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Krab EJ, Lundin EJ, Coulson SJ, Dorrepaal E, Cooper EJ. Experimentally increased snow depth affects high Arctic microarthropods inconsistently over two consecutive winters. Sci Rep 2022; 12:18049. [PMID: 36302819 PMCID: PMC9613649 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22591-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change induced alterations to winter conditions may affect decomposer organisms controlling the vast carbon stores in northern soils. Soil microarthropods are particularly abundant decomposers in Arctic ecosystems. We studied whether increased snow depth affected microarthropods, and if effects were consistent over two consecutive winters. We sampled Collembola and soil mites from a snow accumulation experiment at Svalbard in early summer and used soil microclimatic data to explore to which aspects of winter climate microarthropods are most sensitive. Community densities differed substantially between years and increased snow depth had inconsistent effects. Deeper snow hardly affected microarthropods in 2015, but decreased densities and altered relative abundances of microarthropods and Collembola species after a milder winter in 2016. Although increased snow depth increased soil temperatures by 3.2 °C throughout the snow cover periods, the best microclimatic predictors of microarthropod density changes were spring soil temperature and snowmelt day. Our study shows that extrapolation of observations of decomposer responses to altered winter climate conditions to future scenarios should be avoided when communities are only sampled on a single occasion, since effects of longer-term gradual changes in winter climate may be obscured by inter-annual weather variability and natural variability in population sizes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eveline J. Krab
- grid.6341.00000 0000 8578 2742Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 75007 Uppsala, Sweden ,grid.12650.300000 0001 1034 3451Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Climate Impacts Research Centre, Umeå University, 98107 Abisko, Sweden
| | - Erik J. Lundin
- grid.417583.c0000 0001 1287 0220Swedish Polar Research Secretariat, Abisko Scientific Research Station, 98107 Abisko, Sweden
| | - Stephen J. Coulson
- grid.6341.00000 0000 8578 2742SLU Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 75007 Uppsala, Sweden ,grid.20898.3b0000 0004 0428 2244Department of Arctic Biology, University Centre in Svalbard, PO Box 156, 9171 Longyearbyen, Norway
| | - Ellen Dorrepaal
- grid.12650.300000 0001 1034 3451Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Climate Impacts Research Centre, Umeå University, 98107 Abisko, Sweden
| | - Elisabeth J. Cooper
- grid.10919.300000000122595234Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences Fisheries and Economics, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
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2
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Boyle JS, Angers-Blondin S, Assmann JJ, Myers-Smith IH. Summer temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth of Salix arctica in coastal Arctic tundra. Polar Biol 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-022-03074-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
AbstractArctic climate change is leading to an advance of plant phenology (the timing of life history events) with uncertain impacts on tundra ecosystems. Although the lengthening of the growing season is thought to lead to increased plant growth, we have few studies of how plant phenology change is altering tundra plant productivity. Here, we test the correspondence between 14 years of Salix arctica phenology data and radial growth on Qikiqtaruk–Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. We analysed stems from 28 individuals using dendroecology and linear mixed-effect models to test the statistical power of growing season length and climate variables to individually predict radial growth. We found that summer temperature best explained annual variation in radial growth. We found no strong evidence that leaf emergence date, earlier leaf senescence date, or total growing season length had any direct or lagged effects on radial growth. Radial growth was also not explained by interannual variation in precipitation, MODIS surface greenness (NDVI), or sea ice concentration. Our results demonstrate that at this site, for the widely distributed species S. arctica, temperature—but not growing season length—influences radial growth. These findings challenge the assumption that advancing phenology and longer growing seasons will increase the productivity of all plant species in Arctic tundra ecosystems.
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3
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Willems FM, Scheepens JF, Bossdorf O. Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2022; 235:52-65. [PMID: 35478407 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases. We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account. On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor. Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Franziska M Willems
- Plant Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, 72076, Tübingen, Germany
- Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, University of Marburg, 35032, Marburg, Germany
| | - J F Scheepens
- Plant Evolutionary Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Oliver Bossdorf
- Plant Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, 72076, Tübingen, Germany
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4
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Ósvaldsson A, Chesler MK, Burns JH. Effects of snow on reproduction of perennial Thalictrum dioicum: Plants survive but seedlings fail to recruit with reduced snow cover. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2022; 109:406-418. [PMID: 35191014 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.1829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE Future reductions in snow cover are expected in temperate climates, likely leading to more soil-freezing events and damage to plant tissues. However, whether and how plants can compensate for this damage may depend on the timing of damage and on plant allocations to seed size and number. We need more information about how seed production, germination, and seedling recruitment might respond to changes in snow cover. METHODS We manipulated snow cover over three seasons in a common garden experiment with four treatments: (1) "control," where snowpack was left unmanipulated throughout the winter season; (2) "late addition," where snowpack was experimentally increased at the end of the winter season in order to delay the onset of spring; (3) "late removal," where snowpack was experimentally reduced at the end of the winter season in order to advance the onset of spring; and (4) "freeze," a consistent removal treatment, where snowpack was experimentally reduced following every substantial snowfall in order to induce freeze-thaw events in the soil. In all treatments, we measured survival, growth, reproduction, and recruitment of a native perennial herb, Thalictrum dioicum. RESULTS Reduced snow cover minimally influenced adult survival. Instead, individuals that experienced reduced snow cover throughout the winter produced more massive seeds, whereas individuals that experienced a single snow removal at the end of the season produced less massive seeds. Seedling recruitment was lower in the removal treatments than in the control, as a result of failure to germinate in the freeze treatment and seedling mortality in the late removal treatment. CONCLUSIONS Both reduced snow cover throughout the winter and a single late snow removal in the spring reduced seedling recruitment, but for different reasons, suggesting that a holistic approach to the life cycle is needed to understand responses to shifting climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Ósvaldsson
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Maddelana K Chesler
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Jean H Burns
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
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5
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Duncan RJ, Andrew ME, Forchhammer MC. Snow mediates climatic impacts on Arctic herbivore populations. Polar Biol 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-021-02871-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
AbstractArctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change; however, the complex relationships between climate and ecosystems make incorporating effects of climate change into population management difficult. This study used structural equation modelling (SEM) and a 24-year multifaceted monitoring data series collected at Zackenberg, North-East Greenland, to untangle the network of climatic and local abiotic and biotic drivers, determining their direct and indirect effects on two herbivores: musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Snow conditions were determined to be the central driver within the system, mediating the effects of climate on herbivore abundance. Under current climate change projections, snow is expected to decrease in the region. Snow had an indirect negative effect on musk ox, as decreased snow depth led to an earlier start to the Arctic willow growing season, shown to increase fecundity and decrease mortality. Musk ox are therefore expected to be more successful under future conditions, within a certain threshold. Snow had both positive and negative effects on lemming, with lemming expected to ultimately be less successful under climate change, as reduction in snow increases their vulnerability to predation. Through their capacity to determine effects of climatic and local drivers within a hierarchy, and the relative strength and direction of these effects, SEMs were demonstrated to have the potential to be valuable in guiding population management.
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6
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Arevalo E, Lassalle G, Tétard S, Maire A, Sauquet E, Lambert P, Paumier A, Villeneuve B, Drouineau H. An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 748:141260. [PMID: 32805565 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Most key life-events of organisms are synchronized by complex interactions of several environmental cues to ensure optimal survival and growth of individuals and their offspring. However, global change is known to affect multiple components of ecosystems and cues at the same time. Therefore, detecting joint trends in covariate time series is a crucial challenge in global change ecology that has rarely been addressed so far. In this context, we designed an innovative combination of kernel density estimations and Mann-Kendall trend tests to detect joint temporal trends in a pair of environmental variables. This methodological framework was tested on >30 years (1976-2019) of water temperature and discharge data for 6 large French rivers (the Garonne, Dordogne, Rhône, Rhine, Loire and Vienne rivers). The implications of such trends in both temperature and discharge for diadromous species key life-cycle processes were then explored by checking if significant bivariate environmental changes occurred during seasons of upstream and downstream migration, and reproductive activities. Results were contrasted between rivers and seasons: many rivers displayed an increase in the number of days with high water temperature and low river discharge, but local discharge regulation measures could have mitigated the trend in discharge. Our findings showed that species migrating or spawning in spring were likely to be strongly impacted by the new environmental conditions in the Garonne, Loire and Rhône rivers, given the marked changes in water temperature and discharge associations detected by our new method. Conditions experienced by fall-running and spawning species have been strongly affected in all the rivers studied. This innovative methodology was implemented in a new R package, ChocR, for application to other environments and ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elorri Arevalo
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France.
| | - Géraldine Lassalle
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Stéphane Tétard
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Anthony Maire
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Eric Sauquet
- INRAE, Unité RiverLy, 5 Rue de la Doua CS20244, 69625 Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | - Patrick Lambert
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Alexis Paumier
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Bertrand Villeneuve
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Hilaire Drouineau
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
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7
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A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 5:17-26. [PMID: 33288870 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.
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8
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Heat accumulation in hollow Arctic flowers: possible microgreenhouse effects in syncalyces of campions (Silene spp. (Caryophyllaceae)) and zygomorphic sympetalous corollas of louseworts (Pedicularis spp. (Orobanchaceae)). Polar Biol 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-020-02772-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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9
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Chen J, Luo Y, Chen Y, Felton AJ, Hopping KA, Wang RW, Niu S, Cheng X, Zhang Y, Cao J, Olesen JE, Andersen MN, Jørgensen U. Plants with lengthened phenophases increase their dominance under warming in an alpine plant community. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 728:138891. [PMID: 32361364 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2020] [Revised: 04/16/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Predicting how shifts in plant phenology affect species dominance remains challenging, because plant phenology and species dominance have been largely investigated independently. Moreover, most phenological research has primarily focused on phenological firsts (leaf-out and first flower dates), leading to a lack of representation of phenological lasts (leaf senescence and last flower) and full phenological periods (growing season length and flower duration). Here, we simultaneously investigated the effects of experimental warming on different phenological events of various species and species dominance in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Warming significantly advanced phenological firsts for most species but had variable effects on phenological lasts. As a result, warming tended to extend species' full phenological periods, although this trend was not significant for all species. Experimental warming reduced community evenness and differentially impacted species dominance. Shifts in full phenological periods, rather than a single shift in phenological firsts or phenological lasts, were associated with changes in species dominance. Species with lengthened full phenological periods under warming increased their dominance. Our results advance the understanding of how altered species-specific phenophases relate to changes in community structure in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ji Chen
- School of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory for Space Bioscience & Biotechnology, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China; State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG), and Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark; Center for Circular Bioeconomy, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark.
| | - Yiqi Luo
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
| | - Yuxin Chen
- College of the Environment & Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
| | - Andrew J Felton
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
| | - Kelly A Hopping
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise, ID 83725, USA.
| | - Rui-Wu Wang
- School of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory for Space Bioscience & Biotechnology, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China.
| | - Shuli Niu
- Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Xiaoli Cheng
- School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
| | - Yuefang Zhang
- Circular Agriculture Research Center, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China
| | - Junji Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG), and Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
| | - Jørgen Eivind Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark; iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, Roskilde 4000, Denmark.
| | | | - Uffe Jørgensen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark; Center for Circular Bioeconomy, Aarhus University, Tjele 8830, Denmark.
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10
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Chisholm C, Becker MS, Pollard WH. The Importance of Incorporating Landscape Change for Predictions of Climate-Induced Plant Phenological Shifts. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2020; 11:759. [PMID: 32670312 PMCID: PMC7329987 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2020.00759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Warming in the high Arctic is occurring at the fastest rate on the planet, raising concerns over how this global change driver will influence plant community composition, the timing of vegetation phenological events, and the wildlife that rely on them. In this region, as much as 50% of near-surface permafrost is composed of thermally sensitive ground ice that when melted produces substantial changes in topography and microbiome conditions. We take advantage of natural variations in permafrost melt to conduct a space-for-time study on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada. We demonstrate that phenological timing can be delayed in thermokarst areas when compared to stable ground, and that this change is a function of shifting species composition in these vegetation communities as well as delayed timing within species. These findings suggest that a warming climate could result in an overall broadening of blooming and leafing windows at the landscape level when these delayed timings are taken into consideration with the projected advance of phenological timings in ice-poor areas. We emphasize that the impacts of geomorphic processes on key phenological drivers are essential for enhancing our understanding of community response to climate warming in the high Arctic, with implications for ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chelsea Chisholm
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Michael S. Becker
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Wayne H. Pollard
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
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11
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Shima JS, Osenberg CW, Alonzo SH, Noonburg EG, Mitterwallner P, Swearer SE. Reproductive phenology across the lunar cycle: parental decisions, offspring responses, and consequences for reef fish. Ecology 2020; 101:e03086. [PMID: 32320474 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2019] [Revised: 03/19/2020] [Accepted: 04/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Most organisms reproduce in a dynamic environment, and life-history theory predicts that this can favor the evolution of strategies that capitalize on good times and avoid bad times. When offspring experience these environmental changes, fitness can depend strongly upon environmental conditions at birth and at later life stages. Consequently, fitness will be influenced by the reproductive decisions of parents (i.e., birth date effects) and developmental decisions (e.g., adaptive plasticity) of their offspring. We explored the consequences of these decisions using a highly iteroparous coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) and in a system where both parental and offspring environments vary with the lunar cycle. We tested the hypotheses that (1) reproductive patterns and offspring survival vary across the lunar cycle and (2) offspring exhibit adaptive plasticity in development time. We evaluated temporal variation in egg production from February to June 2017, and corresponding larval developmental histories (inferred from otolith microstructure) of successful settlers and surviving juveniles that were spawned during that same period. We documented lunar-cyclic variation in egg production (most eggs were spawned at the new moon). This pattern was at odds with the distribution of birth dates of settlers and surviving juveniles-most individuals that successfully survived to settlement and older stages were born during the full moon. Consequently, the probability of survival across the larval stage was greatest for offspring born close to the full moon, when egg production was at its lowest. Offspring also exhibited plasticity in developmental duration, adjusting their age at settlement to settle during darker portions of the lunar cycle than expected given their birth date. Offspring born near the new moon tended to be older and larger at settlement, and these traits conveyed a strong fitness advantage (i.e., a carryover effect) through to adulthood. We speculate that these effects (1) are shaped by a dynamic landscape of risk and reward determined by moonlight, which differentially influences adults and offspring, and (2) can explain the evolution of extreme iteroparity in sixbars.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey S Shima
- School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand
| | - Craig W Osenberg
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, 140 East Green Street, Athens, Georgia, 30602, USA
| | - Suzanne H Alonzo
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Erik G Noonburg
- Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Davie, Florida, 33314, USA
| | - Pauline Mitterwallner
- School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand
| | - Stephen E Swearer
- School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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12
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Bjorkman AD, García Criado M, Myers-Smith IH, Ravolainen V, Jónsdóttir IS, Westergaard KB, Lawler JP, Aronsson M, Bennett B, Gardfjell H, Heiðmarsson S, Stewart L, Normand S. Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring. AMBIO 2020; 49:678-692. [PMID: 30929249 PMCID: PMC6989703 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01161-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2018] [Revised: 02/04/2019] [Accepted: 02/14/2019] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne D. Bjorkman
- Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany
- Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | | | | | | | | | - James P. Lawler
- Inventory and Monitoring Program, U.S. National Park Service, Anchorage, Alaska USA
| | - Mora Aronsson
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Bruce Bennett
- Yukon Conservation Data Centre, Whitehorse, Yukon Canada
| | - Hans Gardfjell
- Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Starri Heiðmarsson
- Akureyri Division, Icelandic Institute of Natural History, Borgir vid Nordurslod, 600 Akureyri, Iceland
| | - Laerke Stewart
- Arctic Ecosystem Ecology, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Signe Normand
- Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Arctic Research Center, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114-116, 8000 Århus, Denmark
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamic in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114-116, 8000 Århus, Denmark
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13
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Block S, Alexander JM, Levine JM. Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change. OIKOS 2020; 129:184-193. [PMID: 32001946 DOI: 10.1111/oik.06667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastián Block
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jake M Alexander
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan M Levine
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544-1003, USA
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14
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Conservation Genomics in a Changing Arctic. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 35:149-162. [PMID: 31699414 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.09.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2019] [Revised: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 09/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.
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15
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Kwon E, Weiser EL, Lanctot RB, Brown SC, Gates HR, Gilchrist G, Kendall SJ, Lank DB, Liebezeit JR, McKinnon L, Nol E, Payer DC, Rausch J, Rinella DJ, Saalfeld ST, Senner NR, Smith PA, Ward D, Wisseman RW, Sandercock BK. Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Eunbi Kwon
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506 USA
| | - Emily L. Weiser
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506 USA
| | - Richard B. Lanctot
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
| | - Stephen C. Brown
- Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Manomet Massachusetts 02345 USA
| | - Heather R. Gates
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
- Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Manomet Massachusetts 02345 USA
| | - Grant Gilchrist
- Environment and Climate Change Canada National Wildlife Research Centre Carleton University Ottawa Ontario K1A 0H3 Canada
| | - Steve J. Kendall
- Arctic National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Alaska 99701 USA
| | - David B. Lank
- Department of Biological Sciences Simon Fraser University Burnaby British Columbia V3H 3S6 Canada
| | | | - Laura McKinnon
- Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - Erica Nol
- Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - David C. Payer
- Arctic National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Alaska 99701 USA
| | - Jennie Rausch
- Canadian Wildlife Service Yellowknife Northwest Territories X1A 2P7 Canada
| | - Daniel J. Rinella
- Alaska Center for Conservation Science and Department of Biological Sciences University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska 99508 USA
| | - Sarah T. Saalfeld
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
| | - Nathan R. Senner
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca New York 14850 USA
| | - Paul A. Smith
- Environment and Climate Change Canada Wildlife Research Division Ottawa Ontario K1A 0H3 Canada
| | - David Ward
- US Geological Survey Anchorage Alaska 99508 USA
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16
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Assmann JJ, Myers-Smith IH, Phillimore AB, Bjorkman AD, Ennos RE, Prevéy JS, Henry GHR, Schmidt NM, Hollister RD. Local snow melt and temperature-but not regional sea ice-explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:2258-2274. [PMID: 30963662 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2018] [Revised: 01/18/2019] [Accepted: 03/03/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long-term time series of spring leaf-out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Anne D Bjorkman
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt, Germany
| | | | - Janet S Prevéy
- Pacific Northwest Research Station, Department of Agriculture - Forest Service, Olympia, Washington
| | | | - Niels M Schmidt
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
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17
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Myers‐Smith IH, Grabowski MM, Thomas HJD, Angers‐Blondin S, Daskalova GN, Bjorkman AD, Cunliffe AM, Assmann JJ, Boyle JS, McLeod E, McLeod S, Joe R, Lennie P, Arey D, Gordon RR, Eckert CD. Eighteen years of ecological monitoring reveals multiple lines of evidence for tundra vegetation change. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Isla H. Myers‐Smith
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
| | | | - Haydn J. D. Thomas
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Anne D. Bjorkman
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
- Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Department of Bioscience Aarhus University DK‐8000 Aarhus Denmark
| | - Andrew M. Cunliffe
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
| | - Jakob J. Assmann
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
| | - Joseph S. Boyle
- School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FF United Kingdom
| | - Edward McLeod
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Samuel McLeod
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Ricky Joe
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Paden Lennie
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Deon Arey
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Richard R. Gordon
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Inuvik Office Yukon Territorial Government Inuvik NWT X0E 0T0 Canada
| | - Cameron D. Eckert
- Department of Environment Yukon Parks–Whitehorse Office Yukon Territorial Government Whitehorse Yukon Territory Y1A 2C6 Canada
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18
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Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities. Nat Ecol Evol 2018; 3:45-52. [PMID: 30532048 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-018-0745-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2018] [Accepted: 11/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.
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19
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Park IW, Mazer SJ. Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:5972-5984. [PMID: 30218548 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive. This study harnesses 894,392 digital herbarium records and 1,959 in situ observations to produce the first assessment of the effects of a large number (25) of climate parameters on the flowering time of a very large number (2,468) of angiosperm taxa throughout North America. In addition, we compare the predictive capacity of phenological models constructed from the collection dates of herbarium specimens vs. repeated in situ observations of individual plants using a regression approach-elastic net regularization-that has not previously been used in phenological modeling, but exhibits several advantages over ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. When herbarium-derived data and in situ phenological observations were used to predict flowering onset, the multivariate models based on each of these data sources had similar predictive capacity (R2 = 0.27). Further, apart from mean maximum temperature (TMAX), the two best predictors of flowering time have not commonly been included in phenological models: the number of frost-free days (NFFD) and the quantity of precipitation as snow (PAS) in the seasons preceding flowering. By vetting these models across an unprecedented number of taxa, this work demonstrates a new approach to phenological modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac W Park
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California
| | - Susan J Mazer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California
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20
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Hoffmann AA, Rymer PD, Byrne M, Ruthrof KX, Whinam J, McGeoch M, Bergstrom DM, Guerin GR, Sparrow B, Joseph L, Hill SJ, Andrew NR, Camac J, Bell N, Riegler M, Gardner JL, Williams SE. Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples. AUSTRAL ECOL 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ary A. Hoffmann
- Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group School of BioSciences Bio21 Institute The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia
| | - Paul D. Rymer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment University of Western Sydney Penrith New South Wales
| | - Margaret Byrne
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation, and Attractions Science Division Bentley Delivery Centre Bentley Western Australia Australia
| | - Katinka X. Ruthrof
- School of Veterinary and Life Sciences Murdoch University Murdoch Western Australia Australia
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Kings Park Science Perth Western Australia Australia
| | - Jennie Whinam
- Geography and Spatial Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tasmania Australia
| | - Melodie McGeoch
- School of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | | | - Greg R. Guerin
- TERN School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia Australia
| | - Ben Sparrow
- TERN School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia Australia
| | - Leo Joseph
- Australian National Wildlife Collection National Research Collections Australia CSIRO Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
| | - Sarah J. Hill
- Insect Ecology Lab Centre of Excellence for Behavioural and Physiological Ecology University of New England Armidale New South Wales Australia
| | - Nigel R. Andrew
- Insect Ecology Lab Centre of Excellence for Behavioural and Physiological Ecology University of New England Armidale New South Wales Australia
| | - James Camac
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Nicholas Bell
- Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group School of BioSciences Bio21 Institute The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia
| | - Markus Riegler
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment University of Western Sydney Penrith New South Wales
| | - Janet L. Gardner
- Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
| | - Stephen E. Williams
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science College of Science & Engineering James Cook University Townsville Queensland Australia
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21
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Park DS, Breckheimer I, Williams AC, Law E, Ellison AM, Davis CC. Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 374:20170394. [PMID: 30455212 PMCID: PMC6282088 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel S Park
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Ian Breckheimer
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Alex C Williams
- David R. Cheriton School of Computer Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1
| | - Edith Law
- David R. Cheriton School of Computer Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1
| | - Aaron M Ellison
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA 01366, USA
| | - Charles C Davis
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
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22
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Huang J, Hao H. Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:1507-1520. [PMID: 29752540 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1552-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2017] [Revised: 04/09/2018] [Accepted: 04/18/2018] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of Tmean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Huang
- China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Desert and Meteorology, Urumqi, 830002, China.
- Central Asian Research Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Urumqi, 830002, China.
| | - HongFei Hao
- Bachu Meteorological Administration, Bachu, 843800, China
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23
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Beamish AL, Coops NC, Hermosilla T, Chabrillat S, Heim B. Monitoring pigment-driven vegetation changes in a low-Arctic tundra ecosystem using digital cameras. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Alison L. Beamish
- Alfred Wegener Institute; Periglacial Research; Telegrafenberg A45 14473 Potsdam Germany
| | - Nicholas C. Coops
- Integrated Remote Sensing Studio (IRSS); Faculty of Forestry; University of British Columbia; 2424 Main Mall Vancouver British Columbia V6T1Z4 Canada
| | - Txomin Hermosilla
- Integrated Remote Sensing Studio (IRSS); Faculty of Forestry; University of British Columbia; 2424 Main Mall Vancouver British Columbia V6T1Z4 Canada
| | - Sabine Chabrillat
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (GFZ); German Research Centre for Geosciences; Telegrafenberg A17 14473 Potsdam Germany
| | - Birgit Heim
- Alfred Wegener Institute; Periglacial Research; Telegrafenberg A45 14473 Potsdam Germany
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24
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de Keyzer CW, Rafferty NE, Inouye DW, Thomson JD. Confounding effects of spatial variation on shifts in phenology. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:1783-1791. [PMID: 27550575 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2016] [Accepted: 08/04/2016] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in the timing of life history events have become an important source of information about how organisms are responding to climate change. Phenological data have generally been treated as purely temporal, with scant attention to the inherent spatial aspects of such data. However, phenological data are tied to a specific location, and considerations of sampling design, both over space and through time, can critically affect the patterns that emerge. Focusing on flowering phenology, we describe how purely spatial shifts, such as adding new study plots, or the colonization of a study plot by a new species, can masquerade as temporal shifts. Such shifts can look like responses to climate change but are not. Furthermore, the same aggregate phenological curves can be composed of individuals with either very different or very similar phenologies. We conclude with a set of recommendations to avoid ambiguities arising from the spatiotemporal duality of phenological data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte W de Keyzer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 3B2
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
| | - Nicole E Rafferty
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 3B2
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
| | - David W Inouye
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - James D Thomson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 3B2
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
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25
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Tiusanen M, Hebert PDN, Schmidt NM, Roslin T. One fly to rule them all-muscid flies are the key pollinators in the Arctic. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:20161271. [PMID: 27683367 PMCID: PMC5046896 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2016] [Accepted: 09/05/2016] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Global change is causing drastic changes in the pollinator communities of the Arctic. While arctic flowers are visited by a wide range of insects, flies in family Muscidae have been proposed as a pollinator group of particular importance. To understand the functional outcome of current changes in pollinator community composition, we examined the role of muscids in the pollination of a key plant species, the mountain avens (Dryas). We monitored the seed set of Dryas across 15 sites at Zackenberg, northeast Greenland, and used sticky flower mimics and DNA barcoding to describe the flower-visiting community at each site. To evaluate the consequences of shifts in pollinator phenology under climate change, we compared the flower visitors between the early and the late season. Our approach revealed a diverse community of insects visiting Dryas, including two-thirds of all insect species known from the area. Even against this diverse background, the abundance of muscid flies emerged as a key predictor for seed set in Dryas, whereas overall insect abundance and species richness had little or no effect. With muscid flies as the main drivers of the pollinating function in the High Arctic, a recently observed decline in their abundances offers cause for concern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikko Tiusanen
- Spatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Paul D N Hebert
- Centre for Biodiversity Genomics, Biodiversity Institute of Ontario, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1
| | - Niels Martin Schmidt
- Arctic Research Centre, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Tomas Roslin
- Spatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
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26
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Roland J, Matter SF. Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpine
Parnassius smintheus
butterflies. ECOL MONOGR 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jens Roland
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada T6G 2E9
| | - Stephen F. Matter
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada T6G 2E9
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Cincinnati Cincinnati Ohio 45221‐0006 USA
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27
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Analysis of trophic interactions reveals highly plastic response to climate change in a tri-trophic High-Arctic ecosystem. Polar Biol 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-015-1872-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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28
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Barrett RTS, Hollister RD, Oberbauer SF, Tweedie CE. Arctic plant responses to changing abiotic factors in northern Alaska. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2015; 102:2020-31. [PMID: 26672012 DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1400535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2014] [Accepted: 11/05/2015] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE OF THE STUDY Understanding the relationship between plants and changing abiotic factors is necessary to document and anticipate the impacts of climate change. METHODS We used data from long-term research sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, to investigate trends in abiotic factors (snow melt and freeze-up dates, air and soil temperature, thaw depth, and soil moisture) and their relationships with plant traits (inflorescence height, leaf length, reproductive effort, and reproductive phenology) over time. KEY RESULTS Several abiotic factors, including increasing air and soil temperatures, earlier snowmelt, delayed freeze-up, drier soils, and increasing thaw depths, showed nonsignificant tendencies over time that were consistent with the regional warming pattern observed in the Barrow area. Over the same period, plants showed consistent, although typically nonsignificant tendencies toward increasing inflorescence heights and reproductive efforts. Air and soil temperatures, measured as degree days, were consistently correlated with plant growth and reproductive effort. Reproductive effort was best predicted using abiotic conditions from the previous year. We also found that varying the base temperature used to calculate degree days changed the number of significant relationships between temperature and the trait: in general, reproductive phenologies in colder sites were better predicted using lower base temperatures, but the opposite held for those in warmer sites. CONCLUSIONS Plant response to changing abiotic factors is complex and varies by species, site, and trait; however, for six plant species, we have strong evidence that climate change will cause significant shifts in their growth and reproductive effort as the region continues to warm.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert T S Barrett
- Biology Department, Grand Valley State University, 1 Campus Drive, Allendale, Michigan 49401 USA West Michigan Academy of Environmental Science, 4463 Leonard Street, Walker, Michigan 49534 USA
| | - Robert D Hollister
- Biology Department, Grand Valley State University, 1 Campus Drive, Allendale, Michigan 49401 USA
| | - Steven F Oberbauer
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, Florida 33199 USA
| | - Craig E Tweedie
- Department of Biology, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79968 USA
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Complexity and insidiousness of cryptic function loss mechanisms. Trends Ecol Evol 2015; 30:371-2. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2015.04.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2015] [Revised: 04/22/2015] [Accepted: 04/24/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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