Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma in adolescent and young adult patients after hepatectomy

Factors affecting overall survival and disease-free survival after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma: a nomogram-based prognostic model-a Western European multicenter study

Few studies have assessed the clinical implications of the combination of different prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors in HCC patients for OS and DFS outcomes and establish a nomogram-based prognostic model to predict the DFS of HCC. A multicenter, retrospective European study was conducted through the collection of data on 413 consecutive treated patients with a first diagnosis of HCC between January 2010 and December 2020. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify all independent risk factors for OS and DFS outcomes. A nomogram prognostic staging model was subsequently established for DFS and its precision was verified internally by the concordance index (C-Index) and externally by calibration curves. For OS, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated Child-Pugh B7 score (HR 4.29; 95% CI 1.74-10.55; p = 0.002) as an independent prognostic factor, along with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage ≥ B (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.07-3.54; p = 0.029), microvascular invasion (MVI) (HR 2.54; 95% CI 1.38-4.67; p = 0.003), R1/R2 resection margin (HR 1.57; 95% CI 0.85-2.90; p = 0.015), and Clavien-Dindo Grade 3 or more (HR 2.73; 95% CI 1.44-5.18; p = 0.002). For DFS, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated BCLC stage ≥ B (HR 2.15; 95% CI 1.34-3.44; p = 0.002) as an independent prognostic factor, along with multiple nodules (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.25-3.32; p = 0.004), MVI (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.19-2.75; p = 0.005), satellite nodules (HR 1.63; 95% CI 1.09-2.45; p = 0.018), and R1/R2 resection margin (HR 3.39; 95% CI 2.19-5.25; < 0.001). The C-Index of the nomogram, tailored based on the previous significant factors, showed good accuracy (0.70). Internal and external calibration curves for the probability of DFS rate showed optimal consistency and fit well between the nomogram-based prediction and actual observations. MVI and R1/R2 resection margins should be considered as significant OS and DFS predictors, while satellite nodules should be included as a significant DFS predictor. The nomogram-based prognostic model for DFS provides a more effective prognosis assessment for resected HCC patients, allowing for individualized treatment plans.

Outcomes of adolescent and young patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative liver resection: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The risk of HCC is documented to be age-related. The outcomes of young HCC patients on postoperative prognosis are not well understood. The study aims to compare the characteristic differences between adolescent and young (AYA) and non-AYA HCC patients.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the clinical and pathological findings and the survival of 243 HCC patients who underwent operations between 2007 and 2018.

RESULTS

The AYA group had a higher AFP level and a higher prevalence of family history of HCC or other cancers than the non-AYA group (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05). AYA patients had more unfavorable pathological characteristics including bigger lesion size, microvascular invasion, portal vein invasion, and hepatic capsule invasion. They also had a more unfavorable Edmondson grade and less tumor capsule formation (P < 0.01). Age was an independent predictor of survival in HCC patients. AYA patients had poorer disease-free and overall survival than non-AYA patients did (P < 0.01). Patients under 30 years old had an even poorer disease-free survival than those aged 30-40 (P = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

AYA patients exhibited a higher recurrence rate and disease-related death rate with more unfavorable pathological characteristics. Enhanced follow-up for young HCC patients should be applied.

A prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients based on signature ferroptosis-related genes

BACKGROUND

Considering the increase in the number of HCC patients, it is critical to predict the survival of patients. Although ferroptosis is closely related to HCC progression, predicting the survival of HCC patients through ferroptosis-related genes is challenging.

METHODS

RNA-seq and clinical data of HCC in the TCGA database were analyzed to establish a prognostic model, and ICGC and GSE14520 data were used for validation. Risk score was constructed with 5 genes identified by univariate and LASSO Cox regression analysis. Risk score, TNM stage and cirrhosis were incorporated to construct a nomogram through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Five genes identified from 70 ferroptosis-related DEGs were used to construct a gene signature that predicts survival of HCC patients in the TCGA cohort. PCA and heatmap showed clear differences between patients in different score groups. Next, risk score, TNM stage and cirrhosis were combined in a nomogram for overall survival prediction. Survival analysis indicated that the overall survival of the low-risk group was significantly higher than that of the high-risk group. The data from the GSE14520 cohort confirmed satisfactory nomogram performance. Furthermore, KEGG and GO functional enrichment analyses indicated that the difference in overall survival between risk groups was closely related to immune-related pathways. Further analyses implied that an immune-suppressive tumor microenvironment might contribute to the difference in the prognosis between risk groups.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on ferroptosis-related genes showed good performance for predicting the prognosis of HCC patients. The model may provide a reference for the evaluation of HCC patients by targeting ferroptosis.

A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prolonged Survival After Hepatectomy in Repeat Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: Repeat hepatectomy is an important treatment for patients with repeat recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: This study was a multicenter retrospective analysis of 1,135 patients who underwent primary curative liver resection for HCC. One hundred recurrent patients with second hepatectomy were included to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of post-recurrence survival (PRS). Thirty-eight patients in another institution were used to externally validate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors of PRS. Discrimination, calibration, and the Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate the model performance.

Results: The nomogram was based on variables associated with PRS after HCC recurrence, including the tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) stage; albumin and aspartate aminotransferase levels at recurrence; tumor size, site, differentiation of recurrences; and time to recurrence (TTR). The discriminative ability of the nomogram, as indicated by the C statistics (0.758 and 0.811 for training cohort and external validation cohorts, respectively), was shown, which was better than that of the TNM staging system (0.609 and 0.609, respectively). The calibration curves showed ideal agreement between the prediction and the real observations. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the training cohort and external validation cohorts were 0.843 and 0.890, respectively. The Kaplan–Meier curve of the established nomogram also performed better than those of both the TNM and the BCLC staging systems.

Conclusions: We constructed a nomogram to predict PRS in patients with repeat hepatectomy (RH) after repeat recurrence of HCC.

Long-term oncologic outcomes of liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in adolescents and young adults: A multicenter study from A hepatitis B virus-endemic area

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is common among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in areas with endemic hepatitis B virus infection. We sought to characterize clinical features and long-term outcomes among AYAs versus older adults (OAs) who underwent HCC resection.

METHODS

From a Chinese multicenter database, patients were categorized as AYA (aged 13-39 years) versus OA (aged ≥40 years). Patient clinical features, perioperative outcomes, overall survival (OS) and time-to-recurrence (TTR) were compared. Multivariable Cox-regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of age on OS and TTR.

RESULTS

Among 1952 patients, 354(22.2%) were AYAs. AYAs were less likely to have cirrhosis yet were likely to have advanced tumor pathological characteristics than OAs. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were comparable. Compared with OAs, AYAs had a comparable OS but a decreased TTR. Multivariable analyses identified that young age (<40 years) was independently associated with poorer TTR.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with OAs, AYAs had a higher incidence of recurrence following liver resection among patients with HCC, suggesting that enhanced surveillance for postoperative recurrence may be required among AYAs.

Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy, with a Focus on Recurrence Timing and Post-Recurrence Management

Background

Prognoses of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy remain unsatisfactory because of the high incidence of postoperative recurrence. Published predictive systems focus on pre-resection oncological characteristics, ignoring post-recurrence factors.

Purpose

This study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms for 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients with HCC after curative hepatectomy, focusing on potentially influential post-recurrence factors.

Patients and Methods

Clinicopathological and postoperative follow-up data were extracted from 494 patients with HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy between January 2012 and June 2019. Early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR) were defined as recurrence at ≤2 and >2 years, respectively, after curative hepatectomy. Nomograms for the prediction of 3- and 5-year OS were established based on multivariate analysis. The areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the nomograms were calculated independently to verify predictive accuracy. The nomograms were internally validated based on 2000 bootstrap resampling of 75% of the original data.

Results

In total, 494 patients with HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy met the eligibility criteria. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis identified factors potentially influencing 3- and 5-year OS. Multivariate analysis indicated that patient age, Hong Kong Liver Cancer stage, γ-glutamyl transferase (γ-GGT) level, METAVIR inflammation activity grade, ER and post-recurrence treatment modality were influencing factors for 3-year OS (AUC, 0.891; 95% CI, 0.8364-0.9447). γ-GGT > 60 U/L, hepatectomy extent, LR and post-recurrence treatment modality were influencing factors for 5-year OS (AUC, 0.864; 95% CI, 0.8041-0.9237). Calibration plots showed satisfactory concordance between the predicted and actual observation cohorts.

Conclusion

We propose new prognostic nomograms for OS prediction with a focus on the differentiation of recurrence timing and post-recurrence management. These nomograms overcome the shortcomings of previous predictive nomograms and significantly improve predictive accuracy.

Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Early and Late Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy

Aim

Hepatectomy is the main curative method for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. Unfortunately, high recurrence rate after hepatectomy poses negative impact on the prognosis of patients. This study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms to predict early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR) of HCC after curative hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Total of 318 HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy from January 2012 to January 2018 were retrospectively recruited. Potential risk factors that were significant for predicting ER and LR in univariate analysis were selected for multivariate survival model analysis using the backward stepwise method. Risk factors identified in multivariate analysis were used to develop nomograms to predict ER and LR. The nomogram was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap samples from 75% of the original data.

Results

Among 318 patients, 164 showed postoperative recurrence, of which 140 and 24 had ER (≤2 years) and LR (>2 years), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, Hong Kong Liver Cancer Stage, albumin-bilirubin, METAVIR fibrosis grade, and microvascular invasion were risk factors of ER for HCC after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for ER in the development set (D-set) was 0.888 while that in the validation set (V-set) was 0.812. Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and glypican-3 (+) were risk factors for LR in HCC patients after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR predictive nomogram that integrated all independent predictors was 0.831. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR in the D-set was 0.833, while that for LR in the V-set was 0.733. The C-index and AUC of ROC for the proposed nomograms were more satisfactory than three conventional HCC staging systems used in this study.

Conclusion

We developed novel nomograms to predict ER and LR of HCC patients after curative hepatectomy for clinical use to individualize follow-up and therapeutic strategies.

Development of a prognostic scoring model for predicting the survival of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

The number of elderly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients is increasing, and precisely assessing of the prognosis of these patients is necessary. We developed a prognostic scoring model to predict survival in elderly HCC patients.

Methods

We extracted data from 4,076 patients ≥65 years old from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided them into training and validation groups. Cox regression analysis was used to screen for meaningful independent prognostic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve reflected the model's discrimination power.

Results

Age, race, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, degree of tumour differentiation, tumour size, alpha-fetoprotein and tumour therapy were independent prognostic factors for survival in elderly HCC patients. We developed a prognostic scoring model based on the seven meaningful variables to predict survival in elderly HCC patients. The AUCs of the model were 0.805 (95% CI [0.788-0.821]) and 0.788 (95% CI [0.759-0.816]) in the training and validation groups, respectively. We divided the patients into low-risk groups and high-risk groups according to the optimal cut-off value. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that in the training and validation groups, the survival rate of the low-risk group was significantly higher than that of the high-risk group (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Based on a large population, we constructed a prognostic scoring model for predicting survival in elderly HCC patients. The model may provide a reference for clinicians for preoperative and postoperative evaluations of elderly HCC patients.

The risk factors for long-term survival outcome in solitary hepatocellular carcinoma up to 2 cm: Propensity score matching analysis in a population cohort with a high rate of HBV infection

BACKGROUND

The American Joint Committee on Cancer staging recently classified solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤ 2 cm with or without vascular invasion as stage T1a. We aimed to discuss the risk factors of these stage T1a patients.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with solitary HCC ≤2 cm from September 2008 to June 2015 were included in our study. Due to the small number of patients undergoing a non-curable approach and liver transplantation, patients undergoing liver resection (LR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) were included. In the comparison between LR and RFA, 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was used. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were predicted, and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to find the prognostic factors, described as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

In total, 273 HCC patients were involved in our study, of whom 192 patients underwent LR and 81 patients underwent RFA. The proportion of Child-Pugh A patients was higher in the LR group (91.7%) versus the RFA group (76.5%) (P = 0.001), and the tumour size was slightly larger in the LR group, with a median size of 1.9 cm versus 1.7 cm in the RFA group (P = 0.001). No difference was found in OS between LR and RFA. However, RFA was the only risk factor for recurrence (HR 1.578, 95% CI 1.006-2.467, P = 0.047). A total of 80 pairs were compared after PSM, and there was no significant difference in OS or DFS between LR and RFA after PSM (P = 0.5434 or P = 0.1642, respectively). Child-Pugh stage B was the only risk factor for OS in the multivariate analysis after PSM (HR 2.289, 95% CI 1.089-4.812, P = 0.029).

CONCLUSION

RFA was comparable with LR in treating solitary HCC up to 2 cm but with a higher risk for recurrence due to the imbalanced pre-operative covariates. When the pre-operative factors were consistent, liver function was the only prognostic factor for long-term OS.

A nomogram predicting the prognosis of young adult patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based analysis

Background

Few studies have reported the clinical characteristics and outcomes of young adult patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to formulate a nomogram to predict the prognosis of young adult HCC patients.

Methods

Young adult patients diagnosed with HCC from 2004 to 2015 were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on the multivariate analysis results, a nomogram was constructed. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration were used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The clinical benefit was measured by using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The mean follow-up time of the patients was 25.0±34.0 months. Gender, race, AFP level, Edmondson–Steiner classification, treatment and TNM stage were selected as independent prognostic factors and integrated into the nomogram. The c-indexes of the two sets were 0.786 and 0.775, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted probability and the actual observations. Furthermore, the DCA indicated that the nomogram had positive net benefits compared with the conventional staging system.

Conclusions

The nomogram could accurately predict the prognosis of young adult HCC patients.

Expression of IL-26 predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection

BACKGROUND

There is no data regarding prognostic impact of interleukin (IL)-26 on outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of IL-26 on HCC patients undergoing liver resection.

METHODS

From 2003 to 2008, 122 patients with HCC who received surgical curative resection were enrolled. Patients were stratified into IL-26-upper and -lower groups according to the median expression level from immunohistochemical staining of resected specimens. Prognostic impact of IL-26 was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate time-dependent prognostic impact and independency of IL-26. Demographic and clinical factors that were associated with IL-26 were comprehensively identified.

RESULTS

Prognosis of the patients with high level of IL-26 revealed to be significantly unfavorable in both cumulative recurrence-free survival (P < 0.001) and overall survival (P = 0.002). Upper expression of IL-26 (HR: 1.643; 95% CI: 1.021 to 2.644; P = 0.041) and microvascular invasion (HR: 3.303; 95% CI: 1.255 to 8.696; P = 0.016) were identified as significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival in the multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

IL-26 is a novel prognostic factor for HCC after resection. Evaluation of IL-26 expression may be potentially valuable in clinical therapy when planning individualized follow-up schedule and evaluating candidates for prophylactic adjuvant treatment to prevent recurrence.

Nomograms for prognostic factors of spinal giant cell tumor combining traditional clinical characteristics with inflammatory biomarkers after gross total resection

Giant cell tumor (GCT) of bone is a common primary bone tumor, which exhibits local aggressiveness and recurrent potential, especially for the spinal lesion. Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. The prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in GCT has not been established. A retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with spinal GCT in Changzheng Hospital Orthopedic Oncological Center (CHOOC) between January 2005 and October 2015 and 129 patients were identified eligible. Traditional clinical parameters and inflammatory indexes such as Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were concluded and analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict DFS quantitatively for the first time, and Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the DFS was 78.3% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤ 2.70 and > 2.70), PLR (≤ 215.80 and > 215.80), LMR (≤ 2.80 and >2.80) and AGR (< 1.50 and ≥ 1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.70, PLR > 215.80, LMR ≤ 2.80 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased DFS (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that treatment history, tumor length, bisphosphonate treatment, NLR and PLR were independent factors of DFS (p < 0.05, respectively). In addition, nomogram on DFS was established according to all significant factors, and c-index was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.710-0.743). Nomograms based on DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for spinal GCT patients.