The construction and validation of the model for predicting the incidence and prognosis of brain metastasis in lung cancer patients

Incidence of brain metastasis according to patient race and primary cancer origin: a systematic review

PURPOSE

A systematic review was conducted to investigate differences in incidence and primary origin of synchronous brain metastasis (sBM) in varying racial groups with different primary cancers.

METHODS

Adhering to PRISMA 2020 guidelines a search was conducted using PubMed and Ovid databases for publications from January 2000 to January 2023, with search terms including combinations of "brain metastasis," "race," "ethnicity," and "incidence." Three independent reviewers screened for inclusion criteria encompassing studies clearly reporting primary cancer sites, patient demographics including race, and synchronous BM (sBM) incidence.

RESULTS

Of 806 articles, 10 studies comprised of mainly adult patients from the United States met final inclusion for data analysis. Higher sBM incidence proportions were observed in American Indian/Alaska native patients for primary breast (p < 0.001), colorectal (p = 0.015), and esophageal cancers (p = 0.024) as well as in Asian or Pacific islanders for primary stomach (p < 0.001), thyroid (p = 0.006), and lung/bronchus cancers (p < 0.001) yet higher proportions in White patients for malignant melanoma (p < 0.001). Compared to White patients, Black patients had higher sBM incidence likelihood in breast cancer (OR = 1.27, p = 0.01) but lower likelihood in renal (OR = 0.46, p < 0.001) and esophageal cancers (OR = 0.31, p = 0.005). American Indian/Alaska native patients had a higher sBM likelihood (OR = 3.78, p = 0.004) relative to White patients in esophageal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal several comparative racial differences in sBM incidence arising from different primary cancer origins, underscoring a need for further research to explain these variations. Identifying the factors contributing to these disparities holds the potential to promote greater equity in oncological care according to cancer type.

Prediction of distant organ metastasis and overall survival of lung cancer patients: a SEER population-based cohort study

Background

Distant organ metastasis is a common event in lung cancer (LC). However, the preferential metastatic pattern of different pathological types of LC and its effect on prognosis have not been comprehensively elucidated. This study aimed to explore the distant metastasis pattern and construct nomograms predicting the metastasis and survival of LC patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Methods

LC data were downloaded from the SEER database to conduct logistic regression and investigate risk factors for developing organ metastasis. A Cox regression analysis was conducted to investigate prognostic factors of LC. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate overall survival outcomes. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of organ metastasis and the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival probability of LC patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the nomograms. All statistical analyses were conducted within R software.

Results

The liver is the most common metastatic organ of small cell carcinoma. The brain is the most likely metastasis site of large cell carcinoma, and bone is the most likely metastasis site for squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma. Patients with triple metastases (brain-bone-liver) have the worst prognosis, and for nonsquamous carcinoma with single organ metastasis, liver metastases conferred the worst prognosis. Our nomograms based on clinical factors could predict the metastasis and prognosis of LC patients.

Conclusion

Different pathological types of LC have different preferential metastatic sites. Our nomograms showed good performance in predicting distant metastasis and overall survival. These results will provide a reference for clinicians and contribute to clinical evaluations and individualized therapeutic strategies.

Risk and prognostic factors of brain metastasis in lung cancer patients: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results population‑based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Brain is a common metastasis site in lung cancer patients. However, homogeneous and heterogeneous risk/prognostic factors of brain metastasis for lung cancer patients have not been comprehensively elucidated. This study aimed to explore the brain metastasis risk and prognostic factors in lung cancer patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Lung cancer data were downloaded from SEER database to investigate risk factors for developing brain metastasis using logistic regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify potential prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to evaluate the survival. Propensity score matching was conducted to eliminate baseline differences between two groups.

RESULTS

A total of 10 818 (14.1%) patients with brain metastasis were diagnosed among 76 483 lung cancer patients. For non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), distant liver/bone/lymph node metastases, higher T, N stages were risk factors. Black race, bone metastases and distant lymph node metastases and T4 were brain metastasis risk factors for SCLC patients. Cox analysis suggested that older age, male, primary lesion at main bronchus, liver/ bone/distant lymph node metastases, T2-4, N1-3, no surgery/chemotherapy/radiotherapy were associated with worse prognosis of NSCLC-brain metastasis patients. Age older than 80, liver/bone metastases, without radiotherapy and chemotherapy were associated with worse prognosis of SCLC-brain metastasis patients. Surgery of primary site could prolong the overall survival (OS) of NSCLC patients with brain metastasis, but not SCLC.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we analyzed the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk/prognostic factors of brain metastasis in lung cancer patients. What is more, our results showed that surgery of primary site was associated with longer OS of NSCLC patients with brain metastasis.

Brain parenchymal and leptomeningeal metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer

Patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are prone to brain metastases (BM), which essentially include brain parenchymal metastases (PM) and leptomeningeal metastases (LM). We conducted a retrospective study to comprehensively assess the clinical characteristics and risk factors of patients with advanced NSCLC who develop PM and LM. Patients with advanced NSCLC were enrolled. These patients were then divided into three groups for analysis: patients without BM (No-BM), patients with PM and patients with LM. Data on clinical characteristics of each patient at the time of diagnosis advanced NSCLC were extracted and analyzed. In addition, prediction models were developed and evaluated for PM and LM. A total of 592 patients were enrolled in the study. BM was present in 287 patients (48.5%). Among them, 185 and 102 patients had PM or LM. Patients with LM had a higher proportion of EGFR exon 21point mutations (L858R) compared to patients with No-BM and PM (p < 0.0001). The median time to the onset of PM and LM from the diagnosis of advanced NSCLC was 0 months and 8.3 months, respectively. Patients with LM had a statistically shorter over survival (OS) compared to either No-BM or PM patients (p < 0.0001). Based on independent predictive variables, two nomogram models were constructed to predict the development of PM and LM in advanced NSCLC patients, and the C-indexes were 0.656 and 0.767, respectively. Although both considered as BM, PM and LM had different clinical characteristics. And the nomogram showed good performance in predicting LM development, but not PM.

A novel nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival in small cell lung cancer patients with brain metastasis

Background

Brain metastasis (BM) is one of the most common metastatic sites in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC), and the prognosis remains very poor. This study aimed to establish a novel nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) in SCLC patients with BM.

Methods

SCLC patients with BM from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors, which were further used to construct the prognostic nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under ROC curve (AUC) and calibration plot. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical usefulness. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was applied to analyze the survival outcome.

Results

A total of 2,462 patients were enrolled in this study, and randomly assigned into training cohort (n=1,723) and validation cohort (n=739). Age, N stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, liver metastasis and lung metastasis were identified as independent prognostic factors of CSS. The C-indexes of nomogram was 0.683 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.667-0.699] in the training cohort, and 0.659 (95% CI: 0.634-0.684) in the validation cohort. The AUC values of 6-, 9- and 12-month CSS were 0.723, 0.742 and 0.737 respectively in the training cohort, while 0.715, 0.737 and 0.739 in the validation cohort. The ROC, calibration and DCA curves showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability of this nomogram in predicting prognosis. Moreover, patients in high-risk group had a worse survival outcome than patients in medium-risk and low-risk groups.

Conclusions

A novel nomogram was constructed and validated for predicting individual prognosis in SCLC patients with BM. This nomogram could help clinicians make effective treatment strategies for patients.

Improved Survival With Surgical Treatment of Primary Lung Lesions in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Brain Metastases: A Propensity‐Matched Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Objectives

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with Brain metastases (BM) is an advanced disease with poor prognosis and low survival rate. Our study evaluated the survival benefit of primary lung resection with mediastinal lymph node dissection in NSCLC patients with BM using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-result (SEER) databases.

Methods

All cases analyzed were from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The data of the patients with BM of NSCLC from 2010 to 2016 was retrospectively analyzed. Patients (N=203) patients who underwent radical surgical treatment for primary lung lesions and patients (N=15500) who did not undergo surgery were compared. We successfully analyzed patients using propensity score matching (PSM). Kaplan‐Meier and Cox‐ regression analyses were applied to assess prognosis.

Results

The median survival in the surgery group was longer than in the control group (27 months vs 5 months; P &lt; 0.001) in the overall sample, 21 months longer compared to the control group (27 months vs 6 months; P&lt;0.001) in a PSM cohort. Cox regression analysis showed that underwent surgery patients in the propensity-matched sample had a significantly lower risk of mortality (HR:0.243, 95%CI: 0.162-0.365, P &lt; 0.001) compared with untreated patients. Multivariate analysis identified the following as independent risk factors for NSCLC with BM: no primary resection surgery, age &gt;65 years, worse differentiation, squamous cell carcinoma, lymphatic metastasis, no systemic therapy. Subgroup analysis revealed that radical resection of the primary lung provided a survival benefit regardless of marital status, tumor size, tumor grade, tumor T stage, and mediastinal lymph node metastasis after PSM.

Conclusion

Radical resection of primary lung can improve the survival of NSCLC patients with BM. Male, age&gt;65years, poorly differentiated tumor, tumor size&gt;5cm, and mediastinal lymph node metastasis were factors for poor survival.