Early tumor shrinkage as a predictor of favorable outcomes in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with FOLFIRINOX

Evaluation of the prognosis in patients with small-cell lung cancer treated by chemotherapy using tumor shrinkage rate-based radiomics

BACKGROUND

Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death. However, the prognostic value of the tumor shrinkage rate (TSR) after chemotherapy for SCLC is still unknown.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 235 patients with SCLC. The TSR cutoff was determined based on receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The associations of TSR with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Survival curves were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Recurrence patterns after first-line treatment were summarized in a pie chart. A nomogram was constructed to validate the predictive role of the TSR in SCLC.

RESULTS

The TSR cutoff was identified to be  - 6.6%. Median PFS and OS were longer in the group with a TSR < -6.6% than in the group with a TSR ≥ - 6.6%. PFS and OS were also longer in patients with extensive SCLC when the TSR was < - 6.6% than when it was > - 6.6%. Brain metastasis-free survival was better in the group with a TSR < - 6.6%. There was a significant positive correlation between TSR and PFS. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that the TSR, patient age, and previous radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS while TSR and M stage were independent prognostic factors for PFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The TSR may prove to be a good indicator of OS and PFS in patients receiving chemotherapy-based first-line treatment for SCLC.

Early tumor shrinkage as a prognostic predictor in chemotherapy-naïve patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer treated with modified FOLFIRINOX or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination therapy: An exploratory analysis of JCOG1407

BACKGROUND

Early tumor shrinkage (ETS) is a prognostic predictor for patients treated with chemotherapy in colorectal cancer, although scarce studies evaluated its potential in locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). In this exploratory analysis of JCOG1407, a randomized phase II study comparing modified 5-fluorouracil, levofolinate, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (mFOLFIRINOX) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GnP), we evaluated whether ETS can predict prognosis of patients with LAPC.

METHODS

Of the 126 patients enrolled in JCOG1407, 112 with measurable lesions were included in this study. ETS was defined as a ≥20 % reduction in tumor diameter compared with baseline at the initial imaging assessment 6-10 weeks after initiating chemotherapy. Patients were divided into the ETS (achieved ETS) and non-ETS (failed to achieve ETS) groups based on their ETS status. The impact of ETS on overall survival (OS) was compared using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Fourteen of 55 (25.5 %) and 24 of 57 (42.1 %) patients in the mFOLFIRINOX and GnP arms, respectively, achieved ETS. In the overall population, mFOLFIRINOX arm, and GnP arm, the median OS in the ETS and non-ETS groups was 27.1 and 20.4, 29.8 and 20.6, and 24.1 and 20.4, months, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios of OS for the ETS group in the overall population, mFOLFIRINOX arm, and GnP arm were 0.451 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.270-0.754), 0.371 (95 % CI: 0.149-0.926), and 0.508 (95 % CI: 0.255-1.004), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ETS may be a prognostic predictor in chemotherapy-naïve patients with LAPC treated with mFOLFIRINOX or GnP.

Early Tumor Shrinkage and Depth of Response as Predictors of Survival for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer: An Exploratory Analysis of JCOG1113

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest that early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) reflect outcomes of chemotherapy in various cancers. This study evaluated the association of ETS and DpR with clinical outcomes using data from JCOG1113, which demonstrated the non-inferiority of gemcitabine plus S-1 (GS) to gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GC) for chemotherapy-naïve advanced biliary tract cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In total, 354 (289 with measurable target lesions) patients enrolled in JCOG1113 were divided into ETS-unachieved and ETS-achieved groups (≥20% tumor reduction at week 6) and DpR-low and DpR-high groups (≥40% maximum shrinkage) until 12 weeks after enrollment. The impact of ETS and DpR on survival outcome was evaluated using the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The proportions of patients in the ETS-achieved and DpR-high groups were similar between the 2 treatment arms. The hazard ratios (HRs) of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the ETS-achieved group were 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-0.93) and 0.60 (95%CI, 0.44-0.81), respectively. The HRs of PFS and OS for the DpR-high group were 0.67 (95%CI, 0.48-0.94) and 0.64 (95%CI, 0.46-0.90), respectively. In the subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot analysis, most patients in the ETS-achieved group in the GC arm did not experience disease progression after 12 weeks from the landmark.

CONCLUSION

As on-treatment markers, ETS and DpR were effective tools. ETS was clinically useful, because it can be used to evaluate the outcomes of treatment early at a specific time.

Real-world dose reduction of standard and modified FOLFIRINOX in metastatic pancreatic cancer: a systematic review, evidence-mapping, and meta-analysis

Background

FOLFIRINOX, used in metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC), is highly efficacious but also toxic. Various dose modifications for FOLFIRINOX have been introduced to reduce toxicity. However, these studies lack a unified pattern for 'planned' dose modification, and the 'actually administered' dose varied more.

Objective

To map a 10-year trend for 'planned' and 'actual' doses of FOLFIRINOX and investigate the clinical outcomes according to dose modification.

Data sources and methods

A comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted from January 2011 to September 2021. All studies for FOLFIRINOX as first-line treatment in MPC were considered. Selected studies were firstly classified according to prospective versus retrospective research, secondly standard versus modified FOLFIRINOX, and thirdly 'planned' versus 'actual' dose. For evidence-mapping for the trend of dose modification, we developed a web-based interactive bubble-plot program (www.RDI-map.com). Objective response rate (ORR) and hematologic toxicity were set as endpoints for the comparison of clinical outcomes according to dose modification.

Results

A total of 37 studies were identified for evidence-mapping (11 prospective and 26 retrospective studies). There were 12 different types of 'planned' dose modification in FOLFIRINOX ranging 75-100% oxaliplatin, 75-100% irinotecan, 0-100% 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) bolus, and 75-133% 5-FU continuous injection. The 'actual' dose further decreased to 54-96%, 61-88%, 0-92%, and 63-98%, respectively. For the standard versus modified FOLFIRINOX, the ORR was 28.2% (95% CI: 22.5-33.9%) and 33.8% (95% CI: 30.3-37.3%), respectively (p = 0.100), and the incidence of febrile neutropenia was 11.6% (95% CI: 0-16.0%) and 5.5% (95% CI: 0-8.9%), respectively (p = 0.030).

Conclusions

RDI-map.com enables multifactorial evidence-mapping for practical FOLFIRINOX dose reduction. The pattern of dose modification was not consistent across studies, and there was a significant gap between the 'planned' and 'actual' doses. Modified FOLFIRINOX showed similar efficacy to the standard regimen with reduced incidence of febrile neutropenia.

Assessing prognostic value of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in first-line therapy for patients with advanced unresectable pancreatic cancer

Background

The prognostic potential of early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in pancreatic cancer (PC) is unclear. Here, we recruited 90 patients with recurrent and metastatic PC (RMPC) who had received chemotherapy as first-line therapy to assess the prognostic potential of these markers.

Methods

ETS is characterized as a ≥ 20% depletion in the sum-of-the-longest-diameters (SLD) of measurable tumor lesions at 6–12 weeks than the baseline. DpR is the maximum shrinkage (%) from the baseline to nadir. We evaluated corrections in ETS and DpR with survival.

Results

Of the 63 patients in which ETS assessment was possible, 21 (33.3%) achieved ETS. We found a significant association between the incidence of ETS and an improved rate of progression-free survival (PFS; 6.5 vs. 2.2 months; p < 0.001) and overall survival (OS; 12.1 vs. 6.0 months; p = 0.014). The median value of DpR was − 23.66%. DpR was also related to improved PFS (9.3 vs. 3.1 months; p < 0.001) and OS (18.2 vs. 7.3 months; p < 0.001). Patients who had distant metastasis, not local recurrence, with ETS showed markedly better outcomes. In a multivariate model, both ETS and DpR were independent predictors of OS in the whole population.

Conclusions

ETS and DpR may predict favorable outcomes for RMPC patients who had received chemotherapy as first-line therapy, independent of the agents used. Further studies on the exploratory analyses of the optimum ETS cut-off value in recurrent PC patients to predict favorable clinical outcomes are required.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01870-x.

The impact of early tumor shrinkage on conversion surgery and the survival in patients with unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer

PURPOSES

Owing to recent advances in induction chemo(radio)therapy, patients with unresectable locally advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (UR-LA PDAC) are sometimes indicated for conversion surgery (CS). However, the predictors for proceeding to CS are unclear. We investigated the predictive factors for CS, especially at the early stage of induction therapy, and evaluated the impact of CS on the survival.

METHODS

We analyzed 49 UR-LA PDAC patients retrospectively and investigated the predictive factors for proceeding to CS, including early tumor shrinkage (ETS). ETS in this study was defined as shrinkage of tumors by ≥ 15% at 8-12 weeks after the induction of treatment.

RESULTS

CS was performed in 21 patients (43%). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, ETS was an independent predictive factor for successfully proceeding to CS (P = 0.046). The median overall survival (OS) was not reached in the CS group but was 17.2 months in the non-CS group (P < 0.0001). A multivariate analysis by the Cox proportional hazard model identified CS as the only significant independent determinant of the OS (hazard ratio: 0.26, 95% confidence interval: 0.07-0.94, P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

ETS by induction therapy is a significant predictor of proceeding to CS among patients with UR-LA PDAC. CS was the only independent prognostic factor for this population.

Proposal of predictive model on survival in unresectable pancreatic cancer receiving systemic chemotherapy

Aims: To construct a predictive model for overall survival (OS) in unresectable pancreatic cancer (PaC) undergoing systemic chemotherapy and to confirm its accuracy in an independent cohort. Patients and methods: The training set (Ts) and the validation set (Vs) included 93 patients (median age=71 years) and 75 patients (median age=76 years). In the Ts, we examined variables linked to OS by uni- and multivariate analyses and constructed a predictive model for OS. Next, we evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed model in the Vs. Results: In the multivariate analysis for the Ts, PaC stage IV (P=0.0020) and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 ≥437.5 IU/l (P=0.0237) were identified to be significant factors associated with OS. Patients with PaC stage IV or not were given a score of 1 or 0, whereas patients with CA19-9 ≥437.5 IU/l or <437.5 IU/l were given a score of 1 or 0. Sum of the point of PaC stage (0 or 1) and CA19-9 (0 or 1) was defined as "PaC-CA score". In the Ts, there were 16 patients with score 0, 40 with score 1 and 37 with score 2, while in the Vs, there were 9 patients with score 0, 32 with score 1 and 34 with score 2. Overall P values reached significance in the Ts (P=0.0002), the Vs (P=0.0029) and the combined Ts and Vs (P<0.0001) among patients with PaC score 0, 1 and 2. Conclusion: PaC-CA score can be helpful for risk stratification in PaC patients undergoing systemic chemotherapy.

Early Tumor Shrinkage and Depth of Response Evaluation in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Treated with First Line Chemotherapy: An Observational Retrospective Cohort Study

Early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DoR) predict favorable outcomes in metastatic colorectal cancer. We aim to evaluate their prognostic role in metastatic pancreatic cancer (PC) patients treated with first-line modified-FOLFIRINOX (FOLFOXIRI) or Gemcitabine + Nab-paclitaxel (GemNab). Hence, 138 patients were tested for ETS, defined as a ≥20% reduction in the sum of target lesions’ longest diameters (SLD) after 6–8 weeks from baseline, and DoR, i.e., the maximum percentage shrinkage in the SLD from baseline. Association of ETS and DoR with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed. ETS was reached in 49 patients (39.5% in the FOLFOXIRI, 29.8% in the GemNab group; p = 0.280). In the overall population, ETS was significantly associated with better PFS (8.0 vs. 4.8 months, p < 0.001) and OS (13.2 vs. 9.7 months, p = 0.001). Median DoR was −27.5% (−29.4% with FOLFOXIRI and −21.4% with GemNab, p = 0.016): DoR was significantly associated with better PFS (9.0 vs. 6.7 months, p < 0.001) and OS (14.3 vs. 11.1 months, p = 0.031). Multivariate analysis confirmed both ETS and DoR are independently associated with PFS and OS. In conclusion, our study added evidence on the role of ETS and DoR in the prediction of outcome of PC patients treated with first-line combination chemotherapy.

Enteral Activation of WR-2721 Mediates Radioprotection and Improved Survival from Lethal Fractionated Radiation

Unresectable pancreatic cancer is almost universally lethal because chemotherapy and radiation cannot completely stop the growth of the cancer. The major problem with using radiation to approximate surgery in unresectable disease is that the radiation dose required to ablate pancreatic cancer exceeds the tolerance of the nearby duodenum. WR-2721, also known as amifostine, is a well-known radioprotector, but has significant clinical toxicities when given systemically. WR-2721 is a prodrug and is converted to its active metabolite, WR-1065, by alkaline phosphatases in normal tissues. The small intestine is highly enriched in these activating enzymes, and thus we reasoned that oral administration of WR-2721 just before radiation would result in localized production of the radioprotective WR-1065 in the small intestine, providing protective benefits without the significant systemic side effects. Here, we show that oral WR-2721 is as effective as intraperitoneal WR-2721 in promoting survival of intestinal crypt clonogens after morbid irradiation. Furthermore, oral WR-2721 confers full radioprotection and survival after lethal upper abdominal irradiation of 12.5 Gy × 5 fractions (total of 62.5 Gy, EQD2 = 140.6 Gy). This radioprotection enables ablative radiation therapy in a mouse model of pancreatic cancer and nearly triples the median survival compared to controls. We find that the efficacy of oral WR-2721 stems from its selective accumulation in the intestine, but not in tumors or other normal tissues, as determined by in vivo mass spectrometry analysis. Thus, we demonstrate that oral WR-2721 is a well-tolerated, and quantitatively selective, radioprotector of the intestinal tract that is capable of enabling clinically relevant ablative doses of radiation to the upper abdomen without unacceptable gastrointestinal toxicity.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa-mannose-sensitive hemagglutinin inhibits pancreatic cancer cell proliferation and induces apoptosis via the EGFR pathway and caspase signaling

Pseudomonas aeruginosa-mannose-sensitive hemagglutinin (PA-MSHA) has demonstrated efficacy against several solid tumors. In this study, we found that PA-MSHA inhibited the proliferation of PANC-1 and SW1990 pancreatic cancer cells, but had no obvious effects on HPDE6-C7 normal human pancreatic duct epithelial cells. Electron microscopy revealed the presence of apoptotic bodies and intracellular vacuole formation in PA-MSHA-treated pancreatic cancer cells. Flow cytometric analysis indicated the rate of apoptosis correlated with the PA-MSHA concentration. We observed a decrease in cell fractions in G0/G1 and G2/M phases, and an increase in the fraction in S phase (p < 0.01). PA-MSHA thus caused cell cycle arrest. Increasing concentrations of PA-MSHA did not alter total levels of EGFR, AKT or ERK, but levels of the corresponding phosphoproteins decreased. PA-MSHA also reduced tumor volume in a xenograft mouse model of pancreatic cancer (p < 0.01). Furthermore, caspase-3 levels decreased while the levels of cleaved caspase-3 increased (p < 0.01). These data suggest that by blocking cell cycle progression, PA-MSHA induces apoptosis and inhibits tumor growth. PA-MSHA-mediated inhibition of EGFR signaling and activation of the caspase pathway may play an important role in the induction of apoptosis in pancreatic cancer cells.

Effect of pretreatment psoas muscle mass on survival for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer undergoing systemic chemotherapy

To the best of our knowledge, there are few previous studies that have investigated the effect of decreased skeletal muscle mass (DSMM) on survival in patients with unresectable advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) who are undergoing systemic chemotherapy. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the impact of DSMM, as determined by the psoas muscle index (PMI) following computed tomography and prior to systemic chemotherapy, on the outcomes of patients with unresectable APC (n=61). The primary endpoint used was the overall survival (OS) rate. The OS rates in the PMI-High group (exceeds the median PMI value in each gender) were retrospectively compared with those in the PMI-Low group (below the median PMI value in each gender), and factors associated with OS were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. The study cohort included 31 male and 30 female patients with a median age of 72 years, 13 of whom were stage IVA, and 48 were stage IVB. The median PMI in males was 4.3 cm²/m² (range, 1.6-8.2 cm²/m²), while that in females was 2.3 cm²/m² (range, 0.7-6.1 cm²/m²). The proportion of patients with performance status 0 in the PMI-High group was significantly high, compared with that in the PMI-Low group [83.3% (25/30) vs. 58.1% (18/31); P=0.0486]. Body mass index in the PMI-High group was significantly higher compared with that in the PMI-Low group (P=0.0154). The 1-year cumulative survival rate was 43.3% in the PMI-High group and 12.9% in the PMI-Low group (P=0.0027). Following multivariate analysis, PMI (P=0.0036), prothrombin time (P=0.0044) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (P=0.0451) were identified to be significant predictors of OS. In conclusion, DSMM, as determined by the PMI, could be a significant predictor of prognosis in patients with unresectable APC who are receiving systemic chemotherapy.

Depth of response predicts the clinical outcome of advanced HER2-positive gastric cancer to trastuzumab-based first-line chemotherapy

PURPOSE

Accumulating evidence suggests that response-related parameters such as depth of response (DpR) might be associated with survival in colorectal cancer, which has not been shown in gastric cancer. This study aimed to evaluate whether DpR was associated with clinical outcomes in HER2-positive AGC patients treated with trastuzumab-based chemotherapy.

METHODS

Fifty-seven HER2-positive AGC patients who were treated with trastuzumab in combination with fluoropyrimidines plus cisplatin therapy as first-line treatment were retrospectively enrolled. DpR was defined as the percent maximal tumor shrinkage of target lesions observed at the lowest point compared with baseline. The cutoff DpR level to discriminate better survival was based on receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Association of DpR with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Median DpR level was 56.8% (range -37.9 to 100%). In multivariate models adjusted for relevant variables, DpR, as a dichotomized variable with a cutoff level of 50% and a continuous variable, was significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.39 and 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.68 and 0.96-0.98) and OS (HR 0.38 and 0.98; 95% CI 0.21-0.70 and 0.97-0.99). Clinically meaningful differences in PFS (median, 9.8 vs. 4.1 months; p < 0.001) and OS (median, 24.7 vs. 12.8 months; p < 0.001) were observed between the high DpR (≥50%) and the low DpR groups (<50%).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher DpR predicted favorable outcomes following trastuzumab-based chemotherapy in HER2-positive AGC patients.