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Archer L, Relton SD, Akbari A, Best K, Bucknall M, Conroy S, Hattle M, Hollinghurst J, Humphrey S, Lyons RA, Richards S, Walters K, West R, van der Windt D, Riley RD, Clegg A. Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults. Age Ageing 2024; 53:afae057. [PMID: 38520142 PMCID: PMC10960070 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afae057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Falls are common in older adults and can devastate personal independence through injury such as fracture and fear of future falls. Methods to identify people for falls prevention interventions are currently limited, with high risks of bias in published prediction models. We have developed and externally validated the eFalls prediction model using routinely collected primary care electronic health records (EHR) to predict risk of emergency department attendance/hospitalisation with fall or fracture within 1 year. METHODS Data comprised two independent, retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥65 years: the population of Wales, from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (model development); the population of Bradford and Airedale, England, from Connected Bradford (external validation). Predictors included electronic frailty index components, supplemented with variables informed by literature reviews and clinical expertise. Fall/fracture risk was modelled using multivariable logistic regression with a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator penalty. Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and clinical utility. Apparent, internal-external cross-validation and external validation performance were assessed across general practices and in clinically relevant subgroups. RESULTS The model's discrimination performance (c-statistic) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.68 to 0.76) on internal-external cross-validation and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83) on external validation. Calibration was variable across practices, with some over-prediction in the validation population (calibration-in-the-large, -0.87; 95% CI: -0.96 to -0.78). Clinical utility on external validation was improved after recalibration. CONCLUSION The eFalls prediction model shows good performance and could support proactive stratification for falls prevention services if appropriately embedded into primary care EHR systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucinda Archer
- Institute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Samuel D Relton
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Kate Best
- Academic Unit for Ageing and Stroke Research, University of Leeds, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK
| | | | - Simon Conroy
- Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, London, UK
| | - Miriam Hattle
- Institute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Joe Hollinghurst
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Sara Humphrey
- Bradford District and Craven Health and Care Partnership, Bradford, UK
| | - Ronan A Lyons
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Suzanne Richards
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Kate Walters
- Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert West
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Richard D Riley
- Institute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Andrew Clegg
- Academic Unit for Ageing and Stroke Research, University of Leeds, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK
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Rommers E, Petrovic M, de Pauw R, Van Bladel A, Cambier D. The Belgian physiotherapy reimbursement criteria for fall prevention fails in screening appropriately fall-prone community-dwelling older adults. Acta Clin Belg 2024; 79:5-11. [PMID: 37815372 DOI: 10.1080/17843286.2023.2268916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The incidence of falling in older adults has remained unchanged over the past decades, despite evidence-based prevention initiatives. Therefore, it is appropriate to reflect on the current screening approach for preventive initiatives. The objective of this study was to determine whether the multifactorial algorithm proposed by Lusardi et al. (2017) exhibits superior predictive validity compared to the currently employed algorithm by the Belgian National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (NIHDI). METHODS The current study includes a secondary analysis of data collected from a falls-related study in the Department of Rehabilitation Sciences at Ghent University to compare the predictive validity of the two algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to ascertain which algorithm is more accurate. RESULTS The database included a total of 94 community-dwelling older adults (mean age 76 years ±7.4, 35% male). Thirty-nine participants experienced at least one fall in the 8 month follow up. Lusardi's approach has a higher sensitivity score (89.7% compared to 10.3%) and negative predictive value (89.9% compared to 61.1%), but a lower specificity score (61.8% compared to 100%) and positive predictive value (62.2% compared to 100%) than the NIHDI approach. The AUC is 0.76 for Lusardi's approach and 0.55 for the NIHDI approach. CONCLUSION The use of the multifactorial algorithm proposed by Lusardi et al. may be significant and more accurate in identifying adults at risk to falls. Further research is needed particularly with a larger, more heterogenous group of older adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellis Rommers
- Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium
- Department Motor Rehabilitation, GZA Sint-Vincentius, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Mirko Petrovic
- Department of Internal Medicine and Paediatrics, Section of Geriatrics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Robby de Pauw
- Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Anke Van Bladel
- Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Dirk Cambier
- Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium
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Tejeda CJ, Garabedian PM, Rice H, Samal L, Latham NK, Dykes PC. Development and Usability Testing of an Exercise-Based Primary Care Fall Prevention Clinical Decision Support Tool. AMIA ... ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM PROCEEDINGS. AMIA SYMPOSIUM 2024; 2023:699-708. [PMID: 38222393 PMCID: PMC10785844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
For older patients, falls are the leading cause offatal and nonfatal injuries. Guidelines recommend that at-risk older adults are referred to appropriate fall-prevention exercise programs, but many do not receive support for fall-risk management in the primary care setting. Advances in health information technology may be able to address this gap. This article describes the development and usability testing of a clinical decision support (CDS) tool for fall prevention exercise. Using rapid qualitative analysis and human-centered design, our team developed and tested the usability of our CDS prototype with primary care team members. Across 31 Health-Information Technology Usability Evaluation Scale surveys, our CDS prototype received a median score of 5.0, mean (SD) of 4.5 (0.8), and a range of 4.1-4.9. This study highlights the features and usability offall prevention CDS for helping primary care providers deliver patient-centeredfall prevention care.
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van Scherpenseel MC, te Velde SJ, Veenhof C, Emmelot-Vonk MH, Barten JA. Contextual determinants influencing the implementation of fall prevention in the community: a scoping review. FRONTIERS IN HEALTH SERVICES 2023; 3:1138517. [PMID: 37249947 PMCID: PMC10210634 DOI: 10.3389/frhs.2023.1138517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/07/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Background Successful implementation of multifactorial fall prevention interventions (FPIs) is essential to reduce increasing fall rates in community-dwelling older adults. However, implementation often fails due to the complex context of the community involving multiple stakeholders within and across settings, sectors, and organizations. As there is a need for a better understanding of the occurring context-related challenges, the current scoping review purposes to identify what contextual determinants (i.e., barriers and facilitators) influence the implementation of FPIs in the community. Methods A scoping review was performed using the Arksey and O'Malley framework. First, electronic databases (Pubmed, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, PsycINFO) were searched. Studies that identified contextual determinants that influence the implementation of FPIs in the community were included. Second, to both validate the findings from the literature and identify complementary determinants, health and social care professionals were consulted during consensus meetings (CMs) in four districts in the region of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Data were analyzed following a directed qualitative content analysis approach, according to the 39 constructs of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. Results Fourteen relevant studies were included and 35 health and social care professionals (such as general practitioners, practice nurses, and physical therapists) were consulted during four CMs. Directed qualitative content analysis of the included studies yielded determinants within 35 unique constructs operating as barriers and/or facilitators. The majority of the constructs (n = 21) were identified in both the studies and CMs, such as "networks and communications", "formally appointed internal implementation leaders", "available resources" and "patient needs and resources". The other constructs (n = 14) were identified only in the . Discussion Findings in this review show that a wide array of contextual determinants are essential in achieving successful implementation of FPIs in the community. However, some determinants are considered important to address, regardless of the context where the implementation occurs. Such as accounting for time constraints and financial limitations, and considering the needs of older adults. Also, broad cross-sector collaboration and coordination are required in multifactorial FPIs. Additional context analysis is always an essential part of implementation efforts, as contexts may differ greatly, requiring a locally tailored approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- M. C. van Scherpenseel
- Research Group Innovation of Human Movement Care, Research Center for Healthy and Sustainable Living, HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - S. J. te Velde
- Research Group Innovation of Human Movement Care, Research Center for Healthy and Sustainable Living, HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - C. Veenhof
- Research Group Innovation of Human Movement Care, Research Center for Healthy and Sustainable Living, HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Rehabilitation, Physiotherapy Science and Sport, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - M. H. Emmelot-Vonk
- Department of Geriatrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - J. A. Barten
- Research Group Innovation of Human Movement Care, Research Center for Healthy and Sustainable Living, HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Rehabilitation, Physiotherapy Science and Sport, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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Melchiorre MG, D’Amen B, Quattrini S, Lamura G, Socci M. Health Emergencies, Falls, and Use of Communication Technologies by Older People with Functional and Social Frailty: Ageing in Place in Deprived Areas of Italy. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:14775. [PMID: 36429499 PMCID: PMC9691100 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192214775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2022] [Revised: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Frail older people ageing alone in place need help to perform daily living activities, especially when functional limitations are increasing and formal/informal supports are lacking. This context represents a risk of experiencing health emergencies, in particular falls. It is thus important to understand how seniors manage these potential difficulties and who helps them. The present study aimed to explore these dimensions in Italy, where 120 qualitative interviews were carried out in 2019 within the "Inclusive ageing in place" (IN-AGE) research project, involving frail older people living alone at home. A content analysis was conducted. Results showed that seniors need to manage health emergencies regarding heart and breathing problems but mainly episodes of falls are reported, with consequent fractures and fear of falling again. In several cases, the use of a mobile phone was crucial in order to seek for help, and the first to intervene were children, in addition to some neighbors. Some seniors also referred their ability to call independently the General Practitioner (GP) or the emergency room, in order to not disturb family members. These findings highlight new useful insights for policy makers, regarding health emergencies prevention and management measures to put in place, especially concerning falls, and the support provided by communication technologies.
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