Genomic Selection in Multi-environment Crop Trials

Exploiting genomic tools for genetic dissection and improving the resistance to Fusarium stalk rot in tropical maize

KEY MESSAGE

A stable genomic region conferring FSR resistance at ~250 Mb on chromosome 1 was identified by GWAS. Genomic prediction has the potential to improve FSR resistance. Fusarium stalk rot (FSR) is a global destructive disease in maize; the efficiency of phenotypic selection for improving FSR resistance was low. Novel genomic tools of genome-wide association study (GWAS) and genomic prediction (GP) provide an opportunity for genetic dissection and improving FSR resistance. In this study, GWAS and GP analyses were performed on 562 tropical maize inbred lines consisting of two populations. In total, 15 SNPs significantly associated with FSR resistance were identified across two populations and the combinedPOP consisting of all 562 inbred lines, with the P-values ranging from 1.99 × 10-7 to 8.27 × 10-13, and the phenotypic variance explained (PVE) values ranging from 0.94 to 8.30%. The genetic effects of the 15 favorable alleles ranged from -4.29 to -14.21% of the FSR severity. One stable genomic region at ~ 250 Mb on chromosome 1 was detected across all populations, and the PVE values of the SNPs detected in this region ranged from 2.16 to 5.18%. Prediction accuracies of FSR severity estimated with the genome-wide SNPs were moderate and ranged from 0.29 to 0.51. By incorporating genotype-by-environment interaction, prediction accuracies were improved between 0.36 and 0.55 in different breeding scenarios. Considering both the genome coverage and the threshold of the P-value of SNPs to select a subset of molecular markers further improved the prediction accuracies. These findings extend the knowledge of exploiting genomic tools for genetic dissection and improving FSR resistance in tropical maize.

Using agro-ecological zones to improve the representation of a multi-environment trial of soybean varieties

This research introduces a novel framework for enhancing soybean cultivation in North America by categorizing growing environments into distinct ecological and maturity-based zones. Using an integrated analysis of long-term climatic data and records of soybean varietal trials, this research generates a zonal environmental characterization which captures major components of the growing environment which affect the range of adaptation of soybean varieties. These findings have immediate applications for optimizing multi-environment soybean trials. This characterization allows breeders to assess the environmental representation of a multi-environmental trial of soybean varieties, and to strategize the distribution of testing and the placement of test sites accordingly. This application is demonstrated with a historical scenario of a soybean multi-environment trial, using two resource allocation models: one targeted towards improving the general adaptation of soybean varieties, which focuses on widely cultivated areas, and one targeted towards specific adaptation, which captures diverse environmental conditions. Ultimately, the study aims to improve the efficiency and impact of soybean breeding programs, leading to the development of cultivars resilient to variable and changing climates.

Empirical comparison of time series models and tensor product penalised splines for modelling spatial dependence in plant breeding field trials

Plant breeding field trials are typically arranged as a row by column rectangular lattice. They have been widely analysed using linear mixed models in which low order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models, and the subclass of separable lattice processes, are used to account for two-dimensional spatial dependence between the plot errors. A separable first order autoregressive model has been shown to be particularly useful in the analysis of plant breeding trials. Recently, tensor product penalised splines (TPS) have been proposed to model two-dimensional smooth variation in field trial data. This represents a non-stochastic smoothing approach which is in contrast to the autoregressive (AR) approach which models a stochastic covariance structure between the lattice of errors. This paper compares the AR and TPS methods empirically for a large set of early generation plant breeding trials. Here, the fitted models include information on genetic relatedness among the entries being evaluated. This provides a more relevant framework for comparison than the assumption of independent genetic effects. Judged by Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), the AR models were a better fit than the TPS model for more than 80% of trials. In the cases where the TPS model provided a better fit it did so by only a small amount whereas the AR models made a substantial improvement across a range of trials. When the AR and TPS models differ, there can be marked differences in the ranking of genotypes between the two methods of analysis based on their predicted genetic effects. Using the best fitting model for a trial as the benchmark, the rate of mis-classification of entries for selection was greater for the TPS model than the AR models. This has important practical implications for breeder selection decisions.

Crop genomic selection with deep learning and environmental data: A survey

Machine learning techniques for crop genomic selections, especially for single-environment plants, are well-developed. These machine learning models, which use dense genome-wide markers to predict phenotype, routinely perform well on single-environment datasets, especially for complex traits affected by multiple markers. On the other hand, machine learning models for predicting crop phenotype, especially deep learning models, using datasets that span different environmental conditions, have only recently emerged. Models that can accept heterogeneous data sources, such as temperature, soil conditions and precipitation, are natural choices for modeling GxE in multi-environment prediction. Here, we review emerging deep learning techniques that incorporate environmental data directly into genomic selection models.

Genomic selection using random regressions on known and latent environmental covariates

The integration of known and latent environmental covariates within a single-stage genomic selection approach provides breeders with an informative and practical framework to utilise genotype by environment interaction for prediction into current and future environments. This paper develops a single-stage genomic selection approach which integrates known and latent environmental covariates within a special factor analytic framework. The factor analytic linear mixed model of Smith et al. (2001) is an effective method for analysing multi-environment trial (MET) datasets, but has limited practicality since the underlying factors are latent so the modelled genotype by environment interaction (GEI) is observable, rather than predictable. The advantage of using random regressions on known environmental covariates, such as soil moisture and daily temperature, is that the modelled GEI becomes predictable. The integrated factor analytic linear mixed model (IFA-LMM) developed in this paper includes a model for predictable and observable GEI in terms of a joint set of known and latent environmental covariates. The IFA-LMM is demonstrated on a late-stage cotton breeding MET dataset from Bayer CropScience. The results show that the known covariates predominately capture crossover GEI and explain 34.4% of the overall genetic variance. The most notable covariates are maximum downward solar radiation (10.1%), average cloud cover (4.5%) and maximum temperature (4.0%). The latent covariates predominately capture non-crossover GEI and explain 40.5% of the overall genetic variance. The results also show that the average prediction accuracy of the IFA-LMM is [Formula: see text] higher than conventional random regression models for current environments and [Formula: see text] higher for future environments. The IFA-LMM is therefore an effective method for analysing MET datasets which also utilises crossover and non-crossover GEI for genomic prediction into current and future environments. This is becoming increasingly important with the emergence of rapidly changing environments and climate change.

Sparse testing using genomic prediction improves selection for breeding targets in elite spring wheat

Sparse testing using genomic prediction can be efficiently used to increase the number of testing environments while maintaining selection intensity in the early yield testing stage without increasing the breeding budget. Sparse testing using genomic prediction enables expanded use of selection environments in early-stage yield testing without increasing phenotyping cost. We evaluated different sparse testing strategies in the yield testing stage of a CIMMYT spring wheat breeding pipeline characterized by multiple populations each with small family sizes of 1-9 individuals. Our results indicated that a substantial overlap between lines across environments should be used to achieve optimal prediction accuracy. As sparse testing leverages information generated within and across environments, the genetic correlations between environments and genomic relationships of lines across environments were the main drivers of prediction accuracy in multi-environment yield trials. Including information from previous evaluation years did not consistently improve the prediction performance. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction was found to be the best predictor of true breeding value, and therefore, we propose that it should be used as a selection decision metric in the early yield testing stages. We also propose it as a proxy for assessing prediction performance to mirror breeder's advancement decisions in a breeding program so that it can be readily applied for advancement decisions by breeding programs.

Plant Genotype to Phenotype Prediction Using Machine Learning

Genomic prediction tools support crop breeding based on statistical methods, such as the genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP). However, these tools are not designed to capture non-linear relationships within multi-dimensional datasets, or deal with high dimension datasets such as imagery collected by unmanned aerial vehicles. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to surpass the prediction accuracy of current tools used for genotype to phenotype prediction, due to their capacity to autonomously extract data features and represent their relationships at multiple levels of abstraction. This review addresses the challenges of applying statistical and machine learning methods for predicting phenotypic traits based on genetic markers, environment data, and imagery for crop breeding. We present the advantages and disadvantages of explainable model structures, discuss the potential of machine learning models for genotype to phenotype prediction in crop breeding, and the challenges, including the scarcity of high-quality datasets, inconsistent metadata annotation and the requirements of ML models.

Utilization Strategies of Two Environment Phenotypes in Genomic Prediction

Multiple environment phenotypes may be utilized to implement genomic prediction in plant breeding, while it is unclear about optimal utilization strategies according to its different availability. It is necessary to assess the utilization strategies of genomic prediction models based on different availability of multiple environment phenotypes. Here, we compared the prediction accuracy of three genomic prediction models (genomic prediction model (genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GFBLUP), and multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (mtGBLUP)) which leveraged diverse information from multiple environment phenotypes using a rice dataset containing 19 agronomic traits in two disparate seasons. We found that the prediction accuracy of genomic prediction models considering multiple environment phenotypes (GFBLUP and mtGBLUP) was better than the classical genomic prediction model (GBLUP model). The deviation of prediction accuracy of between GBLUP and mtGBLUP or GFBLUP was associated with the phenotypic correlation. In summary, the genomic prediction models considering multiple environment phenotypes (GFBLUP and mtGBLUP) demonstrated better prediction accuracy. In addition, we could utilize different genomic prediction strategies according to different availability of multiple environment phenotypes.

Open-source analytical pipeline for robust data analysis, visualizations and sharing in crop breeding

BACKGROUND

Developing a systematic phenotypic data analysis pipeline, creating enhanced visualizations, and interpreting the results is crucial to extract meaningful insights from data in making better breeding decisions. Here, we provide an overview of how the Rainfed Rice Breeding (RRB) program at IRRI has leveraged R computational power with open-source resource tools like R Markdown, plotly, LaTeX, and HTML to develop an open-source and end-to-end data analysis workflow and pipeline, and re-designed it to a reproducible document for better interpretations, visualizations and easy sharing with collaborators.

RESULTS

We reported the state-of-the-art implementation of the phenotypic data analysis pipeline and workflow embedded into a well-descriptive document. The developed analytical pipeline is open-source, demonstrating how to analyze the phenotypic data in crop breeding programs with step-by-step instructions. The analysis pipeline shows how to pre-process and check the quality of phenotypic data, perform robust data analysis using modern statistical tools and approaches, and convert it into a reproducible document. Explanatory text with R codes, outputs either in text, tables, or graphics, and interpretation of results are integrated into the unified document. The analysis is highly reproducible and can be regenerated at any time. The analytical pipeline source codes and demo data are available at https://github.com/whussain2/Analysis-pipeline .

CONCLUSION

The analysis workflow and document presented are not limited to IRRI's RRB program but are applicable to any organization or institute with full-fledged breeding programs. We believe this is a great initiative to modernize the data analysis of IRRI's RRB program. Further, this pipeline can be easily implemented by plant breeders or researchers, helping and guiding them in analyzing the breeding trials data in the best possible way.

Overview of Major Computer Packages for Genomic Prediction of Complex Traits

Genomic prediction models are showing their power to increase the rate of genetic gain by boosting all the elements of the breeder's equation. Insight into the factors associated with the successful implementation of this prediction model is increasing with time but the technology has reached a stage of acceptance. Most genomic prediction models require specialized computer packages based mainly on linear models and related methods. The number of computer packages has exploded in recent years given the interest in this technology. In this chapter, we explore the main computer packages available to fit these models; we also review the special features, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods behind the most popular computer packages.

Evidence for the Application of Emerging Technologies to Accelerate Crop Improvement - A Collaborative Pipeline to Introgress Herbicide Tolerance Into Chickpea

Accelerating genetic gain in crop improvement is required to ensure improved yield and yield stability under increasingly challenging climatic conditions. This case study demonstrates the effective confluence of innovative breeding technologies within a collaborative breeding framework to develop and rapidly introgress imidazolinone Group 2 herbicide tolerance into an adapted Australian chickpea genetic background. A well-adapted, high-yielding desi cultivar PBA HatTrick was treated with ethyl methanesulfonate to generate mutations in the ACETOHYDROXYACID SYNTHASE 1 (CaAHAS1) gene. After 2 years of field screening with imidazolinone herbicide across >20 ha and controlled environment progeny screening, two selections were identified which exhibited putative herbicide tolerance. Both selections contained the same single amino acid substitution, from alanine to valine at position 205 (A205V) in the AHAS1 protein, and KASP™ markers were developed to discriminate between tolerant and intolerant genotypes. A pipeline combining conventional crossing and F2 production with accelerated single seed descent from F2:4 and marker-assisted selection at F2 rapidly introgressed the herbicide tolerance trait from one of the mutant selections, D15PAHI002, into PBA Seamer, a desi cultivar adapted to Australian cropping areas. Field evaluation of the derivatives of the D15PAHI002 × PBA Seamer cross was analyzed using a factor analytic mixed model statistical approach designed to accommodate low seed numbers resulting from accelerated single seed descent. To further accelerate trait introgression, field evaluation trials were undertaken concurrent with crop safety testing trials. In 2020, 4 years after the initial cross, an advanced line selection CBA2061, bearing acetohydroxyacid synthase (AHAS) inhibitor tolerance and agronomic and disease resistance traits comparable to parent PBA Seamer, was entered into Australian National Variety Trials as a precursor to cultivar registration. The combination of cross-institutional collaboration and the application of novel pre-breeding platforms and statistical technologies facilitated a 3-year saving compared to a traditional breeding approach. This breeding pipeline can be used as a model to accelerate genetic gain in other self-pollinating species, particularly food legumes.

Increased Predictive Accuracy of Multi-Environment Genomic Prediction Model for Yield and Related Traits in Spring Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to improve the selection gain for complex traits in crop breeding programs from resource-poor countries. The GS model performance in multi-environment (ME) trials was assessed for 141 advanced breeding lines under four field environments via cross-predictions. We compared prediction accuracy (PA) of two GS models with or without accounting for the environmental variation on four quantitative traits of significant importance, i.e., grain yield (GRYLD), thousand-grain weight, days to heading, and days to maturity, under North and Central Indian conditions. For each trait, we generated PA using the following two different ME cross-validation (CV) schemes representing actual breeding scenarios: (1) predicting untested lines in tested environments through the ME model (ME_CV1) and (2) predicting tested lines in untested environments through the ME model (ME_CV2). The ME predictions were compared with the baseline single-environment (SE) GS model (SE_CV1) representing a breeding scenario, where relationships and interactions are not leveraged across environments. Our results suggested that the ME models provide a clear advantage over SE models in terms of robust trait predictions. Both ME models provided 2-3 times higher prediction accuracies for all four traits across the four tested environments, highlighting the importance of accounting environmental variance in GS models. While the improvement in PA from SE to ME models was significant, the CV1 and CV2 schemes did not show any clear differences within ME, indicating the ME model was able to predict the untested environments and lines equally well. Overall, our results provide an important insight into the impact of environmental variation on GS in smaller breeding programs where these programs can potentially increase the rate of genetic gain by leveraging the ME wheat breeding trials.

Genomic Selection in Sugarcane: Current Status and Future Prospects

Sugarcane is a C4 and agro-industry-based crop with a high potential for biomass production. It serves as raw material for the production of sugar, ethanol, and electricity. Modern sugarcane varieties are derived from the interspecific and intergeneric hybridization between Saccharum officinarum, Saccharum spontaneum, and other wild relatives. Sugarcane breeding programmes are broadly categorized into germplasm collection and characterization, pre-breeding and genetic base-broadening, and varietal development programmes. The varietal identification through the classic breeding programme requires a minimum of 12-14 years. The precise phenotyping in sugarcane is extremely tedious due to the high propensity of lodging and suckering owing to the influence of environmental factors and crop management practices. This kind of phenotyping requires data from both plant crop and ratoon experiments conducted over locations and seasons. In this review, we explored the feasibility of genomic selection schemes for various breeding programmes in sugarcane. The genetic diversity analysis using genome-wide markers helps in the formation of core set germplasm representing the total genomic diversity present in the Saccharum gene bank. The genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction in the Saccharum gene bank are helpful to identify the complete genomic resources for cane yield, commercial cane sugar, tolerances to biotic and abiotic stresses, and other agronomic traits. The implementation of genomic selection in pre-breeding, genetic base-broadening programmes assist in precise introgression of specific genes and recurrent selection schemes enhance the higher frequency of favorable alleles in the population with a considerable reduction in breeding cycles and population size. The integration of environmental covariates and genomic prediction in multi-environment trials assists in the prediction of varietal performance for different agro-climatic zones. This review also directed its focus on enhancing the genetic gain over time, cost, and resource allocation at various stages of breeding programmes.

OMICs, Epigenetics, and Genome Editing Techniques for Food and Nutritional Security

The incredible success of crop breeding and agricultural innovation in the last century greatly contributed to the Green Revolution, which significantly increased yields and ensures food security, despite the population explosion. However, new challenges such as rapid climate change, deteriorating soil, and the accumulation of pollutants require much faster responses and more effective solutions that cannot be achieved through traditional breeding. Further prospects for increasing the efficiency of agriculture are undoubtedly associated with the inclusion in the breeding strategy of new knowledge obtained using high-throughput technologies and new tools in the future to ensure the design of new plant genomes and predict the desired phenotype. This article provides an overview of the current state of research in these areas, as well as the study of soil and plant microbiomes, and the prospective use of their potential in a new field of microbiome engineering. In terms of genomic and phenomic predictions, we also propose an integrated approach that combines high-density genotyping and high-throughput phenotyping techniques, which can improve the prediction accuracy of quantitative traits in crop species.

Scalable Sparse Testing Genomic Selection Strategy for Early Yield Testing Stage

To enable a scalable sparse testing genomic selection (GS) strategy at preliminary yield trials in the CIMMYT maize breeding program, optimal approaches to incorporate genotype by environment interaction (GEI) in genomic prediction models are explored. Two cross-validation schemes were evaluated: CV1, predicting the genetic merit of new bi-parental populations that have been evaluated in some environments and not others, and CV2, predicting the genetic merit of half of a bi-parental population that has been phenotyped in some environments and not others using the coefficient of determination (CDmean) to determine optimized subsets of a full-sib family to be evaluated in each environment. We report similar prediction accuracies in CV1 and CV2, however, CV2 has an intuitive appeal in that all bi-parental populations have representation across environments, allowing efficient use of information across environments. It is also ideal for building robust historical data because all individuals of a full-sib family have phenotypic data, albeit in different environments. Results show that grouping of environments according to similar growing/management conditions improved prediction accuracy and reduced computational requirements, providing a scalable, parsimonious approach to multi-environmental trials and GS in early testing stages. We further demonstrate that complementing the full-sib calibration set with optimized historical data results in improved prediction accuracy for the cross-validation schemes.

Independent Validation of Genomic Prediction in Strawberry Over Multiple Cycles

The University of Florida strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa) breeding program has implemented genomic prediction (GP) as a tool for choosing outstanding parents for crosses over the last five seasons. This has allowed the use of some parents 1 year earlier than with traditional methods, thus reducing the duration of the breeding cycle. However, as the number of breeding cycles increases over time, greater knowledge is needed on how multiple cycles can be used in the practical implementation of GP in strawberry breeding. Advanced selections and cultivars totaling 1,558 unique individuals were tested in field trials for yield and fruit quality traits over five consecutive years and genotyped for 9,908 SNP markers. Prediction of breeding values was carried out using Bayes B models. Independent validation was carried out using separate trials/years as training (TRN) and testing (TST) populations. Single-trial predictive abilities for five polygenic traits averaged 0.35, which was reduced to 0.24 when individuals common across trials were excluded, emphasizing the importance of relatedness among training and testing populations. Training populations including up to four previous breeding cycles increased predictive abilities, likely due to increases in both training population size and relatedness. Predictive ability was also strongly influenced by heritability, but less so by changes in linkage disequilibrium and effective population size. Genotype by year interactions were minimal. A strategy for practical implementation of GP in strawberry breeding is outlined that uses multiple cycles to predict parental performance and accounts for traits not included in GP models when constructing crosses. Given the importance of relatedness to the success of GP in strawberry, future work could focus on the optimization of relatedness in the design of TRN and TST populations to increase predictive ability in the short-term without compromising long-term genetic gains.

Genome-based trait prediction in multi- environment breeding trials in groundnut

KEY MESSAGE

Comparative assessment identified naïve interaction model, and naïve and informed interaction GS models suitable for achieving higher prediction accuracy in groundnut keeping in mind the high genotype × environment interaction for complex traits. Genomic selection (GS) can be an efficient and cost-effective breeding approach which captures both small- and large-effect genetic factors and therefore promises to achieve higher genetic gains for complex traits such as yield and oil content in groundnut. A training population was constituted with 340 elite lines followed by genotyping with 58 K 'Axiom_Arachis' SNP array and phenotyping for key agronomic traits at three locations in India. Four GS models were tested using three different random cross-validation schemes (CV0, CV1 and CV2). These models are: (1) model 1 (M1 = E + L) which includes the main effects of environment (E) and line (L); (2) model 2 (M2 = E + L + G) which includes the main effects of markers (G) in addition to E and L; (3) model 3 (M3 = E + L + G + GE), a naïve interaction model; and (4) model 4 (E + L + G + LE + GE), a naïve and informed interaction model. Prediction accuracy estimated for four models indicated clear advantage of the inclusion of marker information which was reflected in better prediction accuracy achieved with models M2, M3 and M4 as compared to M1 model. High prediction accuracies (> 0.600) were observed for days to 50% flowering, days to maturity, hundred seed weight, oleic acid, rust@90 days, rust@105 days and late leaf spot@90 days, while medium prediction accuracies (0.400-0.600) were obtained for pods/plant, shelling  %, and total yield/plant. Assessment of comparative prediction accuracy for different GS models to perform selection for untested genotypes, and unobserved and unevaluated environments provided greater insights on potential application of GS breeding in groundnut.

Advancing crested wheatgrass [Agropyron cristatum (L.) Gaertn.] breeding through genotyping-by-sequencing and genomic selection

Crested wheatgrass [Agropyron cristatum (L.) Gaertn.] provides high quality, highly palatable forage for early season grazing. Genetic improvement of crested wheatgrass has been challenged by its complex genome, outcrossing nature, long breeding cycle, and lack of informative molecular markers. Genomic selection (GS) has potential for improving traits of perennial forage species, and genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) has enabled the development of genome-wide markers in non-model polyploid plants. An attempt was made to explore the utility of GBS and GS in crested wheatgrass breeding. Sequencing and phenotyping 325 genotypes representing 10 diverse breeding lines were performed. Bioinformatics analysis identified 827, 3,616, 14,090 and 46,136 single nucleotide polymorphism markers at 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% missing marker levels, respectively. Four GS models (BayesA, BayesB, BayesCπ, and rrBLUP) were examined for the accuracy of predicting nine agro-morphological and three nutritive value traits. Moderate accuracy (0.20 to 0.32) was obtained for the prediction of heading days, leaf width, plant height, clump diameter, tillers per plant and early spring vigor for genotypes evaluated at Saskatoon, Canada. Similar accuracy (0.29 to 0.35) was obtained for predicting fall regrowth and plant height for genotypes evaluated at Swift Current, Canada. The Bayesian models displayed similar or higher accuracy than rrBLUP. These findings show the feasibility of GS application for a non-model species to advance plant breeding.

Epigenetics: possible applications in climate-smart crop breeding

To better adapt transiently or lastingly to stimuli from the surrounding environment, the chromatin states in plant cells vary to allow the cells to fine-tune their transcriptional profiles. Modifications of chromatin states involve a wide range of post-transcriptional histone modifications, histone variants, DNA methylation, and activity of non-coding RNAs, which can epigenetically determine specific transcriptional outputs. Recent advances in the area of '-omics' of major crops have facilitated identification of epigenetic marks and their effect on plant response to environmental stresses. As most epigenetic mechanisms are known from studies in model plants, we summarize in this review recent epigenetic studies that may be important for improvement of crop adaptation and resilience to environmental changes, ultimately leading to the generation of stable climate-smart crops. This has paved the way for exploitation of epigenetic variation in crop breeding.

Increased Prediction Ability in Norway Spruce Trials Using a Marker X Environment Interaction and Non-Additive Genomic Selection Model

A genomic selection study of growth and wood quality traits is reported based on control-pollinated Norway spruce families established in 2 Northern Swedish trials at 2 locations using exome capture as a genotyping platform. Nonadditive effects including dominance and first-order epistatic interactions (including additive-by-additive, dominance-by-dominance, and additive-by-dominance) and marker-by-environment interaction (M×E) effects were dissected in genomic and phenotypic selection models. Genomic selection models partitioned additive and nonadditive genetic variances more precisely than pedigree-based models. In addition, predictive ability in GS was substantially increased by including dominance and slightly increased by including M×E effects when these effects are significant. For velocity, response to genomic selection per year increased up to 78.9/80.8%, 86.9/82.9%, and 91.3/88.2% compared with response to phenotypic selection per year when genomic selection was based on 1) main marker effects (M), 2) M + M×E effects (A), and 3) A + dominance effects (AD) for sites 1 and 2, respectively. This indicates that including M×E and dominance effects not only improves genetic parameter estimates but also when they are significant may improve the genetic gain. For tree height, Pilodyn, and modulus of elasticity (MOE), response to genomic selection per year improved up to 68.9%, 91.3%, and 92.6% compared with response to phenotypic selection per year, respectively.Subject Area: Quantitative genetics and Mendelian inheritance

Genomic Prediction Enhanced Sparse Testing for Multi-environment Trials

“Sparse testing” refers to reduced multi-environment breeding trials in which not all genotypes of interest are grown in each environment. Using genomic-enabled prediction and a model embracing genotype × environment interaction (GE), the non-observed genotype-in-environment combinations can be predicted. Consequently, the overall costs can be reduced and the testing capacities can be increased. The accuracy of predicting the unobserved data depends on different factors including (1) how many genotypes overlap between environments, (2) in how many environments each genotype is grown, and (3) which prediction method is used. In this research, we studied the predictive ability obtained when using a fixed number of plots and different sparse testing designs. The considered designs included the extreme cases of (1) no overlap of genotypes between environments, and (2) complete overlap of the genotypes between environments. In the latter case, the prediction set fully consists of genotypes that have not been tested at all. Moreover, we gradually go from one extreme to the other considering (3) intermediates between the two previous cases with varying numbers of different or non-overlapping (NO)/overlapping (O) genotypes. The empirical study is built upon two different maize hybrid data sets consisting of different genotypes crossed to two different testers (T1 and T2) and each data set was analyzed separately. For each set, phenotypic records on yield from three different environments are available. Three different prediction models were implemented, two main effects models (M1 and M2), and a model (M3) including GE. The results showed that the genome-based model including GE (M3) captured more phenotypic variation than the models that did not include this component. Also, M3 provided higher prediction accuracy than models M1 and M2 for the different allocation scenarios. Reducing the size of the calibration sets decreased the prediction accuracy under all allocation designs with M3 being the less affected model; however, using the genome-enabled models (i.e., M2 and M3) the predictive ability is recovered when more genotypes are tested across environments. Our results indicate that a substantial part of the testing resources can be saved when using genome-based models including GE for optimizing sparse testing designs.

Genomic Prediction of Agronomic Traits in Common Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Under Environmental Stress

In plant and animal breeding, genomic prediction models are established to select new lines based on genomic data, without the need for laborious phenotyping. Prediction models can be trained on recent or historic phenotypic data and increasingly available genotypic data. This enables the adoption of genomic selection also in under-used legume crops such as common bean. Beans are an important staple food in the tropics and mainly grown by smallholders under limiting environmental conditions such as drought or low soil fertility. Therefore, genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E) are an important consideration when developing new bean varieties. However, G × E are often not considered in genomic prediction models nor are these models implemented in current bean breeding programs. Here we show the prediction abilities of four agronomic traits in common bean under various environmental stresses based on twelve field trials. The dataset includes 481 elite breeding lines characterized by 5,820 SNP markers. Prediction abilities over all twelve trials ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 for yield and days to maturity, respectively, predicting new lines into new seasons. In all four evaluated traits, the prediction abilities reached about 50-80% of the maximum accuracies given by phenotypic correlations and heritability. Predictions under drought and low phosphorus stress were up to 10 and 20% improved when G × E were included in the model, respectively. Our results demonstrate the potential of genomic selection to increase the genetic gain in common bean breeding. Prediction abilities improved when more phenotypic data was available and G × E could be accounted for. Furthermore, the developed models allowed us to predict genotypic performance under different environmental stresses. This will be a key factor in the development of common bean varieties adapted to future challenging conditions.

Genomic Prediction and Genetic Correlation of Agronomic, Blackleg Disease, and Seed Quality Traits in Canola (Brassica napus L.)

Genomic selection accelerates genetic progress in crop breeding through the prediction of future phenotypes of selection candidates based on only their genomic information. Here we report genetic correlations and genomic prediction accuracies in 22 agronomic, disease, and seed quality traits measured across multiple years (2015-2017) in replicated trials under rain-fed and irrigated conditions in Victoria, Australia. Two hundred and two spring canola lines were genotyped for 62,082 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) using transcriptomic genotype-by-sequencing (GBSt). Traits were evaluated in single trait and bivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models and cross-validation. GBLUP were also expanded to include genotype-by-environment G × E interactions. Genomic heritability varied from 0.31to 0.66. Genetic correlations were highly positive within traits across locations and years. Oil content was positively correlated with most agronomic traits. Strong, not previously documented, negative correlations were observed between average internal infection (a measure of blackleg disease) and arachidic and stearic acids. The genetic correlations between fatty acid traits followed the expected patterns based on oil biosynthesis pathways. Genomic prediction accuracy ranged from 0.29 for emergence count to 0.69 for seed yield. The incorporation of G × E translates into improved prediction accuracy by up to 6%. The genomic prediction accuracies achieved indicate that genomic selection is ready for application in canola breeding.

Enhancing Crop Domestication Through Genomic Selection, a Case Study of Intermediate Wheatgrass

Perennial grains could simultaneously provide food for humans and a host of ecosystem services, including reduced erosion, minimized nitrate leaching, and increased carbon capture. Yet most of the world's food and feed is supplied by annual grains. Efforts to domesticate intermediate wheatgrass (Thinopyrumn intermedium, IWG) as a perennial grain crop have been ongoing since the 1980's. Currently, there are several breeding programs within North America and Europe working toward developing IWG into a viable crop. As new breeding efforts are established to provide a widely adapted crop, questions of how genomic and phenotypic data can be used among sites and breeding programs have emerged. Utilizing five cycles of breeding data that span 8 years and two breeding programs, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and The Land Institute, Salina, KS, we developed genomic selection (GS) models to predict IWG traits. Seven traits were evaluated with free-threshing seed, seed mass, and non-shattering being considered domestication traits while agronomic traits included spike yield, spikelets per inflorescence, plant height, and spike length. We used 6,199 genets - unique, heterozygous, individual plants - that had been profiled with genotyping-by-sequencing, resulting in 23,495 SNP markers to develop GS models. Within cycles, the predictive ability of GS was high, ranging from 0.11 to 0.97. Across-cycle predictions were generally much lower, ranging from -0.22 to 0.76. The prediction ability for domestication traits was higher than agronomic traits, with non-shattering and free threshing prediction abilities ranging from 0.27 to 0.75 whereas spike yield had prediction abilities ranging from -0.22 to 0.26. These results suggest that progress to reduce shattering and increase the percent free-threshing grain can be made irrespective of the location and breeding program. While site-specific programs may be required for agronomic traits, synergies can be achieved in rapidly improving key domestication traits for IWG. As other species are targeted for domestication, these results will aid in rapidly domesticating new crops.

Unraveling candidate genes underlying biomass digestibility in elephant grass (Cenchrus purpureus)

BACKGROUND

Elephant grass [Cenchrus purpureus (Schumach.) Morrone] is used for bioenergy and animal feed. In order to identify candidate genes that could be exploited for marker-assisted selection in elephant grass, this study aimed to investigate changes in predictive accuracy using genomic relationship information and simple sequence repeats for eight traits (height, green biomass, dry biomass, acid and neutral detergent fiber, lignin content, biomass digestibility, and dry matter concentration) linked to bioenergetics and animal feeding.

RESULTS

We used single-step, genome-based best linear unbiased prediction and genome association methods to investigate changes in predictive accuracy and find candidate genes using genomic relationship information. Genetic variability (p < 0.05) was detected for most of the traits evaluated. In general, the overall means for the traits varied widely over the cuttings, which was corroborated by a significant genotype by cutting interaction. Knowing the genomic relationships increased the predictive accuracy of the biomass quality traits. We found that one marker (M28_161) was significantly associated with high values of biomass digestibility. The marker had moderate linkage disequilibrium with another marker (M35_202) that, in general, was detected in genotypes with low values of biomass digestibility. In silico analysis revealed that both markers have orthologous regions in other C4 grasses such as Setaria viridis, Panicum hallii, and Panicum virgatum, and these regions are located close to candidate genes involved in the biosynthesis of cell wall molecules (xyloglucan and lignin), which support their association with biomass digestibility.

CONCLUSIONS

The markers and candidate genes identified here are useful for breeding programs aimed at changing biomass digestibility in elephant grass. These markers can be used in marker-assisted selection to grow elephant grass cultivars for different uses, e.g., bioenergy production, bio-based products, co-products, bioactive compounds, and animal feed.

Genomic selection in multi-environment plant breeding trials using a factor analytic linear mixed model

Genomic selection (GS) is a statistical and breeding methodology designed to improve genetic gain. It has proven to be successful in animal breeding; however, key points of difference have not been fully considered in the transfer of GS from animal to plant breeding. In plant breeding, individuals (varieties) are typically evaluated across a number of locations in multiple years (environments) in formally designed comparative experiments, called multi-environment trials (METs). The design structure of individual trials can be complex and needs to be modelled appropriately. Another key feature of MET data sets is the presence of variety by environment interaction (VEI), that is the differential response of varieties to a change in environment. In this paper, a single-step factor analytic linear mixed model is developed for plant breeding MET data sets that incorporates molecular marker data, appropriately accommodates non-genetic sources of variation within trials and models VEI. A recently developed set of selection tools, which are natural derivatives of factor analytic models, are used to facilitate GS for a motivating data set from an Australian plant breeding company. The power and versatility of these tools is demonstrated for the variety by environment and marker by environment effects.

Prediction of genetic value for sweet cherry fruit maturity among environments using a 6K SNP array

The timing of fruit maturity is an important trait in sweet cherry production and breeding. Phenotypic variation for phenology of fruit maturity in sweet cherry appears to be under strong genetic control, but that control might be complicated by phenotypic instability across environments. Although such genotype-by-environment interaction (G × E) is a common phenomenon in crop plants, knowledge about it is lacking for fruit maturity timing and other sweet cherry traits. In this study, 1673 genome-wide SNP markers were used to estimate genomic relationships among 597 weakly pedigree-connected individuals evaluated over two seasons at three locations in Europe and one location in the USA, thus sampling eight 'environments'. The combined dataset enabled a single meta-analysis to investigate the environmental stability of genomic predictions. Linkage disequilibrium among marker loci declined rapidly with physical distance, and ordination of the relationship matrix suggested no strong structure among germplasm. The most parsimonious G × E model allowed heterogeneous genetic variance and pairwise covariances among environments. Narrow-sense genomic heritability was very high (0.60-0.83), as was accuracy of predicted breeding values (>0.62). Average correlation of additive effects among environments was high (0.96) and breeding values were highly correlated across locations. Results indicated that genomic models can be used in cherry to accurately predict date of fruit maturity for untested individuals in new environments. Limited G × E for this trait indicated that phenotypes of individuals will be stable across similar environments. Equivalent analyses for other sweet cherry traits, for which multiple years of data are commonly available among breeders and cultivar testers, would be informative for predicting performance of elite selections and cultivars in new environments.

Genomic Selection in Rubber Tree Breeding: A Comparison of Models and Methods for Managing G×E Interactions

Several genomic prediction models combining genotype × environment (G×E) interactions have recently been developed and used for genomic selection (GS) in plant breeding programs. G×E interactions reduce selection accuracy and limit genetic gains in plant breeding. Two data sets were used to compare the prediction abilities of multienvironment G×E genomic models and two kernel methods. Specifically, a linear kernel, or GB (genomic best linear unbiased predictor [GBLUP]), and a nonlinear kernel, or Gaussian kernel (GK), were used to compare the prediction accuracies (PAs) of four genomic prediction models: 1) a single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM); 2) a multienvironment, main genotypic effect model (MM); 3) a multienvironment, single-variance G×E deviation model (MDs); and 4) a multienvironment, environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe). We evaluated the utility of genomic selection (GS) for 435 individual rubber trees at two sites and genotyped the individuals via genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Prediction models were used to estimate stem circumference (SC) during the first 4 years of tree development in conjunction with a broad-sense heritability (H ²) of 0.60. Applying the model (SM, MM, MDs, and MDe) and kernel method (GB and GK) combinations to the rubber tree data revealed that the multienvironment models were superior to the single-environment genomic models, regardless of the kernel (GB or GK) used, suggesting that introducing interactions between markers and environmental conditions increases the proportion of variance explained by the model and, more importantly, the PA. Compared with the classic breeding method (CBM), methods in which GS is incorporated resulted in a 5-fold increase in response to selection for SC with multienvironment GS (MM, MDe, or MDs). Furthermore, GS resulted in a more balanced selection response for SC and contributed to a reduction in selection time when used in conjunction with traditional genetic breeding programs. Given the rapid advances in genotyping methods and their declining costs and given the overall costs of large-scale progeny testing and shortened breeding cycles, we expect GS to be implemented in rubber tree breeding programs.

Genomic Selection for Ascochyta Blight Resistance in Pea

Genomic selection (GS) is a breeding tool, which is rapidly gaining popularity for plant breeding, particularly for traits that are difficult to measure. One such trait is ascochyta blight resistance in pea (Pisum sativum L.), which is difficult to assay because it is strongly influenced by the environment and depends on the natural occurrence of multiple pathogens. Here we report a study of the efficacy of GS for predicting ascochyta blight resistance in pea, as represented by ascochyta blight disease score (ASC), and using nucleotide polymorphism data acquired through genotyping-by-sequencing. The effects on prediction accuracy of different GS models and different thresholds for missing genotypic data (which modified the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms used in the analysis) were compared using cross-validation. Additionally, the inclusion of marker × environment interactions in a genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model was evaluated. Finally, different ways of combining trait data from two field trials using bivariate, spatial, and single-stage analyses were compared to results obtained using a mean value. The best prediction accuracy achieved for ASC was 0.56, obtained using GBLUP analysis with a mean value for ASC and data quality threshold of 70% (i.e., missing SNP data in <30% of lines). GBLUP and Bayesian Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regression (RKHS) performed slightly better than the other models trialed, whereas different missing data thresholds made minimal differences to prediction accuracy. The prediction accuracies of individual, randomly selected, testing/training partitions were highly variable, highlighting the effect that the choice of training population has on prediction accuracy. The inclusion of marker × environment interactions did not increase the prediction accuracy for lines which had not been phenotyped, but did improve the results of prediction across environments. GS is potentially useful for pea breeding programs pursuing ascochyta blight resistance, both for predicting breeding values for lines that have not been phenotyped, and for providing enhanced estimated breeding values for lines for which trait data is available.

Accuracy of genomic selection for growth and wood quality traits in two control-pollinated progeny trials using exome capture as the genotyping platform in Norway spruce

BACKGROUND

Genomic selection (GS) can increase genetic gain by reducing the length of breeding cycle in forest trees. Here we genotyped 1370 control-pollinated progeny trees from 128 full-sib families in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), using exome capture as genotyping platform. We used 116,765 high-quality SNPs to develop genomic prediction models for tree height and wood quality traits. We assessed the impact of different genomic prediction methods, genotype-by-environment interaction (G × E), genetic composition, size of the training and validation set, relatedness, and number of SNPs on accuracy and predictive ability (PA) of GS.

RESULTS

Using G matrix slightly altered heritability estimates relative to pedigree-based method. GS accuracies were about 11-14% lower than those based on pedigree-based selection. The efficiency of GS per year varied from 1.71 to 1.78, compared to that of the pedigree-based model if breeding cycle length was halved using GS. Height GS accuracy decreased to more than 30% while using one site as training for GS prediction and using this model to predict the second site, indicating that G × E for tree height should be accommodated in model fitting. Using a half-sib family structure instead of full-sib structure led to a significant reduction in GS accuracy and PA. The full-sib family structure needed only 750 markers to reach similar accuracy and PA, as compared to 100,000 markers required for the half-sib family, indicating that maintaining the high relatedness in the model improves accuracy and PA. Using 4000-8000 markers in full-sib family structure was sufficient to obtain GS model accuracy and PA for tree height and wood quality traits, almost equivalent to that obtained with all markers.

CONCLUSIONS

The study indicates that GS would be efficient in reducing generation time of breeding cycle in conifer tree breeding program that requires long-term progeny testing. The sufficient number of trees within-family (16 for growth and 12 for wood quality traits) and number of SNPs (8000) are required for GS with full-sib family relationship. GS methods had little impact on GS efficiency for growth and wood quality traits. GS model should incorporate G × E effect when a strong G × E is detected.

Accuracy of genomic selection for growth and wood quality traits in two control-pollinated progeny trials using exome capture as the genotyping platform in Norway spruce

BACKGROUND

Genomic selection (GS) can increase genetic gain by reducing the length of breeding cycle in forest trees. Here we genotyped 1370 control-pollinated progeny trees from 128 full-sib families in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), using exome capture as genotyping platform. We used 116,765 high-quality SNPs to develop genomic prediction models for tree height and wood quality traits. We assessed the impact of different genomic prediction methods, genotype-by-environment interaction (G × E), genetic composition, size of the training and validation set, relatedness, and number of SNPs on accuracy and predictive ability (PA) of GS.

RESULTS

Using G matrix slightly altered heritability estimates relative to pedigree-based method. GS accuracies were about 11-14% lower than those based on pedigree-based selection. The efficiency of GS per year varied from 1.71 to 1.78, compared to that of the pedigree-based model if breeding cycle length was halved using GS. Height GS accuracy decreased to more than 30% while using one site as training for GS prediction and using this model to predict the second site, indicating that G × E for tree height should be accommodated in model fitting. Using a half-sib family structure instead of full-sib structure led to a significant reduction in GS accuracy and PA. The full-sib family structure needed only 750 markers to reach similar accuracy and PA, as compared to 100,000 markers required for the half-sib family, indicating that maintaining the high relatedness in the model improves accuracy and PA. Using 4000-8000 markers in full-sib family structure was sufficient to obtain GS model accuracy and PA for tree height and wood quality traits, almost equivalent to that obtained with all markers.

CONCLUSIONS

The study indicates that GS would be efficient in reducing generation time of breeding cycle in conifer tree breeding program that requires long-term progeny testing. The sufficient number of trees within-family (16 for growth and 12 for wood quality traits) and number of SNPs (8000) are required for GS with full-sib family relationship. GS methods had little impact on GS efficiency for growth and wood quality traits. GS model should incorporate G × E effect when a strong G × E is detected.

Genomic-enabled prediction models using multi-environment trials to estimate the effect of genotype × environment interaction on prediction accuracy in chickpea

Genomic selection (GS) by selecting lines prior to field phenotyping using genotyping data has the potential to enhance the rate of genetic gains. Genotype × environment (G × E) interaction inclusion in GS models can improve prediction accuracy hence aid in selection of lines across target environments. Phenotypic data on 320 chickpea breeding lines for eight traits for three seasons at two locations were recorded. These lines were genotyped using DArTseq (1.6 K SNPs) and Genotyping-by-Sequencing (GBS; 89 K SNPs). Thirteen models were fitted including main effects of environment and lines, markers, and/or naïve and informed interactions to estimate prediction accuracies. Three cross-validation schemes mimicking real scenarios that breeders might encounter in the fields were considered to assess prediction accuracy of the models (CV2: incomplete field trials or sparse testing; CV1: newly developed lines; and CV0: untested environments). Maximum prediction accuracies for different traits and different models were observed with CV2. DArTseq performed better than GBS and the combined genotyping set (DArTseq and GBS) regardless of the cross validation scheme with most of the main effect marker and interaction models. Improvement of GS models and application of various genotyping platforms are key factors for obtaining accurate and precise prediction accuracies, leading to more precise selection of candidates.

Impact of residual covariance structures on genomic prediction ability in multi-environment trials

In plant breeding, one of the main purpose of multi-environment trial (MET) is to assess the intensity of genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions in order to select high-performing lines of each environment. Most models to analyze such MET data consider only the additive genetic effects and the part of the non-additive genetic effects are confounded with the residual terms and this may lead to the non-negligible residual covariances between the same trait measured at multiple environments. In breeding programs it is also common to have the phenotype information from some environments available and values are missing in some other environments. In this study we focused on two problems: (1) to study the impact of different residual covariance structures on genomic prediction ability using different models to analyze MET data; (2) to compare the ability of different MET analysis models to predict the missing values in a single environment. Our results suggests that, it is important to consider the heterogeneous residual covariance structure for the MET analysis and multivariate mixed model seems to be especially suitable to predict the missing values in a single environment. We also present the prediction abilities based on Bayesian and frequentist approaches with different models using field data sets (maize and rice) having different levels of G×E interactions.

Genomic Prediction Using Individual-Level Data and Summary Statistics from Multiple Populations

This study presents a method for genomic prediction that uses individual-level data and summary statistics from multiple populations. Genome-wide markers are nowadays widely used to predict complex traits, and genomic prediction using multi-population data are an appealing approach to achieve higher prediction accuracies. However, sharing of individual-level data across populations is not always possible. We present a method that enables integration of summary statistics from separate analyses with the available individual-level data. The data can either consist of individuals with single or multiple (weighted) phenotype records per individual. We developed a method based on a hypothetical joint analysis model and absorption of population-specific information. We show that population-specific information is fully captured by estimated allele substitution effects and the accuracy of those estimates, i.e., the summary statistics. The method gives identical result as the joint analysis of all individual-level data when complete summary statistics are available. We provide a series of easy-to-use approximations that can be used when complete summary statistics are not available or impractical to share. Simulations show that approximations enable integration of different sources of information across a wide range of settings, yielding accurate predictions. The method can be readily extended to multiple-traits. In summary, the developed method enables integration of genome-wide data in the individual-level or summary statistics from multiple populations to obtain more accurate estimates of allele substitution effects and genomic predictions.

Accurate genomic prediction of Coffea canephora in multiple environments using whole-genome statistical models

Genomic selection has been proposed as the standard method to predict breeding values in animal and plant breeding. Although some crops have benefited from this methodology, studies in Coffea are still emerging. To date, there have been no studies describing how well genomic prediction models work across populations and environments for different complex traits in coffee. Considering that predictive models are based on biological and statistical assumptions, it is expected that their performance vary depending on how well these assumptions align with the true genetic architecture of the phenotype. To investigate this, we used data from two recurrent selection populations of Coffea canephora, evaluated in two locations, and single nucleotide polymorphisms identified by Genotyping-by-Sequencing. In particular, we evaluated the performance of 13 statistical approaches to predict three important traits in the coffee-production of coffee beans, leaf rust incidence and yield of green beans. Analyses were performed for predictions within-environment, across locations and across populations to assess the reliability of genomic selection. Overall, differences in the prediction accuracy of the competing models were small, although the Bayesian methods showed a modest improvement over other methods, at the cost of more computation time. As expected, predictive accuracy for within-environment analysis, on average, were higher than predictions across locations and across populations. Our results support the potential of genomic selection to reshape traditional plant breeding schemes. In practice, we expect to increase the genetic gain per unit of time by reducing the length cycle of recurrent selection in coffee.

Accounting for Genotype-by-Environment Interactions and Residual Genetic Variation in Genomic Selection for Water-Soluble Carbohydrate Concentration in Wheat

Abiotic stress tolerance traits are often complex and recalcitrant targets for conventional breeding improvement in many crop species. This study evaluated the potential of genomic selection to predict water-soluble carbohydrate concentration (WSCC), an important drought tolerance trait, in wheat under field conditions. A panel of 358 varieties and breeding lines constrained for maturity was evaluated under rainfed and irrigated treatments across two locations and two years. Whole-genome marker profiles and factor analytic mixed models were used to generate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for specific environments and environment groups. Additive genetic variance was smaller than residual genetic variance for WSCC, such that genotypic values were dominated by residual genetic effects rather than additive breeding values. As a result, GEBVs were not accurate predictors of genotypic values of the extant lines, but GEBVs should be reliable selection criteria to choose parents for intermating to produce new populations. The accuracy of GEBVs for untested lines was sufficient to increase predicted genetic gain from genomic selection per unit time compared to phenotypic selection if the breeding cycle is reduced by half by the use of GEBVs in off-season generations. Further, genomic prediction accuracy depended on having phenotypic data from environments with strong correlations with target production environments to build prediction models. By combining high-density marker genotypes, stress-managed field evaluations, and mixed models that model simultaneously covariances among genotypes and covariances of complex trait performance between pairs of environments, we were able to train models with good accuracy to facilitate genetic gain from genomic selection.

Historical Datasets Support Genomic Selection Models for the Prediction of Cotton Fiber Quality Phenotypes Across Multiple Environments

Genomic selection (GS) has successfully been used in plant breeding to improve selection efficiency and reduce breeding time and cost. However, there has not been a study to evaluate GS prediction models that may be used for predicting cotton breeding lines across multiple environments. In this study, we evaluated the performance of Bayes Ridge Regression, BayesA, BayesB, BayesC and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces regression models. We then extended the single-site GS model to accommodate genotype × environment interaction (G×E) in order to assess the merits of multi- over single-environment models in a practical breeding and selection context in cotton, a crop for which this has not previously been evaluated. Our study was based on a population of 215 upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) breeding lines which were evaluated for fiber length and strength at multiple locations in Australia and genotyped with 13,330 single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) markers. BayesB, which assumes unique variance for each marker and a proportion of markers to have large effects, while most other markers have zero effect, was the preferred model. GS accuracy for fiber length based on a single-site model varied across sites, ranging from 0.27 to 0.77 (mean = 0.38), while that of fiber strength ranged from 0.19 to 0.58 (mean = 0.35) using randomly selected sub-populations as the training population. Prediction accuracies from the M×E model were higher than those for single-site and across-site models, with an average accuracy of 0.71 and 0.59 for fiber length and strength, respectively. The use of the M×E model could therefore identify which breeding lines have effects that are stable across environments and which ones are responsible for G×E and so reduce the amount of phenotypic screening required in cotton breeding programs to identify adaptable genotypes.

Genomic-Enabled Prediction Kernel Models with Random Intercepts for Multi-environment Trials

In this study, we compared the prediction accuracy of the main genotypic effect model (MM) without G×E interactions, the multi-environment single variance G×E deviation model (MDs), and the multi-environment environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe) where the random genetic effects of the lines are modeled with the markers (or pedigree). With the objective of further modeling the genetic residual of the lines, we incorporated the random intercepts of the lines ([Formula: see text]) and generated another three models. Each of these 6 models were fitted with a linear kernel method (Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GB) and a Gaussian Kernel (GK) method. We compared these 12 model-method combinations with another two multi-environment G×E interactions models with unstructured variance-covariances (MUC) using GB and GK kernels (4 model-method). Thus, we compared the genomic-enabled prediction accuracy of a total of 16 model-method combinations on two maize data sets with positive phenotypic correlations among environments, and on two wheat data sets with complex G×E that includes some negative and close to zero phenotypic correlations among environments. The two models (MDs and MDE with the random intercept of the lines and the GK method) were computationally efficient and gave high prediction accuracy in the two maize data sets. Regarding the more complex G×E wheat data sets, the prediction accuracy of the model-method combination with G×E, MDs and MDe, including the random intercepts of the lines with GK method had important savings in computing time as compared with the G×E interaction multi-environment models with unstructured variance-covariances but with lower genomic prediction accuracy.

Improving accuracies of genomic predictions for drought tolerance in maize by joint modeling of additive and dominance effects in multi-environment trials

Breeding for drought tolerance is a challenging task that requires costly, extensive, and precise phenotyping. Genomic selection (GS) can be used to maximize selection efficiency and the genetic gains in maize (Zea mays L.) breeding programs for drought tolerance. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of genomic selection (GS) using additive (A) and additive + dominance (AD) models to predict the performance of untested maize single-cross hybrids for drought tolerance in multi-environment trials. Phenotypic data of five drought tolerance traits were measured in 308 hybrids along eight trials under water-stressed (WS) and well-watered (WW) conditions over two years and two locations in Brazil. Hybrids' genotypes were inferred based on their parents' genotypes (inbred lines) using single-nucleotide polymorphism markers obtained via genotyping-by-sequencing. GS analyses were performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction by fitting a factor analytic (FA) multiplicative mixed model. Two cross-validation (CV) schemes were tested: CV1 and CV2. The FA framework allowed for investigating the stability of additive and dominance effects across environments, as well as the additive-by-environment and the dominance-by-environment interactions, with interesting applications for parental and hybrid selection. Results showed differences in the predictive accuracy between A and AD models, using both CV1 and CV2, for the five traits in both water conditions. For grain yield (GY) under WS and using CV1, the AD model doubled the predictive accuracy in comparison to the A model. Through CV2, GS models benefit from borrowing information of correlated trials, resulting in an increase of 40% and 9% in the predictive accuracy of GY under WS for A and AD models, respectively. These results highlight the importance of multi-environment trial analyses using GS models that incorporate additive and dominance effects for genomic predictions of GY under drought in maize single-cross hybrids.

Accuracies of univariate and multivariate genomic prediction models in African cassava

BACKGROUND

Genomic selection (GS) promises to accelerate genetic gain in plant breeding programs especially for crop species such as cassava that have long breeding cycles. Practically, to implement GS in cassava breeding, it is necessary to evaluate different GS models and to develop suitable models for an optimized breeding pipeline. In this paper, we compared (1) prediction accuracies from a single-trait (uT) and a multi-trait (MT) mixed model for a single-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 1), and (2) accuracies from a compound symmetric multi-environment model (uE) parameterized as a univariate multi-kernel model to a multivariate (ME) multi-environment mixed model that accounts for genotype-by-environment interaction for multi-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 2). For these analyses, we used 16 years of public cassava breeding data for six target cassava traits and a fivefold cross-validation scheme with 10-repeat cycles to assess model prediction accuracies.

RESULTS

In Scenario 1, the MT models had higher prediction accuracies than the uT models for all traits and locations analyzed, which amounted to on average a 40% improved prediction accuracy. For Scenario 2, we observed that the ME model had on average (across all locations and traits) a 12% improved prediction accuracy compared to the uE model.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend the use of multivariate mixed models (MT and ME) for cassava genetic evaluation. These models may be useful for other plant species.

Genetic Architecture of Phenomic-Enabled Canopy Coverage in Glycine max

Digital imagery can help to quantify seasonal changes in desirable crop phenotypes that can be treated as quantitative traits. Because limitations in precise and functional phenotyping restrain genetic improvement in the postgenomic era, imagery-based phenomics could become the next breakthrough to accelerate genetic gains in field crops. Whereas many phenomic studies focus on exploratory analysis of spectral data without obvious interpretative value, we used field images to directly measure soybean canopy development from phenological stage V2 to R5. Over 3 years, we collected imagery using ground and aerial platforms of a large and diverse nested association panel comprising 5555 lines. Genome-wide association analysis of canopy coverage across sampling dates detected a large quantitative trait locus (QTL) on soybean (Glycine max, L. Merr.) chromosome 19. This QTL provided an increase in yield of 47.3 kg ha-1 Variance component analysis indicated that a parameter, described as average canopy coverage, is a highly heritable trait (h2 = 0.77) with a promising genetic correlation with grain yield (0.87), enabling indirect selection of yield via canopy development parameters. Our findings indicate that fast canopy coverage is an early season trait that is inexpensive to measure and has great potential for application in breeding programs focused on yield improvement. We recommend using the average canopy coverage in multiple trait schemes, especially for the early stages of the breeding pipeline (including progeny rows and preliminary yield trials), in which the large number of field plots makes collection of grain yield data challenging.

Enhancing genetic gain in the era of molecular breeding

As one of the important concepts in conventional quantitative genetics and breeding, genetic gain can be defined as the amount of increase in performance that is achieved annually through artificial selection. To develop pro ducts that meet the increasing demand of mankind, especially for food and feed, in addition to various industrial uses, breeders are challenged to enhance the potential of genetic gain continuously, at ever higher rates, while they close the gaps that remain between the yield potential in breeders' demonstration trials and the actual yield in farmers' fields. Factors affecting genetic gain include genetic variation available in breeding materials, heritability for traits of interest, selection intensity, and the time required to complete a breeding cycle. Genetic gain can be improved through enhancing the potential and closing the gaps, which has been evolving and complemented with modern breeding techniques and platforms, mainly driven by molecular and genomic tools, combined with improved agronomic practice. Several key strategies are reviewed in this article. Favorable genetic variation can be unlocked and created through molecular and genomic approaches including mutation, gene mapping and discovery, and transgene and genome editing. Estimation of heritability can be improved by refining field experiments through well-controlled and precisely assayed environmental factors or envirotyping, particularly for understanding and controlling spatial heterogeneity at the field level. Selection intensity can be significantly heightened through improvements in the scale and precision of genotyping and phenotyping. The breeding cycle time can be shortened by accelerating breeding procedures through integrated breeding approaches such as marker-assisted selection and doubled haploid development. All the strategies can be integrated with other widely used conventional approaches in breeding programs to enhance genetic gain. More transdisciplinary approaches, team breeding, will be required to address the challenge of maintaining a plentiful and safe food supply for future generations. New opportunities for enhancing genetic gain, a high efficiency breeding pipeline, and broad-sense genetic gain are also discussed prospectively.