The association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio and mortality in septic patients: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-III database

Determination of systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), systemic inflammatory index (SII), HMGB1, Mx1 and TNF levels in neonatal calf diarrhea with systemic inflammatory response syndrome

The objective of this study was to examine the values of MX dynamin-like GTPase 1 (Mx1), high mobility group box-1 (HMGB1), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), systemic inflammatory index (SII), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), and other hematological indices in calves with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). The study material was divided into two groups: the SIRS group (comprising 13 calves) and the control group (comprising 10 calves). The independent samples t-test and Mann-Whitney U test were employed for normally distributed and non-normally distributed data, respectively. The relationship between the two groups was determined using Spearman correlation coefficient analysis. Significant differences were identified between the SIRS group and the control group with regard to white blood cell (WBC; P < 0.05), neutrophil (NEU; P < 0.01), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; P < 0.001) values, in addition to SIRI (P < 0.05), SII (P < 0.01) values. Furthermore, HMGB1 (P < 0.001), Mx1 (P < 0.05), and TNF values (P < 0.001) demonstrated notable disparities between the two groups. As a result of this study, it was concluded that there were significant increases in inflammatory hematological indices, as well as in the levels of HMGB1, Mx1, and TNF, in calves with SIRS.

Predictive value of the dynamics of absolute lymphocyte counts for 90-day mortality in ICU sepsis patients: a retrospective big data study

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to assess the clinical predictive value of the dynamics of absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) for 90-day all-cause mortality in sepsis patients in intensive care unit (ICU).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using big data.

SETTING

This study was conducted using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database V.2.0 database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were included if they were diagnosed with sepsis on the first day of ICU admission. Exclusion criteria were ICU stay under 24 hours; the absence of lymphocyte count on the first day; extremely high lymphocyte count (>10×109/L); history of haematolymphatic tumours, bone marrow or solid organ transplants; survival time under 72 hours and previous ICU admissions. The analysis ultimately included 17 329 sepsis patients.

RESULTS

The ALC in the non-survivors group was lower on days 1, 3, 5 and 7 after admission (p<0.001). The ALC on day 7 had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value for predicting 90-day mortality. The cut-off value of ALC on day 7 was 1.0×109/L. In the restricted cubic spline plot, after multivariate adjustments, patients with higher lymphocyte counts had a better prognosis. After correction, in the subgroups with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score ≥6 or age ≥60 years, ALC on day 7 had the lowest HR value (0.79 and 0.81, respectively). On the training and testing set, adding the ALC on day 7 improved all prediction models' AUC and average precision values.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic changes of ALC are closely associated with 90-day all-cause mortality in sepsis patients. Furthermore, the ALC on day 7 after admission is a better independent predictor of 90-day mortality in sepsis patients, especially in severely ill or young sepsis patients.

Association between admission pan-immune-inflammation value and short-term mortality in septic patients: a retrospective cohort study

Pan-Immune-Inflammation Value (PIV) has recently received more attention as a novel indicator of inflammation. We aimed to evaluate the association between PIV and prognosis in septic patients. Data were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. The primary and secondary outcomes were 28-day and 90-day mortality. The association between PIV and outcomes was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression analysis, restricted cubic spline curves and subgroup analysis. A total of 11,331 septic patients were included. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that septic patients with higher PIV had lower 28-day survival rate. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, log2-PIV was positively associated with the risk of 28-day mortality [HR (95% CI) 1.06 (1.03, 1.09), P < 0.001]. The relationship between log2-PIV and 28-day mortality was non-linear with a predicted inflection point at 8. To the right of the inflection point, high log2-PIV was associated with an increased 28-day mortality risk [HR (95% CI) 1.13 (1.09, 1.18), P < 0.001]. However, to the left of this point, this association was non-significant [HR (95% CI) 1.01 (0.94, 1.08), P = 0.791]. Similar results were found for 90-day mortality. Our study showed a non-linear relationship between PIV and 28-day and 90-day mortality risk in septic patients.

The prognostic value of the combined neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR) in sepsis

Sepsis is a severe disease characterized by high mortality rates. Our aim was to develop an early prognostic indicator of adverse outcomes in sepsis, utilizing easily accessible routine blood tests. A retrospective analysis of sepsis patients from the MIMIC-IV database was conducted. We performed univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality within 28 days. Logistic regression was utilized to combine the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR) into a composite score, denoted as NLR_NPR. We used ROC curves to compare the prognostic performance of the models and Kaplan-Meier survival curves to assess the 28 day survival rate. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the applicability of NLR_NPR in different subpopulations based on specific characteristics. This study included a total of 1263 sepsis patients, of whom 179 died within 28 days of hospitalization, while 1084 survived beyond 28 days. Multivariate regression analysis identified age, respiratory rate, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR), hypertension, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score as independent risk factors for 28 day mortality in septic patients (P < 0.05). Additionally, in the prediction model based on blood cell-related parameters, the combined NLR_NPR score exhibited the highest predictive value for 28 day mortality (AUC = 0.6666), followed by NLR (AUC = 0.6456) and NPR (AUC = 0.6284). Importantly, the performance of the NLR_NPR score was superior to that of the commonly used SOFA score (AUC = 0.5613). Subgroup analysis showed that NLR_NPR remained an independent risk factor for 28 day in-hospital mortality in the subgroups of age, respiratory rate, and SOFA, although not in the hypertension subgroup. The combined use of NLR and NPR from routine blood tests represents a readily available and reliable predictive marker for 28 day mortality in sepsis patients. These results imply that clinicians should prioritize patients with higher NLR_NPR scores for closer monitoring to reduce mortality rates.

Predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in the prognosis and risk of death for adult sepsis patients: a meta-analysis

Background

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a commonly used biomarker for acute inflammation that often rises during sepsis, making it a valuable diagnostic indicator for clinical practice. However, no consensus has been reached on the prognostic value of NLR for predicting the prognosis and mortality risk in adult sepsis patients. In light of this controversy, we conducted a meta-analysis to clarify the prognostic significance of NLR in adult sepsis patients. The meta-analysis was registered in the PROSPERO database (registration number CRD42023433143).

Methods

We performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Ovid, and Springer databases, using retrieval terms "sepsis" or "septic shock" and "prognosis" or "mortality" for studies published between January 1, 2000, and May 31, 2023. Children and neonates with sepsis were excluded from our research. Two independent researchers conducted the literature search and data extraction. Consensus was reached when discrepancies occurred, and in case of persistent discrepancies, the final decision was made by the research supervisor. The hazard ratio (HR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were extracted from each study included in the analysis. A random-effects model was used to synthesize all HRs and their 95% CIs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify studies that had a significant impact on the overall results of the meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to explore sources of heterogeneity. Egger's test was also used to investigate publication bias in this meta-analysis.

Results

After a comprehensive literature search and screening, we included 12 studies comprising 10,811 patients for the meta-analysis. The pooled results indicated that patients with a higher NLR level were associated with a poor prognosis (Random-effects model, HR: 1.6273, 95% CI: 1.3951-1.8981). Heterogeneity testing showed significant heterogeneity (I2 = 87.2%, 95% CI: 79.5-92, p<0.0001). Sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the sources of heterogeneity, which revealed that the omission of one highly sensitive study significantly reduced the I2 value. After removing this study, a strong association was found between a higher NLR level and poor prognosis and risk of death in adult sepsis patients (Random-effects model, HR: 1.6884, 95% CI: 1.4338-1.9882). Both subgroup analysis and meta-regression indicated that the study design and testing time of NLR were sources of heterogeneity. Egger's test showed no obvious publication bias in this meta-analysis.

Conclusion

NLR is a reliable and valuable biomarker for predicting prognosis and the risk of death in adult sepsis patients.

Systematic Review Registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023433143] PROSPERO, identifier [CRD42023433143].

Blood neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is associated with 90-day mortality and 60-day readmission in Gram negative bacteremia: a multi-center cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) in blood has demonstrated its capability to predict bacteremia in emergency departments, and its association with mortality has been established in patients with sepsis in intensive care units. However, its potential concerning mortality and readmission in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia (GNB) is unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients with GNB between 2018 and 2022 from six hospitals in the Capital Region of Denmark. Patients who were immunosuppressed or had missing NLR values on the day of blood culture were excluded. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between NLR levels and 90-day all-cause mortality, while the logit link interpretation of the cumulative incidence function was used to assess the association between NLR levels and 60-day readmission. Associations were quantified as odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

The study included 1763 patients with a median age was 76.8 years and 51.3% were female. The median NLR was 17.3 and 15.8% of patients had a quick sequential organ failure assessment score of two or three. Urinary tract infection (UTI) was the most frequent focus and Escherichia coli the most frequent pathogen. Statistically significant differences in median NLR were found by age group and pathogen, and for patients with or without hypertension, liver disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, and alcohol abuse. 378 patients (21.4%) died before 90 days. 526 (29.8%) patients were readmitted to the hospital within 60 days. For each doubling of the NLR, the OR for all-cause 90-day mortality was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.04-1.27) and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02-1.24) for 60-day readmission. Analysis of subgroups did not show statistically significant differences between groups in relation to the association between NLR and mortality. The discriminatory ability of NLR for mortality was limited and comparable to blood neutrophil or lymphocyte count, producing receiver operating characteristic curves with an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56-0.63), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56-0.65) and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.49-0.56), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Blood neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio was associated with 90-day all-cause mortality and 60-day readmission in patients with GNB. However, the ratio has limited ability in predicting mortality or readmission.

Comprehensive analysis of immune cell landscapes revealed that immune cell ratio eosinophil/B.cell.memory is predictive of survival in sepsis

BACKGROUND

Immune dysregulation is a feature of sepsis. However, a comprehensive analysis of the immune landscapes in septic patients has not been conducted.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to explore the abundance ratios of immune cells in sepsis and investigate their clinical value.

METHODS

Sepsis transcriptome data sets were downloaded from the NCBI GEO database. The immunedeconv R package was employed to analyze the abundance of immune cells in sepsis patients and calculate the ratios of different immune cell types. Differential analysis of immune cell ratios was performed using the t test. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was utilized to find the relationships between immune cell abundance and pathways. The prognostic significance of immune cell ratios for patient survival probability was assessed using the log-rank test. In addition, differential gene expression was performed using the limma package, and gene co-expression analysis was executed using the WGCNA package.

RESULTS

We found significant changes in immune cell ratios between sepsis patients and healthy controls. Some of these ratios were associated with 28-day survival. Certain pathways showed significant correlations with immune cell ratios. Notably, six immune cell ratios demonstrated discriminative ability for patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), bacterial sepsis, and viral sepsis, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) larger than 0.84. Patients with a high eosinophil/B.cell.memory ratio exhibited poor survival outcomes. A total of 774 differential genes were identified in sepsis patients with a high eosinophil/B.cell.memory ratio compared to those with a low ratio. These genes were organized into seven co-expression modules associated with relevant pathways, including interferon signaling, T-cell receptor signaling, and specific granule pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

Immune cell ratios eosinophil/B.cell.memory and NK.cell.activated/NK.cell.resting in sepsis patients can be utilized for disease subtyping, prognosis, and diagnosis. The proposed cell ratios may have higher prognostic values than the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR).

Evaluation of red blood cell distribution width, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and other hematologic parameters in canine acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

To determine if RBC distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and other hematological parameters are associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality, increased length of hospitalization (LOH), or disease severity as measured by the Canine Acute Pancreatitis Severity (CAPS) score in dogs with acute pancreatitis (AP).

DESIGN

Retrospective, multicenter study from January 2016 to August 2020.

SETTING

Four private emergency and specialty referral centers.

ANIMALS

On initial case search, 118 client-owned dogs were identified with a clinical diagnosis of AP. Out of these cases, 114 dogs met inclusion criteria, defined as sudden onset of ≥2 compatible clinic signs (lethargy, anorexia, vomiting, or abdominal pain), a specific canine pancreatic lipase concentration >400 μg/L, hospital admission, as well as CBC and serum biochemistry run within 48 hours of initial hospitalization. Disease severity was calculated and measured using the CAPS score, in addition to LOH and in-hospital mortality.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Clinical endpoints were in-hospital mortality, LOH, and disease severity, as evaluated by the CAPS score. Overall in-hospital mortality was 36.8%. NLR was significantly associated with survival, with a higher percentage being associated with an increased likelihood of nonsurvival (odds ratio: 1.1, 95% confidence interval: 1.0-1.2; P = 0.006, adjusted P = 0.04). Increased NLR was found to be significantly associated with a longer LOH based on the unadjusted P-value (P = 0.02) but was not statistically significant based on a P-value adjusted for multiple comparisons (P = 0.12). No significant associations were noted when RDW, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, WBC count, mean platelet volume, RDW-to-platelet ratio, or RDW-to-total serum calcium ratio was evaluated against outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study retrospectively evaluated the prognostic utility of several readily available hematological parameters in dogs hospitalized for AP. Dogs with an increased NLR may have a higher risk of in-hospital mortality and increased LOH, although future prospective studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

The association and prognostic value of systemic inflammatory response index with short and long-term mortality in patients with sepsis

This study evaluated the association and prognostic significance of the systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) with mortality in sepsis. In this cohort study, the sepsis patients were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV intensive care unit (ICU) databases. SIRI was calculated by using the neutrophil, monocyte, and lymphocyte counts. The outcomes were 28-day mortality, 1-year mortality, and 28 days to 1-year mortality. The Cox proportional hazards model with a hazard ratio (HR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to investigate the association and prognostic value of SIRI with mortality in sepsis. Subgroup analyses of the associations of SIRI with 28-day and 1-year mortality in sepsis were based on age, gender, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and presence or absence of septic shock. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive performances of SIRI, SOFA and SAPS II for mortality in sepsis. Of the 4239 patients included, 1339 patients suffered from 28-day mortality, 2085 patients suffering from 1-year mortality, and 746 (25.72%) suffered from 28 days to 1-year mortality. High SIRI levels exhibited higher risks of 28-day mortality (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03-1.29, P = .010), 1-year mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.24, P = .003), and 28 days to 1-year mortality (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.35, P = .047) in sepsis. A higher SIRI was reported related to 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality in sepsis patients with female gender, with SOFA < 8, with SAPS II < 44, and in sepsis patients without sepsis shock. The AUC of SIRS, SOFA, and SAPS II in predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis were 0.726, 0.591, and 0.644, respectively. The AUC of SIRI in predicting 1-year mortality in sepsis was 0.761, higher than the AUC values of SOFA and SAPS II. A higher AUC value of SIRI compared with SOFA, and SAPS II in predicting 28 days to 1-year mortality was observed. Elevated SIRI was associated with an increased risk of mortality in sepsis. SIRI is an independent prognostic biomarker of mortality in sepsis.

[Association of neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet ratio with acute kidney injury in sepsis]

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequent in sepsis (25 to 51%), with high mortality (40 to 80%) and long-term complications. Despite its importance we do not have accessible markers in intensive care. In other entities (post-surgical and COVID-19) the neutrophil/lymphocyte and platelet (N/LP) ratio has been associated with acute kidney injury; however, this relationship has not been studied in a pathology with a severe inflammatory response such as sepsis.

Objective

To demonstrate the association between N/LP with AKI secondary to sepsis in intensive care.

Material and methods

Ambispective cohort study in patients over 18 years who were admitted to intensive care with a diagnosis of sepsis. The N/LP ratio was calculated from admission up to the seventh day and up to the diagnosis of AKI and outcome. Statistical analysis was performed with chi squared test, Cramer's V and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Out of the 239 patients studied, the incidence of AKI developed in 70%. 80.9% of patients with N/LP ratio > 3 had AKI (p < 0.0001, Cramer's V 0.458, OR 3.05, 95% CI 1.602-5.8) and increased renal replacement therapy (21.1 vs. 11.1%, p = 0.043).

Conclusion

N/LP ratio > 3 has a moderate association with AKI secondary to sepsis in the intensive care unit.

Use of full blood count parameters and haematology cell ratios in screening for sepsis in South Africa

Background

Sepsis is characterised by multi-organ failure due to an uncontrolled immune response to infection. Sepsis prevalence is increased in developing countries and requires prompt diagnosis and treatment. Reports, although controversial, suggest that full blood count parameters and cell ratios could assist in the early screening for sepsis.

Objective

The study evaluated the use of haematological cell ratios in screening for sepsis in a South African population.

Methods

The study retrospectively analysed the complete blood counts, blood cultures (BC) and biochemical test results of 125 adult patients who presented between January 2021 and July 2021 at a hospital in Cape Town. An ISO15189-accredited laboratory performed all of the tests. We compared and correlated the automated differential counts, neutrophil, monocyte and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios with procalcitonin levels. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant.

Results

Sixty-two sepsis patients (procalcitonin > 2 ng/L and positive BC) were identified and compared to 63 non-sepsis controls. All cell ratios were significantly elevated in sepsis patients (p < 0.001). However, the two groups had no significant difference in absolute monocyte counts (p = 0.377). In addition, no correlation was detected between any cell ratios and procalcitonin.

Conclusion

In combination with complete blood count parameters, haematology cell ratios can be used for early sepsis detection. The full blood count is widely available, inexpensive, and routinely requested by emergency care clinicians. Although procalcitonin and BC remain the gold standard, the calculation of cell ratios could provide a simple screening tool for the early detection of sepsis.

What this study adds

This study adds evidence to the proposal that calculating haematological cell ratios assists in the early screening of sepsis in a South African setting.

Leveraging electronic health records for data science: common pitfalls and how to avoid them

Analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is an increasingly common approach for studying real-world patient data. Use of routinely collected data offers several advantages compared with other study designs, including reduced administrative costs, the ability to update analysis as practice patterns evolve, and larger sample sizes. Methodologically, EHR analysis is subject to distinct challenges because data are not collected for research purposes. In this Viewpoint, we elaborate on the importance of in-depth knowledge of clinical workflows and describe six potential pitfalls to be avoided when working with EHR data, drawing on examples from the literature and our experience. We propose solutions for prevention or mitigation of factors associated with each of these six pitfalls-sample selection bias, imprecise variable definitions, limitations to deployment, variable measurement frequency, subjective treatment allocation, and model overfitting. Ultimately, we hope that this Viewpoint will guide researchers to further improve the methodological robustness of EHR analysis.

A nomogram to predict prolonged stay of obesity patients with sepsis in ICU: Relevancy for predictive, personalized, preventive, and participatory healthcare strategies

Objective

In an era of increasingly expensive intensive care costs, it is essential to evaluate early whether the length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) of obesity patients with sepsis will be prolonged. On the one hand, it can reduce costs; on the other hand, it can reduce nosocomial infection. Therefore, this study aimed to verify whether ICU prolonged LOS was significantly associated with poor prognosis poor in obesity patients with sepsis and develop a simple prediction model to personalize the risk of ICU prolonged LOS for obesity patients with sepsis.

Method

In total, 14,483 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were randomized to the training set (3,606 patients) and validation set (1,600 patients). The potential predictors of ICU prolonged LOS among various factors were identified using logistic regression analysis. For internal and external validation, a nomogram was developed and performed.

Results

ICU prolonged LOS was defined as the third quartile of ICU LOS or more for all sepsis patients and demonstrated to be significantly associated with the mortality in ICU by logistic regression analysis. When entering the ICU, seven independent risk factors were identified: maximum white blood cell, minimum white blood cell, use of ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale, minimum albumin, maximum respiratory rate, and minimum red blood cell distribution width. In the internal validation set, the area under the curve was 0.73, while in the external validation set, it was 0.78. The calibration curves showed that this model predicted probability due to actually observed probability. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram had a high clinical net benefit.

Conclusion

In obesity patients with sepsis, we created a novel nomogram to predict the risk of ICU prolonged LOS. This prediction model is accurate and reliable, and it can assist patients and clinicians in determining prognosis and making clinical decisions.

Validation of Hematological Markers in Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis

Background

Neonatal sepsis is considered a ubiquitous worldwide cause of mortality and morbidity in newborn infants. The incidence is 10-50 per 1000 live births. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an easily accessible and cost-effective hematological marker for prompt diagnosis of neonatal sepsis.

Aim and objectives

The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical significance of NLR in neonates clinically diagnosed with sepsis and its impact on the management.

Methods

This retrospective study was conducted on 265 neonates diagnosed with sepsis and compared with 341 healthy controls. The statistical analysis was performed by using the Student's t-test to compare the variables.

Result

Median NLR levels were significantly higher in patients than in controls. NLR had a modest power of predicting neonatal sepsis, as suggested by an area under a curve of 0.569.

Conclusion

NLR is an important predictor of neonatal sepsis. There is a significant modest positive correlation between NLR and sepsis.

Predictive Value of Procalcitonin and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Variations for Bloodstream Infection with Septic Shock

BACKGROUND Little is known of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) variations in septic shock. Hence, the predictive value of procalcitonin (PCT) and NLR variations for septic shock in bloodstream infection were explored. MATERIAL AND METHODS We analyzed 146 patients with bloodstream infection admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from October 2016 to May 2020. PCT and NLR were evaluated at 0 and 48 h after admission, and their variations (ΔPCT and DNLR) were calculated. The patients were divided into a shock group (n=80) and a non-shock group (n=66) and a gram-positive cocci group (n=69) and a gram-negative bacilli group (n=77). The predictive value of ΔPCT and DNLR was compared among groups. RESULTS AUROC of NLR0h (0.756) higher than PCT0h (0.743).DPCT (0.561 vs 0.301) and ΔNLR (0.609 vs 0.361) were significantly higher in the shock group than in the non-shock group (P<0.05). No significant difference was seen in DPCT and DNLR in the gram-positive cocci infection group. However, the gram-negative bacilli infection group showed a significant difference in ΔPCT (0.606 vs 0.312) and ΔNLR (0.872 vs 0.508) between the shock and non-shock groups (P<0.05). ΔPCT+ΔNLR showed the best area under the curve (0.937), with a high sensitivity (78.80%) and specificity (90.80%), for predicting septic shock. CONCLUSIONS The prediction efficiency of initial NLR is higher than that of PCT. ΔPCT+ΔNLR best predicted septic shock in patients with bloodstream infections, with better accuracy for gram-negative infections.

Dynamic APACHE II Score to Predict the Outcome of Intensive Care Unit Patients

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score on different days in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients to identify the best time point for the APACHE II score.

Methods

The demographic and clinical data are retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset. APACHE II scores on days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, and 28 of hospitalization are calculated, and their performance is evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) analysis. The cut-off for defining the high risk of mortality is determined using Youden's index. The APACHE II score on day 3 is the best time point to predict hospital mortality of ICU patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test is then applied to evaluate the calibration of the day 3 APACHE II score.

Results

We recruited 6,374 eligible subjects from the MIMIC-IV database. Day 3 is the optimal time point for obtaining the APACHE II score to predict the hospital mortality of patients. The best cut-off for day 3 APACHE II score is 17. When APACHE II score ≥17, the sensitivity for the non-survivors and survivors is 92.8 and 82.2%, respectively, and the positive predictive value (PPV) is 23.1%. When APACHE II socre <17, the specificity for non-survivors and survivors is 90.1 and 80.2%, respectively, and the negative predictive value (NPV) is 87.8%. When day-3 APACHE II is used to predict the hospital mortality, the AUROC is 0.743 (P <0.001). In the ≥17 group, the sensitivity of non-survivors and survivors is 92.2 and 81.3%, respectively, and the PPV is 30.3%. In the <17 group, the specificity of non-survivors and survivors is 100.0 and 80.2%, respectively, and the NPV is 81.6%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated day-3 APACHE II has a high predicting the hospital mortality (X² = 6.198, P = 0.625, consistency = 79.4%). However, the day-1 APACHE II has a poor calibration in predicting the hospital mortality rate (X² = 294.898, P <0.001).

Conclusion

Day-3 APACHE II score is an optimal biomarker to predict the outcomes of ICU patients; 17 is the best cut-off for defining patients at high risk of mortality.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of mortality in intensive care unit patients: a retrospective analysis of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III Database

OBJECTIVES

Identifying high-risk patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is important given the high mortality rate. However, existing scoring systems lack easily accessible, low-cost and effective inflammatory markers. We aimed to identify inflammatory markers in routine blood tests to predict mortality in ICU patients and evaluate their predictive power.

DESIGN

Retrospective case-control study.

SETTING

Single secondary care centre.

PARTICIPANTS

We analysed data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. A total of 21 822 ICU patients were enrolled and divided into survival and death groups based on in-hospital mortality.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The predictive values of potential inflammatory markers were evaluated and compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. After identifying the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as having the best predictive ability, patients were redivided into low (≤1), medium (1-6) and high (>6) NLR groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the NLR and mortality. The area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to assess whether incorporating the NLR could improve the predictive power of existing scoring systems.

RESULTS

The NLR had the best predictive ability (AUC: 0.609; p<0.001). In-hospital mortality rates were significantly higher in the low (OR (OR): 2.09; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.66) and high (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.50 to 1.80) NLR groups than in the medium NLR group. Adding the NLR to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II improved the AUC from 0.789 to 0.798, with an NRI and IDI of 16.64% and 0.27%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The NLR predicted mortality in ICU patients well. Both low and high NLRs were associated with elevated mortality rates, including the NLR may improve the predictive power of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II.

Prognostic Value of Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio for Septic Shock: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Clinical Database

Background

Research has previously been done into the risk factors for mortality in septic shock patients. However, there has been no epidemiological study investigating the effect of the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BCR) on the prognosis of critically ill septic shock patients. This study is aimed at determining the relationship between BCR and all-cause mortality in adult septic shock patients.

Methods

Data were extracted from the MIMIC-III database. The clinical endpoints were 28-, 90-, and 365-day all-cause mortality rates in critically ill septic shock patients. Cox proportional hazards models and subgroup analyses were used to analyze the relationship between BCR quartiles and all-cause mortality in septic shock patients. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated to evaluate how accurately BCR predicts the mortality of septic shock patients.

Results

Among the 2484 septic shock patients extracted from the database, 619, 563, 677, and 625 fell into the first (<14.4 mg/dL), second (≥14.4 mg/dL and <20.0 mg/dL), third (≥20.0 mg/dL and <27.3 mg/dL), and fourth (≥27.3 mg/dL) quartiles of BCR, respectively. Male and white patients accounted for 53.8% (1336 patients) and 74.8% (1857 patients) of the population, respectively. The mean age of the population was 67.7 ± 15.8 years. An inverse M-shaped relationship between BCR and mortality in septic shock patients was identified, with a value of ≥27.3 mg/dL providing the highest risk (HR = 1.596, 95% CI: 1.396-1.824, P < 0.001). In the Cox regression model adjusted for different confounding variables, BCR values in the fourth quartiles were significantly associated with increased mortality, using the first quartiles as a reference. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for BCR plus the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and BCR plus Acute Physiology Score III (APSIII) were 0.694 (95% CI: 0.673-0.716) and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.703-0.744), respectively.

Conclusion

An inverse M-shaped curve was determined between BCR and the mortality of septic shock patients. BCR was identified as a readily available and independent prognostic biomarker for septic shock patients, and higher BCRs were associated with increased mortality in these patients.