Challenges of Estimates in Drug-Related Overdose Deaths in Iran: Evidence from the Literature

The trend of poisonings before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected people and healthcare systems. One of the main challenges was the reduction and change in the pattern of non-COVID-19 diseases and conditions. Moreover, due to the mental burden of the pandemic, the trend of poisonings and abuses changed. In this study, we aimed to assess the trends of poisonings from different agents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the interrupted time series method. This study was conducted at one of the main Tehran referral centers for poisoning, Baharloo Hospital. Pre-COVID-19 period was defined as April 2018 to January 2020 while the COVID-19 time was from February 2020 to March 2022. The total number of monthly poisoning cases in addition to eight categories of drugs/substances/agents were identified, including drugs (such as psychiatric drugs, cardiovascular drugs, and analgesics), opioids, stimulants, methanol, ethanol, cannabis, pesticides, and carbon monoxide. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to compare the pre-pandemic trend of total monthly cases from each category in addition to the proportion (%) of each one. In total, 13,020 cases were poisoned during the study period, among which 6088 belonged to the pre-pandemic period and 6932 were admitted during the COVID-19 era. There was no significant difference in terms of demographic characteristics of patients before and during the pandemic (p-value > 0.05). At the beginning of the pandemic, there was a sudden fall in the number of poisoning patients (- 77.2 cases/month, p-value = 0.003), however, there was a significant increasing trend during the COVID time (3.9 cases/month, p-value = 0.006). Most of the categories had a sharp decrease at the beginning of the pandemic except for methanol and ethanol which had increases, although not significant. Cannabis also had a significant change in slope (- 0.6 cases/month, p-value = 0.016), in addition to the sudden decrease at the beginning of the pandemic (- 10 cases/month, p-value = 0.007). Regarding the proportion of each category from total monthly poisoning cases, methanol, and ethanol had immediate rises of 4.2% per month and 10.1% per month, respectively (both significant). The pandemic had significant effects on the pattern of poisonings from different agents in Iran, the most important of which were alcohol (ethanol and methanol). These differences had policy implications that can be helpful for policymakers and healthcare systems in combating similar situations in the future.