Hydrologic Extremes and Legacy Sources Can Override Efforts to Mitigate Nutrient and Sediment Losses at the Catchment Scale

Climate change accelerates water and biogeochemical cycles in temperate agricultural catchments

Climate change is expected to significantly deteriorate water quality in heavily managed agricultural landscapes, however, the exact mechanisms of these impacts are unknown. In this study we adopted a modelling approach to predict the multiple effects of climate change on hydrological and biogeochemical responses for dominant solutes and particulates in two agriculture-dominated temperate headwater catchments. We used climatic projections from three climatic models to simulate future flows, mobilisation and delivery of solutes and particulates. This allowed an examination of potential drivers by identifying changes in flow pathway distribution and key environmental variables. We found that future climate conditions will lead to a general increase in stream discharge as well as higher concentrations and loads of solutes and particulates. However, unlike previous studies, we observed a higher magnitude of change during the warmer part of the year. These changes will reduce the relative importance of winter flows on solute and particulate transport, leading to both higher and more evenly distributed concentrations and loads between seasons. We linked these changes to the higher importance of superficial flow pathways of tile and surface runoff driven by more rapid transition from extremely wet to dry conditions. Overall, the observed increase in solute and particulate mobilisation and delivery will lead to widespread water quality deterioration. Mitigation of this deterioration would require adequate management efforts to address the direct and indirect negative effects on stream biota and water scarcity.

Mitigating glyphosate levels in surface waters: Long-term assessment in an agricultural catchment in Belgium

The increasing concern over pesticide pollution in water bodies underscores the need for effective mitigation strategies to support the transition towards sustainable agriculture. This study assesses the effectiveness of landscape mitigation strategies, specifically vegetative buffer strips, in reducing glyphosate loads at the catchment scale under realistic conditions. Conducted over six years (2014-2019) in a small agricultural region in Belgium, our research involved the analysis of 732 water samples from two monitoring stations, differentiated by baseflow and event-driven sampling, and before (baseline) and after the implementation of mitigation measures. The results indicated a decline in both the number and intensity of point source losses over the years. Additionally, there was a general decrease in load intensity; however, the confluence of varying weather conditions (notably dry years during the mitigation period) and management practices (the introduction of buffer strips) posed challenges for a statistically robust evaluation of each contributing factor. A reduction of loads was measured when comparing mitigation with baseline, although this reduction is not statistically significant. Glyphosate loads during rainfall events correlated with a rainfall index and runoff ratio. Overall, focusing the mitigation strategy on runoff and erosion was a valid approach. Nevertheless, challenges remain, as evidenced by the continuous presence of glyphosate in baseflow conditions, highlighting the complex dynamics of pesticide transport. The study concludes that while progress has been made towards reducing pesticide pollution, the complexity of interacting factors necessitates further research. Future directions should focus on enhancing farmer engagement in mitigation programs and developing experiments with more intense data collection that help to assess underlying dynamics of pesticide pollution and the impact of mitigation strategies in more detail, contributing towards the goal of reducing pesticide pollution in water bodies.

Recognizing Agricultural Headwaters as Critical Ecosystems

Agricultural headwaters are positioned at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and, therefore, at the margins of scientific disciplines. They are deemed devoid of biodiversity and too polluted by ecologists, overlooked by hydrologists, and are perceived as a nuisance by landowners and water authorities. While agricultural streams are widespread and represent a major habitat in terms of stream length, they remain understudied and thereby undervalued. Agricultural headwater streams are significantly modified and polluted but at the same time are the critical linkages among land, air, and water ecosystems. They exhibit the largest variation in streamflow, water quality, and greenhouse gas emission with cascading effects on the entire stream networks, yet they are underrepresented in monitoring, remediation, and restoration. Therefore, we call for more intense efforts to characterize and understand the inherent variability and sensitivity of these ecosystems to global change drivers through scientific and regulatory monitoring and to improve their ecosystem conditions and functions through purposeful and evidence-based remediation.

Value and limitations of machine learning in high-frequency nutrient data for gap-filling, forecasting, and transport process interpretation

High-frequency monitoring of water quality in catchments brings along the challenge of post-processing large amounts of data. Moreover, monitoring stations are often remote and technical issues resulting in data gaps are common. Machine learning algorithms can be applied to fill these gaps, and to a certain extent, for predictions and interpretation. The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate six different machine learning models for gap-filling in a high-frequency nitrate and total phosphorus concentration time series, (2) to showcase the potential added value (and limitations) of machine learning to interpret underlying processes, and (3) to study the limits of machine learning algorithms for predictions outside the training period. We used a 4-year high-frequency dataset from a ditch draining one intensive dairy farm in the east of The Netherlands. Continuous time series of precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, discharge, turbidity, and nitrate or total phosphorus were used as predictors for total phosphorus and nitrate concentrations respectively. Our results showed that the random forest algorithm had the best performance to fill in data-gaps, with R² higher than 0.92 and short computation times. The feature importance helped understanding the changes in transport processes linked to water conservation measures and rain variability. Applying the machine learning model outside the training period resulted in a low performance, largely due to system changes (manure surplus and water conservation) which were not included as predictors. This study offers a valuable and novel example of how to use and interpret machine learning models for post-processing high-frequency water quality data.

Transport-limited kinetics of phosphate retention on iron-coated sand and practical implications

Iron-coated sand (ICS) is a by-product from drinking water treatment made of sand coated with ferric iron (hydr)oxides. It is considered a suitable material for large-scale measures for phosphate removal from natural and agricultural waters to prevent eutrophication. Previous studies demonstrated that the residence time of water must be very long to reach equilibrium partitioning between phosphate and ICS but specifics for application are missing. First, SEM-EDX images were used to support the conceptual assumption that P adsorption inside the coating is a transport-limited process. Second, a conceptual model of phosphate adsorption was proposed considering two types of sites: one type with fast adsorption kinetics and reaching equilibrium with the percolating solution, and another type for which adsorption is also reversible but described by pseudo-first-order kinetics. The latter is conceived to account for transport-limited adsorption in the interior of the coating while the former fraction of sites is assumed to be easily accessible and located close to the grain surface. Third, the kinetics of phosphate adsorption on ICS were quantitatively determined to describe and predict phosphate retention in filters under various flow conditions. The model was calibrated and validated with long-term column experiments, which lasted for 3500 h to approach equilibrium on the slowly reacting sites. The model reproduced the outflowing phosphate concentrations: the pronounced increase after a few pore volumes and the slow increase over the remaining part of the experiment. The parameterized model was also able to predict the time evolution of phosphate concentrations in the outflow of column experiments with different flow velocities, flow interruption, and in desorption experiments. The equilibrium partition coefficient for the experimental conditions was identified as 28.1 L/g-Fe at pH 6.8 and a phosphate concentration of 1.7 mg-P / L. The optimized first-order mass transfer coefficient for the slow adsorption process was 1.56 10^-4 h^-1, implying that the slow adsorption process has a time scale of several months. However, based on the parameterized model, the slow adsorption process accounted for 95.5% of the equilibrium adsorption capacity, emphasizing the potential relevance of this process for practical applications. The implications for the design, operation, and lifespan of ICS filters are exemplarily illustrated for different scenarios.

Advances in Catchment Science, Hydrochemistry, and Aquatic Ecology Enabled by High-Frequency Water Quality Measurements

High-frequency water quality measurements in streams and rivers have expanded in scope and sophistication during the last two decades. Existing technology allows in situ automated measurements of water quality constituents, including both solutes and particulates, at unprecedented frequencies from seconds to subdaily sampling intervals. This detailed chemical information can be combined with measurements of hydrological and biogeochemical processes, bringing new insights into the sources, transport pathways, and transformation processes of solutes and particulates in complex catchments and along the aquatic continuum. Here, we summarize established and emerging high-frequency water quality technologies, outline key high-frequency hydrochemical data sets, and review scientific advances in key focus areas enabled by the rapid development of high-frequency water quality measurements in streams and rivers. Finally, we discuss future directions and challenges for using high-frequency water quality measurements to bridge scientific and management gaps by promoting a holistic understanding of freshwater systems and catchment status, health, and function.

Advancing Watershed Legacy Nitrogen Modeling to Improve Global Water Quality

Despite widespread implementation of watershed nitrogen reduction programs across the globe, nitrogen levels in many surface waters remain high. Watershed legacy nitrogen storage, i.e., the long-term retention of nitrogen in soils and groundwater, is one of several explanations for this lack of progress. However scientists and water managers are ill-equipped to estimate how legacy nitrogen moderates in-stream nitrogen responses to land conservation practices, largely because modeling tools and associated long-term monitoring approaches to answering these questions remain inadequate. We demonstrate the need for improved watershed models to simulate legacy nitrogen processes and offer modeling solutions to support long-term nitrogen-based sustainable land management across the globe.

Landscape patterns of catchment and land-use regulate legacy phosphorus releases in subtropical mixed agricultural and woodland catchments

Landscape composition and configuration determine the exchange of matter and energy among different landscape patches and may affect riverine phosphorus (P) exports derived from watershed legacy sources. However, a lack of understanding of landscape pattern effects on legacy P releases has yielded large uncertainties in mitigating watershed water quality using management practices or landscape planning. This study revealed the significance of legacy effect in the headwater catchments through the time-lag response of the long-term trend of river P exports to the change of net anthropogenic P input (NAPI). By constructing empirical statistical models that incorporated NAPI, hydroclimatic, terrain factors, soil chemical properties, and land use variables, the sources of annual riverine total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) exports were divided into current annual NAPI input and legacy sources inputs. The model estimations indicated that the contribution of legacy sources to riverine TP exports was 0.33-1.12 kg ha^-1 yr^-1 (50.7-82.8%), which was significantly higher than the contribution to DIP exports (0.18-0.49 kg ha^-1 yr^-1, 42.4-81.4%) in 2012-2017. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variance partitioning analysis (VPA) methods were used to quantify the relative contribution of landscape patterns, soil P content, and terrain factors to legacy P releases. Results revealed that the relative contribution of the landscape composition and configuration to the total variations of legacy P releases was greater than that of the soil P and terrain factors. For different land use patches, a large area of woodland with a high aggregation degree and a large area of ponds with multiple net structures may significantly alleviate legacy P releases. In contrast, the legacy P releases were significantly positively associated with highly aggregated agricultural, tea plantation, and residential patches. This study provides theoretical support for strategies aiming to control legacy P from the perspective of landscape planning.

What is the deal with the Green Deal: Will the new strategy help to improve European freshwater quality beyond the Water Framework Directive?

Agricultural land use covers almost half of the EU territory and reducing nutrient and pesticide losses to freshwaters is central to existing EU policy. However, the progress of improving freshwater quality and reducing eutrophication is slow and lags behind targets. The Green Deal is a key element of the EU plans to implement the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we discuss the opportunities that the Green Deal and associated strategies may provide for the achievement of the water quality goals of the Water Framework Directive in agricultural landscapes. We welcome Green Deal's aspirational stated goals. However, the reliance of mitigation of diffuse agricultural pollution on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy represents grave risks for practical implementation and the achievement of the Green Deal objectives. We also argue that the new strategies should be targeted at tackling and understanding the sources of water quality problems along the full pollution continuum. To maximise the opportunities for tackling diffuse pollution from agricultural land use and achieving the delayed water quality targets, we stress that a range of targeted new instruments will be needed to close the gaps in the pollution continuum 'from source to impact'. These gaps include: (I) smart and standardised monitoring of the impacts of proposed eco-schemes and agri-environment-climate measures, (ii) active restoration of agricultural streams and ditches and their floodplains to reduce secondary pollution sources, (iii) options to draw down nutrient levels to or below the agronomic optimum that reduce legacy sources, (iv) integrating farm-scale and catchment-scale analysis of trade-offs in reducing different pollutants and their combined effects, and finally (v) accounting for emerging pressures to freshwater quality due to climate change. Incorporation of the pollution continuum framework into tackling diffuse agricultural pollution will ensure that the European water-related policy goals are achieved.

The implications of lag times between nitrate leaching losses and riverine loads for water quality policy

Understanding the lag time between land management and impacts on riverine nitrate–nitrogen (N) loads is critical to understand when action to mitigate nitrate–N leaching losses from the soil profile may start improving water quality. These lags occur due to leaching of nitrate–N through the subsurface (soil and groundwater). Actions to mitigate nitrate–N losses have been mandated in New Zealand policy to start showing improvements in water quality within five years. We estimated annual rates of nitrate–N leaching and annual nitrate–N loads for 77 river catchments from 1990 to 2018. Lag times between these losses and riverine loads were determined for 34 catchments but could not be determined in other catchments because they exhibited little change in nitrate–N leaching losses or loads. Lag times varied from 1 to 12 years according to factors like catchment size (Strahler stream order and altitude) and slope. For eight catchments where additional isotope and modelling data were available, the mean transit time for surface water at baseflow to pass through the catchment was on average 2.1 years less than, and never greater than, the mean lag time for nitrate–N, inferring our lag time estimates were robust. The median lag time for nitrate–N across the 34 catchments was 4.5 years, meaning that nearly half of these catchments wouldn’t exhibit decreases in nitrate–N because of practice change within the five years outlined in policy.

Critical Review of Polyphosphate and Polyphosphate Accumulating Organisms for Agricultural Water Quality Management

Despite ongoing management efforts, phosphorus (P) loading from agricultural landscapes continues to impair water quality. Wastewater treatment research has enhanced our knowledge of microbial mechanisms influencing P cycling, especially regarding microbes known as polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) that store P as polyphosphate (polyP) under oxic conditions and release P under anoxic conditions. However, there is limited application of PAO research to reduce agricultural P loading and improve water quality. Herein, we conducted a meta-analysis to identify articles in Web of Science on polyP and its use by PAOs across five disciplines (i.e., wastewater treatment, terrestrial, freshwater, marine, and agriculture). We also summarized research that provides preliminary support for PAO-mediated P cycling in natural habitats. Terrestrial, freshwater, marine, and agriculture disciplines had fewer polyP and PAO articles compared to wastewater treatment, with agriculture consistently having the least. Most meta-analysis articles did not overlap disciplines. We found preliminary support for PAOs in natural habitats and identified several knowledge gaps and research opportunities. There is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research linking PAOs, polyP, and oxygen availability with existing knowledge of P forms and cycling mechanisms in natural and agricultural environments to improve agricultural P management strategies and achieve water quality goals.

Hydrological and Chemical Controls on Nutrient and Contaminant Loss to Water in Agricultural Landscapes

Nutrient and contaminant losses in agricultural landscapes are directly controlled by hydrological (flow pathways), chemical (sorption, speciation and transformations), biological processes (fixation, uptake) and indirectly by demographic (growing population), economic (food production) and societal drivers (individual attitudes, farming tradition) that control how agricultural landscapes are managed [...]

Phosphorus mirabilis: Illuminating the Past and Future of Phosphorus Stewardship

After its discovery in 1669, phosphorus (P) was named ("the miraculous bearer of light"), arising from the chemoluminescence when white P is exposed to the atmosphere. The metaphoric association between P and light resonates through history: from the discovery of P at the start of the Enlightenment period to the vital role of P in photosynthetic capture of light in crop and food production through to new technologies, which seek to capitalize on the interactions between novel ultrathin P allotropes and light, including photocatalysis, solar energy production, and storage. In this introduction to the special section "Celebrating the 350th Anniversary of Discovering Phosphorus-For Better or Worse," which brings together 22 paper contributions, we shine a spotlight on the historical and emerging challenges and opportunities in research and understanding of the agricultural, environmental, and societal significance of this vital element. We highlight the role of P in water quality impairment and the variable successes of P mitigation measures. We reflect on the need to improve P use efficiency and on the kaleidoscope of challenges facing efficient use of P. We discuss the requirement to focus on place-based solutions for developing effective and lasting P management. Finally, we consider how cross-disciplinary collaborations in P stewardship offer a guiding light for the future, and we explore the glimmers of hope for reconnecting our broken P cycle and the bright new horizons needed to ensure future food, water, and bioresource security for growing global populations.