The general pediatrician: projecting future workforce supply and requirements

International Medical Graduates in the Pediatric Workforce in the United States

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To describe the supply, distribution, and characteristics of international medical graduates (IMGs) in pediatrics who provide patient care in the United States.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study, combining data from the 2019 Physician Masterfile of the American Medical Association and the Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates database.

RESULTS

In total, 92 806 pediatric physicians were identified, comprising 9.4% of the entire US physician workforce. Over half are general pediatricians. IMGs account for 23.2% of all general pediatricians and pediatric subspecialists. Of all IMGs in pediatrics, 22.1% or 4775 are US citizens who obtained their medical degree outside the United States or Canada, and 15.4% (3246) attended medical school in the Caribbean. Fifteen non-US medical schools account for 29.9% of IMGs currently in active practice in pediatrics in the United States. IMGs are less likely to work in group practice or hospital-based practice and are more likely to be employed in solo practice (compared with US medical school graduates).

CONCLUSIONS

With this study, we provide an overview of the pediatric workforce, quantifying the contribution of IMGs. Many IMGs are US citizens who attend medical school abroad and return to the United States for postgraduate training. Several factors, including the number of residency training positions, could affect future numbers of IMGs entering the United States. Longitudinal studies are needed to better understand the implications that workforce composition and distribution may have for the care of pediatric patients.

The Pediatric Anesthesiology Workforce: Projecting Supply and Trends 2015-2035

BACKGROUND

A workforce analysis was conducted to predict whether the projected future supply of pediatric anesthesiologists is balanced with the requirements of the inpatient pediatric population. The specific aims of our analysis were to (1) project the number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the future workforce; (2) project pediatric anesthesiologist-to-pediatric population ratios (0-17 years); (3) project the mean number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist; and (4) evaluate the effect of alternative projections of individual variables on the model projections through 2035.

METHODS

The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists is determined by the current supply, additions to the workforce, and departures from the workforce. We previously compiled a database of US pediatric anesthesiologists in the base year of 2015. The historical linear growth rate for pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions was determined using the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Data Resource Books from 2002 to 2016. The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the workforce was projected given growth of pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions at the historical linear growth rate, modeling that 75% of graduating fellows remain in the pediatric anesthesiology workforce, and anesthesiologists retire at the current mean retirement age of 64 years old. The baseline model projections were accompanied by age- and gender-adjusted anesthesiologist supply, and sensitivity analyses of potential variations in fellowship position growth, retirement, pediatric population, inpatient surgery, and market share to evaluate the effect of each model variable on the baseline model. The projected ratio of pediatric anesthesiologists to pediatric population was determined using the 2012 US Census pediatric population projections. The projected number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist was determined using the Kids' Inpatient Database historical data to project the future number of inpatient procedures (including out of operating room procedures).

RESULTS

In 2015, there were 5.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±standard deviation [SD]) of 262 ±8 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist. If historical trends continue, there will be an estimated 7.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 193 ±6 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035. If pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions plateau at 2015 levels, there will be an estimated 5.7 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 248 ±7 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035.

CONCLUSIONS

If historical trends continue, the growth in pediatric anesthesiologist supply may exceed the growth in both the pediatric population and inpatient procedures in the 20-year period from 2015 to 2035.

Demand-based models and market failure in health care: projecting shortages and surpluses in doctors and nurses

Models for projecting the demand for and supply of health care workers are generally based on objectives of meeting demands for health care and assumptions of status quo in all but the demographic characteristics of populations. These models fail to recognise that public intervention in health care systems arises from market failure in health care and the absence of an independent demand for health care. Hence projections of demand perpetuate inefficiencies in the form of overutilisation of services on the one hand and unmet needs for care on the other. In this paper the problems with basing workforce policy on projected demand are identified and the consequences for health care system sustainability explored. Integrated needs-based models are offered as alternative approaches that relate directly to the goals of publicly funded health care systems and represent an important element of promoting sustainability in those systems.

Will the Need-Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak

Basu and Pak (2014) argue that need-based workforce planning models would not maximize social welfare, and use of need-based models would result in inefficiency. They propose that planning be based on service utilization to incorporate preferences or other socioeconomic factors. We show that the analysis is based on inappropriate considerations of the nature of healthcare demand, a misrepresentation of need-based approaches and misunderstanding publicly funded healthcare system objectives. We explain how current levels of utilization emerge from workload and income interests of providers that underlie utilization-based models and are incompatible with public goals of maximizing health gains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Current Workforce of General Pediatricians in the United States

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

A near vacuum exists for credible information regarding specialty-specific demography, including gender, years since training completion, current employer, academic affiliation, and hours worked in specific tasks. Understanding the current status and changes to the medical workforce and its work patterns is essential to assessing whether the supply and distribution meets the needs of patients, institutions, society, and educational programs.

METHODS

A self-administered electronic survey sent to all pediatricians at the time of their enrollment in the Maintenance of Certification program in 2013-2014. The survey focused on exploring trends associated with career choice, career paths, time spent in professional activities, and current practice characteristics. Logistic regression and χ(2) analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The response rate was 87.2% (N = 15 351). Of those who completed the survey, 9253 (64%) self-identified as general pediatricians. An increased likelihood of working part-time was seen among women (odds ratio [OR]: 12.21), those without an academic appointment (OR: 1.32), and those not working in a private/independent practice (OR: 1.15). Overall, 89% (n = 8214) of respondents stated that their current allocation of professional time was approximately what they wanted. Those more likely to be involved in quality improvement in the past year did not work in independent/private practices (OR: 1.78) and worked full-time (OR: 1.16).

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the current nature of the pediatric workforce is a first step in providing data to guide future workforce planning and the training experiences required to maintain and shape the workforce to meet the current and future needs of children.

Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning

Health care decision makers are required to make planning decisions over a medium to long term planning horizon. Whilst population ageing is an important consideration for planners, age-stratified demographic models may produce misleading estimates of future resource requirements if the actual relationship between age and health is not fixed. We present a methodology which tests whether the assumption of a fixed age-health relationship is valid and estimate the magnitude of planning errors using a long time-series of measures of chronic health and service utilisation (N = 2419) taken from the Great British General Household Survey (1980-2008). We find that age-only models contain significant omitted variable bias, and that the relationship between age and health varies significantly across birth cohorts. Chronic sickness has fallen across birth cohorts born between 1890 and 2008, particularly before birth year 1930. Generational health improvements have mitigated the effects of population ageing, meaning that the population rate of sickness fell between 1980 and 2008. Planning based only on age leads to overestimation of the population level of health care need if successive cohorts are becoming healthier. Many alternative approaches exist which allow planners to relax the assumption of a fixed relationship between age and health.

Implementation of a parental tobacco control intervention in pediatric practice

OBJECTIVE

To test whether routine pediatric outpatient practice can be transformed to assist parents in quitting smoking.

METHODS

Cluster RCT of 20 pediatric practices in 16 states that received either CEASE intervention or usual care. The intervention gave practices training and materials to change their care delivery systems to provide evidence-based assistance to parents who smoke. This assistance included motivational messaging; proactive referral to quitlines; and pharmacologic treatment of tobacco dependence. The primary outcome, assessed at an exit interview after an office visit,was provision of meaningful tobacco control assistance, defined as counseling beyond simple advice (discussing various strategies to quit smoking), prescription of medication, or referral to the state quitline, at that office visit.

RESULTS

Among 18 607 parents screened after their child’s office visit between June 2009 and March 2011, 3228 were eligible smokers and 1980 enrolled (999 in 10 intervention practices and 981 in 10 control practices). Practices’ mean rate of delivering meaningful assistance for parental cigarette smoking was 42.5% (range 34%–66%) in the intervention group and 3.5% (range 0%–8%) in the control group (P < .0001).Rates of enrollment in the quitline (10% vs 0%); provision of smoking cessation medication (12% vs 0%); and counseling for smoking cessation(24% vs 2%) were all higher in the intervention group compared with the control group (P < .0001 for each).

CONCLUSIONS

A system-level intervention implemented in 20 outpatient pediatric practices led to 12-fold higher rates of delivering tobacco control assistance to parents in the context of the pediatric office visit.

Not enough doctors or not enough needs? Refocusing health workforce planning from providers and services to populations and needs

The importance of allocating services in accordance with population needs is well-established. Needs-based approaches to geographical resource allocation were established in the National Health Service in the UK in the 1970s, but the role of population needs has not extended to planning for the quantity and mix of health care services or for the providers required to deliver these services. We present a framework that integrates health service and workforce planning focused on responding to population needs. Using data from the General Household Survey for England over the period 1985-2006, we illustrate trends in health needs and service use per capita. Despite needs per capita falling, service use has increased. Rates of increase in service use are greater among those with less needs illustrating that, in the absence of appropriate planning methods, increases in service use may result from supplier influence rather than policy decisions.

Pediatric primary care services in Manitoba: is the health of the next generation of children at risk?

OBJECTIVES

Physician resource planning is an important part of health policy, but to date there are no studies measuring the primary care service needs of a particular population. The aim of this study was to project the expected provision of physician services for the pediatric population of one Canadian province for 2020.

METHODS

A novel standardized measure of physician service provision, the equivalent services measure, was developed using mathematical modeling. Population projections and past use of services were used to calculate the projected service needs for the pediatric population of Manitoba.

RESULTS

Despite projecting a small increase in the pediatric population (2.8%), our model predicted a decrease of 13.4% in the services that would be provided.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study indicate that the health of future generations of children may be at risk. Further research is needed to determine the effect of the reduction in pediatric service provision on the health of the pediatric population.

Parent and child usual source of care and children's receipt of health care services

PURPOSE In the United States, children who have a usual source of care (USC) have better access to health care than those who do not, but little is known about how parental USC affects children's access. We examined the association between child and parent USC patterns and children's access to health care services. METHODS We undertook a secondary analysis of nationally representative, cross-sectional data from children participating in the 2002-2007 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (n = 56,302). We assessed 10 outcome measures: insurance coverage gaps, no doctor visits in the past year, less than yearly dental visits, unmet medical and prescription needs, delayed care, problems getting care, and unmet preventive counseling needs regarding healthy eating, regular exercise, car safety devices, and bicycle helmets. RESULTS Among children, 78.6% had a USC and at least 1 parent with a USC, whereas 12.4% had a USC but no parent USC. Children with a USC but no parent USC had a higher likelihood of several unmet needs, including an insurance coverage gap (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-1.47), an unmet medical or prescription need (aRR 1.70; 95% CI 1.09-2.65), and no yearly dental visits (aRR 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18), compared with children with a USC whose parent(s) had a USC. CONCLUSIONS Among children with a USC, having no parent USC was associated with a higher likelihood of reporting unmet needs when compared with children whose parent(s) had a USC. Policy reforms should ensure access to a USC for all family members.

Geographic maldistribution of primary care for children

OBJECTIVES

This study examines growth in the primary care physician workforce for children and examines the geographic distribution of the workforce.

METHODS

National data were used to calculate the local per-capita supply of clinically active general pediatricians and family physicians, measured at the level of primary care service areas.

RESULTS

Between 1996 and 2006, the general pediatrician and family physician workforces expanded by 51% and 35%, respectively, whereas the child population increased by only 9%. The 2006 per-capita supply varied by >600% across local primary care markets. Nearly 15 million children (20% of the US child population) lived in local markets with <710 children per child physician (average of 141 child physicians per 100 000 children), whereas another 15 million lived in areas with >4400 children per child physician (average of 22 child physicians per 100 000 children). In addition, almost 1 million children lived in areas with no local child physician. Nearly all 50 states had evidence of similar extremes of physician maldistribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Undirected growth of the aggregate child physician workforce has resulted in profound maldistribution of physician resources. Accountability for public funding of physician training should include efforts to develop, to use, and to evaluate policies aimed at reducing disparities in geographic access to primary care physicians for children.

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

BACKGROUND

Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities.

METHODS

We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method.

RESULTS

In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

Which pediatricians are providing care to America's children? An update on the trends and changes during the past 26 years

OBJECTIVE

To determine the current proportion of pediatric primary care and specialty visits being conducted by pediatricians versus other providers.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data from 1980-2006 National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys (NAMCS) to examine trends in office visits by patients 0 to 17 years of age. During our years of interest, the total number of visits in NAMCS by children ranged from 2597 to 9220 per year.

RESULTS

Overall, the percentage of all nonsurgical physician office visits for children 0 to 17 years of age made to general pediatricians increased from 61% in 1996 to 71% in 2006 and those to nonpediatric generalists fell from 28% to 22%. The greatest changes between 2000 and 2006 occurred in the adolescent age group where the proportion of visits to general pediatricians increased from 38% to 53%.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatricians continue to provide most primary care visits for children in the United States. For the first time, pediatricians now provide most visits for adolescents.

Primary care physician supply and children's health care use, access, and outcomes: findings from Canada

OBJECTIVES

To describe the relationship of primary care physician (PCP) supply for children and measures of health care access, use, and outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, cross-sectional study of all Ontario children from 2003 to 2005. We used health administrative data to calculate county-level supply (full-time equivalents [FTEs]) of PCPs. We modeled the relationship of supply to (1) recommended primary care visits, (2) emergency department (ED) use, and (3) ambulatory care-sensitive condition admissions and adjusted for neighborhood income. We used population-based surveys to describe access.

RESULTS

The county-level PCP supply ranged from 1720 to 4720 children per FTE. Of the children, 45.4% live in the highest-supply areas (<2000 children per FTE) and 8% in the lowest-supply areas (>3000 children per FTE). Compared with high-supply counties, the lowest had significantly lower rates of primary care visits (2716 vs 7490 per 1000) and higher proportions of newborns without early follow-care (58.2% vs 14.5%). Low-supply areas had higher rates of ED visits (440 vs 179 per 1000) and admissions. A stepwise gradient existed for every decrease in supply for most measures. Self-reported access barriers were most evident in areas with >3500 children per FTE (32.8% without a physician).

CONCLUSIONS

Under universal insurance there are differences in access to, and outcomes of, primary care related to local physician supply after controlling for neighborhood income. The most pronounced effect is on primary and ED care use, but there are implications for acute and chronic disease control. Physician distribution is a critical issue to address in policies to improve access to care.

Health human resources planning and the production of health: development of an extended analytical framework for needs-based health human resources planning

Health human resources planning is generally based on estimating the effects of demographic change on the supply of and requirements for healthcare services. In this article, we develop and apply an extended analytical framework that incorporates explicitly population health needs, levels of service to respond to health needs, and provider productivity as additional variables in determining the future requirements for the levels and mix of healthcare providers. Because the model derives requirements for providers directly from the requirements for services, it can be applied to a wide range of different provider types and practice structures including the public health workforce. By identifying the separate determinants of provider requirements, the analytical framework avoids the "illusions of necessity" that have generated continuous increases in provider requirements. Moreover, the framework enables policy makers to evaluate the basis of, and justification for, increases in the numbers of provider and increases in education and training programs as a method of increasing supply. A broad range of policy instruments is identified for responding to gaps between estimated future requirements for care and the estimated future capacity of the healthcare workforce.

Shortage of pediatricians in Japan: a longitudinal analysis using physicians' survey data

BACKGROUND

Currently, there is a shortage of hospital pediatricians in Japan. In the present study, using data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists, and Pharmacists in Japan, we analyzed the dynamics and distribution of pediatricians, using a time series approach.

METHODS

The total number of pediatricians, the ratios of hospital-working and female pediatricians, their mean age and geographic distribution in 1974, 1984, 1994, and 2004 were determined. The dynamics of pediatricians were analyzed by identifying the annual number of physicians participating in and withdrawing from pediatrics, and by following up withdrawal rates from pediatrics and movement rates from hospitals. The withdrawal rates of male and female pediatricians registered in 1992, 1994, and 1996 were also analyzed.

RESULTS

The number of pediatricians per 10,000 children increased from 1.9 to 7.4 between 1974 and 2004. The percentage of women among pediatricians was significantly higher than that of women among all physicians in 2004 (P < 0.01). The numbers of physicians who withdrew from pediatrics increased from the periods 1985-1994 to 1995-2004. Younger pediatricians tended to leave pediatrics earlier than elder pediatricians. There were no differences in the withdrawal rates of pediatricians between men and women registered in 1992, 1994, and 1996.

CONCLUSIONS

It is anticipated that the number of pediatricians in Japan will decrease in the near future unless practical strategies are implemented to improve the early withdrawal of younger pediatricians and the current working conditions of female pediatricians.

Do children in rural areas still have different access to health care? Results from a statewide survey of Oregon's food stamp population

PURPOSE

To determine if rural residence is independently associated with different access to health care services for children eligible for public health insurance.

METHODS

We conducted a mail-return survey of 10,175 families randomly selected from Oregon's food stamp population (46% rural and 54% urban). With a response rate of 31%, we used a raking ratio estimation process to weight results back to the overall food stamp population. We examined associations between rural residence and access to health care (adjusting for child's age, child's race/ethnicity, household income, parental employment, and parental and child's insurance type). A second logistic regression model controlled for child's special health care needs.

FINDINGS

Compared with urban children (reference = 1.00), rural children were more likely to have unmet medical care needs (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-2.04), problems getting dental care (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03-1.79), and at least one emergency department visit in the past year (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.10-1.81). After adjusting for special health care needs (more prevalent among rural children), there was no rural-urban difference in unmet medical needs, but physician visits were more likely among rural children. There were no statistically significant differences in unmet prescription needs, delayed urgent care, or having a usual source of care.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that access disparities between rural and urban low-income children persist, even after adjusting for health insurance. Coupled with continued expansions in children's health insurance coverage, targeted policy interventions are needed to ensure the availability of health care services for children in rural areas, especially those with special needs.

Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

BACKGROUND

Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues.

METHODS

A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed.

RESULTS

Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited.

CONCLUSION

There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to improving the usefulness of physician supply projections.

Linking process to outcome: are we training pediatricians to meet evolving health care needs?

The Residency Review and Redesign in Pediatrics (R(3)P) Project began in 2005 and will have been completed in 2009. The purpose was to conduct a comprehensive reassessment of general pediatric residency education. The project convened 3 major colloquia supplemented by numerous meetings of an R(3)P committee and by surveys of residents, subspecialty fellows, and generalist and subspecialty practitioners. A principal conclusion was that resident learning opportunities should be more flexibly directed toward the variety of career choices available to pediatricians. Another conclusion was that reasonable expectations for residency education are most likely if learning is regarded as an integrated continuum, beginning in medical school and continuing throughout a career in practice. The R(3)P Committee declined to create a list of recommendations for immediate changes in residency education; instead, it recommends that changes be based on evidence of education outcomes that are important to improving the health of children, adolescents, and young adults.

Report of colloquium I: the future of pediatric health care delivery and education--pondering imponderables to create an ideal residency in a world of critical uncertainties

Participants of the first colloquium of the Residency Review and Redesign in Pediatrics (R(3)P) Project considered possible scenarios affecting pediatric practice over the next 15 to 20 years and speculated about the knowledge and skills that pediatricians would need to care for children, adolescents, and young adults in the future. They concluded that the imponderables and complexity of that undertaking fell into the category of a "wicked problem" with no unique solutions. The specifics of the future cannot be predicted, but the themes important to thinking about the future are clear and must be incorporated into thinking about pediatric residency education.

A comparison of Canadian pediatric resident career plans in 1998 and 2006

OBJECTIVES

Studies of pediatric resident career plans and preferences help to forecast changes in the demographic profile and practice patterns of North American pediatricians, providing insights that can guide child health care and medical education policy making. With this study we aimed to compare 4 aspects of Canadian pediatric resident career plans in 1998 and 2006: (1) weekly work hours; (2) scope of practice; (3) professional activities; and (4) community size.

METHODS

Canadian pediatric residents were invited to participate in a national cross-sectional survey to explore career plans and preferences in 1998 (mailing) and 2006 (on-line).

RESULTS

Response rates were 69% in 1998 and 52% in 2006. In both survey years, the majority of respondents were female (69% and 73%, respectively). Overall, residents planned to work a similar number of weekly hours in both survey years (47.8 vs 48.8). Women planned to work significantly fewer hours than men; this gap was wider in 2006 than in 1998 (1998: 2.8 fewer hours; 2006: 7.8 fewer hours). After adjusted analysis, the association between proportion of time in primary care and study year became significant; however, time in consultant general or subspecialty pediatrics remained nonsignificantly changed. Residents planned to spend less time in clinical work in 2006 than 1998 (64.4% vs 58.1%), and more planned to work and reside in metropolitan areas (68% vs 78% of decided respondents).

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1998 and 2006, there was no overall change in the number of hours that Canadian pediatric residents planned to work, but the gender gap widened because of an increase in planned weekly work hours among men. The results also suggest that new strategies may be needed to improve future pediatrician availability in small communities by addressing barriers to nonmetropolitan practice, especially for women.

A web-based tool for designing vaccine formularies for childhood immunization in the United States

This article describes the motivation, development, and implementation of a software tool, www.vaccineselection.com, introduced to assist health care professionals and public health administrators in managing pediatric vaccine purchase decisions and making economically sound formulary choices. The tool integrates general operations research methodologies with specific local practice choices to solve for the lowest overall cost set of vaccines required to immunize a child according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule. A description of the tool's capabilities is provided. RESULTS on the use of the software tool are reported and discussed.

Will generalist physician supply meet demands of an increasing and aging population?

We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.

Many pediatric residents seek and obtain part-time positions

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to monitor the number of pediatric residents seeking part-time employment after graduation and to examine the difficulty of their job searches, compared with residents seeking full-time employment.

METHODS

As part of the American Academy of Pediatrics Graduating Resident Survey, national random samples of 500 graduating, categorical pediatrics residents were surveyed from 2003 through 2005, between May and August of each year. Responses were pooled to examine resident interest in and experience with part-time employment. Totals of 308 (62%), 307 (61%), and 281 (56%) residents completed the survey in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively. Analyses focused on residents who applied for nonfellowship jobs.

RESULTS

A total of 51% of residents applied for nonfellowship jobs. Of those who applied for such jobs, 38% reported that they applied for part-time positions and 21% actually accepted part-time positions. Residents who applied for part-time positions were more likely to report moderate or considerable job search difficulty (part-time: 36%; full-time: 25%). The average starting salary for residents who accepted part-time jobs was almost $34,000 less than that for residents working full-time (part-time: $71,615; full-time: $105,598). Residents who accepted part-time positions expected to work 15 hours less per week in practice (38 vs 23 hours) and were more likely to accept a position in the same city/area as their residency (part-time: 60%; full-time: 47%).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 4 of 10 pediatric residents seek part-time employment after graduation, and 2 of 10 accept part-time positions. Strong interest in part-time positions is likely to continue, and this important trend has implications for the pediatric workforce.

Successful use of a primary care practice-specialty collaboration in the care of an adolescent with chronic fatigue syndrome

We report on the successful collaborative care of an adolescent with chronic fatigue syndrome between a primary care pediatrician and an academic chronic fatigue syndrome specialist located in different cities. Regular telephone and e-mail communication and clearly defined patient-care roles allowed for timely management of symptoms and marked clinical improvement. We discuss ways to improve the collaboration of primary care and subspecialty physicians for patients with chronic fatigue syndrome and children with special health care needs.

Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: current status, concerns and future projections

BACKGROUND

There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees.

METHODS

Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006.

RESULTS

Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce.

CONCLUSIONS

The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the workforce and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years.

Trends in market demand for internal medicine 1999 to 2004: an analysis of physician job advertisements

BACKGROUND

The health care marketplace has changed substantially since the last assessment of demand for internal medicine physicians in 1996.

METHODS

We reviewed internal medicine employment advertisements published in 4 major medical journals between 1996 and 2004. The number of positions, specialty, and other practice characteristics (e.g., location) were collected from each advertisement.

RESULTS

Four thousand two hundred twenty-four advertisements posted 4,992 positions. Of these positions, jobs in the Northeast (31% of positions) or single specialty groups (36.8% of positions) were most common. The relative proportion of advertisements for nephrologists declined (P < .001), while the relative proportions of advertisements for critical care specialists (0.5% in 1996 to 1.7% in 2004, P = .004) and hospitalists (1.0% in 1996 to 12.1% in 2004, P < .001) increased. Advertisements for outpatient-based generalist positions (i.e., Primary Care and Internal Medicine) declined (-2.7% relative annual change, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] -4.1%, -1.2%) between 1996 and 2004, a decrease largely due to a substantial decline in advertisements noted between 1996 and 1998. However, over the entire time period, the combined proportion of advertisements for all generalists (hospitalists and outpatient-based generalists) did not change (0.5% relative annual change, 95% CI -0.8% to 2.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Since 1996, demand for the majority of medical subspecialties has remained constant while relative demand has decreased for primary care and increased for hospitalists and critical care. Increase in demand for generalist-trained hospitalists appears to have offset falling demand for outpatient generalists.

Family physicians in the child health care workforce: opportunities for collaboration in improving the health of children

Pediatric workforce studies suggest that there may be a sufficient number of pediatricians for the current and projected US child population. These analyses do not fully consider the role of family medicine in the care of children. Family physicians provide 16% to 26% of visits for children, providing a medical home for one third of the child population, but face shrinking panels of children. Family medicine's role in children's health care is more stable in rural communities, for adolescents, and for underserved populations. For these populations, in particular, family medicine's role remains important. The erosion of the proportion of visits to family medicine is likely caused by the rapid rise in the number of pediatricians relative to a declining birth rate. Between 1981 and 2004, the general pediatrician population grew at 7 times the rate of the US population, and the family physician workforce grew at nearly 5 times the rate. The number of clinicians caring for children meets or exceeds most estimates of sufficiency; however, the workforce distribution is skewed, leaving certain populations and settings underserved. More than 5 million children and adolescents live in counties with no pediatrician. Unmet need, addressing health in the context of families and communities, and tackling "millennial morbidities" represent common ground for both specialties that could lead to specific, collaborative training, research, intervention, and advocacy.

Practice patterns and potential solutions to the shortage of providers of older adult mental health services

Little is known about the contribution of advanced practice nurses (APNs) to the mental health care of older adults. This study describes mental health services to older adults by APNs compared with primary care physicians, psychiatrists, psychologists, and social workers. The study uses a retrospective, cross-sectional design with a 5% national sample of 1999 Medicare outpatient claims. Bivariate statistics and multinomial logit models were used to determine differences among these mental health providers. A small proportion of the nationally available providers (10.4%) submitted claims for mental health services rendered to older adults. APNs, psychiatrists, and primary care physicians care for a disproportionate number of rural and poor older adults with complex medical/psychiatric needs compared with psychiatrists, psychologists, and social workers. APNs seem to be an untapped resource for providing mental health services to older adults. Health policy reform is needed to remove barriers to meet mental health care needs.

Unmet need and problems accessing specialty medical and related services among children with special health care needs

OBJECTIVES

To extend what is known about parent reports of their child's need for specialty medical and related services, unmet need, and specific types of access problems among children with special health care needs (CSHCN).

METHODS

Using data from a 1998-1999 20-state survey of families of CSHCN, we examined differences in parent report of need for services by child characteristics, investigated parent report of unmet need and access problems by service area and number of services needed, and estimated the likelihood of four access problems and unmet need by child, family, and health insurance characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall, the sample children had numerous service needs, although the prevalence of need varied by service type and child characteristics. Reports of unmet need were greater for older children and for children with multiple service needs, unstable health care needs or a behavioral health condition, parents who were in poor health or had more than a high school education, and families whose insurance coverage was inconsistent or lacked a secondary plan. Reports of access problems were greatest for mental health and home health services. The two most prevalent access problems were finding a skilled provider and getting enough visits.

CONCLUSIONS

The results underscore the importance of finding new ways to link children with behavioral health problems to mental health services, implementing coordinated care and the other core dimensions of the medical home concept, increasing the number of specialty pediatricians and home health providers, and expanding coverage for a wider range of mental health services.

Comparaison des prescriptions des pédiatres et des médecins généralistes : une étude en population en Franche-Comté sur la base de données de la caisse régionale d'assurance maladie

OBJECTIVES

To compare the medical management of children by private pediatricians or by general practitioners.

POPULATION AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study analyzed information from the automated database of the Regional Health Insurance Fund for salaried workers in Franche-Comté from January 2001 through December 2002 and compared the mean rates of prescriptions in the populations seen only by general practitioners or mainly by pediatricians.

RESULTS

Analysis concerned 1 535 208 visits (office and home). Management by pediatricians was associated with 25% fewer consultations and 6% fewer hospitalizations. Pediatricians also wrote 25% fewer prescriptions for drugs, 17% fewer for laboratory tests, and 42% fewer for speech and language therapy. Children seen by pediatricians took antibiotics much less often (penicillin: -24%; cephalosporins: -74%; macrolides: -53%) as well as half as many corticoids and NSAIDs. Their vaccination coverage was more complete (31% more hepatitis B vaccines, 7% more MMR), as was prevention against rickets and cavities (twice the rate of vitamin D and fluoride prescriptions). The population followed mainly by pediatricians included 25% more children with a chronic disease.

CONCLUSION

General practitioners and pediatricians appear to differ significantly in their management of children. Other studies that can take into account such confounding factors as health status are needed to confirm these results.

The changing composition of the pediatric medical subspecialty workforce

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the composition of the pediatric subspecialty workforce in terms of the distribution of women and international medical graduates (IMGs) across pediatric medical subspecialties and to determine whether the proportions of board-certified pediatric subspecialists who are women or IMGs differ between graduation cohorts.

STUDY DESIGN

We used board certification data from the American Board of Pediatrics. Within each pediatric subspecialty, we classified physicians into 2 groups, ie, recent graduates, defined as those who completed medical school after January 1, 1987, and nonrecent graduates, who completed medical school before that date. We calculated the percentage of female physicians for each subspecialty and computed 95% confidence intervals around those estimates to identify male-dominated subspecialties. Using Pearson chi2 tests, we compared the percentages of women between the 2 graduation cohorts for each subspecialty. Similar calculations were performed for the percentage of IMGs in each subspecialty. Sensitivity analyses were performed with data from the 2002 American Medical Association Physician Masterfile.

RESULTS

For 9 of 16 pediatric medical subspecialties studied, the percentages of board-certified women were significantly greater in the recent cohort than in the nonrecent cohort. Subspecialties that remain predominantly male in the recent graduation cohort include cardiology, critical care medicine, gastroenterology, pulmonology, and sports medicine. In contrast, the percentages of board-certified IMGs were significantly lower for 6 of the 16 specialties studied; endocrinology and gastroenterology remain relatively reliant on IMGs.

CONCLUSIONS

For the majority of pediatric medical subspecialties, concerns that the predominance of women in pediatric training may negatively affect the supply of subspecialists are likely unfounded; however, a small number of procedure-based specialties, as well as sports medicine, continue to rely disproportionately on men. There do not seem to be consistent differences in the role of IMGs across the pediatric medical subspecialties between recent and nonrecent graduates, which may reflect differing tendencies to become certified.

Where do graduating pediatric residents seek practice positions?

OBJECTIVE

To profile the characteristics of areas that graduating pediatric residents target in their job searches and to explore whether residents applying to primary care markets with higher pediatrician supplies experience job-search difficulty.

STUDY DESIGN

A national random sample of 500 graduating categorical pediatric residents was surveyed. The communities that the pediatric residents targeted for jobs were linked to local-area characteristics by using Dartmouth Primary Care Service Areas (PCSAs), which are discrete markets that represent patient travel patterns for primary care services. PCSA population and providers were characterized by using data from the 2000 US Census and American Medical Association/American Osteopathic Association Physician Masterfiles.

RESULTS

A total of 308 graduating residents (62%) completed the survey. Of the respondents, 136 (44%) applied for general-practice positions. The characteristics of the PCSAs that residents applied to differed from the PCSAs without an application. Residents' first-choice areas had higher ratios of general pediatricians, had higher median household incomes, and were more likely to be urban areas. Residents applying to higher-supply areas were significantly more likely to report moderate or considerable difficulty in their job searches than were residents applying to lower-supply areas. Residents applying to medium- and higher-supply areas sent out more total applications for positions and received lower starting salaries than did residents applying to lower-supply areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Residents continue to prefer high-supply areas in their job searches, despite experiencing greater search difficulty in these areas. Current targeted incentives and market forces are unlikely to redress geographic variation in pediatrician supply.

The pediatrician workforce: current status and future prospects

The effective and efficient delivery of children's health care depends on the pediatrician workforce. The number, composition, and distribution of pediatricians necessary to deliver this care have been the subject of long-standing policy and professional debate. This technical report reviews current characteristics and recent trends in the pediatric workforce and couples the workforce to a conceptual model of improvement in children's health and well-being. Important recent changes in the workforce include (1) the growth in the number of pediatricians in relation to the child population, (2) increased numbers of female pediatricians and their attainment of majority gender status in the specialty, (3) the persistence of a large number of international medical graduates entering training programs, (4) a lack of ethnic and racial diversity in pediatricians compared with children, and (5) the persistence of marked regional variation in pediatrician supply. Supply models projecting the pediatric workforce are reviewed and generally indicate that the number of pediatricians per child will increase by 50% over the next 20 years. The differing methods of assessing workforce requirements are presented and critiqued. The report finds that the pediatric workforce is undergoing fundamental changes that will have important effects on the professional lives of pediatricians and children's health care delivery.

Estimated impact of competing policy recommendations for age of first dental visit

OBJECTIVE

To compare levels of dental utilization and untreated dental decay among children aged 1 to 3 years that are likely to occur under 2 potential guidance policies: (1) pediatricians refer all toddlers to dentists for screening (consistent with American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry and the American Dental Association recommendations; DENT), and (2) pediatricians receive training in caries risk assessment, screen toddlers, and refer at-risk children to dentists (consistent with American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations; PED).

METHODS

Using decision analysis, we estimated the impact of PED and DENT assuming alternately unlimited dental capacity for Medicaid-insured patients and fixed Medicaid dental capacity. Results With unlimited capacity, if DENT were implemented, then dental utilization is estimated to increase from 27% under the status quo to 65% and untreated decay to decrease from a mean of 0.60 surfaces to 0.52 surfaces per child. If PED were implemented, then dental utilization and untreated decay would decrease from status quo levels to an estimated 11% and 0.47 surfaces, respectively, assuming that diagnostic sensitivity and specificity both equaled 1; they would decrease to 13% and 0.53 surfaces, respectively, if sensitivity equaled 0.76 and specificity equaled 0.95. With fixed capacity, under DENT, untreated decay is estimated to increase to 0.63 surfaces because low-risk private-pay patients would crowd out at-risk Medicaid-insured children, whereas under PED, untreated decay would still be less than under the status quo.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing PED will decrease untreated decay under most plausible scenarios, whereas switching to DENT will increase the burden of disease if Medicaid dental capacity is limited.

The expanding role of the pediatrician in improving child health in the 21st century

Children in the United States increasingly are at risk for health problems that are precipitated or exacerbated by social, community, and environmental factors. Currently, pediatricians are unable to sufficiently address these health conditions without expanding their roles beyond that of providing health care to individual patients. Thus, to improve child health, physicians must work within their communities to identify the needs of the population they serve and take appropriate action to influence the private and public policies that address these needs. Healthy People 2010 establishes a well-supported framework that confronts the social and community factors that affect children's health and serves as a resource for community-minded pediatricians. In addition to Healthy People 2010, other successful initiatives have been created by pediatricians, and they must be expanded if the pediatric community is to alleviate the social, community, and environmental factors that negatively affect child health.

Practical and relevant self-report measures of patient health behaviors for primary care research

PURPOSE

With increasing evidence for the value of behavior change counseling, there is a need for health behavior measurements that can be implemented in primary care research. This article discusses criteria for and reviews self-report measures to briefly assess cigarette smoking, eating patterns, physical activity, and risky drinking across the life course. It then proposes pragmatic measures for use in practice-based research.

METHODS

Drawing from literature reviews, previous multisite studies, personal communications with experts in the field, and guidance from an expert panel, we identified self-report behavior change measures and gave priority to items that addressed Healthy People 2010 goals, as well as those that were practical (ie, shorter, and easier to score and use for intervention), were sensitive to change, and produced results that could directly inform primary care intervention.

RESULTS

Separate recommendations are described for measures for adults and for children/adolescents. We recommend a set of 22 items for adults and 16 items for adolescents to track succinctly their status on the 4 health behaviors above. Perfected measures remain elusive: newly developed measures of physical activity and eating patterns are recommended, and in general, the brief measures for adults are currently better validated than are the child measures.

CONCLUSIONS

A set of totally satisfactory practical instruments for measuring behavior change in primary care settings does not yet exist. There is sufficient progress to encourage use of and further research on the proposed items. Use of a common set of items across different interventions and projects will help to advance clinical and behavioral research in primary care settings.