Estimating Legacy Soil Phosphorus Impacts on Phosphorus Loss in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Global-to-Local Dependencies in Phosphorus Mass Flows and Markets: Pathways to Improving System Resiliency in Response to Exogenous Shocks

Uneven global distribution of phosphate rock deposits and the supply chains to transport phosphorus (P) make P fertilizers vulnerable to exogenous shocks, including commodity market shocks; extreme weather events or natural disasters; and geopolitical instability, such as trade disputes, disruption of shipping routes, and war. Understanding bidirectional risk transmission (global-to-local and local-to-global) in P supply and consumption chains is thus essential. Ignoring P system interdependencies and associated risks could have major impacts on critical infrastructure operations and increase the vulnerability of global food systems. We highlight recent unanticipated events and cascading effects that have impacted P markets globally. We discuss the need to account for exogenous shocks in local assessments of P flows, policies, and infrastructure design choices. We also provide examples of how accounting for undervalued global risks to the P industry can hasten the transition to a sustainable P future. For example, leveraging internal P recycling loops, improving plant P use efficiency, and utilizing legacy soil P all enhance system resiliency in the face of exogenous shocks and long-term anticipated threats. Strategies applied at the local level, which are embedded within national and global policy systems, can have global-scale impacts in derisking the P supply chain.

Magnesium activation affects the properties and phosphate sorption capacity of poultry litter biochar

Biochars with a high affinity for phosphorus (P) are promising soil amendments for reducing P in agricultural run-off. Poultry litter (PL) is an abundant biochar feedstock. However, PL-derived biochars are typically high in soluble P and therefore require chemical modification to become effective P sorbents. This study investigated the effect of magnesium (Mg) activation on extractable P (EP) and P sorption capacities of PL-derived biochars. Biochar was produced at 500-900 °C from PL activated with 0-1 M Mg. Three differentially aged PL feedstocks were evaluated (1-, 3-5-, and 7-9-year-old). Increased Mg activation level and pyrolysis temperature both resulted in EP reductions from the biochars. Specifically, biochars produced at temperatures ≥ 700 °C from PL activated with ≥ 0.25 M Mg had negligible EP. X-ray diffractograms indicated that increased Mg loading favored the formation of stable Mg3(PO4)2 phases while increasing temperature favored the formation of both Mg3(PO4)2 and Ca5(PO4)3OH. Maximum P sorption capacities (Pmax) of the biochars were estimated by fitting Langmuir isotherms to batch sorption data and ranged from 0.66-10.35 mg g-1. Average Pmax values were not affected by PL age or pyrolysis temperature; however, biochars produced from 1 M Mg-activated PL did have significantly higher average Pmax values (p < 0.05), likely due to a greater abundance of MgO. Overall, the results demonstrated that Mg activation is an effective strategy for producing PL-derived biochars with the potential ability to reduce P loading into environmentally sensitive ecosystems.

Updates to the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model

The Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) is a spreadsheet-based model developed for predicting annual field-scale P loss in surface runoff and changes in soil test P. This empirically based model was designed for use by those without significant modeling experience. However, a significant limitation with the model is that it does not calculate runoff. Moreover, APLE is deterministic and thus predicts a single value for a given set of inputs, thereby ignoring any uncertainties associated with model inputs. Here, we describe modifications to APLE that allow users to estimate runoff using the Curve Number method. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the updated version of APLE also provides users the ability to account for model input uncertainties in estimating model prediction errors. We provide examples of using the revised version of APLE (ver. 3.0) for calculating P loss from two fields in Mississippi over a 4-yr period and calculating the change in Mehlich-3 P concentrations over a 9-yr period at three locations in Maryland following cessation of P application. Both examples demonstrate that incorporating estimates of uncertainties in both measured data and model predictions provides modelers with a more realistic understanding of the model's performance.

Field Application of Spent Lime Water Treatment Residual for the Removal of Phosphorus and other Pollutants in Urban Stormwater Runoff

The threat of anthropogenic eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in lakes requires the development of innovative stormwater best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the external loading of phosphorus (P). This paper presents the findings of a 5-year study of a full-scale P removal structure constructed in Minnesota, USA with spent lime drinking water treatment residual (DWTR), a by-product of water softening at a local water treatment plant. Influent and effluent water samples were collected by auto-samplers during 43 storm events during the growing season. Samples were analyzed for P constituents, heavy metals, total suspended solids (TSS), and pH. Toxicity of the effluent was assessed using Ceriodaphnia dubia. Flow-weighted removal effectiveness was calculated for each storm event. Overall, the spent lime DWTR reduced total P loading by 70.9%, dissolved reactive P by 78.5%, dissolved P by 74.7%, and TSS by 58.5%. A significant reduction in heavy metals was also observed. Toxicity tests indicated the aquatic toxicity of the effluent treated with spent lime DWTR was not different from untreated stormwater. This study provided long-term real-world data that demonstrated that a full-scale P removal structure with spent lime DWTR significantly reduced P and other pollutants in stormwater discharging to an urban lake. Therefore, spent lime DWTR, which is currently treated as a waste product, is a promising filter material for stormwater treatment.

An agronomic-economic approach to connect manure nutrients back to grain-producing regions

Stakeholders for nutrient-impaired watersheds have long discussed the causes and consequences of nutrient surpluses associated with intensive livestock production. Nonetheless, nutrient surpluses relative to crop requirement, particularly with phosphorus (P), persist and continue to contribute to water quality impairment. Nutrient life-cycle analysis shows that mineral P, from soil minerals or mined fertilizer P, flows to livestock regions from grain-producing regions. Although creating a return flow of these nutrients to grain fields seems like an easy solution, significant economic obstacles exist to creating a connected manureshed over large geographic distances. To limit the impact of manure use on local surface water, state, federal, and nongovernmental actors have largely targeted their interventions in manure source areas. Even manure transport programs tend to focus on obstacles at the point of production in manure source areas. However, if we are to realize connected manuresheds that cost-effectively distribute manure nutrients beyond the current publicly funded incentive programs, we must address obstacles to manure utilization in potential sink areas that supply grain to livestock regions. Further, we can harness the power of computer-mediated market design and scientific research to build even more-effective markets that generate manure nutrient transfers of an order of magnitude that will substantively improve water quality in source areas. This manuscript offers economic insights into potential improvements to current manure nutrient relocation programs. Under the right conditions, these improvements will relocate more manure, generate more environmental benefits, and improve the profitability of most participating farmers.

Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) pho2 mutant plants hyperaccumulate phosphate

In this article, we describe a set of novel alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) plants that hyper-accumulate Phosphate ion (Pi) at levels 3- to 6-fold higher than wild-type. This alfalfa germplasm will have practical applications reclaiming Pi from contaminated or enriched soil or be used in conservation buffer strips to protect waterways from Pi run-off. Hyper-accumulating alfalfa plants were generated by targeted mutagenesis of PHOSPHATE2 (PHO2) using newly created CRISPR/Cas9 reagents and an improved mutant screening strategy. PHO2 encodes a ubiquitin conjugating E2 enzyme (UBC24) previously characterized in Arabidopsis thaliana, Medicago truncatula, and Oryza sativa. Mutations of PHO2 disrupt Pi homeostasis resulting in Pi hyper-accumulation. Successful CRISPR/Cas9 editing of PHO2 demonstrates that this is an efficient mutagenesis tool in alfalfa despite its complex autotetraploid genome structure. Arabidopsis and M. truncatula ortholog genes were used to identify PHO2 haplotypes in outcrossing tetraploid M. sativa with the aim of generating heritable mutations in both PHO2-like genes (PHO2-B and PHO2-C). After delivery of the reagent and regeneration from transformed leaf explants, plants with mutations in all haplotypes of PHO2-B and PHO2-C were identified. These plants were evaluated for morphology, Pi accumulation, heritable transmission of targeted mutations, segregation of mutant haplotypes and removal of T-DNA(s). The Agrobacterium-mediated transformation assay and gene editing reagents reported here were also evaluated for further optimization for future alfalfa functional genomic studies.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for predicted soil test phosphorus using the Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator model

In this study we conducted a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model focusing on model predictions of soil test phosphorus (STP). We calculated and evaluated the sensitivity coefficients of predicted STP and changes in STP using 1- and 10-yr simulations with and without P application. We also compared two methods for estimating prediction uncertainties: first-order variance approximation (FOVA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, we compared uncertainties in APLE-predicted STP with uncertainties in measured STP collected from multiple sites in Maryland under different manuring and cropping treatments. Results from our sensitivity analysis showed that predicted STP and changes in STP for 1-yr simulations without P inputs were most sensitive to initial STP, whereas model STP predictions were most sensitive to manure and fertilizer application rates when sensitivity analyses included P inputs. For the 10-yr simulations without P application inputs, the range in sensitivity coefficients for crop uptake and precipitation were much greater than for the 1-yr simulations. Prediction uncertainties from FOVA were comparable to those from MCS for model input uncertainties up to 50%. Using FOVA to calculate APLE STP prediction uncertainties using the Maryland data set, the mean measured STP for nearly all site years fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the STP prediction uncertainties. Our results provide users of APLE insight into what model inputs require the most careful measurement when using the model to predict changes in STP under conditions of P drawdown (i.e., no P application) or P buildup.

Source contribution to phosphorus loads from the Maumee River watershed to Lake Erie

Coastal eutrophication is a leading cause of degraded water quality around the world. Identifying the sources and their relative contributions to impaired downstream water quality is an important step in developing management plans to address water quality concerns. Recent mass-balance studies of Total Phosphorus (TP) loads of the Maumee River watershed highlight the considerable phosphorus contributions of non-point sources, including agricultural sources, degrading regional downstream water quality. This analysis builds upon these mass-balance studies by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the movement of phosphorus from manure, inorganic fertilizer, point sources, and soil sources, and respective loads of TP and Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus (DRP). This yields a more explicit estimation of source contribution from the watershed. Model simulations indicate that inorganic fertilizers contribute a greater proportion of TP (45% compared to 8%) and DRP (58% compared to 12%) discharged from the watershed than manure sources in the March-July period, the season driving harmful algal blooms. Although inorganic fertilizers contributed a greater mass of TP and DRP than manure sources, the two sources had similar average delivery fractions of TP (2.7% for inorganic fertilizers vs. 3.0% for manure sources) as well as DRP (0.7% for inorganic fertilizers vs. 1.2% for manure sources). Point sources contributed similar proportions of TP (5%) and DRP (12%) discharged in March-July as manure sources. Soil sources of phosphorus contributed over 40% of the March-July TP load and 20% of the March-July DRP load from the watershed to Lake Erie. Reductions of manures and inorganic fertilizers corresponded to a greater proportion of phosphorus delivered from soil sources of phosphorus, indicating that legacy phosphorus in soils may need to be a focus of management efforts to reach nutrient load reduction goals. In agricultural watersheds aground the world, including the Maumee River watershed, upstream nutrient management should not focus solely on an individual nutrient source; rather a comprehensive approach involving numerous sources should be undertaken.

Less Agricultural Phosphorus Applied in 2019 Led to Less Dissolved Phosphorus Transported to Lake Erie

Extreme precipitation events affect water quantity and quality in various regions of the world. Heavy precipitation in 2019 resulted in a record high area of unplanted agricultural fields in the U.S. and especially in the Maumee River Watershed (MRW). March-July phosphorus (P) loads from the MRW drive harmful algal bloom (HAB) severity in Lake Erie; hence changes in management that influence P export can ultimately affect HAB severity. In this study, we found that the 2019 dissolved reactive P (DRP) load from March-July was 29% lower than predicted, while the particulate P (PP) load was similar to the predicted value. Furthermore, the reduced DRP load resulted in a less severe HAB than predicted based on discharge volume. The 29% reduction in DRP loss in the MRW occurred with a 62% reduction in applied P, emphasizing the strong influence of recently applied P and subsequent incidental P losses on watershed P loading. Other possible contributing factors to this reduced load include lower precipitation intensity, altered tillage practices, and effects of fallow soils, but more data is needed to assess their importance. We recommend conservation practices focusing on P application techniques and timing and improving resiliency against extreme precipitation events.

Modeling of phosphorus loss from field to watershed: A review

Phosphorus (P) losses from nonpoint sources into surface water resources through surface runoff and tile drainage play a significant role in eutrophication. Accordingly, the number of studies involving the modeling of agricultural P losses, the uncertainties of such models, and the best management practices (BMPs) supported by the modeling of hypothetical P loss reduction scenarios has increased significantly around the world. Many improvements have been made to these models: separate manure P pools, variable source areas allowing the determination of critical source areas of P loss, analyses of modeling uncertainties, and understanding of legacy P. However, several elements are still missing or have yet to be sufficiently addressed: the incorporation of preferential flow into models, the modification of P sorption-desorption processes considering recent research data (e.g., pedotransfer functions for labile, active, or stable P, along with P sorption coefficients), BMP parameterization, and scale-up issues, as well as stakeholder-scientist and experimentalist-modeler interactions. The accuracy of P loss modeling can be improved by (a) incorporating dynamic P sorption-desorption processes and new P subroutines for direct P loss from manure, fertilizer, and dung, (b) modeling preferential flow, connectivity between field and adjacent water bodies, and P in-stream processes, (c) including an assessment of model uncertainty, (d) integrating field and watershed models for BMP calibration and scaling field results up to larger areas, and (e) building a holistic interaction between stakeholders, experimentalists, and modelers.

Ranking connectivity risk for phosphorus loss along agricultural drainage ditches

Agricultural drainage systems comprising both in-field pipe drains and surface ditches are typically installed to remove excess water from agricultural land. These drainage networks can provide connectivity between phosphorus (P) sources and surface waters thereby increasing the risk of P loss to rivers and streams. The objective of this study was to derive a farm-scale drainage ranking that categorises drainage ditches in terms of P loss risk based on connectivity and physic-chemical characteristics. Ten pilot farms were selected to characterise drainage networks through ground survey and, sediment and water sampling. Five drainage ditch categories were derived based on landscape setting and connectivity. Each category recorded soluble and reactive P concentrations above environmental water quality standards. To assess the risk of surface ditches as a connectivity vector between agricultural P and surface waters ditches were ranked in order of P loss risk by integrating landscape position and sediment P chemistry. Elevated sediment P with high equilibrium P concentration (EPCo) were associated with ditches connected to farm yards, and in sediment sampled at ditch outlets, suggesting P deposition over time indicative of a legacy P source. The greatest risk of P loss was attributed to ditches connecting farm yards to streams, and ditches that connected the drainage network to surface waters, or Outlets. These results rank connectivity risk for P loss along agricultural drainage ditches for farm level risk assessment to target P loss mitigation measures to the appropriate locations.

Performance of Field-Scale Phosphorus Removal Structures Utilizing Steel Slag for Treatment of Subsurface Drainage

Reducing dissolved phosphorus (P) losses from legacy P soils to surface waters is necessary for preventing algal blooms. Phosphorus removal structures containing steel slag have shown success in treating surface runoff for dissolved P, but little is known about treating subsurface (tile) drainage. A ditch-style and subsurface P removal structure were constructed using steel slag in a bottom-up flow design for treating tile drainage. Nearly 97% of P was delivered during precipitation-induced flow events (as opposed to baseflow) with inflow P concentrations increasing with flow rate. Structures handled flow rates approximately 12 L s−1, and the subsurface and ditch structures removed 19.2 (55%) and 0.9 kg (37%) of the cumulative dissolved P load, respectively. Both structures underperformed relative to laboratory flow-through experiments and exhibited signs of flow inhibition with time. Dissolved P removal decreased dramatically when treated water pH decreased <8.5. Although slag has proven successful for treating surface runoff, we hypothesize that underperformance in this case was due to tile drainage bicarbonate consumption of slag calcium through the precipitation of calcium carbonate, thereby filling pore space, decreasing flow and pH, and preventing calcium phosphate precipitation. We do not recommend non-treated steel slag for removing dissolved P from tile drainage unless slag is replaced every 4–6 months.

Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios

Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014-2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

A Global Perspective on Integrated Strategies to Manage Soil Phosphorus Status for Eutrophication Control without Limiting Land Productivity

Unnecessary accumulation of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils continues to degrade water quality and linked ecosystem services. Managing both soil loss and soil P fertility status is therefore crucial for eutrophication control, but the relative environmental benefits of these two mitigation measures, and the timescales over which they occur, remain unclear. To support policies toward reduced P loadings from agricultural soils, we examined the impact of soil conservation and lowering of soil test P (STP) in different regions with intensive farming (Europe, the United States, and Australia). Relationships between STP and soluble reactive P concentrations in land runoff suggested that eutrophication control targets would be more achievable if STP concentrations were kept at or below the current recommended threshold values for fertilizer response. Simulations using the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model in three contrasting catchments predicted total P losses ranging from 0.52 to 0.88 kg ha depending on soil P buffering and erosion vulnerability. Drawing down STP in all catchment soils to the threshold optimum for productivity reduced catchment P loss by between 18 and 40%, but this would take between 30 and 40+ years. In one catchment, STP drawdown was more effective in reducing P loss than erosion control, but combining both strategies was always the most effective and more rapid than erosion control alone. By accounting for both soil P buffering interactions and erosion vulnerability, the APLE model quickly provided reliable information on the magnitude and time frame of P loss reduction that can be realistically expected from soil and STP management. Greater precision in the sampling, analysis, and interpretation of STP, and more technical innovation to lower agronomic optimum STP concentrations on farms, is needed to foster long-term sustainable management of soil P fertility in the future.

Impacts of Soil Phosphorus Drawdown on Snowmelt and Rainfall Runoff Water Quality

Managing P export from agricultural land is critical to address freshwater eutrophication. However, soil P management, and options to draw down soil P have received little attention in snowmelt-dominated regions because of limited interaction between soil and snowmelt. Here, we assessed the impacts of soil P drawdown (reducing fertilizer P inputs combined with harvest removal) on soil Olsen P dynamics, runoff P concentrations, and crop yields from 1997 to 2014 in paired fields in Manitoba, Canada. We observed that Olsen P concentrations in the 0- to 5-cm soil layer were negatively correlated with the cumulative P depletion and declined rapidly at the onset of the drawdown practice (3.1 to 5.4 mg kg yr during 2007-2010). In both snowmelt runoff and rainfall runoff, concentrations of total dissolved P (TDP) were positively correlated with the concentrations of soil Olsen P. Soil P drawdown to low to moderate fertility levels significantly decreased mean annual flow-weighted TDP concentrations in snowmelt runoff from 0.60 to 0.30 mg L in the field with high initial soil P and from 1.17 to 0.42 mg L in the field with very high initial soil P. Declines in TDP concentration in rainfall runoff were greater. Critically, yields of wheat ( spp.) and canola ( L.) were not affected by soil P depletion. In conclusion, we demonstrate that relatively rapid reductions in P loads are achievable at the field scale via managing P inputs and soil P pools, highlighting a management opportunity that can maintain food security while improving water security in cold regions.