Notes from the Field: Absence of Asymptomatic Mumps Virus Shedding Among Vaccinated College Students During a Mumps Outbreak - Washington, February-June 2017

An individual level infectious disease model in the presence of uncertainty from multiple, imperfect diagnostic tests

Bayesian compartmental infectious disease models yield important inference on disease transmission by appropriately accounting for the dynamics and uncertainty of infection processes. In addition to estimating transition probabilities and reproductive numbers, these statistical models allow researchers to assess the probability of disease risk and quantify the effectiveness of interventions. These infectious disease models rely on data collected from all individuals classified as positive based on various diagnostic tests. In infectious disease testing, however, such procedures produce both false-positives and false-negatives at varying rates depending on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests being used. We propose a novel Bayesian spatio-temporal infectious disease modeling framework that accounts for the additional uncertainty in the diagnostic testing and classification process that provides estimates of the important transmission dynamics of interest to researchers. The method is applied to data on the 2006 mumps epidemic in Iowa, in which over 6,000 suspected mumps cases were tested using a buccal or oral swab specimen, a urine specimen, and/or a blood specimen. Although all procedures are believed to have high specificities, the sensitivities can be low and vary depending on the timing of the test as well as the vaccination status of the individual being tested.

Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China

Objectives

Despite the adoption of a new childhood immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019 and to assess the transmissibility of mumps virus among the whole population and different subgroups by regions and age groups.

Methods

The Non-age-specific and age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) models were fitted to actual mumps incidence data. The time-varying reproduction number (R _t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmissibility.

Results

From 2005 to 2019, a total of 57,424 cases of mumps were reported in Jilin Province. The incidence of mumps was the highest in people aged 5 to 9 years (77.37 per 100,000). The two SEPIAR models fitted the reported data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R _t ) calculated by the two SEPIAR models were 1.096 (range: 1.911 × 10^-5-2.192) and 1.074 (range: 0.033-2.114) respectively. The age-specific SEPIAR model was more representative of the actual epidemic of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005-2019.

Conclusions

For mumps control, it is recommended that mumps-containing vaccines (MuCV) coverage be increased nationwide in the 5-9 years age group, either by a mumps vaccine alone or by a combination of vaccines such as measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The coverage of vaccines in Jilin Province should be continuously expanded to establish solid immunity in the population. China needs to redefine the optimal time interval for MuCV immunization.

Repeated introductions and intensive community transmission fueled a mumps virus outbreak in Washington State

In 2016/2017, Washington State experienced a mumps outbreak despite high childhood vaccination rates, with cases more frequently detected among school-aged children and members of the Marshallese community. We sequenced 166 mumps virus genomes collected in Washington and other US states, and traced mumps introductions and transmission within Washington. We uncover that mumps was introduced into Washington approximately 13 times, primarily from Arkansas, sparking multiple co-circulating transmission chains. Although age and vaccination status may have impacted transmission, our data set could not quantify their precise effects. Instead, the outbreak in Washington was overwhelmingly sustained by transmission within the Marshallese community. Our findings underscore the utility of genomic data to clarify epidemiologic factors driving transmission and pinpoint contact networks as critical for mumps transmission. These results imply that contact structures and historic disparities may leave populations at increased risk for respiratory virus disease even when a vaccine is effective and widely used.

Upward Trends of Parotitis and Mumps in Atlanta over a Decade

Rising rates of mumps in Georgia have been reported. We hypothesize that the incidence of parotitis and mumps presenting to Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta (CHOA) has increased over the past decade among immunized children. Retrospective chart reviews were conducted using ICD9/10-codes for parotitis and mumps from January 2007 to December 2017. Data on demographics, vaccination status, labs, management and disposition were collected. 1017 parotitis cases were diagnosed; an upward trend in incidence occurred over time. Mumps testing was done in 47 (4.6%) parotitis cases; 9 mumps cases were identified, with 6 diagnosed in 2017. Seven patients (78%) were fully vaccinated. Median age for mumps was 13 years. Few symptoms differentiate mumps from non-mumps-parotitis. The incidence of parotitis and mumps in children has increased since 2007 in the Atlanta area, reflecting a nationwide trend. Mumps is likely underreported as rates of testing are low, and should be considered in children with parotitis regardless of vaccination history.

Mumps Outbreaks in Vaccinated Populations-Is It Time to Re-assess the Clinical Efficacy of Vaccines?

History illustrates the remarkable public health impact of mass vaccination, by dramatically improving life expectancy and reducing the burden of infectious diseases and co-morbidities worldwide. It has been perceived that if an individual adhered to the MMR vaccine schedule that immunity to mumps virus (MuV) would be lifelong. Recent mumps outbreaks in individuals who had received two doses of the Measles Mumps Rubella (MMR) vaccine has challenged the efficacy of the MMR vaccine. However, clinical symptoms, complications, viral shedding and transmission associated with mumps infection has been shown to be reduced in vaccinated individuals, demonstrating a benefit of this vaccine. Therefore, the question of what constitutes a good mumps vaccine and how its impact is assessed in this modern era remains to be addressed. Epidemiology of the individuals most affected by the outbreaks (predominantly young adults) and variance in the circulating MuV genotype have been well-described alluding to a collection of influences such as vaccine hesitancy, heterogeneous vaccine uptake, primary, and/or secondary vaccine failures. This review aims to discuss in detail the interplay of factors thought to be contributing to the current mumps outbreaks seen in highly vaccinated populations. In addition, how mumps diagnoses has progressed and impacted the understanding of mumps infection since a mumps vaccine was first developed, the limitations of current laboratory tests in confirming protection in vaccinated individuals and how vaccine effectiveness is quantified are also considered. By highlighting knowledge gaps within this area, this state-of-the-art review proposes a change of perspective regarding the impact of a vaccine in a highly vaccinated population from a clinical, diagnostic and public perspective, highlighting a need for a paradigm shift on what is considered vaccine immunity.

The Importance of MMR Immunization in the United States

Despite the established safety and efficacy of the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine after almost 50 years of widespread use, the United States is encountering higher levels of measles and mumps disease than has occurred for years. Return of disease threatens the health of those who remain unimmunized by choice as well as those who are immunized appropriately but experience loss of vaccine-induced immunity. The solution to continued threats of illness caused by these untreatable but readily preventable diseases is compliance with recommendations for administration of the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine. Here we examine trends in the epidemiology of measles, mumps, and rubella in recent years and consider the consequences of loss of protective immunity within our country.

Genetic characterization of mumps viruses associated with the resurgence of mumps in the United States: 2015-2017

Despite high coverage with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine in the United States, outbreaks of mumps occur in close contact settings such as schools, colleges, and camps. Starting in late 2015, outbreaks were reported from several universities, and by the end of 2017, greater than 13,800 cases had been reported nation-wide. In 2013, the CDC and the Association of Public Health Laboratories contracted four Vaccine Preventable Diseases Reference Centers (VPD-RCs) to perform real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) to detect mumps RNA in clinical samples and to determine the genotype. Twelve genotypes of mumps virus are currently recognized by the World Health Organization, and the standard protocol for genotyping requires sequencing the entire gene coding for the small hydrophobic (SH) protein. Phylogenetic analysis of the 1862 mumps samples genotyped from 2015 through 2017 showed that the overall diversity of genotypes detected was low. Only 0.8 % of the sequences were identified as genotypes C, H, J, or K, and 0.5 % were identified as vaccine strains in genotypes A or N, while most sequences (98.7 %) were genotype G. The majority of the genotype G sequences could be included into one of two large groups with identical SH sequences. Within genotype G, a small number of phylogenetically significant outlier sequences were associated with epidemiologically distinct chains of transmission. These results demonstrate that molecular and epidemiologic data can be used to track transmission pathways of mumps virus; however, the limited diversity of the SH sequences may be insufficient for resolving transmission in all outbreaks.

Decreased humoral immunity to mumps in young adults immunized with MMR vaccine in childhood

In the past decade, multiple mumps outbreaks have occurred in the United States, primarily in close-contact, high-density settings such as colleges, with a high attack rate among young adults, many of whom had the recommended 2 doses of mumps-measles-rubella (MMR) vaccine. Waning humoral immunity and the circulation of divergent wild-type mumps strains have been proposed as contributing factors to mumps resurgence. Blood samples from 71 healthy 18- to 23-year-old college students living in a non-outbreak area were assayed for antibodies and memory B cells (MBCs) to mumps, measles, and rubella. Seroprevalence rates of mumps, measles, and rubella determined by IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were 93, 93, and 100%, respectively. The index standard ratio indicated that the concentration of IgG was significantly lower for mumps than rubella. High IgG avidity to mumps Enders strain was detected in sera of 59/71 participants who had sufficient IgG levels. The frequency of circulating mumps-specific MBCs was 5 to 10 times lower than measles and rubella, and 10% of the participants had no detectable MBCs to mumps. Geometric mean neutralizing antibody titers (GMTs) by plaque reduction neutralization to the predominant circulating wild-type mumps strain (genotype G) were 6-fold lower than the GMTs against the Jeryl Lynn vaccine strain (genotype A). The majority of the participants (80%) received their second MMR vaccine ≥10 years prior to study participation. Additional efforts are needed to fully characterize B and T cell immune responses to mumps vaccine and to develop strategies to improve the quality and durability of vaccine-induced immunity.

Investigation and management of a large community mumps outbreak among young adults in Toronto, Canada, January 2017-February 2018

Background

In 2017, a mumps outbreak was identified in a cohort of 18-34 year olds in Toronto, Canada.

Objective

To describe a large community mumps outbreak in an urban centre from January 2017 to February 2018 among young adults.

Methods

A broad range of interventions were implemented in an attempt to reach the target audience; including case and contact management, vaccination clinics at schools and clinicians' offices, school exclusions, bar inspections, traditional communication strategies (including health care provider updates and posters) and newer communication strategies (including three sequential social media campaigns).

Results

A total of 143 cases of mumps were identified. Although cases' ages ranged from three to 72 years, most (76%) were 18-34 year olds, many of whom had frequented bars and local food establishments in downtown Toronto. 84% (n=120) of the cases were community-acquired. Only 16% (n=23) of the cases reported exposures in schools and post-secondary school institutions. Of those, 39% (n=56) of cases had an unknown vaccination history; 34% (n=49) were either not vaccinated or partially vaccinated with one dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine; and 27% (n=38) had received the recommended two doses of mumps vaccine. Determining vaccination status was a challenge, in part due to the lack of a registry. Vaccination was recommended when subjects were known to have had fewer than two doses of vaccine or had an unknown vaccination status. A social media campaign, emphasizing the risk of social activities if not protected from the mumps, yielded over 500,000 impressions from Facebook and Twitter messages and ads and an impressive engagement rate of between 1% and 10x%.

Conclusion

This was the largest mumps outbreak in Toronto in over 20 years. Among young adults, ongoing social media and traditional communication campaigns can contribute to the control of community mumps outbreaks. Encouraging vaccine uptake is desirable, but without a vaccine registry it is difficult to assess vaccination coverage among adults. Susceptible cohorts of young adults who were not adequately vaccinated pose a risk for future outbreaks. Given that almost 30% of the mumps cases were fully vaccinated with two doses of mumps-containing vaccine, even two doses may not provide complete protection.