Nomograms for predicting the overall and cancer-specific survival of patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma: a SEER-based study

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in ductal carcinoma in situ with microinvasion: A SEER population-based study

BACKGROUND

Ductal carcinoma in situ with microinvasion (DCIS-MI) is a special type of breast cancer. It is an invasive lesion less than 1.0 mm in size related to simple ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Lymph node metastasis (LNM) in DCIS-MI often indicates a poor prognosis. Therefore, the management of lymph nodes plays a vital role in the treatment strategy of DCIS-MI. Since DCIS-MI is often diagnosed by postoperative paraffin section and immunohistochemical detection, to obtain the best clinical benefits for such patients, we aim to establish and verify a nomogram to predict the possibility of lymph node metastasis in DCIS-MI patients and help preoperative or intraoperative clinical decision-making.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients with DCIS-MI in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2019 was performed. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The risk factors were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort, and a nomogram was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram in the training set and validation set. An independent data cohort was obtained from the Shanghai Jiao Tong University Breast Cancer Database (SJTU-BCDB) for external validation.

RESULTS

This study included 3951 female patients from SEER with DCIS-MI, including 244 patients with regional lymph node metastasis, accounting for 6.18% of the total. An independent test set of 323 patients from SJTU-BCDB was used for external validation. According to the multifactorial logistic regression analysis results, age at diagnosis, ethnicity, grade, and surgical modality were included in the prediction model. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were 0.739 (95% CI: 0.702~0.775), 0.732 (95% CI: 0.675~0.788), and 0.707 (95%CI: 0.607-0.807) in the training, validation and external test groups, suggesting that the column line graphs had excellent differentiation. The calibration curves slope was close to 1, and the model's predicted values were in good agreement with the actual values. The DCA curves showed good clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we constructed accurate and practical columnar maps with some clinical benefit to predict the likelihood of lymph node metastasis in patients with postoperatively diagnosed DCIS-MI and provide a reference value for specifying treatment strategies.

Current perspectives on the management of refractory or relapsed classic hodgkin lymphoma in brazil: Balancing efficacy, safety, and tolerability

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (CHL), which accounts for 90-95% of all cases of Hodgkin lymphoma, is the most frequent cancer in adolescents and the most frequent lymphoma in adolescents and young adults. Despite progressive improvements over past decades and the general sensitivity of CHL to frontline chemotherapy, approximately 10-15% of patients have refractory disease that either does not respond to such therapy or progresses after an initial partial response. In patients with refractory or relapsed disease, standard treatment until recently consisted mainly of salvage chemotherapy, in many cases followed by high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem-cell transplantation. However, improved understanding of the pathobiology of CHL, coupled with the introduction of novel agents, has markedly changed the treatment landscape in the past decade. Although refractory or relapsed CHL continues to be challenging, the therapeutic landscape is undergoing profound changes brought about by novel agents, particularly brentuximab vedotin and immunotherapy. In this review, we discuss the most salient treatment options for adult patients with refractory or relapsed CHL, with a special focus on the Brazilian healthcare setting, which is constrained by inherent characteristics of this system. In the attempt to balance efficacy, safety and tolerability, practicing physicians must rely on clinical trials and on results from real-world studies, and use their own point of view and experience, as well as patient characteristics and previous therapy, to make treatment decisions for refractory or relapsed CHL.

Integrative Nomogram of Computed Tomography Radiomics, Clinical, and Tumor Immune Features for Analysis of Disease-Free Survival of NSCLC Patients with Surgery

To improve prognosis of cancer patients and determine the integrative value for analysis of disease-free survival prediction, a clinic investigation was performed involving with 146 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients (83 men and 73 women; mean age: 60.24 years ± 8.637) with a history of surgery. Their computed tomography (CT) radiomics, clinical records, and tumor immune features were firstly obtained and analyzed in this study. Histology and immunohistochemistry were also performed to establish a multimodal nomogram through the fitting model and cross-validation. Finally, Z test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate and compare the accuracy and difference of each model. In all, seven radiomics features were selected to construct the radiomics score model. The clinicopathological and immunological factors model, including T stage, N stage, microvascular invasion, smoking quantity, family history of cancer, and immunophenotyping. The C-index of the comprehensive nomogram model on the training set and test set was 0.8766 and 0.8426 respectively, which was better than that of the clinicopathological-radiomics model (Z test, P =0.041<0.05), radiomics model and clinicopathological model (Z test, P =0.013<0.05 and P =0.0097<0.05). Integrative nomogram based on computed tomography radiomics, clinical and immunophenotyping can be served as effective imaging biomarker to predict DFS of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection.

Lymph node status and its impact on the prognosis of left-sided and right-sided colon cancer: A SEER population-based study

Background

Some significant differences exist between the outcomes of left‐ and right‐sided colon cancer patients. The presence of nodal metastases is a critical prognostic factor, especially in the absence of distant metastasis. Our research studied the lymph nodes status of left‐ and right‐sided colon cancer patients to determine the influence of this factor on prognosis.

Methods

Our data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We used the chi‐square test to analyze the clinicopathological characteristics. The X‐tile program was adopted to acquire optimal cutoff points of lymph node index. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to analyze prognosis and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to identify the independent factors associated with survival. Nomograms were built to predict the overall survival of patients, Harrell's C‐index and calibration plots were used to validate the nomograms.

Results

The study included 189,941 patients with colon cancer without metastasis (left 69,885, right 120,056) between 2004 and 2015. There are more patients with adequate examined lymph nodes in right‐sided. Lymph node status in patients with right colon cancer has a more significant impact on the risk of death. LODDS (C‐index: 0.583; AIC: 6875.4) was used to assess lymph node status. The nomograms showed that lymph node status was the main factor to predict the outcome in right‐sided colon patients.

Conclusions

The influence of lymph node status on predicting prognosis is significantly different between patients with left and right colon cancer without metastasis. The tumor site needs to be considered when lymph node status is used to assess the outcome of patients.

Causes of death and effect of non-cancer-specific death on rates of overall survival in adult classic Hodgkin lymphoma: a populated-based competing risk analysis

Background

The improved prognosis of classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has been accompanied by elevated risks of non–cancer-specific death (non-CSD). The aim of this study was to verify the occurrence of non-CSD and its effect on rates of overall survival among adult patients with cHL.

Methods

To ensure sufficient follow-up time, we analyzed retrospective data from patients aged ≥20 years with cHL that was diagnosed between 1983 and 2005 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Logistic regression was applied to analyze the non-CSD occurrence in relation to all factors. Using Fine-Gray’s method, we calculated the cumulative incidences of CSD and non-CSD. Stacked cumulative incidence plots and ratio of non-CSD to all causes of death were applied to evaluate the effect of non-CSD on rates of overall survival. Finally, we analyzed long-term mortality through Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and competing risk regression analysis to emphasize a more appropriate model of survival for patients with cHL.

Results

Among the 18,518 patients included, there were 3768 cases of CSD (20.3%) and 3217 of non-CSD (17.4%). Older age, earlier period, male sex, unmarried status, mixed cellularity (MC) and lymphocyte-depletion (LD) histological subtype, and patients received radiotherapy (RT) only were associated with more non-CSD according to binary logistic analysis. The cumulative incidence of non-CSD exceeded CSD after approximately 280 months follow-up. The most common causes of non-CSDs were cardiovascular disease, subsequent primary neoplasms, infectious diseases, accidents, and suicide. In a Cox proportional hazards model, patients who were black, unmarried, at an advanced stage or underwent chemotherapy (CT) alone were at greater risk of mortality than were white patients, who were married, at an early stage, and underwent combined modality; these populations were also found to be at greater risk for CSD in a competing risk model, but the risk of non-CSD did not differ significantly according to race and marital status, patients with early-stage disease and who underwent RT only were found to be at higher risk of non-CSD instead.

Conclusions

Lymphoma was the cause of death in most patients who died, but non-CSD was not unusual. Patients with cHL should be monitored closely for signs of cardiovascular disease and malignant tumors. Rates of overall survival of patients were diminished by non-CSD, and a competing risk model was more suitable for establishing the prognosis than was the Cox proportional hazards model.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08683-x.

Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with small cell carcinoma of the esophagus: A population study based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

This study aims to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE).A total of 552 patients with SCCE from 1975 to 2016 were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors of patients, and a nomogram was constructed. The nomogram was then validated internally by using a consistency index (C-index) and a correction curve to evaluate its predictive value.The Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that age, stage, surgery, primary site, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were the prognostic factors of SCCE (P < .1), and they were used to construct the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.749 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.722-0.776). The data were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group based on 7:3 for internal validation. The C-indices of the modeling and validation groups were 0.753 and 0.725, respectively, and they were close to 0.749. The calibration curves exhibited good consistency between the predicted and actual survival rates.The nomogram of the survival and prognosis of patients with SCCE in this study had a good predictive value and could provide clinicians with accurate and practical predictive tools. It could also be used to facilitate a rapid and accurate assessment of patients' survival and prognosis on an individual basis.

Improving survival of 3760 patients with lymphoma: Experience of an academic center over two decades

Background

The treatment outcomes and prognosis of lymphoma are affected by various factors such as hospital types. This study was to describe the temporal trend in the survival of lymphoma in an academic center in China.

Methods

A total of 3840 consecutive patients with lymphoma diagnosed between 1996 and 2015 were reviewed. Eighty patients were excluded, and finally, 3760 patients were analyzed in this study. The cohort was divided into four groups according to calendar periods at diagnosis: 1996‐2000, 2001‐2005, 2006‐2010, and 2010‐2015. The overall survival (OS) rates among the four groups were compared.

Results

The 5‐ and 10‐year OS for the whole cohort were 62% and 52%, respectively. The 5‐year OS of patient with classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL), mature B‐cell lymphoma (BCL), and peripheral T‐cell lymphoma (PTCL) were 79%, 63%, and 50%, respectively. Among mature BCL, the 5‐year OS was highest in follicular lymphoma (77.8%), followed by Burkitt lymphoma (76.5%), marginal zone lymphoma (74.1%), diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (61.5%), small lymphocytic lymphoma/chronic lymphocytic leukemia (55.1%), and mantle cell lymphoma (44.3%). Among PTCL, the 5‐year OS was highest in ALK+anaplastic large cell lymphoma (79.0%), followed by ALK−anaplastic large cell lymphoma (63.1%), natural killer/T‐cell lymphoma (57.7%), angioimmunoblastic T‐cell lymphoma (34.9%, and peripheral T‐cell lymphoma not otherwise specified (27.6%). Significant improvement in the survival of lymphoma was observed, with the 5‐year OS increasing from 48% in 1996‐2000 to 65% in 2011‐2015 (P < .001). The 5‐year OS of patients with cHL, mature BCL, and PTCL changed from 55%, 49%, and 41% in 1996‐2000 to 79%, 65%, and 51% in 2011‐2015, respectively (P values were .014, .002, and .592, respectively).

Conclusion

The survival of most types of lymphoma such as cHL and mature BCL, rather than PTCL, was improved significantly during the past two decades.

Prognostic Nomogram for the Overall Survival of Patients with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

To establish a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM), 304 patients with newly diagnosed MM were recruited between June 1, 2010, and June 30, 2015, from the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, and randomly divided into training (n=214) and validation (n=90) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of multiple clinical and laboratory parameters on survival. Significant prognostic factors were combined to build a nomogram. The discriminative ability and predictive accuracy of the nomogram were evaluated using the index of concordance (C-index) and calibration curves and compared with the five staging systems currently used for MM. Multivariate analysis of the training cohort revealed that the age at diagnosis, clonal bone marrow plasma cells, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum β2-microglobulin, and del (17p) were independent risk factors for OS and were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index value of the nomogram for predicting OS was 0.749, which was significantly higher than the C-indices of the five most common staging systems currently used for MM. In the validation cohort, the C-index for nomogram-based predictions was 0.711 for OS, and the nomogram discrimination was better than the above mentioned five staging systems (P<0.001). All calibration curves revealed good consistency between predicted and actual survivals. The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the prognoses of patients with newly diagnosed MM.

Establishment and Verification of Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: A SEER-Based Study

With gastrointestinal tract as the origin, gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is recognized as the very widespread mesenchymal tumor. A precise prognostic model of survival is required to guide the treatment options of patients with GIST. This study was designed to map the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of GIST patients. According to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database, we acquired the data of 6,713 patients with GIST who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. We randomly separated the patients into training (n = 4,699) and validation (n = 2,014) groups. To assess the prognostic impact of multiple clinical parameters, the Kaplan-Meier approach and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were adopted, where essential prognostic variables were combined to create nomograms. The consistency index and curve of calibration had been adopted to assess nomogram discrimination ability and prediction accuracy. A multifactor analysis of the training cohort showed that age, gender, size of tumor, location, and primary surgery were remarkably related to survival, and these variables were applied to create nomograms. The nomogram demonstrated excellent accuracy in estimating 2-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS, with a C-index of 0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.723-0.757) for OS and 0.743 (95% CI, 0.718-0.768) for CSS. In the validation cohort, the nomogram-predicted C-index was 0.741 for OS (95%CI, 0.717-0.765) and 0.746 (95%CI, 0.713-0.779) for CSS. All calibration curves showed good consistency between predicted and actual survival. A new nomogram was created and verified to predict the OS and CSS of patients with GIST. These new prognostic models can help enhance the accuracy of survival outcome predictions, thus facilitating to provide constructive therapeutic suggestions.