Estimating dispersal among numerous sites using capture-recapture data

An integrated path for spatial capture-recapture and animal movement modeling

Ecologists and conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial capture-recapture (SCR) and movement modeling to study animal populations. Historically, SCR has focused on population-level processes (e.g., vital rates, abundance, density, and distribution), whereas animal movement modeling has focused on the behavior of individuals (e.g., activity budgets, resource selection, migration). Even though animal movement is clearly a driver of population-level patterns and dynamics, technical and conceptual developments to date have not forged a firm link between the two fields. Instead, movement modeling has typically focused on the individual level without providing a coherent scaling from individual- to population-level processes, whereas SCR has typically focused on the population level while greatly simplifying the movement processes that give rise to the observations underlying these models. In our view, the integration of SCR and animal movement modeling has tremendous potential for allowing ecologists to scale up from individuals to populations and advancing the types of inferences that can be made at the intersection of population, movement, and landscape ecology. Properly accounting for complex animal movement processes can also potentially reduce bias in estimators of population-level parameters, thereby improving inferences that are critical for species conservation and management. This introductory article to the Special Feature reviews recent advances in SCR and animal movement modeling, establishes a common notation, highlights potential advantages of linking individual-level (Lagrangian) movements to population-level (Eulerian) processes, and outlines a general conceptual framework for the integration of movement and SCR models. We then identify important avenues for future research, including key challenges and potential pitfalls in the developments and applications that lie ahead.

Nonideal nest box selection by tree swallows breeding in farmlands: Evidence for an ecological trap?

Animals are expected to select a breeding habitat using cues that should reflect, directly or not, the fitness outcome of the different habitat options. However, human-induced environmental changes can alter the relationships between habitat characteristics and their fitness consequences, leading to maladaptive habitat choices. The most severe case of such nonideal habitat selection is the ecological trap, which occurs when individuals prefer to settle in poor-quality habitats while better ones are available. Here, we studied the adaptiveness of nest box selection in a tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) population breeding over a 10-year period in a network of 400 nest boxes distributed along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, Canada. We first examined the effects of multiple environmental and social habitat characteristics on nest box preference to identify potential settlement cues. We then assessed the links between those cues and habitat quality as defined by the reproductive performance of individuals that settled early or late in nest boxes. We found that tree swallows preferred nesting in open habitats with high cover of perennial forage crops, high spring insect biomass, and high density of house sparrows (Passer domesticus), their main competitors for nest sites. They also preferred nesting where the density of breeders and their mean number of fledglings during the previous year were high. However, we detected mismatches between preference and habitat quality for several environmental variables. The density of competitors and conspecific social information showed severe mismatches, as their relationships to preference and breeding success went in opposite direction under certain circumstances. Spring food availability and agricultural landscape context, while related to preferences, were not related to breeding success. Overall, our study emphasizes the complexity of habitat selection behavior and provides evidence that multiple mechanisms may potentially lead to an ecological trap in farmlands.

Demography, genetics, and decline of a spatially structured population of lekking bird

Understanding the mechanisms underlying population decline is a critical challenge for conservation biologists. Both deterministic (e.g. habitat loss, fragmentation, and Allee effect) and stochastic (i.e. demographic and environmental stochasticity) demographic processes are involved in population decline. Simultaneously, a decrease of population size has far-reaching consequences for genetics of populations by increasing the risk of inbreeding and the strength of genetic drift, which together inevitably results in a loss of genetic diversity and a reduced effective population size ([Formula: see text]). These genetic factors may retroactively affect vital rates (a phenomenon coined 'inbreeding depression'), reduce population growth, and accelerate demographic decline. To date, most studies that have examined the demographic and genetic processes driving the decline of wild populations have neglected their spatial structure. In this study, we examined demographic and genetic factors involved in the decline of a spatially structured population of a lekking bird, the western capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus). To address this issue, we collected capture-recapture and genetic data over a 6-years period in the Vosges Mountains (France). Our study showed that the population of T. urogallus experienced a severe decline between 2010 and 2015. We did not detect any Allee effect on survival and recruitment. By contrast, individuals of both sexes dispersed to avoid small subpopulations, thus suggesting a potential behavioral response to a mate finding Allee effect. In parallel to this demographic decline, the population showed low levels of genetic diversity, high inbreeding and low effective population sizes at both subpopulation and population levels. Despite this, we did not detect evidence of inbreeding depression: neither adult survival nor recruitment were affected by individual inbreeding level. Our study underlines the benefit from combining demographic and genetic approaches to investigate processes that are involved in population decline.

Uncovering ecological state dynamics with hidden Markov models

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field studies, ecological state dynamics operating at any level of this hierarchy can often be unobservable or 'hidden'. Ecologists must therefore often contend with incomplete or indirect observations that are somehow related to these underlying processes. By formally disentangling state and observation processes based on simple yet powerful mathematical properties that can be used to describe many ecological phenomena, hidden Markov models (HMMs) can facilitate inferences about complex system state dynamics that might otherwise be intractable. However, HMMs have only recently begun to gain traction within the broader ecological community. We provide a gentle introduction to HMMs, establish some common terminology, review the immense scope of HMMs for applied ecological research and provide a tutorial on implementation and interpretation. By illustrating how practitioners can use a simple conceptual template to customise HMMs for their specific systems of interest, revealing methodological links between existing applications, and highlighting some practical considerations and limitations of these approaches, our goal is to help establish HMMs as a fundamental inferential tool for ecologists.

Kin-dependent dispersal influences relatedness and genetic structuring in a lek system

Kin selection and dispersal play a critical role in the evolution of cooperative breeding systems. Limited dispersal increases relatedness in spatially structured populations (population viscosity), with the result that neighbours tend to be genealogical relatives. Yet the increase in neighbours' fitness-related performance through altruistic interaction may also result in habitat saturation and thus exacerbate local competition between kin. Our goal was to detect the footprint of kin selection and competition by examining the spatial structure of relatedness and by comparing non-effective and effective dispersal in a population of a lekking bird, Tetrao urogallus. For this purpose, we analysed capture-recapture and genetic data collected over a 6-year period on a spatially structured population of T. urogallus in France. Our findings revealed a strong spatial structure of relatedness in males. They also indicated that the population viscosity could allow male cooperation through two non-exclusive mechanisms. First, at their first lek attendance, males aggregate in a lek composed of relatives. Second, the distance corresponding to non-effective dispersal dramatically outweighed effective dispersal distance, which suggests that dispersers incur high post-settlement costs. These two mechanisms result in strong population genetic structuring in males. In females, our findings revealed a lower level of spatial structure of relatedness and genetic structure in respect to males. Additionally, non-effective dispersal and effective dispersal distances in females were highly similar, which suggests limited post-settlement costs. These results indicate that kin-dependent dispersal decisions and costs have a genetic footprint in wild populations and are factors that may be involved in the evolution of cooperative courtship.

Transport infrastructure severely impacts amphibian dispersal regardless of life stage

Transport infrastructure such as roads has been reported to negatively affect dispersal. Their effects on dispersal are thought to be complex, depending on the characteristics of the structure and the intensity of the traffic using it. In addition, individual factors, such as age, may strongly affect dispersal decisions and success when individuals are confronted with transport infrastructure. Despite the importance of this topic for wildlife conservation, few studies have investigated the effect of transport infrastructure on individuals’ dispersal decisions before and after sexual maturity. We examined the effects on two kinds of infrastructure, gravel tracks and paved roads, on the dispersal of an endangered amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). We used capture–recapture data collected during a five-year period on a large, spatially structured population of B. variegata. Our study revealed that emigration rates increased with an individual’s age, while dispersal distance decreased. It also showed that both tracks and roads had negative effects on immigration. The negative effect of roads was stronger than that of tracks. We additionally found that the effect of tracks on dispersal slightly decreased with a toad’s age. In contrast, the negative effect of roads was severe and relatively similar across age classes.

Offspring mass variation in tree swallows: A case of bet‐hedging?

The evolution of reproductive strategies is affected by the ability of organisms to deal with future environmental conditions. When environments are temporally unpredictable, however, it is difficult to anticipate optimal offspring phenotype. Diversification of offspring phenotypes, a strategy called diversified bet‐hedging, may allow parents to maximize their fitness by reducing between‐year variation in reproductive success. The link between diversification of offspring phenotypes and individual reproductive success, however, has rarely been documented empirically. We used an eight‐year dataset (1215 broods, 870 females) on individually marked tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) to assess whether intra‐brood mass variation was compatible with a diversified bet‐hedging strategy. Intra‐brood mass variation was weakly, but significantly repeatable within females, suggesting consistent individual differences. Greater intra‐brood mass variation, however, was not associated with reduced between‐year variation in reproductive success or increased female reproductive success. Moreover, contrary to diversified bet‐hedging expectations, fledging success of large broods was greater when hatchlings had similar rather than variable masses. Our results suggest that intra‐brood mass variation may not result from diversified bet‐hedging, but rather from complex interactions between environmental, brood, and maternal characteristics.

Context-dependent dispersal, public information, and heterospecific attraction in newts

Dispersal is one of the main processes that determine community structure. Individuals make dispersal decisions according to environmental and/or social cues that reflect the fitness prospects in a given patch. The presence and abundance of heterospecifics within the same ecological guild, and/or their breeding success, may act as public information that influences movement decisions. To date, most studies investigating the role of heterospecific attraction have focused on habitat choice, using both experimental and correlational approaches. The present study is the first to examine how long-term variation in heterospecific density in breeding patches may affect dispersal patterns in spatially structured populations. We investigate how the dispersal decisions of the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) are related to the variable density of two other newt species, the alpine newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris) and the palmate newt (Lissotriton helveticus). To examine this issue, we used capture-recapture data collected in an experimental pond network over a 20-year period. The results revealed that the great crested newt's dispersal is context dependent and is affected by variation in heterospecific density: individuals were less likely to emigrate from ponds with high heterospecific density and were more likely to immigrate to ponds with high heterospecific density. These findings suggest that individuals adjust their dispersal decisions at least partly based on public information provided by heterospecifics. This mechanism may play a critical role in the dynamics of spatially structured populations and community functioning.

Does habitat unpredictability promote the evolution of a colonizer syndrome in amphibian metapopulations?

Dispersal is a central component of life history evolution. An increasing number of studies suggest that spatiotemporally variable environments may promote the evolution of "dispersal syndromes," consisting of covariation patterns between dispersal and morphological, physiological, behavioral, and life history traits. At the interspecific scale, the "colonizer syndrome" appears to be one of the most frequently recorded associations between dispersal and life history traits, linking a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan as systematically combined adaptations in spatiotemporally varying environments. However, few studies have highlighted the existence of a "colonizer syndrome" at the intraspecific scale, and none have investigated how different degrees of habitat stochasticity might shape covariation patterns between dispersal and life history traits. In this study, we examined this issue in free-ranging metapopulations of the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata) using capture-recapture data. Combining the results of this study with another recent study, we found that a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan are associated in metapopulations experiencing unpredictable environments. In contrast, a very low dispersal rate (close to zero), low fecundity and a long lifespan are associated in metapopulations occupying predictable environments. We discuss these results as well as their demographic and evolutionary consequences.

Estimating dispersal in spatiotemporally variable environments using multievent capture-recapture modeling

Dispersal is a key process in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Spatiotemporal variation in habitat availability and characteristics has been suggested to be one of the main cause involved in dispersal evolution and has a strong influence on metapopulation dynamics. In recent decades, the study of dispersal has led to the development of capture-recapture (CR) models that allow movement between sites to be quantified, while handling imperfect detection. For studies involving numerous recapture sites, Lagrange et al. () proposed a multievent CR model that allows dispersal to be estimated while omitting site identity by distinguishing between individuals that stay and individuals that move. More recently, Cayuela et al. () extended this model to allow survival and dispersal probabilities to differ for the different types of habitat represented by several sites within a study area. Yet in both of these modeling systems, the state of sites is assumed to be static over time, which is not a realistic assumption in dynamic landscapes. For that purpose, we generalized the multievent CR model proposed by Cayuela et al. () to allow the estimation of dispersal, survival and recapture probabilities when a site may appear or disappear over time (MODEL 1) or when the characteristics of a site fluctuate over space and time (MODEL 2). This paper first presents these two new modeling systems, and then provides an illustration of their efficacy and usefulness by applying them to simulated CR data and data collected on two metapopulations of amphibians. MODEL 1 was tested using CR data recorded on a metapopulation of yellow-bellied toads (Bombina variegata). In this first empirical case, we examined whether the drying-out dynamics of ponds and the past dispersal status of an individual might affect dispersal behavior. Our study revealed that the probability of facultative dispersal (i.e., from a pond group that remained available/flooded) fluctuated between years and was higher in individuals that had previously dispersed. MODEL 2 was tested using CR data collected on a metapopulation of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus). In this second empirical example, we investigated whether the density of alpine newts (Ichthyosaura alpestris), a potential competitor, might affect the dispersal and survival of the crested newt. Our study revealed that the departure rate was lower in ponds with a high density of heterospecifics than in ponds with a low density of heterospecifics at both inter-annual and intra-annual scales. Moreover, annual survival was slightly higher in ponds with a high density of heterospecifics. Overall, our findings indicate that these multievent CR models provide a highly flexible means of modeling dispersal in dynamic landscapes.

Environmental determinants of haemosporidian parasite prevalence in a declining population of Tree swallows

The prevalence of vector-borne parasites such as haemosporidian species is influenced by several environmental factors. While the negative effects of parasitism on hosts are well documented, these can also be amplified by interactions with environmental stressors, many of which are anthropogenic. Yet, we know little about the possible effects of anthropogenic perturbations on parasite prevalence. The goals of this study were to assess the prevalence and environmental determinants of haemosporidian parasites in a declining population of Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) living in an agricultural landscape in southern Québec, Canada. Overall, a low prevalence and a moderate lineage diversity were identified in both adults and nestlings, confirming that transmission can occur during the breeding period. Anthropic areas, extensive cultures (hayfields and pastures) and forest cover within 500 km of nest boxes, as well as daily temperature fluctuations, were all related to infection by haemosporidian parasites. These findings suggest that anthropogenic alterations of landscape composition can modulate the prevalence of haemosporidian parasites in Tree swallows. Our results represent a baseline for future comparative studies assessing haemosporidian parasite prevalence in human-modified landscapes.

Assessment of individual and conspecific reproductive success as determinants of breeding dispersal of female tree swallows: A capture-recapture approach

Breeding dispersal is a key process of population structure and dynamics and is often triggered by an individual's breeding failure. In both colonial and territorial birds, reproductive success of conspecifics (RSc) can also lead individuals to change breeding sites after a failure on a site. Yet, few studies have simultaneously investigated the independent contribution of individual reproductive success (RSi) and of RSc on dispersal decision. Here, we develop a modeling framework to disentangle the effects of RSi and RSc on demographic parameters, while accounting for imperfect individual detection and other confounding factors such as age or dispersal behavior in the previous year. Using a 10‐year capture–recapture dataset composed of 1,595 banded tree swallows, we assessed the effects of nonmanipulated RSi and RSc on female breeding dispersal in this semicolonial passerine. Dispersal was strongly driven by RSi, but not by RSc. Unsuccessful females were 9.5–2.5 times more likely to disperse than successful ones, depending if they had dispersed or not in the previous year, respectively. Unsuccessful females were also three times less likely to be detected than successful ones. Contrary to theoretical and empirical studies, RSc did not drive the decision to disperse but influenced the selection of the following breeding site once dispersal had been initiated. Because detection of individuals was driven by RSi, which was positively correlated to RSc, assuming a perfect detection as in previous studies may have lead us to conclude that RSc affected dispersal patterns, yet our approach corrected for this bias. Overall, our results suggest that the value and use of RSc as public information to guide dispersal decisions are likely dictated by multiple ecological determinants, such as landscape structure and extent, if this cue is indeed used.

Patterns of Diversity and Spatial Variability of β-Defensin Innate Immune Genes in a Declining Wild Population of Tree Swallows

Assessing the genetic variation and distribution of immune genes across heterogeneous environmental conditions in wild species is essential to further our understanding of the role of pathogen pressure and potential resistance or prevalence in hosts. Researchers have recently investigated β-defensin genes in the wild, because their variability suggests that they may play an important role in innate host defense. This study investigated the variation occurring at 6 innate immune genes of the β-defensin family in a declining population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) in southern Québec, Canada (N = 160). We found that all 6 genes showed synonymous and nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the exon coding for the mature peptide. These results indicated that this group of genes was diverse in tree swallows. Our results suggested a potential interaction of this group of genes with fluctuating pathogen diversity, however, we found no sign of positive or negative selection. We assessed whether or not the distribution of genetic diversity of β-defensin genes in our study population differed between 2 regions that strongly differ in their level of agricultural intensification. Adults are highly philopatric to their breeding sites and their immunological responses differ between these 2 regions. However, we found little evidence that the level and distribution of genetic variability differed between these heterogeneous environmental conditions. Further studies should aim to assess the link between genetic diversity of β-defensin genes and fitness-related traits in wild populations.

Dead or gone? Bayesian inference on mortality for the dispersing sex

Estimates of age‐specific mortality are regularly used in ecology, evolution, and conservation research. However, estimating mortality of the dispersing sex, in species where one sex undergoes natal dispersal, is difficult. This is because it is often unclear whether members of the dispersing sex that disappear from monitored areas have died or dispersed. Here, we develop an extension of a multievent model that imputes dispersal state (i.e., died or dispersed) for uncertain records of the dispersing sex as a latent state and estimates age‐specific mortality and dispersal parameters in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. To check the performance of our model, we first conduct a simulation study. We then apply our model to a long‐term data set of African lions. Using these data, we further study how well our model estimates mortality of the dispersing sex by incrementally reducing the level of uncertainty in the records of male lions. We achieve this by taking advantage of an expert's indication on the likely fate of each missing male (i.e., likely died or dispersed). We find that our model produces accurate mortality estimates for simulated data of varying sample sizes and proportions of uncertain male records. From the empirical study, we learned that our model provides similar mortality estimates for different levels of uncertainty in records. However, a sensitivity of the mortality estimates to varying uncertainty is, as can be expected, detectable. We conclude that our model provides a solution to the challenge of estimating mortality of the dispersing sex in species with data deficiency due to natal dispersal. Given the utility of sex‐specific mortality estimates in biological and conservation research, and the virtual ubiquity of sex‐biased dispersal, our model will be useful to a wide variety of applications.

Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change

Most phenological traits are extremely sensitive to current climate change, and advances in the timing of important life-history events have been observed in many species. In birds, phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature is thought to be the main mechanism underlying yearly adjustment in the timing of breeding. However, other factors could be important and interact to affect the levels of plastic responses between and/or within-individuals. Here, we use long-term individual-based data on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to identify the spatial and environmental drivers affecting plasticity in laying date and to assess their importance at both population and individual levels. We found that laying date has advanced by 4.2 days over 10 years, and that it was mainly influenced by latitude and an interaction between spring temperature and breeder density. Analyses of individual plasticity showed that increases in temperature, but not in breeder density, resulted in within-individual advances in laying date. Our results suggest that females can adjust their laying date as a function of temperature, but that this adjustment will be partly constrained in habitats with lower breeder densities. Such potential constraint is especially worrying for the broad array of species already declining as a result of climate change.

Severe recent decrease of adult body mass in a declining insectivorous bird population

Migratory bird species that feed on air-borne insects are experiencing widespread regional declines, but these remain poorly understood. Agricultural intensification in the breeding range is often regarded as one of the main drivers of these declines. Here, we tested the hypothesis that body mass in breeding individuals should reflect habitat quality in an aerial insectivore, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a gradient of agricultural intensity. Our dataset was collected over 7 years (2005-2011) and included 2918 swallow captures and 1483 broods. Analyses revealed a substantial decline of the population over the course of the study (-19% occupancy rate), mirrored by decreasing body mass. This trend was especially severe in females, representing a total loss of 8% of their mass. Reproductive success was negatively influenced by intensive agriculture, but did not decrease over time. Interestingly, variation in body mass was independent of breeding habitat quality, leading us to suggest that this decline in body mass may result from carry-over effects from non-breeding areas and affect population dynamics through reduced survival. This work contributes to the growing body of evidence suggesting that declines in migratory aerial insectivores are driven by multiple, complex factors requiring better knowledge of year-round habitat use.