The Jeddah tool. A health risk assessment framework for mass gatherings

Healthcare policies, precautionary measures and outcomes of mass gathering events in the era of COVID-19 pandemic: Expedited review

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, several countries suspended or restricted mass gathering (MG) events to mitigate the risk of superspreading events. Prohibiting MGs aimed to lessen the likelihood of highly infectious persons coming into close contact with many others. Now that the world has opened its doors wide and removed most of precautionary measures, many questions arise. In this review, we aimed to summarize the current evidence regarding the policies and regulations that were implemented for the safe return of MG events. Besides, we highlighted the impact of the return of MG events during 2021 on the trajectory of COVID-19 spread. Canceling MG events can carry religious, societal, economic, and public negative consequences necessitating the safe return of these events. The experience with the COVID-19 pandemic was the foundation for the recommendations for the safe conduction of MG events during the pandemic by international public health bodies. When policymakers adequately applied precautionary measures and strategic approaches, we witnessed the safe holding of huge MG events without aggravating the COVID-19 situation or increasing the number of new cases beyond the capacity and readiness of the national healthcare system.

COVID-19 Among Omani Pilgrim Returnees From the Ashura Mass Gathering

Background The annual Ashura pilgrimage is a mass Islamic gathering during which millions of worshippers converge in the city of Karbala in Iraq. We report on the incidence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Omani pilgrims returning from Karbala in the month of Muharram (August) 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology This is a retrospective study using an electronic, self-completed, and Arab-language survey, composed of 17 questions, that was distributed to all pilgrims returning from Karbala. Participation was voluntary, and consent with confidentiality was obtained. Data on the demographics including sex, COVID-19 vaccination record, type of vaccine, duration of stay, compliance with wearing a face mask, using hand sanitization, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus before the departure from Oman, upon the return to Oman, and on the eighth post-quarantine day were collected. The responses were collected from the period between August 28, 2021, and September 25, 2022. Statistical association and analysis were performed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software (IBM SPSS Statistics, Armonk, NY). Results Out of 250 pilgrims, 139 responded to the survey. Fifty-two participants (37.4%) were males, and 87 (63.6%) were females. None of the pilgrims had positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR results before their departure from Oman. Only four pilgrims (2.9%) were detected positive on PCR by the end of a compulsory quarantine on the eighth day after arrival to Oman. No hospital admissions were recorded. The vast majority of the pilgrims were vaccinated with two doses of COVID-19 vaccination, while some few pilgrims were not vaccinated at all. Most of the pilgrims were also compliant with mask wearing, and just over half the pilgrims were compliant with hand sanitization. No significant statistical association was found between contracting SARS-CoV-2 virus infection and taking SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, the number of vaccination doses, having had COVID-19 before, wearing a mask, or compliance with hand sanitization. Conclusion The incidence of COVID-19 cases among pilgrims returning from Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic was low. No significant difference was noted between pilgrims vaccinated and compliant with the protective measures and those who were not vaccinated or compliant. Herd immunity could be a possible explanation for the low incidence of COVID-19 infection. Larger studies are needed to investigate the incidence of COVID-19 in Ashura pilgrims.

Hajj 2021: Role of mitigation measures for health security

PURPOSE

After the impressive results of the 2020 Hajj management, Saudi authorities decided to expand the quota to 60,000 pilgrims in 2021, which resulted in a convenient and successful experience.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective pre and post-study study conducted on all pilgrims attending the 2021 Hajj using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test surveillance with paired-swab samples (pre-Hajj and post-Hajj) to evaluate the risk potential of COVID-19 among Hajj pilgrims, the effectiveness of preventive measures and the potential effect of the Hajj ritual as a huge mass gathering on the epidemiological situation of the Saudi Arabian population.

RESULT

Forty-one cases had positive COVID-19 infections out of a total of 58,428 pilgrims who attended the 2021 Hajj season, as detected by nonmandatory pre- and post-Hajj PCR. Notably, the 2021 Hajj season achieved a decreasing leg of the COVID-19 pandemic curve. The adjusted incidence rate in KSA from July 11th to August 7th ranged from 19 to 24 cases per 100,000 population. In contrast, the incidence rate for the same duration in Hajj ranged from 3 to 7 cases per 100,000 pilgrims.

CONCLUSION

The Saudi mitigation plan ensured the safety of pilgrims and healthcare workers for Hajj, successfully limited the risk of COVID-19 transmission inside and contributed to global health security. The success story of Hajj in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic represents a successful model for planning, achieving and managing future mass gatherings by integrating technology with global and national health policies and public health measures.

Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage

Background

Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals.

Methods

We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.

Results

The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.

Conclusions

This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.

Structural Modeling on the Determinants of Effectiveness of SOPs Containing COVID-19 in Mass Gatherings

The study is aimed to analyze the determinants of the effectiveness of SOPs in mass gatherings for containing COVID-19. The overall design of the study involves a literature review, data collection by field survey, structural modeling, and analysis. The study is built on the experts' opinion of a focus group (representing people who recently participated in and are responsible for mass gatherings). The study uses the discussion of the literature review to identify the determinants, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) for developing and analyzing a structural model, and Matrice d'Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquée a un Classement (MICMAC) for corroboration of results of the ISM/classification of determinants. From the literature review, a list of determinants is generated and verified by a panel of experts. The results of the ISM revealed that the determinants “legal environment of the country,” “practicability of SOPs,” “perceived benefit of adapting SOPs,” and “possibilities of avoiding gathering” occupied the top of the model, therefore, they are less critical determinants, whereas “nature of gathering” occupied the bottom of the model, and is thus the most critical determinant. The remaining determinants form the middle of the model, and are therefore moderately severe. The results of MICMAC show that the determinant “perceived benefit of adapting SOPs” is dependent, “nature of gathering” is independent, and all others are linked. The results of MICMAC implicitly substantiate the findings of the ISM. The overall results of the study show that “nature of gathering” is the key determinant. This research does not require a priori theory since it is a theory-building study that uses an inductive approach. It is based on real data and it is useful for local authorities, organizers, participants (attendees/visitors) of mass gatherings, health officials/regulators, researchers, and the community at large. This study has fundamental importance for planning and preparing for such events while ensuring the minimum risk of COVID-19 transmission.

Mass Gathering Medicine in Soccer Leagues: A Review and Creation of the SALEM Tool

Potential risks for public health incidents, outbreaks, and casualties are inferred at association football events, especially if event organizers have not taken appropriate preventative measures. This review explores the potential risks imposed by mass gathering (MG) football events, with particular emphasis on tools and methodologies to manage the risks of football MG events. Effective planning and implementation of MGs along with the mitigation of risks related to people’s health require special attention to all potential threats, especially in frequent and recurring MG events such as football leagues. The well-being of all participants can be compromised by ignoring a single risk. Healthcare systems should cooperate with all stakeholders and organizations who are involved in MG management and response. Provision of services during MG or a disaster must be performed by trained personnel or entities that have full access to available resources in accessible publicly known locations at the MG event site. Several MG assessment tools were developed worldwide; however, to adapt to the Saudi context, SALEM tool was developed to provide a guide for MG planning and assessment. SALEM assesses the risks of MG events with scores that help to categorize the risk of MG events by offering recommendations for required resources.

Novel Respiratory Viruses in the Context of Mass-Gathering Events: A Systematic Review to Inform Event Planning from a Health Perspective

BACKGROUND

Mass-gathering events (MGEs) occur regularly throughout the world. As people congregate at MGEs, there is an increased risk of transmission of communicable diseases. Novel respiratory viruses, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-1 (SARS-CoV-1), Influenza A Virus Subtype H1N1 Strain 2009 (H1N1pdm09), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), or Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), may require specific infection prevention and control strategies to minimize the risk of transmission when planning MGEs. This literature review aimed to identify and analyze papers relating to novel respiratory viruses with pandemic potential and to inform MGE planning.

METHOD

This paper used a systematic literature review method. Various health care databases were searched using keywords relating to MGEs and novel respiratory viruses. Information was extracted from identified papers into various tables for analysis. The analysis identified infection prevention and control strategies used at MGEs to inform planning before, during, and following events.

RESULTS

In total, 27 papers met the criteria for inclusion. No papers were identified regarding SARS-CoV-1, while the remainder reported on H1N1pdm09 (n = 9), MERS-CoV (n = 15), and SARS-CoV-2 (n = 3). Various before, during, and after event mitigation strategies were identified that can be implemented for future events.

CONCLUSIONS

This literature review provided an overview of the novel respiratory virus epidemiology at MGEs alongside related public health mitigation strategies that have been implemented at these events. This paper also discusses the health security of event participants and host communities in the context of cancelling, postponing, and modifying events due to a novel respiratory virus. In particular, ways to recommence events incorporating various mitigation strategies are outlined.

Guidance for Health Risk Assessment at Recurrent Mass Gatherings: The Jeddah Tool Framework

A wide range of natural and man-made hazards increases the health risks at mass gatherings (MGs). Building on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed the Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (H-EDRM) framework to strengthen preparedness, response, and recovery from health emergencies in the communities and emergency-prone settings, such as MGs. The Jeddah tool is derived from the H-EDRM framework as an all-hazard MG risk assessment tool, which provides a benchmark for monitoring progress made in capacity strengthening over a given period for recurrent MGs. Additionally, it introduces a reputational risk assessment domain to complement vulnerability and capacity assessment matrixes. This paper describes the key elements of the Jeddah tool to improve the understanding of health risk assessment at MGs in the overarching contexts of health emergencies and disaster risk reduction, in line with international goals.

COVID-19 social distancing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Bold measures in the face of political, economic, social and religious challenges

Social distancing at its various levels has been a key measure to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. The implementation of strict measures for social distancing is challenging, including in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) due to its level of urbanization, its social and religious norms and its annual hosting of high visibility international religious mass gatherings. KSA started introducing decisive social distancing measures early before the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the Kingdom. These ranged from suspension or cancelations of religious, entertainment and sporting mass gatherings and events such as the Umrah, temporary closure of educational establishments and mosques and postponing all non-essential gatherings, to imposing a curfew. These measures were taken in spite of their socio-economic, political and religious challenges in the interest of public and global health. The effect of these actions on the epidemic curve of the Kingdom and on the global fight against COVID-19 remains to be seen. However, given the current COVID-19 situation, further bold and probably unpopular measures are likely to be introduced in the future.