Prospective Analysis of Minimum Pricing Policies to Reduce Excessive Alcohol Use and Related Harms in U.S. States

Estimating the Effects of Hypothetical Alcohol Minimum Unit Pricing Policies on Alcohol Use and Deaths: A State Example

OBJECTIVE

Alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) policies establish a floor price beneath which alcohol cannot be sold. The potential effectiveness of MUP policies for reducing alcohol-attributable deaths in the United States has not been quantitatively assessed. Therefore, this study estimated the effects of two hypothetical distilled spirits MUP policies on alcohol sales, consumption, and alcohol-attributable deaths in one state.

METHOD

The International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies tool was used to estimate the effects of two hypothetical MUP per standard drink policies (40-cent and 45-cent) pertaining to distilled spirits products at off-premises alcohol outlets in Michigan during 2020. Prevalence estimates on drinking patterns among Michigan adults were calculated by sex and age group. Prices per standard drink and sales of 9,747 spirits products were analyzed using National Alcohol Beverage Control Association data. Analyses accounted for other alcoholic beverage type sales using cross-price elasticities.

RESULTS

Increasing the MUP of the 3.5% of spirits with the lowest prices per standard drink to 40 cents could reduce total alcohol per capita consumption in Michigan by 2.6% and prevent 232 (5.3%) alcohol-attributable deaths annually. A 45-cent MUP would affect 8.0% of the spirits and reduce total alcohol per capita consumption by 3.9%, preventing 354 (8.1%) deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Modestly increasing the prices of the lowest-priced spirits with an MUP policy in a single state could save hundreds of lives annually. This suggests that alcohol MUP policies could be an effective strategy for improving public health in the United States, consistent with the World Health Organization's recommendation.

The effects of alcohol tax policies on alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders in Mainland of China: an interrupted time series analysis from 1961-2019

Background: Overwhelming evidence suggests that increasing alcohol taxes is an effective strategy for curbing alcohol consumption. However, research on the effects of such strategies in low- and middle-income nations is limited.Objective: The aim is to explore the temporal effect of alcohol tax policy in China.Methods: We employ interrupted time series analysis to investigate the temporal effects of tax policy changes on alcohol consumption and related consequences in Mainland China from 1961 to 2019. The study population, the total population of mainland region of China, aged more than 15 years.Results: The results show that the volume tax policy, which was announced in 2000 and implemented in 2001,  led to an immediate reduction in the alcohol consumption (coefficient = -0.429, p < .001). Following the implementation of higher alcohol taxes in 1998 and 2001, the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and related years lived with disability (YLDs) gradually decreased. The relaxation of tax policy in 2006 led to a significant increase in alcohol consumption, both immediately (coefficient = 0.406, p < .001) and in the middle term (coefficient = 0.495, p < .001), as well as contribute to an immediate or medium term significant increase in the prevalence of AUDs (coefficient = 0.038, p = .010; coefficient = 0.032, p < .001) and YLDs (coefficient = 4.363, p = .001; coefficient = 4.226, p < .001).Conclusion: This study demonstrates that changes in alcohol consumption and related consequences (increase or decrease) have followed corresponding changes in alcohol tax policies (easing or tightening), indicating that increasing alcohol taxes can be an effective strategy in China for controlling alcohol consumption and related harms.