Predicting physiological aging rates from a range of quantitative traits using machine learning

Spatiotemporal transcriptomic profiling and modeling of mouse brain at single-cell resolution reveals cell proximity effects of aging and rejuvenation

Old age is associated with a decline in cognitive function and an increase in neurodegenerative disease risk1. Brain aging is complex and accompanied by many cellular changes2-20. However, the influence that aged cells have on neighboring cells and how this contributes to tissue decline is unknown. More generally, the tools to systematically address this question in aging tissues have not yet been developed. Here, we generate spatiotemporal data at single-cell resolution for the mouse brain across lifespan, and we develop the first machine learning models based on spatial transcriptomics ('spatial aging clocks') to reveal cell proximity effects during brain aging and rejuvenation. We collect a single-cell spatial transcriptomics brain atlas of 4.2 million cells from 20 distinct ages and across two rejuvenating interventions-exercise and partial reprogramming. We identify spatial and cell type-specific transcriptomic fingerprints of aging, rejuvenation, and disease, including for rare cell types. Using spatial aging clocks and deep learning models, we find that T cells, which infiltrate the brain with age, have a striking pro-aging proximity effect on neighboring cells. Surprisingly, neural stem cells have a strong pro-rejuvenating effect on neighboring cells. By developing computational tools to identify mediators of these proximity effects, we find that pro-aging T cells trigger a local inflammatory response likely via interferon-γ whereas pro-rejuvenating neural stem cells impact the metabolism of neighboring cells possibly via growth factors (e.g. vascular endothelial growth factor) and extracellular vesicles, and we experimentally validate some of these predictions. These results suggest that rare cells can have a drastic influence on their neighbors and could be targeted to counter tissue aging. We anticipate that these spatial aging clocks will not only allow scalable assessment of the efficacy of interventions for aging and disease but also represent a new tool for studying cell-cell interactions in many spatial contexts.

Biomarker signatures associated with ageing free of major chronic diseases: results from a population-based sample of the EPIC-Potsdam cohort

BACKGROUND

A number of biomarkers denoting various pathophysiological pathways have been implicated in the aetiology and risk of age-related diseases. Hence, the combined impact of multiple biomarkers in relation to ageing free of major chronic diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, has not been sufficiently explored.

METHODS

We measured concentrations of 13 biomarkers in a random subcohort of 2,500 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Potsdam study. Chronic disease-free ageing was defined as reaching the age of 70 years within study follow-up without major chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes or cancer. Using a novel machine-learning technique, we aimed to identify biomarker clusters and explore their association with chronic disease-free ageing in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis taking socio-demographic, lifestyle and anthropometric factors into account.

RESULTS

Of the participants who reached the age of 70 years, 321 met our criteria for chronic-disease free ageing. Machine learning analysis identified three distinct biomarker clusters, among which a signature characterised by high concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, adiponectin and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 and low concentrations of triglycerides was associated with highest odds for ageing free of major chronic diseases. After multivariable adjustment, the association was attenuated by socio-demographic, lifestyle and adiposity indicators, pointing to the relative importance of these factors as determinants of healthy ageing.

CONCLUSION

These data underline the importance of exploring combinations of biomarkers rather than single molecules in understanding complex biological pathways underpinning healthy ageing.

Measuring healthy ageing: current and future tools

Human ageing is a complex, multifactorial process characterised by physiological damage, increased risk of age-related diseases and inevitable functional deterioration. As the population of the world grows older, placing significant strain on social and healthcare resources, there is a growing need to identify reliable and easy-to-employ markers of healthy ageing for early detection of ageing trajectories and disease risk. Such markers would allow for the targeted implementation of strategies or treatments that can lessen suffering, disability, and dependence in old age. In this review, we summarise the healthy ageing scores reported in the literature, with a focus on the past 5 years, and compare and contrast the variables employed. The use of approaches to determine biological age, molecular biomarkers, ageing trajectories, and multi-omics ageing scores are reviewed. We conclude that the ideal healthy ageing score is multisystemic and able to encompass all of the potential alterations associated with ageing. It should also be longitudinal and able to accurately predict ageing complications at an early stage in order to maximize the chances of successful early intervention.

Explainable machine learning framework to predict personalized physiological aging

Attaining personalized healthy aging requires accurate monitoring of physiological changes and identifying subclinical markers that predict accelerated or delayed aging. Classic biostatistical methods most rely on supervised variables to estimate physiological aging and do not capture the full complexity of inter-parameter interactions. Machine learning (ML) is promising, but its black box nature eludes direct understanding, substantially limiting physician confidence and clinical usage. Using a broad population dataset from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) study including routine biological variables and after selection of XGBoost as the most appropriate algorithm, we created an innovative explainable ML framework to determine a Personalized physiological age (PPA). PPA predicted both chronic disease and mortality independently of chronological age. Twenty-six variables were sufficient to predict PPA. Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), we implemented a precise quantitative associated metric for each variable explaining physiological (i.e., accelerated or delayed) deviations from age-specific normative data. Among the variables, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) displays a major relative weight in the estimation of PPA. Finally, clustering profiles of identical contextualized explanations reveal different aging trajectories opening opportunities to specific clinical follow-up. These data show that PPA is a robust, quantitative and explainable ML-based metric that monitors personalized health status. Our approach also provides a complete framework applicable to different datasets or variables, allowing precision physiological age estimation.

Measuring healthy ageing: current and future tools

Human ageing is a complex, multifactorial process characterised by physiological damage, increased risk of age-related diseases and inevitable functional deterioration. As the population of the world grows older, placing significant strain on social and healthcare resources, there is a growing need to identify reliable and easy-to-employ markers of healthy ageing for early detection of ageing trajectories and disease risk. Such markers would allow for the targeted implementation of strategies or treatments that can lessen suffering, disability, and dependence in old age. In this review, we summarise the healthy ageing scores reported in the literature, with a focus on the past 5 years, and compare and contrast the variables employed. The use of approaches to determine biological age, molecular biomarkers, ageing trajectories, and multi-omics ageing scores are reviewed. We conclude that the ideal healthy ageing score is multisystemic and able to encompass all of the potential alterations associated with ageing. It should also be longitudinal and able to accurately predict ageing complications at an early stage in order to maximize the chances of successful early intervention.

How general practitioners perceive the aging trajectory of oldest-old - A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

A new population of older people is growing: the oldest-old. The care of the oldest-old (individuals aged 90 and over) is a new challenge in primary care. This study aimed to analyze the perception of General Practitioners (GP) on (1) the aging process of their patients up to a very advanced age, (2) how to adapt their practice to the care of these patients.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study using focus group (face to face) and individual (video call) interviews of GPs in southwest France. The sampling was purposive. We analyzed the interviews using an inductive approach based on the phases of thematic analysis. We used researchers' triangulation during the process. Collection was concluded when saturation was reached.

RESULTS

Three focus groups and one individual interview were conducted with a total of seventeen general practitioners. GP perception concerning aging and very advanced age were based on their personal experience and their daily clinical practice. Aging was perceived as an individual, unconscious, unpredictable and irreversible phenomenon. The shift towards "very old age" appeared inevitable. It could be a physical or psychological shift, or patients neglecting themselves or lacking a project. The care of the oldest-old became more specific and individual, adapted to the wishes of the patient. Those adaptations involve medical disengagement to focus on the most essential outcomes. The objectives of health care needed to be less strict with limited invasive practices. Prevention needed to focus mainly on prevention of falls and limitation of functional decline.

CONCLUSION

GPs identified an inevitable and unpredictable shift from old age to very old age. The adaption of the theory of disengagement allowed us to identify a medical disengagement of the GPs in the care of their oldest patients.

Cell-type-specific aging clocks to quantify aging and rejuvenation in neurogenic regions of the brain

The diversity of cell types is a challenge for quantifying aging and its reversal. Here we develop 'aging clocks' based on single-cell transcriptomics to characterize cell-type-specific aging and rejuvenation. We generated single-cell transcriptomes from the subventricular zone neurogenic region of 28 mice, tiling ages from young to old. We trained single-cell-based regression models to predict chronological age and biological age (neural stem cell proliferation capacity). These aging clocks are generalizable to independent cohorts of mice, other regions of the brains, and other species. To determine if these aging clocks could quantify transcriptomic rejuvenation, we generated single-cell transcriptomic datasets of neurogenic regions for two interventions-heterochronic parabiosis and exercise. Aging clocks revealed that heterochronic parabiosis and exercise reverse transcriptomic aging in neurogenic regions, but in different ways. This study represents the first development of high-resolution aging clocks from single-cell transcriptomic data and demonstrates their application to quantify transcriptomic rejuvenation.

An evaluation of aging measures: from biomarkers to clocks

With the increasing number of aged population and growing burden of healthy aging demands, a rational standard for evaluation aging is in urgent need. The advancement of medical testing technology and the prospering of artificial intelligence make it possible to evaluate the biological status of aging from a more comprehensive view. In this review, we introduced common aging biomarkers and concluded several famous aging clocks. Aging biomarkers reflect changes in the organism at a molecular or cellular level over time while aging clocks tend to be more of a generalization of the overall state of the organism. We expect to construct a framework for aging evaluation measurement from both micro and macro perspectives. Especially, population-specific aging clocks and multi-omics aging clocks may better fit the demands to evaluate aging in a comprehensive and multidimensional manner and make a detailed classification to represent different aging rates at tissue/organ levels. This framework will promisingly provide a crucial basis for disease diagnosis and intervention assessment in geroscience.

Minimum standards for evaluating machine-learned models of high-dimensional data

The maturation of machine learning and technologies that generate high dimensional data have led to the growth in the number of predictive models, such as the “epigenetic clock”. While powerful, machine learning algorithms run a high risk of overfitting, particularly when training data is limited, as is often the case with high-dimensional data (“large p, small n”). Making independent validation a requirement of “algorithmic biomarker” development would bring greater clarity to the field by more efficiently identifying prediction or classification models to prioritize for further validation and characterization. Reproducibility has been a mainstay in science, but only recently received attention in defining its various aspects and how to apply these principles to machine learning models. The goal of this paper is merely to serve as a call-to-arms for greater rigor and attention paid to newly developed models for prediction or classification.