1
|
Damtew YT, Tong M, Varghese BM, Anikeeva O, Hansen A, Dear K, Zhang Y, Morgan G, Driscoll T, Capon T, Bi P. Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis. EBioMedicine 2023; 91:104582. [PMID: 37088034 PMCID: PMC10149186 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 04/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally. METHODS A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). FINDINGS The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be "sufficient" for high temperatures but "limited" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income. INTERPRETATION High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention. FUNDING Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yohannes Tefera Damtew
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia.
| | - Michael Tong
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | - Blesson Mathew Varghese
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Olga Anikeeva
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Tim Driscoll
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Tony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Islam MA, Hasan MN, Tiwari A, Raju MAW, Jannat F, Sangkham S, Shammas MI, Sharma P, Bhattacharya P, Kumar M. Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:5152. [PMID: 36982061 PMCID: PMC10049245 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20065152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Revised: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia's most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it's dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman's rho; r = -0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = -0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is -666.50 [95% CI: -1711.86 to 378.86] and -953.05 [-2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Md. Aminul Islam
- COVID-19 Diagnostic Lab, Department of Microbiology, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali 3814, Bangladesh
- Advanced Molecular Lab, Department of Microbiology, President Abdul Hamid Medical College, Karimganj 2310, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Nayeem Hasan
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Ananda Tiwari
- Department of Health Security, Expert Microbiology Research Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, 70701 Kuopio, Finland
| | - Md. Abdul Wahid Raju
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Fateha Jannat
- Department of Public Health, North East University, Sylhet 3100, Bangladesh
| | - Sarawut Sangkham
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Phayao, Muang District, Phayao 56000, Thailand
| | - Mahaad Issa Shammas
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Dhofar University, P.O. Box 2509, Salalah PC 211, Oman
| | - Prabhakar Sharma
- School of Ecology and Environment Studies, Nalanda University, Rajgir 803116, India
| | - Prosun Bhattacharya
- COVID-19 Research, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10B, SE 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Manish Kumar
- Sustainability Cluster, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun 248007, India
- Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Campus Monterey, Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur, Monterrey 64849, Mexico
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Susilawaty A, Ekasari R, Widiastuty L, Wijaya DR, Arranury Z, Basri S. Climate factors and dengue fever occurrence in Makassar during period of 2011-2017. GACETA SANITARIA 2021; 35 Suppl 2:S408-S412. [PMID: 34929863 DOI: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2021.10.063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Dengue fever is a global burden because of high cases number. Climate factors became determinant of the mosquito's growth. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climate factors (humidity, temperature, wind speed, rainfall) and dengue cases in Makassar during 2011-2017. METHODS It was quantitative study located in Makassar. Data were analyzed by General Estimating Equation (GEE). Gee was used to showing the model of variables. This study used secondary data from Health District Office of Makassar to get Dengue Cases Data and Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency of Makassar for monthly climate data. RESULTS The result showed significant correlation between climate variables that have been researched which were temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed to dengue fever cases. CONCLUSIONS As conclusion, the humidity had strongest correlation to dengue fever cases. It also showed positive correlation, while others showed negative correlation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andi Susilawaty
- Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin, Makassar 90221, Indonesia
| | - Ranti Ekasari
- Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin, Makassar 90221, Indonesia
| | | | | | | | - Syahrul Basri
- Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin, Makassar 90221, Indonesia.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
de Sousa SC, Carneiro M, Eiras ÁE, Bezerra JMT, Barbosa DS. Factors associated with the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Brazil: a systematic review. Rev Panam Salud Publica 2021; 45:e84. [PMID: 34377143 PMCID: PMC8344382 DOI: 10.26633/rpsp.2021.84] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2020] [Accepted: 04/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify and describe broadly the factors related to the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Brazil. METHODS Systematic review of studies published in Medline, Lilacs, PubMed, Cochrane, BVS, Web of Science, Scopus, and thesis and dissertations databases using descriptors cataloged in DeCs and MeSH on dengue and factors associated with the occurrence of epidemics, published from 2008 to 2018. RESULTS Thirty-five studies carried out in the country were selected. The epidemics recorded in Brazil were associated and/or correlated with multiple factors such as environment, socioeconomic conditions, climate, and aspects related to the vector, among others. CONCLUSIONS Dengue epidemics are complex and multifactorial. The continuity of the vector control actions was found to be relevant to the reduction of Aedes aegypti and for disease control. To contain the spread of the disease, effective measures are needed in all sectors, including health, education, economy, population, business, and government. Actions for the early detection of cases of the disease can prevent new outbreaks of epidemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Selma Costa de Sousa
- Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Mariângela Carneiro
- Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Álvaro Eduardo Eiras
- Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - David Soeiro Barbosa
- Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazilUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Costa Filho RV, Souza JND, Andrade LOMD, Oliveira AMBD, Denis JL, Ribeiro LLS, Ribeiro KG, Andrade DBD, Pereira SSL. Field of practice: LARIISA: smart digital solutions to support decision-making in Family Health Strategy management. CIENCIA & SAUDE COLETIVA 2021; 26:1701-1712. [PMID: 34076112 DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232021265.03382021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The LARIISA collaborators group has been conducting research and development of technological solutions to support decision-making in health systems since 2009. GISSA, a cloud system resulting from the scientific and technological evolution of the LARIISA project, is among the solutions produced. This paper aims to describe the developing trend of GISSA©, a technological tool supporting the Family Health Strategy in northeastern Brazil, pointing out challenges, paths, and potentialities. This is a descriptive and exploratory study, based on secondary sources from the IBGE, INMET, SINAN, SIM, and SINASC, with quantitative analysis based on machine-learning techniques applied to create digital health microservices. Operating in the northeast and southeast regions, GISSA© provides information that qualifies health managers' decision-making process, improving the municipal health system's management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Raimundo Valter Costa Filho
- Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará (IFC). Km 132 s/n, Aeroporto. 62800-000 Aracati CE Brasil.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Silas Santiago Lopes Pereira
- Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará (IFC). Km 132 s/n, Aeroporto. 62800-000 Aracati CE Brasil.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Iguchi JA, Seposo XT, Honda Y. Meteorological factors affecting dengue incidence in Davao, Philippines. BMC Public Health 2018; 18:629. [PMID: 29764403 PMCID: PMC5952851 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-018-5532-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2017] [Accepted: 05/01/2018] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue fever is a major public health concern in the Philippines, and has been a significant cause of hospitalizations and deaths among young children. Previous literature links climate change to dengue, and with increasingly unpredictable changing climate patterns, there is a need to understand how these meteorological variables affect dengue incidence in a highly endemic area. Methods Weekly dengue incidences (2011–2015) in Davao Region, Philippines were obtained from the Department of Health. Same period of weekly local meteorological variables were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Wavelet coherence analysis was used to determine the presence of non-stationary relationships, while a quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the association between meteorological variables and dengue incidences. Results Significant periodicity was detected in the 7 to 14-week band between the year 2011–2012 and a 26-week periodicity from the year 2013–2014. Overall cumulative risks were particularly high for rainfall at 32 mm (RR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.07–2.62), while risks were observed to increase with increasing dew point. On the other hand, lower average temperature of 26 °C has resulted to an increased RR of dengue (RR: 1.96, 95% CI: 0.47–8.15) while higher temperature from 27 °C to 31 °C has lower RR. Conclusions The observed possible threshold levels of these meteorological variables can be integrated into an early warning system to enhance dengue prediction for better vector control and management in the future. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5532-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jesavel A Iguchi
- Department of Health Care Policy and Health Economics, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, Ibaraki, 305-8577, Japan
| | - Xerxes T Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 615-8530, Japan.
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8577, Japan
| |
Collapse
|