Prognostic role of a new inflammatory index with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and lactate dehydrogenase (CII: Colon Inflammatory Index) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: results from the randomized Italian Trial in Advanced Colorectal Cancer (ITACa) study

A Long-term Survival Risk Prediction Model for Patients with Superficial Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objectives: Given the data regarding the long-term prognosis of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC) is still lacking, we aimed to identify reliable prognostic factors and establish a high-precision prognosis model for patients with SESCC. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients with SESCC at a high-volume tertiary medical center. The primary outcome was disease-specific survival (DSS) at the end of follow-up (minimum of 29 months). Independent prognostic factors including innovative hematological and clinicopathological parameters were identified using comprehensive and novel statistical methods including best subset regression (BSR), the univariate and multivariate Cox analysis, lasso regression, and a dynamic nomogram model was established. Results: A total of 1,171 patients were finally enrolled. The median follow-up time is 83 months (range 29-149 months). Ten independent prognostic risk factors for a poor DSS were identified as follows: male (P=0.127), higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (P=0.006), poorly differentiated tumor (P<0.001), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (P<0.001), lymph node metastasis (LNM) (P<0.001), additional treatment (P=0.007), neutrophils over 32.2x109/L (P=0.003), red blood cell (RBC) lower than 4.45x1012/L (P<0.001), hemoglobin (Hb) lower than or equal to 98 g/L (P=0.023), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) higher than 3.24 ng/ml (P=0.034). Subsequently, an online dynamic nomogram was established (https://yryouzu-tools.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/). This prediction model showed favourable discrimination ability (area under the curve (AUC) was 0.913 (95% CI: 88.0 - 94.6) and a well-fitted calibration curve. Conclusions: We successfully established a long-term prognosis model for SESCC, which can be applied to effectively predict survival risks for patients, thus strengthening follow-up strategies.

Inflammatory indices as prognostic markers in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with chemotherapy plus Bevacizumab

Background

Validated predictors of sensitivity or resistance to Bevacizumab (Bev) are not available, and Inflammatory Indexes (IIs) has been reported to be useful prognostic factors in various malignant solid tumours, including metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

Objectives

To explore the prognostic value of IIs in mCRC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy plus Bev.

Design

One hundred and eighty-two patients diagnosed with mCRC and treated with first line chemotherapy plus Bev were considered for this prospective non-pharmacological study. Neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet, aspartate transaminase (AST) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) tests were carried out at baseline and before each treatment cycle, according to clinical practice.

Methods

Pre-treatment Systemic Immune-inflammation Index (SII), Colon Inflammatory Index (CII) and Aspartate aminotransferase-Lymphocyte Ratio Index (ALRI) were evaluated to assess a correlation with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).

Results

In the overall population, PFS and OS were lower in patients with high SII (HR 1.64, p = 0.006 and HR 1.75, p = 0.004, respectively) and high ALRI (HR 2.13, p = 0.001 and HR 1.76, p = 0.02, respectively), but no difference was detected according to CII value. The multivariate analysis confirmed both SII and ALRI as independent prognostic factors for PFS (HR 1.64 and 2.82, respectively) and OS (HR 1.65 and 2.12, respectively).

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate and confirm that IIs, and in particular SII and ALRI, are easy to measure prognostic markers for patient candidates to first line chemotherapy plus Bev for mCRC.

The colon inflammatory index score can predict the survival outcome after resection of colorectal cancer: a retrospective multicentre study

PURPOSE

Many systemic inflammatory markers have been identified to be prognostic factors in various diseases, including colorectal cancer (CRC). The Colon Inflammatory Index (CII), which is based on the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), is reportedly a predictor of the outcome of chemotherapy in patients with metastatic CRC. This retrospective review study aimed to determine whether CII can predict the prognosis after surgical resection of CRC.

METHODS

A total of 1,273 patients who underwent CRC resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 799) and a validation cohort (n = 474). The impact of the preoperative CII score on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was assessed.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the CII score was good in 569 patients (71.2%), intermediate in 209 (26.2%), and poor in 21 (2.6%). There were significant between-group differences in body mass index, American Society of Anaesthesiologists physical status, and preoperative tumour markers. The 5-year OS rate was significantly lower in patients with an intermediate or poor CII score (CII risk) than in those with no CII risk (73.8% vs. 84.2%; p < 0.001, log-rank test). In multivariate analysis, CII risk remained a significant independent predictor of poor OS (hazard ratio 1.75; 95% confidence interval 1.18-2.60; p = 0.006). In the validation cohort, the 5-year OS rate was significantly lower in patients with CII risk than in those with no CII risk (82.8% vs. 88.4%; p = 0.046, log-rank test).

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that the CII can predict OS after resection of CRC.

The Prognostic Role of Baseline Eosinophils in HPV-Related Cancers: a Multi-institutional Analysis of Anal SCC and OPC Patients Treated with Radical CT-RT

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are rare tumors associated with HPV infection. Bioumoral predictors of response to chemoradiation (CT-RT) are lacking in these settings. With the aim to find new biomarkers, we investigated the role of eosinophils in both HPV-positive anal SCC and HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer (OPC).

METHODS

We retrieved clinical and laboratory data of patients with HPV-positive anal SCC treated with CT-RT in 5 institutions, and patients with locally advanced OPC SCC treated with CT-RT in 2 institutions. We examined the association between baseline eosinophil count (the best cutoff has been evaluated by ROC curve analysis: 100 × 10^9/L) and disease-free survival (DFS). Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios by baseline characteristics were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Three hundred four patients with HPV-positive anal SCCs and 168 patients with OPCs (122 HPV-positive, 46 HPV-negative diseases) were analyzed. In anal SCC, low eosinophil count (< 100 × 10^9/L) correlates to a better DFS (HR = 0.59; p = 0.0392); likewise, in HPV-positive OPC, low eosinophil count correlates to a better DFS (HR = 0.50; p = 0.0428). In HPV-negative OPC, low eosinophil count confers worse DFS compared to high eosinophil count (HR = 3.53; p = 0.0098). After adjustment for age and sex, eosinophils were confirmed to be independent prognostic factors for DFS (HR = 4.55; p = 0.0139).

CONCLUSION

Eosinophil count could be used as a prognostic factor in anal HPV-positive SCC. The worse prognosis showed in HPV-positive patients with high eosinophil count is likely to derive from an unfavorable interaction between the HPV-induced immunomodulation and eosinophils, which may hamper the curative effect of RT.

Colon inflammatory index as a useful prognostic marker after R0 resection in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis

Background

Although R0 resection for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) is a promising treatment with improved prognosis, the recurrence rate is still high. No prognostic markers have been reported after resection of CRLM. In this study, we investigated the association between inflammation-based score and prognosis after R0 resection in patients with CRLM.

Methods

We retrospectively investigated 90 patients who underwent R0 resection for CRLM between 2008 and 2018. We calculated colon inflammatory index (CII) (CII0, low risk; CII1, intermediate risk; and CII2, high risk), modified Glasgow prognostic score, prognostic nutritional index, and CRP-to-albumin ratio; and retrospectively assessed the relationship between these scores, the clinicopathological features, and prognosis.

Results

The median follow-up period was 44 months (range, 2–101 months). Five-year relapse-free survival (RFS) (CII2; 12.5%, CII1; 14.5%, CII0; 42.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (CII2; 32.4%, CII1; 25.4%, CII0; 57.7%) were significantly lower in the high CII groups (CII1–2) compared with the low CII group (CII0) (p = 0.021 and p = 0.006, respectively). CEA level was significantly higher in the high CII group than the low CII group (12.4 vs 7.3, p = 0.004). Multivariate analysis showed CII score as an independent predictor of RFS (hazard ratio 2.128, 95%CI 1.147–3.430, p = 0.015) and OS (hazard ratio 2.639, 95%CI 1.331–5.323, p = 0.005).

Conclusion

CII shows promise as a prognostic marker after R0 liver resection in patients with CRLM.

Prognostic impact of the preoperatory neutrophil/lymphocyte index on early surgical complications of patients with colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is found among those with greatest frequency and exponential increase worldwide, with high mortality rates, which are observed as increasing due to the postsurgical complications that come to present. Systemic inflammation participates in the development and progression of cancer; therefore, inflammatory and/or immunological response markers such as the neutrophil/lymphocyte index (NLI) can aid us in predicting the poor results of our interventions. The purpose of our study was to determine the impact of an NLI of ≥2.6 as a predictor of early postsurgical complications. By means of a prospective cohort, we analyzed 158 patients with CRC who were submitted to elective surgery with a later 30-day follow-up. We found that the preoperatory NLI of ≥2.6 obtained an odds ratio (OR) = 2.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-4.36) as a prognostic factor of early postsurgical complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification scale, which represents a low prognostic impact due to its predictive yield with low accuracy, which is the opposite of what other reports have previously published. The use of chemotherapy before the surgical procedure was also determined to be a risk factor for post-surgical complications.

Predictive factors of high comprehensive complication index in colorectal cancer patients using Enhanced Recovery After Surgery protocol: role as a safety net in early discharge

Purpose

This study was performed to evaluate complications using comprehensive complication index (CCI) in colorectal cancer patients with implementation of the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocol, and to investigate the predictive factors associated with high morbidity rates. It can be used as a safety net in determining the timing of discharge.

Methods

A total of 335 consecutive patients who underwent elective colorectal cancer surgery between January 2017 and December 2017 at a single tertiary center were enrolled. Postoperative complications were defined as occurring within 30 days after surgery. The predictive factor analysis for the high CCI group was also performed.

Results

In total, 116 patients experienced postoperative complications. Wound-related complications and postoperative ileus were the most common. The mean CCI for overall colorectal cancer surgery was 9.1 ± 16.7. Patients featuring low CCI (<26.2) were 297 (88.7%) and high CCI were 38 (11.3%). In multivariable analysis, obstructive colorectal cancer (odds ratio, 3.278; 95% confidence interval, 1.217–8.829; P = 0.019) and CRP value on postoperative day (POD) 3–4 (odds ratio, 1.152; 95% confidence interval, 1.036–1.280; P < 0.010) were significant predictors for high CCI.

Conclusion

The clinical usefulness of CCI in colorectal cancer patients with the ERAS protocol was verified, and it can be used for surgical quality control. More cautious care is needed and the timing of discharge should be carefully determined for patients with obstructive colorectal cancer or POD 3–4 CRP of ≥6.47 mg/dL.

Gustave Roussy Immune Score as a Novel Prognostic Scoring System for Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Aim

The Gustave Roussy Immune Score (GRIm-Score) was originally designed to select cancer patients for immunotherapy, and later was reported to be a novel prognostic scoring system in lung cancer and esophageal cancer. This study was aimed to determine the prognostic role and predictive performance of GRIm-Score in colorectal cancer (CRC) CRC patients.

Methods

We conducted a single-institution study of 1,579 adult CRC patients receiving surgical removal, and those patients were divided into low GRIm-Score group (scores 0, 1) and high GRIm-Score group (scores 2, 3). Propensity score matching (PSM) was executed to balance the potential confounding factors between the two groups. Survival and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (Td-ROC) analyses were applied to depict the prognostic role and predictive significance of GRIm-Score in CRC patients.

Results

There were 200 cases CRC patients in high GRIm-Score group and 1,379 cases in low GRIm-Score group. CRC patients with high GRIm-Score correspond with higher level of CEA, CA125, and inflammatory indexes, such as NLR, PLR, SII, PNI, and ALRI. Correlation analysis exhibited that GRIm-Score correlated well with the established inflammatory indexes. Survival analysis revealed that CRC patients in high GRIm-Score group showed worse overall survival (OS, P <0.0001) and disease-free survival (DFS, P <0.0001) compared with those in low GRIm-Score group. Results from multivariate Cox regression implicated that high GRIm-Score was not only a potent prognostic index for unfavorable OS (HR = 1.622, 95%CI: 1.118–2.355, P = 0.0109), but also a potent risk factor for worse DFS (HR = 1.743, 95%CI: 1.188–2.558, P = 0.0045). Td-ROC analysis demonstrated that GRIm-Score exhibited the superior discriminatory power in the prediction of OS and DFS when compared to SII, PNI, and ALRI. Such strong associations between high levels of preoperative GRIm-Score and unfavorable survival outcomes remained robust after PSM analysis.

Conclusion

GRIm-Score, a novel inflammatory and nutritional risk scoring system, is a potent prognostic index in CRC patients receiving surgical removal. GRIm-Score can be used as an effective and simplified risk stratification tool for postoperative survival prediction of CRC patients.

The role of the multi-inflammatory index as a novel inflammation-related index in the differential diagnosis of massive and non-massive pulmonary embolism

OBJECTIVE

Systemic inflammatory response and pro-coagulator factors are critical in acute pulmonary embolism. Recently, there is increasing evidence that the multi-inflammatory index (MII) may be prognostic in many clinical situations. The study investigated whether MII-1 and MII-2 can distinguish massive (MPE) and non-massive pulmonary embolism (NMPE).

METHODS

A total of 146 patients (73 MPE and 73 NMPE) were included in the study that was designed as a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Following haemogram analysis, MII-1 (platelet-to-lymphocyte x CRP) and MII-2 (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte x CRP) were calculated manually.

RESULTS

MII-1 and 2 showed a positive significant correlation with PLR and NLR, moderate positive correlation with CPR, and weak positive correlation with PAP (P < .001). CRP, MII-1, MII-2, PAP and systolic BP variables showed strong diagnostic value in distinguishing MPE and NMPE [AUC (SE): 0.816 (0.037), 0.811 (0.038), 0.810 (0.037), 0.870 (0.032) and 0.864 (0.032); respectively] (P < .001). MPR, MPV, RDW, and PLR in distinguishing MPE and NMPE groups did not show significance (P > .05).

CONCLUSION

Although MII-1 and MII-2 are simple, cheap, and easy indexes to calculate, they showed a strong ability to distinguish MPE and NMPE compared with the previously studied classical inflammatory indexes.

Laboratory Parameters are Possible Prognostic Markers in Patients with Advanced-stage NSCLC Treated with Bevacizumab plus Chemotherapy

Purpose: To investigate potential associations between selected laboratory markers (CRP, LDH, albumin, sodium, hemoglobin, neutrophils, and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio [NLR]) and outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with bevacizumab (BEV) plus chemotherapy.

Patients and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 105 patients with NSCLC from the Czech TULUNG registry treated at University Hospital in Pilsen with BEV + chemotherapy. Response to therapy was tested by Fisher's exact test. Survival statistics were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox analysis.

Results: We showed significantly better disease control rate when CRP, albumin, hemoglobin, and NLR were within established “normal” values. In univariate analysis, normal values of CRP, LDH, albumin, sodium, hemoglobin, neutrophils, and NLR were associated with better overall survival (OS). Normal values of CRP, albumin, hemoglobin, neutrophils, and NLR were associated also with better progression-free survival (PFS). In a multivariate Cox model, normal values of LDH, albumin, and NLR were associated with significantly better OS while normal CRP, albumin, and NLR were associated with better PFS.

Conclusions: LDH and sodium appear to be possible prognostic markers for BEV treatment in combination with chemotherapy in NSCLC. The parameters associated with inflammatory response (CRP, NLR, albumin, and possibly hemoglobin) appear to be promising predictive markers for this treatment combination.

Role of a Modified Urothelium Immune Prognostic Index in Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma Treated With Anti-PD-1/PD-L1-Based Therapy

Introduction: The use of antibodies against programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) and its ligand (PD-L1) has improved survival in metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) patients. However, reliable and convenient biomarkers of early responses and outcomes are still lacking.

Materials and Methods: We retrospectively screened mUC patients who received anti–PD-1/PD-L1–based therapy at our institute. A modified urothelium immune prognostic index (mUIPI) based on the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was developed to characterize the three groups as good, intermediate, and poor mUIPI. Major observations were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and disease control rate (DCR).

Results: We identified 52 mUC patients with a median follow-up time of 29.8 months (95% CI, 26.3–53.2). Low NLR was with improved PFS and OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.40, 95% CI, 0.18–0.92; HR, 0.27, 95% CI, 0.11–0.69, respectively). Normal LDH was associated with improved PFS but not OS (HR, 0.22, 95% CI, 0.10–0.52; HR, 0.86, 95% CI, 0.34–2.13, respectively). The median PFS for the poor, intermediate, and good mUIPI groups was 1.97 months (95% CI, 1.15 to NR), 3.48 months (95% CI, 1.58 to NR), and 14.52 months (95% CI, 5.75 to NR), respectively (p < 0.001). The median OS for the poor, intermediate, and good mUIPI was 12.82, 18.11, and 34.87 months, respectively (p = 0.28). A good mUIPI was associated with a higher DCR compared to intermediate and poor mUIPI (odds ratio [OR] 7.58, 95% CI, 1.73–43.69; OR, 6.49, 95% CI, 0.14–295.42, respectively). In the subgroup analysis, a good mUIPI was associated with improved PFS in the subgroups of male patients and patients with low urinary tract primary tumors, liver metastases, non–first-line treatment, and monotherapy.

Conclusions: mUIPI predicts early responses in mUC patients who received anti–PD-1/PD-L1–based therapy.

LDH, CRP and ALB predict nucleic acid turn negative within 14 days in symptomatic patients with COVID-19

AIMS

To search for biochemical indicators that can identify symptomatic patients with COVID-19 whose nucleic acid could turn negative within 14 days, and assess the prognostic value of these biochemical indicators in patients with COVID-19.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We collected the clinical data of patients with COVID-19 admitted to our hospital, by using logistic regression analysis and AUC curves, explored the relationship between biochemical indicators and nucleic acid positive duration, the severity of COVID-19, and hospital stay respectively.

RESULTS

A total of two hundred and thirty-three patients with COVID-19 were enrolled in the study. We found patients whose nucleic acid turned negative within 14 days had lower LDH, CRP and higher ALB (P < 0.05). ROC curve results indicated that lower LDH, TP, CRP and higher ALB predicted the nucleic acid of patients turned negative within 14 days with statistical significance(P < 0.05), AST, LDH, CRP and PCT predicted the severe COVID-19 with statistical significance, and CRP predicted hospital stay >31days with statistical significance (P < 0.05). After verification, the probability of nucleic acid turning negative within 14 days in patients with low LDH (<256 U/L), CRP (<44.5 mg/L) and high ALB (>35.8 g/L) was about 4 times higher than that in patients with high LDH, CRP and low ALB (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

LDH, CRP and ALB are useful prognostic marker for predicting nucleic acid turn negative within 14 days in symptomatic patients with COVID-19.

Predictive Value of Routine Blood Test in patients with Early Esophageal Cancer: A Matched Case-Control Study

Aims: The present study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of routine blood test as potential inflammatory markers in early esophageal cancer (EEC) patients.

Methods: A matched case-control study was conducted by recruiting 314 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with EEC and then underwent Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection (ESD) from July 2015 to July 2019 in First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. Each EEC patient was matched against one healthy control on the criteria of gender, and age (±2 years). Additionally, a total of 40 subjects (20 cases and 20 controls) were also included in the validation set. Statistical analysis of selected hematological parameters was performed between the two groups. The correlation between preoperative blood indexes and clinicopathological characteristics after ESD in EEC patients were further assessed.

Results: Mono-factor analysis showed that the index of monocyte (p<0.001), MCV (p=0.018), MCH (p=0.01), MPV (p=0.022), PT (p=0.003), PT-INR (p=0.003), PDW (p<0.001) and MLR (p<0.001) were statistically significant in EEC patients when compared with those in healthy controls. Multivariate logistic regression analysis further identified that PDW and MLR was independently associated with the risk of early esophageal cancer (both p<0.001). The higher level of NLR (P=0.007) and MLR (P=0.015) were statistically significant with submucosal invasion in EEC patients and the level of MLR were significantly associated with larger tumor size (P=0.030). The results of the validation group were in consistence with the primary group.

Conclusions: Hematological parameters of MLR and PDW can be used as an adjuvant tool for the diagnosis of EEC. Moreover, the value of MLR can reflect the invasion depth index.

The Prognostic Role of Early Skeletal Muscle Mass Depletion in Multimodality Management of Patients with Advanced Gastric Cancer Treated with First Line Chemotherapy: A Pilot Experience from Modena Cancer Center

Background: Few data about the link between nutritional status and survival are available in the metastatic gastric cancer (GC) setting. The aim of this work was to evaluate the prognostic role of tissue modifications during treatment and the benefit of a scheduled nutritional assessment in this setting. Methods: Clinical and laboratory variables of 40 metastatic GC patients treated at Modena Cancer Center were retrieved: 20 received a nutritional assessment on the oncology’s discretion, the other 20 received a scheduled nutritional assessment at baseline and every 2–4 weeks. Anthropometric parameters were calculated on Computed Tomography (CT) images at the baseline and after 3 months of chemotherapy. Results: A correlation between baseline Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS), Lymphocyte to Monocyte Ratio (LMR), C-reactive protein (PCR), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) and Overall survival (OS) was highlighted. Among the anthropometric parameters, early skeletal muscle mass depletion (ESMMD) >10% in the first months of treatment significantly impacted on mOS (p = 0.0023). A link between ESMMD and baseline LDH > 460 U/L, baseline CRP > 2.2 mg/dL and weight decrease during treatment emerged. Patients evaluated with a nutritional scheduled support experienced a mean gain in subcutaneous and visceral fat of 11.4% and 10.21%, respectively. Conclusion: We confirm the prognostic impact of ESMMD > 10% during chemotherapy in metastatic GC. The prognostic role of a scheduled nutritional assessment deserves further confirmation in large prospective trials.

Prognostic role of a new index (multi inflammatory index) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: results from the randomized ITACa trial

Aims

We created a new index (Multi Inflammatory Index, MII) composed of an inflammatory index [neutrophil-to lymphocyte-ratio (NLR): MII-1; platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR): MII-2; or systemic immune-inflammation index (SII): MII-3] and C-reactive protein (CRP). Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic and/or predictive capacity of the MII in the randomized ITACa (Italian Trial in Advanced Colorectal Cancer) study on patients with metastatic colorectal cancer undergoing first-line chemotherapy.

Methods

Between November 2007 and March 2012, baseline NLR, PLR; SII and CRP were available for 131 patients, 66 receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab and 65 receiving chemotherapy alone.

Results

Patients with low (<25) MII-1 levels had a better outcome than those with high (⩾25) levels: median progression-free survival (PFS) was 12.4 versus 8.9 months [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.51, p = 0.003] and median overall survival (OS) was 30.9 months versus 15.0 months (HR = 2.05, 95% CI 1.40-3.02, p = 0.0002), respectively. Similar results were obtained for patients with low (<1424) MII-2 levels compared with those with high (⩾1424) levels: median PFS was 12.6 versus 8.9 months (HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.35-2.82, p = 0.0004) and median OS was 32.4 versus 14.6 months, respectively (HR = 2.42, 95% CI 1.64-3.57, p < 0.0001). Patients with low (<6068) MII-3 levels had a longer median PFS and OS than those with high (⩾6068) levels: 12.6 versus 8.9 months (HR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.33-2.76, p = 0.005) and 30.9 versus15.0 months (HR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.43-3.09, p = 0.0002), respectively. Following adjustment for clinical covariates, multivariate analysis confirmed all MII indexes as independent prognostic factors for predicting PFS and OS.

Conclusion

All MII indexes appear to be useful as prognostic markers.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01878422 (registration date: 07/06/2013) https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01878422.

Utility of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to identify long-term survivors among HCC patients treated with sorafenib

Sorafenib is the first multikinase inhibitor demonstrating a survival benefit for patients suffering from advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, 1 issue remains open: what is the factor able to predict which patients will be long survivors?In the present study, we harnessed the potential of conditional survival, aiming at estimating the probability that a patient receiving sorafenib survives for more than 3 years.The present multicentric study was conducted on a cohort of 438 HCC patients. The primary end point was conditional overall survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate conditional overall survival probabilities at 3 years.The 3-year conditional survival of patients without disease progression highlights that NLR and ECOG are the factors that most accurately predict the probability of long survival. The 3-year conditional survival of patients with disease progression showed a medium effect size for HCV status, alpha-fetoprotein and NLR at all time-points. Macro-vascular portal vein invasion, extra hepatic disease, and BCLC we have a large effect size at 6 months and a medium effect size at 12 and 24 months.Our findings support the use of baseline NLR for the identification of patients with a higher probability of long-survival. NLR should be used as a stratification factor in the forthcoming clinical trials on the drugs for the advanced HCC now in pipeline.