Density dependence or climatic variation? Factors influencing survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of Virginia opossums

Stabilization for a class of delay systems via Z-type control

This paper investigates the Z-type control method to stabilize species populations and make them converge to desired values in a two-species predator-prey model with time delay in the prey species' growth rate. Direct controllers that assume both species' growth rates can be altered through human intervention and indirect controllers that assume only one species' growth can be changed at will are constructed. The Z-type method of construction is theoretically justified, and the potential for certain non-linear activation functions to speed up the control process is highlighted. A general procedure for discretizing state-space systems using the Euler forward formula is described. The discrete versions of the directly and indirectly controlled systems are provided. All Z-type controllers constructed are validated through numerical simulations.

Parsimonious Mechanistic Modeling of Bacterial Runoff into Irrigation Ponds To Inform Food Safety Management of Agricultural Water Quality

Pond irrigation water comprises a major pathway of pathogenic bacteria to fresh produce. Current regulatory methods have been shown to be ineffective in assessing this risk when variability of bacterial concentrations is large. This paper proposes using mechanistic modeling of bacterial transport as a way to identify improved strategies for mitigating this risk pathway. If the mechanistic model is successfully tested against observed data, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) can identify important mechanisms to inform alternative, preventive bacterial control practices. Model development favored parsimony and prediction of peak bacterial concentration events. Data from two highly variable surface water irrigation ponds showed that the model performance was similar or superior to that of existing pathogen transport models, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.48 and 0.18 for the two ponds. GSA quantified bacterial sourcing and hydrology as the most important processes driving pond bacterial contamination events. Model analysis has two main implications for improved regulatory methods: that peak concentration events are associated with runoff-producing rainfall events and that intercepting bacterial runoff transport may be the best option to prevent bacterial contamination of surface water irrigation ponds and thus fresh produce. This research suggests the need for temporal management strategies. IMPORTANCE Preventive management of agricultural waters requires understanding of the drivers of bacterial contamination events. We propose mechanistic modeling as a way forward to understand and predict such events and have developed and tested a parsimonious model for rain-driven surface runoff contributing to generic Escherichia coli contamination of irrigation ponds in Central Florida. While the model was able to predict the timing of peak events reasonably well, the highly variable magnitude of the peaks was less well predicted. This indicates the need to collect more data on the fecal contamination inputs of these ponds and the use of mechanistic modeling and global sensitivity analysis to identify the most important data needs.

Climatic factors and population demography in big-eared woodrat, Neotoma macrotis

Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can have marked impacts on small mammal populations that inhabit environments with highly fluctuating water availability. With projected increases in droughts and fewer but more intense rainfall events in the Southwestern United States, the persistence of many wildlife populations may be threatened. Our goal was to assess how temperature and rainfall during distinct dry and wet seasons influenced the dynamics of a population of big-eared woodrats (Neotoma macrotis) in a mixed oak woodland of coastal central California. We applied Pradel’s temporal symmetry models to our 21-year biannual capture–mark–recapture data set (1993–2014) to determine the effects of climatic factors on the woodrats’ apparent survival (Φ) and recruitment rate (f). Monthly Φ averaged 0.945 ± 0.001 and varied with season. Monthly f was 0.064 ± 0.001 in the wet season (f was fixed to 0 in the dry season). Monthly population growth rate (λ) varied from 0.996 ± 0.001 during the dry season to 1.001 ± 0.001 during the wet season, which indicated a stable population (0.999 ± 0.001). Total rainfall from the previous season and mean temperature during the same season positively influenced Φ and f. By contrast, Φ and f were negatively influenced by mean temperature from the previous season and total rainfall in the same season. The resulting λ fluctuated with total rainfall, particularly in the wet season. Our results suggest that the big-eared woodrat population may not be substantially affected by warm temperatures per se, potentially because of the microclimate provided by its stick houses. We also discuss its adaptability to local food resources and relatively slow life history relative to other cricetids, and propose that the big-eared woodrat population may be equipped to cope with future climate change.

Measures of Relative Dentary Strength in Rancho La Brea Smilodon fatalis over Time

The late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction of approximately 12,000 years ago, included the demise of Smilodon fatalis, a hypercarnivore from the Rancho La Brea deposits, which has been studied across time by looking at different deposits or pits to determine morphological size and shape changes and trends during this time. To better understand functional aspects of these changes, this study focused on a measure of jaw strength over time, which can give an indication of morphological changes within the jaw that cannot be seen using surface morphometrics. By radiographing dentaries, cortical bone can be seen, which provides an estimate of resistance to bending forces while biting, and can be measured and used as an indicator of jaw strength. Measurements were taken at repeatable locations on the dentary of the depth of the cortical bone, and of a standardized measure of cortical bone, which allows for the comparison between different individuals. Specimens included those of five different pits ranging from about 37 Kybp to 13 Kybp (just before the extinction of S. fatalis). No significant difference was found in the depth of jaws at any of the measurement points from any of the pits. However, significant differences were found in both the actual thickness of cortical bone, and the standardized thickness of cortical bone at the lower P4 between pit 13 (which had the lowest amount of bone) and pit 61/67 (which had the highest). These conclusions support other studies that have shown that individuals in pit 13 were under physiological and perhaps dietary stress, which may be reflected in the deposition of cortical bone, while the opposite trend is seen in the individuals in pit 61/67. Our results further support findings suggesting Smilodon did not appear to be morphologically most vulnerable right before its extinction.

Marsupial population dynamics in a tropical rainforest: intraspecific competition and nonlinear effect of rainfall

Population fluctuations are the result of the combined action of endogenous (feedback structure) and exogenous factors (large- and local-scale climate variables). In this paper, we used a 13-year time series to identify the feedback structure in a population of the brown 4-eyed opossum Metachirus nudicaudatus and to test a hypothesis on the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and rainfall using Royama’s theoretical framework. Metachirus nudicaudatus was regulated by a strong 1st-order negative feedback, with intraspecific competition for food resources as the probable factor governing the endogenous system. Contrary to our expectations, El Niño did not explain the marsupial dynamics better than 1-year lagged rainfall, that may operate in 2 different manners: as a nonlinear perturbation effect influencing the strength of density dependence (intraspecific competition and intraguild predation) or as a lateral perturbation effect influencing the carrying capacity of the environment.

As flutuações populacionais são resultado da ação conjunta de fatores endógenos (estrutura de retroalimentação) e exógenos (variáveis climáticas locais e de larga escala). A partir de uma série temporal de 13 anos, nós identificamos a estrutura de retroalimentação da população da cuíca marrom de quatro olhos Metachirus nudicaudatus , e testamos hipóteses a respeito dos efeitos do El Niño Oscilação Sul e chuva utilizando a abordagem teórica de Royama. Metachirus nudicaudatus é regulado por uma forte retroalimentação negativa de primeira ordem, com a competição intraespecífica por recursos alimentares como o provável fator que rege o sistema endógeno. Ao contrário do que esperávamos, o El Niño não explicou a dinâmica populacional deste marsupial melhor do que a chuva com a defasagem de 1 ano, que pode atuar em duas formas: como um efeito de perturbação não-linear, influenciando a força da dependência densidade (competição intraespecífica e predação intraguilda), ou como um efeito de perturbação lateral, influenciando a capacidade de suporte do ambiente.

Environmental variation and population responses to global change

Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.

Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon

Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.