Impact of relative contraindications to home management in emergency department patients with low-risk pulmonary embolism

Developing Validated Tools to Identify Pulmonary Embolism in Electronic Databases: Rationale and Design of the PE-EHR+ Study

BACKGROUND

 Contemporary pulmonary embolism (PE) research, in many cases, relies on data from electronic health records (EHRs) and administrative databases that use International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. Natural language processing (NLP) tools can be used for automated chart review and patient identification. However, there remains uncertainty with the validity of ICD-10 codes or NLP algorithms for patient identification.

METHODS

 The PE-EHR+ study has been designed to validate ICD-10 codes as Principal Discharge Diagnosis, or Secondary Discharge Diagnoses, as well as NLP tools set out in prior studies to identify patients with PE within EHRs. Manual chart review by two independent abstractors by predefined criteria will be the reference standard. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values will be determined. We will assess the discriminatory function of code subgroups for intermediate- and high-risk PE. In addition, accuracy of NLP algorithms to identify PE from radiology reports will be assessed.

RESULTS

 A total of 1,734 patients from the Mass General Brigham health system have been identified. These include 578 with ICD-10 Principal Discharge Diagnosis codes for PE, 578 with codes in the secondary position, and 578 without PE codes during the index hospitalization. Patients within each group were selected randomly from the entire pool of patients at the Mass General Brigham health system. A smaller subset of patients will also be identified from the Yale-New Haven Health System. Data validation and analyses will be forthcoming.

CONCLUSIONS

 The PE-EHR+ study will help validate efficient tools for identification of patients with PE in EHRs, improving the reliability of efficient observational studies or randomized trials of patients with PE using electronic databases.

Sustainability of a Clinical Decision Support Intervention for Outpatient Care for Emergency Department Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism

IMPORTANCE

Physicians commonly hospitalize patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), despite eligibility for safe outpatient management. Risk stratification using electronic health record-embedded clinical decision support systems can aid physician site-of-care decision-making and increase safe outpatient management. The long-term sustainability of early improvements after the cessation of trial-based, champion-led promotion is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the sustainability of recommended site-of-care decision-making support 4 years after initial physician champion-led interventions to increase outpatient management for patients with acute PE.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in 21 US community hospitals in an integrated health system. Participants included adult patients presenting to the ED with acute PE. Study sites had participated in an original decision-support intervention trial 4 years prior to the current study period: 10 sites were intervention sites, 11 sites were controls. In that trial, decision support with champion promotion resulted in significantly higher outpatient management at intervention sites compared with controls. After trial completion, all study sites were given continued access to a modified decision-support tool without further champion-led outreach. Data were analyzed from January 2019 to February 2020.

EXPOSURES

ED treatment with a modified clinical decision support tool.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was frequency of outpatient management, defined as discharge home directly from the ED, stratified by the PE Severity Index. The safety measure of outpatient care was 7-day PE-related hospitalization.

RESULTS

This study included 1039 patients, including 533 (51.3%) women, with a median (IQR) age of 65 (52-74) years. Nearly half (474 patients [45.6%]) were rated lower risk on the PE Severity Index. Overall, 278 patients (26.8%) were treated as outpatients, with only four 7-day PE-related hospitalizations (1.4%; 95% CI, 0.4%-3.6%). The practice gap in outpatient management created by the earlier trial persisted in the outpatient management for patients with lower risk: 109 of 236 patients (46.2%) at former intervention sites vs 81 of 238 patients (34.0%) at former control sites (difference, 12.2; [95% CI, 3.4-20.9] percentage points; P = .007), with wide interfacility variation (range, 7.1%-47.1%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, a champion-led, decision-support intervention to increase outpatient management for patients presenting to the ED with acute pulmonary embolism was associated with sustained higher rates of outpatient management 4 years later. The application of our findings to improving sustainability of practice change for other clinical conditions warrants further study.

Can right ventricular assessments improve triaging of low risk pulmonary embolism?

OBJECTIVES

Identifying right ventricle (RV) abnormalities is important to stratifying pulmonary embolism (PE) severity. Disposition decisions are influenced by concerns about early deterioration. Triaging strategies, like the Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), do not include RV assessments as predictors or early deterioration as outcome(s). We aimed to (1) determine if RV assessment variables add prognostic accuracy for 5-day clinical deterioration in patients classified low risk by sPESI, and (2) determine the prognostic importance of RV assessments compared to other variables and to each other.

METHODS

We identified low risk sPESI patients (sPESI = 0) from a prospective PE registry. From a large field of candidate variables, we developed, and compared prognostic accuracy of, full and reduced random forest models (with and without RV assessment variables, respectively) on a validation database. We reported variable importance plots from full random forest and provided odds ratios for statistical inference of importance from multivariable logistic regression. Outcomes were death, cardiac arrest, hypotension, dysrhythmia, or respiratory failure within 5 days of PE.

RESULTS

Of 1736 patients, 610 (35.1%) were low risk by sPESI and 72 (11.8%) experienced early deterioration. Of the 610, RV abnormality was present in 157 (25.7%) by CT, 121 (19.8%) by echocardiography, 132 (21.6%) by natriuretic peptide, and 107 (17.5%) by troponin. For deterioration, the receiver operating characteristics for full and reduced random forest prognostic models were 0.80 (0.77-0.82) and 0.71 (0.68-0.73), respectively. RV assessments were the top four in the variable importance plot for the random forest model. Echocardiography and CT significantly increased predicted probability of 5-day clinical deterioration by the multivariable logistic regression.

CONCLUSIONS

A PE triaging strategy with RV imaging assessments had superior prognostic performance at classifying low risk for 5-day clinical deterioration versus one without.

Development and validation of a prognostic tool: Pulmonary embolism short-term clinical outcomes risk estimation (PE-SCORE)

OBJECTIVE

Develop and validate a prognostic model for clinical deterioration or death within days of pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis using point-of-care criteria.

METHODS

We used prospective registry data from six emergency departments. The primary composite outcome was death or deterioration (respiratory failure, cardiac arrest, new dysrhythmia, sustained hypotension, and rescue reperfusion intervention) within 5 days. Candidate predictors included laboratory and imaging right ventricle (RV) assessments. The prognostic model was developed from 935 PE patients. Univariable analysis of 138 candidate variables was followed by penalized and standard logistic regression on 26 retained variables, and then tested with a validation database (N = 801).

RESULTS

Logistic regression yielded a nine-variable model, then simplified to a nine-point tool (PE-SCORE): one point each for abnormal RV by echocardiography, abnormal RV by computed tomography, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, dysrhythmia, suspected/confirmed systemic infection, syncope, medico-social admission reason, abnormal heart rate, and two points for creatinine greater than 2.0 mg/dL. In the development database, 22.4% had the primary outcome. Prognostic accuracy of logistic regression model versus PE-SCORE model: 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) vs. 0.78 (0.75, 0.82) using area under the curve (AUC) and 0.61 (0.57, 0.64) vs. 0.50 (0.39, 0.60) using precision-recall curve (AUCpr). In the validation database, 26.6% had the primary outcome. PE-SCORE had AUC 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) and AUCpr 0.63 (0.43, 0.81). As points increased, outcome proportions increased: a score of zero had 2% outcome, whereas scores of six and above had ≥ 69.6% outcomes. In the validation dataset, PE-SCORE zero had 8% outcome [no deaths], whereas all patients with PE-SCORE of six and above had the primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

PE-SCORE model identifies PE patients at low- and high-risk for deterioration and may help guide decisions about early outpatient management versus need for hospital-based monitoring.

Right ventricle assessment in patients with pulmonary embolism at low risk for death based on clinical models: an individual patient data meta-analysis

AIMS

Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) at low risk for short-term death are candidates for home treatment or short-hospital stay. We aimed at determining whether the assessment of right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) or elevated troponin improves identification of low-risk patients over clinical models alone.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Individual patient data meta-analysis of studies assessing the relationship between RVD or elevated troponin and short-term mortality in patients with acute PE at low risk for death based on clinical models (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index or Hestia). The primary study outcome was short-term death defined as death occurring in hospital or within 30 days. Individual data of 5010 low-risk patients from 18 studies were pooled. Short-term mortality was 0.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-1.3]. RVD at echocardiography, computed tomography or B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro BNP (NT-proBNP) was associated with increased risk for short-term death (1.5 vs. 0.3%; OR 4.81, 95% CI 1.98-11.68), death within 3 months (1.6 vs. 0.4%; OR 4.03, 95% CI 2.01-8.08), and PE-related death (1.1 vs. 0.04%; OR 22.9, 95% CI 2.89-181). Elevated troponin was associated with short-term death (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.06-7.26) and death within 3 months (OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.75-7.74).

CONCLUSION

RVD assessed by echocardiography, computed tomography, or elevated BNP/NT-proBNP levels and increased troponin are associated with short-term death in patients with acute PE at low risk based on clinical models. RVD assessment, mainly by BNP/NT-proBNP or echocardiography, should be considered to improve identification of low-risk patients that may be candidates for outpatient management or short hospital stay.

Hospitalization Is Less Common in Ambulatory Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosed Before Emergency Department Referral Than After Arrival

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) may undergo diagnostic pulmonary imaging as an outpatient before referral to the ED for definitive management. This population has not been well characterized.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included ambulatory adults with acute objectively confirmed PE across 21 EDs in an integrated health care system from January 1, 2013, through April 30, 2015. We excluded patients arriving by ambulance. We compared outpatients with diagnostic pulmonary imaging in the 12 hours prior to ED arrival (the clinic-based cohort) with those receiving imaging for PE only after ED arrival. We reported adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for hospitalization, adjusted for race, presyncope or syncope, proximal clot location, and PE Severity Index class.

RESULTS

Among 2,352 eligible ED patients with acute PE, 344 (14.6%) had a clinic-based diagnosis. This cohort had lower PE Severity Index classification and were less likely to be hospitalized than their counterparts with an ED-based diagnosis: 80.8% vs. 92.0% (p < 0.0001). The inverse association with hospitalization persisted after adjusting for the above patient characteristics with aOR of 0.36 (95% CI = 0.26 to 0.50).

CONCLUSION

In the study setting, ambulatory outpatients with acute PE are commonly diagnosed before ED arrival. A clinic-based diagnosis of PE identifies ED patients less likely to be hospitalized. Research is needed to identify which patients with a clinic-based PE diagnosis may not require transfer to the ED before home discharge.

Presyncope Is Associated with Intensive Care Unit Admission in Emergency Department Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

INTRODUCTION

Syncope is common among emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and indicates a higher acuity and worse prognosis than in patients without syncope. Whether presyncope carries the same prognostic implications has not been established. We compared incidence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in three groups of ED PE patients: those with presyncope; syncope; and neither.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all adults with acute, objectively confirmed PE in 21 community EDs from January 2013-April 2015. We combined electronic health record extraction with manual chart abstraction. We used chi-square test for univariate comparisons and performed multivariate analysis to evaluate associations between presyncope or syncope and ICU admission from the ED, reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Among 2996 PE patients, 82 (2.7%) had presyncope and 109 (3.6%) had syncope. ICU admission was similar between groups (presyncope 18.3% vs syncope 25.7%) and different than their non-syncope counterparts (either 22.5% vs neither 4.7%; p<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, both presyncope and syncope were independently associated with ICU admission, controlling for demographics, higher-risk PE Severity Index (PESI) class, ventilatory support, proximal clot location, and submassive and massive PE classification: presyncope, aOR 2.79 (95% CI, 1.40, 5.56); syncope, aOR 4.44 (95% CI 2.52, 7.80). These associations were only minimally affected when excluding massive PE from the model. There was no significant interaction between either syncope or presyncope and PESI, submassive or massive classification in predicting ICU admission.

CONCLUSION

Presyncope appears to carry similar strength of association with ICU admission as syncope in ED patients with acute PE. If this is confirmed, clinicians evaluating patients with acute PE may benefit from including presyncope in their calculus of risk assessment and site-of-care decision-making.

Comprehensive Outpatient Management of Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism: Can Primary Care Do This? A Narrative Review

INTRODUCTION

The evidence for outpatient management of hemodynamically stable, low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) is mounting. Guidance in identifying patients who are eligible for outpatient (ambulatory) care is available in the literature and society guidelines. Less is known about who can identify patients eligible for outpatient management and in what clinical practice settings.

OBJECTIVE

To answer the question, "Can primary care do this?" (provide comprehensive outpatient management of low-risk PE).

METHODS

We undertook a narrative review of the literature on the outpatient management of acute PE focusing on site of care. We searched the English-language literature in PubMed and Embase from January 1, 1950, through July 15, 2019.

RESULTS

We identified 26 eligible studies. We found no studies that evaluated comprehensive PE management in a primary care clinic or general practice setting. In 19 studies, the site-of-care decision making occurred in the Emergency Department (or after a short period of supplemental observation) and in 7 studies the decision occurred in a specialty clinic. We discuss the components of care involved in the diagnosis, outpatient eligibility assessment, treatment, and follow-up of ambulatory patients with acute PE.

DISCUSSION

We see no formal reason why a trained primary care physician could not provide comprehensive care for select patients with low-risk PE. Leading obstacles include lack of ready access to advanced pulmonary imaging and the time constraints of a busy outpatient clinic.

CONCLUSION

Until studies establish safe parameters of such a practice, the question "Can primary care do this?" must remain open.

Management of Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism

Pulmonary embolism remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. However, with improved recognition and diagnosis, the risk of death diminishes. The diagnosis depends on the clinician's suspicion. Pulmonary emboli are categorized into low, intermediate, or high risk based on the scoring scales and patients' hemodynamic stability versus instability. Imaging plus biomarkers help stratify patients according to risk. With the advent of the computed tomography multidetector scanners, the improved imaging has increased the detection of subsegmental and incidental pulmonary emboli. Treatment of low-risk as well as subsegmental and incidental pulmonary embolism is evolving.

Increasing Safe Outpatient Management of Emergency Department Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: A Controlled Pragmatic Trial

BACKGROUND

Many low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) are eligible for outpatient care but are hospitalized nonetheless. One impediment to home discharge is the difficulty of identifying which patients can safely forgo hospitalization.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of an integrated electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to facilitate risk stratification and decision making at the site of care for patients with acute PE.

DESIGN

Controlled pragmatic trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03601676).

SETTING

All 21 community EDs of an integrated health care delivery system (Kaiser Permanente Northern California).

PATIENTS

Adult ED patients with acute PE.

INTERVENTION

Ten intervention sites selected by convenience received a multidimensional technology and education intervention at month 9 of a 16-month study period (January 2014 to April 2015); the remaining 11 sites served as concurrent controls.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was discharge to home from either the ED or a short-term (<24-hour) outpatient observation unit based in the ED. Adverse outcomes included return visits for PE-related symptoms within 5 days and recurrent venous thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and all-cause mortality within 30 days. A difference-in-differences approach was used to compare pre-post changes at intervention versus control sites, with adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 881 eligible patients diagnosed with PE at intervention sites and 822 at control sites, adjusted home discharge increased at intervention sites (17.4% pre- to 28.0% postintervention) without a concurrent increase at control sites (15.1% pre- and 14.5% postintervention). The difference-in-differences comparison was 11.3 percentage points (95% CI, 3.0 to 19.5 percentage points; P = 0.007). No increases were seen in 5-day return visits related to PE or in 30-day major adverse outcomes associated with CDSS implementation.

LIMITATION

Lack of random allocation.

CONCLUSION

Implementation and structured promotion of a CDSS to aid physicians in site-of-care decision making for ED patients with acute PE safely increased outpatient management.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Garfield Memorial National Research Fund and The Permanente Medical Group Delivery Science and Physician Researcher Programs.

The creation and implementation of an outpatient pulmonary embolism treatment protocol

The ability to rapidly and accurately risk-stratify patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), and the availability of direct acting oral anticoagulants have reduced the need for intravenous anticoagulation for patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Emergency physicians are generally reluctant to discharge patients with VTE without defined and reliable follow up in place, and VTE patients treated with anticoagulants can be at risk for complications related to recurrent VTE and bleeding. In addition, screening for associated diseases (e.g. cancer, hypercoagulable states) may be indicated. Therefore, the outpatient treatment of low risk VTE requires coordinated effort and reliable follow up. By leveraging detailed outcome data and collaborative relationships, we have created a protocol for the safe outpatient treatment of patients with low risk DVT and PE. Our protocol is data driven and designed to address barriers to outpatient VTE management. We expect our protocol to result in improved patient satisfaction, more efficient emergency department (ED) throughput, and decreased cost. Applied nationally, the outpatient treatment of select patients with DVT and PE could have major public health and economic impact.

Prognostic Value of Right Ventricular Dysfunction Markers for Serious Adverse Events in Acute Normotensive Pulmonary Embolism

BACKGROUND

Right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in pulmonary embolism (PE) has been associated with increased morbidity. Tools for RVD identification are not well defined. The prognostic value of RVD markers to predict serious adverse events (SAE) during hospitalization is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

Prospectively compare the incidence of SAE in normotensive emergency department patients with PE based upon RVD by goal-directed echocardiography (GDE), cardiac biomarkers, and right-to-left ventricle ratio by computed tomography (CT). Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) was calculated. Deaths and readmissions within 30 days were recorded.

METHODS

Consecutive normotensive PE patients underwent GDE focused on RVD (RV enlargement, hypokinesis, or septal bowing), serum troponin, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and evaluation of the CT ventricle ratio. In-hospital SAE and complications within 30 days were recorded.

RESULTS

We enrolled 123 normotensive PE patients (median age 59 years, 49% female). Twenty-six of 123 (26%) patients had one or more SAE. RVD was detected in 26% by GDE, in 39% by biomarkers, and in 38% with CT. In-hospital SAE included one death, six respiratory interventions, six dysrhythmias, three major bleeding episodes, and 21 hypotension episodes. Forty-one percent of patients RVD positive by GDE had SAE, compared to the 18% RVD negative by GDE. Odds ratios for GDE, CT, BNP, troponin, and sPESI for SAE were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-8.5), 2.0 (95% CI 0.8-5.1), 3.3 (95% CI 1.3-8.6), 4.2 (95% CI 1.4-13.5), and 2.9 (95% CI 1.1-8.3), respectively. Five patients had non-PE-related deaths within 30 days.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of SAE within days of PE was significant in our cohort. Those with RVD had an increased risk of nonmortality SAE.

Risk stratifying emergency department patients with acute pulmonary embolism: Does the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index perform as well as the original?

INTRODUCTION

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated prognostic score to estimate the 30-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). A simplified version (sPESI) was derived but has not been as well studied in the U.S. We sought to validate both indices in a community hospital setting in the U.S. and compare their performance in predicting 30-day all-cause mortality and classification of cases into low-risk and higher-risk categories.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included adults with acute objectively confirmed PE from 1/2013 to 4/2015 across 21 community EDs. We evaluated the misclassification rate of the sPESI compared with the PESI. We assessed accuracy of both indices with regard to 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Among 3006 cases of acute PE, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 4.4%. The sPESI performed as well as the PESI in identifying low-risk patients: both had similar sensitivities, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios. The sPESI, however, classified a smaller proportion of patients as low risk than the PESI (27.5% vs. 41.0%), but with similar low-risk mortality rates (<1%). Compared with the PESI, the sPESI overclassified 443 low-risk patients (14.7%) as higher risk, yet their 30-day mortality was 0.7%. The sPESI underclassified 100 higher-risk patients (3.3%) as low risk who also had a low mortality rate (1.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Both indices identified patients with PE who were at low risk for 30-day mortality. The sPESI, however, misclassified a significant number of low-mortality patients as higher risk, which could lead to unnecessary hospitalizations.

Comparison of Four Bleeding Risk Scores to Identify Rivaroxaban-treated Patients With Venous Thromboembolism at Low Risk for Major Bleeding

OBJECTIVES

Outpatient treatment of acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) requires the selection of patients with a low risk of bleeding during the first few weeks of anticoagulation. The accuracy of four systems, originally derived for predicting bleeding in VTE treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), was assessed in VTE patients treated with rivaroxaban.

METHODS

All patients treated with rivaroxaban in the multinational EINSTEIN deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) trials were included. Major bleeding was defined as ≥2 g/dL drop in hemoglobin or ≥2-unit blood transfusion, bleeding in critical area, or bleeding contributing to death. The authors examined the incidence of major bleeding in patients with low-risk assignment by the systems of Ruiz-Gimenez et al. (score = 0 to 1), Beyth et al. (score = 0), Kuijer et al. (score = 0), and Landefeld and Goldman. (score = 0). For clinical relevance, the definition of low risk for all scores except Kuijer includes all patients < 65 years with no prior bleeding history and no comorbid conditions (current cancer, renal insufficiency, diabetes mellitus, anemia, prior stroke, or myocardial infarction).

RESULTS

A total of 4,130 patients (1,731 with DVT only, 2,399 with PE with or without DVT) were treated with rivaroxaban for a mean (±SD) duration of 207.6 (±95.9) days. Major bleeding occurred in 1.0% (40 of 4,130; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7% to 1.3%) overall. Rates of major bleeding for low-risk patients during the entire treatment period were similar: Ruiz-Gimenez et al., 12 of 2,622 (0.5%; 95% CI = 0.2% to 0.8%); Beyth et al., nine of 2,249 (0.4%; 95% CI = 0.2% to 0.8%); Kuijer et al., four of 1,186 (0.3%; 95% CI = 0.1% to 0.9%); and Landefeld and Goldman, 11 of 2,407 (0.5%; 95% CI = 0.2% to 0.8%). At 30 days, major bleed rates for low-risk patients were as follows: Ruiz-Gimenez et al., five of 2,622 (0.2%; 95% CI = 0.1% to 0.4%); Beyth et al., five of 2,249 (0.2%; 95% CI = 0.1% to 0.5%); Kuijer et al., three of 1,186 (0.3%; 95% CI = 0.1% to 0.7%); and Landefeld and Goldman, seven of 2,407 (0.3%; 95% CI = 0.1% to 0.6%). No low-risk patient had a fatal bleed.

CONCLUSIONS

Four scoring systems that use criteria obtained in routine clinical practice, derived to predict low bleeding risk with VKA treatment for VTE, identified patients with less than a 1% risk of major bleeding during full-course treatment with rivaroxaban.

Findings From 12-lead Electrocardiography That Predict Circulatory Shock From Pulmonary Embolism: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Treatment guidelines for acute pulmonary embolism (PE) recommend risk stratifying patients to assess PE severity, as those at higher risk should be considered for therapy in addition to standard anticoagulation to prevent right ventricular (RV) failure, which can cause hemodynamic collapse. The hypothesis was that 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) can aid in this determination. The objective of this study was to measure the prognostic value of specific ECG findings (the Daniel score, which includes heart rate > 100 beats/min, presence of the S1Q3T3 pattern, incomplete and complete right bundle branch block [RBBB], and T-wave inversion in leads V1-V4, plus ST elevation in lead aVR and atrial fibrillation suggestive of RV strain from acute pulmonary hypertension), in patients with acute PE.

METHODS

Studies were identified by a structured search of MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, Google Scholar, Scopus, and bibliographies in October 2014. Case reports, non-English papers, and those that lacked either patient outcomes or ECG findings were excluded. Papers with evidence of a predefined reference standard for PE and the results of 12-lead ECG, stratified by outcome (hemodynamic collapse, defined as circulatory shock requiring vasopressors or mechanical ventilation, or in hospital or death within 30 days) were included. Papers were assessed for selection and publication bias. The authors also assessed heterogeneity (I(2) ) and calculated the odds ratios (OR) for each ECG sign from the random effects model if I(2) > 24% and fixed effects if I(2) < 25%. Funnel plots were used to examine for publication bias.

RESULTS

Forty-five full-length studies of 8,209 patients were analyzed. The most frequent ECG signs found in patients with acute PE were tachycardia (38%), T-wave inversion in lead V1 (38%), and ST elevation in lead aVR (36%). Ten studies with 3,007 patients were included for full analysis. Six ECG findings (heart rate > 100 beats/min, S1Q3T3, complete RBBB, inverted T waves in V1-V4, ST elevation in aVR, and atrial fibrillation) had likelihood and ORs with lower-limit 95% confidence intervals above unity, suggesting them to be significant predictors of hemodynamic collapse and 30-day mortality. OR data showed no evidence of publication bias, but the proportions of patients with hemodynamic collapse or death and S1Q3T3 and RBBB tended to be higher in smaller studies. Patients who were outcome-negative had a significantly lower mean ± SD Daniel score (2.6 ± 1.5) than patients with hemodynamic collapse (5.9 ± 3.9; p = 0.039, ANOVA with Dunnett's post hoc), but not patients with all-cause 30-day mortality (4.9 ± 3.3; p = 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review and meta-analysis revealed 10 studies, including 3,007 patients with acute PE, that demonstrate that six findings of RV strain on 12-lead ECG (heart rate > 100 beats/min, S1Q3T3, complete RBBB, inverted T waves in V1-V4, ST elevation in aVR, and atrial fibrillation) are associated with increased risk of circulatory shock and death.

The Accuracy of an Electronic Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index Auto-Populated from the Electronic Health Record: Setting the stage for computerized clinical decision support

BACKGROUND

The Pulmonary Embolism (PE) Severity Index identifies emergency department (ED) patients with acute PE that can be safely managed without hospitalization. However, the Index comprises 11 weighted variables, complexity that can impede its integration into contextual workflow.

OBJECTIVE

We designed a computerized version of the PE Severity Index (e-Index) to automatically extract the required variables from discrete fields in the electronic health record (EHR). We tested the e-Index on the study population to determine its accuracy compared with a gold standard generated by physician abstraction of the EHR on manual chart review.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included adults with objectively-confirmed acute PE in four community EDs from 2010-2012. Outcomes included performance characteristics of the e-Index for individual values, the number of cases requiring physician editing, and the accuracy of the e-Index risk category (low vs. higher).

RESULTS

For the 593 eligible patients, there were 6,523 values automatically extracted. Fifty one of these needed physician editing, yielding an accuracy at the value-level of 99.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 99.0%-99.4%). Sensitivity was 96.9% (95% CI, 96.0%-97.9%) and specificity was 99.8% (95% CI, 99.7%-99.9%). The 51 corrected values were distributed among 47 cases: 43 cases required the correction of one variable and four cases required the correction of two. At the risk-category level, the e-Index had an accuracy of 96.8% (95% CI, 95.0%-98.0%), under-classifying 16 higher-risk cases (2.7%) and over-classifying 3 low-risk cases (0.5%).

CONCLUSION

Our automated extraction of variables from the EHR for the e-Index demonstrates substantial accuracy, requiring a minimum of physician editing. This should increase user acceptability and implementation success of a computerized clinical decision support system built around the e-Index, and may serve as a model to automate other complex risk stratification instruments.