Testing Significance Testing

Strategic thinking in the shadow of self-enhancement: Benefits and costs

Using a variant of the hide-and-seek game, we show in three studies that self-enhancement can help or hinder strategic thinking. In this guessing game, one player chooses a number while another player tries to guess it. Each player does this either in a random fashion (throwing a mental die) or by active thinking. The structure of the game implies that guessers benefit from thinking about a number, whereas choosers are disadvantaged. Yet, regardless of their role, respondents prefer to actively think about a number. For choosers, the belief they can outthink the opponent amounts to self-enhancement, whereas for guessers, the same belief can be rationally justified. We discuss the implications of the findings for theories of strategic cognition and applications to real-world contexts.

Prediction and Explanation in a Postmodern World

The experimental research paradigm lies at the core of empirical psychology. New data analytical and computational tools continually enrich its methodological arsenal, while the paradigm's mission remains the testing of theoretical predictions and causal explanations. Predictions regarding experimental results necessarily point to the future. Once the data are collected, the causal inferences refer to a hypothesis now lying in the past. The experimental paradigm is not designed to permit strong inferences about particular incidents that occurred before predictions were made. In contrast, historical research and scholarship in other humanities focus on this backward direction of inference. The disconnect between forward-looking experimental psychology and backward-looking historical (i.e., narrative) psychology is a challenge in the postmodern era, which can be addressed. To illustrate this possibility, I discuss three historical case studies in light of theory and research in contemporary psychology.