Development of a prediction model for pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes using logistic regression and artificial neural network models

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in adults with new-onset diabetes: development and internal-external validation of a clinical risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that people aged 60+ years with newly diagnosed diabetes and weight loss undergo abdominal imaging to assess for pancreatic cancer. More nuanced stratification could lead to enrichment of these referral pathways.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study of adults aged 30-85 years at type 2 diabetes diagnosis (2010-2021) using the QResearch primary care database in England linked to secondary care data, the national cancer registry and mortality registers. Clinical prediction models were developed to estimate risks of pancreatic cancer diagnosis within 2 years and evaluated using internal-external cross-validation.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and sixty-seven of 253,766 individuals were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 2 years. Models included age, sex, BMI, prior venous thromboembolism, digoxin prescription, HbA1c, ALT, creatinine, haemoglobin, platelet count; and the presence of abdominal pain, weight loss, jaundice, heartburn, indigestion or nausea (previous 6 months). The Cox model had the highest discrimination (Harrell's C-index 0.802 (95% CI: 0.797-0.817)), the highest clinical utility, and was well calibrated. The model's highest 1% of predicted risks captured 12.51% of pancreatic cancer cases. NICE guidance had 3.95% sensitivity.

DISCUSSION

A new prediction model could have clinical utility in identifying individuals with recent onset diabetes suitable for fast-track abdominal imaging.

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND AND AIM

People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

Employing nano-enabled artificial intelligence (AI)-based smart technologies for prediction, screening, and detection of cancer

Cancer has been classified as a diverse illness with a wide range of subgroups. Its early identification and prognosis, which have become a requirement of cancer research, are essential for clinical treatment. Patients have already benefited greatly from the use of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) algorithms in the field of healthcare. AI simulates and combines data, pre-programmed rules, and knowledge to produce predictions. Data are used to improve efficiency across several pursuits and tasks through the art of ML. DL is a larger family of ML methods based on representational learning and simulated neural networks. Support vector machines, convulsion neural networks, and artificial neural networks, among others, have been widely used in cancer research to construct prediction models that enable precise and effective decision-making. Although using these innovative methods can enhance our comprehension of how cancer progresses, further validation is required before these techniques can be used in routine clinical practice. We cover contemporary methods used in the modelling of cancer development in this article. The presented prediction models are built using a variety of guided ML approaches, as well as numerous input attributes and data collections. Early identification and cost-effective detection of cancer's progression are equally necessary for successful treatment of the disease. Smart material-based detection techniques can give end consumers a portable, affordable instrument to easily detect and monitor their health issues without the need for specialized knowledge. Owing to their cost-effectiveness, excellent sensitivity, multimodal detection capacity, and miniaturization aptitude, two-dimensional (2D) materials have a lot of prospects for clinical examination of various compounds as well as cancer biomarkers. The effectiveness of traditional devices is moving faster towards more useful techniques thanks to developments in 2D material-based biosensors/sensors. The most current developments in the design of 2D material-based biosensors/sensors-the next wave of cancer screening instruments-are also outlined in this article.

Exploring the application and future outlook of Artificial intelligence in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer, an exceptionally malignant tumor of the digestive system, presents a challenge due to its lack of typical early symptoms and highly invasive nature. The majority of pancreatic cancer patients are diagnosed when curative surgical resection is no longer possible, resulting in a poor overall prognosis. In recent years, the rapid progress of Artificial intelligence (AI) in the medical field has led to the extensive utilization of machine learning and deep learning as the prevailing approaches. Various models based on AI technology have been employed in the early screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic prediction of pancreatic cancer patients. Furthermore, the development and application of three-dimensional visualization and augmented reality navigation techniques have also found their way into pancreatic cancer surgery. This article provides a concise summary of the current state of AI technology in pancreatic cancer and offers a promising outlook for its future applications.

An Integrative Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Model in the UK Biobank

Pancreatic cancer (PaCa) is a lethal cancer with an increasing incidence, highlighting the need for early prevention strategies. There is a lack of a comprehensive PaCa predictive model derived from large prospective cohorts. Therefore, we have developed an integrated PaCa risk prediction model for PaCa using data from the UK Biobank, incorporating lifestyle-related, genetic-related, and medical history-related variables for application in healthcare settings. We used a machine learning-based random forest approach and a traditional multivariable logistic regression method to develop a PaCa predictive model for different purposes. Additionally, we employed dynamic nomograms to visualize the probability of PaCa risk in the prediction model. The top five influential features in the random forest model were age, PRS, pancreatitis, DM, and smoking. The significant risk variables in the logistic regression model included male gender (OR = 1.17), age (OR = 1.10), non-O blood type (OR = 1.29), higher polygenic score (PRS) (Q5 vs. Q1, OR = 2.03), smoking (OR = 1.82), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.27), pancreatitis (OR = 3.99), diabetes (DM) (OR = 2.57), and gallbladder-related disease (OR = 2.07). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the logistic regression model is 0.78. Internal validation and calibration performed well in both models. Our integrative PaCa risk prediction model with the PRS effectively stratifies individuals at future risk of PaCa, aiding targeted prevention efforts and supporting community-based cancer prevention initiatives.

A novel prediction model of the risk of pancreatic cancer among diabetes patients using multiple clinical data and machine learning

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer is associated with poor prognosis. Considering the increased global incidence of diabetes cases and that individuals with diabetes are considered a high-risk subpopulation for pancreatic cancer, it is critical to detect the risk of pancreatic cancer within populations of person living = with diabetes. This study aimed to develop a novel prediction model for pancreatic cancer risk among patients with diabetes, using = a real-world database containing clinical features and employing numerous artificial intelligent approach algorithms.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study analyzed data on patients with Type 2 diabetes from a multisite Taiwanese EMR database between 2009 and 2019. Predictors were selected in accordance with the literature review and clinical perspectives. The prediction models were constructed using machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, gradient boosting machine, and random forest.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 66,384 patients. The Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model generated the highest AUROC of 0.9073, followed by the Voting Ensemble and Gradient Boosting machine models. LDA, the best model, exhibited an accuracy of 84.03%, a sensitivity of 0.8611, and a specificity of 0.8403. The most significant predictors identified for pancreatic cancer risk were glucose, glycated hemoglobin, hyperlipidemia comorbidity, antidiabetic drug use, and lipid-modifying drug use.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully developed a highly accurate 4-year risk model for pancreatic cancer in patients with diabetes using real-world clinical data and multiple machine-learning algorithms. Potentially, our predictors offer an opportunity to identify pancreatic cancer early and thus increase prevention and invention windows to impact survival in diabetic patients.

Early Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer via Machine Learning Analysis of a National Electronic Medical Record Database

PURPOSE

Pancreatic cancer (PaC) is often diagnosed at advanced stages, resulting in one of the lowest survival rates among patients with cancer. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether machine learning (ML) models can predict with high sensitivity and specificity an increased risk for PaC ahead of clinical diagnosis.

METHODS

Optum deidentified electronic health record (EHR) data set was used to extract 1-year data for each patient and to sample for PaC diagnosis, the number of interactions with the health care system, and unique demographic and clinical features. Data for patients with PaC diagnosis were collected between 1 and 2 years before the diagnosis. Standard binary classification ML models were used on training and testing data sets. Data analyses were performed using the scikit-learn package version 1.0.1.

RESULTS

The data set consisted of 18,987 patient EHRs collected between December 31, 2007, and December 31, 2017. EHRs with 10 unique features and at least three health care interactions were used for model training (N = 15,189; n = 8,438 [56%] with PaC) and testing (N = 3,798; n = 2,127 [56%] with PaC). The ensemble model achieved an AUC of 0.89, a sensitivity of 85.61%, and a specificity of 76.18% on the testing data set and produced superior results compared with other binary classifiers. Increasing unique health care interactions to nine failed to improve the AUC score. When the testing data set was enlarged to 5,696 patients, the ensemble model achieved an AUC of 0.92 and a specificity of 93.21%, but the sensitivity was compromised.

CONCLUSION

The ensemble model exceeded the state-of-the-art level of performance for prediction of PaC ahead of clinical diagnosis with a minimal clinically guided input, providing a potential strategy for selection of high-risk patients for further screening.

Studying infant mortality: A demographic analysis based on data mining models

Child mortality, particularly among infants below 5 years, is a significant community well-being concern worldwide. The health sector's top priority in emerging states is to minimize children's death and enhance infant health. Despite a substantial decrease in worldwide deaths of children below 5 years, it remains a significant community well-being concern. Children under five years of age died at 37 per 1,000 live birth globally in 2020. However, in underdeveloped countries such as Pakistan and Ethiopia, the fatality rate of children per 1,000 live birth is 65.2 and 48.7, respectively, making it challenging to reduce. Predictive analytics approaches have become well-known for predicting future trends based on previous data and extracting meaningful patterns and connections between parameters in the healthcare industry. As a result, the objective of this study was to use data mining techniques to categorize and highlight the important causes of infant death. Datasets from the Pakistan Demographic Health Survey and the Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey revealed key characteristics in terms of factors that influence child mortality. A total of 12,654 and 12,869 records from both datasets were examined using the Bayesian network, tree (J-48), rule induction (PART), random forest, and multi-level perceptron techniques. On both datasets, various techniques were evaluated with the aforementioned classifiers. The best average accuracy of 97.8% was achieved by the best model, which forecasts the frequency of child deaths. This model can therefore estimate the mortality rates of children under five years in Ethiopia and Pakistan. Therefore, an online model to forecast child death based on our research is urgently needed and will be a useful intervention in healthcare.

Role of Therapeutic Endoscopic Ultrasound in Management of Pancreatic Cancer: An Endoscopic Oncologist Perspective

Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal disease with an aggressive clinical course. Patients with pancreatic cancer are usually asymptomatic until significant progression of their disease. Additionally, there are no effective screening guidelines for pancreatic cancer in the general population. This leads to a delay in diagnosis and treatment, resulting in poor clinical outcomes and low survival rates. Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS) is an indispensable tool for the diagnosis and staging of pancreatic cancer. In the modern era, with exponential advancements in technology and device innovation, EUS is also being increasingly used in a variety of therapeutic interventions. In the context of pancreatic cancer where therapies are limited due to the advanced stage of the disease at diagnosis, EUS-guided interventions offer new and innovative options. Moreover, due to their minimally invasive nature and ability to provide real-time images for tumor localization and therapy, they are associated with fewer complication rates compared to conventional open and laparoscopic approaches. In this article, we detail the most current and important therapeutic applications of EUS for pancreatic cancer, namely EUS-guided Fine Needle Injections, EUS-guided Radiotherapy, and EUS-guided Ablations. Furthermore, we also discuss the feasibility and safety profile of each intervention in patients with pancreatic cancer to provide gastrointestinal medical oncologists, radiation and surgical oncologists, and therapeutic endoscopists with valuable information to facilitate patient discussions and aid in the complex decision-making process.

Six degrees of freedom intrafraction cranial motion detection using a novel capacitive monitoring technique: evaluation with human subjects

The purpose of this work is to introduce and evaluate a capacitive monitoring array capable of continuous 6DOF cranial motion detection during high precision radiotherapy. The ring-shaped capacitive array consists of four equally sized conductive sensors positioned at the cranial vertex. The system is modular, non-contact, and provides continuous motion information through the thermoplastic immobilization mask without relying on skin monitoring or use of ionizing radiation. The array performance was evaluated through a volunteer study with a cohort of twenty-five individuals. The study was conducted in a linac suite and the volunteers were fitted with an S-frame thermoplastic mask. Each volunteer took part in one data acquisition session per day for three consecutive days. During the data acquisition, the conductive array was translated and rotated relative to their immobilized cranium in 1-millimetre and 1-degree steps to simulate cranial motion. Capacitive signals were collected at each position at a frequency of 20 Hz. The data from the first acquisition session was then used to train a classifier model and establish calibration equations. The classifier and calibration equations were then applied to data from the subsequent acquisition sessions to evaluate the system performance. The trained classifiers had an average success rate of 92.6% over the volunteer cohort. The average error associated with calibration had a mean value below 0.1 mm or 0.1 deg for all six motions. The capacitive array system provides a novel method to detect translational and rotational cranial motion through a thermoplastic mask.

Risk Assessment and Cholangiocarcinoma: Diagnostic Management and Artificial Intelligence

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is the second most common primary liver tumor, with a median survival of only 13 months. Surgical resection remains the only curative therapy; however, at first detection, only one-third of patients are at an early enough stage for this approach to be effective, thus rendering early diagnosis as an efficient approach to improving survival. Therefore, the identification of higher-risk patients, whose risk is correlated with genetic and pre-cancerous conditions, and the employment of non-invasive-screening modalities would be appropriate. For several at-risk patients, such as those suffering from primary sclerosing cholangitis or fibropolycystic liver disease, the use of periodic (6-12 months) imaging of the liver by ultrasound (US), magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)/cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), or computed tomography (CT) in association with serum CA19-9 measurement has been proposed. For liver cirrhosis patients, it has been proposed that at-risk iCCA patients are monitored in a similar fashion to at-risk HCC patients. The possibility of using Artificial Intelligence models to evaluate higher-risk patients could favor the diagnosis of these entities, although more data are needed to support the practical utility of these applications in the field of screening. For these reasons, it would be appropriate to develop screening programs in the research protocols setting. In fact, the success of these programs reauires patient compliance and multidisciplinary cooperation.

Risk Assessment and Pancreatic Cancer: Diagnostic Management and Artificial Intelligence

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the deadliest cancers, and it is responsible for a number of deaths almost equal to its incidence. The high mortality rate is correlated with several explanations; the main one is the late disease stage at which the majority of patients are diagnosed. Since surgical resection has been recognised as the only curative treatment, a PC diagnosis at the initial stage is believed the main tool to improve survival. Therefore, patient stratification according to familial and genetic risk and the creation of screening protocol by using minimally invasive diagnostic tools would be appropriate. Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are subsets of lesions which deserve special management to avoid overtreatment. The current PC screening programs are based on the annual employment of magnetic resonance imaging with cholangiopancreatography sequences (MR/MRCP) and/or endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS). For patients unfit for MRI, computed tomography (CT) could be proposed, although CT results in lower detection rates, compared to MRI, for small lesions. The actual major limit is the incapacity to detect and characterize the pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) by EUS and MR/MRCP. The possibility of utilizing artificial intelligence models to evaluate higher-risk patients could favour the diagnosis of these entities, although more data are needed to support the real utility of these applications in the field of screening. For these motives, it would be appropriate to realize screening programs in research settings.

Clinical Prediction Models for Pancreatic Cancer in General and At-Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Identifying high-risk individuals using a risk prediction model could be a crucial first stage of screening pathways to improve the early detection of pancreatic cancer. A systematic review was conducted to critically evaluate the published primary literature on the development or validation of clinical risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer risk.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for relevant articles from the inception of each database up to November 2021. Study selection and data extraction were conducted by 2 independent reviewers. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was applied to assess risk of bias.

RESULTS

In total, 33 studies were included, describing 38 risk prediction models. Excluding studies with an overlapping population, this study consist of 15,848,100 participants, of which 58,313 were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Eight studies externally validated their model, and 13 performed internal validation. The studies described risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer in the general population (n = 14), patients with diabetes (n = 8), and individuals with gastrointestinal (and other) symptoms (symptoms included abdominal pain, unexplained weight loss, jaundice, and change in bowel habits and indigestion; n = 11). The commonly used clinical risk factors in the model were cigarette smoking (n = 27), age (n = 25), diabetes history (n = 22), chronic pancreatitis (n = 18), and body mass index (n = 14). In the 25 studies that assessed model performance, C-statistics ranged from 0.61 to 0.98. Of the 33 studies included, 6 were rated as being at a low risk of bias based on PROBAST.

DISCUSSION

Many clinical risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer had been developed for different target populations. Although low risk-of-bias studies were identified, these require external validation and implementation studies to ensure that these will benefit clinical decision making.

Artificial Intelligence in Endoscopic Ultrasound for Pancreatic Cancer: Where Are We Now and What Does the Future Entail?

Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the United States (US), the overall 5-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer during the 2012-2018 period was 11.5%. However, the cancer stage at diagnosis strongly influences relative survival in these patients. Per the National Cancer Institute (NCI) statistics for 2012-2018, the 5-year relative survival rate for patients with localized disease was 43.9%, while it was 3.1% for patients with distant metastasis. The poor survival rates are primarily due to the late development of clinical signs and symptoms. Hence, early diagnosis is critical in improving treatment outcomes. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has gained immense popularity in gastroenterology. AI-assisted endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) models have been touted as a breakthrough in the early detection of pancreatic cancer. These models may also accurately differentiate pancreatic cancer from chronic pancreatitis and autoimmune pancreatitis, which mimics pancreatic cancer on radiological imaging. In this review, we detail the application of AI-assisted EUS models for pancreatic cancer detection. We also highlight the utility of AI-assisted EUS models in differentiating pancreatic cancer from radiological mimickers. Furthermore, we discuss the current limitations and future applications of AI technology in EUS for pancreatic cancers.

Model-based screening for pancreatic cancer in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Detecting pancreatic cancer at an earlier stage may contribute to an increased survival. Patients with stage I pancreatic cancer have a 5-year survival rate of 36%, while stage IV patients have a 5-year survival rate of 1% in Sweden. Research into novel blood-based biomarkers for pancreatic cancer is highly intensive and innovative, but has yet to result in any routine screening test. The aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity and sensitivity of a hypothetical blood test for pancreatic cancer used for screening purposes and the economic aspects of testing.

METHOD

A model of a screening test was created, with varying specificity and sensitivity both set at 80%, 85%, 90%, 95% or 99% and applied to selected risk groups. Excessive costs of false positive screening outcomes, QALYs, ICERs and total costs were calculated.

RESULTS

Individuals with family history and genetic mutations associated with pancreatic cancer, new-onset diabetes ≥50 years of age and early symptoms had the highest positive predictive values and ICERs beneath the willingness-to-pay-level of EUR 100,000/QALY. Screening of the general population and smokers resulted in a high rate of false positive cases and extensive extra costs.

CONCLUSIONS

General screening for pancreatic cancer is not cost-effective, while screening of certain high-risk groups may be economically justified given the availability of a high-performing blood-based test.

Artificial Intelligence for the Prediction and Early Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer: Scoping Review (Preprint).. [DOI: 10.2196/preprints.44248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is the 12th most common cancer worldwide, with an overall survival rate of 4.9%. Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is essential for timely treatment and survival. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides advanced models and algorithms for better diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to explore AI models used for the prediction and early diagnosis of pancreatic cancers as reported in the literature.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted and reported in line with the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines. PubMed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, BioRXiv, and MedRxiv were explored to identify relevant articles. Study selection and data extraction were independently conducted by 2 reviewers. Data extracted from the included studies were synthesized narratively.

RESULTS

Of the 1185 publications, 30 studies were included in the scoping review. The included articles reported the use of AI for 6 different purposes. Of these included articles, AI techniques were mostly used for the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer (14/30, 47%). Radiological images (14/30, 47%) were the most frequently used data in the included articles. Most of the included articles used data sets with a size of <1000 samples (11/30, 37%). Deep learning models were the most prominent branch of AI used for pancreatic cancer diagnosis in the studies, and the convolutional neural network was the most used algorithm (18/30, 60%). Six validation approaches were used in the included studies, of which the most frequently used approaches were k-fold cross-validation (10/30, 33%) and external validation (10/30, 33%). A higher level of accuracy (99%) was found in studies that used support vector machine, decision trees, and k-means clustering algorithms.

CONCLUSIONS

This review presents an overview of studies based on AI models and algorithms used to predict and diagnose pancreatic cancer patients. AI is expected to play a vital role in advancing pancreatic cancer prediction and diagnosis. Further research is required to provide data that support clinical decisions in health care.

Classification Performance of Neural Networks Versus Logistic Regression Models: Evidence From Healthcare Practice

Machine learning encompasses statistical approaches such as logistic regression (LR) through to more computationally complex models such as neural networks (NN). The aim of this study is to review current published evidence for performance from studies directly comparing logistic regression, and neural network classification approaches in medicine.

A literature review was carried out to identify primary research studies which provided information regarding comparative area under the curve (AUC) values for the overall performance of both LR and NN for a defined clinical healthcare-related problem. Following an initial search, articles were reviewed to remove those that did not meet the criteria and performance metrics were extracted from the included articles. Teh initial search revealed 114 articles; 21 studies were included in the study. In 13/21 (62%) of cases, NN had a greater AUC compared to LR, but in most the difference was small and unlikely to be of clinical significance; (unweighted mean difference in AUC 0.03 (95% CI 0-0.06) in favour of NN versus LR.

In the majority of cases examined across a range of clinical settings, LR models provide reasonable performance that is only marginally improved using more complex methods such as NN. In many circumstances, the use of a relatively simple LR model is likely to be adequate for real-world needs but in specific circumstances in which large amounts of data are available, and where even small increases in performance would provide significant management value, the application of advanced analytic tools such as NNs may be indicated.

Diagnostic Value of Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Endoscopic Ultrasound for Pancreatic Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

We performed a meta-analysis of published data to investigate the diagnostic value of artificial intelligence for pancreatic cancer. Systematic research was conducted in the following databases: PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science to identify relevant studies up to October 2021. We extracted or calculated the number of true positives, false positives true negatives, and false negatives from the selected publications. In total, 10 studies, featuring 1871 patients, met our inclusion criteria. The risk of bias in the included studies was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. R and RevMan 5.4.1 software were used for calculations and statistical analysis. The studies included in the meta-analysis did not show an overall heterogeneity (I² = 0%), and no significant differences were found from the subgroup analysis. The pooled diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 0.92 (95% CI, 0.89–0.95) and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.83–0.94), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.95, and the diagnostic odds ratio was 128.9 (95% CI, 71.2–233.8), indicating very good diagnostic accuracy for the detection of pancreatic cancer. Based on these promising preliminary results and further testing on a larger dataset, artificial intelligence-assisted endoscopic ultrasound could become an important tool for the computer-aided diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.

Application of artificial intelligence to pancreatic adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the deadliest cancers worldwide although substantial advancement has been made in its comprehensive treatment. The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has allowed its clinical applications to expand remarkably in recent years. Diverse methods and algorithms are employed by AI to extrapolate new data from clinical records to aid in the treatment of PC. In this review, we will summarize AI's use in several aspects of PC diagnosis and therapy, as well as its limits and potential future research avenues.

METHODS

We examine the most recent research on the use of AI in PC. The articles are categorized and examined according to the medical task of their algorithm. Two search engines, PubMed and Google Scholar, were used to screen the articles.

RESULTS

Overall, 66 papers published in 2001 and after were selected. Of the four medical tasks (risk assessment, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis prediction), diagnosis was the most frequently researched, and retrospective single-center studies were the most prevalent. We found that the different medical tasks and algorithms included in the reviewed studies caused the performance of their models to vary greatly. Deep learning algorithms, on the other hand, produced excellent results in all of the subdivisions studied.

CONCLUSIONS

AI is a promising tool for helping PC patients and may contribute to improved patient outcomes. The integration of humans and AI in clinical medicine is still in its infancy and requires the in-depth cooperation of multidisciplinary personnel.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains the most lethal type of cancer. The 5-year survival rate for patients with early-stage diagnosis can be as high as 20%, suggesting that early diagnosis plays a pivotal role in the prognostic improvement of PDAC cases. In the medical field, the broad availability of biomedical data has led to the advent of the "big data" era. To overcome this deadly disease, how to fully exploit big data is a new challenge in the era of precision medicine. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a machine to learn and display intelligence to solve problems. AI can help to transform big data into clinically actionable insights more efficiently, reduce inevitable errors to improve diagnostic accuracy, and make real-time predictions. AI-based omics analyses will become the next alterative approach to overcome this poor-prognostic disease by discovering biomarkers for early detection, providing molecular/genomic subtyping, offering treatment guidance, and predicting recurrence and survival. Advances in AI may therefore improve PDAC survival outcomes in the near future. The present review mainly focuses on recent advances of AI in PDAC for clinicians. We believe that breakthroughs will soon emerge to fight this deadly disease using AI-navigated precision medicine.

Directly and Simultaneously Expressing Absolute and Relative Treatment Effects in Medical Data Models and Applications

Logistic regression is widely used in the analysis of medical data with binary outcomes to study treatment effects through (absolute) treatment effect parameters in the models. However, the indicative parameters of relative treatment effects are not introduced in logistic regression models, which can be a severe problem in efficiently modeling treatment effects and lead to the wrong conclusions with regard to treatment effects. This paper introduces a new enhanced logistic regression model that offers a new way of studying treatment effects by measuring the relative changes in the treatment effects and also incorporates the way in which logistic regression models the treatment effects. The new model, called the Absolute and Relative Treatment Effects (AbRelaTEs) model, is viewed as a generalization of logistic regression and an enhanced model with increased flexibility, interpretability, and applicability in real data applications than the logistic regression. The AbRelaTEs model is capable of modeling significant treatment effects via an absolute or relative or both ways. The new model can be easily implemented using statistical software, with the logistic regression model being treated as a special case. As a result, the classical logistic regression models can be replaced by the AbRelaTEs model to gain greater applicability and have a new benchmark model for more efficiently studying treatment effects in clinical trials, economic developments, and many applied areas. Moreover, the estimators of the coefficients are consistent and asymptotically normal under regularity conditions. In both simulation and real data applications, the model provides both significant and more meaningful results.

Pancreatic Cancer Survival Prediction: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art

Cancer early detection increases the chances of survival. Some cancer types, like pancreatic cancer, are challenging to diagnose or detect early, and the stages have a fast progression rate. This paper presents the state-of-the-art techniques used in cancer survival prediction, suggesting how these techniques can be implemented in predicting the overall survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cancer (pdac) patients. Because of bewildering and high volumes of data, the recent studies highlight the importance of machine learning (ML) algorithms like support vector machines and convolutional neural networks. Studies predict pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cancer (pdac) survival is within the limits of 41.7% at one year, 8.7% at three years, and 1.9% at five years. There is no significant correlation found between the disease stages and the overall survival rate. The implementation of ML algorithms can improve our understanding of cancer progression. ML methods need an appropriate level of validation to be considered in everyday clinical practice. The objective of these techniques is to perform classification, prediction, and estimation. Accurate predictions give pathologists information on the patient's state, surgical treatment to be done, optimal use of resources, individualized therapy, drugs to prescribe, and better patient management.

A New Dawn for the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Pancreatology

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming an essential tool in the medical field as well as in daily life. Recent developments in deep learning, a subfield of AI, have brought remarkable advances in image recognition, which facilitates improvement in the early detection of cancer by endoscopy, ultrasonography, and computed tomography. In addition, AI-assisted big data analysis represents a great step forward for precision medicine. This review provides an overview of AI technology, particularly for gastroenterology, hepatology, and pancreatology, to help clinicians utilize AI in the near future.

Risk Prediction of Barrett's Esophagus in a Taiwanese Health Examination Center Based on Regression Models

Determining the target population for the screening of Barrett's esophagus (BE), a precancerous condition of esophageal adenocarcinoma, remains a challenge in Asia. The aim of our study was to develop risk prediction models for BE using logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. Their predictive performances were compared. We retrospectively analyzed 9646 adults aged ≥20 years undergoing upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at a health examinations center in Taiwan. Evaluated by using 10-fold cross-validation, both models exhibited good discriminative power, with comparable area under curve (AUC) for the LR and ANN models (Both AUC were 0.702). Our risk prediction models for BE were developed from individuals with or without clinical indications of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The models have the potential to serve as a practical tool for identifying high-risk individuals of BE among the general population for endoscopic screening.

Artificial intelligence for early detection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma: The future is promising

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a worldwide public health concern. Despite extensive research efforts toward improving diagnosis and treatment, the 5-year survival rate at best is approximately 15%. This dismal figure can be attributed to a variety of factors including lack of adequate screening methods, late symptom onset, and treatment resistance. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma remains a grim diagnosis with a high mortality rate and a significant psy-chological burden for patients and their families. In recent years artificial intelligence (AI) has permeated the medical field at an accelerated pace, bringing potential new tools that carry the promise of improving diagnosis and treatment of a variety of diseases. In this review we will summarize the landscape of AI in diagnosis and treatment of PDAC.

Representation of EHR data for predictive modeling: a comparison between UMLS and other terminologies

OBJECTIVE

Predictive disease modeling using electronic health record data is a growing field. Although clinical data in their raw form can be used directly for predictive modeling, it is a common practice to map data to standard terminologies to facilitate data aggregation and reuse. There is, however, a lack of systematic investigation of how different representations could affect the performance of predictive models, especially in the context of machine learning and deep learning.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We projected the input diagnoses data in the Cerner HealthFacts database to Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) and 5 other terminologies, including CCS, CCSR, ICD-9, ICD-10, and PheWAS, and evaluated the prediction performances of these terminologies on 2 different tasks: the risk prediction of heart failure in diabetes patients and the risk prediction of pancreatic cancer. Two popular models were evaluated: logistic regression and a recurrent neural network.

RESULTS

For logistic regression, using UMLS delivered the optimal area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) results in both dengue hemorrhagic fever (81.15%) and pancreatic cancer (80.53%) tasks. For recurrent neural network, UMLS worked best for pancreatic cancer prediction (AUROC 82.24%), second only (AUROC 85.55%) to PheWAS (AUROC 85.87%) for dengue hemorrhagic fever prediction.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

In our experiments, terminologies with larger vocabularies and finer-grained representations were associated with better prediction performances. In particular, UMLS is consistently 1 of the best-performing ones. We believe that our work may help to inform better designs of predictive models, although further investigation is warranted.

Early detection of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is most frequently detected at an advanced stage. Such late detection restricts treatment options and contributes to a dismal 5-year survival rate of 3-15%. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is relatively uncommon and screening of the asymptomatic adult population is not feasible or recommended with current modalities. However, screening of individuals in high-risk groups is recommended. Here, we review groups at high risk for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, including individuals with inherited predisposition and patients with pancreatic cystic lesions. We discuss studies aimed at finding ways of identifying pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in high-risk groups, such as among individuals with new-onset diabetes mellitus and people attending primary and secondary care practices with symptoms that suggest this cancer. We review early detection biomarkers, explore the potential of using social media for detection, appraise prediction models developed using electronic health records and research data, and examine the application of artificial intelligence to medical imaging for the purposes of early detection.

Logistic regression has similar performance to optimised machine learning algorithms in a clinical setting: application to the discrimination between type 1 and type 2 diabetes in young adults

BACKGROUND

There is much interest in the use of prognostic and diagnostic prediction models in all areas of clinical medicine. The use of machine learning to improve prognostic and diagnostic accuracy in this area has been increasing at the expense of classic statistical models. Previous studies have compared performance between these two approaches but their findings are inconsistent and many have limitations. We aimed to compare the discrimination and calibration of seven models built using logistic regression and optimised machine learning algorithms in a clinical setting, where the number of potential predictors is often limited, and externally validate the models.

METHODS

We trained models using logistic regression and six commonly used machine learning algorithms to predict if a patient diagnosed with diabetes has type 1 diabetes (versus type 2 diabetes). We used seven predictor variables (age, BMI, GADA islet-autoantibodies, sex, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride) using a UK cohort of adult participants (aged 18-50 years) with clinically diagnosed diabetes recruited from primary and secondary care (n = 960, 14% with type 1 diabetes). Discrimination performance (ROC AUC), calibration and decision curve analysis of each approach was compared in a separate external validation dataset (n = 504, 21% with type 1 diabetes).

RESULTS

Average performance obtained in internal validation was similar in all models (ROC AUC ≥ 0.94). In external validation, there were very modest reductions in discrimination with AUC ROC remaining ≥ 0.93 for all methods. Logistic regression had the numerically highest value in external validation (ROC AUC 0.95). Logistic regression had good performance in terms of calibration and decision curve analysis. Neural network and gradient boosting machine had the best calibration performance. Both logistic regression and support vector machine had good decision curve analysis for clinical useful threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

Logistic regression performed as well as optimised machine algorithms to classify patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. This study highlights the utility of comparing traditional regression modelling to machine learning, particularly when using a small number of well understood, strong predictor variables.

Low ambient temperatures correlate with increased risk of hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes: An ecological study in Taiwan

Little evidence is available about the relationship between ambient temperatures and hypoglycemia in Taiwan. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate whether there is an association between ambient temperatures and hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes.An ecological study was conducted to analyze the type 2 diabetes dataset of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program. Every episode of hypoglycemia diagnosed at emergency department among subjects with type 2 diabetes was identified monthly between 2006 and 2013. Average monthly ambient temperatures in Celsius between 2006 and 2013 were measured according to the database of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan.The incidence rates of hypoglycemia were higher during the period of cold ambient temperatures (from December to March) than the period of warm ambient temperatures (from April to November). The peak period of hypoglycemia always occurred in winter months (January and February).Patients with type 2 diabetes in Taiwan are more susceptible to hypoglycemia during the period of cold ambient temperatures, particularly in winter months. Clinicians in Taiwan should remind patients to make a preventive strategy for hypoglycemia during the periods of cold ambient temperatures.

PDAC-ANN: an artificial neural network to predict pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma based on gene expression

BACKGROUND

Although the pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) presents high mortality and metastatic potential, there is a lack of effective therapies and a low survival rate for this disease. This PDAC scenario urges new strategies for diagnosis, drug targets, and treatment.

METHODS

We performed a gene expression microarray meta-analysis of the tumor against normal tissues in order to identify differentially expressed genes (DEG) shared among all datasets, named core-genes (CG). We confirmed the CG protein expression in pancreatic tissue through The Human Protein Atlas. It was selected five genes with the highest area under the curve (AUC) among these proteins with expression confirmed in the tumor group to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to classify samples.

RESULTS

This microarray included 461 tumor and 187 normal samples. We identified a CG composed of 40 genes, 39 upregulated, and one downregulated. The upregulated CG included proteins and extracellular matrix receptors linked to actin cytoskeleton reorganization. With the Human Protein Atlas, we verified that fourteen genes of the CG are translated, with high or medium expression in most of the pancreatic tumor samples. To train our ANN, we selected the best genes (AHNAK2, KRT19, LAMB3, LAMC2, and S100P) to classify the samples based on AUC using mRNA expression. The network classified tumor samples with an f1-score of 0.83 for the normal samples and 0.88 for the PDAC samples, with an average of 0.86. The PDAC-ANN could classify the test samples with a sensitivity of 87.6 and specificity of 83.1.

CONCLUSION

The gene expression meta-analysis and confirmation of the protein expression allow us to select five genes highly expressed PDAC samples. We could build a python script to classify the samples based on RNA expression. This software can be useful in the PDAC diagnosis.

Nomogram for Predicting Risk of Digestive Carcinoma Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

PURPOSE

Digestive carcinomas remain a major health burden worldwide and are closely related to type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a digestive carcinoma risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals among those with type 2 diabetes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The prediction model was developed in a primary cohort that consisted of 655 patients with type 2 diabetes. Data were collected from November 2013 to December 2018. Clinical parameters and demographic characteristics were analyzed by logistic regression to develop a model to predict the risk of digestive carcinomas; then, a nomogram was constructed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. The results were internally validated by a bootstrapping procedure. The independent validation cohort consisted of 275 patients from January 2019 to December 2019.

RESULTS

Predictors in the prediction nomogram included sex, age, insulin use, and body mass index. The model showed good discrimination (C-index 0.747 [95% CI, 0.718-0.791]) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.541). The nomogram showed similar discrimination in the validation cohort (C-index 0.706 [95% CI, 0.682-0.755]) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.418). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram would be clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

We developed a low-cost and low-risk model based on clinical and demographic parameters to help identify patients with type 2 diabetes who might benefit from digestive cancer screening.

Pancreatic Cancer Prediction Through an Artificial Neural Network

Early detection of pancreatic cancer is challenging because cancer-specific symptoms occur only at an advanced stage, and a reliable screening tool to identify high-risk patients is lacking. To address this challenge, an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed, trained, and tested using the health data of 800,114 respondents captured in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and Pancreatic, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian cancer (PLCO) datasets, together containing 898 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Prediction of pancreatic cancer risk was assessed at an individual level by incorporating 18 features into the neural network. The established ANN model achieved a sensitivity of 87.3 and 80.7%, a specificity of 80.8 and 80.7%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 and 0.85 for the training and testing cohorts, respectively. These results indicate that our ANN can be used to predict pancreatic cancer risk with high discriminatory power and may provide a novel approach to identify patients at higher risk for pancreatic cancer who may benefit from more tailored screening and intervention.