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Chen L, Wu X, Xu Y, Rong L. Modelling the dynamics of Trypanosoma rangeli and triatomine bug with logistic growth of vector and systemic transmission. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2022; 19:8452-8478. [PMID: 35801473 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, an insect-parasite-host model with logistic growth of triatomine bugs is formulated to study the transmission between hosts and vectors of the Chagas disease by using dynamical system approach. We derive the basic reproduction numbers for triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma rangeli as two thresholds. The local and global stability of the vector-free equilibrium, parasite-free equilibrium and parasite-positive equilibrium is investigated through the derived two thresholds. Forward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are proved analytically and illustrated numerically. We show that the model can lose the stability of the vector-free equilibrium and exhibit a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, indicating the occurrence of a stable limit cycle. We also find it unlikely to have backward bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of the parasite-positive equilibrium. However, the sustained oscillations of infected vector population suggest that Trypanosoma rangeli will persist in all the populations, posing a significant challenge for the prevention and control of Chagas disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Chen
- Department of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
| | - Xiaotian Wu
- College of Arts and Sciences, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Yancong Xu
- Department of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
| | - Libin Rong
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, USA
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El Saadi N, Bah A, Mahdjoub T, Kribs C. On the sylvatic transmission of T. cruzi, the parasite causing Chagas disease: a view from an agent-based model. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
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Modelling triatomine bug population and Trypanosoma rangeli transmission dynamics: Co-feeding, pathogenic effect and linkage with chagas disease. Math Biosci 2020; 324:108326. [PMID: 32092467 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Revised: 02/18/2020] [Accepted: 02/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Trypanosoma rangeli (T. rangeli), a parasite, is not pathogenic to human but pathogenic to some vector species to induce the behavior changes of infected vectors and subsequently impact the transmission dynamics of other diseases such as Chagas disease which shares the same vector species. Here we develop a mathematical model and conduct qualitative analysis for the transmission dynamics of T. rangeli. We incorporate both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes, and account for the pathogenic effect using infection-induced fecundity and fertility change of the triatomine bugs. We derive two thresholds Rv (the triatomine bug basic reproduction number) and R0 (the T. rangeli basic reproduction number) to delineate the dynamical behaviors of the ecological and epidemiological systems. We show that when Rv>1 and R0>1, a unique parasite positive equilibrium E* appears. We find that E* can be unstable and periodic oscillations can be observed where the pathogenic effect plays a significant role. Implications of the qualitative analysis and numerical simulations suggest the need of an integrative vector-borne disease prevention and control strategy when multiple vector-borne diseases are transmitted by the same set of vector species.
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Oduro B, Grijalva MJ, Just W. A model of insect control with imperfect treatment. JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS 2019; 13:518-537. [PMID: 31290728 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2019.1640293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 06/28/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. However, some vectors may survive treatment, due to imperfect spraying by the operator or because they hide deep in the cracks or other places, and re-emerge in the same unit when the effect of the insecticide wears off. While several mathematical models of this phenomenon have been previously described and studied in the literature, the model presented here is more basic than existing ones. Thus it is more amenable to mathematical analysis, which is carried out here. In particular, we demonstrate that an initially very high spraying rate may push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bismark Oduro
- a Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Information Systems , California University of PA , California , PA , USA
| | - Mario J Grijalva
- b Infectious and Tropical Disease Institute, Department of Biomedical Sciences , Ohio University , Athens , OH , USA
- c Center for Health Research in Latin America (CISeAL), School of Biological Sciences , Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador , Quito , Ecuador
| | - Winfried Just
- d Quantitative Biology Institute and Infectious and Tropical Disease Institute, Department of Mathematics , Ohio University , Athens , OH , USA
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Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Skrip L, Hertenstein DL, Avelis CM, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Tilchin C, Dumonteil EO, Galvani A. Are the London Declaration's 2020 goals sufficient to control Chagas disease?: Modeling scenarios for the Yucatan Peninsula. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006337. [PMID: 29554086 PMCID: PMC5875875 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2017] [Revised: 03/29/2018] [Accepted: 02/22/2018] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 2020 Sustainable Development goals call for 100% certified interruption or control of the three main forms of Chagas disease transmission in Latin America. However, how much will achieving these goals to varying degrees control Chagas disease; what is the potential impact of missing these goals and if they are achieved, what may be left? METHODS We developed a compartmental simulation model that represents the triatomine, human host, and non-human host populations and vector-borne, congenital, and transfusional T. cruzi transmission between them in the domestic and peridomestic settings to evaluate the impact of limiting transmission in a 2,000 person virtual village in Yucatan, Mexico. RESULTS Interruption of domestic vectorial transmission had the largest impact on T. cruzi transmission and prevalence in all populations. Most of the gains were achieved within the first few years. Controlling vectorial transmission resulted in a 46.1-83.0% relative reduction in the number of new acute Chagas cases for a 50-100% interruption in domestic vector-host contact. Only controlling congenital transmission led to a 2.4-8.1% (30-100% interruption) relative reduction in the total number of new acute cases and reducing only transfusional transmission led to a 0.1-0.3% (30-100% reduction). Stopping all three forms of transmission resulted in 0.5 total transmission events over five years (compared to 5.0 with no interruption); interrupting all forms by 30% resulted in 3.4 events over five years per 2,000 persons. CONCLUSIONS While reducing domestic vectorial, congenital, and transfusional transmission can successfully reduce transmission to humans (up to 82% in one year), achieving the 2020 goals would still result in 0.5 new acute cases per 2,000 over five years. Even if the goals are missed, major gains can be achieved within the first few years. Interrupting transmission should be combined with other efforts such as a vaccine or improved access to care, especially for the population of already infected individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce Y. Lee
- Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Sarah M. Bartsch
- Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Laura Skrip
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
| | - Daniel L. Hertenstein
- Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Cameron M. Avelis
- Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Martial Ndeffo-Mbah
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
| | - Carla Tilchin
- Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Eric O. Dumonteil
- Department of Tropical Medicine, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States of America
| | - Alison Galvani
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
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Oduro B, Grijalva MJ, Just W. Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost? Bull Math Biol 2018; 80:788-824. [PMID: 29404878 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0401-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2016] [Accepted: 01/24/2018] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bismark Oduro
- Department of Mathematics, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA.
| | - Mario J Grijalva
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Infectious and Tropical Disease Institute, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA.,Center for Health Research in Latin America, School of Biological Sciences, Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Winfried Just
- Department of Mathematics, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA
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Forlani L, Pedrini N, Girotti JR, Mijailovsky SJ, Cardozo RM, Gentile AG, Hernández-Suárez CM, Rabinovich JE, Juárez MP. Biological Control of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans with the Entomopathogenic Fungus Beauveria bassiana Combined with an Aggregation Cue: Field, Laboratory and Mathematical Modeling Assessment. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0003778. [PMID: 25969989 PMCID: PMC4430541 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2014] [Accepted: 04/22/2015] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current Chagas disease vector control strategies, based on chemical insecticide spraying, are growingly threatened by the emergence of pyrethroid-resistant Triatoma infestans populations in the Gran Chaco region of South America. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS We have already shown that the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana has the ability to breach the insect cuticle and is effective both against pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans, in laboratory as well as field assays. It is also known that T. infestans cuticle lipids play a major role as contact aggregation pheromones. We estimated the effectiveness of pheromone-based infection boxes containing B. bassiana spores to kill indoor bugs, and its effect on the vector population dynamics. Laboratory assays were performed to estimate the effect of fungal infection on female reproductive parameters. The effect of insect exuviae as an aggregation signal in the performance of the infection boxes was estimated both in the laboratory and in the field. We developed a stage-specific matrix model of T. infestans to describe the fungal infection effects on insect population dynamics, and to analyze the performance of the biopesticide device in vector biological control. CONCLUSIONS The pheromone-containing infective box is a promising new tool against indoor populations of this Chagas disease vector, with the number of boxes per house being the main driver of the reduction of the total domestic bug population. This ecologically safe approach is the first proven alternative to chemical insecticides in the control of T. infestans. The advantageous reduction in vector population by delayed-action fungal biopesticides in a contained environment is here shown supported by mathematical modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Forlani
- Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de La Plata (INIBIOLP, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, La Plata, Argentina
| | - Nicolás Pedrini
- Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de La Plata (INIBIOLP, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, La Plata, Argentina
| | - Juan R. Girotti
- Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de La Plata (INIBIOLP, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, La Plata, Argentina
| | - Sergio J. Mijailovsky
- Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de La Plata (INIBIOLP, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, La Plata, Argentina
| | - Rubén M. Cardozo
- Instituto de Patología Experimental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Nacional de Salta, Salta, Argentina
- Coordinación de Gestión Epidemiológica, Ministerio de Salud Pública, Salta, Argentina
| | - Alberto G. Gentile
- Coordinación de Gestión Epidemiológica, Ministerio de Salud Pública, Salta, Argentina
| | | | - Jorge E. Rabinovich
- Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CEPAVE, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), La Plata, Argentina
| | - M. Patricia Juárez
- Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de La Plata (INIBIOLP, CONICET, CCT-La Plata, UNLP), Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, La Plata, Argentina
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Rossi JCN, Duarte EC, Gurgel-Gonçalves R. Factors associated with the occurrence of Triatoma sordida (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in rural localities of Central-West Brazil. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 2015; 110:192-200. [PMID: 25946242 PMCID: PMC4489449 DOI: 10.1590/0074-02760140395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2014] [Accepted: 12/19/2014] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
This study estimates the factors of artificial environments (houses and peridomestic areas) associated with Triatoma sordida occurrence. Manual searches for triatomines were performed in 136 domiciliary units (DUs) in two rural localities of Central-West Brazil. For each DU, 32 structural, 23 biotic and 28 management variables were obtained. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify statistically significant variables associated with occurrence of T. sordida in the study areas. A total of 1,057 specimens (99% in peridomiciles, mainly chicken coops) of T. sordida were collected from 63 DUs (infestation: 47%; density: ~8 specimens/DU; crowding: ~17 specimens/infested DU; colonisation: 81%). Only six (0.6%) out of 945 specimens examined were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The final adjusted logistic regression model indicated that the probability of T. sordida occurrence was higher in DU with wooden chicken coops, presence of > 30 animals in wooden corrals, presence of wood piles and presence of food storeroom. The results show the persistence of T. sordida in peridomestic habitats in rural localities of Central-West Brazil. However, the observed low intradomestic colonisation and minimal triatomine infection rates indicate that T. sordida has low potential to sustain high rates of T. cruzi transmission to residents of these localities.
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Nouvellet P, Cucunubá ZM, Gourbière S. Ecology, evolution and control of Chagas disease: a century of neglected modelling and a promising future. ADVANCES IN PARASITOLOGY 2015; 87:135-91. [PMID: 25765195 DOI: 10.1016/bs.apar.2014.12.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
More than 100 years after its formal description, Chagas disease remains a major public health concern in Latin America with a yearly burden of 430,000 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The aetiological agent, a protozoan named Trypanosoma cruzi, is mainly transmitted to mammalian hosts by triatomine vectors. Multiple species of mammals and triatomines can harbour and transmit the parasite, and the feeding range of triatomine species typically includes many noncompetent hosts. Furthermore, the transmission of the pathogen can occur via several routes including the typical vector's faeces, but also oral, congenital and blood transfusion routes. These ecological and epidemiological complexities of the disease have hindered many control initiatives. In such a context, mathematical models provide invaluable tools to explore and understand the dynamics of T. cruzi transmission, and to design, optimize and monitor the efficacy of control interventions. We intend here to provide the first review of the mathematical models of Chagas disease, focussing on how they have contributed to our understanding of (1) the population dynamics and control of triatomine vectors, and (2) the epidemiology of T. cruzi infections. We also aim at suggesting promising lines of modelling that could further improve our understanding of the ecology, evolution, and control of the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Nouvellet
- Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Zulma M Cucunubá
- Grupo de Parasitología, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Colombia; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Sébastien Gourbière
- Institut de Modélisation et d'Analyse en Géo-Environnements et Santé (IMAGES), Université de Perpignan Via Domitia, Perpignan, France
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