A nomogram based on serum bilirubin and albumin levels predicts survival in gastric cancer patients

Computed tomography-based radiomics nomogram for predicting therapeutic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer : A scale for treatment predicting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy results in various responses when used to treat locally advanced gastric cancer, we aimed to develop and validate a predictive model of the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

A total of 128 patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who underwent pre-treatment computed tomography (CT) scanning followed by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were included (training cohort: n = 64; validation cohort: n = 64). We built a radiomics score combined with laboratory parameters to create a nomogram for predicting the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and calculating scores for risk factors.

RESULTS

The radiomics score system demonstrated good stability and prediction performance for the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, with the area under the curve of the training and validation cohorts being 0.8 and 0.64, respectively. The radiomics score proved to be an independent risk factor affecting the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. In addition to the radiomics score, four other risk factors were included in the nomogram, namely the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, total bilirubin, ALT/AST, and CA199. The model had a C-index of 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that radiomics features could be potential biomarkers for the early prediction of the response to neoadjuvant treatment.

The combination of preoperative fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio and postoperative TNM stage (FAR-TNM) predicts the survival in gastric cancer patients after gastrectomy

OBJECTIVE

There are many factors that affect the survival of patients with gastric cancer, such as TNM stage, the patient's nutritional status, inflammation, and so on. In this study, the prognostic significance of preoperative fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR) and postoperative TNM staging in patients with gastric cancer was retrospectively studied.

METHODS

A total of 265 patients (surgery dates from January 2007 to December 2013) were included in this retrospective study. All the patients were confirmed by pathology after operation. Categorical variables were compared using the χ2 test. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used for survival analysis. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess prognostic factors. Nomogram was applied to predict the prognosis of overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The higher the FAR value, the more lymph node metastasis, the later the TNM stage, and the shorter the survival time. We established a new scoring system, the FAR-TNM score, which combined FAR and TNM stage. The FAR-TNM score was significantly related to tumor location, tumor size, Bormann types, differentiation, operative type, vascular invasion, nerve invasion, depth of invasion, lymphatic metastasis, and advanced TNM stage. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that tumor location, TNM stage, adjuvant chemotherapy, and FAR-TNM score were independent prognostic elements for OS in patients with GC.

CONCLUSIONS

The FAR-TNM score was a valuable independent prognostic indicator for GC patients after surgery, which can help clinicians to assist the treatment and long-term management of patients with gastric cancer.

Correlation between pre-treatment serum total blood bilirubin and unconjugated bilirubin and prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have found that unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) levels are positively correlated with the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC). Therefore, bilirubin may also play an important role in the prognosis of CRC.

AIM

To investigate the predictive value of total bilirubin (TBIL) and UCB in the prognosis of patients with CRC.

METHODS

A total of 142 CRC patients were selected as the research subjects in Jingxian Hospital, from October 2014 to May 2021. General and tumour-related clinical data at admission and the overall survival at 3 years after surgery were collected. The optimal cut-off values of TBIL and UCB were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to analyse the effect of bilirubin level on the survival of CRC patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the survival time.

RESULTS

The 3-year overall survival rate of CRC patients was significantly higher in the high TBIL (> 13.45 μmol/L) group than in the low TBIL (≤ 13.45 μmol/L) group (76.4% vs 37.1%; P < 0.05). The 3-year overall survival rate of CRC patients in the high UCB (> 10.75 μmol/L) group was significantly higher than that in the low UCB (≤ 10.75 μmol/L) group (83.3% vs 34.2%; P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that higher TBIL levels were an independent predictor of better prognosis in CRC patients (hazard ratio = 0.360, 95% confidence interval: 0.159-0.812, P = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

TBIL levels can be used as a prognostic indicator for CRC patients.

Novel prognostic score based on the preoperative total bilirubin-albumin ratio and fibrinogen-albumin ratio in ampullary adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The preoperative total bilirubin-albumin ratio (TBAR) and fibrinogen-albumin ratio (FAR) have been proven to be valuable prognostic factors in various cancers.

AIM

To detect the prognostic value of TBAR and FAR in ampullary adenocarcinoma (AC) patients who underwent curative pancreaticoduodenectomy.

METHODS

AC patients who underwent curative pancreaticoduodenectomy in the National Cancer Center of China between 1998 and 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. The prognostic cutoff values of TBAR and FAR were determined through the best survival separation model. Then, a novel prognostic score combining TBAR and FAR was calculated and validated through the logistic regression analysis and Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 188 AC patients were enrolled in the current study. The best cutoff values of TBAR and FAR for predicting overall survival were 1.7943 and 0.1329, respectively. AC patients were divided into a TBAR-low group (score = 0) vs a TBAR-high group (score = 1) and a FAR-low group (score = 0) vs a FAR-high group (score = 1). The total score was calculated as a novel prognostic factor. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that a high score was an independent protective factor for recurrence [score = 1 vs score = 0: Odds ratio (OR) = 0.517, P = 0.046; score = 2 vs score = 0 OR = 0.236, P = 0.038]. In addition, multivariable survival analysis also demonstrated that a high score was an independent protective factor in AC patients (score = 2 vs score = 0: Hazard ratio = 0.230, P = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

A novel prognostic score based on preoperative TBAR and FAR has been demonstrated to have good predictive power in AC patients who underwent curative pancreaticoduodenectomy. However, more studies with larger samples are needed to validate this conclusion.

Association between Pre-Treatment Biological Indicators and Compliance to Neoadjuvant/Perioperative Chemotherapy in Operable Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Perioperative treatment is currently the gold standard approach in Europe for locally advanced gastric cancer (GC). Unfortunately, the phenomenon of patients dropping out of treatment has been frequently observed. The primary aims of this study were to verify if routine blood parameters, inflammatory response markers, sarcopenia, and the depletion of adipose tissues were associated with compliance to neoadjuvant/perioperative chemotherapy.

METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN

Blood samples were considered before the first and second cycles of chemotherapy. Sarcopenia and adipose indices were calculated with a CT scan before starting chemotherapy and before surgery. Odds ratios (OR) from univariable and multivariable models were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI).

RESULTS

A total of 84 patients with locally advanced GC were identified between September 2010 and January 2021. Forty-four patients (52.4%) did not complete the treatment according to the number of cycles planned/performed. Eight patients (9.5%) decided to suspend chemotherapy, seven patients (8.3%) discontinued because of clinical decisions, fourteen patients (16.7%) discontinued because of toxicity and fifteen patients (17.9%) discontinued for miscellaneous causes. Seventy-nine (94%) out of eighty-four patients underwent gastrectomy, with four patients having surgical complications, which led to a suspension of treatment. Sarcopenia was present in 38 patients (50.7%) before chemotherapy began, while it was present in 47 patients (60%) at the CT scan before the gastrectomy. At the univariable analysis, patients with basal platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) ≥ 152 (p = 0.017) and a second value of PLR ≥ 131 (p = 0.007) were more frequently associated with an interruption of chemotherapy. Patients with increased PLR (p = 0.034) compared to the cut-off were associated with an interruption of chemotherapy, while patients with increased monocytes between the first and second cycles were associated with a lower risk of treatment interruption (p = 0.006); patients who underwent 5-fluorouracil plus cisplatin or oxaliplatin had a higher risk of interruption (p = 0.016) compared to patients who underwent a 5-fluorouracil plus leucovorin, oxaliplatin and docetaxel (FLOT) regimen. The multivariable analysis showed a higher risk of interruption for patients who had higher values of PLR compared to the identified cut-off both at pretreatment and second-cycle evaluation (OR: 5.03; 95% CI: 1.34-18.89; p = 0.017) as well as for patients who had a lower PLR than the identified cut-off at pretreatment evaluation and had a higher PLR value than the cut-off at the second cycle (OR: 4.64; 95% CI: 1.02-21.02; p = 0.047). Becker regression was neither affected by a decrease of sarcopenia ≥ 5% (p = 0.867) nor by incomplete compliance with chemotherapy (p = 0.281).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in PLR values which tend to increase more than the cut-off seem to be an immediate indicator of incomplete compliance with neoadjuvant/perioperative treatment. Fat loss and sarcopenia do not appear to be related to compliance. More information is needed to reduce the causes of interruption.

Preoperative C-Reactive Protein-to-Albumin Ratio and Its Ability to Predict Outcomes of Pancreatic Cancer Resection: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the ability of the c-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) in predicting outcomes in patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection.

METHODS

A systematic search of electronic information sources and bibliographic reference lists was conducted. Survival outcomes and perioperative morbidity were the evaluated outcome parameters.

RESULTS

Eight studies reporting a total of 1056 patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection were identified. The median cut-off value for CAR was 0.05 (range 0.0003-0.54). Using multivariate analysis, all studies demonstrated that a higher CAR value was an independent and significant predictor of poor overall survival in patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection. The estimated hazard ratio (HR) ranged from 1.4 to 3.6. Although there was a positive correlation between the reported cut-off values for CAR and HRs for overall survival, it was weak and non-significant (r = 0.36, n = 6, p = 0.480). There was significant between-study heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative CAR value seems to be an important prognostic score in predicting survival outcomes in patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection. However, the current evidence does not allow the determination of an optimal cut-off value for CAR, considering the heterogeneous reporting of cut-off values by the available studies and the lack of knowledge of their sensitivity and specificity. Future research is required.

Predictive value of indirect bilirubin before neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in evaluating prognosis of local advanced rectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Many biomarkers have predictive value for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in tumor patients. However, the role of indirect bilirubin (IBIL) in local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) has not been studied.

AIM

To explore the predictive value of IBIL before nCRT (pre-IBIL) for the OS and DFS of LARC patients treated with nCRT.

METHODS

A total of 324 LARC patients undergoing nCRT with total mesorectal excision (TME) were enrolled. Preoperative clinical features and postoperative pathological characteristics were collected. Cox regression analysis was performed, and a Cox-based nomogram was developed to predict OS and DFS. We also assessed the predictive performance of the nomogram with calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Among 324 patients, the median pre-IBIL was 6.2 μmol/L (interquartile range: 4.6 μmol/L-8.4 μmol/L). In the Cox multivariate regression analysis, we found that pre-IBIL, smoking history, tumor regression grade (TRG), vascular invasion, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 before nCRT (pre-CA19-9) were predictors of OS. Additionally, pre-IBIL, body mass index (BMI), nCRT with surgery interval, TRG, and vascular invasion were predictors of DFS. Predictive nomograms were developed to predict 5-year OS and 5-year DFS with area under the ROC curve values of 0.7518 and 0.7355, respectively. Good statistical performance on internal validation was shown by calibration plots and ROC curves.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that pre-IBIL was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS in LARC patients treated with nCRT followed by TME. Nomograms incorporating pre-IBIL, BMI, smoking history, nCRT with surgery interval, TRG, vascular invasion, and pre-CA19-9 could be helpful to predict OS and DFS.

Development of an alarm symptom-based risk prediction score for localized oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (VIOLA score)

BACKGROUND

Gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma is a major contributor to global disease burden with poor prognosis even in resectable, regionally limited stages. Feasible prognostic tools are crucial to improve patient management, yet scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Disease-related symptoms, patient, tumour, treatment as well as laboratory parameters at initial diagnosis and overall survival (OS) of patients with stage II and III gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, who were treated between 1990 and 2020 at the Medical University of Vienna, were evaluated in a cross-validation model to develop a feasible risk prediction score.

RESULTS

In total, 628 patients were included in this single-centre analysis. The final score ranked from 0 to 10 and included the factors sex (female +1), age, years (30-59 +1, >60 +2), underweight classified by body mass index (+2), location of the tumour (stomach +1), stage (III +2), stenosis in endoscopy (+1) and weight loss (+1). The score was grouped into low- (0-3), medium- (4-6) and high-risk (7+) subgroups. The median OS were 70.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.2-111.8], 23.4 (95% CI 21.2-26.7) and 12.6 (7.0-16.1) months, respectively. The 1-year survival probabilities were 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93), 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.39-0.74), whereas the 5-year survival probabilities were 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66), 0.24 (95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 0.09 (95% CI 0.03-0.28), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The VIennese risk prediction score for Oesophagogastric Localized Adenocarcinoma (VIOLA) risk prediction score poses a feasible tool for the estimation of OS in patients with regionally limited gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma and, thus, may improve patient management in clinical routine. Prospective analyses should be carried out to confirm our findings.

Prognostic Value of Blood Urea Nitrogen to Serum Albumin Ratio in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Lung Cancer

Background

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) to serum albumin ratio (BAR) to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with lung cancer in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV v1.0) database was used to identify patients who were diagnosed with lung cancer. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariate COX regression was used to investigate the association between BAR and in-hospital mortality and propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were also used to ensure the robustness of our findings. eICU-CRD database (validation cohort) was also applied to validate our findings.

Results

The optimal cut-off value for BAR was 6.8mg/g. Among 1202 patients who were diagnosed with lung cancer, 287 high-BAR group (≥6.8mg/g) patients and 287 low-BAR group (<6.8mg/g) patients, who had similar propensity scores were included in this study. After matching, the high-BAR group had significantly higher in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio, HR, 2.24, 95% confidence index, 95% CI, 1.57–3.19, P<0.001) even after adjustment for confounding factors. Moreover, the performance of BAR was superior to that of BUN and serum albumin alone and could add net benefit in predicting in-hospital mortality. Those results were further confirmed in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

As an easily accessible and cost-effective parameter, BAR could serve as a good prognostic predictor for lung cancer patients in ICU.

Construction and evaluation of prognostic models for esophageal cancer patients with distant and non-distant metastases: providing a reference process for clinical diagnosis and treatment

Background

Although the current treatment for esophageal cancer has great technological progress, the 5-year survival rate of patients is not optimistic. About 70% of patients with esophageal cancer are at an advanced stage at first diagnosis. These patients are prone to distant metastasis, and the prognosis is poor. Therefore, understanding the risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with the prognosis of the patient, can aid in choosing the optimal diagnosis and treatment plan. Ultimately, it will improve the patient's survival time and quality of life. This research aims to construct a model for the risk assessment of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer and prognostic models for patients with distant and non-distant metastases.

Methods

The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to select patients with esophageal cancer from 2010 to 2015. The optimal cutoff point was selected for the age and tumor size variables using X-tile. The nomogram was constructed using R software (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing).

Results

Gender, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors associated with distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram prediction model for whether the patient will have distant metastasis was 0.609. Age, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis without distant metastasis. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model for patients with distant metastases was 0.590. Age and T stage were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with distant metastases. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.543. The combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and primary surgery yielded the best overall survival for both patients with distant metastases and patients with non-distant metastases.

Conclusions

A comprehensive assessment of the risk of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with prognosis prediction, is necessary to provide patients with a reasonable treatment plan.

Association of Total Bilirubin With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in the General Population

Objective: The study aims to investigate the association of total bilirubin with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population.

Methods: A total of 37,234 adults from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2014 were enrolled. Baseline levels of total bilirubin associated with risk of mortality were evaluated on a continuous scale (restricted cubic splines) and by quartile categories with Cox regression models.

Results: Higher levels of total bilirubin was positively associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46–1.72; p < 0.001]. Compared with individuals with the lowest quartile of bilirubin, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.25 (1.14–1.37) for individuals in the highest quartile. Restricted cubic splines indicated that the association was non-linear in cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality while linear in all-cause mortality.

Conclusions: Total bilirubin was associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population.

Bilirubin as a metabolic hormone: the physiological relevance of low levels

Recent research on bilirubin, a historically well-known waste product of heme catabolism, suggests an entirely new function as a metabolic hormone that drives gene transcription by nuclear receptors. Studies are now revealing that low plasma bilirubin levels, defined as "hypobilirubinemia," are a possible new pathology analogous to the other end of the spectrum of extreme hyperbilirubinemia seen in patients with jaundice and liver dysfunction. Hypobilirubinemia is most commonly seen in patients with metabolic dysfunction, which may lead to cardiovascular complications and possibly stroke. We address the clinical significance of low bilirubin levels. A better understanding of bilirubin's hormonal function may explain why hypobilirubinemia might be deleterious. We present mechanisms by which bilirubin may be protective at mildly elevated levels and research directions that could generate treatment possibilities for patients with hypobilirubinemia, such as targeting of pathways that regulate its production or turnover or the newly designed bilirubin nanoparticles. Our review here calls for a shift in the perspective of an old molecule that could benefit millions of patients with hypobilirubinemia.

A nomogram based on pretreatment levels of serum bilirubin and total bile acid levels predicts survival in colorectal cancer patients

Background

Serum bilirubin and total bile acid (TBA) levels have been reported to be strongly associated with the risk and prognosis of certain cancers. Here, we aimed to investigate the effects of pretreatment levels of serum bilirubin and bile acids on the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 1474 patients with CRC who underwent surgical resection between January 2015 and December 2017 was included in the study. Survival analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of pretreatment levels of bilirubin and bile acids. X-Tile software was used to identify optimal cut-off values for total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL) and TBA in terms of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Results

DBIL, TBIL, and TBA were validated as significant prognostic factors by univariate Cox regression analysis for both 3-year OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox regression analyses confirmed that high DBIL, TBIL and TBA levels were independent prognostic factors for both OS (HR: 0.435, 95% CI: 0.299–0.637, P < 0.001; HR: 0.436, 95% CI: 0.329–0.578, P < 0.001; HR: 0.206, 95% CI: 0.124–0.341, P < 0.001, respectively) and DFS (HR: 0.583, 95% CI: 0.391–0.871, P = 0.008; HR:0.437,95% CI: 0.292–0.655, P <0.001; HR: 0.634, 95% CI: 0.465–0.865, P = 0.004, respectively). In addition, nomograms for OS and DFS were established according to all significant factors, and the c-indexes were 0.819 (95% CI: 0.806–0.832) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.822–0.849), respectively.

Conclusions

TBIL, DBIL and TBA levels are independent prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients. The nomograms based on OS and DFS can be used as a practical model for evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.

Does nutritional status affect treatment tolerability, chemotherapy response and survival in metastatic gastric cancer patients? Results of a prospective multicenter study in Turkey

BACKGROUND

The possible impact of malnutrition on the efficacy and tolerability of modern chemotherapy for metastatic gastic adenocarcinoma (mGC) patients is unclear. With this study, we aimed to represent the possible impact of malnutrition on the efficacy and tolerability of chemotherapy, and also on the overall survival of mGC patients.

METHODS

In this prospective multicenter study, we collected demographic, oncological and nutritional data of our mGC patients. The nutritional status of patients were assessed with the Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Body Mass Index (BMI) and weight loss percentage within 21-day period, between the chemotherapy cycles. All of these parameters along with toxicity assessment were evaluated after each courses of chemotherapy in order to determine inter-treatment weight loss. NRIs were calculated with a formula as follows; [1.519 × serum albumin level(g/L) + 41.7 × current weight/basic weight]. Patients were classified as having 'no malnutrition' (NRI > 97.5), 'moderate malnutrition' (97.5 ≥ NRI ≥ 83.5) or 'severe malnutrition' (NRI < 83.5). Drug-induced toxicities and treatment responses were evaluated via National Cancer Institute CTCAE version 4.0 and RECIST Criteria 1.1, respectively.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixteen mGC patients were enrolled into the study. Median age was 60 years with range 32-83. Primary location of the tumor was antrum in 40% of the patients and of which 24% had undergone primary tumor resection. Ninety-eight percent of the patients had WHO performance status 0 or 1. Malnutrition was diagnosed in 67% of the patients and was severe in 31% of them. All patients received chemotherapy as first-line setting. Severe malnutrition was not associated with chemotherapy responses (p = 0.57). Moderate/severe malnutrition was associated with more cytopenia, nausea/vomiting, diarrhea, neuropathy, (p < 0.05 for all parameters). Moderate/severe malnutrition is associated with worser non-hematological toxicities (p = 0.038). Forty-one percent of patients died during the follow up period (Median: 138 days, range: 21-378). Malnutritional level was associated with significantly reduced overall survival. Severe malnutrition was associated with shorter median overall survival (74 days (95% CI, 20.7-111.0) vs. 237 (95% CI, 148.4-325.6) in none/moderate groups, p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

In mGC patients, moderate/severe malnutrition is associated with worse non-hematological toxicities. Severe malnutrition is also associated with reduced overall survival.

Deceased serum bilirubin and albumin levels in the assessment of severity and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background: Our study investigated the diagnostic and prognostic role of serum antioxidant indexes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: This study included 708 AP patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database and 477 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). X-tile software was applied to determine the best cutoff values for serum antioxidant indexes. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were employed to select variables associated with severe AP (SAP) and in-hospital mortality. Finally, the nomograms were also externally validated in the eICU-CRD. Results: The best cutoff values for serum total bilirubin (TBIL) and albumin were 1.1 mg/dL and 2.1 g/dL in the training set, respectively. Multivariate logistical regression indicated that both TBIL (odds ratio [OR]=0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.616-0.889, P=0.001) and albumin (OR=0.890, 95%CI: 0.819-0.967, P=0.006) were independent risk factors for SAP. Similarly, multivariate Cox analysis revealed that serum TBIL (hazard ratio [HR]=0.768, 95%CI:0.635-0.928, P=0.006) and albumin (HR=0.962, 95%CI:0.927-0.998, P=0.037) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The diagnostic nomogram containing TBIL, albumin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and urea nitrogen and prognostic nomogram combining TBIL, albumin, white blood count, SOFA score, and age obtained good discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both the MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD. Conclusion: Serum TBIL and albumin were independent predictors for SAP and in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The nomograms combining serum TBIL and albumin with other significant features exerted favorable predictive performance for SAP and in-hospital mortality.

Serum bilirubin level correlates with mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury

As a catabolic product of hemoglobin, bilirubin has been confirmed playing an important role in the development of various central nervous system disease. The aim of this study is to explore the correlation between serum bilirubin level and mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI).Patients admitted with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in our hospital between January 2015 and January 2018 were enrolled in this study. Clinical and laboratory data of 361 patients were retrospectively collected to explore the independent risk factors of mortality.The comparison of baseline characteristics showed that non-survivors had lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P < .001) and higher level of serum total bilirubin (TBIL) (P < .001) and direct bilirubin (DBIL) (P < .001). We found that only GCS (P < .001), glucose (P < .001), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (P = .042) and DBIL (P = .005) were significant risk factors in multivariate logistic regression analysis. GCS and DBIL had comparable AUC value (0.778 vs 0.750, P > .05) on predicting mortality in TBI patients. The AUC value of the combination of GCS and DBIL is higher than the single value of these two factors (P < .05). Moreover, predictive model 1 consisted of GCS, glucose, LDH and DBIL had the highest AUC value of 0.894.DBIL is a significant risk factor of mortality in TBI patients. Assessing the level of DBIL is beneficial for physicians to evaluate severity and predict outcome for TBI patients.

[Positive lymph node ratio ≥0.16 is an independent risk factor affecting the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the value of positive lymph node ratio (LNR) in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer.

METHODS

We retrieved the data of a total of 862 patients with esophageal cancer with complete clinical pathology data archived in SEER database in 2010 to 2015. The best cutoff point of LNR was selected using X-tile software. Univariate and multivariate COX proportional hazard models were used to assess the value of LNR in predicting the prognosis of patients after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

The best cut-off point of LNR determined using X-tile 3.6.1 software was 0.16. The patients with LNR < 0.16 and those with LNR≥0.16 showed significant differences in the number of positive lymph nodes, pathological type, T stage and M stage. After 1:1 propensity score matching, the two groups showed no significant difference in the clinical data or pathological parameters. Matched univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses showed that LNR, primary tumor site and M staging were all independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients, and among them LNR had the most significant predictive value (LNR < 0.16 vs LNR≥0.16: HR=1.827, 95% CI: 1.140-2.929; P=0.000). The median survival time of patients with LNR < 0.16 was 31 months (95%CI: 22.556-39.444 months), as compared with 16 months (95%CI: 12.989-19.011) in patient with LNR≥0.16 (Log Rank χ2=27.392, P < 0.0001). LNR had a better accuracy than N stage for assessing the patients' prognosis with an area under the ROC curve of 0.617 (95%CI: 0.567-0.666), as compared with 0.515 (95%CI: 0.463-0.565) of N stage (z=3.008, P=0.0026).

CONCLUSIONS

LNR≥0.16 is an independent risk factor affecting the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer and has better prognostic value than N stage.

Prognostic value of preoperative serum bilirubin levels in ovarian cancer

Bilirubin is a promising prognostic factor for non-liver disease-related deaths in various cancers. We investigated the association between preoperative serum bilirubin levels and oncological outcomes in patients with ovarian cancer. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 282 patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC), and grouped them according to optimal threshold values of total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), and indirect bilirubin (IBL) measured by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to evaluate various parameters that might affect overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with EOC. The optimal cutoff values for TBIL, DBIL, and IBIL levels were 9.65 µmol/L, 2.95 µmol/L, and 6.75 µmol/L, respectively. Increased TBIL, DBIL, and IBIL levels correlated with the serum carbohydrate antigen (CA)-125 levels, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, and pathological differentiation (all P<0.05). Univariate analysis revealed longer OS and PFS in patients with high TBIL (≥9.65 µmol/L) and IBIL (≥6.75 µmol/L) levels (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that patients with high IBIL levels (≥6.75 µmol/L) had significantly longer OS and PFS than those with low IBIL levels (<6.75 µmol/L) [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.333, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.123~0.904, P<0.05; HR = 1.814, 95% CI: 1.169~2.816, P<0.05]. Therefore, IBIL is a potential independent prognostic factor for OS and PFS in patients with EOC. The higher the IBL level, the better the prognosis of patients with EOC.

Low preoperative serum ALB level is independently associated with poor overall survival in endometrial cancer patients

Aim: To reveal the prognostic significance of serum albumin (ALB) concentration in endometrial cancer (EC) patients in China. Patients & methods: 345 EC patients were enrolled in a single center, and the preoperative serum ALB concentration were measured. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression model were performed to evaluate the associations between ALB concentration and overall survival (OS) of EC patients. Results: The EC patients with lower preoperative serum ALB concentration exhibited a significantly poorer OS (p < 0.05). Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis indicated that serum ALB concentration was an independent prognostic factor of unfavorable OS for EC patients. Conclusion: Our results showing that ALB concentration may serve as an independent prognostic factor for EC patients.

Preoperative C-reactive protein to albumin ratio is a predictor of survival after pancreatic resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

AIM

Systemic inflammation and nutritional status are associated with clinical outcomes of cancer patients. We investigated the prognostic value of preoperative C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) after pancreatic resection.

METHODS

One-hundred and thirty-six PDA patients who underwent pancreatic resection between January 2005 and June 2017 were retrospectively enrolled. Preoperative inflammation-based scores including CAR, modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were evaluated as potential predictor of overall survival (OS) using Cox regression models. An optimal cutoff value for the continuous variable was estimated by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

Patients were categorized by CAR using a cutoff value of 0.09. High CAR was associated with advanced stage, increased mGPS and decreased LMR and PNI, but not with other factors such as tumor location, preoperative biliary drainage or preoperative chemotherapy. In univariate analysis, patients with high CAR had poor OS compared with those with low CAR (P = 0.01). Multivariate analysis indicated that high CAR was an independent predictor of poor OS (P = 0.03) in addition to advanced stage and residual tumors. The predictive ability of CAR evaluated by area under the ROC curve was consistently higher than that of other inflammation-based factors.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative CAR was an independent and superior predictor of survival after pancreatic resection in patients with PDA. [Correction added on 17 January 2019, after first online publication: In Conclusion, "in" has been corrected to "independent" for clarity.].

Nomogram-based parameters to predict overall survival in a real-world advanced cancer population undergoing palliative care

Background

Although palliative care has been accepted throughout the cancer trajectory, accurate survival prediction for advanced cancer patients is still a challenge. The aim of this study is to identify pre-palliative care predictors and develop a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS) in mixed advanced cancer patients.

Methods

A total of 378 consecutive advanced cancer patients were retrospectively recruited from July 2013 to October 2015 in one palliative care unit in China. Twenty-three clinical and laboratory characters were collected for analysis. Prognostic factors were identified to construct a nomogram in a training cohort (n = 247) and validated in a testing cohort (n = 131) from the setting.

Results

The median survival time was 48.0 (95% CI: 38.1–57.9) days for the training cohort and 52.0 (95% CI: 34.6–69.3) days for the validation cohort. Among pre-palliative care factors, sex, age, tumor stage, Karnofsky performance status, neutrophil count, hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, uric acid, and cystatin-C were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. Based on the 10 factors, an easily obtained nomogram predicting 90-day probability of mortality was developed. The predictive nomogram had good discrimination and calibration, with a high C-index of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73–0.80) in the development set. The strong discriminative ability was externally conformed in the validation cohort with a C-index of 0.75.

Conclusions

A validated prognostic nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of mortality for advanced cancer patients undergoing palliative care. This tool may be useful in optimizing therapeutic approaches and preparing for clinical courses individually.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12904-019-0432-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

TNM-PNI: a novel prognostic scoring system for patients with gastric cancer and curative D2 resection

Purpose

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignancies and has a high mortality rate. In recent years, several nutritional or inflammatory biomarkers have been shown to effectively predict the prognosis of tumors. In this study, we intended to establish a prognostic scoring system for GC patients.

Patients and methods

Our study included a total of 501 GC patients who were diagnosed with GC stage I–III and received curative gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy between January 2011 and December 2012. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier and log-rank tests. Two Cox multivariate models, one for continuous and one for categorical variables, were established to identify independent prognostic factors. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 20.0.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, preoperative prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and adjuvant therapy were independent prognostic factors for GC patients. We established a new composite variable, TNM-PNI, which was confirmed to be a major prognostic factor for curative D2 resection, independent of whether adjuvant therapy was administered. GC patients with higher TNM-PNI scores always had worse cancer outcomes. In addition, we found that adjuvant therapy might be beneficial for the survival of GC patients with TNM-PNI =4 or 5.

Conclusion

Preoperative PNI plays a distinctly subsidiary role to the TNM stage when predicting patient prognosis. TNM-PNI is a novel and an effective prognostic index for GC patients with curative D2 resection and a good supplement for the National Comprehensive Cancer Network Guidelines.

Significance of Preoperative Systemic Immune Score for Stage I Gastric Cancer Patients

Background

Determining preferences regarding the benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for stage I GC is critical.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 1069 patients with pathologically confirmed stage I GC who underwent R0 gastrectomy between 2006 and 2014. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Systemic inflammation factors were used to develop a scoring system for predicting AC benefits.

Results

With a median follow-up of 47 months (range 3–113 months), the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 90.5%. The patient score was 1 for either a pretreatment hypoalbuminemia or elevated derived neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) and was 0 otherwise. The SIS served as an independent prognostic factor for reduced OS. AC was delivered to 13.5% (144/1069) of all patients. Compared to surgery alone, AC had no significant effect on survival in both the entire cohort and the IA/IB subgroup. However, in the high-risk group (SIS = 2), patients with AC had a significantly better OS than those undergoing surgery alone.

Conclusions

Patients with SIS = 2 may benefit from AC and thus may be considered candidates for adjuvant treatment. However, to confirm our findings, future prospective studies are warranted.

Clinicopathologic and prognostic significance of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in patients with solid tumors: an updated systemic review and meta-analysis

C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) was originally used as a novel inflammation-based prognostic score in predicting outcomes in septic patients. Recently, more and more studies have reported the prognostic value of pretreatment CAR in solid tumors. However, the results remain controversial rather than conclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis based on 24 studies with 10203 patients to explore the relationship between CAR and survival outcomes in patients with solid tumors. The correlation between CAR and clinicopathological parameters was also assessed. Hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was applied to be the effect size estimate. The overall results showed that elevated CAR was associated with shorter overall survival (OS) (including 23 studies and 10067 patients) and poorer disease-free survival (DFS) (including 6 studies and 2904 patients). Significant associations between high CAR level and poor OS were also found in the subgroup analyses of study region, cancer type, primary treatment, clinical stage, cut-off selection, sample size, and cut-off value. Moreover, subgroup analyses demonstrated that study region, primary treatment, clinical stage, sample size, and cut-off value did not alter the prognostic value of CAR for DFS. Furthermore, elevated CAR was correlated with certain phenotypes of tumor aggressiveness, such as poor histological grade, serious clinical stage, advanced tumor depth, positive lymph node metastasis, and positive distant metastasis. Together, our meta-analysis suggests that elevated level of serum CAR predicts worse survival and unfavorable clinical characteristics in cancer patients, and CAR may serve as an effective prognostic factor for solid tumors.

Pretreatment albumin to globulin ratio can serve as a prognostic marker in human cancers: a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Our meta-analysis aims to investigate the prognostic role of pretreatment albumin to globulin ratio (AGR) in human cancers.

METHODS

Available databases were searched up to Sept 25th, 2017. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and risk ratio (RRs) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the prognostic impact of AGR on overall survival (OS)/disease-free survival (DFS)/progression-free survival (PFS) and 5-year mortality respectively.

RESULTS

Totally, 28 studies with 15 356 cancer patients were included. Our results demonstrated that low pretreatment AGR is associated with poor OS (HR=2.08, 95%CI:1.78-2.44, univariate results; HR=1.75, 95%CI:1.56-1.97, multivariate results), poor DFS (HR=1.96, 95%CI:1.48-2.59, univariate results; HR=1.64, 95%CI:1.26-2.14, multivariate results) and poor PFS (HR=1.89, 95%CI:1.61-2.22, univariate results; HR=1.66, 95%CI:1.32-2.0, multivariate results). Meanwhile, low pretreatment AGR is also associated with increased 5-year mortality (RR=2.12, 95%CI:1.48-3.03). Moreover, this significant correlation was not altered by stratified analysis according to publication times, sample sizes, patient origins, AGR cutoff values, cancer systems, treatment methods or HR sources.

CONCLUSION

Low pretreatment AGR is associated with poor prognosis in human cancers, and AGR should be used as a prognostic marker during cancer therapy.

A novel inflammation-based prognostic index for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: neutrophil lymphocyte ratio/albumin ratio

Background

We initially proposed a novel inflammation-based prognostic index, named neutrophil lymphocyte ratio/albumin ratio (NLR/Alb), for predicting the postoperative survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Materials and methods

A retrospective study of 329 cases with resectable ESCC was included. The optimal cut-off values were evaluated by X-tile program. The 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was calculated by Kaplan–Meier method. Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic factors.

Results

The optimal cut-off value was 0.1 for NLR/Alb according to the X-tile program. There was a significantly better 5-year CSS in patients with NLR/Alb ≤ 0.1 than patients with NLR/Alb > 0.1 (39.1% vs. 11.0%, P < 0.001). According to multivariate analyses, NLR/Alb (P = 0.001) was an independent prognostic factor.

Conclusions

The NLR/Alb is a novel and usefull predictive factor in patients with ESCC.

Clinical significance of pre-surgical serum lipid levels in patients with glioblastoma

Accumulating evidence demonstrates that pre-surgical serum lipid levels are linked to the clinical outcome of different types of human malignant tumors, but few studies have explored the prognostic value of these easily accessible parameters in glioblastoma. The aim of the current study was to validate the association between pre-surgical serum lipid levels and the clinical outcome of patients with glioblastoma. The pre-surgical serum lipid levels (triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) of 125 patients with glioblastoma, who underwent surgery between January 2015 and May 2016, were retrospectively evaluated. The correlation between pre-surgical serum lipid levels and overall survival (OS) was examined using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Univariate analysis showed that lipids associated with OS were total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol levels. Results of multivariate analysis identified LDL cholesterol level as an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with glioblastoma (hazard ratio: 0.412; 95% confidence interval: 0.211-0.801; P = 0.009). Total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol levels were predictive factors only in univariate analysis, but not in multivariate analysis. The current study demonstrated that pre-surgical serum LDL cholesterol level is an independent prognostic factor for clinical outcomes of patients with glioblastoma. Pre-surgical serum LDL cholesterol level might provide valuable prognostic information for patients with glioblastoma that could be applied in clinical practice.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Benefit of Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Patients with Resected Gastric Cancer

Background: The US guidelines for gastric cancer (GC) recommend adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) combined with 5-fluorouracil as a standard treatment for patients with resected locally advanced GC. However, patient selection criteria for optimizing the use of adjuvant therapies are lacking. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the individualized overall survival (OS) benefit of ART among patients with resected ≥stage IB GC. Patients and Methods: The 2002-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data of 5,206 patients with resected GC were used as a training set for the development of a nomogram. The 2007-2008 SEER data of 1,986 patients with resected GC were used as validation data. Results: In the multivariate analysis weighted by inverse propensity score, the efficacy of ART varied by the ratio of positive to examined nodes (Pinteraction <0.01). The magnitude of this difference was included in the nomogram with associated prognosticators to predict the 3- and 5-year OS with and without ART. The nomogram showed significant prognostic superiority to the 8th TNM staging in the training set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.65; P<0.01) and the validation set (Concordance index, 0.68 versus 0.64; P<0.01). Moreover, the calibration was accurate, and the actual efficacy of ART was positively correlated with the nomogram-estimated survival benefit from ART (Pinteraction <0.01 and Pinteraction =0.02 in the training set and the validation set, respectively). Conclusion: The nomogram can aid individualized clinical decision making by estimating the 3- and 5-year OS and potential benefits of ART among patients with resected GC.

Nomograms for prognostic factors of spinal giant cell tumor combining traditional clinical characteristics with inflammatory biomarkers after gross total resection

Giant cell tumor (GCT) of bone is a common primary bone tumor, which exhibits local aggressiveness and recurrent potential, especially for the spinal lesion. Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. The prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in GCT has not been established. A retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with spinal GCT in Changzheng Hospital Orthopedic Oncological Center (CHOOC) between January 2005 and October 2015 and 129 patients were identified eligible. Traditional clinical parameters and inflammatory indexes such as Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were concluded and analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict DFS quantitatively for the first time, and Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the DFS was 78.3% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤ 2.70 and > 2.70), PLR (≤ 215.80 and > 215.80), LMR (≤ 2.80 and >2.80) and AGR (< 1.50 and ≥ 1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.70, PLR > 215.80, LMR ≤ 2.80 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased DFS (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that treatment history, tumor length, bisphosphonate treatment, NLR and PLR were independent factors of DFS (p < 0.05, respectively). In addition, nomogram on DFS was established according to all significant factors, and c-index was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.710-0.743). Nomograms based on DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for spinal GCT patients.