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Beil M, Moreno R, Fronczek J, Kogan Y, Moreno RPJ, Flaatten H, Guidet B, de Lange D, Leaver S, Nachshon A, van Heerden PV, Joskowicz L, Sviri S, Jung C, Szczeklik W. Prognosticating the outcome of intensive care in older patients-a narrative review. Ann Intensive Care 2024; 14:97. [PMID: 38907141 PMCID: PMC11192712 DOI: 10.1186/s13613-024-01330-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Prognosis determines major decisions regarding treatment for critically ill patients. Statistical models have been developed to predict the probability of survival and other outcomes of intensive care. Although they were trained on the characteristics of large patient cohorts, they often do not represent very old patients (age ≥ 80 years) appropriately. Moreover, the heterogeneity within this particular group impairs the utility of statistical predictions for informing decision-making in very old individuals. In addition to these methodological problems, the diversity of cultural attitudes, available resources as well as variations of legal and professional norms limit the generalisability of prediction models, especially in patients with complex multi-morbidity and pre-existing functional impairments. Thus, current approaches to prognosticating outcomes in very old patients are imperfect and can generate substantial uncertainty about optimal trajectories of critical care in the individual. This article presents the state of the art and new approaches to predicting outcomes of intensive care for these patients. Special emphasis has been given to the integration of predictions into the decision-making for individual patients. This requires quantification of prognostic uncertainty and a careful alignment of decisions with the preferences of patients, who might prioritise functional outcomes over survival. Since the performance of outcome predictions for the individual patient may improve over time, time-limited trials in intensive care may be an appropriate way to increase the confidence in decisions about life-sustaining treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Beil
- Department of Medical Intensive Care, Hadassah Medical Center and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Rui Moreno
- Unidade Local de Saúde São José, Hospital de São José, Lisbon, Portugal
- Centro Clínico Académico de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal
| | - Jakub Fronczek
- Center for Intensive Care and Perioperative Medicine, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
| | - Yuri Kogan
- Institute for Medical Biomathematics, Bene Ataroth, Israel
| | | | - Hans Flaatten
- Department of Research and Development, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
| | - Bertrand Guidet
- INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie Et de Santé Publique, AP-HP, Hôpital Saint Antoine, Sorbonne Université, Service MIR, Paris, France
| | - Dylan de Lange
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, University Medical Center, University Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Susannah Leaver
- General Intensive Care, St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Akiva Nachshon
- General Intensive Care Unit, Department of Anaesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University and, Hadassah University Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Peter Vernon van Heerden
- General Intensive Care Unit, Department of Anaesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University and, Hadassah University Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Leo Joskowicz
- School of Computer Science and Engineering and Center for Computational Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Sigal Sviri
- Department of Medical Intensive Care, Hadassah Medical Center and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Christian Jung
- Department of Cardiology, Pulmonology and Vascular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Heinrich-Heine-University, University Duesseldorf, Moorenstraße 5, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.
| | - Wojciech Szczeklik
- Center for Intensive Care and Perioperative Medicine, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
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Kruser JM, Nadig NR, Viglianti EM, Clapp JT, Secunda KE, Halpern SD. Time-Limited Trials for Patients With Critical Illness: A Review of the Literature. Chest 2024; 165:881-891. [PMID: 38101511 PMCID: PMC11243441 DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2023.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 11/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
TOPIC IMPORTANCE Since the 1990s, time-limited trials have been described as an approach to navigate uncertain benefits and limits of life-sustaining therapies in patients with critical illness. In this review, we aim to synthesize the evidence on time-limited trials in critical care, establish what is known, and highlight important knowledge gaps. REVIEW FINDINGS We identified 18 empirical studies and 15 ethical analyses about time-limited trials in patients with critical illness. Observational studies suggest time-limited trials are part of current practice in ICUs in the United States, but their use varies according to unit and physician factors. Some ICU physicians are familiar with, endorse, and have participated in time-limited trials, and some older adults appear to favor time-limited trial strategies over indefinite life-sustaining therapy or care immediately focused on comfort. When time-limited trials are used, they are often implemented incompletely and challenged by systematic barriers (eg, continually rotating ICU staff). Predictive modeling studies support prevailing clinical wisdom that prognostic uncertainty decreases over time in the ICU for some patients. One study prospectively comparing usual ICU care with an intervention designed to support time-limited trials yielded promising preliminary results. Ethical analyses describe time-limited trials as a pragmatic approach within the longstanding discussion about withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining therapies. SUMMARY Time-limited trials are endorsed by physicians, align with the priorities of some older adults, and are part of current practice. Substantial efforts are needed to test their impact on patient-centered outcomes, improve their implementation, and maximize their potential benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacqueline M Kruser
- Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI.
| | - Nandita R Nadig
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL
| | - Elizabeth M Viglianti
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
| | - Justin T Clapp
- Department of Anesthesiology & Critical Care, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Katharine E Secunda
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Scott D Halpern
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA; Palliative and Advanced Illness Research (PAIR) Center, Philadelphia, PA
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