Lesser Prairie-chicken incubation behavior and nest success most influenced by nest vegetation structure

Incubation breaks are necessary for any nesting bird but can increase the mortality risk of the nest or attending parent. How intrinsic and extrinsic variables affect nest attentiveness-the proportion of time a female is on nest during incubation- and subsequent survival of the nest remains unclear for uniparental species. We related female nest attentiveness to nest survival and tested the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on nest attentiveness by female Lesser Prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) using GPS locations of 87 females at 109 nest sites in 3 study areas in Kansas during 2013-2015. Daily nest survival increased by 39% when nest attentiveness increased from 21% to 98%. Female Lesser Prairie-chickens were 18% less attentive as body mass increased from 600 to 920 g. Daily precipitation and temperature, controlled for days into the incubation period, had interactive effects on nest attentiveness with nest attentiveness lowest on cool, wet days and increasing as temperature increased, regardless of precipitation (41% attentiveness at 16°C and 79 mm of precipitation to 90% attentiveness at 37°C and 41 mm of precipitation). Nest attentiveness increased by 11% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 78% when visual obstruction was at 1 and 2 decimeters (dm) and increased 9% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 83% when visual obstruction was at its maximum (3 dm). Our findings reveal the critical importance of nest attentiveness and incubation behavior, not only in relation to demography, but within the context of changing environmental conditions. As warmer temperatures and extreme precipitation events become more common and change the growth rates of vegetation, species like the Lesser Prairie-chicken that are ground-nesting, rely on vegetation cover, and exhibit uniparental care could experience negative demographic consequences.

Woody encroachment of grasslands: Near-surface thermal implications assessed through the lens of an astronomical event

Temperature has long been understood as a fundamental condition that influences ecological patterns and processes. Heterogeneity in landscapes that is structured by ultimate (climate) and proximate (vegetation, topography, disturbance events, and land use) forces serve to shape thermal patterns across multiple spatio-temporal scales. Thermal landscapes of grasslands are likely shifting as woody encroachment fragments these ecosystems and studies quantifying thermal fragmentation in grassland systems resulting from woody encroachment are lacking. We utilized the August 21st, 2017, solar eclipse to mimic a rapid sunrise/sunset event across a landscape characterized as a grassland to experimentally manipulate levels of solar radiation in the system. We then quantified changes in near-surface temperatures resulting from changes in solar radiation levels during the eclipse. Temperatures were monitored across three grassland pastures in central Oklahoma that were characterized by different densities (low, medium, and high) of Juniperus virginiana to understand the impact of woody encroachment on diurnal temperature patterns and thermal heterogeneity in a grassland's thermal landscape. The largest temperature range across sites that occurred during the eclipse was in the mixed grass vegetation. Similarly, the largest change in thermal heterogeneity occurred in the grassland with the lowest amount of woody encroachment. Thermal heterogeneity was lowest in the highly encroached grassland, which also experienced the lowest overall change in thermal heterogeneity during the eclipse. Time series models suggested that solar radiation was the most influential factor in predicting changes in thermal heterogeneity as opposed to ambient temperature alone. These results suggest that highly encroached grasslands may experience lower diurnal variability of temperatures at the cost of a decrease in the overall thermal heterogeneity of that landscape. It appears that fine-scale spatio-temporal thermal variation is largely driven by solar radiation, which can be influenced by vegetation heterogeneity inherent within a landscape.

Fine-scale habitat selection limits trade-offs between foraging and temperature in a grassland bird

Many species are frequently faced with the decision about how to balance the use of thermal refuge against access to food resources. We evaluated the habitat use of female greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) to assess the potential for trade-offs between thermal conditions and food resources during the habitat selection process. Our objectives were to 1) compare near-ground temperatures, invertebrate availability, and vegetation characteristics at sites used by greater prairie chickens to conditions at random landscape locations in various time since fire patches and 2) assess changes in conditions at used sites throughout the day to determine if selection for resources changes relative to ambient conditions, resulting in trade-offs between foraging sites and thermal refuge. We found that greater prairie chickens primarily used patches 0–12 months postfire that had relatively high abundances and biomasses of invertebrates compared to other time since fire patches. Greater prairie chickens further modified their selection at relatively fine spatial scales within these food-rich patches to select for areas with cooler temperatures during the hottest part of the day. The use of thermal refuge did not appear to influence the access to food resources as invertebrate abundance and biomass at used sites were consistent throughout the day. Our results show that food resources and thermal cover influences habitat selection for greater prairie chickens, but there was little evidence for trade-offs during the habitat selection process. Consideration of spatial and temporal scales is critical for evaluating trade-offs in habitat selection for animals and this research provides insights into the decision-making process by prairie chickens.

Role of the thermal environment in scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) nest site selection and survival

Temperature is increasingly recognized as an important component of wildlife habitat. Temperature is particularly important for avian nest sites, where extreme temperatures can influence adult behavior, embryonic development, and survival. For species inhabiting arid and semiarid climates, such as the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata), frequent exposure to extreme temperatures may increase the importance of the nest microclimate. Limited data suggest that scaled quail respond to temperature when selecting nest sites, and they are also known to respond to the presence of surface water and shrub cover on the landscape, two resources which may mitigate thermal stress. To better understand the role of temperature in nest site selection and survival, and to evaluate how other landscape resources may benefit nesting quail, we investigated nest site characteristics of scaled quail in southeastern New Mexico, USA. During the breeding seasons of 2018 and 2019 we located nests, monitored nest fate, and recorded thermal and vegetation characteristics at three spatial scales: the nest bowl, the nest microsite (area within 10 m of the nest bowl), and the landscape. We found that nest bowls moderated temperature relative to both the surrounding microsite and the broader landscape, remaining almost 5 °C cooler on average than the surrounding microsite at mid-day. Nest bowls also had taller, greater cover of vegetation compared to both the surrounding microsites and the landscape. Despite apparent selection for cooler temperatures and taller vegetation, these characteristics demonstrated a weak relationship with nest survival. Rather, nest survival was positively influenced by proximity to surface water and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), with survival decreasing with increasing distance from these features. Although the mechanism for this relationship is unclear, our results support the importance of temperature for nest site selection of ground-nesting birds in semiarid landscapes, and suggest further exploration of landscape-level sources of thermal mitigation.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

The effects of fire on the thermal environment of sagebrush communities

Thermal heterogeneity provides options for organisms during extreme temperatures that can contribute to their fitness. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities exhibit vegetation heterogeneity that creates thermal variation at fine spatial scales. However, fire can change vegetation and thereby variation within the thermal environment of sagebrush communities. To describe spatial and temporal thermal variation of sagebrush communities following wildfire, we measured black bulb temperature (T_bb) at 144 random points dispersed within unburned and burned communities, for 24-h at each random point. We observed a wide thermal gradient in unburned (-7.3° to 63.3 °C) and burned (-4.6° to 64.8 °C) sagebrush communities. Moreover, unburned and burned sagebrush communities displayed high thermal heterogeneity relative to ambient temperature (T_air). Notably, T_bb varied by 47 °C in both unburned and burned communities when T_air was 20 °C. However, fire greatly reduced the buffering capacity and thermal refuge of Wyoming big sagebrush (A. tridentata wyomingensis) communities during low and high T_air. Furthermore, fire increased T_bb in Wyoming big sagebrush and mountain big sagebrush (A. t. vaseyana) during the mid-day hours. These results demonstrate how fire changes the thermal environment of big sagebrush communities and the importance of shrub structure which can provide thermal refuge for organisms in burned communities during extreme low and high T_air.

The potential importance of unburned islands as refugia for the persistence of wildlife species in fire-prone ecosystems

The persistence of wildlife species in fire-prone ecosystems is under increasing pressure from global change, including alterations in fire regimes caused by climate change. However, unburned islands might act to mitigate negative effects of fire on wildlife populations by providing habitat in which species can survive and recolonize burned areas. Nevertheless, the characteristics of unburned islands and their role as potential refugia for the postfire population dynamics of wildlife species remain poorly understood.We used a newly developed unburned island database of the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014 to assess the postfire response of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a large gallinaceous bird inhabiting the sagebrush ecosystems of North America, in which wildfires are common. Specifically, we tested whether prefire and postfire male attendance trends at mating locations (leks) differed between burned and unburned areas, and to what extent postfire habitat composition at multiple scales could explain such trends.Using time-series of male counts at leks together with spatially explicit fire history information, we modeled whether male attendance was negatively affected by fire events. Results revealed that burned leks often exhibit sustained decline in male attendance, whereas leks within unburned islands or >1.5 km away from fire perimeters tend to show stable or increasing trends.Analyses of postfire habitat composition further revealed that sagebrush vegetation height within 0.8 km around leks, as well elevation within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km around leks, had a positive effect on male attendance trends. Moreover, the proportion of the landscape with cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) cover >8% had negative effects on male attendance trends within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km of leks, respectively. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that maintaining areas of unburned vegetation within and outside fire perimeters may be crucial for sustaining sage-grouse populations following wildfire. The role of unburned islands as fire refugia requires more attention in wildlife management and conservation planning because their creation, protection, and maintenance may positively affect wildlife population dynamics in fire-prone ecosystems.

Forecasting the response to global warming in a heat-sensitive species

Avoiding hyperthermia entails considerable metabolic costs for endotherms. Such costs increase in warm conditions, when endotherms may trade food intake for cooler areas to avoid heat stress and maximize their energy balance. The need to reduce heat stress may involve the adoption of tactics affecting space use and foraging behaviour, which are important to understand and predict the effects of climate change and inform conservation. We used resource selection models to examine the behavioural response to heat stress in the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a cold-adapted endotherm particularly prone to overheating. Ibex avoided heat stress by selecting the space based on the maximum daily temperature rather than moving hourly to ‘surf the heat wave’, which minimised movement costs but prevented optimal foraging. By integrating these findings with new climate forecasts, we predict that rising temperatures will force mountain ungulates to move upward and overcrowd thermal refugia with reduced carrying capacity. Our approach helps in identifying priority areas for the conservation of mountain species.

Thermal refuge affects space use and movement of a large-bodied galliform

Temperature affects every organism on Earth and has been argued to be one of the most critical factors influencing organisms' ecology and evolution. Most organisms are susceptible to landscape temperature ranges that exceed their thermal tolerance. As a result, the distribution of landscape features that mitigate thermal extremes can affect movement and space use of organisms. Using Rio Grande wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature throughout the diurnal period and identified vegetation characteristics at wild turkey locations and random landscape locations. We observed that the thermal landscape was highly heterogeneous with temperature varying up to 52 °C at a given ambient temperature. Vegetation type strongly influenced temperature across space during daily peak heating, with taller vegetation types (woody vegetation >2 m) having mean temperatures up to 8.95 °C cooler than the remainder of the landscape. However, these cooler vegetation types were uncommon, only accounting for 8.2% of the landscape. Despite the rarity of tall woody cover, wild turkey showed strong selection for this vegetation type particularly during peak daily heating with 74.9% of locations within 18 m of tree cover. Not only did wild turkey alter space use across time relative to temperature variation, but they also altered movement. We found that on the hottest days (≥35 °C), wild turkeys decreased movement by three fold during peak heating, while movement on cooler days (<30 °C) was uniform. Collectively, our data provide evidence that space use and movement for large avian species can be influenced by the thermal environment, and that the thermal environment is an important component of habitat for a species.

Interactive effects of severe drought and grazing on the life history cycle of a bioindicator species

We used the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), an iconic grouse species that exhibits a boom-bust life history strategy, on the Southern High Plains, USA, as a bioindicator of main and interactive effects of severe drought and grazing. This region experienced the worst drought on record in 2011. We surveyed lesser prairie-chicken leks (i.e., communal breeding grounds) across 12 years that represented 7 years before the 2011 drought (predrought) and 4 years during and following the 2011 drought (postdrought). Grazing was annually managed with the objective of achieving ≤50% utilization of aboveground vegetation biomass. We used lek (n = 49) count data and covariates of weather and managed grazing to: (a) estimate long-term lesser prairie-chicken abundance and compare abundance predrought and postdrought; (b) examine the influence of annual and seasonal drought (modified Palmer drought index), temperature, and precipitation on long-term lesser prairie-chicken survival and recruitment; and (c) assess and compare the influence of grazing on lesser prairie-chicken population predrought and postdrought. Lesser prairie-chicken abundance was nearly seven times greater predrought than postdrought, and population declines were attributed to decreased survival and recruitment. The number of days with temperature >90th percentile had the greatest effect, particularly on recruitment. The population exhibited a substantial bust during 2011 and 2012 without a boom to recover in four postdrought years. Adaptive grazing positively influenced the population predrought, but had no effects postdrought. Results suggest that the severe drought in 2011 may have been beyond the range of environmental conditions to which lesser prairie-chickens, and likely other species, have adapted. Land management practices, such as grazing, should remain adaptive to ensure potential negative influences to all species are avoided. Increasing habitat quantity and quality by reducing habitat loss and fragmentation likely will increase resiliency of the ecosystem and individual species.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.

Avian parental behavior and nest success influenced by temperature fluctuations

Behavioral adjustments and parental decisions during reproduction can influence the thermal environment at nests, yet our understanding into how environmental factors (i.e., temperature and precipitation) constrain an adult's ability to balance self-maintenance and incubation demands is limited. To expand our understanding of how species respond to environmental factors, we investigated the reproductive ecology of two ground-nesting species (northern bobwhite [Colinus virginianus] and scaled quail [Callipepla squamata]) in a region (i.e., the Southern Great Plains) prone to thermal variability (i.e., extreme hot and cold temperatures). Specifically, our objective was to examine how temperature and precipitation directly influenced behavioral adjustments (i.e., off-bout duration, frequency, and nest attentiveness) and parental decisions (i.e., nest site selection), and indirectly influenced nest fate. Overall, we found that parents chose to nest in sites that were significantly cooler in temperature than randomly selected sites, and parents further altered the thermal environment experienced by embryos through incubation behavior. Daily precipitation and average ambient temperature and/or their interaction best predicted incubation behaviors, yet each species differed in the timing (i.e., morning vs. evening), frequency, and duration of off-bouts. Furthermore, successful nests were associated with cooler nest site temperatures for bobwhite and warmer nest site temperatures for scaled quail. Our finding of relatively stable (35.5 °C) incubation temperature for developing embryos of both species suggests that ground-nesting birds are able to regulate microclimate through behavioral adjustments and parental decisions even under extreme temperature fluctuations. Nevertheless, the ability for a ground-nesting species to effectively modify behavioral adjustments and decisions may be altered during long periods of enhanced physiological and environmental stress.

Present and future thermal environments available to Sharp-tailed Grouse in an intact grassland

Better understanding animal ecology in terms of thermal habitat use has become a focus of ecological studies, in large part due to the predicted temperature increases associated with global climate change. To further our knowledge on how ground-nesting endotherms respond to thermal landscapes, we examined the thermal ecology of Sharp-tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) during the nesting period. We measured site-specific iButton temperatures (T_iB) and vegetation characteristics at nest sites, nearby random sites, and landscape sites to assess thermal patterns at scales relevant to nesting birds. We asked if microhabitat vegetation characteristics at nest sites matched the characteristics that directed macrohabitat nest-site selection. Grouse selected sites sheltered by dense vegetation for nesting that moderated T_iB on average up to 2.7°C more than available landscape sites. Successful nests were positioned in a way that reduced exposure to thermal extremes by as much as 4°C relative to failed nests with an overall mean daytime difference (±SE) of 0.4 ±0.03°C. We found that macrohabitat nest-site selection was guided by dense vegetation cover and minimal bare ground as also seen at the microhabitat scale. Global climate projections for 2080 suggest that T_iB at nest sites may approach temperatures currently avoided on the landscape, emphasizing a need for future conservation plans that acknowledge fine-scale thermal space in climate change scenarios. These data show that features of grassland landscapes can buffer organisms from unfavorable microclimatic conditions and highlight how thermal heterogeneity at the individual-level can drive decisions guiding nest site selection.

Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage-grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Inadequate thermal refuge constrains landscape habitability for a grassland bird species

Ecologists have long recognized the influence that environmental conditions have on abundance and range extent of animal species. We used the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model species for studying how microclimates serve as refuge against severe weather conditions. This species serves as an indicator or umbrella species for other sensitive ground-nesting, grassland obligate species. We conducted a mensurative field experiment in the rolling plains of Texas, USA, a semi-arid ecosystem on the southwestern periphery of bobwhite range, to determine whether native bunch grasses, apparently suitable for bobwhite nesting, could reduce ambient temperature below levels harmful for eggs. During the nesting season, we compared temperature and relative humidity readings at daily heat maxima (i.e., the 3 h during each day with highest temperatures) during the nesting season over the course of two years at 63 suitable nest sites paired with 63 random locations (n = 126) using two sensors at ∼10 and ∼60 cm above ground level. Mean temperature at nest height was 2.3% cooler at nest sites (35.99 °C ± 0.07 SE) compared to random locations (36.81 °C ± 0.07 SE); at ambient height, nest sites were slightly cooler (32.78 °C ± 0.06 SE) than random location (32.99 °C ± 0.06 SE). Mean relative humidity at nest sites was greater at nest height (34.53% ± 0.112 SE) and ambient height (36.22% ± 0.10 SE) compared to random locations at nest (33.35% ± 0.12 SE) and ambient height (35.75% ± 0.10 SE). Based on these results, cover at sites that appear visually suitable for nesting by bobwhites and other ground nesting birds provided adequate thermal refuge in the rolling plains by maintaining cooler, moister microclimates than surrounding non-nesting locations. Post-hoc analyses of data revealed that habitat conditions surrounding suitable nest sites strongly influenced thermal suitability of the substrate. Given that eggs of bobwhites and probably other species would experience lethal temperatures without these thermal refuges in the context of proper habitat condition, nesting vegetation is a critical component of niche space for bobwhites and other ground nesting birds in semi-arid regions. Many contemporary land uses, however, degrade or destroy bunch grasses and grassland systems, and thus decrease landscape inhabitability. Conservationists working with obligate grassland species that require bunch grasses in semi-arid regions should develop land management strategies that maximize the availability of these thermal refuges across space and time.

Using a historic drought and high-heat event to validate thermal exposure predictions for ground-dwelling birds

Deviations from typical environmental conditions can provide insight into how organisms may respond to future weather extremes predicted by climate modeling. During an episodic and multimonth heat wave event (i.e., ambient temperature up to 43.4°C), we studied the thermal ecology of a ground-dwelling bird species in Western Oklahoma, USA. Specifically, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) adult and brood locations as well as at stratified random points in the study area. On the hottest days (i.e., ≥39°C), adults and broods obtained thermal refuge using tall woody cover that remained on average up to 16.51°C cooler than random sites on the landscape which reached >57°C. We also found that refuge sites used by bobwhites moderated thermal conditions by more than twofold compared to stratified random sites on the landscape but that Tbb commonly exceeded thermal stress thresholds for bobwhites (39°C) for several hours of the day within thermal refuges. The serendipitous high heat conditions captured in our study represent extreme heat for our study region as well as thermal stress for our study species, and subsequently allowed us to assess ground-dwelling bird responses to temperatures that are predicted to become more common in the future. Our findings confirm the critical importance of tall woody cover for moderating temperatures and functioning as important islands of thermal refuge for ground-dwelling birds, especially during extreme heat. However, the potential for extreme heat loads within thermal refuges that we observed (albeit much less extreme than the landscape) indicates that the functionality of tall woody cover to mitigate heat extremes may be increasingly limited in the future, thereby reinforcing predictions that climate change represents a clear and present danger for these species.

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland-nesting birds

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground-nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), and Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory-related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species' nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness-related benefits.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.

Relative Importance of Climate Variables to Population Vital Rates: A Quantitative Synthesis for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation means and extremes, which can affect population vital rates. With the added complexity of accounting for both means and extremes, it is important to understand whether one aspect is sufficient to predict a particular vital rate or if both are necessary. To compare the predictive ability of climate means and extremes with geographic, individual, and habitat variables, we performed a quantitative synthesis on the vital rates of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidictinus) across their geographic range. We used an information theoretic approach to rank models predicting vital rates. We were able to rank climate models for three vital rates: clutch size, nest success, and subadult/adult seasonal survival. Of these three vital rates, a climate model was never the best predictor even when accounting for potentially different relationships between climate variables and vital rates between different ecoregions. Clutch size and nest success were both influenced by nesting attempt with larger clutches and greater success for first nesting attempts than second nesting attempts. Clutch size also increased with latitude for first nesting attempts but decreased with latitude for second nesting attempts. This resulted in similar clutch sizes for first and second nest attempts at southern latitudes but larger clutches for first nest attempts than second nest attempts at northern latitudes. Survival was greater for subadults than adults, but there were few estimates of subadult survival for comparison. Our results show that individual characteristics and geographic variables are better for predicting vital rates than climate variables. This may due to low samples sizes, which restricted our statistical power, or lack of precision in climate estimates relative to microclimates actually experienced by individuals. Alternatively, relationships between climate variables and vital rates may be constrained by time lags or local adaptation.

A framework for integrating thermal biology into fragmentation research

Habitat fragmentation changes thermal conditions in remnant patches, and thermal conditions strongly influence organism morphology, distribution, and activity patterns. However, few studies explore temperature as a mechanism driving ecological responses to fragmentation. Here we offer a conceptual framework that integrates thermal biology into fragmentation research to better understand individual, species, community, and ecosystem-level responses to fragmentation. Specifically, the framework addresses how fragmentation changes temperature and how the effects of those temperature changes spread through the ecosystem, from organism response via thermal sensitivity, to changes in species distribution and activity patterns, to shifts in community structure following species' responses, and ultimately to changes in ecosystem functions. We place a strong emphasis on future research directions by outlining "Critical gaps" for each step of the framework. Empirical efforts to apply and test this framework promise new understanding of fragmentation's ecological consequences and new strategies for conservation in an increasingly fragmented and warmer world.

A Ground-Nesting Galliform's Response to Thermal Heterogeneity: Implications for Ground-Dwelling Birds

The habitat selection choices that individuals make in response to thermal environments influence both survival and reproduction. Importantly, the way that organisms behaviorally respond to thermal environments depends on the availability and juxtaposition of sites affording tolerable or preferred microclimates. Although, ground nesting birds are especially susceptible to heat extremes across many reproductive stages (i.e., breeding, nesting, brood rearing), the mechanistic drivers of nest site selection for these species are not well established from a thermal perspective. Our goal was to assess nest site selection relative to the configuration of the thermal landscape by quantifying thermal environments available to a ground-nesting bird species inhabiting a climatically stressful environment. Using northern bobwhite (Colinus virginanus) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at 87 nests, 87 paired sites and 205 random landscape sites in Western Oklahoma during spring and summer 2013 and 2014. We found that thermal space within the study area exhibited differences in Tbb of up to 40°C during peak diurnal heating, resulting in a diverse thermal landscape available to ground-nesting birds. Within this thermally heterogeneous landscape, nest sites moderated Tbb by more than 12°C compared to random landscape sites. Furthermore, successful nests remained on average 6°C cooler than unsuccessful nests on days experiencing ambient temperatures ≥ 39°C. Models of future Tbb associated with 2080 climate change projections indicate that nesting bobwhites will face substantially greater Tbb throughout the landscape for longer durations, placing an even greater importance on thermal choices for nest sites in the future. These results highlight the capacity of landscape features to act as moderators of thermal extremes and demonstrate how thermal complexity at organism-specific scales can dictate habitat selection.