Follow-up duration influences the relative importance of OGTT and optimal timing of glucose measurements for predicting future type 2 diabetes

One-hour plasma glucose as a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in a Chinese older male population without diabetes: A 20-year retrospective and prospective study

Introduction

Elevated one-hour plasma glucose (1 h-PG) during oral glucose tolerance test predicts the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications. However, to date, there have been no studies investigating the predictive values of 1 h-PG for the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in the elderly population in China. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of 1 h-PG and two-hour plasma glucose (2 h-PG) to predict the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in the Chinese elderly population.

Materials and methods

This retrospective and prospective cohort study was conducted using data obtained from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital. All the non-diabetic elderly participants, who had plasma glucose measured at 0, 1, and 2 h during an OGTT (75 g glucose), were followed for 20 years. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and stroke. Multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to examine the association between risk factors and outcomes and to estimate the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality based on 1 h-PG levels.

Results

A total of 862 non-diabetic male individuals were included. The median age was 74.0 (25th–75th percentile: 68.0–79.0) years. There were 480 CVD events and 191 deaths during 15,527 person-years of follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1 h-PG as a continuous variable was 1.097 (95% CI 1.027–1.172; P = 0.006) for CVD events and 1.196 (95% CI 1.115–1.281; P < 0.001) for higher risk of mortality. When compared with the lowest 1 h-PG tertile, the other tertiles were associated with CVD events (HR 1.464, 95% CI 1.031–2.080; P = 0.033 and HR 1.538, 95% CI 1.092–2.166; P = 0.014, for tertile 2 and tertile 3 compared with tertile 1, respectively), and the highest 1 h-PG tertile had a significantly higher risk of mortality (HR 2.384, 95% CI 1.631–3.485; P < 0.001) after full adjustment. Compared with 1 h-PG, 2 h-PG had similar abilities to predict all-cause mortality. However, 2 h-PG was less closely associated with CVD when examined in the fully adjusted model, neither as a continuous variable nor as a categorical variable. Conversely, 1 h-PG remained an independent predictor of CVD and all-cause mortality after adjusting for various traditional risk factors.

Conclusion

Patients with higher 1 h-PG had a significantly increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality regardless of prediabetes status or development of diabetes at follow-up. The 1 h-PG level might be a better predictor of cardiovascular risk than the 2 h-PG level for the Chinese elderly population.

One-Hour Postload Hyperglycemia: Implications for Prediction and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Recently, a value of 1-hour postload glucose concentration (1-h-PG) ≥155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) in individuals with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) has been found to be associated with an increased risk for future type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In this review, we analyze the implication of 1-h-PG determination in prediction of T2DM and cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

A literature search was performed using MEDLINE. We included all English studies published up to February 2018 in peer-reviewed journals that examined the relationship between 1-h-PG and diabetes, cardiometabolic alterations, organ damage, and cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Several longitudinal studies have consistently shown that 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL can recognize individuals at increased risk for future T2DM among subjects with NGT. Additionally, we describe the pathophysiological abnormalities associated with 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL including impaired insulin sensitivity, β-cell dysfunction, and increased glucose intestinal absorption, which are known to be involved in T2DM pathogenesis. Importantly, numerous studies have demonstrated that a value of 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL in individuals with NGT is not only linked to an increased risk for future T2DM, but also able to identify those having a worse cardiovascular phenotype and an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although 1-h-PG determination is not currently recommended by the American Diabetes Association for identifying high-risk individuals, the available evidence indicates that a value of 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL may be a useful tool to recognize, among subjects with NGT, those at increased risk of T2DM and cardiovascular disease.

One-hour glucose value as a long-term predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: the Malmö Preventive Project

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive capability of a 1-h vs 2-h postload glucose value for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective, population-based cohort study (Malmö Preventive Project) with subject inclusion 1974-1992.

METHODS

4934 men without known diabetes and cardiovascular disease, who had blood glucose (BG) measured at 0, 20, 40, 60, 90 and 120 min during an OGTT (30 g glucose per m² body surface area), were followed for 27 years. Data on cardiovascular events and death were obtained through national and local registries. Predictive capabilities of fasting BG (FBG) and glucose values obtained during OGTT alone and added to a clinical prediction model comprising traditional cardiovascular risk factors were assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

Median age was 48 (25th-75th percentile: 48-49) years and mean FBG 4.6 ± 0.6 mmol/L. FBG and 2-h postload BG did not independently predict cardiovascular events or death. Conversely, 1-h postload BG predicted cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and remained an independent predictor of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.16, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for various traditional risk factors. Clinical risk factors with added 1-h postload BG performed better than clinical risk factors alone, in predicting cardiovascular death (likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.0001; significant IDI, P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSION

Among men without known diabetes, addition of 1-h BG, but not FBG or 2-h BG, to clinical risk factors provided incremental prognostic yield for prediction of cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality.

Enhanced Predictive Capability of a 1-Hour Oral Glucose Tolerance Test: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the 1-h blood glucose measurement would be a more suitable screening tool for assessing the risk of diabetes and its complications than the 2-h measurement.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective population-based cohort study of 4,867 men, randomly selected from prespecified birth cohorts between 1921 and 1949, who underwent an oral glucose tolerance test with blood glucose measurements at 0, 1, and 2 h. Subjects were followed for up to 39 years, with registry-based recording of events. Discriminative abilities of elevated 1-h (≥8.6 mmol/L) versus 2-h (≥7.8 mmol/L) glucose for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, vascular complications, and mortality were compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression, and net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

Median age was 48 years (interquartile range [IQR] 48-49). During follow-up (median 33 years [IQR 24-37]), 636 (13%) developed type 2 diabetes. Elevated 1-h glucose was associated with incident diabetes (hazard ratio 3.40 [95% CI 2.90-3.98], P < 0.001) and provided better risk assessment than impaired glucose tolerance (Harrell concordance index 0.637 vs. 0.511, P < 0.001). Addition of a 1-h measurement in subjects stratified by fasting glucose provided greater net reclassification improvement than the addition of a 2-h measurement (0.214 vs. 0.016, respectively). Finally, the 1-h glucose was significantly associated with vascular complications and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1-h blood glucose level is a stronger predictor of future type 2 diabetes than the 2-h level and is associated with diabetes complications and mortality.

Area under the curve during OGTT in first-degree relatives of diabetic patients as an efficient indicator of future risk of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To establish whether the area under the curve of an OGTT has a predictive role in identifying prediabetic and diabetic subjects among first-degree relatives (FDR) of patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM).

DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

In a population-based cohort study, 766 FDR of diabetic patients with a normal glucose tolerance test (NGT) completed a 2-hour OGTT. They were followed up for 7 years and classified according to the American Diabetes Association criteria into: NGT, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and DM. Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis along with AUC at different intervals and at time points during the OGTT was used to evaluate the risk of prediabetes and diabetes.

RESULTS

Twenty-three subjects (3%) developed type 2 DM, 118 (29.3%) IFG, 81 (11.5%) IGT and 544 (71%) subjects remained NGT. AUC and mean difference of glucose in all high-risk groups demonstrated significant differences in both intervals and time points when compared to the NGT group. The cut-off values during OGTT to predict prediabetes and diabetes was determined as blood glucose more than 7.2 and 7.8 mmol/L at 30 and 60 minutes, respectively. The time point 60 has the highest predictive role for the development of diabetes, alone, and improved the performance of a prediction model containing multiple important clinical risk factors.

CONCLUSION

The data suggest that the glycaemic response to an OGTT may predict the risk of development of diabetes in first-degree relatives of DM patients.

One-hour and two-hour postload plasma glucose concentrations are comparable predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Southwestern Native Americans

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Elevated 2-h plasma glucose concentration (2 h-PG) during a 75 g OGTT predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1 h-PG) is associated with insulin secretion and may be a better predictor of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association between 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG using gold standard methods for measuring insulin secretion and action. We also compared 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG as predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

This analysis included adult volunteers without diabetes, predominantly Native Americans of Southwestern heritage, who were involved in a longitudinal epidemiological study from 1965 to 2007, with a baseline OGTT that included measurement of 1 h-PG. Group 1 (n = 716) underwent an IVGTT and hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp for measurement of acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin-stimulated glucose disposal (M), respectively. Some members of Group 1 (n = 490 of 716) and members of a second, larger, group (Group 2; n = 1946) were followed-up to assess the development of type 2 diabetes (median 9.0 and 12.8 years follow-up, respectively).

RESULTS

Compared with 2 h-PG (r = -0.281), 1 h-PG (r = -0.384) was more closely associated with AIR, whereas, compared with 1 h-PG (r = -0.340), 2 h-PG (r = -0.408) was more closely associated with M. Measures of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG had similar abilities to predict type 2 diabetes, which did not change when both were included in the model. A 1 h-PG cut-off of 9.3 mmol/l provided similar levels of sensitivity and specificity as a 2 h-PG cut-off of 7.8 mmol/l; the latter is used to define impaired glucose tolerance, a recognised predictor of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The 1 h-PG was associated with important physiological predictors of type 2 diabetes and was as effective as 2 h-PG for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus. The 1 h-PG is, therefore, an alternative method of identifying individuals with an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

[The monophasic pattern in oral glucose tolerance test as a predictive risk factor of type 2 diabetes in obese paediatric patients]

INTRODUCTION

The onset of obesity at young ages is strongly associated with the early development of type 2diabetes (T2D). The shape of the curves of glucose and insulin curves during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) could predict the risk of developing T2D.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the morphology of the OGTT and determine T2D risk factors in a mainly Caucasian population of children and adolescents.

METHODS

Observational retrospective study including 588 patients (309 males, 279 females) with a mean age of 11.1±2years, and of whom 90.3% were Caucasian. Risk factors for T2D were compared in patients with a monophasic or biphasic pattern during the performance of an OGTT, as well as anthropometric and biochemical variables, insulin resistance, and beta-cell function.

RESULTS

The shape of the glucose curve was monophasic in 50.2% of patients (50.8% male), biphasic in 48.5% (47.6% males), and indeterminate in 1.3%. The monophasic pattern showed lower insulin-sensitivity and worse beta-cell function. Patients with a biphasic pattern had a higher BMI, waist circumference, and blood pressure, although the results were not significant. Latin-American patients had significantly lower serum glucose levels with higher insulin levels during the OGTT.

CONCLUSIONS

The pattern of response to an OGTT reflects different metabolic phenotypes. Paediatric patients with a biphasic pattern have lower risk-profiling for T2D. The performing of an OGTT could be useful to implement early intervention strategies in children and adolescents with obesity, in order to prevent the development of pre-diabetes or T2D.