da Silva CC, de Souza KOC, da Paz WS, Santos APS, de Melo LRS, de Sousa ÁFL, Araújo DDC, dos Santos AD. Spatial modeling of homicide mortality in the Northeast region of Brazil.
Rev Bras Enferm 2023;
76:e20220182. [PMID:
36753255 PMCID:
PMC9901349 DOI:
10.1590/0034-7167-2022-0182]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 02/09/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of homicide mortality and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast Region of Brazil.
METHODS
Ecological study with spatiotemporal modeling of homicide deaths between 2000 and 2019. Temporal trends were analyzed by segmented linear regression. Crude mortality was calculated and adjusted by smoothing the local empirical Bayesian method and analyzed by the Global/Local Moran Index and spatiotemporal scan statistics. The association between social determinants of health and homicide mortality was performed using multiple linear regression and autoregressive spatial models.
RESULTS
353,089 deaths were recorded. Mortality increased from 2000 to 2019, with an annual increase of 4.37 in males and 3.57 in females. High risk spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the coastal region of the states. The spatial regression model showed an association with socioeconomic inequalities.
CONCLUSIONS
High risk areas for homicides associated with socioeconomic inequality, which should be considered as a priority for designing and investing in public health policies were investigated.
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