Comparisons of metastatic patterns of colorectal cancer among patients by age group: a population-based study

Construction of a prognostic prediction model for colorectal cancer based on 5-year clinical follow-up data

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prevalent malignant tumor that presents significant challenges to both public health and healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning model based on five years of clinical follow-up data from CRC patients to accurately identify individuals at risk of poor prognosis. This study included 411 CRC patients who underwent surgery at Yixing Hospital and completed the follow-up process. A modeling dataset containing 73 characteristic variables was established by collecting demographic information, clinical blood test indicators, histopathological results, and additional treatment-related information. Decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were selected for modeling based on the features identified through recursive feature elimination (RFE). The Cox proportional hazards model was used as the baseline for model comparison. During the model training process, hyperparameters were optimized using a grid search method. The model performance was comprehensively assessed using multiple metrics, including accuracy, F1 score, Brier score, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis curve. For the selected optimal model, the decision-making process was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The results show that the optimal RFE-XGBoost model achieved an accuracy of 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.90), an F1 score of 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.88), and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% CI 0.82-0.94). Furthermore, the model exhibited superior calibration and clinical utility. SHAP analysis revealed that increased perioperative transfusion quantity, higher tumor AJCC stage, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen level, elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level, advanced age, and elevated carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) level were correlated with increased individual mortality risk. The RFE-XGBoost model demonstrated excellent performance in predicting CRC patient prognosis, and the application of the SHAP method bolstered the model's credibility and utility.

Metastasis patterns and prognosis in young gastric cancer patients: A propensity score‑matched SEER database analysis

BACKGROUND

Whether young patients with metastatic gastric cancer (GC) had distinct metastasis patterns and survival outcomes from older patients remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to explore the metastasis patterns and prognostic factors in young patients and evaluate the survival outcome in comparison to their older counterparts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified patients with metastatic GC in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015. The patients were divided into two groups based on age at diagnosis: younger (≤40 years old) and older (>40 years old). We employed the chi-squared test to compare the clinicopathological characteristics between the two age groups. Furthermore, we conducted survival analyses using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. To balance disparities in baseline characteristics, we employed propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

We identified 5,580 metastatic GC patients from the SEER database, with 237 (4.2%) classified as younger and 5343 (95.8%) as older patients. A total of 237 pairs of patients were generated after adjustment by PSM. Patients in the younger group exhibited a higher proportion of bone-only metastases and a lower proportion of liver-only metastases compared with patients in the older group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that youth was an independent protective factor for overall survival (OS) before and after PSM, but not for gastric cancer-specific survival (GCSS). Among the younger group, patients with liver-only metastasis demonstrated the best prognosis, whereas patients with lung-only metastasis exhibited significantly worse survival outcomes compared with liver-only metastases, even comparable to that of bone metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the older group, the metastatic GC patients in the younger group exhibited more aggressive tumors but better prognoses. The metastasis pattern and its effect on the prognosis of GC varied by age group.

TGF-β and SMAD2/4 Expression in Nonmetastatic and Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common and second cancer with the highest mortality rate in the world. The leading cause of death in colorectal cancer patients is cancer that has metastasized, with the most common site of metastasis being the liver. One of the signaling that regulates malignancy of cancer cells is TGF-β/Smad. Through activation of the Smad2/3/4, TGF-β regulates the EMT Transcription factors to activate Epithelial Mesenchymal Transition (EMT) program. Tumor cells that have undergone EMT have migratory, invasive, and metastatic phenotypes. This study aims to know the differences mRNA expression of TGF-β, Smad2, and Smad4 in metastatic colorectal cancer and non-metastatic groups using real time PCR method. The results showed TGF-β and Smad2 expression in metastatic CRC was higher in the metastatic group than in the non-metastatic group. In contrast, Smad4 expression was found to be higher in the nonmetastatic group. The results suggest that TGF-β/Smad signaling pathway has a role in promoting metastasis and severity in CRC patients.

Nomograms for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer patients with metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify the heterogeneous and homogeneous prognostic factors associated with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and then construct nomograms to predict the prognosis.

METHODS

CRC patients registered in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database between 2010 and 2017 were included. A Cox regression model was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, and Kaplan‒Meier analysis was performed to estimate overall survival (OS). Predictive nomograms were constructed, and their performance was evaluated with C-indexes, calibration curves and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 37,641 patients with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain were included. The median survival times of patients with liver metastasis, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, and brain metastasis were 12.00 months (95% CI 11.73-12.27 months), 10.00 months (95% CI 9.60-10.41 months), 5.00 months (95% CI 4.52-5.48 months), and 3.00 months (95% CI 2.28-3.72 months), respectively. An older age, higher N stage, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen level, no surgery at the primary site and no/unknown treatment with chemotherapy were identified as homogeneous prognostic factors for the four types of metastases. The calibration curves, C-indexes and AUCs exhibited good performance for predicting the OS of patients with distant metastases to the liver, lung, bone, and brain.

CONCLUSIONS

CRC patients with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain exhibited homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, all of which were associated with shorter survival. The nomograms showed good accuracy and may be used as tools for clinicians to predict the prognosis of CRC patients with distant metastasis.

Brain metastasis from colorectal cancer: Treatment, survival, and prognosis

To investigate the clinical characteristics, survival, prognostic factors, and treatment of brain metastasis (BM) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Twenty-one patients with BM from CRC were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive factors for BM and prognostic factors after the diagnosis of BM were examined by univariate and multivariate COX analysis. The time from the development of extracranial metastases, including lung, bone, and liver, to the occurrence of BM was recorded separately. The median overall survival time was 7 months. In univariate prognostic analysis, median survival with multimodal therapy was better than that with unimodal therapy (10 months vs 3 months, P = .000). In addition, median survival with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) < 70, 1 BM lesion, primary tumor stage of II-III, extracranial lesions < 2, and no extracranial metastasis were much better than the other groups (P < .05 of all). Although there was not a significant difference in median survival between patients receiving combination treatment with bevacizumab and those who did not, treatment with bevacizumab was associated with better survival (10 months vs 5 months, P = .436). The time intervals from bone, liver, and lung metastases to BM were 3, 6.5, and 11 months, respectively. Based on multivariate Cox analysis, KPS and treatment modalities were independent prognosis factors (P = .039 and P = .000, respectively). CRC patients with a high KPS and multimodal treatment have improved survival.

Efficacy, safety and prognostic factors in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer treated with trifluridine/tipiracil plus bevacizumab in a real-world setting

We evaluated the efficacy and safety of trifluridine/tipiracil (TAS-102) plus bevacizumab in treating refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in a retrospective, observational study. Patients refractory or intolerant to standard therapies received TAS-102 (30-35 mg/m² twice daily on days 1-5 and days 8-12 every 28 days) plus bevacizumab 5 mg/kg on days 1 and 15. Clinical and pathological characteristics, overall response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) data were collected and analysed. Thirty-five patients were treated from July 2019 to October 2021 (median age 64 years). The majority of patients (68.6%) were receiving TAS-102 plus bevacizumab as third-line treatment. Patients received a median of 4 (range 2-15) cycles of treatment. Among 31 patients evaluable for response (88.6%), ORR and DCR were 3.2% and 51.6%, respectively. After a median 11.6 months' follow-up, median PFS was 4.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.4-5.1) months and median OS was 9.3 (95% CI 6.6-12.1) months. The most common grade 3-4 toxicities were neutropenia, asthenia and nausea/vomiting, and there were no treatment-related deaths. This real-world study confirms the efficacy and safety of TAS-102 plus bevacizumab in patients with refractory mCRC.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer with distant metastasis

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cancer burden, and prognosis is determined by many demographic and clinicopathologic factors. The present study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer patients with distant metastasis.

Methods

Colorectal cancer patients with distant metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival, and validation was performed.

Results

A total of 7099 stage IV colorectal cancer patients were enrolled in the construction cohort. The median overall survival was 20.0 (95% CI 19.3–20.7) months. Age at diagnosis, marital status, race, primary tumour site, tumour grade, CEA level, T stage, N stage, presence of bone, brain, liver and lung metastasis, surgery for primary site and performance of chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram was constructed and the calibration curve showed satisfactory agreement. The C-index was 0.742 (95% CI 0.726–0.758). In the validation cohort (7098 patients), the nomogram showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration with a C-index of 0.746 (95% CI 0.730–0.762).

Conclusion

A series of factors associated with the survival of CRC patients with distant metastasis were found. Based on the identified factors, a nomogram was generated to predict the survival of stage IV colorectal cancer patients. The predictive model showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration, which can provide a reference for survival estimation and individualized treatment decisions.

A Prognostic Nomogram of Colon Cancer With Liver Metastasis: A Study of the US SEER Database and a Chinese Cohort

Background

Among colon cancer patients, liver metastasis is a commonly deadly phenomenon, but there are few prognostic models for these patients.

Methods

The clinicopathologic data of colon cancer with liver metastasis (CCLM) patients were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly divided into training and internal validation sets based on the ratio of 7:3. A prognostic nomogram was established with Cox analysis in the training set, which was validated by two independent validation sets.

Results

A total of 5,700 CCLM patients were included. Age, race, tumor size, tumor site, histological type, grade, AJCC N status, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), lung metastasis, bone metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy were independently associated with the overall survival (OS) of CCLM in the training set, which were used to establish a nomogram. The AUCs of 1-, 2- and 3-year were higher than or equal to 0.700 in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, indicating the favorable effects of our nomogram. Besides, whether in overall or subgroup analysis, the risk score calculated by this nomogram can divide CCLM patients into high-, middle- and low-risk groups, which suggested that the nomogram can significantly determine patients with different prognosis and is suitable for different patients.

Conclusion

Higher age, the race of black, larger tumor size, higher grade, histological type of mucinous adenocarcinoma and signet ring cell carcinoma, higher N stage, RCC, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, without surgery, without chemotherapy, and elevated CEA were independently associated with poor prognosis of CCLM patients. A nomogram incorporating the above variables could accurately predict the prognosis of CCLM.

Hemicolectomy Does Not Provide Survival Benefit for Right-Sided Mucinous Colon Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The extent of bowel resection is widely debated in colon cancer surgery. Right hemicolectomy (RHC) and partial colectomy (PC) are the most common operation options for right-sided colon cancer (RCC). However, there are still no treatment guidelines or published studies to guide surgical options for mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) of RCC.

METHODS

Patients with MAC and non-specific adenocarcinoma (AC) of RCC who underwent RHC and PC from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrieved. The general characteristics and survival were compared and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 27,910 RCC patients were enrolled in this study, among them 3,413 were MAC. The results showed that race, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, perineural invasion (PNI), tumor size, tumor location, TNM stage, liver metastasis, chemotherapy were significantly different between MAC and AC groups. The MAC group had similar dissected lymph nodes, but more positive lymph nodes than the AC group. The overall survival (OS) of the MAC group was poorer than that of the AC group, but cancer-specific survival (CSS) was similar between the two groups. The RHC subgroup of the MAC group had more patients of age ≤60 years, larger tumor size, cecum/ascending colon location and dissected lymph nodes than the PC subgroup, but similar positive lymph nodes, perioperative mortality, OS and CSS as the PC subgroup. Moreover, the univariate and multivariable analyses for the survival of RCC patients with MAC showed that RHC might not be a superior predictor for OS and CSS compared with PC.

CONCLUSIONS

RHC could not dissect more positive lymph nodes or provide long-term survival benefits for RCC patients with MAC compared with PC. This study could provide some evidence for surgery treatment selection for MAC of RCC, which has important clinical value in individual management of colon cancer patients.

Impact of Single-organ Metastasis to the Liver or Lung and Genetic Mutation Status on Prognosis in Stage IV Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The impact of primary tumor site on overall survival in patients with stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) with single-organ metastases to the liver or lung has not been studied. Furthermore, the prognostic significance of commonly tested genetic variants such as KRAS mutation and microsatellite instability (MSI) are not well-described in this population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This National Cancer Database was used to identify 38,328 patients with CRC that presented with synchronous metastases to the liver or lung between 2010 and 2014. The primary outcome was overall survival, and groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

On unadjusted analysis, median survival was significantly longer for patients with lung metastases compared with those with liver metastases for left-sided (27 vs. 25 months; P = .02) and right-sided CRC (19 vs. 15 months; P < .001), whereas rectosigmoid and rectal cancers showed no difference. On multivariate analysis, patients with liver metastases demonstrated worse survival compared with those with lung metastasis (hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.43; P < .001). These trends were confirmed in patients that received chemotherapy but did not have their primary tumor or metastases resected. In patients with genetic testing, both KRAS mutants and MSI tumors had worse survival in left-sided and rectal tumors with liver metastases, but had similar survival to KRAS wild type tumors and microsatellite stable tumors, respectively, across other primary site and metastatic patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with single-organ metastases to the liver or lung, primary tumor site has an impact on overall survival. Further, KRAS mutation and MSI status are of prognostic importance in selected patients with single-organ metastases.