Reasons behind declining of cases during the COVID-19 wavelets in Pakistan: public healthcare system or government smart lockdown policy?

COVID-19 Testing Trend: A Retrospective Analysis of the Three Major Pandemic Waves in Punjab, Pakistan

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

There is some evidence in the literature of under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan. This study aims to explore COVID-19 testing trends and the factors affecting them in a lower middle-income country for future infectious disease policy-making and intervention strategies.

METHODOLOGY

The study was conducted as a serial cross-sectional study during the three major peaks from March 2020 to June 2021 on 1616 participants in Punjab, Pakistan. This is the first study to explore COVID-19 testing trends in association with flu-like symptoms (FLS) and the factors affecting all three major waves in Pakistan.

RESULTS

The results show that in all three waves, only 18.8% reported COVID-19 tested despite that 86.7% thought they had already had COVID-19, with 51.3% reporting having FLS and 35.6% with exposure to FLS from their families and 19.8% of positive testing rate among their family members. Out of the survey participants, 66% received vaccination, and over 80% had their eligible family members immunized. Fear of contracting COVID-19 was 69.7% in all three waves. Factors positively associated with the uptake of testing were the age group of 31-40 years with an adjusted odds ratio of 3.27 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.09-5.12) for the second wave and an adjusted odds ratio of 13.75 (95% CI: 9.43-20.01) for the third wave and traveling abroad with odds of 3.08 times when the reference was inland traveling. The adjusted odds ratio to test for FLS was 1.62 (95% CI: 1.21-2.16).

CONCLUSION

In this study, there is convincing evidence of COVID-19 under-testing and thus under-reporting. This study also suggests that fear-based interventions may be counterproductive; however, economic factors such as education, employment, and traveling are significant in guiding the behavior for infectious disease prevention and management.

Temporal and spatial analysis of COVID-19 incidence hotspots in Pakistan: A spatio-statistical approach

This research paper analyzes the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan using geo-statistical approach to geo-visualize the spatio-temporal pattern hotspots of active cases. The study is based on secondary data, collected from concerned Government Department. Getis-Ord-Gi* statistical model was used to estimate Z score and P score values representing the intensity of active cases in each location. The results indicate that the high intensity of active cases in the selected period is spatially distributed in Punjab and Sindh provinces and extending towards the west. The capital territory also experiences a slight increase in active cases rate. However, the rate of active cases decreases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir with some fluctuations. Overall, this research highlights the usefulness of geo-statistical modeling for identifying hotspots of any epidemic or pandemic. By knowing the hotspots of a disease, policy makers can easily identify the reasons for its spread, trends, and distribution patterns, making it easier to develop management policies to tackle any pandemic situation in the future.

Antimicrobial Dispensing Practices during COVID-19 and the Implications for Pakistan

Antibiotics are one of the most frequently dispensed classes of medicines. However, excessive misuse and abuse enhances antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Previous studies in Pakistan have documented extensive dispensing of 'Watch' and 'Reserve' antibiotics, which is a concern. In view of this, there is a need to assess current dispensing patterns following COVID-19 in Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was undertaken, collecting dispensing data from 39 pharmacies and 53 drug stores from November 2022 to February 2023. Outlets were principally in urban areas (60.9%), with pharmacists/pharmacy technicians present in 32.6% of outlets. In total, 11,092 prescriptions were analyzed; 67.1% of patients were supplied at least one antimicrobial, 74.3% antibiotics, 10.2% antifungals and 7.9% anthelmintics. A total of 33.2% of antimicrobials were supplied without a prescription. Common indications for dispensed antibiotics were respiratory (34.3%) and gastrointestinal (16.8%) infections, which can be self-limiting. In addition, 12% of antibiotics were dispensed for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19. The most frequent antibiotics dispensed were ceftriaxone (18.4%) and amoxicillin (15.4%). Overall, 59.2% antibiotics were 'Watch' antibiotics, followed by 'Access' (40.3%) and 'Reserve' (0.5%) antibiotics. Of the total antibiotics dispensed for treating COVID-19, 68.3% were 'Watch' and 31.7% 'Access'. Overall, there appeared to be an appreciable number of antibiotics dispensed during the recent pandemic, including for patients with COVID-19, alongside generally extensive dispensing of 'Watch' antibiotics. This needs to be urgently addressed with appropriate programs among pharmacists/pharmacy technicians to reduce AMR.