Masting promotes transformation from predation to mutualism in an oak-weevil-rodent system

The significance of ecological non-monotonicity (a function whose first derivative changes signs) in shaping the structure and functions of the ecosystem has recently been recognized, but such studies involving high-order interactions are rare. Here, we have proposed a three-trophic conceptual diagram on interactions among trees, rodents, and insects in mast and non-mast years and tested the hypothesis that oak (Quercus wutaishanica) masting could result in increased mutualism and less predation in an oak-weevil-rodent system in a warm temperate forest of China. Our 14-year dataset revealed that mast years coincided with a relatively low rodent abundance but a high weevil abundance. Masting not only benefited seedling recruitment of oaks through increased dispersal by rodents but also a decrease in predation by rodents and weevils, as well as an increase in the overwintering survival of rodents. Masting appeared to have increased weevil survival by reducing predation of infested acorns by rodents. These results suggest that masting benefits all participants in the plant-insect-rodent system by increasing mutualism and reducing predation behavior (i.e., a non-monotonic function). Our study highlights the significance of masting in maintaining the diversity and function of the forest ecosystem by facilitating the transformation from predation to mutualism among trophic species.

Strong habitat and seasonal phenology effects on the evolution of self-compatibility, clonality and pollinator shifts in Lachenalia (Asparagaceae: Scilloideae)

Plants employ a diversity of reproductive safeguarding strategies to circumvent the challenge of pollen limitation. Focusing on southern African Lachenalia (Asparagaceae: Scilloideae), we test the hypothesis that the evolution of reproductive safeguarding traits (self-compatibility, autonomous selfing, bird pollination and clonal propagation) is favoured in species occupying conditions of low insect abundance imposed by critically infertile fynbos heathland vegetation and by flowering outside the austral spring insect abundance peak. We trace the evolution of these traits and selective regimes on a dated, multi-locus phylogeny of Lachenalia and assess their evolutionary associations using ordinary and phylogenetic regression. Ancestral state reconstructions identify an association with non-fynbos vegetation and spring flowering as ancestral in Lachenalia, the transition to fynbos vegetation and non-spring flowering taking place multiple times. They also show that self-compatibility, autofertility, bird pollination and production of multiple clonal offsets have evolved repeatedly. Regression models suggest that bird pollination and self-compatibility are selected for in fynbos and in non-spring flowering lineages, with autofertility being positively associated with non-spring flowering. These patterns support the interpretation of these traits as reproductive safeguarding adaptations under reduced insect pollinator abundance. We find no evidence to support the interpretation of clonal propagation as a reproductive safeguarding strategy.

The effects of ENSO and the North American monsoon on mast seeding in two Rocky Mountain conifer species

We aimed to disentangle the patterns of synchronous and variable cone production (i.e. masting) and its relationship to climate in two conifer species native to dry forests of western North America. We used cone abscission scars to reconstruct ca 15 years of recent cone production in Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa, and used redundancy analysis to relate time series of annual cone production to climate indices describing the North American monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that the sensitivity to climate and resulting synchrony in cone production varies substantially between species. Cone production among populations of P. edulis was much more spatially synchronous and more closely related to large-scale modes of climate variability than among populations of P. ponderosa. Large-scale synchrony in P. edulis cone production was associated with the North American monsoon and we identified a dipole pattern of regional cone production associated with ENSO phase. In P. ponderosa, these climate indices were not strongly associated with cone production, resulting in asynchronous masting patterns among populations. This study helps frame our understanding of mast seeding as a life-history strategy and has implications for our ability to forecast mast years in these species. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Geographic patterns of seed trait variation in an invasive species: how much can close populations differ?

Seeds play a major role in plant species persistence and expansion, and therefore they are essential when modeling species dynamics. However, homogeneity in seed traits is generally assumed, underestimating intraspecific trait variability across the geographic space, which might bias species success models. The aim of this study was to evaluate the existence and consequences of interpopulation variability in seed traits of the invasive species Carpobrotus edulis at different geographical scales. We measured seed production, morphology, vigour and longevity of nine populations of C. edulis along the Catalan coast (NE Spain) from three differentiated zones with a human presence gradient. Geographic distances between populations were contrasted against individual and multivariate trait distances to explore trait variation along the territory, evaluating the role of bioclimatic variables and human density of the different zones. The analysis revealed high interpopulation variability that was not explained by geographic distance, as regardless of the little distance between some populations (< 0.5 km), significant differences were found in several seed traits. Seed production, germination, and persistence traits showed the strongest spatial variability up to 6000% of percent trait variability between populations, leading to differentiated C. edulis soil seed bank dynamics at small distances, which may demand differentiated strategies for a cost-effective species management. Seed trait variability was influenced by human density but also bioclimatic conditions, suggesting a potential impact of increased anthropogenic pressure and climate shifts. Geographic interpopulation trait variation should be included in ecological models and will be important for assessing species responses to environmental heterogeneity and change.

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants.

Forecasting the seasonal pollen index by using a hidden Markov model combining meteorological and biological factors

The seasonal pollen index (SPI) is a continuing concern within the fields of aerobiology, ecology, botany, and epidemiology. The SPI of anemophilous trees, which varies substantially from year to year, reflects the flowering intensity. This intensity is regulated by two factors: weather conditions during flower formation and the inner resource for assimilation. A deterministic approach has to date been employed for predicting SPI, in which the forecast is made entirely by parameters. However, given the complexity of the masting mechanism (which has intrinsic stochastic properties), few attempts have been made to apply a stochastic model that considers the inter-annual SPI variation as a stochastic process. We propose a hidden Markov model that can integrate the stochastic process of mast flowering and the meteorological conditions influencing flower formation to predict the annual birch pollen concentration. In experiments conducted, the model was trained and validated by using data in Hokkaido, Japan covering 22 years. In the model, the hidden Markov sequence was assigned to represent the recurrence of mast years via a transition matrix, and the observation sequences were designated as meteorological conditions in the previous summer, which are governed by hidden states with emission distribution. The proposed model achieved accuracies of 83.3% in the training period and 75.0% in the test period. Thus, the proposed model can provide an alternative perspective toward the SPI forecast and probabilistic information of pollen levels as a useful reference for allergy stakeholders.

Environmental Veto Synchronizes Mast Seeding in Four Contrasting Tree Species

Synchronized and variable reproduction by perennial plants, called mast seeding, is a major reproductive strategy of trees. The need to accumulate sufficient resources after depletion following fruiting (resource budget), the efficiency of mass flowering for outcross pollination (pollen coupling), or the external factors preventing reproduction (environmental veto) could all synchronize masting. We used seed production data for four species (Quercus ilex, Quercus humilis, Sorbus aucuparia, and Pinus albicaulis) to parametrize resource budget models of masting. Based on species life-history characteristics, we hypothesized that pollen coupling should synchronize reproduction in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis, while in Q. ilex and Q. humilis, environmental veto should be a major factor. Pollen coupling was stronger in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis than in oaks, while veto was more frequent in the latter. Yet in all species, costs of reproduction were too small to impose a replenishment period. A synchronous environmental veto, in the presence of environmental stochasticity, was sufficient to produce observed variability and synchrony in reproduction. In the past, vetoes like frost events that prevent reproduction have been perceived as negative for plants. In fact, they could be selectively favored as a way to create mast seeding.

Weather cues associated with masting behavior dampen the negative autocorrelation between past and current reproduction in oaks

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The influence of weather conditions on masting and the ecological advantages of this reproductive behavior have been the subject of much interest. Weather conditions act as cues influencing reproduction of individual plants, and similar responses expressed across many individuals lead to population-level synchrony in reproductive output. In turn, synchrony leads to benefits from economies of scale such as enhanced pollination success and seed predator satiation. However, there may also be individual-level benefits from reproductive responses to weather cues, which may explain the origin of masting in the absence of economies of scale. In a previous study, we found support for a mechanism whereby individual responses to weather cues attenuate the negative autocorrelation between past and current annual seed production-a pattern typically attributed to resource limitation and reproductive tradeoffs among years.

METHODS

Here we provide a follow-up and more robust evaluation of this hypothesis in 12 species of oaks (Quercus spp.), testing for a negative autocorrelation (tradeoff) between past and current reproduction and whether responses to weather cues associated with masting reduce the strength of this negative autocorrelation.

KEY RESULTS

Our results showed a strong negative autocorrelation for 11 of the species, and that species-specific reproductive responses to weather cues dampened this negative autocorrelation in 10 of them.

CONCLUSIONS

This dampening effect presumably reflects a reduction in resource limitation or increased resource use associated with weather conditions, and suggests that responses to weather cues conferring these advantages should be selected for based on individual benefits.

The Moran effect and environmental vetoes: phenological synchrony and drought drive seed production in a Mediterranean oak

Masting is the highly variable production of synchronized seed crops, and is a common reproductive strategy in plants. Weather has long been recognized as centrally involved in driving seed production in masting plants. However, the theory behind mechanisms connecting weather and seeding variation has only recently been developed, and still lacks empirical evaluation. We used 12-year long seed production data for 255 holm oaks (Quercus ilex), as well as airborne pollen and meteorological data, and tested whether masting is driven by environmental constraints: phenological synchrony and associated pollination efficiency, and drought-related acorn abscission. We found that warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons, and length of the pollen seasons was negatively related to acorn production, supporting the phenological synchrony hypothesis. Furthermore, the relationship between phenological synchrony and acorn production was modulated by spring drought, and effects of environmental vetoes on seed production were dependent on last year's environmental constraint, implying passive resource storage. Both vetoes affected among-tree synchrony in seed production. Finally, precipitation preceding acorn maturation was positively related to seed production, mitigating apparent resource depletion following high crop production in the previous year. These results provide new insights into mechanisms beyond widely reported weather and seed production correlations.

Effectiveness of predator satiation in masting oaks is negatively affected by conspecific density

Variation in seed availability shapes plant communities, and is strongly affected by seed predation. In some plant species, temporal variation in seed production is especially high and synchronized over large areas, which is called ‘mast seeding’. One selective advantage of this phenomenon is predator satiation which posits that masting helps plants escape seed predation through starvation of predators in lean years, and satiation in mast years. However, even though seed predation can be predicted to have a strong spatial component and depend on plant densities, whether the effectiveness of predator satiation in masting plants changes according to the Janzen-Connell effect has been barely investigated. We studied, over an 8-year period, the seed production, the spatiotemporal patters of weevil seed predation, and the abundance of adult weevils in a holm oak (Quercus ilex) population that consists of trees interspersed at patches covering a continuum of conspecific density. Isolated oaks effectively satiate predators, but this is trumped by increasing conspecific plant density. Lack of predator satiation in trees growing in dense patches was caused by re-distribution of insects among plants that likely attenuated them against food shortage in lean years, and changed the type of weevil functional response from type II in isolated trees to type III in trees growing in dense patches. This study provides the first empirical evaluation of the notion that masting and predator satiation should be more important in populations that start to dominate their communities, and is consistent with the observation that masting is less frequent and less intense in diverse forests.

Masting in wind-pollinated trees: system-specific roles of weather and pollination dynamics in driving seed production

Masting, the highly variable production of synchronized large seed crops, is a common reproductive strategy in plant populations. In wind-pollinated trees, flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesized to provide the mechanistic link for the well-known relationship between weather and population-level seed production. Several hypotheses make predictions about the effect of weather on annual pollination success. The pollen coupling hypothesis predicts that weather and plant resources drive the flowering effort of trees, which directly translates into the size of seed crops through efficient pollination. In contrast, the pollination Moran effect hypothesis predicts that weather affects pollination efficiency, leading to occasional bumper crops. Furthermore, the recently formulated phenology synchrony hypothesis predicts that Moran effects can arise because of weather effects on flowering synchrony, which, in turn, drives pollination efficiency. We investigated the relationship between weather, airborne pollen, and seed production in common European trees, two oak species (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) with a 19-yr data set from three sites in Poland. Our results show that warm summers preceding flowering correlated with high pollen abundance and warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons (i.e., high flowering synchrony) for all three species. Pollen abundance was the best predictor for seed crops in beech, as predicted under pollen coupling. In oaks, short pollen seasons, rather than pollen abundance, correlated with large seed crops, providing support for the pollination Moran effect and phenology synchrony hypotheses. Fundamentally different mechanisms may therefore drive masting in species of the family Fagacae.

Masting behaviour in a Mediterranean pine tree alters seed predator selection on reproductive output

Context-dependency in species interactions is widespread and can produce concomitant patterns of context-dependent selection. Masting (synchronous production of large seed crops at irregular intervals by a plant population) has been shown to reduce seed predation through satiation (reduction in rates of seed predation with increasing seed cone output) and thus represents an important source of context-dependency in plant-animal interactions. However, the evolutionary consequences of such dynamics are not well understood. Here we describe masting behaviour in a Mediterranean model pine species (Pinus pinaster) and present a test of the effects of masting on selection by seed predators on reproductive output. We predicted that masting, by enhancing seed predator satiation, could in turn strengthen positive selection by seed predators for larger cone output. For this we collected six-year data (spanning one mast year and five non-mast years) on seed cone production and seed cone predation rates in a forest genetic trial composed by 116 P. pinaster genotypes. Following our prediction, we found stronger seed predator satiation during the masting year, which in turn led to stronger seed predator selection for increased cone production relative to non-masting years. These findings provide evidence that masting can alter the evolutionary outcome of plant-seed predator interactions. More broadly, our findings highlight that changes in consumer responses to resource abundance represent a widespread mechanism for predicting and understanding context dependency in plant-consumer evolutionary dynamics.

Parameterisation and validation of a resource budget model for masting using spatiotemporal flowering data of individual trees

Synchronised and fluctuating reproduction by plant populations, called masting, is widespread in diverse taxonomic groups. Here, we propose a new method to explore the proximate mechanism of masting by combining spatiotemporal flowering data, biochemical analysis of resource allocation and mathematical modelling. Flowering data of 170 trees over 13 years showed the emergence of clustering with trees in a given cluster mutually synchronised in reproduction, which was successfully explained by resource budget models. Analysis of resources invested in the development of reproductive organs showed that parametric values used in the model are significantly different between nitrogen and carbon. Using a fully parameterised model, we showed that the observed flowering pattern is explained only when the interplay between nitrogen dynamics and climatic cues was considered. This result indicates that our approach successfully identified resource type-specific roles on masting and that the method is suitable for a wide range of plant species.

Advantages of masting in European beech: timing of granivore satiation and benefits of seed caching support the predator dispersal hypothesis

The predator satiation and predator dispersal hypotheses provide alternative explanations for masting. Both assume satiation of seed-eating vertebrates. They differ in whether satiation occurs before or after seed removal and caching by granivores (predator satiation and predator dispersal, respectively). This difference is largely unrecognized, but it is demographically important because cached seeds are dispersed and often have a microsite advantage over nondispersed seeds. We conducted rodent exclosure experiments in two mast and two nonmast years to test predictions of the predator dispersal hypothesis in our study system of yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). Specifically, we tested whether the fraction of seeds removed from the forest floor is similar during mast and nonmast years (i.e., lack of satiation before seed caching), whether masting decreases the removal of cached seeds (i.e., satiation after seed storage), and whether seed caching increases the probability of seedling emergence. We found that masting did not result in satiation at the seed removal stage. However, masting decreased the removal of cached seeds, and seed caching dramatically increased the probability of seedling emergence relative to noncached seeds. European beech thus benefits from masting through the satiation of scatterhoarders that occurs only after seeds are removed and cached. Although these findings do not exclude other evolutionary advantages of beech masting, they indicate that fitness benefits of masting extend beyond the most commonly considered advantages of predator satiation and increased pollination efficiency.