A novel score in the prediction of rhythm outcome after ablation of atrial fibrillation: The SUCCESS score

2024 European Heart Rhythm Association/Heart Rhythm Society/Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society/Latin American Heart Rhythm Society expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation

In the last three decades, ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) has become an evidence-based safe and efficacious treatment for managing the most common cardiac arrhythmia. In 2007, the first joint expert consensus document was issued, guiding healthcare professionals involved in catheter or surgical AF ablation. Mounting research evidence and technological advances have resulted in a rapidly changing landscape in the field of catheter and surgical AF ablation, thus stressing the need for regularly updated versions of this partnership which were issued in 2012 and 2017. Seven years after the last consensus, an updated document was considered necessary to define a contemporary framework for selection and management of patients considered for or undergoing catheter or surgical AF ablation. This consensus is a joint effort from collaborating cardiac electrophysiology societies, namely the European Heart Rhythm Association, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), the Asia Pacific HRS, and the Latin American HRS.

Recurrence After Atrial Fibrillation Ablation and Investigational Biomarkers of Cardiac Remodeling

BACKGROUND

Recurrence after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation remains common. We evaluated the association between recurrence and levels of biomarkers of cardiac remodeling, and their ability to improve recurrence prediction when added to a clinical prediction model.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood samples collected before de novo catheter ablation were analyzed. Levels of bone morphogenetic protein-10, angiopoietin-2, fibroblast growth factor-23, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7, myosin-binding protein C3, growth differentiation factor-15, interleukin-6, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity troponin T were measured. Recurrence was defined as ≥30 seconds of an atrial arrhythmia 3 to 12 months postablation. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using biomarker levels along with clinical covariates: APPLE score (Age >65 years, Persistent AF, imPaired eGFR [<60 ml/min/1.73m2], LA diameter ≥43 mm, EF <50%; which includes age, left atrial diameter, left ventricular ejection fraction, persistent atrial fibrillation, and estimated glomerular filtration rate), preablation rhythm, sex, height, body mass index, presence of an implanted continuous monitor, year of ablation, and additional linear ablation. A total of 1873 participants were included. A multivariable logistic regression showed an association between recurrence and levels of angiopoietin-2 (odds ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.15], P=0.007) and interleukin-6 (odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.003-1.03]; P=0.02). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of a model that only contained clinical predictors was 0.711. The addition of any of the 9 studied biomarkers to the predictive model did not result in a statistically significant improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher angiopoietin-2 and interleukin-6 levels were associated with recurrence after atrial fibrillation ablation in multivariable modeling. However, the addition of biomarkers to a clinical prediction model did not significantly improve recurrence prediction.

The Use of Artificial Intelligence for Detecting and Predicting Atrial Arrhythmias Post Catheter Ablation

Catheter ablation (CA) is considered as one of the most effective methods technique for eradicating persistent and abnormal cardiac arrhythmias. Nevertheless, in some cases, these arrhythmias are not treated properly, resulting in their recurrences. If left untreated, they may result in complications such as strokes, heart failure, or death. Until recently, the primary techniques for diagnosing recurrent arrhythmias following CA were the findings predisposing to the changes caused by the arrhythmias on cardiac imaging and electrocardiograms during follow-up visits, or if patients reported having palpitations or chest discomfort after the ablation. However, these follow-ups may be time-consuming and costly, and they may not always determine the root cause of the recurrences. With the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), these follow-up visits can be effectively shortened, and improved methods for predicting the likelihood of recurring arrhythmias after their ablation procedures can be developed. AI can be divided into two categories: machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), the latter of which is a subset of ML. ML and DL models have been used in several studies to demonstrate their ability to predict and identify cardiac arrhythmias using clinical variables, electrophysiological characteristics, and trends extracted from imaging data. AI has proven to be a valuable aid for cardiologists due to its ability to compute massive amounts of data and detect subtle changes in electric signals and cardiac images, which may potentially increase the risk of recurrent arrhythmias after CA. Despite the fact that these studies involving AI have generated promising outcomes comparable to or superior to human intervention, they have primarily focused on atrial fibrillation while atrial flutter (AFL) and atrial tachycardia (AT) were the subjects of relatively few AI studies. Therefore, the aim of this review is to investigate the interaction of AI algorithms, electrophysiological characteristics, imaging data, risk score calculators, and clinical variables in predicting cardiac arrhythmias following an ablation procedure. This review will also discuss the implementation of these algorithms to enable the detection and prediction of AFL and AT recurrences following CA.

Development and validation of a novel risk model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence risk among paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients after the first catheter ablation

AIMS

Several models have been developed to predict the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). However, these models are of poor quality from the start. We, therefore, aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for post-operative recurrence of AF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a study including 433 patients undergoing the first circumferential pulmonary vein isolation (CPVI) procedure, independent predictors of AF recurrence were retrospectively identified. Using the Cox regression of designated variables, a risk model was developed in a random sample of 70% of the patients (development cohort) and validated in the remaining (validation cohort) 30%. The accuracy and discriminative power of the predictive models were evaluated in both cohorts.

RESULTS

During the established 12 months follow-up, 134 patients (31%) recurred. Six variables were identified in the model including age, coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), hypertension, transient ischemic attack (TIA) or cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and left atrial diameter (LAD). The model showed good discriminative power in the development cohort, with an AUC of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.86). Furthermore, the model shows good agreement between actual and predicted probabilities in the calibration curve. The above results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis (DCA) for this model also demonstrates the advantages of clinical application.

CONCLUSION

A simple risk model to predict AF recurrence after ablation was developed and validated, showing good discriminative power and calibration.

A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score

Background

At present, catheter ablation is an effective method for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurrence is an inevitable problem after catheter ablation. To identify patients who are prone to relapse, we developed a predictive model that allows clinicians to closely monitor these patients and treat them with different personalized treatment plans.

Materials and methods

A total of 1,065 patients who underwent AF catheter ablation between January 2015 and December 2018 were consecutively included in this study, which examines the results of a 2-year follow-up. Patients with AF were divided into development cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out on the potential risk factors. Specific risk factors were used to draw the nomogram according to the above results. Finally, we verified the performance of our model compared with CHADS2 and CHA₂DS₂-Vasc scores by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve and plotted the decision analysis curve (DAC).

Results

A total of 316 patients experienced AF recurrence. After univariate and multivariate analyses, AF history (H), age (A), snoring (S), body mass index (BMI) (B), anteroposterior diameter of left atrial (LA) (L), and persistent AF (P) were included in our prediction model. Our model showed a better performance compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, and the area under ROC curve (95%CI) was 0.7668 (0.7298–0.8037) vs. 0.6225 (0.5783–0.6666) and 0.6267 (0.5836–0.6717).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram (HASBLP score) for predicting AF recurrence after the first catheter ablation at a 2-year follow-up, which can be used as a tool to guide future follow-up of patients. However, its usefulness needs further validation.

P-Wave Beat-to-Beat Analysis to Predict Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence after Catheter Ablation

The identification of patients prone to atrial fibrillation (AF) relapse after catheter ablation is essential for better patient selection and risk stratification. The current prospective cohort study aims to validate a novel P-wave index based on beat-to-beat (B2B) P-wave morphological and wavelet analysis designed to detect patients with low burden AF as a predictor of AF recurrence within a year after successful catheter ablation. From a total of 138 consecutive patients scheduled for AF ablation, 12-lead ECG and 10 min vectorcardiogram (VCG) recordings were obtained. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with higher B2B P-wave index had a two-fold risk for AF recurrence (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.24–4.44, p: 0.010), along with prolonged P-wave, interatrial block, early AF recurrence, female gender, heart failure history, previous stroke, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score. Multivariate analysis of assessable predictors before ablation revealed that B2B P-wave index, along with heart failure history and a history of previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, are independent predicting factors of atrial fibrillation recurrence. Further studies are needed to assess the predictive value of the B2B index with greater accuracy and evaluate a possible relationship with atrial substrate analysis.

Heart Rate Variability and Clinical Features as Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Catheter Ablation: A Pilot Study

Single-procedure catheter ablation success rate is as low as 52% in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. This study evaluated the feasibility of using clinical data and heart rate variability (HRV) features extracted from an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) to predict recurrences in patients prior to undergoing catheter ablation for AF. HRV-derived features were extracted from the 500 beats preceding the AF onset and from the first 2 min of the last AF episode recorded by an ICM of 74 patients (67% male; 57 ± 12 years; 26% non-paroxysmal AF; 57% AF recurrence) before undergoing their first AF catheter ablation. Two types of classification algorithm were studied to predict AF recurrence: single classifiers including support vector machines, classification and regression trees, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers as well as ensemble classifiers. The sequential forward floating search algorithm was used to select the optimum feature set for each classification method. The optimum weighted voting method, which used an optimum combination of the single classifiers, was the best overall classifier (accuracy = 0.82, sensitivity = 0.76, and specificity = 0.87). Clinical and HRV features can be used to predict rhythm outcome using an ensemble classifier which would enable a more effective pre-ablation patient triage that could reduce the economic and personal burden of the procedure by increasing the success rate of first catheter ablation.

Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure: from Evidences to Guidelines

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation in heart failure seems to be the way to improve the quality of life, life expectance, and prognosis. In this review, we outline the growing role of this therapy and which patients can benefit from it.

RECENT FINDINGS

While previous studies comparing rate control and rhythm control had not demonstrated the superiority of rhythm control in the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure, recent findings seem to demonstrate that catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation reduces mortality and hospitalization for heart failure and improves the quality of life, when compared to medical therapy alone. An early rhythm-control strategy in atrial fibrillation may reduce cardiovascular death, stroke, hospitalization for HF, or acute coronary syndrome. Catheter ablation in heart failure is an effective and safe solution to obtain a rhythm control and, therefore, to improve outcomes. A better selection of the patients could help to avoid futile procedures and to identify patients requiring a closer follow-up, to redo procedures, or the addition of antiarrhythmic drugs.

Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models

AIMS

We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified.

CONCLUSION

Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.