Epistasis and the Dynamics of Reversion in Molecular Evolution

Avian influenza A H5N1 hemagglutinin protein models have distinct structural patterns re-occurring across the 1959-2023 strains

Influenza A H5N1 hemagglutinin (HA) plays a crucial role in viral pathogenesis and changes in the HA receptor binding domain (RBD) have been attributed to alterations in viral pathogenesis. Mutations often occur within the HA which in-turn results in HA structural changes that consequently contribute to protein evolution. However, the possible occurrence of mutations that results to reversion of the HA protein (going back to an ancestral protein conformation) which in-turn creates distinct HA structural patterns across the 1959-2023 H5N1 viral evolution has never been investigated. Here, we generated and verified the quality of the HA models, identified similar HA structural patterns, and elucidated the possible variations in HA RBD structural dynamics. Our results show that there are 7 distinct structural patterns occurring among the 1959-2023 H5N1 HA models which suggests that reversion of the HA protein putatively occurs during viral evolution. Similarly, we found that the HA RBD structural dynamics vary among the 7 distinct structural patterns possibly affecting viral pathogenesis.

Kinetic coevolutionary models predict the temporal emergence of HIV-1 resistance mutations under drug selection pressure

Drug resistance in HIV type 1 (HIV-1) is a pervasive problem that affects the lives of millions of people worldwide. Although records of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) have been extensively tabulated within public repositories, our understanding of the evolutionary kinetics of DRMs and how they evolve together remains limited. Epistasis, the interaction between a DRM and other residues in HIV-1 protein sequences, is key to the temporal evolution of drug resistance. We use a Potts sequence-covariation statistical-energy model of HIV-1 protein fitness under drug selection pressure, which captures epistatic interactions between all positions, combined with kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations of sequence evolutionary trajectories, to explore the acquisition of DRMs as they arise in an ensemble of drug-naive patient protein sequences. We follow the time course of 52 DRMs in the enzymes protease, RT, and integrase, the primary targets of antiretroviral therapy. The rates at which DRMs emerge are highly correlated with their observed acquisition rates reported in the literature when drug pressure is applied. This result highlights the central role of epistasis in determining the kinetics governing DRM emergence. Whereas rapidly acquired DRMs begin to accumulate as soon as drug pressure is applied, slowly acquired DRMs are contingent on accessory mutations that appear only after prolonged drug pressure. We provide a foundation for using computational methods to determine the temporal evolution of drug resistance using Potts statistical potentials, which can be used to gain mechanistic insights into drug resistance pathways in HIV-1 and other infectious agents.

Contingency and Entrenchment of Drug-Resistance Mutations in HIV Viral Proteins

The ability of HIV-1 to rapidly mutate leads to antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure among infected patients. Drug-resistance mutations (DRMs), which cause a fitness penalty to intrinsic viral fitness, are compensated by accessory mutations with favorable epistatic interactions which cause an evolutionary trapping effect, but the kinetics of this overall process has not been well characterized. Here, using a Potts Hamiltonian model describing epistasis combined with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of evolutionary trajectories, we explore how epistasis modulates the evolutionary dynamics of HIV DRMs. We show how the occurrence of a drug-resistance mutation is contingent on favorable epistatic interactions with many other residues of the sequence background and that subsequent mutations entrench DRMs. We measure the time-autocorrelation of fluctuations in the likelihood of DRMs due to epistatic coupling with the sequence background, which reveals the presence of two evolutionary processes controlling DRM kinetics with two distinct time scales. Further analysis of waiting times for the evolutionary trapping effect to reverse reveals that the sequences which entrench (trap) a DRM are responsible for the slower time scale. We also quantify the overall strength of epistatic effects on the evolutionary kinetics for different mutations and show these are much larger for DRM positions than polymorphic positions, and we also show that trapping of a DRM is often caused by the collective effect of many accessory mutations, rather than a few strongly coupled ones, suggesting the importance of multiresidue sequence variations in HIV evolution. The analysis presented here provides a framework to explore the kinetic pathways through which viral proteins like HIV evolve under drug-selection pressure.

Historical contingency drives compensatory evolution and rare reversal of phage resistance

Bacteria and lytic viruses (phages) engage in highly dynamic coevolutionary interactions over time, yet we have little idea of how transient selection by phages might shape the future evolutionary trajectories of their host populations. To explore this question, we generated genetically diverse phage-resistant mutants of the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae. We subjected the panel of mutants to prolonged experimental evolution in the absence of phages. Some populations re-evolved phage sensitivity, whereas others acquired compensatory mutations that reduced the costs of resistance without altering resistance levels. To ask whether these outcomes were driven by the initial genetic mechanisms of resistance, we next evolved independent replicates of each individual mutant in the absence of phages. We found a strong signature of historical contingency: some mutations were highly reversible across replicate populations, whereas others were highly entrenched. Through whole-genome sequencing of bacteria over time, we also found that populations with the same resistance gene acquired more parallel sets of mutations than populations with different resistance genes, suggesting that compensatory adaptation is also contingent on how resistance initially evolved. Our study identifies an evolutionary ratchet in bacteria–phage coevolution and may explain previous observations that resistance persists over time in some bacterial populations but is lost in others. We add to a growing body of work describing the key role of phages in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of their host communities. Beyond this specific trait, our study provides a new insight into the genetic architecture of historical contingency, a crucial component of interpreting and predicting evolution.

Shifts in amino acid preferences as proteins evolve: A synthesis of experimental and theoretical work

Amino acid preferences vary across sites and time. While variation across sites is widely accepted, the extent and frequency of temporal shifts are contentious. Our understanding of the drivers of amino acid preference change is incomplete: To what extent are temporal shifts driven by adaptive versus nonadaptive evolutionary processes? We review phenomena that cause preferences to vary (e.g., evolutionary Stokes shift, contingency, and entrenchment) and clarify how they differ. To determine the extent and prevalence of shifted preferences, we review experimental and theoretical studies. Analyses of natural sequence alignments often detect decreases in homoplasy (convergence and reversions) rates, and variation in replacement rates with time-signals that are consistent with temporally changing preferences. While approaches inferring shifts in preferences from patterns in natural alignments are valuable, they are indirect since multiple mechanisms (both adaptive and nonadaptive) could lead to the observed signal. Alternatively, site-directed mutagenesis experiments allow for a more direct assessment of shifted preferences. They corroborate evidence from multiple sequence alignments, revealing that the preference for an amino acid at a site varies depending on the background sequence. However, shifts in preferences are usually minor in magnitude and sites with significantly shifted preferences are low in frequency. The small yet consistent perturbations in preferences could, nevertheless, jeopardize the accuracy of inference procedures, which assume constant preferences. We conclude by discussing if and how such shifts in preferences might influence widely used time-homogenous inference procedures and potential ways to mitigate such effects.

ECNet is an evolutionary context-integrated deep learning framework for protein engineering

Machine learning has been increasingly used for protein engineering. However, because the general sequence contexts they capture are not specific to the protein being engineered, the accuracy of existing machine learning algorithms is rather limited. Here, we report ECNet (evolutionary context-integrated neural network), a deep-learning algorithm that exploits evolutionary contexts to predict functional fitness for protein engineering. This algorithm integrates local evolutionary context from homologous sequences that explicitly model residue-residue epistasis for the protein of interest with the global evolutionary context that encodes rich semantic and structural features from the enormous protein sequence universe. As such, it enables accurate mapping from sequence to function and provides generalization from low-order mutants to higher-order mutants. We show that ECNet predicts the sequence-function relationship more accurately as compared to existing machine learning algorithms by using ~50 deep mutational scanning and random mutagenesis datasets. Moreover, we used ECNet to guide the engineering of TEM-1 β-lactamase and identified variants with improved ampicillin resistance with high success rates.

The evolutionary origin of the universal distribution of mutation fitness effect

An intriguing fact long defying explanation is the observation of a universal exponential distribution of beneficial mutations in fitness effect for different microorganisms. To explain this effect, we use a population model including mutation, directional selection, linkage, and genetic drift. The multiple-mutation regime of adaptation at large population sizes (traveling wave regime) is considered. We demonstrate analytically and by simulation that, regardless of the inherent distribution of mutation fitness effect across genomic sites, an exponential distribution of fitness effects emerges in the long term. This result follows from the exponential statistics of the frequency of the less-fit alleles, f, that we predict to evolve, in the long term, for both polymorphic and monomorphic sites. We map the logarithmic slope of the distribution onto the previously derived fixation probability and demonstrate that it increases linearly in time. Our results demonstrate a striking difference between the distribution of fitness effects observed experimentally for naturally occurring mutations, and the "inherent" distribution obtained in a directed-mutagenesis experiment, which can have any shape depending on the organism. Based on these results, we develop a new method to measure the fitness effect of mutations for each variable residue using DNA sequences sampled from adapting populations. This new method is not sensitive to linkage effects and does not require the one-site model assumptions.

A large-scale survey of pairwise epistasis reveals a mechanism for evolutionary expansion and specialization of PDZ domains

Deep mutational scanning (DMS) facilitates data-driven models of protein structure and function. Here, we adapted Saturated Programmable Insertion Engineering (SPINE) as a programmable DMS technique. We validate SPINE with a reference single mutant dataset in the PSD95 PDZ3 domain and then characterize most pairwise double mutants to study epistasis. We observe wide-spread proximal negative epistasis, which we attribute to mutations affecting thermodynamic stability, and strong long-range positive epistasis, which is enriched in an evolutionarily conserved and function-defining network of "sector" and clade-specifying residues. Conditional neutrality of mutations in clade-specifying residues compensates for deleterious mutations in sector positions. This suggests that epistatic interactions between these position pairs facilitated the evolutionary expansion and specialization of PDZ domains. We propose that SPINE provides easy experimental access to reveal epistasis signatures in proteins that will improve our understanding of the structural basis for protein function and adaptation.

Senescence and entrenchment in evolution of amino acid sites

Amino acid propensities at a site change in the course of protein evolution. This may happen for two reasons. Changes may be triggered by substitutions at epistatically interacting sites elsewhere in the genome. Alternatively, they may arise due to environmental changes that are external to the genome. Here, we design a framework for distinguishing between these alternatives. Using analytical modelling and simulations, we show that they cause opposite dynamics of the fitness of the allele currently occupying the site: it tends to increase with the time since its origin due to epistasis ("entrenchment"), but to decrease due to random environmental fluctuations ("senescence"). By analysing the genomes of vertebrates and insects, we show that the amino acids originating at negatively selected sites experience strong entrenchment. By contrast, the amino acids originating at positively selected sites experience senescence. We propose that senescence of the current allele is a cause of adaptive evolution.

Minimum epistasis interpolation for sequence-function relationships

Massively parallel phenotyping assays have provided unprecedented insight into how multiple mutations combine to determine biological function. While such assays can measure phenotypes for thousands to millions of genotypes in a single experiment, in practice these measurements are not exhaustive, so that there is a need for techniques to impute values for genotypes whose phenotypes have not been directly assayed. Here, we present an imputation method based on inferring the least epistatic possible sequence-function relationship compatible with the data. In particular, we infer the reconstruction where mutational effects change as little as possible across adjacent genetic backgrounds. The resulting models can capture complex higher-order genetic interactions near the data, but approach additivity where data is sparse or absent. We apply the method to high-throughput transcription factor binding assays and use it to explore a fitness landscape for protein G.

Targeted insertional mutagenesis libraries for deep domain insertion profiling

Domain recombination is a key principle in protein evolution and protein engineering, but inserting a donor domain into every position of a target protein is not easily experimentally accessible. Most contemporary domain insertion profiling approaches rely on DNA transposons, which are constrained by sequence bias. Here, we establish Saturated Programmable Insertion Engineering (SPINE), an unbiased, comprehensive, and targeted domain insertion library generation technique using oligo library synthesis and multi-step Golden Gate cloning. Through benchmarking to MuA transposon-mediated library generation on four ion channel genes, we demonstrate that SPINE-generated libraries are enriched for in-frame insertions, have drastically reduced sequence bias as well as near-complete and highly-redundant coverage. Unlike transposon-mediated domain insertion that was severely biased and sparse for some genes, SPINE generated high-quality libraries for all genes tested. Using the Inward Rectifier K⁺ channel Kir2.1, we validate the practical utility of SPINE by constructing and comparing domain insertion permissibility maps. SPINE is the first technology to enable saturated domain insertion profiling. SPINE could help explore the relationship between domain insertions and protein function, and how this relationship is shaped by evolutionary forces and can be engineered for biomedical applications.

Evolution Rapidly Optimizes Stability and Aggregation in Lattice Proteins Despite Pervasive Landscape Valleys and Mazes

The "fitness" landscapes of genetic sequences are characterized by high dimensionality and "ruggedness" due to sign epistasis. Ascending from low to high fitness on such landscapes can be difficult because adaptive trajectories get stuck at low-fitness local peaks. Compounding matters, recent theoretical arguments have proposed that extremely long, winding adaptive paths may be required to reach even local peaks: a "maze-like" landscape topography. The extent to which peaks and mazes shape the mode and tempo of evolution is poorly understood, due to empirical limitations and the abstractness of many landscape models. We explore the prevalence, scale, and evolutionary consequences of landscape mazes in a biophysically grounded computational model of protein evolution that captures the "frustration" between "stability" and aggregation propensity. Our stability-aggregation landscape exhibits extensive sign epistasis and local peaks galore. Although this frequently obstructs adaptive ascent to high fitness and virtually eliminates reproducibility of evolutionary outcomes, many adaptive paths do successfully complete the ascent from low to high fitness, with hydrophobicity a critical mediator of success. These successful paths exhibit maze-like properties on a global landscape scale, in which taking an indirect path helps to avoid low-fitness local peaks. This delicate balance of "hard but possible" adaptation could occur more broadly in other biological settings where competing interactions and frustration are important.

Epistasis and entrenchment of drug resistance in HIV-1 subtype B

The development of drug resistance in HIV is the result of primary mutations whose effects on viral fitness depend on the entire genetic background, a phenomenon called 'epistasis'. Based on protein sequences derived from drug-experienced patients in the Stanford HIV database, we use a co-evolutionary (Potts) Hamiltonian model to provide direct confirmation of epistasis involving many simultaneous mutations. Building on earlier work, we show that primary mutations leading to drug resistance can become highly favored (or entrenched) by the complex mutation patterns arising in response to drug therapy despite being disfavored in the wild-type background, and provide the first confirmation of entrenchment for all three drug-target proteins: protease, reverse transcriptase, and integrase; a comparative analysis reveals that NNRTI-induced mutations behave differently from the others. We further show that the likelihood of resistance mutations can vary widely in patient populations, and from the population average compared to specific molecular clones.

GEMME: a simple and fast global epistatic model predicting mutational effects

The systematic and accurate description of protein mutational landscapes is a question of utmost importance in biology, bioengineering, and medicine. Recent progress has been achieved by leveraging on the increasing wealth of genomic data and by modeling intersite dependencies within biological sequences. However, state-of-the-art methods remain time consuming. Here, we present Global Epistatic Model for predicting Mutational Effects (GEMME) (www.lcqb.upmc.fr/GEMME), an original and fast method that predicts mutational outcomes by explicitly modeling the evolutionary history of natural sequences. This allows accounting for all positions in a sequence when estimating the effect of a given mutation. GEMME uses only a few biologically meaningful and interpretable parameters. Assessed against 50 high- and low-throughput mutational experiments, it overall performs similarly or better than existing methods. It accurately predicts the mutational landscapes of a wide range of protein families, including viral ones and, more generally, of much conserved families. Given an input alignment, it generates the full mutational landscape of a protein in a matter of minutes. It is freely available as a package and a webserver at www.lcqb.upmc.fr/GEMME/.

Disadvantages and benefits of evolved unicellularity versus multicellularity in budding yeast

Multicellular organisms appeared on Earth through several independent major evolutionary transitions. Are such transitions reversible? Addressing this fundamental question entails understanding the benefits and costs of multicellularity versus unicellularity. For example, some wild yeast strains form multicellular clumps, which might be beneficial in stressful conditions, but this has been untested. Here, we show that unicellular yeast evolve from clump-forming ancestors by propagating samples from suspension after larger clumps have settled. Unicellular yeast strains differed from their clumping ancestors mainly by mutations in the AMN1 (Antagonist of Mitotic exit Network) gene. Ancestral yeast clumps were more resistant to freeze/thaw, hydrogen peroxide, and ethanol stressors than their unicellular counterparts, but they grew slower without stress. These findings suggest disadvantages and benefits to multicellularity and unicellularity that may have impacted the emergence of multicellular life forms.

Modular epistasis and the compensatory evolution of gene deletion mutants

Screens for epistatic interactions have long been used to characterize functional relationships corresponding to protein complexes, metabolic pathways, and other functional modules. Although epistasis between adaptive mutations is also common in laboratory evolution experiments, the functional basis for these interactions is less well characterized. Here, we quantify the extent to which gene function (as determined by a genome-wide screen for epistasis among deletion mutants) influences the rate and genetic basis of compensatory adaptation in a set of 37 gene deletion mutants nested within 16 functional modules. We find that functional module has predictive power: mutants with deletions in the same module tend to adapt more similarly, on average, than those with deletions in different modules. At the same time, initial fitness also plays a role: independent of the specific functional modules involved, adaptive mutations tend to be systematically more beneficial in less-fit genetic backgrounds, consistent with a general pattern of diminishing returns epistasis. We measured epistatic interactions between initial gene deletion mutations and the mutations that accumulate during compensatory adaptation and found a general trend towards positive epistasis (i.e. mutations tend to be more beneficial in the background in which they arose). In two functional modules, epistatic interactions between the initial gene deletions and the mutations in their descendant lines caused evolutionary entrenchment, indicating an intimate functional relationship. Our results suggest that genotypes with similar epistatic interactions with gene deletion mutations will also have similar epistatic interactions with adaptive mutations, meaning that genome scale maps of epistasis between gene deletion mutations can be predictive of evolutionary dynamics.

The effects of mutations often depend on the presence or absence of other mutations. This phenomenon, known as epistasis, has been used extensively to infer functional associations between genes. For example, genes that participate in the same functional module will often show a characteristic pattern of positive epistasis where the knockout of one gene will mask the deleterious effects of knockouts in the other genes. In the context of adaptation, epistasis can cause the outcomes of evolution to depend strongly on the initial genotype. Although studies have found that epistasis is common in laboratory populations, we do not know the extent to which the patterns of epistasis that reveal functional associations overlap with the patterns of epistasis that are important in evolution. Here, by comparing evolution in strains with gene deletions in different functional modules, we quantify the effect of functional epistasis on evolutionary outcomes. We find that mutants with deletions in the same module have more similar evolutionary outcomes, on average, than mutants with deletions in different modules. This suggests that screens for epistasis between gene deletion mutations will not only reveal functional interactions between those genes but may also predict evolutionary dynamics.

Long-term evolution on complex fitness landscapes when mutation is weak

Understanding evolution on complex fitness landscapes is difficult both because of the large dimensionality of sequence space and the stochasticity inherent to population-genetic processes. Here, I present an integrated suite of mathematical tools for understanding evolution on time-invariant fitness landscapes when mutations occur sufficiently rarely that the population is typically monomorphic and evolution can be modeled as a sequence of well-separated fixation events. The basic intuition behind this suite of tools is that surrounding any particular genotype lies a region of the fitness landscape that is easy to evolve to, while other pieces of the fitness landscape are difficult to evolve to (due to distance, being across a fitness valley, etc.). I propose a rigorous definition for this "dynamical neighborhood" of a genotype which captures several aspects of the distribution of waiting times to evolve from one genotype to another. The neighborhood structure of the landscape as a whole can be summarized as a matrix, and I show how this matrix can be used to approximate the expected waiting time for certain evolutionary events to occur and to provide an intuitive interpretation to existing formal results on the index of dispersion of the molecular clock.

Competitive species interactions constrain abiotic adaptation in a bacterial soil community

Studies of abiotic adaptation often consider single species in isolation, yet natural communities contain many coexisting species which could limit or promote abiotic adaptation. Here we show, using soil bacterial communities, that evolving in the presence of a competitor constrained abiotic adaptation. Specifically, Pseudomonas fluorescens evolved alone was fitter than P. fluorescens evolved alongside Pseudomonas putida, when P. putida was absent. Genome analyses indicated this was due to mutation of the acetate scavenger actP, which occurred exclusively, and almost universally, in single‐species‐evolved clones. actP disruption was associated with increased growth in soil compared with wild‐type actP, but this benefit was abolished when P. putida was present, suggesting a role for carbon scavenging transporters in species interactions, possibly through nutrient competition. Our results show that competitive species interactions can limit the evolutionary response to abiotic selection, because the fitness benefits of abiotic adaptive mutations were negated in more complex communities.

Selection for Protein Stability Enriches for Epistatic Interactions

A now classical argument for the marginal thermodynamic stability of proteins explains the distribution of observed protein stabilities as a consequence of an entropic pull in protein sequence space. In particular, most sequences that are sufficiently stable to fold will have stabilities near the folding threshold. Here, we extend this argument to consider its predictions for epistatic interactions for the effects of mutations on the free energy of folding. Although there is abundant evidence to indicate that the effects of mutations on the free energy of folding are nearly additive and conserved over evolutionary time, we show that these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that a non-additive contribution to the folding free energy is essential for observed proteins to maintain their native structure. In particular, through both simulations and analytical results, we show that even very small departures from additivity are sufficient to drive this effect.

Compensatory mutations and epistasis for protein function

Adaptive protein evolution may be facilitated by neutral amino acid mutations that confer no benefit when they first arise but which potentiate subsequent function-altering mutations via direct or indirect structural mechanisms. Theoretical and empirical results indicate that such compensatory interactions (intramolecular epistasis) can exert a strong influence on trajectories of protein evolution. For this reason, assessing the form and prevalence of intramolecular epistasis and characterizing biophysical mechanisms of compensatory interaction are important research goals at the nexus of structural biology and molecular evolution. Here I review recent insights derived from protein-engineering studies, and I describe an approach for identifying and characterizing mechanisms of epistasis that integrates experimental data on structure-function relationships with analyses of comparative sequence data.

Pervasive contingency and entrenchment in a billion years of Hsp90 evolution

Interactions among mutations within a protein have the potential to make molecular evolution contingent and irreversible, but the extent to which epistasis actually shaped historical evolutionary trajectories is unclear. To address this question, we experimentally measured how the fitness effects of historical sequence substitutions changed during the billion-year evolutionary history of the heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) ATPase domain beginning from a deep eukaryotic ancestor to modern Saccharomyces cerevisiae We found a pervasive influence of epistasis. Of 98 derived amino acid states that evolved along this lineage, about half compromise fitness when introduced into the reconstructed ancestral Hsp90. And the vast majority of ancestral states reduce fitness when introduced into the extant S. cerevisiae Hsp90. Overall, more than 75% of historical substitutions were contingent on permissive substitutions that rendered the derived state nondeleterious, became entrenched by subsequent restrictive substitutions that made the ancestral state deleterious, or both. This epistasis was primarily caused by specific interactions among sites rather than a general effect on the protein's tolerance to mutation. Our results show that epistasis continually opened and closed windows of mutational opportunity over evolutionary timescales, producing histories and biological states that reflect the transient internal constraints imposed by the protein's fleeting sequence states.

Divergent and parallel routes of biochemical adaptation in high-altitude passerine birds from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

When different species experience similar selection pressures, the probability of evolving similar adaptive solutions may be influenced by legacies of evolutionary history, such as lineage-specific changes in genetic background. Here we test for adaptive convergence in hemoglobin (Hb) function among high-altitude passerine birds that are native to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and we examine whether convergent increases in Hb-O₂ affinity have a similar molecular basis in different species. We documented that high-altitude parid and aegithalid species from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have evolved derived increases in Hb-O₂ affinity in comparison with their closest lowland relatives in East Asia. However, convergent increases in Hb-O₂ affinity and convergence in underlying functional mechanisms were seldom attributable to the same amino acid substitutions in different species. Using ancestral protein resurrection and site-directed mutagenesis, we experimentally confirmed two cases in which parallel substitutions contributed to convergent increases in Hb-O₂ affinity in codistributed high-altitude species. In one case involving the ground tit (Parus humilis) and gray-crested tit (Lophophanes dichrous), parallel amino acid replacements with affinity-enhancing effects were attributable to nonsynonymous substitutions at a CpG dinucleotide, suggesting a possible role for mutation bias in promoting recurrent changes at the same site. Overall, most altitude-related changes in Hb function were caused by divergent amino acid substitutions, and a select few were caused by parallel substitutions that produced similar phenotypic effects on the divergent genetic backgrounds of different species.

Beyond Thermodynamic Constraints: Evolutionary Sampling Generates Realistic Protein Sequence Variation

Biological evolution generates a surprising amount of site-specific variability in protein sequences. Yet, attempts at modeling this process have been only moderately successful, and current models based on protein structural metrics explain, at best, 60% of the observed variation. Surprisingly, simple measures of protein structure, such as solvent accessibility, are often better predictors of site-specific variability than more complex models employing all-atom energy functions and detailed structural modeling. We suggest here that these more complex models perform poorly because they lack consideration of the evolutionary process, which is, in part, captured by the simpler metrics. We compare protein sequences that are computationally designed to sequences that are computationally evolved using the same protein-design energy function and to homologous natural sequences. We find that, by a wide variety of metrics, evolved sequences are much more similar to natural sequences than are designed sequences. In particular, designed sequences are too conserved on the protein surface relative to natural sequences, whereas evolved sequences are not. Our results suggest that evolutionary simulation produces a realistic sampling of sequence space. By contrast, protein design-at least as currently implemented-does not. Existing energy functions seem to be sufficiently accurate to correctly describe the key thermodynamic constraints acting on protein sequences, but they need to be paired with realistic sampling schemes to generate realistic sequence alignments.

Biological information systems: Evolution as cognition-based information management

An alternative biological synthesis is presented that conceptualizes evolutionary biology as an epiphenomenon of integrated self-referential information management. Since all biological information has inherent ambiguity, the systematic assessment of information is required by living organisms to maintain self-identity and homeostatic equipoise in confrontation with environmental challenges. Through their self-referential attachment to information space, cells are the cornerstone of biological action. That individualized assessment of information space permits self-referential, self-organizing niche construction. That deployment of information and its subsequent selection enacted the dominant stable unicellular informational architectures whose biological expressions are the prokaryotic, archaeal, and eukaryotic unicellular forms. Multicellularity represents the collective appraisal of equivocal environmental information through a shared information space. This concerted action can be viewed as systematized information management to improve information quality for the maintenance of preferred homeostatic boundaries among the varied participants. When reiterated in successive scales, this same collaborative exchange of information yields macroscopic organisms as obligatory multicellular holobionts. Cognition-Based Evolution (CBE) upholds that assessment of information precedes biological action, and the deployment of information through integrative self-referential niche construction and natural cellular engineering antecedes selection. Therefore, evolutionary biology can be framed as a complex reciprocating interactome that consists of the assessment, communication, deployment and management of information by self-referential organisms at multiple scales in continuous confrontation with environmental stresses.

Inference of Epistatic Effects Leading to Entrenchment and Drug Resistance in HIV-1 Protease

Understanding the complex mutation patterns that give rise to drug resistant viral strains provides a foundation for developing more effective treatment strategies for HIV/AIDS. Multiple sequence alignments of drug-experienced HIV-1 protease sequences contain networks of many pair correlations which can be used to build a (Potts) Hamiltonian model of these mutation patterns. Using this Hamiltonian model, we translate HIV-1 protease sequence covariation data into quantitative predictions for the probability of observing specific mutation patterns which are in agreement with the observed sequence statistics. We find that the statistical energies of the Potts model are correlated with the fitness of individual proteins containing therapy-associated mutations as estimated by in vitro measurements of protein stability and viral infectivity. We show that the penalty for acquiring primary resistance mutations depends on the epistatic interactions with the sequence background. Primary mutations which lead to drug resistance can become highly advantageous (or entrenched) by the complex mutation patterns which arise in response to drug therapy despite being destabilizing in the wildtype background. Anticipating epistatic effects is important for the design of future protease inhibitor therapies.

Stability-Mediated Epistasis Restricts Accessible Mutational Pathways in the Functional Evolution of Avian Hemoglobin

If the fitness effects of amino acid mutations are conditional on genetic background, then mutations can have different effects depending on the sequential order in which they occur during evolutionary transitions in protein function. A key question concerns the fraction of possible mutational pathways connecting alternative functional states that involve transient reductions in fitness. Here we examine the functional effects of multiple amino acid substitutions that contributed to an evolutionary transition in the oxygenation properties of avian hemoglobin (Hb). The set of causative changes included mutations at intradimer interfaces of the Hb tetramer. Replacements at such sites may be especially likely to have epistatic effects on Hb function since residues at intersubunit interfaces are enmeshed in networks of salt bridges and hydrogen bonds between like and unlike subunits; mutational reconfigurations of these atomic contacts can affect allosteric transitions in quaternary structure and the propensity for tetramer-dimer dissociation. We used ancestral protein resurrection in conjunction with a combinatorial protein engineering approach to synthesize genotypes representing the complete set of mutational intermediates in all possible forward pathways that connect functionally distinct ancestral and descendent genotypes. The experiments revealed that 1/2 of all possible forward pathways included mutational intermediates with aberrant functional properties because particular combinations of mutations promoted tetramer-dimer dissociation. The subset of mutational pathways with unstable intermediates may be selectively inaccessible, representing evolutionary roads not taken. The experimental results also demonstrate how epistasis for particular functional properties of proteins may be mediated indirectly by mutational effects on quaternary structural stability.

Biophysical Models of Protein Evolution: Understanding the Patterns of Evolutionary Sequence Divergence

For decades, rates of protein evolution have been interpreted in terms of the vague concept of functional importance. Slowly evolving proteins or sites within proteins were assumed to be more functionally important and thus subject to stronger selection pressure. More recently, biophysical models of protein evolution, which combine evolutionary theory with protein biophysics, have completely revolutionized our view of the forces that shape sequence divergence. Slowly evolving proteins have been found to evolve slowly because of selection against toxic misfolding and misinteractions, linking their rate of evolution primarily to their abundance. Similarly, most slowly evolving sites in proteins are not directly involved in function, but mutating these sites has a large impact on protein structure and stability. In this article, we review the studies in the emerging field of biophysical protein evolution that have shaped our current understanding of sequence divergence patterns. We also propose future research directions to develop this nascent field.

Accelerated simulation of evolutionary trajectories in origin-fixation models

We present an accelerated algorithm to forward-simulate origin-fixation models. Our algorithm requires, on average, only about two fitness evaluations per fixed mutation, whereas traditional algorithms require, per one fixed mutation, a number of fitness evaluations of the order of the effective population size, Ne Our accelerated algorithm yields the exact same steady state as the original algorithm but produces a different order of fixed mutations. By comparing several relevant evolutionary metrics, such as the distribution of fixed selection coefficients and the probability of reversion, we find that the two algorithms behave equivalently in many respects. However, the accelerated algorithm yields less variance in fixed selection coefficients. Notably, we are able to recover the expected amount of variance by rescaling population size, and we find a linear relationship between the rescaled population size and the population size used by the original algorithm. Considering the widespread usage of origin-fixation simulations across many areas of evolutionary biology, we introduce our accelerated algorithm as a useful tool for increasing the computational complexity of fitness functions without sacrificing much in terms of accuracy of the evolutionary simulation.

Mutation effects predicted from sequence co-variation

Many high-throughput experimental technologies have been developed to assess the effects of large numbers of mutations (variation) on phenotypes. However, designing functional assays for these methods is challenging, and systematic testing of all combinations is impossible, so robust methods to predict the effects of genetic variation are needed. Most prediction methods exploit evolutionary sequence conservation but do not consider the interdependencies of residues or bases. We present EVmutation, an unsupervised statistical method for predicting the effects of mutations that explicitly captures residue dependencies between positions. We validate EVmutation by comparing its predictions with outcomes of high-throughput mutagenesis experiments and measurements of human disease mutations and show that it outperforms methods that do not account for epistasis. EVmutation can be used to assess the quantitative effects of mutations in genes of any organism. We provide pre-computed predictions for ∼7,000 human proteins at http://evmutation.org/.

Gene Tree Discordance Can Generate Patterns of Diminishing Convergence over Time

Phenotypic convergence is an exciting outcome of adaptive evolution, occurring when different species find similar solutions to the same problem. Unraveling the molecular basis of convergence provides a way to link genotype to adaptive phenotypes, but can also shed light on the extent to which molecular evolution is repeatable and predictable. Many recent genome-wide studies have uncovered a striking pattern of diminishing convergence over time, ascribing this pattern to the presence of intramolecular epistatic interactions. Here, we consider gene tree discordance as an alternative cause of changes in convergence levels over time in a primate dataset. We demonstrate that gene tree discordance can produce patterns of diminishing convergence by itself, and that controlling for discordance as a cause of apparent convergence makes the pattern disappear. We also show that synonymous substitutions, where neither selection nor epistasis should be prevalent, have the same diminishing pattern of molecular convergence in primates. Finally, we demonstrate that even in situations where biological discordance is not possible, discordance due to errors in species tree inference can drive similar patterns. Though intramolecular epistasis could in principle create a pattern of declining convergence over time, our results suggest a possible alternative explanation for this widespread pattern. These results contribute to a growing appreciation not just of the presence of gene tree discordance, but of the unpredictable effects this discordance can have on analyses of molecular evolution.