Age-specific impact on the survival of gastric cancer patients with distant metastasis: an analysis of SEER database

Machine learning to predict distant metastasis and prognostic analysis of moderately differentiated gastric adenocarcinoma patients: a novel focus on lymph node indicators

Background

Moderately differentiated gastric adenocarcinoma (MDGA) has a high risk of metastasis and individual variation, which strongly affects patient prognosis. Using large-scale datasets and machine learning algorithms for prediction can improve individualized treatment. The specific efficacy of several lymph node indicators in predicting distant metastasis (DM) and patient prognosis in MDGA remains obscure.

Methods

We collected data from MDGA patients from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we collected data from MDGA patients in China. We used nine machine learning algorithms to predict DM. Subsequently, we used Cox regression analysis to determine the risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in DM patients and constructed nomograms. Furthermore, we used logistic regression and Cox regression analyses to assess the specific impact of six lymph node indicators on DM incidence and patient prognosis.

Results

We collected data from 5,377 MDGA patients from the SEER database and 109 MDGC patients from hospitals. T stage, N stage, tumor size, primary site, number of positive lymph nodes, and chemotherapy were identified as independent risk factors for DM. The random forest prediction model had the best overall predictive performance (AUC = 0.919). T stage, primary site, chemotherapy, and the number of regional lymph nodes were identified as prognostic factors for OS. Moreover, T stage, number of regional lymph nodes, primary site, and chemotherapy were also influential factors for CSS. The nomograms showed good predictive value and stability in predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS in DM patients. Additionally, the log odds of a metastatic lymph node and the number of negative lymph nodes may be risk factors for DM, while the regional lymph node ratio and the number of regional lymph nodes are prognostic factors for OS.

Conclusion

The random forest prediction model accurately identified high-risk populations, and we established OS and CSS survival prediction models for MDGA patients with DM. Our hospital samples demonstrated different characteristics of lymph node indicators in terms of distant metastasis and prognosis.

Effect of Age at Diagnosis on the Prognosis of Gastric Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study in Georgia

INTRODUCTION

The national burden of gastric cancer (GC) is high in Georgia, which is determined by its high mortality and low survival. The study aimed to estimate the effect of age at diagnosis on the prognosis of GC patients diagnosed between 2015 and 2020 in Georgia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained data for the study from the national population-based cancer registry. All patients 15 years of age or older, diagnosed during 2015-2020 with invasive GC (site codes C16.0 to C16.9, International Classification of Diseases for Oncology), were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. We produced survival curves using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank test was used to compare survival between groups. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using univariate Cox proportional models and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. The endpoint of the study was overall survival (OS). The level of statistical significance of the study findings was estimated using p-values and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant.  Results: A total of 1,828 gastric cancer cases were included in the statistical analysis. The average age of patients was 65 years. The bivariate Cox's regression analysis demonstrated that the risk of gastric cancer mortality increased gradually with the age of cancer patients. The HR and 95% CI were as follows: 1.5 (1.1-1.8) and 2.1 (1.5-2.5) in the 46-65 years and >65 years groups, respectively, with the <46 years group as a reference. Moreover, multivariable Cox's regression analysis proved that age is an independent risk factor for GC mortality (HR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.2-1.8; p<.001).  Conclusion: We found that age at diagnosis was a significant predictor of the worse survival of GC patients diagnosed between 2015 and 2020 in Georgia.

Metastasis patterns and prognosis in young gastric cancer patients: A propensity score‑matched SEER database analysis

BACKGROUND

Whether young patients with metastatic gastric cancer (GC) had distinct metastasis patterns and survival outcomes from older patients remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to explore the metastasis patterns and prognostic factors in young patients and evaluate the survival outcome in comparison to their older counterparts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified patients with metastatic GC in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015. The patients were divided into two groups based on age at diagnosis: younger (≤40 years old) and older (>40 years old). We employed the chi-squared test to compare the clinicopathological characteristics between the two age groups. Furthermore, we conducted survival analyses using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. To balance disparities in baseline characteristics, we employed propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

We identified 5,580 metastatic GC patients from the SEER database, with 237 (4.2%) classified as younger and 5343 (95.8%) as older patients. A total of 237 pairs of patients were generated after adjustment by PSM. Patients in the younger group exhibited a higher proportion of bone-only metastases and a lower proportion of liver-only metastases compared with patients in the older group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that youth was an independent protective factor for overall survival (OS) before and after PSM, but not for gastric cancer-specific survival (GCSS). Among the younger group, patients with liver-only metastasis demonstrated the best prognosis, whereas patients with lung-only metastasis exhibited significantly worse survival outcomes compared with liver-only metastases, even comparable to that of bone metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the older group, the metastatic GC patients in the younger group exhibited more aggressive tumors but better prognoses. The metastasis pattern and its effect on the prognosis of GC varied by age group.

Application of machine learning algorithms to predict lymph node metastasis in gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms

Background

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are tumors that originate from secretory cells of the diffuse endocrine system and typically produce bioactive amines or peptide hormones. This paper describes the development and validation of a predictive model of the risk of lymph node metastasis among gastric NEN patients based on machine learning platform.

Methods

In this investigation, data from 1256 patients were used, of whom 119 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University in China and 1137 cases from the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER) database were combined. Six machine learning algorithms, including the logistic regression model (LR), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), Naive Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), were used to build the predictive model. The performance of the models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Results

Among the 1256 patients with gastric NENs, 276 patients (21.97 %) developed lymph node metastasis. T stage, tumor size, degree of differentiation, and sex were predictive factors of lymph node metastasis. The RF model achieved the best predictive performance among the six machine learning models, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.81, 0.78, 0.76, and 0.82, respectively.

Conclusion

The RF model provided the best prediction and can help physicians determine the lymph node metastasis risk of gastric NEN patients to formulate individualized medical strategies.

PLAGL2 promotes Snail expression and gastric cancer progression via UCA1/miR-145-5p/YTHDF1 axis

OBJECTIVES

Although great progress has made in gastric cancer (GC) in the past years, the overall 5-year survival rate remains to be low for advanced GC patients. A recent study showed that PLAGL2 was increased in GC and enhanced the proliferation and metastasis of GC. Nevertheless, the underlying mechanism still needs to be investigated.

METHODS

Gene and protein expressions were assessed using RT-qPCR and western blot. The migration, proliferation and invasion of GC cells were examined using scratch assay, CCK-8 assay and Transwell assay, respectively. ChIP-PCR, dual-luciferase assay, RIP-qPCR and CoiP were utilized to confirm the interaction among PLAGL2, UCA1, miR-145-5p and YTHDF1 as well as METTL3, YTHDF1 and eEF-2. A mouse xenograft model was used utilized to further confirm the regulatory network.

RESULTS

PLAGL2 bound to the upstream promoter of UCA1, which regulated YTHDF1 by sponging miR-145-5p. METTL3 can mediate the m6A modification level of Snail. YTHDF1 recognized m6A-modified Snail by interacting with eEF-2 and thus promoted Snail expression, which eventually induced epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in GC cells and metastasis of GC.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study demonstrates that PLAGL2 enhances Snail expression and GC progression via the UCA1/miR-145-5p/YTHDF1 axis, suggesting that PLAGL2 may become a therapeutic target for GC treatment.

Predictors of survival outcomes among patients with gastric cancer in a leading tertiary, teaching and referral hospital in Kenya

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of gastrointestinal malignancies in Kenya is increasing, although there is a paucity of data on survival outcomes among gastric cancer patients. Hence, this study aimed to assess survival outcomes among adult gastric cancer patients at Kenyatta National Hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study design was used to assess the survival outcomes among 247 gastric cancer patients. All medical records of adult (≥18 years) gastric cancer patients with complete medical records of diagnosis, stage of cancer, and treatment regimen in the study setting in the last 5 years (2016-2020) were included. A simple random sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. Data were collected using a data abstraction tool composed of socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Survival outcomes were reported as the percentage of mortality, mean survival estimate, and mean cancer-specific survival. The data were entered and analyzed using version 20.0 SPSS statistical software. The mean survival estimates and predictors of mortality were computed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

The study showed that 33.3% (64) had new distant metastasis, and 42.1% (104) had disease progression. Besides, the mortality rate was high (33.6%), and 14.6% and 7.7% of patients had complete and partial responses, respectively. The five-year survival was 32.7% among gastric cancer patients. Comorbidity (p = 0.014), advanced-stage diseases (p = 0.03), chemotherapy (p = 0.008), and gastrectomy (p = 0.016) were significant determinants of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of patients had distant metastasis, disease progression, and a low five-year survival rate. Hence, early cancer-screening programs are indispensable to circumvent disease progression and improve survival outcomes.

Development of an alarm symptom-based risk prediction score for localized oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (VIOLA score)

BACKGROUND

Gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma is a major contributor to global disease burden with poor prognosis even in resectable, regionally limited stages. Feasible prognostic tools are crucial to improve patient management, yet scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Disease-related symptoms, patient, tumour, treatment as well as laboratory parameters at initial diagnosis and overall survival (OS) of patients with stage II and III gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, who were treated between 1990 and 2020 at the Medical University of Vienna, were evaluated in a cross-validation model to develop a feasible risk prediction score.

RESULTS

In total, 628 patients were included in this single-centre analysis. The final score ranked from 0 to 10 and included the factors sex (female +1), age, years (30-59 +1, >60 +2), underweight classified by body mass index (+2), location of the tumour (stomach +1), stage (III +2), stenosis in endoscopy (+1) and weight loss (+1). The score was grouped into low- (0-3), medium- (4-6) and high-risk (7+) subgroups. The median OS were 70.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.2-111.8], 23.4 (95% CI 21.2-26.7) and 12.6 (7.0-16.1) months, respectively. The 1-year survival probabilities were 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93), 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.39-0.74), whereas the 5-year survival probabilities were 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66), 0.24 (95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 0.09 (95% CI 0.03-0.28), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The VIennese risk prediction score for Oesophagogastric Localized Adenocarcinoma (VIOLA) risk prediction score poses a feasible tool for the estimation of OS in patients with regionally limited gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma and, thus, may improve patient management in clinical routine. Prospective analyses should be carried out to confirm our findings.

Survival Analysis of Gastric Cancer Patients Using Illness-Death Model In Kerman City, Southeast Iran during 2001-2016

BACKGROUND Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer death worldwide. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the survival of patients with GC using the illness-death model (metastasis as an intermediate event). METHODS In this retrospective cohort study, 339 patients with GC who were referred to Shahid Bahonar and Afzalipour Hospitals in Kerman, Southeast Iran during 2001-2016 were included. Demographic, therapeutic, and clinical data were collected from the patients' medical records. To evaluate the factors affecting patients' survival and the relationship between the factors, the illness-death model (metastasis as an intermediate event) was used. RESULTS One, three, and five-year survival rates in patients with GC were estimated to be 63%, 40%, and 30%, respectively. The results of analysis of illness-death model showed that age (HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97- 0.99; p = 0.007) and histological grade (HR = 1.77; 95% CI: 1.68- 2.67; p =0.007) affected metastasis whereas history of cigarette smoking (HR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.08- 3.3; p = 0.02) and chemotherapy (HR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.4-0.93; p = 0.02) affected death hazard without metastasis. History of opium use (HR=2.11; 95% CI: 1.17- 3.8; p = 0.002), family history of GC (HR = 2.48; 95% CI: 1.2-5.15; p = 0.01) and histological grade (HR = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.11- 3.08; p = 0.02) were identified as factors affecting death hazard in patients with metastasis. CONCLUSION According to the results, patients' age at the time of diagnosis and histological grade have a significant effect on the occurrence of metastasis. In addition, using the disease-death model, a complete understanding of the behavior and effects of the studied variables on different disease states can be realized.

Prognostic significance of sarcopenia in microsatellite-stable gastric cancer patients treated with programmed death-1 inhibitors

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia has been underscored as a significant predictor of poor prognosis in cancer patients undergoing immunotherapy with programmed death-1 (PD-1) inhibitors. We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of computed tomography (CT)-determined sarcopenia in patients with microsatellite-stable (MSS) gastric cancer (GC) treated with PD-1 inhibitors.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed patients with MSS GC who had been treated with PD-1 inhibitors from March 2016 to June 2019. Pre-treatment sarcopenic status was determined by analyzing L3 skeletal muscle index with abdominal CT. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the differences in survival probability according to sarcopenic status were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of PFS and OS.

RESULTS

Of 149 patients with MSS GC (mean age, 57.0 ± 12.3 years; 93 men), 79 (53.0%) had sarcopenia. Patients with sarcopenia had significantly shorter PFS than patients without sarcopenia (median, 1.4 months vs. 2.6 months; P = 0.026). Sarcopenia was independently associated with shorter PFS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.93; P = 0.020). Patients with sarcopenia had shorter OS than patients without sarcopenia (median, 3.6 months vs. 4.9 months; P = 0.052), but sarcopenia itself was not a significant prognostic factor for OS (adjusted HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.58-1.75; P = 0.974).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-determined sarcopenia is an independent prognostic factor for PFS in patients with MSS GC treated with PD-1 inhibitors.

The impact of age on prognosis in patients with gastric cancer: experience in a tertiary care centre

Background

Gastric cancer (GC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death in the world and most patients have advanced disease upon presentation. The effect of age on prognosis in GC is controversial. We aimed to determine the impact of age on survival in patients with GC.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of the medical records of Lebanese patients diagnosed with GC at the American University of Beirut Medical Center (AUBMC) between 2005 and 2014. Patients were divided into young (<65 years) and older groups (≥65 years). A multivariate analysis was done to determine the independent predictors of survival. Kaplan-Meier method was used for analysis of long-term survival outcomes.

Results

The sample consisted of 156 patients. The mean age was 62.15 (SD 13.54). Most patients presented with stage 4 disease (62.2%) and poorly differentiated histology (66.4%). The most common symptoms were abdominal pain and weight loss. On bivariate analysis, advanced stage (P=0.02) and higher grade (P=0.04) were associated with increased mortality. Patients <65 years of age were significantly more likely to have poorly differentiated tumours, while patients ≥65 years had more comorbidities (P=0.001). The 5-year DFS were 35% and 37% for patients <65 years of age and ≥65 years of age, respectively (P=0.15).

Conclusions

Higher grade and advanced stage are associated with worse survival in patients with GC, but age did not seem to have an impact. Screening high risk patients and early diagnosis are necessary to improve survival.

Role of Her-2 in Gastrointestinal Tumours beyond Gastric Cancer: A Tool for Precision Medicine

Gastrointestinal (GI) tumors account for a quarter of all the cancer burden and a third of the global cancer-related mortality. Among them, some cancers retain a dismal prognosis; therefore, newer and innovative therapies are urgently needed in priority disease areas of high-unmet medical need. In this context, HER2 could be a relevant prognostic and predictive biomarker acting as a target for specific drugs. However, if the role of HER2 has been object of investigation for several years in gastric cancer, it is not well established in other GI malignancies. The aim of this narrative review was to portray the current landscape of the potential role of HER2 as a predictive biomarker for GI tumors beyond gastric cancer. In colon cancer, the benefit from anti-HER2 therapies is less clear than in gastric neoplasms for the lack of controlled studies. Pancreatic, biliary tract adenocarcinomas and hepatocarcinoma may derive a less clear clinical benefit by using anti-HER2 agents in HER2 positive tumors. Overall, the results are promising and seem to suggest that the integration of multiple modalities of therapies can optimize the cancer care. However, further prospective trials are needed to validate the use of personalized targeted therapies in this field.

Prognostic role of body composition parameters in gastric/gastroesophageal junction cancer patients from the EXPAND trial

BACKGROUND

Body fat and/or muscle composition influences prognosis in several cancer types. For advanced gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancer, we investigated which body composition parameters carry prognostic information beyond well-established clinical parameters using robust model selection strategy such that parameters identified can be expected to generalize and to be reproducible beyond our particular data set. Then we modelled how differences in these parameters translate into survival outcomes.

METHODS

Fat and muscle parameters were measured on baseline computed tomography scans in 761 patients with advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer from the phase III EXPAND trial, undergoing first-line chemotherapy. Cox regression analysis for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) included body composition parameters and clinical prognostic factors. All continuous variables were entered linearly into the model as there was no evidence of non-linear prognostic impact. For transferability, the final model included only parameters that were picked by Bayesian information criterion model selection followed by bootstrap analysis to identify the most robust model.

RESULTS

Muscle and fat parameters formed correlation clusters without relevant between-cluster correlation. Mean muscle attenuation (MA) clusters with the fat parameters. In multivariate analysis, MA was prognostic for OS (P < 0.0001) but not for PFS, while skeletal muscle index was prognostic for PFS (P = 0.02) but not for OS. Worse performance status Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG 1/0), younger age (on a linear scale), and the number of metastatic sites were strong negative clinical prognostic factors for both OS and PFS. MA remained in the model for OS (P = 0.0001) following Bayesian information criterion model selection in contrast to skeletal muscle index that remained prognostic for PFS (P = 0.009). Applying stricter criteria for transferability, MA represented the only prognostic body composition parameter for OS, selected in >80% of bootstrap replicates. Finally, Cox model-derived survival curves indicated that large differences in MA translate into only moderate differences in expected OS in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Among body composition parameters, only MA has robust prognostic impact for OS. Data suggest that treatment approaches targeting muscle quality are unlikely to prolong OS noticeably on their own in advanced gastric cancer patients, indicating that multimodal approaches should be pursued in the future.

A multicentric Spanish study on the characteristics and survival of gastric adenocarcinoma under the age of 60

INTRODUCTION

In Europe, gastric adenocarcinoma (GADC) is commonly regarded as a disease of the elderly. This study aims to assess the proportion, characteristics, and survival of patients diagnosed with GADC under the age of 60.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective, multicentric, and analytical study conducted at four tertiary Spanish hospitals. All patients diagnosed with GADC between 2008 and 2015 were included. Demographic, clinical, endoscopic, histologic, and survival data were retrieved. A multivariate analysis was performed to compare GADC in young (age≤60 years) and elderly patients.

RESULTS

A total of 1374 patients with GADC were included. The mean age was 74 years (SD:11.1); 62.2% were males. There were 177 patients under the age of 60 (12.9%, 95% CI: 11.2-14.8%). GADC was frequently encountered as a metastatic disease in both young and elderly patients (Stage IV: 45.7% and 41%, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, alcohol abuse, ASA functional status I-II, diffuse subtype, neoadjuvant, and palliative therapy were independently associated (P<0.05) with age ≤60 years. No differences were found in 2-year survival (GADC ≤60: 39% vs. 35%, P=0.45). Curative-intent surgery, TNM stage I-II, body mass index<30kg/m², and better functional status at diagnosis were independent predictors of survival in GADC under the age of 60.

CONCLUSIONS

One out of eight cases of GADC were diagnosed under the age of 60. Metastatic disease was frequent at diagnosis and overall survival was poor regardless of age. Factors associated with localized disease correlated with improved survival in younger patients. Our results underline the need for early diagnosis strategies in our country.

Young Age and Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in Differentiated Type Early Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

Young patients with gastric cancer reportedly have a worse prognosis than older patients due to delayed diagnosis and more aggressive tumor behavior. However, it is unclear whether this applies to early gastric cancer (EGC), for which endoscopic resection is indicated. We investigated the association between age and lymph node metastasis (LNM).

METHODS

We identified 4055 patients diagnosed with EGC of differentiated histology who underwent surgery. The association between age and LNM was examined using logistic regression for each T stage separately with adjustments for multiple covariates. We compared LNM rates for each of the Japanese Endoscopic Resection Guidelines criteria in younger (< 40 years) and older patients (40 years).

RESULTS

The median number of lymph nodes examined was the same for T1a and T1b stages (n = 34). The median number of lymph nodes examined was not significantly different within T1a stage (P = 0.093), but within T1b stage, the number of lymph nodes examined was significantly different (P = 0.019). The highest number was between 50 and 59 years (median = 37), and the lowest number was in the 20 to 49 years and older than 70 age brackets (median = 34). LNM rate and age were not significantly associated within each stage (P values 0.269, 0.783 for T1a and T1b, respectively). Among patients fulfilling endoscopic resection criteria, the LNM rate in younger patients was lower than in older patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In differentiated-type EGC, young age at diagnosis was not associated with LNM rate. Therefore, endoscopic resection criteria for early gastric cancer can be applied to younger patients.