Prediction of prognosis by markers in community-acquired pneumonia

Red cell distribution width as a prognostic marker for complications of community-acquired pneumonia in children: a comparison with Proadrenomedullin and Copeptin

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children; so, early identification of patients with CAP, who are at risk of complications or high mortality, is very critical to identify patients who need early admission to the intensive care unit.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

To explore the prognostic value of Red Cell Distribution Width (RDW), Proadrenomedullin and Copeptin in the prediction of complicated CAP in children.

METHODS

99 children were enrolled in the study, which was done at the Pediatric Department of Minia University Hospital. Measurement of serum Proadrenomedullin, Copeptin, and RDW was done to all participating children in the first 24 h of admission. Assessment of the severity of CAP was done using the Pediatric Respiratory Severity Score (PRESS).

RESULTS

The values of RDW, Proadrenomedullin, and Copeptin were significantly higher in the complicated CAP group than in the uncomplicated one (P value < 0.01). There were significant positive correlations between RDW and Proadrenomedullin with PRESS (r 0.56 for both). For the prediction of complications, RDW at cutoff point > 17.4, has 77.7% of sensitivity and 98.6% of specificity, followed by Pro ADM at cutoff point > 5.1 nmol/L, of 74% of sensitivity and 90.2% of specificity. For the prediction of mortality, RDW at cutoff point > 17.4 has 81.25% of sensitivity and 89.16% of specificity.

CONCLUSION

The RDW is a reliable predictor of poor outcomes in pediatric CAP.

Cardiovascular Complications in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is accountable for high mortality in both pediatric and adult populations worldwide, about one-third of hospitalized patients pass away within a year of being discharged from the facility. The high mortality and morbidity rates are closely related to cardiovascular complications that are consequent or concomitant to the acute episode of pneumonia. An updated perspective on the major pathophysiological mechanisms, prevalence, risk factors, outcomes, and relevant treatments of cardiovascular events in CAP patients is provided in the current study. It is possible to evaluate the pathophysiology of cardiac disease in this population based on plaque-related events, such as acute myocardial infarction, or events unrelated to plaque, such as arrhythmias and heart failure. With an absolute rate of cardiovascular problems ranging broadly from 10% to 30%, CAP raises the risk of both plaque-related and plaque-unrelated events. Both in- and out-patients may experience these issues at admission, throughout hospitalization, or even up to a year following discharge. At long-term follow-up, cardiac events account for more than 30% of deaths in CAP patients, making them a significant cause of mortality. If patients at risk for cardiac events are stratified, diagnostic tools, monitoring, and preventive measures may be applied to these patients. A prospective evaluation of cardioprotective treatments is urgently required from a research point of view.

Sphingosine-1-phosphate and CRP as potential combination biomarkers in discrimination of COPD with community-acquired pneumonia and acute exacerbation of COPD

Background

 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a significant public health concern. The patients with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) and pneumonia have similar clinical presentations. The use of conventional diagnostic markers, such as complete blood count with differential and C-reactive protein (CRP), is the current mainstream method for differentiating clinically relevant pneumonia from other mimics. However, those conventional methods have suboptimal sensitivity and specificity for patients with a clinical suspicion of infection. The limitations often cause the ambiguity of the initiation of antibiotic treatment. Recently, our pilot study suggested that the patients with pneumonia have significantly higher plasma Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) levels than controls. The initial findings suggest that plasma S1P is a potential biomarker for predicting prognosis in pneumonia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of S1P and CRP for discriminating COPD with pneumonia and AECOPD in an Emergency Department (ED) setting.

Methods

 Patients diagnosed with AECOPD or COPD with pneumonia were recruited from the Emergency Department of Wan Fang Hospital. The clinical data, demographics, and blood samples were collected upon ED admission. The concentration of plasma S1P was measured by ELISA.

Results

 Thirty-nine patients with AECOPD and 78 with COPD plus pneumonia were enrolled in this observational study. The levels of blood S1P and CRP were significantly higher in patients with COPD plus CAP compared to those in AE COPD patients. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for the S1P and CRP for distinguishing between patients with COPD plus CAP and AECOPD is 0.939 (95% CI: 0.894–0.984) and 0.886 (95% CI: 0.826–0.945), whereas the combination of S1P and CRP yielded a value of 0.994 (95% CI: 0.897–1.000). By comparing with CRP or S1P, combining CRP and S1P had significantly higher AUC value for differentiating between the COPD with pneumonia group and the AECOPD group.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that S1P is a potential diagnostic biomarker in distinguishing COPD with CAP from AECOPD. Additionally, the diagnostic ability of S1P can be improved when used in combination with CRP.

Hot topics and current controversies in community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infectious diseases, as well as a major cause of death both in developed and developing countries, and it remains a challenge for physicians around the world. Several guidelines have been published to guide clinicians in how to diagnose and take care of patients with CAP. However, there are still many areas of debate and uncertainty where research is needed to advance patient care and improve clinical outcomes. In this review we highlight current hot topics in CAP and present updated evidence around these areas of controversy.

Community-acquired pneumonia is the most frequent cause of infectious death worldwide; however, there are several areas of controversy that should be addressed to improve patient care. This review presents the available data on these topics.http://bit.ly/2ShnH7A

Outcome prediction using the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score combined with procalcitonin for influenza patients

BACKGROUND

Severe influenza is often associated with bacterial coinfection and can trigger sepsis, which increases the severity, complexity and mortality of the disease. To determine an effective method for predicting 28-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with influenza, we investigated the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, procalcitonin (PCT) and other relevant biomarkers.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, observational, monocentric study, and the endpoint was 28-day mortality. Independent predictors were identified and a new combination predictive model was created both by logistic regression, and the model was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

A total of 364 consecutive ED admitted patients with influenza were enrolled and 45 patients died within 28 days. For predicting 28-day mortality, the MEDS score and PCT were independent predictors with adjusted odds ratio of 1.318 (95% CI 1.206-1.439) and 1.038 (95% CI 1.010-1.065), and with AUCs of 0.817 (95% CI 0.756-0.878) and 0.793 (95% CI 0.725-0.861), respectively. The new combination of the MEDS score with PCT significantly improved the efficacy for predicting 28-day mortality with an AUC of 0.857 (95% CI 0.809-0.905), and was superior to the SOFA score with an AUC of 0.837 (95% CI 0.779-0.894).

CONCLUSION

The MEDS score and PCT, especially when combined, perform well for predicting mortality of ED admitted patients with influenza.

Early prediction of treatment failure in severe community-acquired pneumonia: The PRoFeSs score

PURPOSE

To identify a single/panel of biomarkers and to provide a point score that, after 48 h of treatment, could early predict treatment failure at fifth day of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Single-center, prospective cohort study of 107 ICU patients with SCAP. Primary outcome included death or absence of improvement in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by ≥2 points within 5 days of treatment. Biomarkers were evaluated within 12 h of first antibiotic dose (D1) and 48 h after the first assessment (D3).

RESULTS

A model based on Charlson's score and a panel of biomarkers (procalcitonin on D1 and D3, B-natriuretic peptide on D1, D-dimer and lactate on D3) had good discrimination for primary outcome in both derivation (AUC 0.82) and validation (AUC 0.76) samples and was well calibrated (X² = 0.98; df = 1; p = .32). A point score system (PRoFeSs score) built on the estimates of regression coefficients presented good discrimination (AUC 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval 0.72-0.89) for primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In SCAP, a combination of biomarkers measured at admission and 48 h later may early predict treatment failure. PRoFeSs score may recognize patients with poor short-term prognosis.

Circulating sphingosine-1-phosphate as a prognostic biomarker for community-acquired pneumonia

Early determination of the severity of Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) is essential for better disease prognosis. Current predictors are suboptimal, and their clinical utility remains to be defined, highlighting the need for developing biomarkers with efficacious prognostic value. Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) is a bioactive sphingolipid with a documented regulatory role in immune defense and maintenance of endothelial barrier integrity. For early diagnose of CAP and recognition of severe CAP patients, we conduct this pilot study to access the potential utility of the circulating S1P in an Emergency department setting. In the prospective study, plasma S1P levels were quantified in healthy controls and patients with CAP. Also, their discriminating power was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The association between S1P levels and disease severity indices was assessed by Spearman correlation and logistic regression tests. Patients with CAP had significantly higher plasma S1P levels than healthy individuals (CAP: 27.54 ng/ml, IQR = 14.37-49.99 ng/ml; Controls: 10.58 ng/ml, IQR = 4.781-18.91 ng/ml; p < 0.0001). S1P levels were inversely correlated with disease severity in patients with CAP. Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis, the plasma S1P concentrations showed significant predicting power for mortality (OR: 0.909; CI: 0.801-0.985; p < 0.05), intensive care unit admission (OR: 0.89; CI: 0.812-0.953; p < 0.005) and long hospital stay (OR: 0.978; CI: 0.961-0.992; p < 0.005). Interestingly, significantly elevated levels of S1P were noted in patients who received methylprednisolone treatment during hospitalization. These results suggest that S1P may be associated with the pathogenesis of CAP and may have prognostic utility in CAP and its therapy, especially in the Emergency Department setting.

Footprints of Sepsis Framed Within Community Acquired Pneumonia in the Blood Transcriptome

We analyzed the blood transcriptome of sepsis framed within community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and characterized its molecular and cellular heterogeneity in terms of functional modules of co-regulated genes with impact for the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. Our results showed that CAP severity is associated with immune suppression owing to T-cell exhaustion and HLA and chemokine receptor deactivation, endotoxin tolerance, macrophage polarization, and metabolic conversion from oxidative phosphorylation to glycolysis. We also found footprints of host's response to viruses and bacteria, altered levels of mRNA from erythrocytes and platelets indicating coagulopathy that parallel severity of sepsis and survival. Finally, our data demonstrated chromatin re-modeling associated with extensive transcriptional deregulation of chromatin modifying enzymes, which suggests the extensive changes of DNA methylation with potential impact for marker selection and functional characterization. Based on the molecular footprints identified, we propose a novel stratification of CAP cases into six groups differing in the transcriptomic scores of CAP severity, interferon response, and erythrocyte mRNA expression with impact for prognosis. Our analysis increases the resolution of transcriptomic footprints of CAP and reveals opportunities for selecting sets of transcriptomic markers with impact for translation of omics research in terms of patient stratification schemes and sets of signature genes.

Poverty as an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: A study in a developing country population

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most severe lower respiratory tract infections with a high in-hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the socioeconomic and medical risk factors affecting the prognosis of acute pneumonia. The results of this study can mention the value of socioeconomic backgrounds like poverty and illiteracy in clinical practice, even in a well-known biological phenomenon (eg acute pneumonia).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, all admitted patients to a tertiary teaching hospital with a diagnosis of community acquired pneumonia in a 12-month period were enrolled. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, underlying conditions, clinical manifestations and para-clinical test results at admission registered prospectively. A logistic regression model was conducted using in-hospital mortality as the dependent variable.

RESULTS

A total of 621 patients was included in this study. Among them, 47 patients (7.6%) died during the hospitalisation period. In multiple logistic regression analysis, pleural effusion, a higher CURB-65 score, hyponatremia, hyperglycaemia and poverty (being in the lower economic class) were identified as independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in community-acquired pneumonia.

CONCLUSION

Numerous factors can influence the prognosis of CAP. In addition to the CURB-65 score and some other medical risk factors, socioeconomic backgrounds can also affect the early outcome in CAP. In this study, being in the lower economic class (as an indicator of poverty) is interpreted as an independent risk factor for a poor prognosis in CAP.

Risk stratification and prediction value of procalcitonin and clinical severity scores for community-acquired pneumonia in ED

OBJECTIVE

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common presentation to the emergency department (ED) and has high mortality rates. The aim of our study is to investigate the risk stratification and prognostic prediction value of precalcitonin (PCT) and clinical severity scores on patients with CAP in ED.

METHODS

226 consecutive adult patients with CAP admitted in ED of a tertiary teaching hospital were enrolled. Demographic information and clinical parameters including PCT levels were analyzed. CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA scores were calculated and compared between the severe CAP (SCAP) and non-severe CAP (NSCAP) group or the death and survival group. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 28-day mortality were calculated for each predictor using cut-off values. Logistic regression models and area under the curve (AUC) analysis were performed to compare the performance of predictors.

RESULTS

Fifty-one patients were classified as SCAP and forty-nine patients died within 28days. There was significant difference between either SCAP and NSCAP group or death and survival group in PCT level and CURB65, PSI, SOFA, qSOFA scores (p < 0.001). The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting SCAP were 0.875, 0.805, 0.810, 0.852 and 0.724, respectively. PCT is superior in predicting SCAP and the models combining PCT and SOFA demonstrated superior performance to those of PCT or the CAP severity score alone. The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting 28-day mortality were 0.822, 0.829, 0.813, 0.913 and 0.717, respectively. SOFA achieved the highest AUC and the combination of PCT and SOFA had the highest superiority over other combinations in predicting 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Serum PCT is a valuable single predictor for SCAP. SOFA is superior in prediction of 28-day mortality. Combination of PCT and SOFA could improve the performance of single predictors. More further studies with larger sample size are warranted to validate our results.

An Elevated Glycemic Gap is Associated with Adverse Outcomes in Diabetic Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

Acute hyperglycemia is a frequent finding in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The prognostic role of hyperglycemia in diabetic patients with AMI remains controversial. We retrospectively reviewed patients' medical records to obtain demographic data, clinical presentation, major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), several clinical scores and laboratory data, including the plasma glucose level at initial presentation and HbA1c levels. The glycemic gap, which represents changes in serum glucose levels during the index event, was calculated from the glucose level upon ED admission minus the HbA1c-derived average glucose (ADAG). We enrolled 331 patients after the review of medical records. An elevated glycemic gap between admission serum glucose levels and ADAG were associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients. The glycemic gap showed superior discriminative power regarding the development of MACEs when compared with the admission glucose level. The calculation of the glycemic gap may increase the discriminative powers of established clinical scoring systems in diabetic patients presenting to the ED with AMI. In conclusion, the glycemic gap could be used as an adjunct parameter to assess the severity and prognosis of diabetic patients presenting with AMI. However, the usefulness of the glycemic gap should be further explored in prospective longitudinal studies.

Relevant Cytokines in the Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of infectious death in the world. Immune dysregulation during acute lung infection plays a role in lung injury and the systemic inflammatory response. Cytokines seem to be major players in severe lung infection cases. Here, we present a review of published papers in the last 3 years regarding this topic. The cytokine response during pneumonia is different in bacterial vs viral infections; some of these cytokines correlate with clinical severity scales such as CURB65 or SOFA. Treatment focused in the cytokine environment is an interesting area that could impact the prognosis of CAP. Some of the agents that have been studied as co-adjuvant therapy are corticosteroids, macrolides, and linezolid, but anyone of those have shown a clear or proven efficacy or have been recommended as a part of the standard of care for CAP. More studies designed to define the role of immunomodulatory agents, such as co-adjuvant therapy in pneumonia, are needed.

Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality after Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A 5-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND

Contributors to long-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remain unclear, with little attention paid to pneumonia etiology. We examined long-term survival, causes of death, and risk factors for long-term mortality in adult patients who had been hospitalized for CAP, with emphasis on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological characteristics.

METHODS

Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients admitted in 2008-2011 to a general hospital with CAP were prospectively recruited and followed up. Patients who died during hospital stay were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Extensive microbiological work-up was performed to establish the etiology of CAP in 63% of patients. Mortality data were obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of 259 hospital survivors of CAP (median age 66 years), 79 (30.5%) died over a median of 1,804 days (range 1-2,520 days). Cumulative 5-year survival rate was 72.9% (95% CI 67.4-78.4%). Standardized mortality ratio was 2.90 for men and 2.05 for women. The main causes of death were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), vascular diseases, and malignancy. Independent risk factors for death were the following (hazard ratio, 95% CI): age (1.83 per decade, 1.47-2.28), cardiovascular disease (2.63, 1.61-4.32), COPD (2.09, 1.27-3.45), immunocompromization (1.98, 1.17-3.37), and low serum albumin level at admission (0.75 per 5 g/L higher, 0.58-0.96), whereas active smoking was protective (0.32, 0.14-0.74); active smokers were younger than non-smokers (P < 0.001). Microbial etiology did not predict mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Results largely confirm substantial comorbidity-related 5-year mortality after hospitalization for CAP and the impact of several well-known risk factors for death, and extend previous findings on the prognostic value of serum albumin level at hospital admission. Pneumonia etiology had no prognostic value, but this remains to be substantiated by further studies using extensive diagnostic microbiological methods in the identification of causative agents of CAP.

Biomarkers for predicting short-term mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The pneumonia severity index and CURB-65 are risk assessment tools widely used in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, limitations in these prognostic scores have led to increasing interest in finding biomarkers that might provide additional information. To date, the role of these biomarkers has not been fully elucidated.

METHODS

We systematically searched the Medline, Web of Knowledge, Science Direct, and LILACS databases. We included studies that assessed the accuracy of biomarkers for the prediction of in-hospital or ≤30-day mortality, in hospitalized adults with CAP. Two independent investigators extracted patient and study characteristics, which were thereafter pooled using a random effects model. Relationships between sensitivity and specificity of biomarkers and prognostic scores were plotter using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

We included 24 articles and 2 databases from 1069 reviewed abstracts, which provided 10,319 patients for analysis. Reported mortality rates varied from 2.4% to 34.6%. The highest AUC values for predicting mortality were associated with pro-adrenomedullin (0.80) and prohormone forms of atrial natriuretic peptide (0.79), followed by cortisol (0.78), procalcitonin (0.75), copeptin (0.71), and C-reactive protein (0.62). There were no statistically significant differences between the AUCs of the studied biomarkers, other than for copeptin and C-reactive protein, which performed comparatively poorly. When compared with the CAP-specific scores, the AUCs were not significantly different from those of most biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified biomarkers are able to predict mortality with moderate to good accuracy in CAP. However, biomarkers have no clear advantage over CAP-specific scores for predicting mortality.

An Elevated Glycemic Gap is Associated With Adverse Outcomes in Diabetic Patients With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Several studies argue against the association between admission hyperglycemia and adverse outcomes in infected diabetic patients. When investigating the association, it is necessary to consider preexisting hyperglycemia. The objective of this study was to assess whether stress-induced hyperglycemia, determined by the glycemic gap between admission glucose levels and A1c-derived average glucose levels adversely affects outcomes in diabetic patients admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).We retrospectively analyzed the glycemic gap and adverse outcomes of diabetic patients hospitalized because of CAP from June 1, 2007 to August 31, 2012 in single medical center in Taiwan.A total of 203 patients admitted with principal diagnosis of CAP and available data of glycemic gap.Patients with glycemic gaps ≥40 mg/dL had greater AUROC values for the development of adverse outcomes compared with acute hyperglycemia and long-term glycemic controls. Patients with an elevated glycemic gap had an odds ratio of 3.84 for the incidence of combined adverse outcomes. Incorporation of the glycemic gap into pneumonia severity index, CURB-65 or SMART-COP scores, increased the discriminative performance of predicting the development of adverse outcomes.Glycemic gaps were associated with adverse outcomes of diabetic CAP patients. The discriminative performance of the calculated glycemic gaps was comparable with those of current clinical scoring systems and may further increase the AUROC of each system.