Forecasting Environmental Hazards and the Application of Risk Maps to Predator Attacks on Livestock

Landscape predictors influencing livestock depredation by leopards in and around Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Livestock depredation by leopards is a pervasive issue across many Asian and African range countries, particularly in and around protected areas. Developing effective conflict mitigation strategies requires understanding the landscape features influencing livestock depredation. In this study, we investigated predictors associated with livestock depredation by leopards using 274 cases of leopard attacks on livestock that occurred between 2017 and 2020 in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. We also examined how livestock predation by leopards varied depending on the species, season, and time. A generalized linear model with binary logistic regression was used to test the statistical significance of variables associated with the presence and absence of conflict sites. The results revealed that the area of forest, agricultural land, length of rivers, slope, proximity to settlements and protected areas, and elevation significantly predicted the probability of leopard attacks on livestock. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of leopard predation on livestock with decreasing slopes and rising elevations. The areas near human settlements and the protected areas faced a higher risk of leopard predation. The incidence of leopard predation on livestock varied significantly depending on the livestock species, season, and time. Goats were the most highly predated livestock, followed by sheep, cow/ox, and buffalo. A total of 289.11 km2 (or around 5% of the research area) was deemed to be at high risk for leopard predation on livestock. This study's comprehensive understanding of human-leopard conflicts provides valuable insights for planning and implementing measures to reduce damage caused by leopard populations throughout their range.

Patterns of livestock loss associated with a recolonizing wolf population in Germany

Predation on livestock presents a daunting challenge for human–carnivore coexistence in agricultural landscapes. In Germany, the recolonization of wolves is ongoing and its consequences are insufficiently understood. Knowledge about which livestock species are susceptible to wolf predation, which farm types are predisposed to attacks by wolves, and when predation on livestock occurs is valuable for mitigating stakeholder conflicts. To this end, we analyzed 14 years of monitoring data and assessed the livestock prey spectrum, identified correlates between predation on livestock, farm type and livestock category, and described temporal patterns of livestock loss caused by a recolonizing wolf population in the state of Brandenburg (Germany). Among a total of 1387 recorded cases, 42% were unequivocally attributed to wolves (SCALP criteria C1 and C2) and 12% of cases were not caused by wolves. The number of head of livestock killed during a single wolf attack was mediated by farm type and livestock species; losses per event were greater in full-time farms vs. other farm types and greater in sheep, farmed deer and other livestock species, compared to cattle. While sheep were the most commonly killed livestock species, the increase in wolf territories over the investigation period was associated with a widening of the domestic prey species spectrum. Count regression models provided evidence for the increasing frequency of predation events over the 14-year period, along with an exponential increase in wolf territories. Predation on livestock occurred throughout the year, yet seasonality of events was evident and differed across livestock categories. Predation on sheep peaked in the fall, coinciding with the post-weaning period of wolf offspring. Predation on cattle peaked in the spring, coinciding with the cattle calving period. These results call for renewed investment in the implementation of prevention methods for all susceptible domestic species, particularly during times of elevated predation risk.

A mixed methodology for evaluating use of evidence in conservation planning

Conservation practitioners widely recognize the importance of making decisions based on the best available evidence. However, the effectiveness of evidence use in conservation planning is rarely assessed, which limits opportunities to improve evidence-based practice. We devised a mixed methodology for empirically evaluating use of evidence that applies social science tools to systematically appraise what kinds of evidence are used in conservation planning, to what effect, and under what limitations. We applied our approach in a case study of the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC), a leading land conservation organization. We conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses of 65 NCC planning documents (n = 13 in-depth) to identify patterns in evidence use, and surveyed 35 conservation planners to examine experiences of and barriers to using evidence. Although claims in plans contained a wide range of evidence types, 26% of claims were not referenced or associated with an identifiable source. Lack of evidence use was particularly apparent in claims associated with direct threats, particularly those identified as low (71% coded as insufficient or lacking evidence) or medium (45%) threats. Survey participants described relying heavily on practitioner experience and highlighted capacity limitations and disciplinary gaps in expertise among planning teams as barriers to using evidence effectively. We found that although time-intensive, this approach yielded actionable recommendations for improving evidence use in NCC conservation plans. Similar mixed-method assessments may streamline the process by including interviews and refining the document analysis frames to target issues or sections of concern. We suggest our method provides an accessible and robust point of departure for conservation practitioners to evaluate whether the use of conservation planning reflects in-house standards and more broadly recognized best practices.

What shapes the mammal species poaching in protected areas: biophysical or anthropogenic factors? A case study in Pendjari Biosphere Reserve

Understanding what shapes the mammal species poaching in protected areas is critical to developing targeted management strategies for reducing poaching. We collected the data for poaching incidents on the GPS coordinates from 2011 to 2017 to map poaching incidents in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve. Poaching incidents were then related to environmental and anthropogenic variables using regression analyses. The study shows that poaching is more concentrated along the main river in the Pendjari National Park. Only nearest distance to the main river significantly predicted the location of high poaching incidents. These results could be used as the starting point by the park managers when planning the anti-poaching activities.

Large-Scale Sheep Losses to Wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany Are Related to the Expansion of the Wolf Population but Not to Increasing Wolf Numbers

Recovery of predator populations triggers conflicts due to livestock depredation losses, particularly in Germany where the wolf (Canis lupus) population grows exponentially and livestock (especially sheep) losses raise public concerns and motivate the authorities to control wolf numbers. Yet, the effects of wolf numbers and alternative factors, such as abundance of prey and livestock, on livestock losses in this country are not investigated. In this study, we collected and analyzed data on the numbers of reproductive units of wolves (packs and pairs together) as a surrogate of adult wolf numbers, sheep killed by wolves, living sheep, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in every German state and year from 2002 to 2019. We applied a negative binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to estimate the effects of these predictors on the numbers of sheep killed by wolves. We also examined the relationships between the percentages of killed/living sheep and the numbers of living sheep. Ranking of 63 models based on the Akaike information criterion revealed that sheep losses were determined by state, year, and number of living sheep, not by wolf numbers, at high precision and accuracy. The number of sheep killed by wolves increased consistently by 41% per year and by 30% for every additional 10,000 sheep, mainly in the north where most wolf territories are concentrated. This means that sheep are protected insufficiently and/or ineffectively. The percentages of killed/living sheep consistently increased by 0.02–0.05% per state and year, with the maximum percentage of 0.7%, on a backdrop of decreasing numbers of living sheep. In conclusion, we demonstrate that sheep losses in Germany have been driven by the expansion of the wolf population, not by wolf numbers, and by the number of sheep available. We suggest that Germany’s wolf conservation policy should focus on alternative non-lethal interventions, enforcement and standardization of intervention monitoring, and promotion of wolf tolerance rather than on lethal control of wolf population size.

Factors predicting habitat use by leopards in human-altered landscapes

Transformed landscapes caused by human activity leave remnant patches of natural habitat for wildlife. The persistence of species in the face of such transformation depends on individuals’ ability to adapt to novel habitat, and to secure resources and reproductive opportunities despite habitat alterations. The leopard, Panthera pardus, is the last free-roaming top carnivore in South Africa whose high trophic status and wide-ranging movements make them an effective focal species in conservation planning. Using location data from leopards, we investigated key correlates of habitat selection in human-altered landscapes at two spatial scales. We compared sex-related differences and predicted how conspecific home range locations influenced habitat selection. Leopards avoided human-altered landscapes more strongly at the large spatial scale, where both sexes selected core areas near formally protected areas. Conspecific home range locations had a strong positive effect at both spatial scales for males, while for females, conspecifics explained fine-scale habitat selection by selecting areas near neighboring females. Spatial scale, sex-related differences, and conspecific location play roles in habitat selection for solitary felids and have implications for conservation planning and management. Excluding these factors may result in inappropriate species management policies.

A Framework for Estimating Human-Wildlife Conflict Probabilities Conditional on Species Occupancy

Managing human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs) is an important conservation objective for the many terrestrial landscapes dominated by humans. Forecasting where future conflicts are likely to occur and assessing risks to lives and livelihoods posed by wildlife are central to informing HWC management strategies. Existing assessments of the spatial occurrence patterns of HWC are based on either understanding spatial patterns of past conflicts or patterns of species distribution. In the former case, the absence of conflicts at a site cannot be attributed to the absence of the species. In the latter case, the presence of a species may not be an accurate measure of the probability of conflict occurrence. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that integrates conflict reporting data and species distribution data, thus allowing the estimation of the probability that conflicts with a species are reported from a site, conditional on the species being present. In doing so, our model corrects for both false-positive and false-negative conflict reporting errors. We provide study design recommendations using simulations that explore the performance of the model under a range of conflict reporting probabilities. We applied the model to data on wild boar (Sus scrofa) space use and conflicts collected from the Central Terai Landscape (CTL), an important tiger conservation landscape in India. We found that tolerance for wildlife was a predictor of the probability with which farmers report conflict with wild boars from sites not used by the species. We also discuss useful extensions of the model when conflict data are verified for potential false-positive errors and when landscapes are monitored over multiple seasons.

J. PG, Soler L. Analysis of conflicts with wild carnivores in the Humid Chaco, Argentina

Interactions between humans and carnivores tend to be conflictual, especially due to predation on domestic animals. As certain landscape characteristics predispose the occurrence of carnivore attacks, spatial modelling of predation events can be particularly useful when developing management plans. In this study we determined the incidence of predation on the mortality of domestic animals by interviewing local inhabitants. In addition, we identified the spatial variables that explain the distribution of the conflicts and we created a two–scale model based on the Maxent algorithm. The results showed that Puma concolor (41.2 %) and the foxes Lycalopex gymnocercus and Cerdocyon thous (33.3 %) were the most conflictive species. Predation accounted for only 5.6 % of the causes of domestic animal mortality. The distribution models showed that the most probable variables for predicting conflicts were the distance from the roads, livestock density and the proportion of anthropized areas. High–risk areas represented 28 % of the study area and were distributed in broad patches around the protected areas and in the eastern sector of the area.

Wolves make roadways safer, generating large economic returns to predator conservation

Recent studies uncover cascading ecological effects resulting from removing and reintroducing predators into a landscape, but little is known about effects on human lives and property. We quantify the effects of restoring wolf populations by evaluating their influence on deer-vehicle collisions (DVCs) in Wisconsin. We show that, for the average county, wolf entry reduced DVCs by 24%, yielding an economic benefit that is 63 times greater than the costs of verified wolf predation on livestock. Most of the reduction is due to a behavioral response of deer to wolves rather than through a deer population decline from wolf predation. This finding supports ecological research emphasizing the role of predators in creating a "landscape of fear." It suggests wolves control economic damages from overabundant deer in ways that human deer hunters cannot.

Transparency About Values and Assertions of Fact in Natural Resource Management

Worldwide, unsustainable use of nature threatens many ecosystems and the services they provide for a broad diversity of life, including humans. Yet, governments commonly claim that the best available science supports their policies governing extraction of natural resources. We confront this apparent paradox by assessing the complexity of the intersections among value judgments, fact claims, and scientifically verified facts. Science can only describe how nature works and predict the likely outcomes of our actions, whereas values influence which actions or objectives society ought to pursue. In the context of natural resource management, particularly of fisheries and wildlife, governments typically set population targets or use quotas. Although these are fundamentally value judgments about how much of a resource a group of people can extract, quotas are often justified as numerical guidance derived from abstracted, mathematical, or theoretical models of extraction. We confront such justifications by examining failures in transparency about value judgments, which may accompany unsupported assertions articulated as factual claims. We illustrate this with two examples. Our first case concerns protection and human use of habitats harboring the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), revealing how biologists and policy scholars have argued for divergent roles of scientists within policy debates, and how debates between scientists engaged in policy-relevant research reveal undisclosed value judgments about communication of science beyond its role as a source of description (observation, measurement, analysis, and inference). Our second case concerns protection and use of endangered gray wolves (Canis lupus) and shows how undisclosed value judgments distorted the science behind a government policy. Finally, we draw from the literature of multiple disciplines and wildlife systems to recommend several improvements to the standards of transparency in applied research in natural resource management. These recommendations will help to prevent value-based distortions of science that can result in unsustainable uses and eventual extinctions of populations. We describe methods for communicating about values that avoid commingling factual claims and discuss approaches to communicating science that do not perpetuate the misconception that science alone can dictate policy without consideration of values. Our remedies can improve transparency in both expert and public debate about preserving and using natural resources, and thereby help prevent non-human population declines worldwide.

Communication hubs of an asocial cat are the source of a human-carnivore conflict and key to its solution

The cheetah is a prominent example for human–carnivore conflicts and mitigation challenges. Its global population suffered a substantial decline throughout its range. Here, we present an in-depth and new understanding of the socio-spatial organization of the cheetah. We show that cheetahs maintain a network of communication hubs distributed in a regular pattern across the landscape, not contiguous with each other and separated by a surrounding matrix. Cheetahs spend a substantial amount of their time in these hubs, resulting in high local cheetah activity, which represents a high local predation risk for livestock. Implementing this knowledge, farmers were able to reduce livestock losses by 86%.

Human–wildlife conflicts occur worldwide. Although many nonlethal mitigation solutions are available, they rarely use the behavioral ecology of the conflict species to derive effective and long-lasting solutions. Here, we use a long-term study with 106 GPS-collared free-ranging cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) to demonstrate how new insights into the socio-spatial organization of this species provide the key for such a solution. GPS-collared territory holders marked and defended communication hubs (CHs) in the core area of their territories. The CHs/territories were distributed in a regular pattern across the landscape such that they were not contiguous with each other but separated by a surrounding matrix. They were kept in this way by successive territory holders, thus maintaining this overdispersed distribution. The CHs were also visited by nonterritorial cheetah males and females for information exchange, thus forming hotspots of cheetah activity and presence. We hypothesized that the CHs pose an increased predation risk to young calves for cattle farmers in Namibia. In an experimental approach, farmers shifted cattle herds away from the CHs during the calving season. This drastically reduced their calf losses by cheetahs because cheetahs did not follow the herds but instead preyed on naturally occurring local wildlife prey in the CHs. This implies that in the cheetah system, there are “problem areas,” the CHs, rather than “problem individuals.” The incorporation of the behavioral ecology of conflict species opens promising areas to search for solutions in other conflict species with nonhomogenous space use.

Landscape predictors of human-leopard conflicts within multi-use areas of the Himalayan region

Conflict with humans is a significant source of mortality for large carnivores globally. With rapid loss of forest cover and anthropogenic impacts on their habitats, large carnivores are forced to occupy multi-use landscapes outside protected areas. We investigated 857 attacks on livestock in eastern Himalaya and 375 attacks in western Himalaya by leopards between 2015 and 2018. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the landscape features which increased the probability of livestock depredation by leopards. The risk of a leopard killing livestock increased within a heterogeneous landscape matrix comprising of both closed and open habitats (very dense forests, moderate dense forests, open forests, scrubland and non-forests). We used the results to map potential human-leopard conflict hotspots across parts of the Indian Himalayan region. Our spatial risk maps indicate pockets in the eastern, central and western part of eastern Himalaya and the central, northern part of western Himalaya as hotspots of human-leopard conflicts. Most of the attacks occurred when livestock were grazing freely within multi-use areas without supervision of a herder. Our results suggest that awareness about high risk areas, supervised grazing, and removing vegetation cover around human settlements should be initiated to reduce predation by leopards.

A landscape of overlapping risks for wolf-human conflict in Wisconsin, USA

Managing risk requires an adequate understanding of risk-factors that influence the likelihood of a particular event occurring in time and space. Risk maps can be valuable tools for natural resource managers, allowing them to better understand spatial characteristics of risk. Risk maps can also support risk-avoidance efforts by identifying which areas are relatively riskier than others. However, risks, such as human-carnivore conflict, can be diverse, multi-faceted, and overlapping in space. Yet, efforts to describe risk typically focus on only one aspect of risk. We examined wolf complaints investigated in Wisconsin, USA for the period of 1999-2011. We described the spatial patterns of four types of wolf-human conflict: livestock depredation, depredation on hunting hounds, depredation on non-hound dogs, and human health and safety concerns (HHSC). Using predictive landscape models and discriminant functions analysis, we visualized the landscape of risk as a continuous surface of overlapping risks. Each type of conflict had its own unique landscape signature; however, the probability of any type of conflict increased closer to the center of wolf pack territories and with increased forest cover. Hunting hound depredations tended to occur in areas considered to be highly suitable wolf habitat, while livestock depredations occurred more regularly in marginal wolf habitat. HHSC and non-hound dog depredations were less predictable spatially but tended to occur in areas with low housing density adjacent to large wildland areas. Similar to other research evaluating the risk of human-carnivore conflict, our data suggests that human-carnivore conflict is most likely to occur where humans or human property and large carnivores co-occur. However, identifying areas of co-occurrence is only marginally valuable from a conservation standpoint and could be described using spatially-explicit human and carnivore data without complex analytical approaches. These results challenge our traditional understanding of risk and the standard approach used in describing risk. We suggest that a more comprehensive understanding of the risk of human-carnivore conflict can be achieved by examining the spatial and non-spatial factors influencing risk within areas of co-occurrence and by describing the landscape of risk as a continuous surface of multiple overlapping risks.

Patterns of livestock depredation and cost-effectiveness of fortified livestock enclosures in northern Tanzania

Human-carnivore conflicts and retaliatory killings contribute to carnivore populations' declines around the world. Strategies to mitigate conflicts have been developed, but their efficacy is rarely assessed in a randomized case-control design. Further, the economic costs prevent the adoption and wide use of conflict mitigation strategies by pastoralists in rural Africa. We examined carnivore (African lion [Panthera leo], leopard [Panthera pardus], spotted hyena [Crocuta crocuta], jackal [Canis mesomelas], and cheetah [Acinonyx jubatus]) raids on fortified (n = 45, total 631 monthly visits) and unfortified (traditional, n = 45, total 521 monthly visits) livestock enclosures ("bomas") in northern Tanzania. The study aimed to (a) assess the extent of retaliatory killings of major carnivore species due to livestock depredation, (b) describe the spatiotemporal characteristics of carnivore raids on livestock enclosures, (c) analyze whether spatial covariates influenced livestock depredation risk in livestock enclosures, and (d) examine the cost-effectiveness of livestock enclosure fortification. Results suggest that (a) majority of boma raids by carnivores were caused by spotted hyenas (nearly 90% of all raids), but retaliatory killings mainly targeted lions, (b) carnivore raid attempts were rare at individual households (0.081 raid attempts/month in fortified enclosures and 0.102 raid attempts/month in unfortified enclosures), and (c) spotted hyena raid attempts increased in the wet season compared with the dry season, and owners of fortified bomas reported less hyena raid attempts than owners of unfortified bomas. Landscape and habitat variables tested, did not strongly drive the spatial patterns of spotted hyena raids in livestock bomas. Carnivore raids varied randomly both spatially (village to village) and temporally (year to year). The cost-benefit analysis suggest that investing in boma fortification yielded positive net present values after two to three years. Thus, enclosure fortification is a cost-effective strategy to promote coexistence of carnivores and humans.

Addressing human-tiger conflict using socio-ecological information on tolerance and risk

Tigers are critically endangered due to deforestation and persecution. Yet in places, Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) continue to coexist with people, offering insights for managing wildlife elsewhere. Here, we couple spatial models of encounter risk with information on tolerance from 2386 Sumatrans to reveal drivers of human-tiger conflict. Risk of encountering tigers was greater around populated villages that neighboured forest or rivers connecting tiger habitat; geographic profiles refined these predictions to three core areas. People's tolerance for tigers was related to underlying attitudes, emotions, norms and spiritual beliefs. Combining this information into socio-ecological models yielded predictions of tolerance that were 32 times better than models based on social predictors alone. Pre-emptive intervention based on these socio-ecological predictions could have averted up to 51% of attacks on livestock and people, saving 15 tigers. Our work provides further evidence of the benefits of interdisciplinary research on conservation conflicts.

Killing wolves to prevent predation on livestock may protect one farm but harm neighbors

Large carnivores, such as gray wolves, Canis lupus, are difficult to protect in mixed-use landscapes because some people perceive them as dangerous and because they sometimes threaten human property and safety. Governments may respond by killing carnivores in an effort to prevent repeated conflicts or threats, although the functional effectiveness of lethal methods has long been questioned. We evaluated two methods of government intervention following independent events of verified wolf predation on domestic animals (depredation) in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA between 1998–2014, at three spatial scales. We evaluated two intervention methods using log-rank tests and conditional Cox recurrent event, gap time models based on retrospective analyses of the following quasi-experimental treatments: (1) selective killing of wolves by trapping near sites of verified depredation, and (2) advice to owners and haphazard use of non-lethal methods without wolf-killing. The government did not randomly assign treatments and used a pseudo-control (no removal of wolves was not a true control), but the federal permission to intervene lethally was granted and rescinded independent of events on the ground. Hazard ratios suggest lethal intervention was associated with an insignificant 27% lower risk of recurrence of events at trapping sites, but offset by an insignificant 22% increase in risk of recurrence at sites up to 5.42 km distant in the same year, compared to the non-lethal treatment. Our results do not support the hypothesis that Michigan’s use of lethal intervention after wolf depredations was effective for reducing the future risk of recurrence in the vicinities of trapping sites. Examining only the sites of intervention is incomplete because neighbors near trapping sites may suffer the recurrence of depredations. We propose two new hypotheses for perceived effectiveness of lethal methods: (a) killing predators may be perceived as effective because of the benefits to a small minority of farmers, and (b) if neighbors experience side-effects of lethal intervention such as displaced depredations, they may perceive the problem growing and then demand more lethal intervention rather than detecting problems spreading from the first trapping site. Ethical wildlife management guided by the “best scientific and commercial data available” would suggest suspending the standard method of trapping wolves in favor of non-lethal methods (livestock guarding dogs or fladry) that have been proven effective in preventing livestock losses in Michigan and elsewhere.

Habitat suitability and movement corridors of grey wolf (Canis lupus) in Northern Pakistan

Habitat suitability models are useful to understand species distribution and to guide management and conservation strategies. The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been extirpated from most of its historic range in Pakistan primarily due to its impact on livestock and livelihoods. We used non-invasive survey data from camera traps and genetic sampling to develop a habitat suitability model for C. lupus in northern Pakistan and to explore the extent of connectivity among populations. We detected suitable habitat of grey wolf using a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ver. 3.4.0) and identified suitable movement corridors using the Circuitscape 4.0 tool. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances, as seen from the values of area under curve (0.971±0.002) and true skill statistics (0.886±0.021). The main predictors for habitat suitability for C. lupus were distances to road, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and distance to river. The model predicted ca. 23,129 km2 of suitable areas for wolf in Pakistan, with much of suitable habitat in remote and inaccessible areas that appeared to be well connected through vulnerable movement corridors. These movement corridors suggest that potentially the wolf range can expand in Pakistan's Northern Areas. However, managing protected areas with stringent restrictions is challenging in northern Pakistan, in part due to heavy dependence of people on natural resources. The habitat suitability map provided by this study can inform future management strategies by helping authorities to identify key conservation areas.

Blood does not buy goodwill: allowing culling increases poaching of a large carnivore

Quantifying environmental crime and the effectiveness of policy interventions is difficult because perpetrators typically conceal evidence. To prevent illegal uses of natural resources, such as poaching endangered species, governments have advocated granting policy flexibility to local authorities by liberalizing culling or hunting of large carnivores. We present the first quantitative evaluation of the hypothesis that liberalizing culling will reduce poaching and improve population status of an endangered carnivore. We show that allowing wolf (Canis lupus) culling was substantially more likely to increase poaching than reduce it. Replicated, quasi-experimental changes in wolf policies in Wisconsin and Michigan, USA, revealed that a repeated policy signal to allow state culling triggered repeated slowdowns in wolf population growth, irrespective of the policy implementation measured as the number of wolves killed. The most likely explanation for these slowdowns was poaching and alternative explanations found no support. When the government kills a protected species, the perceived value of each individual of that species may decline; so liberalizing wolf culling may have sent a negative message about the value of wolves or acceptability of poaching. Our results suggest that granting management flexibility for endangered species to address illegal behaviour may instead promote such behaviour.

Risk map for wolf threats to livestock still predictive 5 years after construction

Risk maps are spatial models of environmental hazards such as predation on livestock. We tested the long-term validity of a published risk map built from locations where Wisconsin wolves attacked livestock from 1999-2006. Using data collected after model construction, we verified the predictive accuracy of the risk map exceeded 91% for the period 2007-2011. Predictive power lasting 5 years or more substantiates the claim that risk maps are both valid and verified tools for anticipating spatial hazards. Classification errors coincided with verifier uncertainty about which wolves might be responsible. Perceived threats by wolves to domestic animals were not as well predicted (82%) as verified attacks had been and errors in classification coincided with incidents involved domestic animals other than bovids and verifier uncertainty about which wolves were involved. We recommend risk maps be used to target interventions selectively at high-risk sites.

Native prey distribution and migration mediates wolf (Canis lupus) predation on domestic livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Little research has evaluated how the migration and distribution of native prey influence patterns of livestock depredation by large carnivores. Previous research suggests that the presence of native prey can increase depredation rates by attracting predators (prey tracking hypothesis). Alternatively, the absence of native prey may facilitate predation on livestock (prey scarcity hypothesis). In this study, we evaluated support for these competing hypotheses through analysis of 4 years of cattle (Bos taurus L., 1758) depredation data (n = 39 kills), 2 years of summer and fall wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) predation and tracking data (n = 4 wolves), and 3 years of elk (Cervus elaphus L., 1758) movement data (n = 70 elk). We used logistic regression to compare the relative influence of landscape features and elk distribution on the risk of livestock depredation in areas with migratory and resident elk. Cattle depredations occurred in habitats with increased encounter rates between wolves and livestock. In resident elk areas, depredation sites were associated with elk distribution and open roads. In migratory elk areas, depredation sites were associated with wolf dens, streams, and open habitat. Patterns of carnivore–livestock conflicts are complex, and using ungulate distribution data can predict and minimize such instances.

Spotted in the News: Using Media Reports to Examine Leopard Distribution, Depredation, and Management Practices outside Protected Areas in Southern India

There is increasing evidence of large carnivore presence outside protected areas, globally. Although this spells conservation success through population recoveries, it makes carnivore persistence in human-use landscapes tenuous. The widespread distribution of leopards in certain regions of India typifies this problem. We obtained information on leopard-human interactions at a regional scale in Karnataka State, India, based on systematic surveys of local media reports. We applied an innovative occupancy modelling approach to map their distribution patterns and identify hotspots of livestock/human depredation. We also evaluated management responses like removals of ‘problem’ leopards through capture and translocations. Leopards occupied around 84,000 km² or 47% of the State’s geographic area, outside designated national parks and wildlife sanctuaries. Their presence was facilitated by extent of vegetative cover- including irrigated croplands, rocky escarpments, and prey base in the form of feral and free-ranging dogs. Higher probabilities of livestock/human attacks by leopards were associated with similar ecological features as well as with capture/removals of leopards. Of the 56 cases of leopard removals reported, 91% did not involve human attacks, but followed livestock predation or only leopard sightings. The lack of knowledge on leopard ecology in human-use areas has resulted in unscientific interventions, which could aggravate the problem rather than mitigating it. Our results establish the presence of resident, breeding leopards in human-use areas. We therefore propose a shift in management focus, from current reactive practices like removal and translocation of leopards, to proactive measures that ensure safety of human lives and livelihoods.

A Conservation-Based Approach to Compensation for Livestock Depredation: The Florida Panther Case Study

Calf (Bos taurus) depredation by the federally endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) on ranches in southwest Florida is an important issue because ranches represent mixed landscapes that provide habitat critical to panther recovery. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify calf depredation by panthers on two ranches in southwest Florida, and (2) develop a habitat suitability model to evaluate the quality of panther hunting habitat on ranchlands, assess whether the model could predict predation risk to calves, and discuss its potential to be incorporated into an incentive-based compensation program. We ear-tagged 409 calves with VHF transmitters on two ranches during 2011–2013 to document calf mortality. We developed a model to evaluate the quality of panther hunting habitat on private lands in southwest Florida using environmental variables obtained from the Florida Natural Areas Inventory (FNAI) Cooperative Landcover Database and nocturnal GPS locations of panthers provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). We then tested whether the model could predict the location of calf depredation sites. Tagged calf loss to panthers varied between the two ranches (0.5%/yr to 5.3%/yr) and may have been influenced by the amount of panther hunting habitat on each ranch as the ranch that experienced higher depredation rates contained a significantly higher probability of panther presence. Depredation sites of tagged calves had a significantly greater probability of panther presence than depredation sites of untagged calves that were found by ranchers in open pastures. This suggests that there may be more calves killed in high risk environments than are being found and reported by ranchers and that panthers can hunt effectively in open environments. It also suggests that the model may provide a means for evaluating the quality of panther hunting habitat and the corresponding risk of depredation to livestock across the landscape. We suggest that our approach could be applied to prioritize and categorize private lands for participation in a Payment for Ecosystem Services program that compensates landowners for livestock loss and incentivizes conserving high quality habitat for large carnivores where livestock depredation is a concern.

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard (Panthera pardus) Predation on Domestic Animals

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.

Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict

Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should avoid to minimize human–carnivore conflict.