatment and HCC prediction. DAAs-induced SVR may decrease the incidence of HCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamed E. Ali
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Al-Azhar University, Assiut 71524, Egypt; (M.E.A.); (H.M.H.); (M.Y.A.)
| | - Hamada M. Halby
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Al-Azhar University, Assiut 71524, Egypt; (M.E.A.); (H.M.H.); (M.Y.A.)
| | - Mamdouh Yones Ali
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Al-Azhar University, Assiut 71524, Egypt; (M.E.A.); (H.M.H.); (M.Y.A.)
| | - Elham Ahmed Hassan
- Department of Gastroenterology and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt;
| | - Mohamed A. El-Mokhtar
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt; (M.A.E.-M.); (I.M.S.)
| | - Ibrahim M. Sayed
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt; (M.A.E.-M.); (I.M.S.)
| | - Marwa M. Thabet
- Department of Clinical Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt;
| | - Magdy Fouad
- Hepato-Gastroenterology Unit, Tropical Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, El-Minia University, Minya 61519, Egypt;
| | - Ahmed M. El-Ashmawy
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt;
| | - Zainab Gaber Mahran
- Department of Gastroenterology and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt;
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Salhab A, Amer J, Yinying L, Safadi R. 25(OH) D3 alleviate liver NK cytotoxicity in acute but not in chronic fibrosis model of BALB/c mice due to modulations in vitamin D receptor. BMC Gastroenterol 2020; 20:102. [PMID: 32276660 PMCID: PMC7149903 DOI: 10.1186/s12876-020-01248-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Low 25-Hydroxy-vitamin-D; “25(OH)-D3” serum and vitamin D receptor (VDR) levels were recently correlated to advanced fibrosis. However, VDR mechanism in liver fibrosis modulations is not well understood. In this study, we aimed to evaluate changes in liver NK cells cytotoxicity due to modulations in VDR in CCl4 fibrosis model following 25(OH) D3 injections. Methods Carbon-tetrachloride (CCl4) hepatic-fibrosis was induced in BALB/c mice for 1 and 4 weeks as an acute and chronic fibrosis model, respectively. Along 1th to 4th weeks, vitamin D were i.p injected/2x week. Liver were assessed histologically and for proteins quantification for VDR and αSMA expressions. In vitro, potential killing of NK cells were evaluated following co-culture with primary-hepatic-stellate-cells (pHSCs) obtained from BALB/c WT-mice. Results Systemic inflammation and hepatic-fibrosis increased along 4 weeks of CCl4 as indicated by serum ALT and αSMA expressions (P < 0.02) as well as histological assessments, respectively. These results were associated with increased NK1.1 activations and hypercalcemia. While vitamin D administrations delayed fibrosis of early stages, vitamin D worsen hepatic-fibrosis of late stages of CCl4. In week 4, no further activations of NK cells were seen following vitamin D injections and were associated with down-expressions of VDR (1.7 Fold, P < 0.004) indicating the inability of vitamin D to ameliorate hepatic fibrosis. In vitro, NK cells from the chronic model of CCl4 did not affect pHSCs killing and fail to reduce fibrosis. Conclusion Vitamin D alleviate liver NK cytotoxicity in acute but not in chronic fibrosis model due to modulations in vitamin D receptor and calcium. Hypercalcemia associated with late fibrosis may inhibited VDR levels, however, may not explain the profibrogenic effects of vitamin D.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Salhab
- Research center for liver diseases, Liver & Gastroenterology Units; Division of Medicine, Hadassah -Hebrew University Hospital- Jerusalem, POB12000, Ein-Kerem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Johnny Amer
- Research center for liver diseases, Liver & Gastroenterology Units; Division of Medicine, Hadassah -Hebrew University Hospital- Jerusalem, POB12000, Ein-Kerem, Jerusalem, Israel.
| | - Lu Yinying
- Comprehensive Liver Cancer Center, The Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Rifaat Safadi
- Research center for liver diseases, Liver & Gastroenterology Units; Division of Medicine, Hadassah -Hebrew University Hospital- Jerusalem, POB12000, Ein-Kerem, Jerusalem, Israel
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Falak S, Aftab L, Saeed M, Islam A. Prevalence of Vitamin-D deficiency is related to severity of liver damage in Hepatitis-C patients. Pak J Med Sci 2020; 36:445-450. [PMID: 32292450 PMCID: PMC7150413 DOI: 10.12669/pjms.36.3.1490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Serum Vitamin-D plays pivotal role in inflammatory and infectious diseases; among them liver infections are more distinct. This study was aimed to determine Vitamin-D status in HCV-infected patients and healthy controls in Faisalabad, Pakistan. Methods We performed randomized cross-sectional study of 74 individuals from 20th August, 2017 to 20th February 2018 at The University of Faisalabad and Dar us Shifa Clinic, Faisalabad. Fifty-one patients were hepatitis C RNA-PCR positive (22 compensated cirrhotic and 29 decompensated cirrhotic patients). In addition, 23 subjects without liver disease were recruited as healthy control. HCV RNA-PCR was performed by ARTUS ® HCV QS-RGQ V1. Vitamin-D levels were measured by chemiluminescence. SPSS version 20 was used for statistical analysis. Results The mean level of Vitamin-D was significantly lower in HCV patients in compensated and decompensated cirrhotic patients (26.85 ng/mL & 20.65 ng/mL respectively) as compared to healthy controls (30.41 ng/mL). This study showed sub optimal level of Vitamin-D in 76.5% of HCV patients. Vitamin-D insufficiency (21-29 ng/mL) as prevalent among healthy individuals (47.8%) as well as in HCV patients (39.2%) (P < 0.001). In addition, Vitamin-D levels showed inverse relationship with more severe conditions of liver disease as 55.2% of decompensated cirrhosis patients were sufferer of Vitamin-D deficiency as compared to 13.6% deficiency of Vitamin-D in compensated cirrhotic group (P <0.0001). Conclusion Suboptimal levels of Vitamin-D (deficiency or insufficiency) are prevalent in patients having hepatitis C infection as compared to healthy controls. Deficiency of Vitamin-D was directly associated with severity of disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadia Falak
- Dr. Sadia Falak, PhD. School of Pharmacy, The University of Faisalabad, Faisalabad-38040, Pakistan
| | - Lubna Aftab
- Dr. Lubna Aftab, MBBS. Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Sciences, University Medical and Dental College, Faisalabad-38040, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Saeed
- Dr. Muhammad Saeed, PhD. Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Sciences, University Medical and Dental College, Faisalabad-38040, Pakistan
| | - Aftab Islam
- Dr. Aftab Islam, MBBS. Medical Practitioner, Dar-us-Shifa Clinic, Faisalabad-38040, Pakistan
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Pan CQ, Gayam V, Rabinovich C, Normatov M, Fidman B, Wang D, Garlapati P. Efficacy of Direct-Acting Antivirals for Chronic Hepatitis C in a Large Cohort of Older Adults in the United States. J Am Geriatr Soc 2019; 68:379-387. [PMID: 31647119 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.16206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2019] [Revised: 09/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Data on the virologic response and tolerability of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking in older people because these individuals are underrepresented in clinical trials. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and tolerability of DAA regimens in older individuals in a large cohort of real-life clinical practice. METHODS In this retrospective study, patients with chronic hepatitis C infection between 2017 and 2018 were divided into patients aged 65 years and older and those younger than 65 years. We evaluated the sustained virologic response rates (SVRs) in both groups. Further subgroup analyses on the SVRs for patients aged 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 years and older were performed. We also analyzed the predictors of treatment response in older individuals. RESULTS Among 1151 eligible patients, 516 were in the older group and 635 were in the younger group. The overall treatment response in the entire cohort was 97.7%. A significantly higher percentage of patients presented with advanced stages of fibrosis in the older group (53.1% vs 39.5%; P = <.001). The SVR rates were similar between the two groups (98.3% vs 97.7%; P = .18). In multivariate models, age was not predictive of SVR after adjusting for confounders. Subgroup analyses in the age groups of 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and older than 85 years showed similar treatment response rates (97.4%, 97.2%, and 86.7, respectively; P = .06) and advanced fibrosis (50.8%, 61.5%, and 53.3%, respectively; P = .14). CONCLUSION Although older people exhibit a significantly higher frequency of fibrosis, DAAs produce high rates of SVR in all age groups, and the age of the patient does not seem to have a significant impact on the efficacy of DAAs including patients in the oldest age category (≥75 y). Treatment should not be withheld in older individuals. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:379-387, 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calvin Q Pan
- Center of Liver Diseases, Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Ditan Hospital, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, NYU Langone Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York
| | - Vijay Gayam
- Interfaith Medical Center, SUNY Downstate University Hospital, Brooklyn, New York
| | | | | | | | - Dan Wang
- St. John's University, Jamaica, New York
| | - Pavani Garlapati
- Interfaith Medical Center, SUNY Downstate University Hospital, Brooklyn, New York
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