Improved Simulation of Edaphic and Manure Phosphorus Loss in SWAT

Fate and transport in environmental quality

Changes in pollutant concentrations in environmental media occur both from pollutant transport in water or air and from local processes, such as adsorption, degradation, precipitation, straining, and so on. The terms "fate and transport" and "transport and fate" reflect the coupling of moving with the carrier media and biogeochemical processes describing local transformations or interactions. The Journal of Environmental Quality (JEQ) was one of the first to publish papers on fate and transport (F&T). This paper is a minireview written to commemorate the 50th anniversary of JEQ and show how the research interests, methodology, and public attention have been reflected in fate and transport publications in JEQ during the last 40 years. We report the statistics showing how the representation of different pollutant groups in papers changed with time. Major focus areas have included the effect of solution composition on F&T and concurrent F&T, the role of organic matter, and the relative role of different F&T pathways. The role of temporal and spatial heterogeneity has been studied at different scales. The value of long-term F&T studies and developments in modeling as the F&T research approach was amply demonstrated. Fate and transport studies have been an essential part of conservation measure evaluation and comparison and ecological risk assessment. For 50 years, JEQ has delivered new insights, methods, and applications related to F&T science. The importance of its service to society is recognized, and we look forward to new generations of F&T researchers presenting their contributions in JEQ.

Long-term effect of poultry litter application on phosphorus balances and runoff losses

Assessment of annual and cumulative impacts of phosphorus (P) management strategies at field and watershed scales is needed to improve crop use efficiency and minimize environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were (a) to assess relationships among P balance, soil test P (STP) concentration, and runoff dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentration from fields receiving different poultry litter application rates (0.0-13.4 Mg ha^-1 ) and (b) to determine the effect of long-term poultry litter application to fields on watershed DRP loss. Nutrient management practices, crop yield, STP, and runoff losses were assessed from nine fields and two watersheds located near Riesel, TX, from 2000 to 2015. Field-scale P balances were largely controlled by P application rate and exhibited a positive relationship with STP and runoff DRP flow-weighted mean concentration. Using a before-after control-impact experimental design that included monitoring at both field and watershed scales showed the influence of field P management on watershed DRP loss varied according to both source (i.e., P application rate, impacted area) and transport (i.e., hydrological connectivity) factors. Increased risk of watershed DRP loss was observed during wet years and years with two poultry litter applications to fields within the watershed. The percentage of the total watershed area receiving high rates of poultry litter also played a critical role in determining the risk of DRP loss. Findings highlight the impact of long-term P management strategies on DRP loss at both field and watershed scales and show the importance of incorporating hydrologic connectivity when assessing conservation effects on water quality.

Phosphorus Transport along the Cropland–Riparian–Stream Continuum in Cold Climate Agroecosystems: A Review

Phosphorus (P) loss from cropland to ground and surface waters is a global concern. In cold climates (CCs), freeze–thaw cycles, snowmelt runoff events, and seasonally wet soils increase P loss potential while limiting P removal effectiveness of riparian buffer zones (RBZs) and other practices. While RBZs can help reduce particulate P transfer to streams, attenuation of dissolved P forms is more challenging. Moreover, P transport studies often focus on either cropland or RBZs exclusively rather than spanning the natural cropland–RBZ–stream gradient, defined here as the cropland–RBZ–stream continuum. Watershed P transport models and agronomic P site indices are commonly used to identify critical source areas; however, RBZ effects on P transport are usually not included. In addition, the coarse resolution of watershed P models may not capture finer-scale soil factors affecting P mobilization. It is clear that site microtopography and hydrology are closely linked and important drivers of P release and transport in overland flow. Combining light detection and ranging (LiDAR) based digital elevation models with P site indices and process-based models show promise for mapping and modeling P transport risk in cropland-RBZ areas; however, a better mechanistic understanding of processes controlling mobile P species across regions is needed. Broader predictive approaches integrating soil hydro-biogeochemical processes with real-time hydroclimatic data and risk assessment tools also hold promise for improving P transport risk assessment in CCs.

Source contribution to phosphorus loads from the Maumee River watershed to Lake Erie

Coastal eutrophication is a leading cause of degraded water quality around the world. Identifying the sources and their relative contributions to impaired downstream water quality is an important step in developing management plans to address water quality concerns. Recent mass-balance studies of Total Phosphorus (TP) loads of the Maumee River watershed highlight the considerable phosphorus contributions of non-point sources, including agricultural sources, degrading regional downstream water quality. This analysis builds upon these mass-balance studies by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the movement of phosphorus from manure, inorganic fertilizer, point sources, and soil sources, and respective loads of TP and Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus (DRP). This yields a more explicit estimation of source contribution from the watershed. Model simulations indicate that inorganic fertilizers contribute a greater proportion of TP (45% compared to 8%) and DRP (58% compared to 12%) discharged from the watershed than manure sources in the March-July period, the season driving harmful algal blooms. Although inorganic fertilizers contributed a greater mass of TP and DRP than manure sources, the two sources had similar average delivery fractions of TP (2.7% for inorganic fertilizers vs. 3.0% for manure sources) as well as DRP (0.7% for inorganic fertilizers vs. 1.2% for manure sources). Point sources contributed similar proportions of TP (5%) and DRP (12%) discharged in March-July as manure sources. Soil sources of phosphorus contributed over 40% of the March-July TP load and 20% of the March-July DRP load from the watershed to Lake Erie. Reductions of manures and inorganic fertilizers corresponded to a greater proportion of phosphorus delivered from soil sources of phosphorus, indicating that legacy phosphorus in soils may need to be a focus of management efforts to reach nutrient load reduction goals. In agricultural watersheds aground the world, including the Maumee River watershed, upstream nutrient management should not focus solely on an individual nutrient source; rather a comprehensive approach involving numerous sources should be undertaken.

Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal)

Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970-2000, 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress - NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region.

Modeling of phosphorus loss from field to watershed: A review

Phosphorus (P) losses from nonpoint sources into surface water resources through surface runoff and tile drainage play a significant role in eutrophication. Accordingly, the number of studies involving the modeling of agricultural P losses, the uncertainties of such models, and the best management practices (BMPs) supported by the modeling of hypothetical P loss reduction scenarios has increased significantly around the world. Many improvements have been made to these models: separate manure P pools, variable source areas allowing the determination of critical source areas of P loss, analyses of modeling uncertainties, and understanding of legacy P. However, several elements are still missing or have yet to be sufficiently addressed: the incorporation of preferential flow into models, the modification of P sorption-desorption processes considering recent research data (e.g., pedotransfer functions for labile, active, or stable P, along with P sorption coefficients), BMP parameterization, and scale-up issues, as well as stakeholder-scientist and experimentalist-modeler interactions. The accuracy of P loss modeling can be improved by (a) incorporating dynamic P sorption-desorption processes and new P subroutines for direct P loss from manure, fertilizer, and dung, (b) modeling preferential flow, connectivity between field and adjacent water bodies, and P in-stream processes, (c) including an assessment of model uncertainty, (d) integrating field and watershed models for BMP calibration and scaling field results up to larger areas, and (e) building a holistic interaction between stakeholders, experimentalists, and modelers.

Headwater stream condition and nutrient runoff: Relating SWAT to empirical ecological measures in an agricultural watershed in Pennsylvania

Managing nonpoint sources of nutrients and sediments is the primary challenge for improving conditions in the Susquehanna-Chesapeake basin. Aquatic macroinvertebrates are widely used indicators of stream ecological integrity, but the relationship between nutrient runoff and macroinvertebrate response remains indistinct. Logistical and financial hurdles hinder collection of high-resolution empirical nutrient data, but landscape-based models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) offer a more practical approach. Nutrient runoff was simulated with SWAT for a small, upland, agricultural Pennsylvania watershed. Three levels of ecological assessment were used to interpret SWAT results. Macroinvertebrate communities (intensive) were sampled at 14 sites and described using an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI). Biological integrity was moderately degraded in many reaches. The Stream-Wetland-Riparian (SWR) Index (rapid) and landscape metrics (remote) also indicated prevalent agricultural stressors. Baseflow nitrate grab samples, collected once per season, showed no significant relationship with IBI score. Thirty spatiotemporal scales of nutrient data were extracted from SWAT for phosphorus, nitrate, and organic nitrogen. Best subsets regression was performed on IBI scores using SWAT, land cover, and SWR variables. Results were significant (p < .001) with high R² values (84.8 and 86.2), signifying a negative relationship between instream nutrient concentration and IBI score. This study demonstrates the viability of SWAT as an alternative to in-field nutrient sampling, the value of spatiotemporal scale in model outputs, and the importance of site condition variables in relating nutrients to stream ecological health.

Phosphorus loss assessment tools: a review of underlying concepts and applicability in cold climates

Identifying critical source areas (CSAs) of a watershed by phosphorus (P) loss assessment tools is essential for optimal placement of beneficial management practices (BMPs) to address diffuse P pollution. However, lack of significant progress in tackling diffuse P pollution could be, in part, associated with inefficacy of P loss assessment tools for accurately identifying CSAs. Phosphorus loss assessment tools have been developed to simulate P loss from the landscape where runoff is mainly driven by rainfall events. Therefore, they may underperform in cold climates where the land is often frozen during winter and runoff is dominated by snowmelt. This paper (i) reviews the strengths and weaknesses of current P loss assessment tools and their underlying assumptions in simulating soil P dynamics and P transfer to runoff, and (ii) highlights a number of challenges associated with modeling P transfer from agricultural land to surface waters in cold climates. Current P loss assessment tools do not appear to fully represent hydrological and biogeochemical processes responsible for P loss from CSAs, particularly in cold climates. Effort should be made to develop P loss assessment tools that are capable of considering P dynamics through the landscape as a result of abiotic perturbations that are common in cold climates, predicting runoff and P movement over frozen/partially frozen soils, and considering material-P connectivity between landscape and surface waters. Evaluating P loss assessment tools with water quality data is necessary to ensure such modifications result in improved identification of CSAs.

Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios

Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014-2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

Soil Phosphorus Modeling for Modern Agriculture Requires Balance of Science and Practicality: A Perspective

The use of phosphorus (P) fertilizers in arable crop and pastoral systems is expected to change as modern agriculture is challenged to produce more food with fewer inputs. Agricultural systems models offer a dual purpose to support and integrate recent scientific advances and to identify strategies for farmers to improve nutrient efficiency. However, compared with nitrogen and carbon, advances in P modeling have been less successful. We assessed the potential opportunity of P modeling to increase P efficiency for modern agriculture and identified the current challenges associated with modeling P dynamics at the field scale. Three major constraints were (i) a paucity of detailed field datasets to model strategies aimed at increasing P use efficiency, (ii) a limited ability to predict P cycling and availability under the local effects of climate change, and (iii) a restricted ability to match measured soil P fractions to conceptual and modelable pools in soils with different mineral properties. To improve P modeling success, modelers will need to walk a tightrope to balance the roles of assisting detailed empirical research and providing practical land management solutions. We conclude that a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration is needed to acquire suitable datasets, continually assess the need for model adjustment, and provide flexibility for progression of scientific theory. Such an approach is likely to advance P management for increased P use efficiency.

Evaluating Management Implications of the New York Phosphorus Index with Farm Field Information

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields can contribute to water quality degradation. The current New York P index (NY-PI) scores fields on the basis of P sources and field characteristics that reflect risk of P transport (a source × transport approach). Recently, a transport × best management practice (BMP) approach was proposed, which first scores fields using landscape-driven transport factors and then offers various BMPs to reduce the score (i.e., risk of P transport). To analyze the score distribution of the current NY-PI and the incentivizing potential of the proposed structure, a database of 33,327 agricultural fields in New York was assembled in collaboration with nutrient management planners and farmers. Under the current NY-PI, no additional P could be applied to 2% of the fields, while for 3% the application rates should not exceed annual crop P removal. Flow distance (field to stream) was a major driver for NY-PI scores. The current NY-PI relies heavily on soil test P to assess runoff risk, allowing some low-P fields to receive manure independent of transport risk. A scenario evaluation showed that the proposed NY-PI limits P application on fields with high transport risk while simultaneously incentivizing adoption of BMPs in such areas. In the absence of farm-level water quality data, a farm field database can help set P index coefficients and assess implications of a new P index. This study emphasizes the value of involving stakeholders in assessing nutrient management tools, as well as the importance of using an incentive-driven approach for protecting water resources.

Dynamics of Measured and Simulated Dissolved Phosphorus in Runoff from Winter-Applied Dairy Manure

Agricultural P loss from fields is an issue due to water quality degradation. Better information is needed on the P loss in runoff from dairy manure applied in winter and the ability to reliably simulate P loss by computer models. We monitored P in runoff during two winters from chisel-tilled and no-till field plots that had liquid dairy manure applied in December or January. Runoff total P was dominated by nondissolved forms when soils were bare and unfrozen. Runoff from snow-covered, frozen soils had much less sediment and sediment-related P, and much more dissolved P. Transport of manure solids was greatest when manure was applied on top of snow and runoff shortly after application was caused by snowmelt. Dissolved P concentrations in runoff were greater when manure was applied on top of snow because manure liquid remained in the snowpack and allowed more P to be available for loss. Dissolved runoff P also increased as the amount of rain or snowmelt that became runoff (runoff ratio) increased. The SurPhos manure P runoff model reliably simulated these processes to provide realistic predictions of dissolved P in runoff from surface manure. Overall, for liquid dairy manure applied in winter, dissolved P concentrations in runoff can be decreased if manure is applied onto bare, unfrozen soil, or if runoff ratio can be reduced, perhaps through greater soil surface roughness from fall tillage. Both management approaches will allow more manure P to infiltrate into soil and less move in runoff. SurPhos is a tool that can reliably evaluate P loss for different management and policy scenarios for winter manure application.

Modeling the Impacts of Manure on Phosphorus Loss in Surface Runoff and Subsurface Drainage

Simulation of phosphorus (P) transfer from manured agricultural lands to water bodies via surface runoff and subsurface drainage is potentially of great help in evaluating the risks and effects of eutrophication under a range of best management practice scenarios. However, it remains a challenge since few models are capable of providing a reasonably accurate prediction of P losses under manure treatment. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was applied to simulate the impacts on dissolved reactive P (DRP) losses through surface runoff and subsurface drainage from a solid cattle manure-amended corn ( L.)-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation on a clay loam soil (Vertisol) located in the Lake Erie region. Simulations of DRP loss in surface runoff and tile drainage were satisfactory; however, EPIC did not consider DRP loss directly from manure, weakening its accuracy in the prediction of DRP loss in surface runoff. Having previously drawn on EPIC-predicted surface runoff to initiate SurPhos (Surface Phosphorus and Runoff Model) predictions of DRP losses strictly in surface runoff, no comparison had been made of differences in manure application impacts on EPIC- or SurPhos-predicted DRP losses-accordingly, this was assessed. The SurPhos improved the estimation of DRP loss in surface runoff (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, 0.53), especially when large rain events occurred immediately after or within 6 wk of manure application. Generally, EPIC can capture the impacts of manure application on DRP loss in surface runoff and subsurface drainage; however, coupling of the EPIC and SurPhos models increased the accuracy of simulation of runoff DRP losses.

Advancing the Sustainability of US Agriculture through Long-Term Research

Agriculture in the United States must respond to escalating demands for productivity and efficiency, as well as pressures to improve its stewardship of natural resources. Growing global population and changing diets, combined with a greater societal awareness of agriculture's role in delivering ecosystem services beyond food, feed, fiber, and energy production, require a comprehensive perspective on where and how US agriculture can be sustainably intensified, that is, made more productive without exacerbating local and off-site environmental concerns. The USDA's Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network is composed of 18 locations distributed across the contiguous United States working together to integrate national and local agricultural priorities and advance the sustainable intensification of US agriculture. We explore here the concept of sustainable intensification as a framework for defining strategies to enhance production, environmental, and rural prosperity outcomes from agricultural systems. We also elucidate the diversity of factors that have shaped the past and present conditions of cropland, rangeland, and pastureland agroecosystems represented by the LTAR network and identify priorities for research in the areas of production, resource conservation and environmental quality, and rural prosperity. Ultimately, integrated long-term research on sustainable intensification at the national scale is critical to developing practices and programs that can anticipate and address challenges before they become crises.

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to surface runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season daily surface runoff data from clay loam experimental plots subject to different manure/fertilizer applications. Model performance was evaluated on the basis of the coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of observed values (RSR). The model offered an acceptable performance in simulating soil labile P dynamics (R² = 0.75, NSE = 0.55, PBIAS = 10.43%, and RSR = 0.67) and dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss in surface runoff (R² ≥ 0.74 and NSE ≥ 0.69) for both solid and liquid cattle manure, as well as inorganic fertilizer. Simulated direct P loss in surface runoff from solid and liquid cattle manure accounted for 39% and 40% of total growing season DRP losses in surface runoff. To compensate for the unavailability of daily surface runoff observations under snow melt condition, the whole four years' (2008-2011) daily surface runoff predicted by EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used as SurPhos input. The accuracy of simulated DRP loss in surface runoff under the different manure/fertilizer treatments was acceptable (R² ≥ 0.55 and NSE ≥ 0.50). For the solid cattle manure treatment, of all annual DRP losses, 19% were derived directly from the manure. Beyond offering a reliable prediction of manure/fertilizer P loss in surface runoff, SurPhos quantified different sources of DRP loss and dynamic labile P in soil, allowing a better critical assessment of different P management measures' effectiveness in mitigating DRP losses.

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO₃-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and di-nitrogen (N₂). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO₃- (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N₂O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N₂ (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO₃- (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N₂O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N₂ (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil.

Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change

Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO₃-N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO₃-N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural CPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality effects as more widespread adoption.

Quantifying the Impact of Seasonal and Short-term Manure Application Decisions on Phosphorus Loss in Surface Runoff

Agricultural phosphorus (P) management is a research and policy issue due to P loss from fields and water quality degradation. Better information is needed on the risk of P loss from dairy manure applied in winter or when runoff is imminent. We used the SurPhos computer model and 108 site-years of weather and runoff data to assess the impact of these two practices on dissolved P loss. Model results showed that winter manure application can increase P loss by 2.5 to 3.6 times compared with non-winter applications, with the amount increasing as the average runoff from a field increases. Increased P loss is true for manure applied any time from late November through early March, with a maximum P loss from application in late January and early February. Shifting manure application to fields with less runoff can reduce P loss by 3.4 to 7.5 times. Delaying manure application when runoff is imminent can reduce P loss any time of the year, and sometimes quite significantly, but the number of times that application delays will reduce P loss is limited to only 3 to 9% of possible spreading days, and average P loss may be reduced by only 15% for winter-applied manure and 6% for non-winter-applied manure. Overall, long-term strategies of shifting manure applications to low runoff seasons and fields can potentially reduce dissolved P loss in runoff much more compared with near-term, tactical application decisions of avoiding manure application when runoff is imminent.

Comparing an Annual and a Daily Time-Step Model for Predicting Field-Scale Phosphorus Loss

A wide range of mathematical models are available for predicting phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields, ranging from simple, empirically based annual time-step models to more complex, process-based daily time-step models. In this study, we compare field-scale P-loss predictions between the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE), an empirically based annual time-step model, and the Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool (TBET), a process-based daily time-step model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We first compared predictions of field-scale P loss from both models using field and land management data collected from 11 research sites throughout the southern United States. We then compared predictions of P loss from both models with measured P-loss data from these sites. We observed a strong and statistically significant ( < 0.001) correlation in both dissolved (ρ = 0.92) and particulate (ρ = 0.87) P loss between the two models; however, APLE predicted, on average, 44% greater dissolved P loss, whereas TBET predicted, on average, 105% greater particulate P loss for the conditions simulated in our study. When we compared model predictions with measured P-loss data, neither model consistently outperformed the other, indicating that more complex models do not necessarily produce better predictions of field-scale P loss. Our results also highlight limitations with both models and the need for continued efforts to improve their accuracy.

Seasonal Manure Application Timing and Storage Effects on Field- and Watershed-Level Phosphorus Losses

Timing of manure application to agricultural soils remains a contentious topic in nutrient management planning, particularly with regard to impacts on nutrient loss in runoff and downstream water quality. We evaluated the effects of seasonal manure application and associated manure storage capacity on phosphorus (P) losses at both field and watershed scales over an 11-yr period, using long-term observed data and an upgraded, variable-source water quality model called Topo-SWAT. At the field level, despite variation in location and crop management, manure applications throughout fall and winter increased annual total P losses by 12 to 16% and dissolved P by 19 to 40% as compared with spring. Among all field-level scenarios, total P loss was substantially reduced through better site targeting (by 48-64%), improving winter soil cover (by 25-46%), and reducing manure application rates (by 1-23%). At the watershed level, a scenario simulating 12 mo of manure storage (all watershed manure applied in spring) reduced dissolved P loss by 5% and total P loss by 2% but resulted in greater P concentrations peaks compared with scenarios simulating 6 mo (fall-spring application) or 3 mo storage (four-season application). Watershed-level impacts are complicated by aggregate effects, both spatial and temporal, of manure storage capacity on variables such as manure application rate and timing, and complexities of field and management. This comparison of the consequences of different manure storage capacities demonstrated a tradeoff between reducing annual P loss through a few high-concentration runoff events and increasing the frequency of low peaks but also increasing the annual loss.

Restructuring the P Index to Better Address P Management in New York

The New York Phosphorus Index (NY-PI) was introduced in 2001 after the release of the state's first Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) Permit that required a nutrient management plan developed in accordance with NRCS standards. The stakeholder-based approach to development of the NY-PI, combined with a requirement for all regulated farms to determine a NY-PI score for all fields, ensured widespread adoption. While P management greatly improved over time, the initial NY-PI overemphasized soil-test P (STP), allowing for P addition if STP was low, even if the risk of P transport was high. Our goal was to develop a new PI approach that incentivizes implementation of best management practices (BMPs) where P-transport risk is high, building on feedback from certified planners (survey), analysis of a planner-supplied 33,000+ field database with NY-PI information, and modeling of the impacts of specific BMPs on P runoff using data from a central NY CAFO farm. We propose a new NY-PI structure that identifies landscape-driven P-transport risk if P is surface applied when crops are not actively growing to reach a raw PI score that is multiplied by credits (factors ≤ 1.0) for implementation of BMPs effective in reducing the risk of P transport. In this "Transport × BMP" approach, STP is used as P application cutoff. This approach could reduce barriers to regionalization of PIs, as states can identify landscape risk factors, soil-test cutoffs, and BMPs while maintaining the same management categories (no manure, P-removal-based rates, or N-based management).

Evaluation of Phosphorus Site Assessment Tools: Lessons from the USA

Critical source area identification through phosphorus (P) site assessment is a fundamental part of modern nutrient management planning in the United States, yet there has been only sparse testing of the many versions of the P Index that now exist. Each P site assessment tool was developed to be applicable across a range of field conditions found in a given geographic area, making evaluation extremely difficult. In general, evaluation with in-field monitoring data has been limited, focusing primarily on corroborating manure and fertilizer "source" factors. Thus, a multiregional effort (Chesapeake Bay, Heartland, and Southern States) was undertaken to evaluate P Indices using a combination of limited field data, as well as output from simulation models (i.e., Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender, Annual P Loss Estimator, Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT], and Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool [TBET]) to compare against P Index ratings. These comparisons show promise for advancing the weighting and formulation of qualitative P Index components but require careful vetting of the simulation models. Differences among regional conclusions highlight model strengths and weaknesses. For example, the Southern States region found that, although models could simulate the effects of nutrient management on P runoff, they often more accurately predicted hydrology than total P loads. Furthermore, SWAT and TBET overpredicted particulate P and underpredicted dissolved P, resulting in correct total P predictions but for the wrong reasons. Experience in the United States supports expanded regional approaches to P site assessment, assuming closely coordinated efforts that engage science, policy, and implementation communities, but limited scientific validity exists for uniform national P site assessment tools at the present time.

Evaluation of the APEX Model to Simulate Runoff Quality from Agricultural Fields in the Southern Region of the United States

The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model has been widely applied to assess phosphorus (P) loss in runoff water and has been proposed as a model to support practical decisions regarding agricultural P management, as well as a model to evaluate tools such as the P Index. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of APEX to simulate P losses from agricultural systems to determine its potential use for refinement or replacement of the P Index in the southern region of the United States. Uncalibrated and calibrated APEX model predictions were compared against measured water quality data from row crop fields in North Carolina and Mississippi and pasture fields in Arkansas and Georgia. Calibrated models satisfactorily predicted event-based surface runoff volumes at all sites (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] > 0.47, |percent bias [PBIAS]| < 34) except Arkansas (NSE < 0.11, |PBIAS| < 50) but did not satisfactory simulate sediment, dissolved P, or total P losses in runoff water. The APEX model tended to underestimate dissolved and total P losses from fields where manure was surface applied. The model also overestimated sediments and total P loads during irrigation events. We conclude that the capability of APEX to predict sediment and P losses is limited, and consequently so is the potential for using APEX to make P management recommendations to improve P Indices in the southern United States.