Development and Validation of a Novel Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC)

Optimizing Advanced Imaging of the Pediatric Patient in the Emergency Department: Policy Statement

Advanced imaging, including ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), is an integral component to the evaluation and management of ill and injured children in the emergency department. As with any test or intervention, the benefits and potential impacts on management must be weighed against the risks to ensure that high-value care is being delivered. There are important considerations specific to the pediatric patient related to the ordering and interpretation of advanced imaging. This policy statement provides guidelines for institutions and those who care for children to optimize the use of advanced imaging in the emergency department setting and was coauthored by experts in pediatric and general emergency medicine, pediatric radiology, and pediatric surgery. The intent is to guide decision-making where children may access care.

Identification of children with a nondiagnostic ultrasound at a low appendicitis risk using a pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator

OBJECTIVES

Up to 50% of ultrasounds (USs) for suspected pediatric appendicitis are nondiagnostic. While the validated low-risk clinical pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC) score < 15% and the low-risk US with nonvisualized appendix and no periappendiceal inflammation carry relatively low appendicitis risks, the contribution of the combination of both characteristics to this risk has never been assessed. The primary objective was to determine the proportion of children with the low-risk US-low-risk pARC combination with appendicitis. We hypothesized that this proportion would be 2.5% (upper 95% CI ≤ 5%).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 448 previously healthy children 4-17 years old at a pediatric ED with suspected appendicitis, nondiagnostic US, and persistent clinical concern about appendicitis. Two investigators abstracted demographic, clinical, and imaging data. Based on published criteria, USs were classified as low-risk or high-risk. The pARC includes seven demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables and is quantified according to the published formula. The primary outcome was appendicitis, based on the histological evidence. All nonoperated patients underwent a 1-month-follow-up to exclude delayed appendicitis diagnoses.

RESULTS

Sixty of the 448 (13.4%) patients had appendicitis; 269 (60%) had low-risk US, 262 (58.4%) had low-risk pARC, and 163 (36.4%) had both characteristics. The appendicitis rates with low-risk pARC alone and low-risk US alone were 14/262 (5.4%) and 21/269 (7.8%), respectively. A total of 2/163 children (1.2%) with low-risk pARC and low-risk US had appendicitis (95% CI 0%-4.4%). Higher-risk US increased the appendicitis odds 5 (95% CI 1.54-20.55) to 11 times (95% CI 2.41-51.10) across pARC levels. The low-risk combination had sensitivity of 96.7% (95% CI 88.5%-99.6%), specificity of 41.5%, positive predictive value of 20.4%, and negative predictive value of 98.8% (95% CI 95.6%-99.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The children with low-risk pARC and low-risk US combination are unlikely to have appendicitis and can be discharged home. The presence of higher-risk US-pARC score combinations substantially increases the appendicitis risk and warrants reassessment or interval imaging.

Study of pediatric appendicitis scores and management strategies: A prospective observational feasibility study

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to investigate the feasibility of prospectively validating multiple clinical prediction scores (CPSs) for pediatric appendicitis in an Australian pediatric emergency department (ED).

METHODS

A literature search was conducted to identify potential CPSs and a single-center prospective observational feasibility study was performed between November 2022 and May 2023 to evaluate the performance of identified CPSs. Children 5-15 years presenting with acute right-sided or generalized abdominal pain and clinician suspicion of appendicitis were included. CPSs were calculated by the study team from prospectively clinician-collected data and/or review of medical records. Accuracy of CPSs were assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and proportions correctly identifiable as either low-risk or high-risk with the best performing CPS compared to clinician gestalt. Final diagnosis of appendicitis was confirmed on histopathology or by telephone/email follow-up for those discharged directly from ED.

RESULTS

Thirty CPSs were identified in the literature search and 481 patients were enrolled in the study. A total of 150 (31.2%) patients underwent appendectomy with three (2.0%) having a normal appendix on histopathology. All identified CPSs were calculable for at least 50% of the patient cohort. The pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator for pediatric EDs (pARC-ED; n = 317) was the best performing CPS with AUC 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86-0.94) and specificity 99.0% (95% CI 96.4%-99.7%) in diagnosing high-risk cases and a misclassification rate of 4.5% for low-risk cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified 30 CPSs that could be validated in a majority of patients to compare their ability to assess risk of pediatric appendicitis. The pARC-ED had the highest predictive accuracy and can potentially assist in risk stratification of children with suspected appendicitis in pediatric EDs. A multicenter study is now under way to evaluate the potential of these CPSs in a broader range of EDs to aid clinical decision making in more varied settings.

Optimizing Advanced Imaging of the Pediatric Patient in the Emergency Department: Policy Statement

Advanced imaging, including ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), is an integral component to the evaluation and management of ill and injured children in the emergency department. As with any test or intervention, the benefits and potential impacts on management must be weighed against the risks to ensure that high-value care is being delivered. There are important considerations specific to the pediatric patient related to the ordering and interpretation of advanced imaging. This policy statement provides guidelines for institutions and those who care for children to optimize the use of advanced imaging in the emergency department setting and was coauthored by experts in pediatric and general emergency medicine, pediatric radiology, and pediatric surgery. The intent is to guide decision-making where children may access care.

Optimizing Advanced Imaging of the Pediatric Patient in the Emergency Department: Policy Statement

Advanced imaging, including ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, is an integral component to the evaluation and management of ill and injured children in the emergency department. As with any test or intervention, the benefits and potential impacts on management must be weighed against the risks to ensure that high-value care is being delivered. There are important considerations specific to the pediatric patient related to the ordering and interpretation of advanced imaging. This policy statement provides guidelines for institutions and those who care for children to optimize the use of advanced imaging in the emergency department setting and was coauthored by experts in pediatric and general emergency medicine, pediatric radiology, and pediatric surgery. The intent is to guide decision-making where children may access care.

Optimizing Advanced Imaging of the Pediatric Patient in the Emergency Department: Technical Report

Advanced diagnostic imaging modalities, including ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, are key components in the evaluation and management of pediatric patients presenting to the emergency department. Advances in imaging technology have led to the availability of faster and more accurate tools to improve patient care. Notwithstanding these advances, it is important for physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners to understand the risks and limitations associated with advanced imaging in children and to limit imaging studies that are considered low value, when possible. This technical report provides a summary of imaging strategies for specific conditions where advanced imaging is commonly considered in the emergency department. As an accompaniment to the policy statement, this document provides resources and strategies to optimize advanced imaging, including clinical decision support mechanisms, teleradiology, shared decision-making, and rationale for deferred imaging for patients who will be transferred for definitive care.

Optimizing Advanced Imaging of the Pediatric Patient in the Emergency Department: Technical Report

Advanced diagnostic imaging modalities, including ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), are key components in the evaluation and management of pediatric patients presenting to the emergency department. Advances in imaging technology have led to the availability of faster and more accurate tools to improve patient care. Notwithstanding these advances, it is important for physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners to understand the risks and limitations associated with advanced imaging in children and to limit imaging studies that are considered low value, when possible. This technical report provides a summary of imaging strategies for specific conditions where advanced imaging is commonly considered in the emergency department. As an accompaniment to the policy statement, this document provides resources and strategies to optimize advanced imaging, including clinical decision support mechanisms, teleradiology, shared decision-making, and rationale for deferred imaging for patients who will be transferred for definitive care.

An Explainable and Personalized Cognitive Reasoning Model Based on Knowledge Graph: Toward Decision Making for General Practice

General practice plays a prominent role in primary health care (PHC). However, evidence has shown that the quality of PHC is still unsatisfactory, and the accuracy of clinical diagnosis and treatment must be improved in China. Decision making tools based on artificial intelligence can help general practitioners diagnose diseases, but most existing research is not sufficiently scalable and explainable. An explainable and personalized cognitive reasoning model based on knowledge graph (CRKG) proposed in this article can provide personalized diagnosis, perform decision making in general practice, and simulate the mode of thinking of human beings utilizing patients' electronic health records (EHRs) and knowledge graph. Taking abdominal diseases as the application point, an abdominal disease knowledge graph is first constructed in a semiautomated manner. Then, the CRKG designed referring to dual process theory in cognitive science involves the update strategy of global graph representations and reasoning on a personal cognitive graph by adopting the idea of graph neural networks and attention mechanisms. For the diagnosis of diseases in general practice, the CRKG outperforms all the baselines with a precision@1 of 0.7873, recall@10 of 0.9020 and hits@10 of 0.9340. Additionally, the visualization of the reasoning process for each visit of a patient based on the knowledge graph enhances clinicians' comprehension and contributes to explainability. This study is of great importance for the exploration and application of decision making based on EHRs and knowledge graph.

The Alvarado Score Is the Most Impactful Diagnostic Tool for Appendicitis: A Bibliometric Analysis

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this bibliometric analysis was to investigate the citation pattern of studies that have developed a diagnostic tool to diagnose appendicitis.

METHODS

We investigated characteristics of citations, publication frequency, evolution of citations, and fluctuation of previously highly cited studies. We analyzed which studies had been cited in the method section and identified impactful studies in this research field by a network visualization. We analyzed the differences in citations between diagnostic tools requiring a doctor to be present against the diagnostic tools not requiring doctors to be present, English language studies against non-English studies, and identified diagnostic tools targeting children.

RESULTS

There was an upward trend in publications in this research field, and between 1999-2021 the Alvarado score has been cited the most. In general, there was a high fluctuation, and 40 studies had been cited in the methods sections. There were significant differences in studies regarding diagnostic tools written in English compared to non-English studies, with more citations in the English-language studies. Furthermore, 22 studies had children as the target population.

CONCLUSIONS

The Alvarado score was the highest cited study since 1999, with 1086 citations, making it the most impactful study in this research field of diagnostic tools to diagnose appendicitis. Due to the diversity of target populations and settings for which diagnostic tools are developed, there is a need to expand research on diagnostic tools for appendicitis.

Utility of Ischemia-Modified Albumin as a Biomarker for Acute Appendicitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute appendicitis is a frequently encountered surgical emergency. Despite several scoring systems, the possibility of delayed diagnosis persists. In addition, a delayed diagnosis leads to an increased risk of complicated appendicitis. Hence, there is a need to identify biological markers to help clinicians rapidly and accurately diagnose and prognosticate acute appendicitis with a high sensitivity and specificity. Although several markers have been evaluated, the pressing concern is still the low specificity of these markers. One such marker is serum ischemia-modified albumin (IMA), which can be a novel biomarker for accurately diagnosing and prognosticating acute appendicitis.

METHODS

The authors conducted a systematic search of the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus databases through February 2023 as per the PRISMA guidelines. The difference in the levels of IMA between patients with acute appendicitis vs. healthy controls, and the difference in the levels of IMA between patients with complicated vs. non-complicated acute appendicitis were taken as the outcome measures. Statistical analysis was performed using a random effects model and mean difference (MD) was calculated. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed by utilizing the Newcastle-Ottawa scale.

RESULTS

A total of six prospective comparative studies were included in the meta-analysis. The analysis revealed that the mean level of serum IMA was significantly raised in the acute appendicitis group (MD 0.21, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.37, p = 0.01). Similarly, the mean serum IMA levels were also raised in the complicated appendicitis group compared to the non-complicated appendicitis group (MD 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.10, p = 0.02). Three of the studies included were, however, of poor methodological quality.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum IMA is a viable potential marker for diagnosing and prognosticating acute appendicitis. However, due to the limited methodological quality of available studies, further prospectively designed and adequately powered studies are needed.

Appendicitis in Children

The management of pediatric appendicitis continues to advance with the development of evidence-based treatment algorithms and a recent shift toward patient-centered treatment approaches. Further research should focus on development of standardized institution-specific diagnostic algorithms to minimize rates of missed diagnosis and appendiceal perforation and refinement of evidence-based clinical treatment pathways that reduce complication rates and minimize health care resource utilization.

Implementation of Prediction Models in the Emergency Department from an Implementation Science Perspective-Determinants, Outcomes, and Real-World Impact: A Scoping Review

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Prediction models offer a promising form of clinical decision support in the complex and fast-paced environment of the emergency department (ED). Despite significant advancements in model development and validation, implementation of such models in routine clinical practice remains elusive. This scoping review aims to survey the current state of prediction model implementation in the ED and to provide insights on contributing factors and outcomes from an implementation science perspective.

METHODS

We searched 4 databases from their inception to May 20, 2022: MEDLINE (through PubMed), Embase, Scopus, and CINAHL. Articles that reported implementation outcomes and/or contextual determinants under the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation Maintenance (RE-AIM)/Practical, Robust, Implementation, and Sustainability Model (PRISM) framework were included. Characteristics of studies, models, and results of the RE-AIM/PRISM domains were summarized narratively.

RESULTS

Thirty-six reports on 31 implementations were included. The most common prediction models implemented were early warning scores. The most common implementation strategies used were training stakeholders, infrastructural changes, and using evaluative or iterative strategies. Only one report examined ED patients' perspectives, whereas the rest were focused on the experience of health care workers or organizational stakeholders. Key determinants of successful implementation include strong stakeholder engagement, codevelopment of workflows and implementation strategies, education, and usability.

CONCLUSION

Examining ED prediction models from an implementation science perspective can provide valuable insights and help guide future implementations.

[Appendicitis predictive score for children younger than 4 years]

Introduction

The clinical presentation of acute appendicitis in infants and young children is nonspecific. The diagnosis is often delayed and is accompanied by high rates of appendiceal perforation. The aim of the present study was to develop an early diagnostic scale for acute appendicitis in children less than 4 years of age. Results: The scale had a high discrimination index area under the ROC curve of 0.96 (95%CI 0.88-0.99), sensitivity of 95.1% (95%CI 86.3-99.0%), specificity of 90.0% (95%CI 55.7-89.5%), positive predictive value of 98.3% (95%CI 90.0-99.7%) and negative predictive value of 75.0% (95%CI 49.4-90.2). Conclusions: In this study, a risk score based on characteristics of children less than 4 years with abdominal pain was developed that may help predict a patient’s risk of developing acute appendicitis.

Patients and methods

100 children less than 4 years of age with a presumptive diagnosis of acute appendicitis were retrospectively evaluated in 4 hospitals. The case group comprised 90 patients with histopathological diagnosis of positive appendicitis (with inflammation in the appendiceal wall) while the control group comprised 10 patients with a histopathological diagnosis of negative appendicitis (without inflammation). Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound variables were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score. Accuracy of the score was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Final model comprised 4 variables (Blumberg's sign, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-lymphocyte index and positive ultrasound).

Results

The scale had a high discrimination index area under the ROC curve of 0.96 (95%CI 0.88-0.99), sensitivity of 95.1% (95%CI 86.3-99.0%), specificity of 90.0% (95%CI 55.7-89.5%), positive predictive value of 98.3% (95%CI 90.0-99.7%) and negative predictive value of 75.0% (95%CI 49.4-90.2).

Conclusions

In this study, a risk score based on characteristics of children less than 4 years with abdominal pain was developed that may help predict a patient’s risk of developing acute appendicitis.

Trends and Predictors of Pediatric Negative Appendectomy Rates: A Single-Centre Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Appendectomy is still the standard treatment for acute appendicitis in the majority of centers. Despite all available diagnostic tools, the rates of negative appendectomies are still relatively high. This study aimed to determine negative appendectomy rates and to analyze the demographic and clinical data of the patients whose histopathology report was negative.

METHODS

All patients younger than 18 years who underwent appendectomy for suspected acute appendicitis in the period from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2021 were included in the single-center retrospective study. Electronic records and archives of histopathology reports were reviewed for patients with negative appendectomy. The primary outcome of this study was a negative appendectomy rate. Secondary outcomes comprehended the rate of appendectomies and the association of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), values of laboratory markers, scoring systems, and ultrasound reports with negative histopathology reports.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 1646 appendectomies for suspected acute appendicitis were performed. In 244 patients, negative appendectomy was reported regarding the patients' pathohistology. In 39 of 244 patients, other pathologies were found, of which ovarian pathology (torsion and cysts) torsion of greater omentum and Meckel's diverticulitis were the most frequent. Finally, the ten-year negative appendectomy rate was 12.4% (205/1646). The median age was 12 years (interquartile range, IQR 9, 15). A slight female predominance was noted (52.5%). A significantly higher incidence of negative appendectomies was noted in girls, with a peak incidence between the ages of 10 and 15 years (p < 0.0001). Male children whose appendectomy was negative had significantly higher BMI values compared to female patients (p = 0.0004). The median values of white blood cell count, neutrophil count, and CRP in the patients with negative appendectomy were 10.4 × 10⁹/L, 75.9%, and 11 mg/dL, respectively. The median of Alvarado's score was 6 (IQR 4; 7.5), while the median of the AIR score was 5 (IQR 4, 7). The rate of children with negative appendectomy who underwent ultrasound was 34.4% (84/244), among which 47 (55.95%) concluded negative reports. The rates of negative appendectomies were not homogenous in terms of distribution regarding the season. The incidence of negative appendectomies was more frequent during the cold period of the year (55.3% vs. 44.7%; p = 0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of negative appendectomies were performed in children older than 9 years and most frequently in female children aged 10 to 15 years. In addition, female children have significantly lower BMI values compared to male children with negative appendectomy. An increase in the utilization of auxiliary diagnostic methods such as computed tomography could affect the reduction in the pediatric negative appendectomy rate.

The Use of Inflammatory Markers to Rule Out Acute Appendicitis in Pediatrics

Background Acute appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency in pediatric patients. The diagnosis of acute appendicitis in pediatrics is challenging and requires an accurate physical examination, laboratory study, and imaging. The aim of this study was to determine the benefits of using three inflammatory markers, white blood count (WBC), neutrophils percent (NE%), and C-reactive protein (CRP), in ruling out appendicitis in pediatric patients. Methods A retrospective study was conducted of 152 pediatric patients aged between 6 months and 14 years presenting to the emergency department between January 2018 and December 2020, with the diagnosis of appendicitis as the primary physician's main diagnosis. Demographic information and clinical data were extracted from the medical file for each patient. Results Out of the 152 patients included, 68 (44.7%) were female and 84 (55.3%) were male, with median age was 8.1 years. Thirty-six (23.7%) had acute appendicitis confirmed by histopathology. Of these 36 patients, only two patients (5.6%) had all inflammatory markers within normal limits. Conclusion  Although raised inflammatory markers may help diagnose acute appendicitis, their role in ruling it out remains limited.

Development and Validation of a Differential Diagnosis Model for Acute Appendicitis and Henoch-Schonlein Purpura in Children

Objective: To study and develop a predictive model for the differential diagnosis of acute appendicitis (AA) and Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP) in children and to validate the model internally and externally. Methods: The complete data of AA and HSP cases were retrospectively analyzed and divided into internal and external verification groups. SPSS software was used for single-factor analysis and screening of independent variables, and R software was used for the development and verification of the diagnostic model. Lasso regression analysis was used to screen predictors and Lasso-logistic regression model was constructed, and K-fold cross-validation was used for the internal verification. In addition, nonfever patients were selected for model development and validation in the same way. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were drawn, respectively, to evaluate the 2 models. Results: Internal development and validation of the model showed that fever, neutrophil ratio (NEUT%), albumin (ALB), direct bilirubin (DBIL), C-reactive protein (CRP), and K were predictive factors for the diagnosis of HSP. The model was presented in the form of a nomogram, and the area under ROC curve of the development group and verification group was 0.9462 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9402-0.9522) and 0.8931 (95% CI = 0.8724-0.9139), respectively. In the model of patients without fever, NEUT%, platelets (PLT), ALB, DBIL, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), CRP, and K were predictive factors for the diagnosis of HSP, and the area under ROC curve of the development group and verification group was 0.9186 (95% CI = 0.908-0.9293) and 0.8591 (95% CI = 0.8284-0.8897), respectively. Conclusion: In this study, 2 diagnostic models were constructed for fever or not, both of which had good discrimination and calibration, and were helpful to distinguish AA and HSP in children.

Resource utilization and outcomes among children risk stratified by pediatric appendicitis risk calculator at a tertiary pediatric center

OBJECTIVES

Appendicitis is a common pediatric condition requiring surgery. The pediatric appendicitis risk calculator (pARC) was recently developed to guide clinical care. The objective of this study is to describe resource utilization and clinical outcomes among children with appendix ultrasound (US) scans risk stratified by pARC score.

METHODS

Prospective enrolled observational cohort single-center study of children aged 5-18, who had an US for suspected appendicitis. We estimated the rate of appendicitis, rate of equivocal US scans, and resource utilization by pARC score strata. Total adjusted charges were determined for low-risk pARC patients compared to discharged emergency department (ED) patients with abdominal pain and complete blood count (CBC) obtained without advanced abdominal imaging.

RESULTS

Over the 13-month study period, 407 children were enrolled. The overall rate of appendicitis was 33.4%, and 199 (49%) were male. The observed rate of appendicitis was 3.3% in those with a pARC score of <15% and 96.8% in those with a pARC score of ≥85%. Of enrolled patients, 152 (37.3%) had a pARC score <15%. Of those with a pARC score of <15%, the negative appendectomy rate was 28.6%, and the rate of equivocal US was 49.3%. The rate of CT scans and hospitalizations was 19% and 23%, respectively. Median total charges for patients with pARC <15% with usual care were $3756. Median total charges for patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain who had a CBC but no advanced abdominal imaging performed was $2484, indicating a potential savings of $1272 per patient.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high rate of resource utilization among patients who are low appendicitis risk by pARC score. Outcome variation by pARC scores presents future opportunity to selectively reduce resource utilization in pediatric patients.

Diagnostic Value of Clinical Prediction Scores for Acute Appendicitis in Children Younger than 4 Years

INTRODUCTION

 Acute appendicitis can be difficult to diagnose, especially in children < 4 years old. The aim of the present study was to assess the diagnostic value of Alvarado score (AS), appendicitis inflammatory response (AIR) score, and pediatric appendicitis score (PAS) in children younger than 4 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 All children younger than 4 years who underwent appendicectomy between 2005 and 2019 were included retrospectively. The diagnostic performance of the scores was analyzed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve and by calculating the diagnostic performances at optimal criterion value cutoff points.

RESULTS

 In this study, 100 children were included (58 boys and 42 girls) with a median age of 39.5 (12-47) months. Ninety children were diagnosed with pathologically proven acute appendicitis. The area under ROC curve of AS was 0.73, AIR score was 0.79, and PAS was 0.69 (p > 0.05, respectively). In children with low risk of acute appendicitis, negative predictive values were 75.0% for AS, 50.0% for AIR score, and 66.7% for PAS (p < 0.05, respectively). The positive predictive values in children with high risk of acute appendicitis were of 92.7% for AS, 92.6% for AIR score, and 93.6% for PAS (p > 0.05, respectively). AS, AIR score, and PAS plus positive ultrasonography have 0.58, 0.49, and 0.88 area under ROC curve.

CONCLUSION

 The three scores can be of assistance in the suspicion of acute appendicitis. PAS markedly improved combined with positive ultrasonography, but none can be used in setting the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in young children.

Development and Validation of the Asthma Exacerbation Risk Score Using Claims Data

OBJECTIVE

Pediatric asthma is a costly and complex disease with proven interventions to prevent exacerbations. Finding the patients at highest risk of exacerbations is paramount given limited resources. Insurance claims identify all outpatient, inpatient, emergency, pharmacy, and diagnostic services. The objective was to develop a risk score indicating the likelihood of asthma exacerbation within the next year based on prior utilization.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of insurance claims for patients 2 to 18 years in a network in Massachusetts with 3 years of continuous enrollment in a commercial plan. Thirty-six potential predictors of exacerbation in the third year were assessed with a stepwise regression. Retained predictors were weighted relative to their contribution to asthma exacerbation risk and summed to create the Asthma Exacerbation Risk (AER) score.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 28,196 patients, there were 10 predictors associated with the outcome of having an asthma exacerbation in the next year that depend on age, meeting the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set persistent asthma criteria, fill patterns of asthma medications and oral steroids, counts of nonexacerbation outpatient visits, an exacerbation in the last 6 months, and whether spirometry was performed. The AER score is calculated monthly from a claims database to identify potential patients for an asthma home-visiting program.

CONCLUSIONS

The AER score assigns a risk of exacerbation within the next 12 months using claims data to identify patients in need of preventive services.

Development of the Novel Pneumonia Risk Score to Predict Radiographic Pneumonia in Children

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of pneumonia in children is challenging, given the wide overlap of many of the symptoms and physical examination findings with other common respiratory illnesses. We sought to derive and validate the novel Pneumonia Risk Score (PRS), a clinical tool utilizing signs and symptoms available to clinicians to determine a child's risk of radiographic pneumonia.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled children 3 months to 18 years in whom a chest radiograph (CXR) was obtained in the emergency department to evaluate for pneumonia. Before CXR, we collected information regarding symptoms, physical examination findings, and the physician-estimated probability of radiographic pneumonia. Logistic regression was used to predict the presence of radiographic pneumonia, and the PRS was validated in a distinct cohort of children with suspected pneumonia.

RESULTS

Among 1181 children included in the study, 206 (17%) had radiographic pneumonia. The PRS included age in years, triage oxygen saturation, presence of fever, presence of rales, and presence of wheeze. The area under the curve (AUC) of the PRS was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-0.75), while the AUC of clinician judgment was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) (P < 0.001). Among 2132 children included in the validation cohort, the PRS demonstrated an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In children with suspected pneumonia, the PRS is superior to clinician judgment in predicting the presence of radiographic pneumonia. Use of the PRS may help efforts to support the judicious use of antibiotics and chest radiography among children with suspected pneumonia.

A QI Partnership to Decrease CT Use for Pediatric Appendicitis in the Community Hospital Setting

The primary aim of this quality improvement initiative was to decrease the use of computerized tomography (CT) in the evaluation of pediatric appendicitis in a community general emergency department (GED) system by 50% (from 32% to 16%) in 1 year.

METHODS

Colleagues within a State Emergency Medical Service for Children (EMSC) community of practice formed the quality improvement team, representing multiple stakeholders across 3 independent institutions. The team generated project aims by reviewing baseline practice trends and implemented changes using the Model for Improvement. Ultrasound (US) use and nondiagnostic US rates served as process measures. Transfer and "over-transfer" rates served as balancing measures. Interventions included a GED pediatric appendicitis clinical pathway, US report templates, and case audit and feedback. Statistical process control tracked the main outcomes. Additionally, frontline GED providers shared perceptions of knowledge gains, practice changes, and teamwork.

RESULTS

The 12-month baseline revealed a GED CT scan rate of 32%, a US rate of 63%, a nondiagnostic US rate of 77%, a transfer to a children's hospital rate of 23.5%, and an "over-transfer" rate of 0%. Project interventions achieved and sustained the primary aim by decreasing the CT scan rate to 4.5%. Frontline GED providers reported positive perceptions of knowledge gains and standardization of practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Engaging regional colleagues in a pediatric-specific quality improvement initiative significantly decreased CT scan use in children cared for in a community GED system. The emphasis on the community of practice facilitated by Emergency Medical Service for Children may guide future improvement work in the state and beyond.

Cost effectiveness of the quality assurance and performance improvement project for suspected appendicitis study

INTRODUCTION

Appendicitis is the most common pediatric emergent surgical condition, with 77,000 American pediatric admissions costing $680 million US annually. Diagnosing appendicitis can be challenging. The prospective Quality Assurance and performance improvement project for suspected aPPEndicitis (QAPPE) study implemented a standardized appendicitis assessment pathway. This current study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the QAPPE pathway.

METHODS

QAPPE data (February 2018-January 2019) were compared to retrospective data from the year prior (January-December 2017). Patients aged <18, presenting with suspicion of appendicitis were identified using the emergency department patient database. Patients were excluded if they were transferred from an outside center or if appendicitis was not suspected. Study arms were compared using Student's t-test and assessed with standard costing techniques. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) was determined. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses of the model were performed. Effectiveness was assessed by percent of negative appendectomies where alternate diagnosis was made intraoperatively or histologically. Significance was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

QAPPE (n = 247) and traditional care (n = 234) patients were compared. Traditional care had higher admission frequency and lower pediatric appendicitis score. Demographics between all included patients and those admitted were similar overall. Patient costs were $3656.32 (95% CI $2407-$5250) Canadian (CAD) for QAPPE and $3823.56 (95% CI $2604-$5451) CAD for traditional care. QAPPE was the dominant strategy in the base model and probabilistic simulation found it favored in 64.7% of model iterations with a willingness to pay of $70,000 CAD.

CONCLUSION

Using the QAPPE pathway to assess patients with suspected appendicitis reduced costs and improved effectiveness of patient care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2.

Clinical Features and Preventability of Delayed Diagnosis of Pediatric Appendicitis

IMPORTANCE

Delayed diagnosis of appendicitis is associated with worse outcomes than timely diagnosis, but clinical features associated with diagnostic delay are uncertain, and the extent to which delays are preventable is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine clinical features associated with delayed diagnosis of pediatric appendicitis, assess the frequency of preventable delay, and compare delay outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This case-control study included 748 children treated at 5 pediatric emergency departments in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019. Participants were younger than 21 years and had a diagnosis of appendicitis.

EXPOSURES

Individual features of appendicitis and pretest likelihood of appendicitis were measured by the Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Case patients had a delayed diagnosis of appendicitis, defined as 2 emergency department visits leading to diagnosis and a case review showing the patient likely had appendicitis at the first visit. Control patients had a single emergency department visit yielding a diagnosis. Clinical features and pARC scores were compared by case-control status. Preventability of delay was assessed as unlikely, possible, or likely. The proportion of children with indicated imaging based on an evidence-based cost-effectiveness threshold was determined. Outcomes of delayed diagnosis were compared by case-control status, including hospital length of stay, perforation, and multiple surgical procedures.

RESULTS

A total of 748 children (mean [SD] age, 10.2 [4.3] years; 392 boys [52.4%]; 427 White children [57.1%]) were included in the study; 471 (63.0%) had a delayed diagnosis of appendicitis, and 277 (37.0%) had no delay in diagnosis. Children with a delayed diagnosis were less likely to have pain with walking (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.16; 95% CI, 0.10-0.25), maximal pain in the right lower quadrant (aOR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.07-0.19), and abdominal guarding (aOR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.21-0.51), and were more likely to have a complex chronic condition (aOR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.05-5.23). The pretest likelihood of appendicitis was 39% to 52% lower in children with a delayed vs timely diagnosis. Among children with a delayed diagnosis, 109 cases (23.1%) were likely to be preventable, and 247 (52.4%) were possibly preventable. Indicated imaging was performed in 104 (22.0%) to 289 (61.3%) children with delayed diagnosis, depending on the imputation method for missing data on white blood cell count. Patients with delayed diagnosis had longer hospital length of stay (mean difference between the groups, 2.8 days; 95% CI, 2.3-3.4 days) and higher perforation rates (OR, 7.8; 95% CI, 5.5-11.3) and were more likely to undergo 2 or more surgical procedures (OR, 8.0; 95% CI, 2.0-70.4).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case-control study, delayed appendicitis was associated with initially milder symptoms but worse outcomes. These findings suggest that a majority of delayed diagnoses were at least possibly preventable and that many of these patients did not undergo indicated imaging, suggesting an opportunity to prevent delayed diagnosis of appendicitis in some children.

Novel molecular biomarkers and diagnosis of acute appendicitis in children

Reliable and efficient diagnosis of pediatric appendicitis is essential for the establishment of a clinical management plan and improvement of patient outcomes. Current strategies used to diagnose a child presenting with a suspected appendicitis include laboratory studies, clinical scores and diagnostic imaging. Although these modalities work in conjunction with each other, one optimal diagnostic strategy has yet to be agreed upon. The recent introduction of precision medicine techniques such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics has increased both the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of appendicitis. Using these novel strategies, the integration of precision medicine into clinical practice via point-of-care technologies is a plausible future. These technologies would assist in the screening, diagnosis and prognosis of pediatric appendicitis.

Clinical Prediction Scores for Pediatric Appendicitis

INTRODUCTION

 The rate of misdiagnosis of appendicitis in children is a challenge and clinical prediction scores could be part of the solution. However, the pediatric appendicitis score (PAS) and the Alvarado score have shown disappointing diagnostic accuracy in pediatric validation studies, while the appendicitis inflammatory response (AIR) score and the novel pediatric appendicitis risk calculator (pARC) have not yet been validated thoroughly. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate these four prediction scores prospectively in children with suspected appendicitis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 A prospective study was conducted over a 2-year period. All patients <15 years with suspected appendicitis were eligible for inclusion. The four prediction scores were compared regarding predictive values, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical outcome.

RESULTS

 Of the 318 patients included, 151 (47 %) patients had appendicitis. The AIR score and the pARC had substantially higher specificity and positive predictive value, and lower rate of false positives (7% and 2%), than the PAS and Alvarado score (36 and 28%, p < 0.001). Across the different gender and age groups, the AIR score and the pARC generally had fewer false positives than the PAS and Alvarado score. There were no significant differences in sensitivity, negative predictive values, rates of missed appendicitis, or ROC curve analysis. In decision curve analysis, the AIR score and the pARC outperformed the PAS and Alvarado score at most threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

 The AIR score and the pARC are superior to the PAS and Alvarado score in diagnosing children with suspected appendicitis.

A Descriptive Analysis of the Cumulative Experiences of Emergency Medicine Residents in the Pediatric Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

Most children seeking emergency care are evaluated in general emergency departments (EDs). The cumulative pediatric clinical experiences of emergency medicine (EM) residents are largely unknown. This study examined EM resident pediatric clinical experience through the lens of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education requirements and the Model of the Clinical Practice of Emergency Medicine.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational study of the cumulative clinical experience of two classes of EM residents from a 4-year training program at two pediatric EDs of a quaternary care pediatric center. A database of resident patient encounters was generated from the electronic medical record. Experiences classified included: diagnosis categories per the Model of the Clinical Practice of Emergency Medicine, procedures, and resuscitations. Results were stratified by age, acuity, and disposition.

RESULTS

Twenty-five EM residents evaluated 17,642 patients (median = 723). Most patients (73.5%) were emergent acuity (Emergency Severity Index triage level 2 or 3 or non-intensive care admission); 2% were critical. Residents participated in 598 (median = 22) medical resuscitations and 483 (median = 19) trauma resuscitations. Minor procedures (e.g., laceration repair) were commonly performed; critical procedures (e.g., intubation) were rare. Exposure to neonates was infrequent and pediatric deaths were rare. Abdominal pain (5.7%), asthma exacerbation (4.6%), and fever (3.8%) were the most common diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency medicine residents encountered a wide array of pediatric diagnoses throughout training and performed a substantial number of common pediatric procedures. Exposure to critical acuity and procedures, neonatal pathology, and certain pediatric-specific diagnoses, such as congenital heart disease, was limited despite training in a large, quaternary care children's hospital. Curriculum development and collaboration should focus on these areas.

Effect of Clinical Decision Support on Diagnostic Imaging for Pediatric Appendicitis: A Cluster Randomized Trial

IMPORTANCE

Appendicitis is the most common pediatric surgical emergency. Efforts to improve efficiency and quality of care have increased reliance on computed tomography (CT) and ultrasonography (US) in children with suspected appendicitis.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of an electronic health record-linked clinical decision support intervention, AppyCDS, on diagnostic imaging, health care costs, and safety outcomes for patients with suspected appendicitis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this parallel, cluster randomized trial, 17 community-based general emergency departments (EDs) in California, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were randomized to the AppyCDS intervention group or usual care (UC) group. Patients were aged 5 to 20 years, presenting for an ED visit with right-sided or diffuse abdominal pain lasting 5 days or less. We excluded pregnant patients, those with a prior appendectomy, those with selected comorbidities, and those with traumatic injuries. The trial was conducted from October 2016 to July 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

AppyCDS prompted data entry at the point of care to estimate appendicitis risk using the pediatric appendicitis risk calculator (pARC). Based on pARC estimates, AppyCDS recommended next steps in care.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were CT, US, or any imaging (CT or US) during the index ED visit. Safety outcomes were perforations, negative appendectomies, and missed appendicitis. Costs were a secondary outcome. Ratio of ratios (RORs) for primary and safety outcomes and differences by group in cost were used to evaluate effectiveness of the clinical decision support tool.

RESULTS

We enrolled 3161 patients at intervention EDs and 2779 patients at UC EDs. The mean age of patients was 11.9 (4.6) years and 2614 (44.0%) were boys or young men. RORs for CT (0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.19), US (0.98; 95% CI, 0.84-1.14), and any imaging (0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.07) did not differ by study group. In an exploratory analysis conducted in 1 health system, AppyCDS was associated with a reduction in any imaging (ROR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73- 0.93) for patients with pARC score of 15% or less and a reduction in CT (ROR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.74) for patients with a pARC score of 16% to 50%. Perforations, negative appendectomies, and cases of missed appendicitis by study phase did not differ significantly by study group. Costs did not differ overall by study group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, AppyCDS was not associated with overall reductions in diagnostic imaging; exploratory analysis revealed more appropriate use of imaging in patients with a low pARC score.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02633735.

Diagnostic Performance of Emergency Physician Gestalt for Predicting Acute Appendicitis in Patients Age 5 to 20 Years

OBJECTIVES

Pediatric appendicitis remains a challenging diagnosis in the emergency department (ED). Available risk prediction algorithms may contribute to excessive ED imaging studies. Incorporation of physician gestalt assessment could help refine predictive tools and improve diagnostic imaging decisions.

METHODS

This study was a subanalysis of a parent study that prospectively enrolled patients ages 5 to 20.9 years with a chief complaint of abdominal pain presenting to 11 community EDs within an integrated delivery system between October 1, 2016, and September 30, 2018. Prior to diagnostic imaging, attending emergency physicians enrolled patients with ≤5 days of right-sided or diffuse abdominal pain using a Web-based application embedded in the electronic health record. Predicted risk (gestalt) of acute appendicitis was prospectively entered using a sliding scale from 1% to 100%. As a planned secondary analysis, we assessed the performance of gestalt via c-statistics of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves; tested associations between gestalt performance and patient, physician, and facility characteristics; and examined clinical characteristics affecting gestalt estimates.

RESULTS

Of 3,426 patients, 334 (9.8%) had confirmed appendicitis. Physician gestalt had excellent ROC curve characteristics (c-statistic = 0.83, 95% confidence interval = 0.81 to 0.85), performing particularly well in the low-risk strata (appendicitis rate = 1.1% in gestalt 1%-10% range, negative predictive value of 98.9% for appendicitis diagnosis). Physicians with ≥5 years since medical school graduation demonstrated improved gestalt performance over those with less experience (p = 0.007). All clinical characteristics tested, except pain <24 hours, were significantly associated with physician gestalt value (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Physician gestalt for acute appendicitis diagnosis performed well, especially in low-risk patients and when employed by experienced physicians.

Trends in Use of Advanced Imaging in Pediatric Emergency Departments, 2009-2018

Importance

There is increased awareness of radiation risks from computed tomography (CT) in pediatric patients. In emergency departments (EDs), evidence-based guidelines, improvements in imaging technology, and availability of nonradiating modalities have potentially reduced CT use.

Objective

To evaluate changes over time and hospital variation in advanced imaging use.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study assessed 26 082 062 ED visits by children younger than 18 years from the Pediatric Health Information System administrative database from January 1, 2009, through December 31, 2018.

Exposures

Imaging.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the change in CT, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) rates from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018. Imaging for specific diagnoses was examined using all patient-refined diagnosis related groups. Secondary outcomes were hospital admission and 3-day ED revisit rates and ED length of stay.

Results

There were a total of 26 082 062 visits by 9 868 406 children (mean [SD] age, 5.59 [5.15] years; 13 842 567 [53.1%] male; 9 273 181 [35.6%] non-Hispanic white) to 32 US pediatric EDs during the 10-year study period, with 1 or more advanced imaging studies used in 1 919 283 encounters (7.4%). The proportion of ED encounters with any advanced imaging increased from 6.4% (95% CI, 6.2%-6.2%) in 2009 to 8.7% (95% CI, 8.7%-8.8%) in 2018. The proportion of ED encounters with CT decreased from 3.9% (95% CI, 3.9%-3.9%) to 2.9% (95% CI, 2.9%-3.0%) (P < .001 for trend), with ultrasonography increased from 2.5% (95% CI, 2.5%-2.6%) to 5.8% (95% CI, 5.8%-5.9%) (P < .001 for trend), and with MRI increased from 0.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.4%) to 0.6% (95% CI, 0.6%-0.6%) (P < .001 for trend). The largest decreases in CT rates were for concussion (-23.0%), appendectomy (-14.9%), ventricular shunt procedures (-13.3%), and headaches (-12.4%). Factors associated with increased use of nonradiating imaging modalities included ultrasonography for abdominal pain (20.3%) and appendectomy (42.5%) and MRI for ventricular shunt procedures (17.9%) (P < .001 for trend). Across the study period, EDs varied widely in the use of ultrasonography for appendectomy (median, 57.5%; interquartile range [IQR], 40.4%-69.8%) and MRI (median, 15.8%; IQR, 8.3%-35.1%) and CT (median, 69.5%; IQR, 54.5%-76.4%) for ventricular shunt procedures. Overall, ED length of stay did not change, and hospitalization and 3-day ED revisit rates decreased during the study period.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that use of advanced imaging increased from 2009 to 2018. Although CT use decreased, this decrease was accompanied by a greater increase in the use of ultrasonography and MRI. There appears to be substantial variation in practice and a need to standardize imaging practices.

A clinical prediction model for complicated appendicitis in children younger than five years of age

Background

No reliably specific method for complicated appendicitis has been identified in children younger than five years of age. This study aimed to analyze the independent factors for complicated appendicitis in children younger than five years of age, develop and validate a prediction model for the differentiation of simple and complicated appendicitis.

Methods

A retrospective study of 382 children younger than five years of age with acute appendicitis from January 2007 to December 2016 was conducted with assessments of demographic data, clinical symptoms and signs, and pre-operative laboratory results. According to intraoperative findings and postoperative pathological results, acute appendicitis was divided into simple and complicated appendicitis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen out the independent factors of complicated appendicitis, and develop a prediction model for complicated appendicitis. Then 156 such patients from January 2017 to December 2019 were collected as validation sample to validate the prediction model. Test performance of the prediction model was compared with the ALVARADO score and Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS).

Results

Of the 382 patients, 244 (63.9%) had complicated appendicitis. Age, white blood cell count, and duration of symptoms were the independent factors for complicated appendicitis in children younger than five years of age. The final predication model for complicated appendicitis included factors above. In validation sample, the prediction model exhibited a high degree of discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.830; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.762–0.885) corresponding to a optimal cutoff value of 0.62, and outperformed the PAS (AUC: 0.735; 95% CI: 0.658–0.802), ALVARADO score (AUC: 0.733; 95% CI: 0.657–0.801).

Conclusion

Age, white blood cell count, and duration of symptoms could be used to predict complicated appendicitis in children younger than five years of age with acute appendicitis. The prediction model is a novel but promising method that aids in the differentiation of acute simple and complicated appendicitis.

Improving the diagnostic accuracy of appendicitis using a multidisciplinary pathway

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Improvement opportunities exist in the accuracy and timeliness of the diagnosis of childhood appendicitis. The purpose of our study was to conduct a post-implementation audit of a diagnostic pathway for children with suspected appendicitis presenting to our pediatric emergency department.

METHODS

We adopted a diagnostic pathway that utilized a validated risk of appendicitis stratification tool (Alvarado Score) with protocolized use of abdominal ultrasound for moderate risk patients. We conducted a 10% convenience sample audit of pathway patients treated over the subsequent 18-month period. Outcome measures included false negative and positive rates, sensitivity, specificity, and overall pathway accuracy.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-four pathway patients, of which 22 (16.4%) had appendicitis confirmed pathologically, were evaluated. The risk group distribution of patients was: low risk (29%), moderate risk (60%), and high risk (11%). The negative appendectomy rate was 4.4% (reduced from 14% pre-pathway), and the false negative (missed appendicitis) rate was 3.0%. No patients received CT scans. Pathway sensitivity was 81.8%% (95% CI 59.7% to 94.8%), specificity-92.9%% (95% CI 86.4%-96.9%), and overall accuracy-91.0% (95% CI 84.9%-95.3%).

CONCLUSION

Implementation of a diagnostic pathway achieved a high level of accuracy and reduced our institutional negative appendectomy rate by 67%. The audit identified additional pathway improvement opportunities.

LEVELS OF EVIDENCE

Level IV.

Time course response of inflammatory markers in pediatric appendicitis

PURPOSE

We aim to evaluate the diagnostic value and time course response of the triple inflammatory markers: white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil percentage (Neu), and C-reactive protein (CRP) in pediatric acute appendicitis.

METHODS

A retrospective review of clinical data pertaining to 1391 patients admitted with suspicion for pediatric appendicitis from 2012 to 2017 was conducted. Triple inflammatory markers were acquired upon admission. Appendicitis was confirmed histologically post-appendectomy. The diagnostic value and time course response of these markers was trended in relation to the duration of abdominal pain on admission.

RESULTS

718 patients had histologically confirmed appendicitis. WBC and Neu demonstrate high sensitivity for early appendicitis at 94.6% and 80.0% at Day 1, while CRP demonstrates highest sensitivity of 97.9% at Day 4. The triple markers had poor overall diagnostic value when interpreted individually, however, had a high combined sensitivity of 99.7% and negative predictive value of 98.7% regardless of duration of disease. Overall negative appendectomy rate was 6.7% (n = 52). Among 19 patients with triple markers negative who underwent appendectomy, 17 (89.5%) were histologically normal.

CONCLUSIONS

The triple inflammatory markers have limited diagnostic value when interpreted individually, but are strong discriminators of pediatric appendicitis when combined. Their high sensitivity and negative predictive value could potentially help patients avoid unnecessary admissions or costly imaging studies, and reduce negative appendectomy rates. In addition, their objective nature confers an advantage over existing clinical scoring systems which comprise subjective elements.

Cost-effectiveness of Imaging Protocols for Suspected Appendicitis

BACKGROUND

Inaccurate diagnosis of appendicitis leads to increased costs and morbidity. Ultrasound costs less than computed tomography (CT) or MRI but has lower sensitivity and may not visualize the appendix.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision-analytic model of 10 imaging strategies for suspected appendicitis in a hypothetical cohort of patients: no imaging with discharge or surgery; CT only; MRI only; or staged approach with CT or MRI after 1) negative ultrasound result or ultrasound without appendix visualization, 2) ultrasound without appendix visualization, or 3) ultrasound without appendix visualization but with secondary signs of inflammation. Inputs were derived from published literature and secondary data (quality-of-life and cost data). Sensitivity analyses varied risk of appendicitis and proportion of visualized ultrasound. Outcomes were effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), total direct medical costs, and cost-effectiveness (cost per QALY gained).

RESULTS

The most cost-effective strategy for patients at moderate risk for appendicitis is initial ultrasound, followed by CT if the appendix is not visualized but secondary signs are present (cost of $4815.03; effectiveness of 0.99694 QALYs). Other strategies were well above standard willingness-to-pay thresholds or were more costly and less effective. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to patients' risk of appendicitis but not the proportion of visualized appendices.

CONCLUSIONS

Tailored approaches to imaging based on patients' risk of appendicitis are the most cost-effective. Imaging is not cost-effective in patients with a probability <16% or >95%. For moderate-risk patients, ultrasound without secondary signs of inflammation is sufficient even without appendix visualization.

Survey of efficacy of pediatric appendicitis score in Iranian patients less than 18 years old referred to the emergency department

Introduction:

Abdominal pain, in particular appendicitis, is a common cause of emergency department visits in children. Therefore, early diagnosis is very important. There are different scoring systems for the diagnosis of appendicitis. This study is the first study to evaluate the performance and accuracy of pediatric appendicitis score (PAS) in Iranian children with abdominal pain in emergency departments.

Methods:

This is a cross-sectional study of children under 18 years with suspected appendicitis who were referred to the emergency medicine department of hospitals affiliated to SBMU during 2015. Acute appendicitis was determined according to pathological findings, and final PAS scores were calculated for all children. With statistical analysis, comparison between two groups was calculated and the diagnostic accuracy of PAS score was estimated.

Results:

88 children with mean age of 10.5 ± 3 were studied. According to clinical examination 58 of the children were suspected to have acute appendicitis and 30 others were healthy. In current study, the diagnostic accuracy and precision of PAS at cutoff of 5.5 in patients younger than 18 years admitted to the emergency department with suspected acute appendicitis was 91% and 92%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 93.88%, 86.21% and 92%, 89.29%, respectively.

Conclusions:

The results of current study showed that PAS has high diagnostic predictive value for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in children under 18 years and due to the advantages listed for this score, its use is recommended for children in emergencies.

Validation of the Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC) in a Community Emergency Department Setting

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC) is a validated clinical tool for assessing a child's probability of appendicitis. Our objective was to assess the performance of the pARC in community emergency departments (EDs) and to compare its performance with that of the Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective validation study from October 1, 2016, to April 30, 2018, in 11 community EDs serving general populations. Patients aged 5 to 20.9 years and with a chief complaint of abdominal pain and less than or equal to 5 days of right-sided or diffuse abdominal pain were eligible for study enrollment. Our primary outcome was the presence or absence of appendicitis within 7 days of the index visit. We reported performance characteristics and secondary outcomes by pARC risk strata and compared the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of the PAS and pARC.

RESULTS

We enrolled 2,089 patients with a mean age of 12.4 years, 46% of whom were male patients. Appendicitis was confirmed in 353 patients (16.9%), of whom 55 (15.6%) had perforated appendixes. Fifty-four percent of patients had very low (<5%) or low (5% to 14%) predicted risk, 43% had intermediate risk (15% to 84%), and 4% had high risk (≥85%). In the very-low- and low-risk groups, 1.4% and 3.0% of patients had appendicitis, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.92) for the pARC compared with 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.82) for the PAS.

CONCLUSION

The pARC accurately assessed appendicitis risk for children aged 5 years and older in community EDs and the pARC outperformed the PAS.

A new clinical score to identify children at low risk for appendicitis

BACKGROUND

Besides clinical signs and imaging, in recent years, biomarkers have proven to be a viable diagnostic resource for acute appendicitis (AA).

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to develop a clinical score including clinical signs and a combination of biomarkers to identify children with abdominal pain at low risk of AA.

DESIGN/METHODS

We prospectively included children 2 to 14 years of age with abdominal pain suggestive of AA who presented to the emergency department between July 2016 and September 2017. A new score, the Pediatric Appendicitis Laboratory Score (PALabS) including clinical signs, leucocyte (WBC) and neutrophil (ANC) counts and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and calprotectin (CP) levels was developed and validated through secondary analyses of two distinct cohorts The validation sample included visits to a single pediatric emergency department from 2012 to 2013 and 2016 to 2017.

RESULTS

The derivation sample included 278 children, 35.9% of whom had AA and the validation sample included 255 children, 49% of whom had AA. Using logistic regression, we created a 6-part score that consisted of nausea (3 points), history of focal right lower quadrant pain (4 points), ANC of ≥7500/μL (7 points), WBC of ≥10,000/μL (4 points), CRP ≥ 10.0 mg/L (2 points) and CP ≥ 0.50 ≥ ng/mL (3 points). This score exhibited a high discriminatory power (area under the curve: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.84 to 0.92) and outperformed the PAS and Kharbanda scores (area under the curve: 0.76; 95% confidence interval: 0.71 to 0.82 and 0.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.77 to 0.87, respectively). A PALabS ≤6 had a sensitivity of 99.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 95.6-99.9), negative predictive value of 97.6% (95% CI: 87.7-99.6), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.03 (95% CI: 0.00-0.18) in the validation set.

CONCLUSION

In our validation cohort of patients with acute abdominal pain, the new score can accurately predict which children are at low risk of appendicitis and could be safely managed with close observation.

Development of a Clinical Decision Support System for Pediatric Abdominal Pain in Emergency Department Settings Across Two Health Systems Within the HCSRN

BACKGROUND

Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency in children, yet diagnosis can be challenging. An electronic health record (EHR) based, clinical decision support (CDS) system called Appy CDS was designed to help guide management of pediatric patients with acute abdominal pain within the Health Care Systems Research Network (HCSRN).

OBJECTIVES

To describe the development and implementation of a clinical decision support tool (Appy CDS) built independently but synergistically at two large HCSRN affiliated health systems using well-established platforms, and to assess the tool's Triage component, aiming to identify pediatric patients at increased risk for appendicitis.

RESULTS

Despite differences by site in design and implementation, such as the use of alerts, incorporating gestalt, and other workflow variations across sites, using simple screening questions and automated exclusions, both systems were able to identify a population with similar appendicitis rates (11.8 percent and 10.6 percent), where use of the full Appy CDS would be indicated.

DISCUSSION

These 2 HCSRN sites designed Appy CDS to capture a population at risk for appendicitis and deliver CDS to that population while remaining locally relevant and adhering to organizational preferences. Despite different approaches to point-of-care CDS, the sites have identified similar cohorts with nearly identical background rates of appendicitis.

NEXT STEPS

The full Appy CDS tool, providing personalized risk assessment and tailored recommendations, is undergoing evaluation as part of a pragmatic cluster randomized trial aiming to reduce reliance on advanced diagnostic imaging. The novel approaches to CDS we present could serve as the basis for future ED interventions.

Development and Validation of a Cellulitis Risk Score: The Melbourne ASSET Score

: media-1vid110.1542/5972298232001PEDS-VA_2018-1420Video Abstract BACKGROUND: The evidence is unclear about the optimal route of treatment for children with cellulitis, specifically how to assess the risk of moderate-to-severe cellulitis requiring intravenous (IV) antibiotics. We aimed to derive and validate a cellulitis risk assessment scoring system to guide providers as to which patients require IV antibiotics.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of children presenting to the emergency department aged 6 months to 18 years diagnosed with cellulitis from January 2014 to August 2017. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on route of antibiotics at 24 hours (the predetermined gold standard). Demographics and clinical features were compared. Clinicians were surveyed about which features they used to decide whether to start IV antibiotics. Combinations of differentiating features were plotted on receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

There were 285 children in the derivation cohort used to create the Melbourne Area, Systemic features, Swelling, Eye, Tenderness (ASSET) Score, which has a maximum score of 7. The area under the curve was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.91). Using a cutoff score of 4 to start IV antibiotics yielded the highest correct classification of 80% of patients (sensitivity 60%; specificity 93%). This score was validated in 251 children and maintained a robust area under the curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

The Melbourne ASSET Score was derived and validated for cellulitis in children to guide clinicians regarding when to start IV antibiotics. Although intended for widespread use, if limitations exist in other settings, it is designed to allow for refinement and is amenable to local impact analysis.

Estimating Risk of Pneumonia in a Prospective Emergency Department Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To improve the prediction of pediatric pneumonia by developing a series of models based on clinically distinct subgroups. We hypothesized that these subgroup models would provide superior estimates of pneumonia risk compared with a single pediatric model.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort being evaluated for radiographic pneumonia in an urban pediatric emergency department (ED). Using multivariate modeling, we created 4 models across subgroups stratified by age and presence of wheezing to predict the risk of pneumonia.

RESULTS

A total of 2351 patients were included in the study. In this series, the prevalence of pneumonia was 8.5%, and 21.6% were hospitalized. The highest prevalence of pneumonia was in children aged >2 years without wheezing (13.3%). Children aged <2 years with wheezing had the lowest prevalence of pneumonia (4.0%). The most accurate model was for children aged <2 years with wheezing (area under the curve [AUC], 0.80), and the poorest performing model was for those aged <2 years without wheezing (AUC, 0.64). The AUC of a combination of the 4 subgroup models was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80). The precision of the models' estimates (expected vs observed) was ± 3.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using 4 complementary prediction models for pediatric pneumonia, an accurate risk of pneumonia can be calculated. These models can provide the basis for clinical decision making support to guide the use of chest radiographs and promote antibiotic stewardship.

Pediatric subhepatic appendicitis with elevated lipase

Appendicitis is the most common surgical emergency in children, of which most are located in the retrocecal space or pelvis. Appendicitis occurring in the subhepatic space is uncommon and may present with atypical features such as right upper quadrant pain, leading to delayed diagnosis and complications. We present a rare case of subhepatic appendicitis in an 11-year-old female, who presented with a three-day history of both right upper quadrant (RUQ) and right lower quadrant (RLQ) abdominal pain and serum lipase elevated four times the upper normal limit. The abdominal ultrasound was normal, except for prominent RLQ abdominal lymph nodes. Hours later, a computed tomography scan revealed a non-ruptured subhepatic appendicitis and normal pancreas. Our patient encounter demonstrates the need to be aware of the atypical presentations of pediatric appendicitis in general and subhepatic appendicitis in particular. Moreover, to our knowledge, this is the first reported case of elevated lipase (with a radiographically normal pancreas) in association with subhepatic appendicitis. Providers should be aware elevated serum lipase levels may be due to conditions other than pancreatitis and further evaluation should be considered if the elements of the clinical picture are incongruent.