Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases

Producing context specific land cover and land use maps of human-modified tropical forest landscapes for infectious disease applications

Satellite-based land cover mapping plays an important role in understanding changes in ecosystems and biodiversity. There are global land cover products available, however for region specific studies of drivers of infectious disease patterns, these can lack the spatial and thematic detail or accuracy required to capture key ecological processes. To overcome this, we produced our own Landsat derived 30 m maps for three districts in India's Western Ghats (Wayanad, Shivamogga and Sindhudurg). The maps locate natural vegetation types, plantation types, agricultural areas, water bodies and settlements in the landscape, all relevant to functional resource use of species involved in infectious disease dynamics. The maps represent the mode of 50 classification iterations and include a spatial measure of class stability derived from these iterations. Overall accuracies for Wayanad, Shivamogga and Sindhudurg are 94.7 % (SE 1.2 %), 88.9 % (SE 1.2 %) and 88.8 % (SE 2 %) respectively. Class classification stability was high across all three districts and the individual classes that matter for defining key interfaces between human habitation, forests, crop, and plantation cultivation, were generally well separated. A comparison with the 300 m global ESA CCI land cover map highlights lower ESA CCI class accuracies and the importance of increased spatial resolution when dealing with complex landscape mosaics. A comparison with the 30 m Global Forest Change product reveals an accurate mapping of forest loss and different dynamics between districts (i.e., Forests lost to Built-up versus Forests lost to Plantations), demonstrating an interesting complementarity between our maps and the % tree cover Global Forest Change product. When studying infectious disease responses to land use change in tropical forest ecosystems, we recommend using bespoke land cover/use classifications reflecting functional resource use by relevant vectors, reservoirs, and people. Alternatively, global products should be carefully validated with ground reference points representing locally relevant habitats.

High-resolution environmental and host-related factors impacting questing Ixodes scapularis at their northern range edge

The geographic range of tick populations has expanded in Canada due to climate warming and the associated poleward range shifts of their vertebrate hosts. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and snow, are known to directly affect tick abundance. Yet, biotic factors, such as the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts, may also alter tick abundance and consequent tick-borne disease risk. Here, we incorporated host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental data to evaluate the combined impact of abiotic and biotic factors on questing Ixodes scapularis abundance in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. High-resolution abiotic factors were derived from remote sensing satellites and meteorological towers, while biotic factors related to mammal hosts were derived from active surveillance data that we collected in the field. Generalized additive models were used to determine the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors on questing I. scapularis abundance. Combinations of abiotic and biotic factors were identified as important drivers of abundances of questing I. scapularis. Positive and negative linear relationships were found for questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and accumulated snow, but no effect was found for the relative abundance of white-footed mice. Positive relationships were also identified between questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and mammal species richness. Therefore, future studies that assess I. scapularis should incorporate host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental factors to determine the key drivers impacting the abundance and geographic spread of tick populations and tick-borne pathogens.

Mapping the abundance of endemic mosquito-borne diseases vectors in southern Quebec

BACKGROUND

Climate change is increasing the dispersion of mosquitoes and the spread of viruses of which some mosquitoes are the main vectors. In Quebec, the surveillance and management of endemic mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus or Eastern equine encephalitis, could be improved by mapping the areas of risk supporting vector populations. However, there is currently no active tool tailored to Quebec that can predict mosquito population abundances, and we propose, with this work, to help fill this gap.

METHODS

Four species of mosquitos were studied in this project for the period from 2003 to 2016 for the southern part of the province of Quebec: Aedes vexans (VEX), Coquillettidia perturbans (CQP), Culex pipiens-restuans group (CPR) and Ochlerotatus stimulans group (SMG) species. We used a negative binomial regression approach, including a spatial component, to model the abundances of each species or species group as a function of meteorological and land-cover variables. We tested several sets of variables combination, regional and local scale variables for landcover and different lag period for the day of capture for weather variables, to finally select one best model for each species.

RESULTS

Models selected showed the importance of the spatial component, independently of the environmental variables, at the larger spatial scale. In these models, the most important land-cover predictors that favored CQP and VEX were 'forest', and 'agriculture' (for VEX only). Land-cover 'urban' had negative impact on SMG and CQP. The weather conditions on the trapping day and previous weather conditions summarized over 30 or 90 days were preferred over a shorter period of seven days, suggesting current and long-term previous weather conditions effects on mosquito abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

The strength of the spatial component highlights the difficulties in modelling the abundance of mosquito species and the model selection shows the importance of selecting the right environmental predictors, especially when choosing the temporal and spatial scale of these variables. Climate and landscape variables were important for each species or species group, suggesting it is possible to consider their use in predicting long-term spatial variationsin the abundance of mosquitoes potentially harmful to public health in southern Quebec.

Geospatial analysis reveals a hotspot of fecal bacteria in Canadian prairie lakes linked to agricultural non-point sources

Lakes are sentinels of environmental changes within their watersheds including those induced by a changing climate and anthropogenic activities. In particular, contamination originating from point or non-point sources (NPS) within watersheds might be reflected in changes in the bacterial composition of lake water. We assessed the abundance of potentially pathogenic bacteria (PPB) sampled in 413 lakes within 8 southern Canadian ecozones that represent a wide diversity of lakes and watershed land use. The study objectives were (1) to explore the diversity of PPB; (2) to build a fecal multi-indicator from a cluster of co-occurring PPB; and (3) to predict the fecal multi-indicator over thousands of lakes. We identified bacterial taxa based on 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and clustered 33 PPB matching taxa in the Canadian ePATHogen database using a Sørensen dissimilarity index on binary data across the sampled lakes. One cluster contained Erysipelothrix, Desulfovibrio, Bacteroides, Vibrio and Acholeplasma and was related to the NPS fraction of agriculture and pasture within the watershed as its main driver and thus it was determined as the fecal multi-indicator. We subsequently developed a fecal multi-indicator predictive model across 200 212 southern Canadian lakes which explained 55.1% of the deviance. Mapping the predictions showed higher fecal multi-indicator abundances in the Prairies and Boreal Plains compared to the other ecozones. These results represent the first attempt to map a potential fecal multi-indicator at the continental scale, which may be further improved in the future. Lastly, the study demonstrates the capacity of a multi-disciplinary approach leveraging both datasets derived from remote sensing and DNA sequencing to provide mapping information for public health governmental policies.

A Geographic Information System Approach to Map Tick Exposure Risk at a Scale for Public Health Intervention

Tick-borne disease control and prevention have been largely ineffective compared to the control of other vector-borne diseases. Although control strategies exist, they are costly or ineffective at large spatial scales. We need tools to target these strategies to places of highest tick exposure risk. Here we present a geographic information system (GIS) method for mapping predicted tick exposure risk at a 200 m by 200 m resolution, appropriate for public health intervention. We followed the approach used to map tick habitat suitability over large areas. We used drag-cloth sampling to measure the density of nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis, Say (Acari: Ixodidae)) at 24 sites in Addison and Rutland Counties, VT, United States. We used a GIS to average habitat, climatological, land-use/land-cover, and abiotic characteristics over 100 m, 400 m, 1,000 m, and 2,000 m buffers around each site to evaluate which characteristic at which buffer size best predicted density of nymphal ticks (DON). The relationships between predictor variables and DON were determined with random forest models. The 100 m buffer model performed best and explained 37.7% of the variation in DON, although was highly accurate at classifying sites as having below or above average DON. This model was applied to Addison County, VT, to predict tick exposure risk at a 200 m resolution. This GIS approach to map predicted DON over a small area with fine resolution, could be used to target public health campaigns and land management practices to reduce human exposure to ticks.

Remote Sensing for International Peace and Security: Its Role and Implications

Remote sensing technology has seen a massive rise in popularity over the last two decades, becoming an integral part of our lives. Space-based satellite technologies facilitated access to the inaccessible terrains, helped humanitarian teams, support complex emergencies, and contributed to monitoring and verifying conflict zones. The scoping phase of this review investigated the utility of the role of remote sensing application to complement international peace and security activities owing to their ability to provide objective near real-time insights at the ground level. The first part of this review looks into the major research concepts and implementation of remote sensing-based techniques for international peace and security applications and presented a meta-analysis on how advanced sensor capabilities can support various aspects of peace and security. With key examples, we demonstrated how this technology assemblage enacts multiple versions of peace and security: for refugee relief operations, in armed conflicts monitoring, tracking acts of genocide, providing evidence in courts of law, and assessing contravention in human rights. The second part of this review anticipates future challenges that can hinder the applicative capabilities of remote sensing in peace and security. Varying types of sensors pose discrepancies in image classifications and issues like cost, resolution, and difficulty of ground-truth in conflict areas. With emerging technologies and sufficient secondary resources available, remote sensing plays a vital operational tool in conflict-affected areas by supporting an extensive diversity in public policy actions for peacekeeping processes.

Reaping the benefits of Open Data in public health

Open Data is part of a broad global movement that is not only advancing science and scientific communication but also transforming modern society and how decisions are made. What began with a call for Open Science and the rise of online journals has extended to Open Data, based on the premise that if reports on data are open, then the generated or supporting data should be open as well. There have been a number of advances in Open Data over the last decade, spearheaded largely by governments. A real benefit of Open Data is not simply that single databases can be used more widely; it is that these data can also be leveraged, shared and combined with other data. Open Data facilitates scientific collaboration, enriches research and advances analytical capacity to inform decisions. In the human and environmental health realms, for example, the ability to access and combine diverse data can advance early signal detection, improve analysis and evaluation, inform program and policy development, increase capacity for public participation, enable transparency and improve accountability. However, challenges remain. Enormous resources are needed to make the technological shift to open and interoperable databases accessible with common protocols and terminology. Amongst data generators and users, this shift also involves a cultural change: from regarding databases as restricted intellectual property, to considering data as a common good. There is a need to address legal and ethical considerations in making this shift. Finally, along with efforts to modify infrastructure and address the cultural, legal and ethical issues, it is important to share the information equitably and effectively. While there is great potential of the open, timely, equitable and straightforward sharing of data, fully realizing the myriad of benefits of Open Data will depend on how effectively these challenges are addressed.

The health effects of climate change: Know the risks and become part of the solutions

Climate change presents a clear and present danger to human health. Health impacts are already being demonstrated in Canada, which is warming at roughly twice the global rate. A recent United Nations Environment Emissions Gap Report noted that if countries maintain current emission efforts, emissions will exceed the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement and global warming will exceed 2ºC worldwide. An important consequence of global warming is an increase in health risks. Much can be done to prevent and mitigate the health impacts of climate change, and understanding and communicating these has been shown to be one of the best ways of motivating action. This editorial provides an overview of the some of the global and national initiatives underway to decrease emissions, and address the health risks of climate change in general, and highlights some of the national initiatives underway to mitigate the increased risk of infectious diseases in Canada in particular.