Cost-effectiveness of vaccinating adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in Germany

Health economic evaluation of introducing a PPSV23-based vaccination programme to adults aged 65 and above, and an extension to the 60-64 age group in Denmark

BACKGROUND

To estimate the health economic consequences of the recently introduced PPSV23 vaccination programme for persons aged 65+ in Denmark and of a potential extension of the programme to include persons aged 60-64 years.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A Markov model was adapted to the Danish healthcare setting to simulate the epidemiological and economic burden of invasive pneumococcal disease and non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia using information from published sources and Danish databases.

RESULTS

We found that the recent introduction of an age-based vaccination programme offering PPSV23 vaccination to the population of persons aged 65+ in Denmark will lead to a societal gain of EUR 72.0 million and prevent 19,707 cases of pneumococcal disease and 1,308 deaths per 1 million persons during the five-year study period.Similarly, we estimate that extending the programme to include persons aged 60-64 will lead to a gain of EUR 14.6 million per 1 million persons and prevent an additional 6,223 cases of pneumococcal disease and 185 deaths.

CONCLUSION

The recent introduction of the age-based vaccination programme offering PPSV23 vaccination to all persons aged 65+ in Denmark is cost-effective. This is also the case if the programme is extended to include persons aged 60-64.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine Program for the Elderly Aged 60 Years or Older in Shanghai, China

Background: The pneumococcal vaccine has been considered as the most effective measure to prevent pneumococcal diseases. In 2013, Shanghai launched a major public health program to vaccinate people aged 60 years or older with 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine (PPSV-23) free of charge. By the end of June 2020, a total of 1.56 million old people had been vaccinated free of charge. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PPSV-23 vaccination program in Shanghai from the health system perspective. Methods: According to the actual number of people aged 60 years or older with PPSV-23 vaccination in Shanghai from 2013 to 2018, a multi-cohort Markov model for life-time was developed to compare health and economic outcomes of vaccinated people vs. if they were not vaccinated for PPSV-23. Cost effectiveness was reported as incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER). A 5% discount rate was used for both costs and health outcomes. In addition, one-way sensitivity analysis was used to test the model's robustness. Results: By the end of 2018, a total of 1,091,967 people aged 60 years or older were vaccinated with PPSV-23 in Shanghai, China. Comparing with the unvaccinated circumstances, PPSV-23 vaccination would cost US $19.62 million more and receive an additional 10,321.3 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). PPSV-23 was associated with the ICER of $190.1 per QALY gained. The Results were sensitive to the variation of vaccine effectiveness against community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and disease incidence, mortality, and costs of CAP. In all sensitivity analysis, the PPSV-23 was economical. Conclusion: The PPSV-23 vaccination program in Shanghai was cost-effective. With the further development of the project, the administrative costs of the vaccine will be reduced, making it more cost-effective.

Indirect costs of adult pneumococcal disease and the productivity-based rate of return to the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for adults in Turkey

Productivity benefits of health technologies are ignored in typical economic evaluations from a health payer’s perspective, risking undervaluation. We conduct a productivity-based cost-benefit analysis from a societal perspective and estimate indirect costs of adult pneumococcal disease, vaccination benefits from the adult 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13 Adult), and rates of return to PCV13 Adult for a range of hypothetical vaccination costs. Our context is Turkey’s funding PCV13 for the elderly and for non-elderly adults with select comorbidities within the Ministry of Health’s National Immunization Program. We use a Markov model with one-year cycles. Indirect costs from death or disability equal the expected present discounted value of lifetime losses in the infected individual’s paid and unpaid work and in caregivers’ paid work. Vaccination benefits comprise averted indirect costs. Rates of return equal vaccination benefits divided by vaccination costs, minus one. Input parameters are from public data sources. We model comorbidities’ effects by scalar multiplication of the parameters of the general population. Indirect costs per treatment episode of inpatient community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), bacteremia, and meningitis – but not for outpatient CAP – approach or exceed Turkish per capita gross domestic product. Vaccination benefits equal $207.02 per vaccination in 2017 US dollars. The rate of return is positive for all hypothetical costs below this. Results are sensitive to herd effects from pediatric vaccination and vaccine efficacy rates. For a wide range of hypothetical vaccination costs, the rate of return compares favorably with those of other global development interventions with well-established strong investment cases.

Pneumococcal Disease: A Systematic Review of Health Utilities, Resource Use, Costs, and Economic Evaluations of Interventions

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal diseases cause substantial mortality, morbidity, and economic burden. Evidence on data inputs for economic evaluations of interventions targeting pneumococcal disease is critical.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize evidence on resource use, costs, health utilities, and cost-effectiveness for pneumococcal disease and associated interventions to inform future economic analyses.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EconLit, and Cochrane databases for peer-reviewed studies in English on pneumococcal disease that reported health utilities using direct or indirect valuation methods, resource use, costs, or cost-effectiveness of intervention programs, and summarized the evidence descriptively.

RESULTS

We included 383 studies: 9 reporting health utilities, 131 resource use, 160 economic costs of pneumococcal disease, 95 both resource use and costs, and 178 economic evaluations of pneumococcal intervention programs. Health state utility values ranged from 0 to 1 for both meningitis and otitis media and from 0.3 to 0.7 for both pneumonia and sepsis. Hospitalization was shortest for otitis media (range: 0.1-5 days) and longest for sepsis/septicemia (6-48). The main categories of costs reported were drugs, hospitalization, and household or employer costs. Resource use was reported in hospital length of stay and number of contacts with general practitioners. Costs and resource use significantly varied among population ages, disease conditions, and settings. Current vaccination programs for both adults and children, antibiotic use and outreach programs to promote vaccination, early disease detection, and educational programs are cost-effective in most countries.

CONCLUSION

This study has generated a comprehensive repository of health economic evidence on pneumococcal disease that can be used to inform future economic evaluations of pneumococcal disease intervention programs.

Cost Effectiveness of Elderly Pneumococcal Vaccination in Presence of Higher-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Childhood Vaccination: Systematic Literature Review with Focus on Methods and Assumptions

BACKGROUND

Previous systematic reviews concluded that pneumococcal vaccination in the elderly was cost effective. However, recently published economic evaluations state that it may not be cost effective when children are vaccinated with higher-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. The literature suggests that the outcomes of vaccination in the elderly are strongly influenced by the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the vaccine-type pneumococcal diseases (PD) and the impact of childhood vaccination on the vaccine-type PD incidence in the elderly, but the extent remains unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search of cost-effectiveness studies on vaccination in the elderly in the PubMed database starting from 2006. We included studies that consider the presence of a childhood vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) 10 and PCV13. We focus on methods and assumptions used in modeling VE and epidemiology of PD over time.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight economic evaluations underwent full-text review and data extraction. Thirteen were selected for quality assessment. The studies with a higher quality score provide evidence that vaccinating the elderly with PCV13 is not cost effective, when an ongoing rapid decline in the incidence of PCV13-type PD is modeled. A moderate persistence of PCV13 serotypes, in particular due to PCV10 childhood vaccination, makes vaccination of the elderly with PCV13 more attractive. There is no agreement that combining PCV13 with polysaccharide vaccine PPSV23 is cost effective. PPSV23 is attractive when it is effective against non-invasive PD.

CONCLUSION

Methodological approaches and assumptions in modeling VE and the indirect effects of childhood vaccination have a major impact on outcomes of decision-analytic models and cost-effectiveness estimates. Considering recently observed trends in the epidemiology of pneumococcal serotypes, there is currently inconclusive evidence regarding the cost effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination of the elderly due to lack of studies that model key serotypes such as serotype 3 separately from other groups of serotypes.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of revaccination and catch-up strategies with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in older adults in Japan

OBJECTIVE

In Japan, the National Immunization Program (NIP) includes PPV23 as the primary vaccination for adults and catch-up cohorts. The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases recommends revaccination for older adults who received primary vaccination ≥5 years earlier. The cost-effectiveness of adding revaccination and/or continuing catch-up vaccination in the NIP was evaluated from the public payer perspective in Japan.

METHODS

The Markov model included five health states: no pneumococcal disease, invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD), non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (NBPP), post-meningitis sequelae, and death. Cohorts of adults aged 65-95 were followed until age 100 or death: 2014 cohort (aged 65-95, vaccinated: 2014); 2019 cohort (aged 65: 2019); and 2019 catch-up cohort (aged 70-100: 2019, unvaccinated: 2014). Strategies included: (1) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts; (2) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts and revaccinate both; (3) strategy 1 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; (4) strategy 2 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; and (5) strategy 4 and revaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort. Parameters were retrieved from global and Japanese sources, costs and QALYs discounted at 2%, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) estimated.

RESULTS

Strategy 1 had the highest number of IPD and NBPP cases, and strategy 5 the lowest. Strategies 3-5 dominated strategy 1 and strategy 2 was cost-effective compared to strategy 1 (ICER: ¥1,622,153 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5 million per QALY gained, strategy 2 was cost-effective and strategies 3-5 were cost-saving compared to strategy 1.

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies including revaccination, catch-up, or both were cost-effective or cost-saving in comparison to no revaccination and no catch-up. Results can inform future vaccine policies and programs in Japan.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of a sequential pneumococcal vaccination program for adults in Germany

Introduction

In Germany, a 23-valent polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (PPSV23) is recommended for elderly (60+) and patients 16+ with chronic diseases not associated with immune suppression. For all other patients at risk, sequential immunization with a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) first, followed by PPSV23 is recommended. Repeated vaccination with PPSV23 is recommended every 6 years after individual assessment by the physician. This was adopted into the vaccination directive with binding reimbursement and funding. However, additional voluntary services allow statutory health insurances to differentiate from each other. Aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of voluntary service scenarios compared to the strategy in place to support informed decision making.

Methods

A microsimulation framework with Markov-type process of a population susceptible to pneumococcal disease over a lifetime horizon was developed to compare effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. We simulated 1,000 iterations for seven scenarios. Assumptions were derived from published literature and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was run to show the robustness of the model.

Results

Our study indicates that all voluntary service strategies could prevent further clinical cases compared to the existing policy. Depending on the scenario, 48–142 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), 24,000–45,000 hospitalized all-cause nonbacteremic pneumonia (NBP), 15,000–45,000 outpatient NBP cases, and 4,000–8,000 deaths could be avoided on average. This refers to potential savings of €115 Mio. - €187 Mio. for medical and non-medical costs. Additional costs per patient for the payer are €2.48 to €7.13 and for the society €2.20 to €6.85. The ICER per LYG ranged from €3,662 to €23,061 (payer) and €3,258 to €29,617 (societal). All but one scenario was cost-effective in ≥60% of the generated 1,000 simulations.

Conclusion

Compared to the vaccination strategy in place, the different hypothetical scenarios can be considered cost-effective and suitable as additional voluntary services.

Systematic review of economic evaluations of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in individuals 60 years of age or older

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the economic evaluations of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in adults aged ≥60 years to inform the development of local studies through the discussion of parameters and assumptions that influence the results of the analyses.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica, Cochrane Library, Latin-American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Brazilian Regional Library of Medicine, National Health Service Economic Evaluation, and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination-as well as the Scopus citation index and the Web of Science for full economic evaluations of PPV23 published up to March 2016. Two independent reviewers screened the articles for relevance and extracted the data. Main study characteristics and methods (clinical and epidemiological data, cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were extracted and compared. Costs were updated to 2016 international dollars.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies published from 1980 to 2016 were reviewed. Most studies were conducted in Europe and the USA; three studies were conducted in Latin America (Brazil, 2; Colombia, 1). In addition to the scenario comparing the vaccination with the PPV23 to non-vaccination, three studies also compared PPV23 to pneumococcal conjugate 13-valent vaccine (PCV13). All studies used static models. Most used a lifetime (44.4%) or 5-6 year's time horizon (33.3%). Only three studies considered herd protection from children immunization with PCV13 in the model. Most studies considered PPV23 cost-effective (less than US$50,000 per LYG or QALY) and sometimes cost-saving (results ranging from cost-saving to US$84,636/QALY). The estimates of disease burden, the efficacy/effectiveness of PPV23, and the effects of herd protection from childhood immunization had most influence on the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Well-designed cost-effectiveness studies of PPV23 that represent the current epidemiological scenario and reduce uncertainty related to efficacy/effectiveness are extremely relevant to informing the decision-making process.

The full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal disease causes substantial morbidity and mortality, including among adults. Adult pneumococcal vaccines help to prevent these burdens, but they are underused. Accounting for the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination may promote more rational resource allocation decisions with respect to adult pneumococcal vaccines.

OBJECTIVES

Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a systematic review to assess the extent to which the literature has empirically captured (e.g., through measurement or modeling) the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Embase to identify studies published between January 1, 2010 and April 10, 2016 that examine adult pneumococcal vaccination. We included articles if they captured any health or economic benefit of an adult pneumococcal vaccine administered to adults age ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 in risk groups. Finally, we summarized the literature by categorizing the types of benefits captured, the perspective taken, and the strength of the evidence presented. Our protocol is number 42016038335 in the PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews.

RESULTS

We identified 5,857 papers and included 150 studies for analysis. While most capture health gains and healthcare cost savings, far fewer studies consider additional benefit categories, such as productivity gains. However, the studies with a broader approach still exhibit significant limitations; for example, many present only abstracts, while others offer no new measurements. Studies that examine the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine focus more on broad economic benefits, but still have limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights the need for more robust empirical accounting of the full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination. Literature outside this realm indicates that these broad benefits may be substantial. Failing to investigate the full benefits may lead society to undervalue vaccines' contributions and therefore underinvest in their development and adoption.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination strategies for the elderly in Korea

Background

Although the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) showed good efficacy against pneumococcal disease in the the CAPiTA trial, the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (PPSV23) program has been ongoing for older adults aged ≥ 65 years in Korea since May of 2013. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the current vaccination strategy (a single-dose PPSV23 vaccination) compared to a single-dose PCV13 vaccination and sequential PCV13-PPSV23 vaccinations in the elderly population aged ≥ 65 years.

Methods

Using a Markov model, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of three vaccination strategies were assessed in a societal context. The transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality adjusted life year (QALY), and disease treatment costs were either calculated or cited from published data and the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Simulations were performed in hypothetical cohorts of Korean adults aged ≥ 19 years. The vaccine effectiveness of PPSV23 was cited from a Cochrane Review report, while PCV13 effectiveness data were gathered from the CAPiTA trial.

Results

Current PPSV23 vaccination strategies were cost-effective (ICER, $25,786 per QALY). However, the administration of PCV13 as a substitute for PPSV23 was shown to be more cost-effective than PPSV23 vaccination (ICER, $797 per QALY). Sequential PCV13-PPSV23 vaccination was also more cost-effective than PPSV23 for elderly people aged ≥ 65 years. In sensitivity analysis assuming significant PPSV23 effectiveness (50%) against non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, the PCV13 vaccination strategy was superior to the PPSV23 vaccination strategy in terms of cost-effectiveness.

Conclusion

The results suggest that PCV13 vaccination is more cost-effective in elderly subjects aged ≥ 65 years compared to the current PPSV23 vaccination strategy. When complete data is obtained in 2018 on the maximal herd effects of childhood PCV13 immunization, the incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia and the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies need to be reassessed.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of infant vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Germany

BACKGROUND

In 2009, the European Medicines Agency granted approval for two higher-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal infant (<2 years old) vaccination with a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in comparison with a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) for the prevention of pneumococcal disease in Germany.

METHODS

A population-based Markov model was developed to estimate the impact of PCV13 and PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), non-invasive pneumonia (PNE), and acute otitis media (AOM) over a time horizon of 50 years. The model included the effects of the historical vaccination scheme in infants as well as indirect herd effects and replacement disease. We used German epidemiological data to calculate episodes of IPD, PNE, and AOM, as well as direct and indirect effects of the vaccination. Parameter uncertainty was tested in univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the ICER of PCV13 versus PCV10 infant vaccination was EUR 9826 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained or EUR 5490 per life-year (LY) gained from the societal perspective and EUR 3368 per QALY gained or EUR 1882 per LY gained from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance. The results were particularly sensitive to the magnitude of indirect effects of both vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal infant vaccination with PCV13 is likely to be a cost-effective intervention compared with PCV10 within the German health care system, if additional net indirect effects of PCV13 vaccination are significant.

Evaluating the costs and benefits of pneumococcal vaccination in adults

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal infection is a public health concern that disproportionately affects the young, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. There is an open debate on the implementation of polysaccharide and/or conjugate vaccines for pneumococcal diseases in adults and the elderly in many countries. The aim of this paper is to systematically review the economic profile of pneumococcal vaccines in adults in terms of costs and benefits. Areas covered: The search for economic studies on pneumococcal vaccination was carried out in Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, and the HTA and NHS EED databases and through a manual search in journals dealing with economic evaluations. We included original articles and reviews with economic evaluation of polysaccharide 23-valent (PPV23) and/or conjugate pneumococcal vaccine 13-valent (PCV13) use in adults, the elderly, and at-risk groups to provide a systematic review of economical evaluation. Expert commentary: Pneumococcal vaccination is strongly recommended for all adults, especially subjects at risk and the elderly. Pneumococcal vaccination with PCV13 or PPV23 in adults is good value for money and should be a priority for the decision-makers. The main issue is how vaccination could be offered.

Cost Effectiveness of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Program in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Aged 50+ Years in Spain

Background

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at elevated risk of pneumococcal infection. A 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was approved for protection against invasive disease and pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults. This study estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of vaccinating COPD patients ≥50 years old with PCV13 compared with current vaccination policy (CVP) with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine.

Methods

A Markov model accounting for the risks and costs for all-cause non-bacteremic pneumonia (NBP) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) was developed. All parameters, such as disease incidence and costs (€; 2015 values), were based on published data. The perspective of the analysis was that of the Spanish National Healthcare System, and the horizon of evaluation was lifetime in the base case. Vaccine effectiveness considered waning effect over time. Outcomes and costs were both discounted by 3 % annually.

Results

Over a lifetime horizon and for a 629,747 COPD total population, PCV13 would prevent 2224 cases of inpatient NBP, 3134 cases of outpatient NBP, and 210 IPD extra cases in comparison with CVP. Additionally, 398 related deaths would be averted. The ICER was €1518 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for PCV13 versus CVP. PCV13 was found to be cost effective versus CVP from a 5-year modelling horizon (1302 inpatient NBP and 1835 outpatient NBP cases together with 182 deaths would be prevented [ICER €25,573/QALY]). Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model.

Conclusions

At the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000/QALY gained, PCV13 vaccination in COPD patients aged ≥50 years was a cost-effective strategy compared with CVP from 5 years to lifetime horizon in Spain.

Cost-effectiveness of vaccinating the elderly and at-risk adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the UK

OBJECTIVE

The introduction of routine childhood vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has led to a decrease in the overall incidence of pneumococcal disease in all ages and a change in the serotype distribution of the remaining disease. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ≥65 years and at risk adults with either the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) or the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in the UK, accounting for epidemiological changes.

METHODS

A population-based Markov model was used to track one UK-based cohort of individuals assuming PPV23, PCV13 or no vaccination until death.

RESULTS

The ICER was estimated at £8413 when PPV23 was compared to no vaccination. PPV23 dominated PCV13.

CONCLUSION

This model suggests that vaccinating with PPV23 is cost-effective when compared to both PCV13 and no vaccination. As PPV23 covers 80-90% in the UK of all serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal diseases, it remains cost-effective despite recent reductions in invasive pneumococcal diseases incidence in adults.

A public health and budget impact analysis of vaccinating the elderly and at-risk adults with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the UK

OBJECTIVE

Since the introduction of the routine childhood immunization, a change in epidemiology of pneumococcal disease has been seen in both children and adults. This study aimed to quantify the public health and budget impact of pneumococcal vaccination of the elderly and those in at risk groups in the UK.

METHODS

The model was adapted from a previous population-based Markov model. At-risk adults and the elderly were assumed to receive PPV23 or PCV13 vaccination or no vaccination.

RESULTS

Over the study period (2012-2016), PPV23 vaccination led to a reduction in the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases in most scenarios. The net budget impact ranged between £15 and £39 million (vs no vaccination) or between -£116 and -£93 million (vs PCV13).

CONCLUSION

PPV23 vaccination program remains the optimal strategy from public health and budgetary perspectives despite epidemiological changes. PCV13 is likely to impose a significant budget with limited health benefits.