Electrocardiogram prediction of atrial fibrillation risk after stroke: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common clinical arrhythmias. This study aims to predict the risk of post-stroke AF through electrocardiographic changes in sinus rhythm.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE databases to identify relevant research articles published until August 2023. Prioritized items from systematic reviews and meta-analyses were screened, and data related to AF detection rate were extracted. A meta-analysis using a random-effects model was conducted for data synthesis and analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 32 studies involving electrocardiograms (ECG) were included, with a total analysis population of 330,284 individuals. Among them, 16,662 individuals (ECG abnormal group) developed AF, while 313,622 individuals (ECG normal group) did not. ECG patterns included terminal P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block (IAB), advanced interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation, and atrial premature complexes. Overall, 15,762 patients experienced AF during the study period (4.77%). In the ECG abnormal group, the proportion was 14.21% (2367/16,662), while in the control group (ECG normal group), the proportion was 4.27% (13,395/313,622). The pooled risk ratio for developing AF was 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.02-2.98, P < .001), with heterogeneity (I2) of 95%. The risk ratio values of alAB, P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation and atrial premature complexes were 4.12 (95% CI, 2.99-5.66), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), 2.54 (95% CI, 1.83-3.52), 1.70 (95% CI, 0.98-2.97), 2.65 (95% CI, 1.88-3.72), 3.79 (95% CI, 2.12-6.76), respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant correlation between ECG patterns and the occurrence of AF. The alAB exhibited the highest level of predictability for the occurrence of AF. These indicators support their use as screening tools to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from further examinations or empirical anticoagulation therapy following stroke.

ECG predictors of AF: A systematic review (predicting AF in ischaemic stroke-PrAFIS)

In 25% of patients presenting with embolic stroke, a cause is not determined. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a commonly identified mechanism of stroke in this population, particularly in older patients. Conventional investigations are used to detect AF, but can we predict AF in this population and generally? We performed a systematic review to identify potential predictors of AF on 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG).

METHOD

We conducted a search of EMBASE and Medline databases for prospective and retrospective cohorts, meta-analyses or case-control studies of ECG abnormalities in sinus rhythm predicting subsequent atrial fibrillation. We assessed quality of studies based on the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

We identified 44 studies based on our criteria. ECG patterns that predicted the risk of developing AF included interatrial block, P-wave terminal force lead V1, P-wave dispersion, abnormal P-wave-axis, abnormal P-wave amplitude, prolonged PR interval, left ventricular hypertrophy, QT prolongation, ST-T segment abnormalities and atrial premature beats. Furthermore, we identified that factors such as increased age, high CHADS-VASC, chronic renal disease further increase the positive-predictive value of some of these parameters. Several of these have been successfully incorporated into clinical scoring systems to predict AF.

CONCLUSION

There are several ECG abnormalities that can predict AF both independently, and with improved predictive value when combined with clinical risk factors, and if incorporated into clinical risk scores. Improved and validated predictive models could streamline selection of patients for cardiac monitoring and initiation of oral anticoagulants.

The CHA2DS2-VASC Score Predicts Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Angiography

BACKGROUND

The CHA2DS2-VASC score is used to predict the risk of thromboembolic complications in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesized that the CHA2DS2-VASC score can be used to predict mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a prospective study of 990 patients undergoing coronary angiography. The median follow-up was 2294 days. The patients were categorized into two groups according to their CHA2DS2-VASC score: group I had scores <4 and group II had scores ≥4 (527 (53.2%) and 463 (46.8%), respectively). A Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant association between the CHA2DS2-VASC score and mortality (69/527 (13.1%) vs. 179/463 (38.7%) for group I vs. group II, respectively, p < 0.0001). The association remained significant in patients with and without AF, reduced and preserved LVEF, normal and reduced kidney function, and with and without ACS (p < 0.009 to p < 0.0001 for all). In the Cox regression model, which combined the CHA2DS2-VASC score, the presence of AF, LVEF, anemia, and renal insufficiency, an elevated CHA2DS2-VASC score of ≥4 was independently associated with higher mortality (HR 2.12, CI 1.29-3.25, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA2DS2VASC score is a simple and reliable mortality predictor in patients undergoing coronary angiography and should be used for the initial screening for such patients.

Predicting risk of AF in ischaemic stroke using sinus rhythm ECG abnormalities: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify ECG changes in sinus rhythm that may be used to predict subsequent development of new AF.

METHOD

We identified prospective and retrospective cohort or case control studies evaluating ECG patterns from a 12-lead ECG in sinus rhythm taken in hospital or community predicting subsequent development of new AF. For each identified ECG predictor, we then identify absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using an aggregate level random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 609,496 patients from 22 studies. ECG patterns included P wave terminal force V1 (PTFV1), interatrial block (IAB) and advanced interatrial block (aIAB), abnormal P wave axis (aPWA), PR prolongation and atrial premature complexes (APCs). Pooled risk ratios reached significance for each of these; PTFV1 RR 1.48 (95% CI 1.04-2.10), IAB 2.54 (95% CI 1.64-3.93), aIAB 4.05 (95% CI 2.64-6.22), aPWA 1.89 (95% CI 1.25-2.85), PR prolongation 2.22 (95% CI 1.27-3.87) and APCs 3.71 (95% CI 2.23-6.16). Diabetes reduced the predictive value of PR prolongation.

CONCLUSION

APC and aIAB were most predictive of AF, while IAB, PR prolongation, PTFV1 and aPWA were also significantly associated with development of AF. These support their use in a screening tool to identify at risk cohorts who may benefit from further investigation, or following stroke, with empirical anticoagulation.

Electrocardiographic Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common pathological arrhythmia, and its complications lead to significant morbidity and mortality. However, patients with AF can often go undetected, especially if they are asymptomatic or have a low burden of paroxysms. Identification of those at high risk of AF development may help refine screening and management strategies.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched for studies looking at electrocardiographic predictors of AF from inception to August 2021.

RESULTS

A total of 115 studies were reported which examined a combination of atrial and ventricular parameters that could be electrocardiographic predictors of AF. Atrial predictors include conduction parameters, such as the PR interval, p-wave index and dispersion, and partial interatrial or advanced interatrial block, or morphological parameters, such as p-wave axis, amplitude and terminal force. Ventricular predictors include abnormalities in QRS amplitude, morphology or duration, QT interval duration, r-wave progression and ST segment, i.e., t-wave abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been significant interest in electrocardiographic prediction of AF, especially in populations at high risk of atrial AF, such as those with an embolic stroke of undetermined source. This review highlights the breadth of possible predictive parameters, and possible pathological bases for the predictive role of each parameter are proposed.

Rationale and design of the rigorous atrial analysis in advanced interatrial block (ARABIA) prospective study

BACKGROUND

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) is present in 10% of subjects ≥75 years and is associated with the risk of clinical events.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective multicenter study that will include subjects ≥75 years without exclusion criteria (indication for anticoagulation, cardiac devices, severe valve disease, systolic dysfunction, moderate or severe cognitive impairment, poor echocardiographic window, non-sinus rhythm or partial IAB, stroke, and life expectancy <2 years). A total of 356 subjects, 178 patients with advanced IAB (exposed) and 178 matched individuals with normal P-wave (non-exposed) will be included. Electrocardiogram and advanced transthoracic echocardiography will be performed. Two substudies will include magnetic resonance imaging: cardiac (86 subjects, 43 exposed, and 43 non-exposed) and brain (86 subjects, 43 exposed, and 43 non-exposed). The follow-up will be 2 years. Our main objective is to determine the association of advanced IAB, P-wave duration, and atrial imaging parameters (I] atrial global longitudinal strain, II] maximal left atrial volume index, III] left atrial ejection fraction, IV] left atrial fibrosis - % total left atrial area V] inter- and intra-atrial asynchrony/dyssynchrony) with clinical events (atrial fibrillation, stroke, cognitive impairment, and mortality). The secondary objective is to assess the association of the P-wave duration with atrial imaging parameters and of both with cerebral microemboli in magnetic resonance imaging.

CONCLUSION

Our study will provide data regarding the association of advanced IAB, P-wave duration, and atrial imaging parameters with clinical events. We will also assess the association P-wave duration-atrial imaging parameters-cerebral microemboli.

What every clinician should know about Bayés syndrome

Bayés syndrome is a new clinical entity, characterized by the association of advanced interatrial block (IAB) on surface electrocardiogram with atrial fibrillation (AF) and other atrial arrhythmias. This syndrome is associated with an increased risk of stroke, dementia, and mortality. Advanced IAB is diagnosed by the presence of a P-wave ≥ 120ms with biphasic morphology (±) in inferior leads. The cause of IAB is complete Bachmann bundle blockade, leading to retrograde depolarization of the left atrium from areas near the atrioventricular junction. The anatomic substrate of advanced IAB is fibrotic atrial cardiomyopathy. Dyssynchrony induced by advanced IAB is a trigger and maintenance mechanism of AF. This alteration of the atrial architecture produces atrial remodeling, blood stasis and hypercoagulability, triggering the thrombogenic cascade. The presence of advanced IAB, even in patients without documented atrial arrhythmias, has also been associated with AF, stroke, dementia, and mortality. However, in these patients, there is no evidence to support the use of anticoagulation. Therefore, in patients with advanced IAB, a proactive search for AF is recommended.

Advanced interatrial block and P-wave duration are associated with atrial fibrillation and stroke in older adults with heart disease: the BAYES registry

Aims

Advanced interatrial block (IAB), is an unrecognized surrogate of atrial dysfunction and a trigger of atrial dysrhythmias, mainly atrial fibrillation (AF). Our aim was to prospectively assess whether advanced IAB in sinus rhythm is associated with AF and stroke in elderly outpatients with structural heart disease, a group not previously studied.

Methods and results

Prospective observational registry that included outpatients aged ≥70 years with structural heart disease and no previous diagnosis of AF. Patients were divided into three groups: normal P-wave duration (&lt;120 ms), partial IAB (P-wave duration ≥120 ms, positive in the inferior leads), and advanced IAB [P-wave duration ≥120 ms, biphasic (plus/minus) morphology in the inferior leads]. Among 556 individuals, 223 had normal P-wave (40.1%), 196 partial IAB (35.3%), and 137 advanced IAB (24.6%). After a median follow-up of 694 days, 93 patients (16.7%) developed AF, 30 stroke (5.4%), and 34 died (6.1%). Advanced IAB was independently associated with AF –[hazard ratio (HR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7–5.1; P &lt; 0.001], stroke [HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.4–10.7; P = 0.010), and AF/stroke (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.5–4.4; P = 0.001). P-wave duration (ms) was independently associated with AF (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.07; P &lt; 0.001), AF/stroke (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06; P &lt; 0.001), and mortality (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.08; P = 0.021).

Conclusions

The presence of advanced IAB in sinus rhythm is independently associated with AF and stroke in an elderly population with structural heart disease and no previous diagnosis of AF. P-wave duration was also associated with all-cause mortality.

Beyond CHA2DS2-VASc in atrial fibrillation: the atrium and the risk of stroke

Pathology affecting the atria have a significant impact on the occurrence of arrhythmias and the risk of stroke. The causal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke has been challenged by the recent uncovering of the lack of temporal association between thrombo-embolic cerebral events and paroxysmal AF or tachycardia. General conditions, such as the one considered in the definition of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, or specific atrial pathology (also independently occurring), could predispose to cerebral embolism.

Coexistence of increased arterial stiffness and interatrial block in overweight subjects

Background

Interatrial block (IAB) is an electrical conduction delay between the right and left atrium and is associated with some cardiovascular disorders. Arterial stiffness is a useful prognostic marker for cardiovascular events. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the coexistence of increased arterial stiffness and IAB in overweight subjects.

Methods

A total of 110 overweight people were enrolled (56 subjects with IAB, and 54 age‐ and gender‐matched subjects without IAB) into the study. Surface 12‐lead standard ECGs were recorded. I.E.M. Mobil‐O‐Graph ambulatory blood pressure monitor device was used to assess the arterial stiffness.

Results

The mean age of the patients was 54.1 ± 11.5 years, and 53.6% were male. PWV and Aix were significantly higher in IAB (+) group than IAB (−) group (9.34 ± 1.5 vs. 7.86 ± 1.3, p < .001; 29.18 ± 11.2 vs. 22.75 ± 10.4, p < .001, respectively), and also, positive linear correlation was observed between arterial stiffness parameters and P‐wave duration (r = .758 for PWV; r = .682 for Aix, respectively).

Conclusion

The present study is the first to focus on evaluating the relationship between the presence of IAB and arterial stiffness in overweight subjects. If there is a coexistence of increased arterial stiffness and IAB in overweight subjects, it should be considered as requiring clinically closer follow‐up.

Second-degree interatrial block: A case series

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) (P-wave ≥120 ms and biphasic P-wave in leads II, III and aVF) is a prevalent ECG pattern frequently associated with supraventricular arrhythmias and stroke, especially in patients with structural heart disease. Intermittent IAB is a much more poorly defined electrocardiographic entity with uncertain clinical significance. In this case series, we review and analyze eight cases of second degree intermittent IAB. In six cases, there is normalization of advanced IAB after a premature supraventricular or ventricular contraction, suggesting a functional block that temporarily recovers post extra-systolic pause. Recognition of intermittent IAB (second degree) may help further characterize the prognostic and clinical implications of this ECG pattern.

Clinical Influence and Predictors of Pacing-Induced Mechanical Asynchrony in Patients with Normal Cardiac Function with Ventricular Lead Placed in Non-Apical Position

Right ventricular apical (RVA) pacing often causes left ventricular (LV) mechanical asynchrony, which is enhanced by impaired cardiac contraction and intrinsic conduction abnormality. However, data on patients with normal cardiac function and under RV non-apical (non-RVA) pacing are limited.We retrospectively investigated 97 consecutive patients with normal ejection fraction who received pacemaker implantation for atrioventricular block with the ventricular lead placed in a non-RVA position. We defined mechanical asynchrony as discoordinate contraction between opposing regions of the LV wall evaluated by echocardiography. Asynchrony was detected in 9 (9%) patients at baseline and in 38 (39%) under non-RVA pacing (P < 0.001). Asynchrony at baseline was significantly associated with complete left bundle branch block (CLBBB) [odds ratio (OR) = 20.8, P < 0.001]. Asynchrony under non-RVA pacing was significantly associated with left anterior fascicular block (LAFB) (OR = 7.14, P < 0.001) and CLBBB (OR = 13.3, P = 0.002) at baseline. New occurrence of asynchrony was significantly associated with LAFB at baseline (OR = 5.88, P = 0.001). During a median follow-up period of 4.8 years, the incidence of device-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) was more frequent in patients who developed asynchrony than in those who did not (53.3% versus 27.5%, hazard ratio = 2.17, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-4.61, P = 0.03).In patients with normal cardiac function, LAFB at baseline was significantly associated with new occurrence of mechanical asynchrony under non-RVA pacing. Abnormal contraction had a significant influence on the incidence of device-detected AF.

Association Between CHADS2 Score and the Development of Interatrial Block

Interatrial block (IAB) is associated with a multitude of medical conditions. The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate whether CHADS₂ (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke) score is positively associated with the development of IAB. A total of 1072 patients (men, 555; women, 517; mean age, 61 ± 14 years) were included in the study. P-wave duration was measured manually using a caliper. IAB was defined as a P-wave duration of ≥ 120 ms on a 12-lead electrocardiogram. CHADS₂ scores were calculated retrospectively. Among the 1072 patients, the prevalence of IAB was 36.1% (387/1072). In multivariate analysis, increased CHADS₂ score (odds ratio [OR], 1.810; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.577-2.077; P < 0.001), coronary artery disease (OR, 1.536; 95% CI, 1.065-2.216; P = 0.022), and increased left atrial diameter (OR, 1.039; 95% CI, 1.008-1.071; P = 0.013) were independently associated with IAB. The percentages of patients with IAB among those with a CHADS₂ score of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 were 20.6%, 33.0%, 45.0%, 55.9%, 61.9%, 77.8%, and 100%, respectively (P < 0.001). There was a greater percentage of patients with a CHADS₂ score of ≥ 2 with IAB compared with a CHADS₂ score of < 2 (26.5% vsrsus 52.0%; P < 0.001). In receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis, CHADS₂ score (area under the curve, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.636-0.704; P < 0.001) was predictive of IAB. In conclusion, CHADS₂ score was significantly associated with the development of IAB in this study population.

Second-degree interatrial block: Brief review and concept

The advanced interatrial block (A-IAB) (P ≥ 120 ms plus ± pattern in II, III and aVF) corresponds at atrial level, to right or left advanced bundle branch block at ventricular level, and it is well known that these patterns may be seen transiently in relation to taquicardia or bradycardia (tachycardia or bradycardia dependent right or left bundle branch block). We present for the first time, the same phenomenon at atrial level. In one case, the A-IAB appears in relation to tachycardization and in the other disappears during a pause induced by ventricular premature complex.

Predictive value of unshielded magnetocardiographic mapping to differentiate atrial fibrillation patients from healthy subjects

BACKGROUND

P-wave duration, its dispersion and signal-averaged ECG, are currently used markers of vulnerability to atrial fibrillation (AF). However, since tangential atrial currents are better detectable at the body surface as magnetic than electric signals, we investigated the accuracy of magnetocardiographic mapping (MCG), recorded in unshielded clinical environments, as predictor of AF occurrence.

METHODS

MCG recordings, in sinus rhythm (SR), of 71 AF patients and 75 controls were retrospectively analyzed. Beside electric and magnetic P-wave and PR interval duration, two MCG P-wave subintervals, defined P-dep and P-rep, were measured, basing on the point of inversion of atrial magnetic field (MF). Eight parameters were calculated from inverse solution with "Effective Magnetic Dipole (EMD) model" and 5 from "MF Extrema" analysis. Discriminant analysis (DA) was used to assess MCG predictive accuracy to differentiate AF patients from controls.

RESULTS

All but one (P-rep) intervals were significantly longer in AF patients. At univariate analysis, three EMD parameters differed significantly: in AF patients, the dipole-angle-elevation angular speed was lower during P-dep (p < 0.05) and higher during P-rep (p < 0.001) intervals. The space-trajectory during P-rep and the angle-dynamics during P-dep were higher (p < 0.05), whereas ratio-dynamics P-dep was lower (p < 0.01), in AF. At DA, with a combination of MCG and clinical parameters, 81.5% accuracy in differentiating AF patients from controls was achieved. At Cox-regression, the angle-dynamics P-dep was an independent predictor of AF recurrences (p = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative analysis of atrial MF dynamics in SR and the solution of the inverse problem provide new sensitive markers of vulnerability to AF.

P-wave and interatrial block: New predictor for atrial high rate episodes in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices

BACKGROUND

The presence of interatrial block (IAB) is associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to determine whether P-wave duration and presence of IAB before the implantation of a cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) are associated with the presence of atrial high rate episodes (AHRE), during long-term follow-up.

METHODS

380 patients (57% men; 75 ± 10 years) were included. IAB was defined according to the International Consensus Criteria. AHRE was defined as an episode of atrial rate ≥225 beats/min with a minimum duration of 5 minutes.

RESULTS

Documented paroxysmal AF before the implantation was present in 24% of the patients; 80% had hypertension and 32% structural heart disease. Mean P-wave duration was 123 ± 23 ms, and 39% of the patients had IAB (32% partial, 7% advanced). After a mean follow-up of 18 ± 12 months, 33% of the patients presented AHRE. Patients with AHRE had a P-wave duration significantly longer (130 ± 24 ms vs 119 ± 21 ms; P < 0.001) and a greater prevalence of IAB (53% vs 32%; P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, predictors of AHRE were: IAB (odds ratio [OR] 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.3-3.4], P < 0.001) and previous paroxysmal AF (OR 2.6; 95% CI [1.5-4.3], P < 0.001). In patients without previous AF, the presence of IAB was also a significant predictor of AHRE (OR 3.1; 95% CI [1.8-5.5], P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

IAB is a strong predictor of AHRE in patients with CIED. This finding is independent of the presence of prior paroxysmal AF.

Predictive value of inter-atrial block for new onset or recurrent atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Inter-atrial block (IAB) is characterized by a delay of inter-atrial conduction and is defined electrocardiographically by a P-wave duration (PWD)>120ms. Several studies have implicated IAB in the development of new onset atrial fibrillation (AF), whereas others have reported no significant associations. Moreover, there has been no systematic evaluation of the predictive value of IAB in AF recurrence. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine whether IAB predicts new onset AF or AF recurrence.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched through 30th July 2017 for studies investigating the relationship between IAB and AF.

RESULTS

The initial search identified 260 studies, of which 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. This meta-analysis included 18,204 patients (mean age 56±13, 48% male) with a mean follow-up period of 15.1years. IAB significantly predicted new onset AF (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44 to 4.07, P=0.001; 84%). For partial IAB, the risk of new onset AF did not reach statistical significance (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 0.85 to 2.34; P=0.18; I²=13%). Contrastingly, advanced IAB was a significant predictor of new onset AF with a pooled HR of 2.58 (95% CI: 1.35 to 4.96; P<0.01; I²=67%). IAB also predicted AF recurrence after ablation (HR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.35 to 4.96; P<0.01; I²=67%).

CONCLUSIONS

IAB is a significant predictor of both new onset AF and AF recurrence.

Incidence rates, correlates, and prognosis of electrocardiographic P-wave abnormalities - a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Scant data exist on incidence rates, correlates, and prognosis of electrocardiographic P-wave abnormalities in the general population.

METHODS

We recorded ECG and measured conventional cardiovascular risk factors in 5667 Finns who were followed up for incident atrial fibrillation (AF). We obtained repeat ECGs from 3089 individuals 11years later.

RESULTS

The incidence rates of prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P terminal force (PTF), left P-wave axis deviation, and right P-wave axis deviation were 16.0%, 7.4%, 3.4%, and 2.2%, respectively. Older age and higher BMI were associated with incident prolonged P-wave duration and abnormal PTF (P≤0.01). Higher blood pressure was associated with incident prolonged P-wave duration and right P-wave axis deviation (P≤0.01). During follow-up, only prolonged P-wave duration predicted AF (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.38; P=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Modifiable risk factors associate with P-wave abnormalities that are common and may represent intermediate steps of atrial cardiomyopathy on a pathway leading to AF.

Anticoagulation in patients at high risk of stroke without documented atrial fibrillation. Time for a paradigm shift?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is currently considered a risk factor for stroke. Depending on the severity of clinical factors (risk scores) a recommendation for full anticoagulation is made. Although AF is most certainly a risk factor for ischemic stroke, it is not necessarily the direct cause of it. The causality of association between AF and ischemic stroke is questioned by the reported lack of temporal relation between stroke events and AF paroxysms (or atrial high-rate episodes detected by devices). In different studies, only 2% of patients had subclinical AF > 6 minutes in duration at the time of stroke or systemic embolism. Is it time to consider AF only one more factor of endothelial disarray rather than the main contributor to stroke? In this "opinion paper" we propose to consider not only clinical variables predicting AF/stroke but also electrocardiographic markers of atrial fibrosis, as we postulate this as a strong indicator of risk of AF/stroke. We ask if it is time to change the paradigm and to consider, in some special situations, to protect patients (preventing stroke) who have no evidence of AF.