Genetic assignment tests reveal dispersal of white-tailed deer: implications for chronic wasting disease

Predicting chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer at the county scale using machine learning

Continued spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) through wild cervid herds negatively impacts populations, erodes wildlife conservation, drains resource dollars, and challenges wildlife management agencies. Risk factors for CWD have been investigated at state scales, but a regional model to predict locations of new infections can guide increasingly efficient surveillance efforts. We predicted CWD incidence by county using CWD surveillance data depicting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 16 eastern and midwestern US states. We predicted the binary outcome of CWD-status using four machine learning models, utilized five-fold cross-validation and grid search to pinpoint the best model, then compared model predictions against the subsequent year of surveillance data. Cross validation revealed that the Light Boosting Gradient model was the most reliable predictor given the regional data. The predictive model could be helpful for surveillance planning. Predictions of false positives emphasize areas that warrant targeted CWD surveillance because of similar conditions with counties known to harbor CWD. However, disagreements in positives and negatives between the CWD Prediction Web App predictions and the on-the-ground surveillance data one year later underscore the need for state wildlife agency professionals to use a layered modeling approach to ensure robust surveillance planning. The CWD Prediction Web App is at https://cwd-predict.streamlit.app/ .

Comparison of sample types from white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for DNA extraction and analyses

Collection of biological samples for DNA is necessary in a variety of disciplines including disease epidemiology, landscape genetics, and forensics. Quantity and quality of DNA varies depending on the method of collection or media available for collection (e.g., blood, tissue, fecal). Blood is the most common sample collected in vials or on Whatman Flinders Technology Associates (FTA) cards with short- and long-term storage providing adequate DNA for study objectives. The focus of this study was to determine if biological samples stored on Whatman FTA Elute cards were a reasonable alternative to traditional DNA sample collection, storage, and extraction. Tissue, nasal swabs, and ocular fluid were collected from white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Tissue samples and nasal swabs acted as a control to compare extraction and DNA suitability for microsatellite analysis for nasal swabs and ocular fluid extracted from FTA Elute cards. We determined that FTA Elute cards improved the extraction time and storage of samples and that nasal swabs and ocular fluid containing pigmented fluid were reasonable alternatives to traditional tissue DNA extractions.

Spatial analysis of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Illinois, 2008-2019

Understanding the geographic distribution and clustering of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations can inform disease management practices. We used a retrospective analysis of surveillance data to evaluate CWD's spatial and temporal dynamics within 16 CWD-infected northern Illinois counties. Of 42,541 deer samples collected and tested for CWD from recreational hunter harvest between 2008 and 2019, we recorded 359 (0.84%) CWD-positive samples. We observed variability in CWD cases over time and space. By county, the median CWD-positive proportion was 0.84%, varying from a minimum of 0.14% in McHenry County to a maximum of 6.28% in Boone County. Across years, there were differences among CWD-positive proportions with a median of 0.90%, ranging from a minimum of 0.27% in 2012 to a maximum of 1.60% in 2019. We used a retrospective discrete Poisson scan statistic model to evaluate the space-time clustering of CWD-positive deer. We identified a statistically significant (p < .001) primary cluster C1 (area = 23.59 km² ; RR = 10.48), occurring from 2010 to 2015 in the north-central part of the study area, and a secondary cluster C2, occurring from 2014 to 2019 (area = 9.27 km² ; RR = 3.88) in the north-west of the study area. Detected CWD-positive space-time clusters suggest that the risk of CWD is not random. Space-time clusters of CWD can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the Illinois CWD management programme. The area surrounding the older C1 cluster has undergone longer and more intense CWD management compared with C2. Currently, the older C1 cluster is no longer as high risk compared with the newer cluster C2, suggesting that management efforts in C2 should be increased. However, all CWD clusters should be targeted with surveillance, prevention and management programmes, including reducing deer densities to limit further spread of CWD.

Assessment of spatial genetic structure to identify populations at risk for infection of an emerging epizootic disease

Understanding the geographic extent and connectivity of wildlife populations can provide important insights into the management of disease outbreaks but defining patterns of population structure is difficult for widely distributed species. Landscape genetic analyses are powerful methods for identifying cryptic structure and movement patterns that may be associated with spatial epizootic patterns in such cases.We characterized patterns of population substructure and connectivity using microsatellite genotypes from 2,222 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, a region where chronic wasting disease was first detected in 2009. The goal of this study was to evaluate the juxtaposition between population structure, landscape features that influence gene flow, and current disease management units.Clustering analyses identified four to five subpopulations in this region, the edges of which corresponded to ecophysiographic provinces. Subpopulations were further partitioned into 11 clusters with subtle (F ST ≤ 0.041), but significant genetic differentiation. Genetic differentiation was lower and migration rates were higher among neighboring genetic clusters, indicating an underlying genetic cline. Genetic discontinuities were associated with topographic barriers, however.Resistance surface modeling indicated that gene flow was diffuse in homogenous landscapes, but the direction and extent of gene flow were influenced by forest cover, traffic volume, and elevational relief in subregions heterogeneous for these landscape features. Chronic wasting disease primarily occurred among genetic clusters within a single subpopulation and along corridors of high landscape connectivity.These results may suggest a possible correlation between population substructure, landscape connectivity, and the occurrence of diseases for widespread species. Considering these factors may be useful in delineating effective management units, although only the largest features produced appreciable differences in subpopulation structure. Disease mitigation strategies implemented at the scale of ecophysiographic provinces are likely to be more effective than those implemented at finer scales.

Can genetic assignment tests provide insight on the influence of captive egression on the epizootiology of chronic wasting disease?

Identifying the sources of ongoing and novel disease outbreaks is critical for understanding the diffusion of epizootic diseases. Identifying infection sources is difficult when few physical differences separate individuals with different origins. Genetic assignment procedures show great promise for assessing transmission dynamics in such situations. Here, we use genetic assignment tests to determine the source of chronic wasting disease infections in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations. Natural dispersal is thought to facilitate the geographic diffusion of chronic wasting disease, but egression from captive cervid populations represents an alternative source of infection that is difficult to detect due to physical similarities with wild deer. Simulated reference populations were created based on allele frequencies from 1,912 empirical microsatellite genotypes collected in four sampling subregions and five captive facilities. These reference populations were used to assess the likelihood of ancestry and assignment of 1,861 free-ranging deer (1,834 noninfected and 27 infected) and 51 captive individuals to captive or wild populations. The ancestry (Q) and assignment scores (A) for free-ranging deer to wild populations were high (average Q wild = 0.913 and average A wild = 0.951, respectively), but varied among subregions (Q wild = 0.800-0.947, A wild = 0.857-0.976). These findings suggest that captive egression and admixture are rare, but risk may not be spatially uniform. Ancestry and assignment scores for two free-ranging deer with chronic wasting disease sampled in an area where chronic wasting disease was previously unobserved in free-ranging herds indicated a higher likelihood of assignment and proportion of ancestry attributable to captive populations. While we cannot directly assign these individuals to infected facilities, these findings suggest that rare egression events may influence the epizootiology of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging populations. Continued disease surveillance and genetic analyses may further elucidate the relative disease risk attributable to captive and wild sources.

Identification and evaluation of a core microsatellite panel for use in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Background

Microsatellite loci have been used extensively over the past two decades to study the genetic characteristics of non-model species. The ease of microsatellite development and ability to adapt markers from related species has led to the proliferation of available markers for many commonly studied species. Because it is often infeasible to genotype individuals across all available loci, researchers generally rely on subsets of markers. Marker choice can bias inferences made using disparate suites of loci. This has been a primary motivation for efforts to identify uniform marker panels. Here, we use the geographic distribution of previous studies to identify microsatellite loci for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) with the potential for widespread use, and we evaluate the effectiveness of this panel in a portion of the range where few previous studies have been conducted. The purpose was to consolidate the numerous genetic resources for this species into a manageable panel and to provide a uniform methodology that improves comparisons between past and future studies.

Results

We reviewed microsatellite panels from 58 previous or ongoing projects and identified 106 candidate loci. We developed a multiplex protocol and evaluated the efficacy of 17 of the most commonly used loci using 720 DNA samples collected from the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States of America. Amplification errors were detected in six of these loci. The 11 remaining loci were highly polymorphic, exhibited low frequencies of null alleles, and were easy to interpret with the aid of allele binning software.

Conclusions

The development of broadly-applicable, core microsatellite panels has the potential to improve repeatability and comparative ability for commonly studied species. The properties of the consolidated 11 microsatellite panel suggest that they are applicable for many common research objectives for white-tailed deer. The geographic distribution of previous studies using these markers provides a greater degree of confidence regarding the robustness to common sources of error related to amplification anomalies, such as null alleles, relative to loci with more limited use. While this does not replace further evaluation of genotyping errors, it does provide a common platform that benefits future research studies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12863-019-0750-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Why did the buffalo cross the park? Resource shortages, but not infections, drive dispersal in female African buffalo (Syncerus caffer)

Dispersal facilitates population health and maintains resilience in species via gene flow. Adult dispersal occurs in some species, is often facultative, and is poorly understood, but has important management implications, particularly with respect to disease spread. Although the role of adult dispersal in spreading disease has been documented, the potential influence of disease on dispersal has received little attention. African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) are wide-ranging and harbor many pathogens that can affect nearby livestock. Dispersal of adult buffalo has been described, but ecological and social drivers of buffalo dispersal are poorly understood. We investigated drivers of adult buffalo dispersal during a 4-year longitudinal study at Kruger National Park, South Africa. We monitored the spatial movement of 304 female buffalo in two focal areas using satellite and radio collars, capturing each buffalo every 6 months to assess animal traits and disease status. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine whether likelihood of dispersal for individual female buffalo was influenced by animal traits, herd identity, environmental variables, gastrointestinal parasites, or microparasite infections. The likelihood and drivers of buffalo dispersal varied by herd, area, and year. In the Lower Sabie herd, where resources were abundant, younger individuals were more likely to disperse, with most dispersal occurring in the early wet season and during an unusually dry year, 2009. In the resource-poor Crocodile Bridge area, buffalo in poor condition were most likely to disperse. Our findings suggest that dispersal of female buffalo is driven by either seasonal (Lower Sabie) or perhaps social (Crocodile Bridge) resource restriction, indicating resource limitation and dispersal decisions are tightly linked for this social ungulate. We found no direct effects of infections on buffalo dispersal, assuaging fears that highly infectious individuals might be more prone to dispersing, which could accelerate the spatial spread of infectious diseases.

Influence of the geographic distribution of prion protein gene sequence variation on patterns of chronic wasting disease spread in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Managing and controlling the spread of diseases in wild animal populations is challenging, especially for social and mobile species. Effective management benefits from information about disease susceptibility, allowing limited resources to be focused on areas or populations with a higher risk of infection. Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that affects cervids, was detected in Colorado in the late 1960s. CWD was detected in Illinois and Wisconsin in 2002 and has since spread through many counties. Specific nucleotide variations in the prion protein gene (PRNP) sequence have been associated with reduced susceptibility to CWD in white-tailed deer. Though genetic resistance is incomplete, the frequency of deer possessing these mutations in a population is an important factor in disease spread (i.e. herd immunity). In this study we sequenced 625 bp of the PRNP gene from a sampling of 2433 deer from Illinois and Wisconsin. In north-central Illinois where CWD was first detected, counties had a low frequency of protective haplotypes (frequency <0.20); whereas in northwestern Illinois counties, where CWD cases have only more recently been detected, the frequency of protective haplotypes (frequency >0.30) was much higher (p < 0.05). Protective haplotype frequencies varied significantly among infected and uninfected geographic areas. The frequency of protective PRNP haplotypes may contribute to population level susceptibility and may shape the way CWD has spread through Illinois. Analysis of PRNP haplotype distribution could be a useful tool to assess CWD risk and allocate resources to contain and reduce the spread of infection.

Prion protein gene sequence and chronic wasting disease susceptibility in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

The sequence of the prion protein gene (PRNP) affects susceptibility to spongiform encephalopathies, or prion diseases in many species. In white-tailed deer, both coding and non-coding single nucleotide polymorphisms have been identified in this gene that correlate to chronic wasting disease (CWD) susceptibility. Previous studies examined individual nucleotide or amino acid mutations; here we examine all nucleotide polymorphisms and their combined effects on CWD. A 626 bp region of PRNP was examined from 703 free-ranging white-tailed deer. Deer were sampled between 2002 and 2010 by hunter harvest or government culling in Illinois and Wisconsin. Fourteen variable nucleotide positions were identified (4 new and 10 previously reported). We identified 68 diplotypes comprised of 24 predicted haplotypes, with the most common diplotype occurring in 123 individuals. Diplotypes that were found exclusively among positive or negative animals were rare, each occurring in less than 1% of the deer studied. Only one haplotype (C, odds ratio 0.240) and 2 diplotypes (AC and BC, odds ratios of 0.161 and 0.108 respectively) has significant associations with CWD resistance. Each contains mutations (one synonymous nucleotide 555C/T and one nonsynonymous nucleotide 286G/A) at positions reported to be significantly associated with reduced CWD susceptibility. Results suggest that deer populations with higher frequencies of haplotype C or diplotypes AC and BC might have a reduced risk for CWD infection – while populations with lower frequencies may have higher risk for infection. Understanding the genetic basis of CWD has improved our ability to assess herd susceptibility and direct management efforts within CWD infected areas.