Dispersal synchronizes giant kelp forests

Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Loss, resilience and recovery of kelp forests in a region of rapid ocean warming

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Changes in kelp abundances on regional scales have been highly variable over the past half-century owing to strong effects of local and regional drivers. Here, we assess patterns and dominant environmental variables causing spatial and interspecific variability in kelp persistence and resilience to change in Nova Scotia over the past 40 years.

METHODS

We conducted a survey of macrophyte abundance at 251 sites spanning the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia from 2019 to 2022. We use this dataset to describe spatial variability in kelp species abundances, compare species occurrences to surveys conducted in 1982 and assess changes in kelp abundance over the past 22 years. We then relate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance and resilience to environmental metrics.

KEY RESULTS

Our results show losses of sea urchins and the cold-tolerant kelp species Alaria esculenta, Saccorhiza dermatodea and Agarum clathratum in Nova Scotia since 1982 in favour of the more warm-tolerant kelps Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata. Kelp abundances have increased slightly since 2000, and Saccharina latissima and L. digitata are widely abundant in the region today. The highest kelp cover occurs on wave-exposed shores and at sites where temperatures have remained below thresholds for growth (21 °C) and mortality (23 °C). Moreover, kelp has recovered from turf dominance following losses at some sites during a warm period from 2010 to 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that dramatic changes in kelp community composition and a loss of sea urchin herbivory as a dominant driver of change in the system have occurred in Nova Scotia over the past 40 years. However, a broad-scale shift to turf-dominance has not occurred, as predicted, and our results suggest that resilience and persistence are still a feature of kelp forests in the region despite rapid warming over the past several decades.

Disturbance and nutrients synchronise kelp forests across scales through interacting Moran effects

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Automated satellite remote sensing of giant kelp at the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)

Giant kelp populations that support productive and diverse coastal ecosystems at temperate and subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres are vulnerable to changing climate conditions as well as direct human impacts. Observations of giant kelp forests are spatially and temporally uneven, with disproportionate coverage in the northern hemisphere, despite the size and comparable density of southern hemisphere kelp forests. Satellite imagery enables the mapping of existing and historical giant kelp populations in understudied regions, but automating the detection of giant kelp using satellite imagery requires approaches that are robust to the optical complexity of the shallow, nearshore environment. We present and compare two approaches for automating the detection of giant kelp in satellite datasets: one based on crowd sourcing of satellite imagery classifications and another based on a decision tree paired with a spectral unmixing algorithm (automated using Google Earth Engine). Both approaches are applied to satellite imagery (Landsat) of the Falkland Islands or Islas Malvinas (FLK), an archipelago in the southern Atlantic Ocean that supports expansive giant kelp ecosystems. The performance of each method is evaluated by comparing the automated classifications with a subset of expert-annotated imagery (8 images spanning the majority of our continuous timeseries, cumulatively covering over 2,700 km of coastline, and including all relevant sensors). Using the remote sensing approaches evaluated herein, we present the first continuous timeseries of giant kelp observations in the FLK region using Landsat imagery spanning over three decades. We do not detect evidence of long-term change in the FLK region, although we observe a recent decline in total canopy area from 2017-2021. Using a nitrate model based on nearby ocean state measurements obtained from ships and incorporating satellite sea surface temperature products, we find that the area of giant kelp forests in the FLK region is positively correlated with the nitrate content observed during the prior year. Our results indicate that giant kelp classifications using citizen science are approximately consistent with classifications based on a state-of-the-art automated spectral approach. Despite differences in accuracy and sensitivity, both approaches find high interannual variability that impedes the detection of potential long-term changes in giant kelp canopy area, although recent canopy area declines are notable and should continue to be monitored carefully.

Remote sensing: generation of long-term kelp bed data sets for evaluation of impacts of climatic variation

A critical tool in assessing ecosystem change is the analysis of long-term data sets, yet such information is generally sparse and often unavailable for many habitats. Kelp forests are an example of rapidly changing ecosystems that are in most cases data poor. Because kelp forests are highly dynamic and have high intrinsic interannual variability, understanding how regional-scale drivers are driving kelp populations-and particularly how kelp populations are responding to climate change-requires long-term data sets. However, much of the work on kelp responses to climate change has focused on just a few, relatively long-lived, perennial, canopy-forming species. To understand how kelp populations with different life history traits are responding to climate-related variability, we leverage 35 yr of Landsat satellite imagery to track the population size of an annual, ruderal kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana, across Oregon. We found high levels of interannual variability in Nereocystis canopy area and varying population trajectories over the last 35 yr. Surprisingly, Oregon Nereocystis population sizes were unresponsive to a 2014 marine heat wave accompanied by increases in urchin densities that decimated northern California Nereocystis populations. Some Oregon Nereocystis populations have even increased in area relative to pre-2014 levels. Analysis of environmental drivers found that Nereocystis population size was negatively correlated with estimated nitrate levels and positively correlated with winter wave height. This pattern is the inverse of the predicted relationship based on extensive prior work on the perennial kelp Macrocystis pyrifera and may be related to the annual life cycle of Nereocystis. This article demonstrates (1) the value of novel remote sensing tools to create long-term data sets that may challenge our understanding of nearshore marine species and (2) the need to incorporate life history traits into our theory of how climate change will shape the ocean of the future.

A High-Resolution Global Map of Giant Kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) Forests and Intertidal Green Algae (Ulvophyceae) with Sentinel-2 Imagery

Giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is the most widely distributed kelp species on the planet, constituting one of the richest and most productive ecosystems on Earth, but detailed information on its distribution is entirely missing in some marine ecoregions, especially in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present an algorithm based on a series of filter thresholds to detect giant kelp employing Sentinel-2 imagery. Given the overlap between the reflectances of giant kelp and intertidal green algae (Ulvophyceae), the latter are also detected on shallow rocky intertidal areas. The kelp filter algorithm was applied separately to vegetation indices, the Floating Algae Index (FAI), the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and a novel formula (the Kelp Difference, KD). Training data from previously surveyed kelp forests and other coastal and ocean features were used to identify reflectance threshold values. This procedure was validated with independent field data collected with UAV imagery at a high spatial resolution and point-georeferenced sites at a low spatial resolution. When comparing UAV with Sentinel data (high-resolution validation), an average overall accuracy ≥ 0.88 and Cohen’s kappa ≥ 0.64 coefficients were found in all three indices for canopies reaching the surface with extensions greater than 1 hectare, with the KD showing the highest average kappa score (0.66). Measurements between previously surveyed georeferenced points and remotely-sensed kelp grid cells (low-resolution validation) showed that 66% of the georeferenced points had grid cells indicating kelp presence within a linear distance of 300 m. We employed the KD in our kelp filter algorithm to estimate the global extent of giant kelp and intertidal green algae per marine ecoregion and province, producing a high-resolution global map of giant kelp and intertidal green algae, powered by Google Earth Engine.

Biological and Physical Effects of Brine Discharge from the Carlsbad Desalination Plant and Implications for Future Desalination Plant Constructions

Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is increasingly used as a technology for addressing shortages of freshwater supply and desalination plants are in operation or being planned world-wide and specifically in California, USA. However, the effects of continuous discharge of high-salinity brine into coastal environments are ill-constrained and in California are an issue of public debate. We collected in situ measurements of water chemistry and biological indicators in coastal waters (up to ~2 km from shore) before and after the newly constructed Carlsbad Desalination Plant (Carlsbad, CA, USA) began operations. A bottom water salinity anomaly indicates that the spatial footprint of the brine discharge plume extended about 600 m offshore with salinity up to 2.7 units above ambient (33.2). This exceeds the maximum salinity permitted for this location based on the California Ocean Plan (2015 Amendment to Water Quality Control Plan). However, no significant changes in the assessed biological indicators (benthic macrofauna, BOPA-index, brittle-star survival and growth) were observed at the discharge site. A model of mean ocean wave potential was used as an indicator of coastal mixing at Carlsbad Beach and at other locations in southern and central CA where desalination facilities are proposed. Our results indicated that to minimize environmental impacts discharge should target waters where a long history of anthropogenic activity has already compromised the natural setting. To ensure adequate mixing of the discharge brine desalination plants should be constructed at high-energy sites with sandy substrates, and discharge through diffusor systems.

Marine biodiversity at the end of the world: Cape Horn and Diego Ramírez islands

The vast and complex coast of the Magellan Region of extreme southern Chile possesses a diversity of habitats including fjords, deep channels, and extensive kelp forests, with a unique mix of temperate and sub-Antarctic species. The Cape Horn and Diego Ramírez archipelagos are the most southerly locations in the Americas, with the southernmost kelp forests, and some of the least explored places on earth. The giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera plays a key role in structuring the ecological communities of the entire region, with the large brown seaweed Lessonia spp. forming dense understories. Kelp densities were highest around Cape Horn, followed by Diego Ramírez, and lowest within the fjord region of Francisco Coloane Marine Park (mean canopy densities of 2.51 kg m-2, 2.29 kg m-2, and 2.14 kg m-2, respectively). There were clear differences in marine communities among these sub-regions, with the lowest diversity in the fjords. We observed 18 species of nearshore fishes, with average species richness nearly 50% higher at Diego Ramírez compared with Cape Horn and Francisco Coloane. The number of individual fishes was nearly 10 times higher at Diego Ramírez and 4 times higher at Cape Horn compared with the fjords. Dropcam surveys of mesophotic depths (53-105 m) identified 30 taxa from 25 families, 15 classes, and 7 phyla. While much of these deeper habitats consisted of soft sediment and cobble, in rocky habitats, echinoderms, mollusks, bryozoans, and sponges were common. The southern hagfish (Myxine australis) was the most frequently encountered of the deep-sea fishes (50% of deployments), and while the Fueguian sprat (Sprattus fuegensis) was the most abundant fish species, its distribution was patchy. The Cape Horn and Diego Ramírez archipelagos represent some of the last intact sub-Antarctic ecosystems remaining and a recently declared large protected area will help ensure the health of this unique region.

Interactive effects of predator and prey harvest on ecological resilience of rocky reefs

A major goal of ecosystem-based fisheries management is to prevent fishery-induced shifts in community states. This requires an understanding of ecological resilience: the ability of an ecosystem to return to the same state following a perturbation, which can strongly depend on species interactions across trophic levels. We use a structured model of a temperate rocky reef to explore how multi-trophic level fisheries impact ecological resilience. Increasing fishing mortality of prey (urchins) has a minor effect on equilibrium biomass of kelp, urchins, and spiny lobster predators, but increases resilience by reducing the range of predator harvest rates at which alternative stable states are possible. Size-structured predation on urchins acts as the feedback maintaining each state. Our results demonstrate that the resilience of ecosystems strongly depends on the interactive effects of predator and prey harvest in multi-trophic level fisheries, which are common in marine ecosystems but are unaccounted for by traditional management.

Fluctuations in population fecundity drive variation in demographic connectivity and metapopulation dynamics

Demographic connectivity is vital to sustaining metapopulations yet often changes dramatically through time due to variation in the production and dispersal of offspring. However, the relative importance of variation in fecundity and dispersal in determining the connectivity and dynamics of metapopulations is poorly understood due to the paucity of comprehensive spatio-temporal data on these processes for most species. We quantified connectivity in metapopulations of a marine foundation species (giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera) across 11 years and approximately 900 km of coastline by estimating population fecundity with satellite imagery and propagule dispersal using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. By varying the temporal complexity of different connectivity measures and comparing their ability to explain observed extinction-colonization dynamics, we discovered that fluctuations in population fecundity, rather than fluctuations in dispersal, are the dominant driver of variation in connectivity and contribute substantially to metapopulation recovery and persistence. Thus, for species with high variability in reproductive output and modest variability in dispersal (most plants, many animals), connectivity measures ignoring fluctuations in fecundity may overestimate connectivity and likelihoods of persistence, limiting their value for understanding and conserving metapopulations. However, we demonstrate how connectivity measures can be simplified while retaining utility, validating a practical solution for data-limited systems.